Collapse Cafe 8/23/2015: TSHTF Part 1 Energy

Discuss this Vidcast at the Diner TV Lounge inside the Diner

Audio Only Podcast:

gc2Well, we certainly timed this Vidcast well! 🙂

It's a marathon between the 3 parts we got recorded, we skipped over Part 3 to record at a later date on Climate & Geopolitics.  Part 1 here focuses on Energy, Part 2 on Economics and Part 4 is Futurology, doing the Cassandra and Nostradamus thing.

I will Feature Part 2 on Thursday and Part 3 next Sunday, however all 3 parts are currently up on the Collapse Cafe You Tube Channel.

Thanks to all the participants, Nicole Foss, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum, Tom Lewis, Norman Pagett, Ugo Bardi & my co-host Monsta.

RE

19 Responses to Collapse Cafe 8/23/2015: TSHTF Part 1 Energy

  • Mountain Hiker says:

    Thanks for the enjoyable listening material. I appreciate your time and effort in doing this.

    However, I do have one comment about the material covered. Nicole mentioned that people with debt are signing up for indentured servitude in the future. I would venture that's a 50/50 chance at best. Part of this whole collapse is that large organizations will struggle to operate. I believe this was mentioned in part 3 where Nicole talked about small town sized municipalities being about the largest functioning government. Unless corporations figure out how to exist at larger levels themselves, I doubt anyone will care who owed what 3 years ago once TSHTF. Sure, there may be a short period where the money power tries to make some examples with indentured servants, but the huge numbers of people with debt will require a lot of resources to round up and indenture. Who's to say people even still show up at the huge corporations to go hassle others for their debts if the money's all toilet paper any way? The variables are so vast that trying to predict how this all turns out overcomes my mental capacity.

    Anyway, that's just something I started to chew on after listening, likely due to my own debt load. Thanks for the chewing material. I look forward to Part 3.

    • K Dog says:

      "I doubt anyone will care who owed what 3 years ago once TSHTF."

      The problem with this kind of ludicrous thinking is it deny's reality.  Events of a collapse nature will happen and society will not be quick to give up money.  It may not be worth as much; in fact it certainly must buy far less but buy it will.  Those with an average I.Q., most of whom will still not get that the world is collapsing will not suddenly stand in unison and chant

      "De chacun selon ses facultés, à chacun selon ses besoins".  Human nature will not allow it and it will remain instead  'From each according to their poverty, to each according to their affluence.'

      I've often been as deluded as Mountain Hiker.  The delusion comes from imagining the world behaving as you'd like it too and really good weed can also make you think about rainbows, butterflies and ponies for all.  For as Mountain Hiker says:

      "Anyway, that's just something I started to chew on after listening, likely due to my own debt load."

      The legend was in his mind as his insightful honesty shows.

      If everyone embraced "De chacun selon ses facultés, à chacun selon ses besoins" the world would not collapse.  Collapse would be impossible because everybody would suddenly be concerned about their fellow man and everybody else.  Energy use would suddenly drop to a minimum.  A sustainable future would embrace "De chacun selon ses facultés, à chacun selon ses besoins".  It would have too, but a sustainable future we will not have.  Instead death and extinction awaits.  That people scoff at this possibility outside the Doomstead gate makes that future a certainty.

       

      • Mountain Hiker says:

        Get over yourself Kdog. You have no better clue about what awaits us all than anybody else who is well read on the subject. I have no delusions about the possible shit storm ahead. I have no faith in the decency of humanity, as your arrogant, self-important response has shown. However, I would venture I am as capable, and likely more capable, than the great Kdog at surviving through hard times and defending myself where needed.

        It also appears that you are the one who suffers from your own delusions. You apparently think all will change, yet this part about money will exist with a few changes. And, big banks will still be able to extract the wealth as easily as they do today. It may end up that way, it may not. Consider taking your own advice about taking your own beliefs and preconceptions into the future oh great one.

        You do have me thinking though…I wonder how well pompous, arrogant asses who think they have everything figured out will fare in the times ahead? Skills beyond sanctimony might serve you well.

        • K-Dog says:

          Yes you will be more capable of managing the future than I. You are more well read and emotionally stable than I.

          I am a worthless arrogant prick.

          Sorry you did not with your superior intelligence understand what I was saying. The fault is mine for not clearly expressing myself.

          Do you feel better now or do I need to go on.

          • Mountain Hiker says:

            You have no agency over how I feel so I do not care what you do. Good luck getting over that big hang up you seem to have concerning IQs and intellect.

          • Mountain Hiker says:

            Actually, my appologies for my lashing out at you kdog. Much non-collapse related stress lately. I took your initial post as an attack. That's what I get for posting here after posting at Zero hedge's troll filled message boards. I am tired of such banter on message boards.  Again I am sorry. Honestly.

          • K Dog says:

            Mountain Hiker,

            I'm sorry you took my initial post as an attack.  It was not meant to be.  I too came on strong by using the word 'ludicrous' in critiquing your statement that you doubted that anyone will care who owed what 3 years ago once TSHTF.  I chose that word because I had a point to make.  Had I known it would offend you much I'd have chosen a different word.  I'd have made a different kind of comment.

            Consider the Titanic sinking being analogous to T.S. Hitting T.F..  Third class, the equivalent of people who owe a large mortgage now were locked below decks (as far as I know) when the boat deep sixed.  Those who had money and status were at least free to walk the decks in their final minutes if their social standing did not rate high enough to merit a lifeboat.

            The point I am making is that even though all was lost social standing still mattered.  Only when times are very good are social class rules ever relaxed.  When Shit Hits The Fan relative social standing may well matter far more than it does now.  How else would scarce resources be distributed.  Certainly not by distributing everything equally in a democratic fashion.  That is not going to happen.  Rules will be made so that those with more social standing get more goodies than others and the difference might mean life to the fortunate and death to everyone else.

            Apology accepted and I hope your non-collapse related stress mitigates.  Zero Hedge is full of trolls so I don't comment there at all.  Please accept my apology for making you feel like you were commenting on Zero Hedge.  That place can be so acerbic that I think the 'trolling' there is organized by an entity that wants to suppress discussion of points of view which are not mainstream.  There are some who think suppressing the rabble is a matter of national security but that's a story for another day.  You and me both being in the rabble.

            I'll try and be more sensitive on how my posts might be received when I'm responding to another's comment in the future.

          • RE says:

            Smooochy Smoochy, Kiss and Make Up.

            Diners are such Sensitive Doomers.

            RE

          • Mountain Hiker says:

            Leaving a place of flying fist I walk into another place to see another arm extended. While I still see a flying fist, it's actually an arm extended in a friendly handshake or a lift from the ground. I should know the difference, but perception is sometimes slow for this old dog anymore after encountering so much anger and reality resistance in this world. No need to change your word choices or your presentation Kdog. Sometimes a person needs a smack upside the head to wake them up. Thank you for the lesson. Sorry for any bruises you received in the teaching.

            Concerning RE's comment about Diners being sensitive, I believe we are. I am convinced those of us who tuned into the whole peak oil, financial and industrial collapse reality in the early phases are quite sensitive people. We are like a Jedi attuned to the Force or Grandfather from the Tom Brown Tracker series attuned to nature. That's why we can sense the "disturbances in the Force" and try to understand what we are perceiving. For the most part we have tough skin for we likely have spent our lifetimes guarding ourselves from the countless crass bullies comprising much of the populace. However, at times the incoming energy overwhelms the shield we have built and smacks us right on the face.

            Along that line of thought, it sure seems like this summer has been a time of building tension for those who are attuned. The past 10 days to 2 weeks have seemed almost overwhelming from all of the disturbances in the Force. The bad news is, this is just getting a good start. Good luck to all Diners in dealing with it.

  • p01 says:

    Hollywood deflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKz3mrd-rGI

    Real deflation: watch Romania (google it, see photos of it, google street views of the "productive facilities"), the greatest powerhouse of the East, fueled by external credit, no internal credit bubble, not because of not trying. No one trusted in internal credit. Then re-evaluate your dogmas.

    Read the Origins of Cultures, and the Riddles of Cultures. For people claiming to have beens studying the collapse for years, you bunch sure are utterly clueless and unable to think outside the box. The Story and the Promises we make to each others are the driver. Nicole is closest to the truth, although she still believes in "productive economy".

    Best of luck to us all, no matter the beliefs,

    Paul

     

     

  • Scythe of Relief says:

    Howdy, and thank you all for this talkfest.

    I to wanted a bit more elaboration on the 'indentured servitude' debt slavery from Nicole. How are the banks going to do mass foreclosures on people? The bankstes may look a little bit impotent hanging from lamp posts. lol.

    I have also heard Nicole say. That the banks could be inclined to foreclose on people with small amounts of debt on their house first, because there is more in it for them. If this is the case, you may be better taking out your extra money in your mortgage (if you have it) and keep it in cash. And can you see people banding together to stop evictions in their communies?

    If you have debt, it may be better for you if there is a fast crash to take the banksters out. Or hope for a big backlash against them, so we can have debt jubilees or something. I think it maybe too late to get out of debt.

    You are all good people, and you are doing your best. And good luck to you RE. All the best mate.

    Cheers  

     

     

    • RE says:

      I to wanted a bit more elaboration on the 'indentured servitude' debt slavery from Nicole. How are the banks going to do mass foreclosures on people?

      I'll pass this comment on to Nicole, perhaps she will drop in with a response.

      RE

    • Mountain Hiker says:

      That's essentially my question from above that devolved quickly, likely due to my own irritability these days. The only possible outcome is collapse from here, the path to that end has many options, some of which we cannot even see at this point.

  • tagio says:

    RE and Monsta, thanks for putting this together and many, many thanks to all the participants.  This was a fantastic panel and everyone did a great job.  Steve's rant at the end of the first "episode" was epic.  Nicole was great as usual.  Her days "out in the wilderness" trying to explain collapse to a complacent humanity has honed her communication skills and distilled her arguments and presentation to the essence.  I am so glad she is once again contributing to the internet-based doom-o-sphere. 

    Gail's comments were great as usual and and her concern and sense of urgency about financial collapse were palpable.  She is really worried.  Norman's comments were to the point and pithy, and he has so much history in his grasp.  I really appreciated Tom's points about the political dimension of our problems and points about the majors who are in liquidation mode.   All these stock buybacks are essentially undeclared, stealth liquidation (stealth because if the companies told people their business was in collapse and they were liquidating, the value of the shares would fall dramatically). The companies load up on debt from suckers who don't see the handwriting on the wall, redeem their shares from insiders and those in the know (e.g., "activist" shareholders like Icahn who insist on being bougth out) at top value with borrowed money, and leave the companies loaded with debt that will never be repaid.

    RE, I appreciate that you introduced the subject or question of reversion to a slave-labor based civilization.   That led to a really interesting discussion.  I think the point of slave labor was missed, though, which is that it is a system that allows the owners to harvest as much surplus production as possible by keeping the slaves at a subsistence level.  No or precious little "disposable income" for them, slave societies are not consumer cultures.  The value of the slaves' production is hoovered up by the "1 percent,"  and the mass of people are treated or viewed as a "infinite" or perpetual resource, like the air.  "The poor you will always have with you."  The difference between that and our current system, which has also transtioned since the 1970s, to hoovering up all surplus for the 1%, gradually transitioning most of the workforce to a subsistence level and leaving them with ever declining disposable income, is, of course, that workers are not currently owned, but are just part of a large pool of "free agents" (in the sports team sense).   "Ownership" is one system for allocating the costs and responsibilities for a workforce.  Other models are available that are less extreme, such as feudalism, apprenticeship and short-term indentured servitude.  Right now we are free agents (in the sports team sense) because the government is responsible for basic maintenance of the labor pool, through welfare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, social security and medicare.  This safety net will eventually collapse leaving no real support.  I think that Nicole was saying is that there is little danger that we will revert to slavery in the short or medium term because we have so very many people,that people are worth less than slaves.  They can be used up without regard to any concern for their basic subsistence, there's 10 more where the one who is needed came from. 

    My one suggestion, if you can pull it off, is to try to add a 20 or 30-something on the panel, to get the perspective of those who will really be dealing with this long after use aging boomers are gone.

    Thanks again to all.

  • K Dog says:

    A whole lot of people are going to be having a hard time getting by.  The panel may understand, but people in their frustration are going to blame someone.  The troubles resulting may prevent meaningful mitigating activity.  That will cause death.  Everything is going to go green, there is no choice in the matter.  This is what I mean. The world is changing and with deflation happening everyone will be taken by suprise. Life under the big top will be real life.

    Gardening by cellphone is in your future.  Loved the hangout voting thing.  Steves rant took the show but the segment on coal by Tom was good. 

  • Ken Barrows says:

    Why didn't Ugo Bardi get to speak?  (Or did I miss something?)

  • kesar says:

    I can't find 3rd part of this Collapse Cafe. I see 1, 2 and 4 on YT.

    Can you post a link to the 3rd one, pls?

    Thanks, great work!

  • kesar says:

    Sorry, skip the above. It was explained in part 4.

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