End of More: Norman Pagett: Part 3

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Aired on the Doomstead Diner on September 3, 2015

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End_of_More

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Part 1

Part 2

Here is a summary of what was covered in this podcast:

(summary by Monsta)

  • Population overshoot in Saudi Arabia.
  • Impact of lower oil production in the country.
  • Potential for nuclear warfare.
  • Issue of ballistic missiles particularly in the destruction of high value/status assets such as aircraft carriers.
  • Impact of middle-east turmoil on oil importer nations which will lead to demand destruction and recession. Over time these problems will work its way from the periphery to the centre of credit creating nations such as Germany, UK and the United States.
  • Crisis of migration once energy declines in countries such as Italy, Greece etc.
  • How will societies cope with population collapse?
  • Expectations and the problems of alternative labour such as horse replacements for truck delivery detailing the biomass problem which is a zero sum game.

For the rest, LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW!

7 Responses to End of More: Norman Pagett: Part 3

  • Etyerepetyere says:

    The Saudis have more oil and energy than the russians so why not the Saudis are creating reserve currency ? They have more physical backing in energy content than the russian by that measure .. The way it is Nobody else has individually enough energy reserves to create reserve currency the least the chinese things will stay with the dollar until the end of the oil paradigm . On the other hand America will defend the saudis and when the country cant be defended they will sacrifice them and just to secure the oil there for their own benefit . America will be by any means the last one still operating in the oil paradigm by than everywhere else where there is no oil left or who don't have it are going thru the dieoff being caused by the energy shortfall . Except there is a nuclear exchange as a last resort when some places have nothing left to loose . Which is plausible since it is hard to imagine that whole countries will lay down peacefully and die . And than the scenario of cataclysmic environmental calamity and a few more scenarios . The planet can go to shits . And than how about cosmic and geological occurrences a supernova exploding in the galactic neighborhood  a gravity wave an EMP, a supervolcano exploding .. what else ? a cosmic superwave , The scenarios are endless and they can happen tomorrow today , In the next minute  .Or you can drop individually dead  in the next moment hapenns all the time to people . As Jim Morrison in the Doors Song "Roadhouse Blues " says "The future is uncertain and the end is always near "  Why worry ? 

    • Why worry ?

      It is the nature of human intelligence to worry. Human intelligence was the internalization of natural selection. Of course there is a long list of natural selection pressures, which are infinitely bigger than human beings. However, for most human beings most of the time, the pressures from other human beings are the most important, and so, the resulting artificial selection systems are the most important, and therefore, what they worry about.

      Human beings build mental models of their world, with models of themselves inside of those models of their world. To the degree that they have the intelligence and information, they are able to be "dreaming with data." They learn that some events are associated with pain, which they then tend to avoid. They worry about that, as well as worry about the converse.

      More effective worrying appears to be one goal. However, not to worry at all would require not telling one's self any stories whatsoever. It may make more sense not to worry about things one can not change, than things one could change. However, the most difficult issues are those which are right on the edge, especially those which possibly could be changed, IF, but only IF, enough other people also agreed to change.

  • Etyerepetyere says:

    As i have said . All your hyphotetlical projections can be made invalid by an at this point (yet) unfathomable event … Get a load of this .. How about the spacetimecontinuum being cancelled out . The universe jumped into existence some 14 B Y ago for no reason out of nothing in an instant this shit can turn around and go back to nothing in the next instant .. Will this give you some sleepless nights ?! Oh my apologies  i didnt mean to give you sleepless nights .  If there is anything what could happen from one moment to next is this . Why are you not worriing about this than  ? !  All this endless yammering about the environment the economy what else the co2 whatnot it is all a slow going … i am bored to death .. Ah another threat .. being bored to death …. at least there is DMT you can take to counteract but that will give you death by astonishment  than you are dead again .. it seems there is no escape … You see thats your problem you are trying for eternity you are trying to survive to propagate because you think you are important you are representing something special which has to survive … good luck with that 

  • Artfarce says:

    Another great interview. Just prior to you putting this one up I had a bit of an epiphany regarding oil consumption. There is a reservoir in the county where I live – not that far from where Norman Pagett lives, as it happens – which wikipedia says holds four billion gallons of water. Daily global oil consumption is somewhere over ninety million barrels. If we round it up to a hundred million barrels a day and assume forty gallons per barrel, that means the world consumes roughly the equivalent amount of oil per day as water in this reservoir; four billion gallons. This is staggering to me. This is a pretty vast body of water covering eight hundred acres. Was there once more oil than fresh water in the world? Just how tapped out are we at this point? Can someone with a greater mathematical prowess than mine put a timeline on depletion? 

    • RE says:

      Probably the best person to put that question to is Ron Patterson on PeakOilBarrel.  He tracks the stats pretty completely.

      RE

    • endofmore says:

      Hard to say about volumes of fresh water—given that all the water that has ever been on the Earth is still here—it just moves between states of saltwater, fresh water, frozen water and water vapour through different times in the Earth's history. (or even day by day)

      Eight hundred acres (guessing you're talking about the underground aquifer near Atcham?) is a drop in the bucket compared to the Ogalla in the USA which covers a swathe right through the midwestern states, —and is still being rapidly depleted through over use. (to produce food)

      Oil on the other hand has been the result of a production process: Sun, to decomposed biological matter, via heat and compression and time, into oil coal and gas that exists today.

      I think the most important factor in oil consumption is that 1 billion barrels of oil is less than  3 weeks of world consumption. The crunch will come, not through lack of oil but by fighting over what's left, ensuring that no one will get anywhere near enough to sustain the industrial infrastructure we have come to rely on.

      the amount of oil we have left is open to debate, (around 1.3 Trn barrels–depend on the source you refer to) but not by more than 10 years either way, though BP offers a time of 53.3 years

      http://gas2.org/2014/07/03/bp-estimates-world-just-53-3-years-oil-left/

      without realising the unintended joke that the oil will run out in March 2068—it certainly isn't infinite. Putting such nonsense aside, a  pretty good guess would be less than 40 years of readily available oil. At that point we are likely to only be getting about 15 Mbd, which is less than a quarter of what we are currently using. At that level, refineries are not viable on the global scale necessary to run our economy.

      Renewable energy cannot possibly make up the 75% shortfall, so I leave it to your imagination to think what an energy-collapsed society (not depleted—collapsed) will look like in maybe less than 30 years time. People have always fought over resources, oil will bring the bitterest battles of all, because antagonists will be fighting for their lives.

      • Artfarce says:

        The reservoir in question is called Blithfield, here in the UK. It struck me it was just about exactly equal in volume to the world's daily oil consumption. I've read all the data about remaining reserves, and am aware of EROEI and that we're supposedly right on the verge of dropping off Hubbert's peak, but I'd never quite visualised what 90 odd million barrels of oil a day might look like. Quite an eye opener. 

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