A Human Tsunami of Overshoot

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Aired on the Doomstead Diner on November 13, 2015



Discuss this Rant at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

By now, everyone who follows the Collapse blogs knows about the escalating Refugee crisis in Europe, as desperate Syrians and Afghanis attempt to escape War Zones for a new life in the Promised Lands of Sweden and Germany.

Already, with barely the first ripple of this wave rolling in, communities from Kos & Lesbos in the Greek Islands right up to the border between Mother Russia and Norway north of Murmansk and north of the Arctic Circle are being overwhelmed by a HUMAN WAVE.

To date, only a few hundred thousand have begun the migration to GTFO of Dodge before it is too late, but for most it is already too late.  The Borders are closing and the local populations becoming less accepting by the day of the thousands crossing their borders looking just for a meal to eat and peace in their lives.  They are sacrificing everything they have, all they have ever known for the chance to make it to the Promised Land.  They have NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE.  They know they are dead if they stay where they lay.  So move they will, en masse here.

For those on the receiving end, they have EVERYTHING TO LOSE.  Their peaceful lives to begin with, but eventually an existential battle for survival.

This year to date in the Refugee Crisis is not the End of it.  It is not even the Beginning of the End.  It is only the End of the Beginning.  Thank you once again Winston Churchill.

If you like Happy Endings, don't listen to this rant.  It will not make you happy.




Even if they had food enough, they don't have the infrastructure necessary to handle so many coming in at once. The Finns are talking about using Conex shipping containers for housing refugees this witer in Finland, one hopes with some insulation added and a wood pellet stove for heating. However, what are they using for Toilet facilities in these instant ghetto communities? What is the water supply for the community? Who is hauling out the solid waste of water bottles and MRE cans and paper plates and plastic forks and spoons? Who pays for all of this and with what working money?

This crisis is already here, even without a global food deficit, and it is not going to get any better next year. Measures will be taken to try and close off borders, which will become increasingly harder to enforce and increasingly more violent. Refugee camps will be attacked and set on fire, as has already occurred in Sweden. There will be pileups of refugees in countries with very porous borders like Turkey, which again is already beyond capacity for handling the flow. It's a Human Tsunami of Overshoot, and the Wave hasn't even crested yet…


9 Responses to A Human Tsunami of Overshoot

  • Joe D says:

    Thank RE. I've said many times before, your audio rants are my favorite part of the Diner experience.

    As you say it, the "math" is quite clear…fucked up water cycle (droughts, floods, storms) = fucked up food growing = millions of desperate and dying people on the move = really bad shit.  And yet, so few of us have thought it through, taken it to heart, and used it to motivate action.  What action?  ANY FUCKING ACTION besides the same shit they did yesterday.

    I don't think I can build a sufficient community – but I'm trying to build alliances.

    I don't think I can grow/forage/hunt enough calories for my family – but I've started planting and learning to cultivate my land.

    I don't think I can defend my home against the zombie hordes – but I continue to stock steel for that very time.

    My point is, even though the odds are pretty fucking bad, I'm trying.  But why isn't everyone preparing for the inevitable?  I recognize there is no certainty about the future but there are higher and lower probable outcomes.  50 years ago is was reasonable for a new parent in America to start saving for their child's education the day that child was born because it was PROBABLE that the future would closely resemeble the recent past.  Today it is foolish to follow that path because it is UNLIKELY that the future will closely resemble the recent past.

    What really puzzles me is that most people are willing to buy various types of insurance – even though they don't expect the worst thing to happen.  People grasp that it's good to have home owners insurance even though you don't expect your house to burn down.  But when it comes to preparing for civil disorder and social chaos resulting from environmental decay and economic distress, people seem unable to act.  Preppers are still labeled as fringe and anomolous. Why is this? 

    I suppose the question is rhetorical because I think I know the answer.  A large number of people are stupid and clueless.  Another large group are so engaged in the existing meme that they cannot see beyond it.  Then there are those who may know but are too afraid or embarrassed to act. 

    One other note, I appreciate that you always contemplate the timing of these matters and honestly struggle with the challenge of knowing when the SHTF.  I think for people like me, trying to keep one foot in the BAU world and one foot in the collaspe world, the ENTIRE GAME is about timing.  And one consideration I take into account are the earth's longer cycles, e.g. El Nino, when predicting steep declines.  Just like the annual seasonal cycle has a major impact on food and water supplies, the longer global climate cycles like el nino act as a step function in observing major downward revisions in the macro analysis.  Higher temperatures, more fires, worse droughts, floods and storms are obviously correlated with el nino and that cycle tends to be about 7 to 10 years.  So, we keep sliding toward the abyss during the intervening years and then fall dramatically during the peaks.  You figure we will lose arctic ice in the summer between this el nino and the next and we'll also be north of 410 CO2 ppm and 1.3 degrees C above preindustrial.  For me this step function every few years gets really, really bad 2 or 3 cycles down the road.

    • RE says:

      Priority wise, I think the period of Civil Disorder we are going into trumps the Climate Change issues.  It's more immediate and escalating rapidly.  All the college campus shootings, the migration problem in Europe and now the Paris Massacres.  There is already Martial Law in France, and all it will take is one terrorist attack over here and we will have Martial Law also.  I'm doing some chats with the gang over the next couple of weekends on the prioritization problem

      On all fronts now though, it has officially begun.  This is no longer theoretical Doomerism.  Doom has arrived.


  • I agreed with the comment and reply previously posted.

    I added the link to this rant inside the context of reply to

    a classic "normalicy bias" prediction ABOUT SYSTEMS:

    "Every person alive now and born in the next century

    is going to live and die under the existing system …"

    That was posted as a comment under this Zero Hedger:

    If We Don't Change The Way Money Is Created and Distributed, Inequality Will Trigger Social Disorder

    I think one is being unreasonably optimistic regarding the view that young people will live and die under the existing systems, since WE ARE ALREADY IN THE TWILIGHT ZONE, regarding the degree to which the excessive successfulness of the banksters controlling civilization has resulted in that civilization becoming criminally insane with respect to the longer term consequences of what it was really doing. My opinion is that, within a few decades, the exponential growth of the established systems will be running into real limits, that those systems will not be able to cope with.

    A Human Tsunami of Overshoot

    Within that context, that article above was yet another superficially correct analysis from Hugh-Smith. The deeper problems are that civilization necessarily operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime. The banksters are currently the best organized gangsters, that effectively control governments, which are the biggest forms of organized crime.


    Any different monetary system would have to have a different murder system to back that up. The deeper problems are that the debt controls have always been backed by the death controls, while the death controls were always the most socially successful when done through the maximum possible deceits and treacheries, which was how and why we ended up with the currently established systems, where governments ENFORCE FRAUDS by privately controlled banks, through their POLITICAL FUNDING.

    The currently established systems operate as Hugh-Smith described, EXCEPT WAY WORSE, because "money" made out of nothing has "paid" for strip-mining the planet's natural resources. Given those background underlying situations, where civilization was built on the basis of being able to make "money" out of nothing as debts, in order to "pay" for strip-mining the planet, the real limits to those systems were being approached at exponential rates, and those are just beginning to manifest as diminishing returns, which are manifesting first and foremost through their effects within the fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems.

    The currently established systems have NO ways to sanely adapt to no longer being able to continue growing at an exponential rate. Rather, they have already seriously overshot whatever might have been relatively sustainable. While older, richer people, who live towards the center and top of the established social pyramid systems, may well reasonably expect the established systems to last throughout the rest of their life span, the younger, poorer people do not have any reasonable expectations of that being possible for them.

    Everyone who was making "money" was making a living inside of systems that were based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, so that they were always actually living inside the TWILIGHT ZONE, because the ability to back up lies with violence never stops those lies from still being false. What was built by civilization was systems of organized lies operating robberies, that were able to grow at exponential rates, given a fresh planet that had never been raped and plundered before by the technologies developed by exponential progress in science.

    The ONLY thing that civilization actually does is operate as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, which must have that environmental energy in order to operate. Since civilization was systems of more or less organized lies operating robberies, it developed extraordinary elaborate bullshit regarding itself doing that. The currently existing monetary and taxation systems are fundamentally FRAUDS, which are symbolic robberies. However, those are publicly presented as being the opposite of what they really are.

    Many of the mainstream morons are playing devil's advocate by presenting the successfulness of developing bigger and better organized systems of symbolic robberies as being good things, which that may well be for those who directly benefited from that. However, examples such as the exploitation of the New World being made possible by the funding from the bankers, tends to deliberately disregard the amount of genocides, and accelerating extinction of species, etc., that the bankers' funding enabled. The international bankers have been controlling civilization, in ways which were based upon being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS, which never stops those frauds from still being false! Their fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems enabled them to privatize the profits made from raping and plundering the planet, which also enabled the vicious spirals of the feedback loops of those privatized profits providing the POLITICAL FUNDING, which then enabled the continuation of the ENFORCED FRAUDS. However, at the same time, the socialized losses were accumulating. Thus, the BIG PICTURE issues for the foreseeable future are not merely that the currently existing monetary and taxation systems automatically drive worse and worse social polarization. It is MORE IMPORTANT that those systems enabled the destruction of the natural world, in accumulating ways which could trump the social polarization, as well as drive even more overwhelming pressures through the social polarization being magnified by the destruction of the natural world.

    In my opinion, we are already in the TWILIGHT ZONE, where the socialized losses have exceeded the privatized profits. However, since those privatized profits are able to continue to operate through their POLITICAL FUNDING ENFORCING FRAUDS, civilization continues to be able to deliberately ignore, disregard and discount, the socialized losses, which were always the flip sides to everything that was enabled to be done through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. The BIG PROBLEMS for the systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS are with respect to running into real limits with respect to strip-mining the planet's natural resources. "Money" made out of nothing as debts did NOT "pay" for anything, except that it "paid" for systems of organized lies operating robberies to be able to continue to operate. Meanwhile, while it is theoretically possible that there could be systems of creative alternatives, the most probable futures are for extreme overshooting, due to the exponential growth of the debt slavery systems, generating numbers which are debt insanities, are actually resolved by provoking death insanities.

    In my opinion, within a few decades, people who are young and poor now are going to be more and more facing runaway death insanities, due to them growing up inside of a political economy that was operated through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. Therefore, I do NOT agree with the view that:

    Bottom line: Every person alive now and born in the next century is going to live and die under the existing system.

    My view is that, within a few decades, the existing systems will have their exponential growth run into real limits, which those systems have no ways to cope with, other than provoking death insanities. There are going to be forced to occur dramatic changes in the death control systems, when the exponential growth of the total human population and activities have already seriously overshot, by becoming based on being able to strip-mine the natural resources of a fresh planet with the technologies of the industrial revolutions, whose applications were directed by fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, which tended to deliberately ignore the principle of the conservation of energy, as well as deliberately misunderstand the concept of entropy in the most absurdly backward ways.

    Mostly the articles and comments published on Zero Hedge tend to provide superficially correct analysis, followed by superficial "solutions." (Although those are far superior to what is presented in the mainstream media.) For instance, there are those who call for the return of some sort of material backing for the money, like returning to the gold standard, or whatever. However, the conservation of matter, which was the source of the ring of truth in the real money backed by gold, or silver, etc., ought to be reconsidered in light of the demonstration that matter is a form of energy. My view is that there should be an energy standard for money. However, when one thinks that through far enough, one then discovers the theoretical reasons for the empirical observations that MONEY IS MEASUREMENT BACKED BY MURDER. Generally speaking, most of the superficial analysis that points out what is going wrong with the banksters' abilities to make the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts, while that is FRAUD ENFORCED by governments, tend to continue to promote bogus "solutions," that do not admit and address the deeper reasons for how and why human beings and civilization live as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, which necessarily most closely match the principles and methods of organized crime regarding how those actually operate.

    The basic reasons for why I do NOT believe that people who are young today will live through their entire life times within the currently established systems, continuing to operate as they do now, are that THOSE SYSTEMS ARE OPERATED BY THE BEST AVAILABLE PROFESSIONAL HYPOCRITES, who are unable and unwilling to admit and address those basic facts about themselves, and the systems that they are running. The excessive successfulness of controlling civilization through the methods of organized crime has resulted in the civilization developing in ways which have become runaway criminal insanities. Since that civilization is adamantly unable and unwilling to understand how and why it does, and must necessarily, operate according to the principles and methods of organized crime, it can not change and adapt in any relatively rational ways to running into the real limits of diminishing returns from being able to continue to strip-mine the planet's natural resources at an exponentially accelerating rate. Everyone who previously benefited from doing that has every advantage within the established systems to continue to spin through the vicious spirals of POLITICAL FUNDING ENFORCING FRAUDS. Indeed, mainstream morons tend to still be regarding those as positive and good things to do, by those who were on the sides that benefited from doing that, regardless of whatever else happened to those on the other sides, that suffered from that being done.

    The basic ways that people THINK, based upon the dualities of false fundamental dichotomies and the related impossible ideals, are things that they almost all take completely for granted, which is why most of the content published on Zero Hedge tends to be relatively superficial, if not childish. (Which makes it even more depressing to consider how much better Zero Hedge content is than that presented on the mainstream media!) However, in my view, the globalized monetary systems will change due to factors beyond their control, although that will be expressed through behaviors which are still within their control. A deeper analysis of the monetary system reveals that the debt controls were always backed by the death controls. Since money is measurement backed by murder, there are no ways to change the combined money/murder systems, except by changing both at once. Those changes are going to primarily be driven by factors beyond human control, namely whatever turn out to be the real limits of the environmental energy sources, which will manifest more and more as the development of the problems of diminishing returns, getting worse, and worse … Those changes will manifest through human systems, which will primarily become the systems of debt controls backed by death controls having their runaway levels of debt insanities provoking death insanities.

    As long as there are enough natural resources left to sustain those being sufficiently strip-mined, then the currently existing systems could continue. In my view, that may well be possible for another few decades, or so ??? Therefore, if my expectations turn out to be correct, then younger, poorer, people who are alive today will NOT "live and die under the existing system," but rather die due the psychotic breakdowns of the existing system, where there are series of crazy collapses into chaos, while severe social storms blow through …

    • RE says:

      Twilight Zone indeed.


    • SomeoneInAsia says:

      What interests me here is what the cultural and historical factors were which caused Western 'civilization' — and not any other civilization — to produce all those international banksters and their fraudulent accounting systems, and to tolerate their endless expansion. Did the Christian religion fail the West to the point that a harrowing sense of spiritual emptiness drove the Western mind to seek an escape through the amassment of secular wealth and power?

      • Regarding "whether the Christian religion failed the West:"


        Historian Michael Hoffman gives a talk concerning the thesis

        Usury in Christendom:

        The Mortal Sin that Was and Now is Not.

        Another Crazy Christian presenting interesting history
        regarding the Catholic Church and the monetary system.

        However, his "solutions" appear to me as extreme
        forms of the false fundamental dichotomy dogmas.

        I would put that in this overall historical presentation:



        Meanwhile, here is some analysis of current history, behind various events precipitating the refugee crises:


        Making the World Safe for Banksters: Syria In the Cross-hairs

        By Ellen Brown, September 5, 2013.

        … Forty percent of banks globally are publicly-owned. They are largely in the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—which house forty percent of the global population. They also escaped the 2008 credit crisis, but they at least made a show of conforming to Western banking rules. This was not true of the “rogue” Islamic nations, where usury was forbidden by Islamic teaching. To make the world safe for usury, these rogue states had to be silenced by other means. Having failed to succumb to economic coercion, they wound up in the crosshairs of the powerful US military. …

        WTO members were induced to sign the agreement by threatening their access to global markets if they refused; and they all did sign, except Brazil. Brazil was then threatened with an embargo; but its resistance paid off, since it alone among Western nations survived and thrived during the 2007-2009 crisis. …

        That was the fate of countries in the WTO … those that were not in that organization at all, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran. These seven countries were named by U.S. General Wesley Clark (Ret.) in a 2007 “Democracy Now” interview as the new “rogue states” being targeted for take down after September 11, 2001. He said that about 10 days after 9-11, he was told by a general that the decision had been made to go to war with Iraq. Later, the same general said they planned to take out seven countries in five years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran.

        What did these countries have in common? Besides being Islamic, they were not members either of the WTO or of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). That left them outside the long regulatory arm of the central bankers’ central bank in Switzerland. Other countries later identified as “rogue states” that were also not members of the BIS included North Korea, Cuba, and Afghanistan.

        The body regulating banks today is called the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and it is housed in the BIS in Switzerland. In 2009, the heads of the G20 nations agreed to be bound by rules imposed by the FSB, ostensibly to prevent another global banking crisis. Its regulations are not merely advisory but are binding, and they can make or break not just banks but whole nations. … Among other game-changing regulations in play under the FSB are Basel III and the new bail-in rules. Basel III is slated to impose crippling capital requirements on public, cooperative and community banks, coercing their sale to large multinational banks. …

        Countries laboring under the yoke of an extractive private banking system are being forced into “structural adjustment” and austerity by their unrepayable debt. But some countries have managed to escape. In the Middle East, these are the targeted “rogue nations.” Their state-owned banks can issue the credit of the state on behalf of the state, leveraging public funds for public use without paying a massive tribute to private middlemen. Generous state funding allows them to provide generously for their people.

        Like Libya and Iraq before they were embroiled in war, Syria provides free education at all levels and free medical care. It also provides subsidized housing for everyone (although some of this has been compromised by adoption of an IMF structural adjustment program in 2006 and the presence of about 2 million Iraqi and Palestinian refugees). Iran too provides nearly free higher education and primary health care.

        Like Libya and Iraq before takedown, Syria and Iran have state-owned central banks that issue the national currency and are under government control. Whether these countries will succeed in maintaining their financial sovereignty in the face of enormous economic, political and military pressure remains to be seen. …

        ??? … remains to be seen … ???


        Gearoid O Colmain discusses the Paris attack

        The bigger problems BEHIND the ruling classes are the deeper reasons for how and why there are CHRONIC POLITICAL PROBLEMS INHERENT IN THE NATURE OF LIFE. Civilization has developed the most expedient sets of solutions to those CHRONIC PROBLEMS. It is pretty were politically impossible to rationally discuss the deeper reasons regarding how and why there was exponential growth heading towards OVERSHOOTING! I tend to NOT agree with those who blame EVERYTHING upon the ruling classes, but I will not bother here to explain how I try to think through that, except to provide this LINK TO LINKS:

        Excellent Videos on Money Systems

  • Arshad says:

    Roger, In case you haven't already seen this:


    It's a beauty.

  • St. Roy says:

    Good rant RE.  I agree that civil disorder will trump climate change as the driving force that will bring down population.  I had not thought about that before, but I think that you are right.  Good insight.  How's your recovery following surgery?  Keep the rants coming.  They are the best thing going in the collapse sphere.

    • RE says:

      Thanks SR.

      The surgery didn't change much.  Same basic problems, neck pain, trouble walking, paralyzed right arm, tinnitis etc.  Still waiting on my Workman's Comp case and getting my SSDI, so still without income.  You gotta have a minimum of a year of your own savings to negotiate this shit.


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