Drought Survey Results

survey-saysgc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 1, 2015

http://www.oxfamblogs.org/eastafrica/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/kenya-dead-cattle-620.jpg

Discuss these Results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

Drought Survey Results are IN!

This is a very speculative survey of course.  Nobody can give any absolute scientific proof for their opinion on any of these questions.  However, when you look at a group of Doomers, you begin to get a picture of where they think things are worst, and where they are less worse.

Since you don't know precisely where Mother Nature will decide to drop down some water in any given month or year, these estimates can change quite a bit from year to year.  For instance, the El Nino event this year appears to have brought copious rainfall to Texas, which has been in drought for quite a few years.  It hasn't completely alleviated the drought, and has actually brought the opposite problem of several major Flooding Events, which can be just as destructive.  In flooding events also, most of the water isn't captured, it ends up running back to the sea before it can be sequestered behind some dam, if in fact the dam has not burst.  For predictable Ag needs, your ideal is a regular amount of rainfall, not so little everything dries up, not so much that everything is periodically under 3 feet of water and bridges get washed away.

Despite the problems with being precise here, there are some fairly obvious ongoing trends, and Doomers who follow climate issues are pretty aware of them, so getting a snapshot here of how Drought will play out is interesting information.

So, here we go.

Starting with when the Hoover Dam will have to be shut down and stop producing cheap electricity for the Vegas Strip to stay lit up and Californicators to run their Plasma TVs

http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2014/07/23/df73eed0-6c72-40de-ba13-b6f6aba30f38/resize/620x465/3f5be2b2aaff9d34c24e49b7f3d74720/452330338.jpg

What is closest to the year that the Hoover Dam will have to be shut down and stop providing Electricity?

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later The Hoover Dam will produce Electricity for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 3
(6.25%)
9
(18.75%)
10
(20.83%)
2
(4.17%)
9
(18.75%)
9
(18.75%)
4
(8.33%)
2
(4.17%)
3.32 48

Most Doomers believe this will occur between 2017 and 2020, about 60%.  I agree with that assessment.

At the same time though, most Doomers think it will take until 2025 before Vegas is a complete Ghost Town and the lights on the Strip will go dark forever more.

http://banki.ir/images/stories/picture/gardeshgari/vegas-business-x3.jpg

What is closest to the year that Las Vegas will become a Ghost Town?

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Las Vegas will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 2
(4.17%)
3
(6.25%)
3
(6.25%)
1
(2.08%)
7
(14.58%)
17
(35.42%)
15
(31.25%)
0
(0%)
6.1 48

It is hard to fathom though how people will still live there for 5 more years even if there is some drinking water left.  The Casinos will all be out of biz.  What will they do for work?  It will take a while for it to empty completely of course, but I don't think it will take 5 years.

How about Los Angeles?  When do the Californicators hit the Refugee Highway and abandon Hollywood?

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/fa/84/57/fa8457de390c1cbc8f233bd93cb018dd.jpg

What is closest to the year that Los Angeles will become a Ghost Town?

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Los Angeles will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 2
(4.35%)
0
(0%)
3
(6.52%)
0
(0%)
3
(6.52%)
11
(23.91%)
22
(47.83%)
5
(10.87%)
6.96 46

Most Doomers think LA doesn't become a complete Ghost Town until 2030, and I mostly agree with that. There will still be some left, they will desalinate water, expend huge amounts of energy to keep Snorting Cocaine in Malibu Mansions, at least if they haven't been inundated with Mud Slides before they get the lines laid out on the Mirror and the $100 Bills rolled up..

There are even bigger and more immediate problems with drought than in Vegas or LA down in Sao Paolo, Brasil.  Really all of Brasil since they are burning down the Rainforest for Ag land which might last them 2 seasons, but Sao Paolo has the worst problems right now.

http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1406633/sao-paulo-drought.jpg

What is closest to the year that Sao Paolo will become a Ghost Town?

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later Sao Paolo will not become a Ghost Town for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 2
(4.26%)
2
(4.26%)
1
(2.13%)
2
(4.26%)
13
(27.66%)
12
(25.53%)
14
(29.79%)
1
(2.13%)
5.56 47

Again, most Doomers think it will take until 2020 before the city becomes unlivable, but on that one I am not so sure.  They'll need some serious rainfall in 2016 to stay viable,and the Brasilians are also BROKE.  So building new infrastructure and pipelines for water doesn't seem likely either for the Paolistas.

Probably the BIGGEST question in terms of Global Homo Sap Dieoff from drought issues is concerned is the Great Plains of the FSoA, the so-called "Breadbasket".  It's only been a breadbasket since we started pumping water up from the Ogallala Aquifer and throwing down megatons of fossil fuel based fertilizer on the soil.  Prior to this, the neighborhood was basically a desert, only suitable for grazing herds of Bison and a few First Nations People who hunted them down, following the herds.

When Ogallala is pumped dry, or when the energy to pull up what water is still left deep underground is unavailable, the Great Plains are DONE as a Breadbasket.  Once that occurs, the FSoA will not only no longer be shipping off Food Aid to MENA countries, we will have serious problems feeding our own current population.

So when does this major Doom Event come to pass?

http://www.rodhandeland.com/FreshWater/4o3%20Ogallala%20Aquifer%20Map.jpg

What is closest to the year that the Great Plains will cease to be productive as an Agricultural Region due to depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer? (20% or less of current total grain produced)

  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 or later The Great Plains will remain productive for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 3
(6.25%)
2
(4.17%)
4
(8.33%)
0
(0%)
5
(10.42%)
17
(35.42%)
16
(33.33%)
1
(2.08%)
6.24 48

According to general Doomer Wisdom, this will not occur until 2025 or later.  I would agree with that except for the energy issue, having enough energy to pump the water UP from an aquifer that drops lower each year.  That factor plus availability of Fossil Fuel based fertilizer brings the crash date for Midwest Grain Production closer to 2020 than 2025, IMHO.

Ordering  few US Big Shities currently threatened by drought west of the Mississippi, Vegas comes out on top as expected.

Order these USA cities from 1st to last on which will be 50% depopulated from its current population level.

 
 

1

 

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

Standard Deviation

 

Responses

 

Weighted Average

Las Vegas 31
(68.89%)
8
(17.78%)
2
(4.44%)
3
(6.67%)
0
(0%)
1
(2.22%)
0
(0%)
10.35 45 1.58 / 7
Los Angeles 0
(0%)
12
(26.67%)
14
(31.11%)
5
(11.11%)
8
(17.78%)
3
(6.67%)
3
(6.67%)
4.75 45 3.67 / 7
Fresno 4
(8.89%)
7
(15.56%)
9
(20%)
9
(20%)
9
(20%)
6
(13.33%)
1
(2.22%)
2.82 45 3.76 / 7
Phoenix 8
(17.78%)
13
(28.89%)
7
(15.56%)
8
(17.78%)
7
(15.56%)
2
(4.44%)
0
(0%)
3.96 45 2.98 / 7
Abequerque 1
(2.22%)
3
(6.67%)
10
(22.22%)
8
(17.78%)
9
(20%)
11
(24.44%)
3
(6.67%)
3.7 45 4.47 / 7
El Paso 1
(2.22%)
1
(2.22%)
2
(4.44%)
8
(17.78%)
9
(20%)
16
(35.56%)
8
(17.78%)
5.1 45 5.29 / 7
Salt Lake City 0
(0%)
1
(2.22%)
1
(2.22%)
4
(8.89%)
3
(6.67%)
6
(13.33%)
30
(66.67%)
9.81 45 6.27 / 7

Obviously none of these places are real good choices, but at least for this bunch if you are committed to staying in this neighborhood, this might be a good time to consider converting to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.  lol.

Can Water Desalination make a difference here?  There's PLENTY of Water Earth of course, Oceans FULL of it, even if it is a little warm and being pumped full of radionucleotides by the Radiation Supply Warehouse at Fuck-You-Shima.  Just gotta take the Salt out of the water and we are SAVED!

Of course, the first problem here is that desalination is energy intensive by itself, then after that it really only works in coastal cities.  Anywhere else you have to expend still more energy to pump it uphill from Sea Level.

What do Doomers think about the plausibility of Desalination as a solution to Fresh Water Resource Depletion?

http://alarifeassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/SaudiAl-KhobarDesalinationPlant.jpg

Can Water Desalinization make a signficant difference for coastal cities in maintaining potable water supplies?

  Yes No Maybe for a short while, but not for long. It depends how large the city is. Other Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 4
(8.33%)
13
(27.08%)
27
(56.25%)
4
(8.33%)
0
(0%)
9.69 48

Most Doomers think it can make a significant difference in coastal cities for a while.  I disagree with that.  Only a very few of the richest cities in the world like Riyahd in Saudi Arabia or Los Angeles could even get credit to build these plants to begin with, and then as soon as the monetary system and energy distribution systems fail, they fail right along with them.  It's completely insignficant as a solution on the grand scale.  Epic Fail and waste of what resources we have left here.

So, all in all the Water Issues are not shaping up well, and based on the fact Homo Sap can't live more than around 3 days without Water and the crops we grow for food need copious amounts to produce high yields, it looks likely the Dieoff of Homo Sap and population reduction will begin between 2020 and 2025.  How far down it will go is anybody's guess, but once it gets rolling my guess is that it will move along pretty fast.

Next Collapse Survey TM coming soon to a Laptop Near You:  Terrorism!

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

https://image.freepik.com/free-icon/musical-notes-symbols_318-29778.jpg

Support the Diner
Search the Diner
Surveys & Podcasts

NEW SURVEY

Renewable Energy

VISIT AND FOLLOW US ON DINER SOUNDCLOUD

" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D
Archives
Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BX686_LakeMe_G_20130816175615.jpg

loading

Inside the Diner

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 03:25:50 PMBiden-Linked WHO Adviser Says COVID-19 'Likely' Leaked From Wuhan Lab[url=https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/it-was-all-lie-biden-linked-who-adviser-says-covid-19-likely-leaked-...

Biden-Linked WHO Adviser Says COVID-19 'Likely' Leaked From Wuhan Labhttps://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/it-was-all-lie-biden-linked-w...

I will write a post on this tonight

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/it-was-all-lie-biden-linked-who-adviser-says-covid-19-likely-leaked-wuhan-lab"It Was All ...

12 months on and all is quiet on the fire front.Weather warming up now. Expect next 2 days in the 40's.All clear at the moment on the fire front.https://emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/JOWLink:https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/01/24/wild...

Recent Facebook Posts

No recent Facebook posts to show

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

QuoteHow much are we willing to pay to go green?Fu [...]

If he were alive today, even St. Paul would be tex [...]

Charles Darwin transformed the way we see the natu [...]

By making local officials the gatekeepers for mill [...]

Diner Newz Feeds
  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

Quote from: UnhingedBecauseLucid on March 18, 2019 [...]

CleanTechnicaSupport CleanTechnica’s work via dona [...]

QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

QuoteHow much are we willing to pay to go green?Fu [...]

If he were alive today, even St. Paul would be tex [...]

Charles Darwin transformed the way we see the natu [...]

By making local officials the gatekeepers for mill [...]

Quote from: K-Dog on February 24, 2020, 06:23:52 P [...]

I wonder how much these coins have been debased? [...]

Precious tip of the day.....Buy silver NOW  She [...]

Scientists have unlocked the power of gold atoms b [...]

Quote from: azozeo on August 14, 2019, 10:41:33 AM [...]

I am OUT of Jury Service!  I got summoned to be a [...]

Quote from: Eddie on May 16, 2020, 10:30:30 AMQuot [...]

Quote from: RE on May 16, 2020, 08:20:06 AMQuote f [...]

Quote from: RE on May 16, 2020, 08:20:06 AMQuote f [...]

Alternate Perspectives
  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

  Tyranny, Inc.   By Alexander Macris Contemplations on the Tree of Woe   What government wants to d [...]

Getting Out of Dodge By Cognitive Dissonance     Recently I received an email from a reader who aske [...]

Penalizing Prudence By Cognitive Dissonance     “Economy, prudence, and a simple life are the sure m [...]

Harvest at Chez Cog By Cognitive Dissonance   It became obvious to Mrs. Cog and I by early February [...]

  Perhaps a Crumble Rather Than a Collapse Chapter One By Cognitive Dissonance     “...we can endure [...]

Event Update For 2021-01-21http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2021-01-20http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2021-01-19http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-18http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2021-01-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

In the meantime, industrialised chickens – and their viruses – have come home to roost in Victoria, [...]

Based on extensive scientific research, a fictional reminder that COVID-19 is but a mild pandemic – [...]

In other words, treat COVID-19 like a dry-run for the upcoming “big one” [...]

However don't expect strikes and yellow vests to fix underlying problems [...]

Daily Doom Photo

man-watching-tv

Sustainability
  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

"Forbidden from attending the annual rites of football in facepaint and cheesehead-hats, frustr [...]

"The question is not how long or for what cost it would take to scale up Carbon Dioxide Removal [...]

"Haaland’s very existence is proof that the collapse of Chaco culture did not augur extinction [...]

"There is no more evidence Russians were behind the SolarWinds hack than that Donald Trump was [...]

"Social theorists today work within a crumbling social matrix…. The old order has the picks of [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

Camus didn't predict Covid, but he studied enough about pandemics throughout history to depict [...]

Sarah Chayes spent decades studying networks of corruption in the Third World. Now she's findin [...]

What extinction crisis? Believe it or not, there are still climate science deniers out there. And th [...]

My new book, Abolish Oil Now, will talk about why the climate movement has failed and what we can do [...]

A new climate protest movement out of the UK has taken Europe by storm and made governments sit down [...]

Top Commentariats
  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

In reply to Kowalainen. Could it be to host OFW and other doomer sites? [...]

In reply to Fast Eddy. that's a very good summary of the present predicament, Eddy. and thanks [...]

In reply to Ed. I'm confident that the FBI will be only to happy to look into this once they [...]

In reply to Gail Tverberg. probably has been said before: a person who dies with covid is recorded a [...]

In reply to MG. According to https://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-8640-20/colchicine-oral/colchicine-o [...]

@Volvo Back when the Dems last won it was early in the early days of alternative media discussing Pe [...]

@Ellen I get my mainstream news from NPR. Any non-mainstream news from all the usual blogs: ourfinit [...]

In reply to steve from virginia. Right you are. I see you have a Twitter poll asking when Trump [...]

I forgot to mention Daniel Denvir on The Dig. He does really good work and is easy to listen to. [...]

@Volvo and MR; other than EU where do you go to get current news and analysis? I imagine you both us [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction
Useful Links
Technical Journals
Follow on our http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/