The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed

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Published on the Our Finite World on May 12, 2016

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Discuss this article at the Energy Table inside the Diner

For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand?

The underlying assumption in these models is that scarcity would appear before the final cutoff of consumption. Hubbert looked at the situation from a geologist’s point of view in the 1950s to 1980s, without an understanding of the extent to which geological availability could change with higher price and improved technology. Harold Hotelling’s work came out of the conservationist movement of 1890 to 1920, which was concerned about running out of non-renewable resources. Those using supply and demand models have equivalent concerns–too little fossil fuel supply relative to demand, especially when environmental considerations are included.

Virtually no one realizes that the economy is a self-organized networked system. There are many interconnections within the system. The real situation is that as prices rise, supply tends to rise as well, because new sources of production become available at the higher price. At the same time, demand tends to fall for a variety of reasons:

  • Lower affordability
  • Lower productivity growth
  • Falling relative wages of non-elite workers

The potential mismatch between amount of supply and demand is exacerbated by the oversized role that debt plays in determining the level of commodity prices. Because the oil problem is one of diminishing returns, adding debt becomes less and less profitable over time. There is a potential for a sharp decrease in debt from a combination of defaults and planned debt reductions, leading to very much lower oil prices, and severe problems for oil producers. Financial institutions tend to be badly affected as well. If a person looks at only past history, the situation looks secure, but it really is not.

Figure 1. By Merzperson at English Wikipedia - Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2570936

 

 

 

Figure 1. By Merzperson at English Wikipedia – Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2570936

Substitutes aren’t really helpful; they tend to be high-priced and dependent on the use of fossil fuels, including oil. They cannot possibly operate on their own. They add to the “oversupply at high prices” problem, but don’t really fix the need for low-priced supply.

Why supply tends to rise as prices rise

 

For any non-renewable commodity, there are a wide variety of resources that will “sort of” work as substitutes, if the price is high enough. If the price can be raised to a very high level, the funds available will encourage the development of more advanced (and expensive) technology.

If it is possible to raise the price to a very high level, it is likely that a very large quantity of oil will be available. Figure 1 shows some of the types of oil available:

Getting sufficient oil out is a price problemI got my idea for Figure 2 from a natural gas resource triangle by Stephen Holditch.

Figure 2. Stephen Holdritch's resource triangle for natural gas

 

 

 

Figure 3. Stephen Holditch’s resource triangle for natural gas

A similar resource triangle is available for coal (from National Academies Press; Coal Resource, Reserve, and Quality Assessments):

Figure 3. Coal resources in 1997, based on EIA data. Image from

 

 

 

Figure 4. Coal resources in 1997, based on EIA data. Image from National Academies Press.

Because of the availability of an increasing amount of resources, we are likely to get more oil, natural gas, and coal, if prices rise. We associate high prices with scarcity; instead, high prices tend to make a larger quantity of energy product available.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a different way of illustrating the likelihood of huge future oil supply, if prices can only rise high enough.

Figure 4. Figure 1.4 from International Energy Agency's 2015 World Energy Outlook.

 

 

 

Figure 5. Figure 1.4 from International Energy Agency’s 2015 World Energy Outlook.

The implication of this chart is that the IEA believes that oil prices can rise to $300 per barrel, giving the world plenty of oil to extract for many years ahead.

Can consumers really afford very high-priced energy products?

In my view, the answer is “No!” If oil is high priced, then the many things made with oil will tend to be high priced as well. Wages don’t rise with oil prices; most of us remember this from the oil price run-up of 2003 to 2008.

Because of this affordability issue, the limit to oil production is really an invisible price limit, represented as a dotted line. We can’t know in advance where this is, so it is easy to assume that it doesn’t exist.

Figure 4. Resource triangle, with dotted line indicating uncertain financial cut-off.

 

 

 

Figure 6. Resource triangle, with dotted line indicating uncertain financial cut-off.

The higher cost of extraction is equivalent to diminishing returns.

As we are forced to seek out ever more expensive to extract resources, the economy is in some sense becoming less and less efficient. We are devoting more of our human labor and other resources to extracting fossil fuels, and to extracting minerals from ever-lower-quality ores. In some sense, we could just as well be putting these resources into a pit and burying them–they no longer help us grow the rest of the economy. Using resources in this way leaves fewer resources to “grow” the rest of the economy. As a result, we should expect economic contraction when the cost of oil extraction rises.

In fact, economic contraction seems to happen when oil prices rise, at least for oil importing countries. Economist James Hamilton has shown that 10 out of 11 post-World War II recessions were associated with oil price spikes. A 2004 IEA report says, “.  .  . a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. Inflation would rise by half a percentage point and unemployment would also increase.”

Energy products play a critical role in the economy.

Economic activity is based on many kinds of physical changes. For example:

  • Using heat to transform materials from one form to another;
  • Using energy products to help move goods from one place to another;
  • Moving electrons in such a way that light is provided
  • Moving electrons in such a way that Internet transmission can be provided.

A human being, by himself, exerts only about 100 watts of power. A human being is also quite limited in what he can do; he can provide a little heat, but no light, for example. Energy products are very helpful for making capital goods such as buildings, machines, roads, electricity transmission lines, cars and trucks.

We can think of energy products, and capital goods made using energy products, as ways of leveraging human energy. If per capita energy consumption increases over time, leveraging of human labor can grow. As a result, humans can become ever more productive–think of new and better machines to help humans do their work. Dips in this leveraging tend to correspond to economic contraction (Figure 7).

Figure 6. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2105 data. Year 2015 estimate and notes by G. Tverberg.

 

 

 

Figure 7. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2105 data. Year 2015 estimate and notes by G. Tverberg.

To have a growing economy, wages of non-elite workers need to be growing. 

Our economy is in a sense a “circular economy,” in which non-elite workers (less educated, non-managerial workers) play a pivotal role because they are both producers of goods and potential consumers of the output of the economy. Because there are so many non-elite workers, their demand for homes, cars, and electronic goods plays a critical role in maintaining the total demand of the economy.

Figure 6. Representation of two major part of economy by author.

 

 

 

Figure 8. Representation of two major parts of the economy by author.

If the wages of these non-elite workers are growing, thanks to increased productivity, the economy as a whole can grow. If the wages of these workers are shrinking or are flat (in inflation-adjusted terms), the economy is in trouble. The recycling process cannot work very well.

If there is not enough economic growth–often caused by not enough growth in energy consumption to leverage human labor–then we tend to get a growing imbalance between the sector on the left with businesses, governments, and elite workers, and the sector on the right, with non-elite workers. Part of this wage imbalance comes from sending jobs to low-wage countries. As jobs are shifted to low-wage countries, the workers of the world increasingly cannot afford the goods that they and other workers are producing.

Figure 7. Representation by author of balance that occurs.

 

 

 

Figure 9. Representation by author of imbalance that occurs.

If the wages of non-elite workers are not rising sufficiently, rising debt can be used to hide this problem for a while. The way this is done is by allowing workers to buy goods at ever-lower interest rates, over ever-longer time periods. This strategy has an endpoint, which we seem to be close to reaching.

Debt is a key factor in creating an economy that operates using energy.

A generally overlooked problem of our current system is the fact that we do not receive the benefit of energy products until well after they are used. This is especially the case for energy used to make capital investments, such as buildings, roads, machines, and vehicles. Even education and health care represent energy investments that have benefits long after the investment is made.

The reason debt (and close substitutes) are needed is because it is necessary to bring forward hoped-for future benefits of energy products to the current period if workers are to be paid. In addition, the use of debt makes it possible to pay for consumer products such as automobiles and houses over a period of years. It also allows factories and other capital goods to be financed over the period they provide their benefits. (See my post Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy.)

When debt is used to move forward hoped-for future benefits to the present, oil prices can be higher, as can be the prices of other commodities. In fact, the price of assets in general can be higher. With the higher price of oil, it is possible for businesses to use the hoped-for future benefits of oil to pay current workers. This system works, as long as the price set by this system doesn’t exceed the actual benefit to the economy of the added energy.

The amount of benefits that oil products provide to the economy is determined by their physical characteristics–for example, how far oil can make a truck move. These benefits can increase a bit over time, with rising efficiency, but in general, physics sets an upper bound to this increase. Thus, the value of oil and other energy products cannot rise without limit.

Using hoped-for benefits to set oil prices is likely to lead to oil prices that overshoot their maximum sustainable level, and then fall back.

A debt-based system of setting oil prices is different from what most of us would have considered possible. If wages of non-elite workers had been growing fast enough (Figure 9), increasing debt would not even be needed, because the whole system could grow thanks to the increased buying power of the many non-elite workers. These workers could buy new houses and cars, have more meat in their diet, and travel on international vacations, adding to demand for oil and other energy products, thereby keeping prices up.

As wages of non-elite workers fall behind, an increasing amount of debt is needed. For the US, the ratio of the increase in debt to the increase in GDP (including the rise in inflation) is as shown in Figure 10:

Figure 10. United States increase in debt over five year period, divided by increase in GDP (with inflation!) in that five year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

 

 

 

Figure 10. United States increase in debt over five-year period, divided by increase in GDP (with inflation!) in that five-year period. GDP from Bureau of Economic Analysis; debt is non-financial debt, from BIS compilation for all countries.

Thus, the increase in debt has never been less than the corresponding increase in GDP over five-year periods, even when oil prices were low prior to 1970. In general, the pattern would suggest that the higher the oil price, the higher the increase in debt needs to be to generate one dollar of GDP. This is to be expected, if economic growth depends on Btus of energy, and higher prices lead to the need for more debt to cover the purchase of necessary Btus of energy.

We are reaching a head-on collision between (1) the rising cost of energy production and (2) the falling ability of non-elite workers to pay for this high-priced energy. 

The head-on collision we are reaching is what causes the potential instability referred to at the beginning of this article, as illustrated in Figure 1. Of course, such a collision has the potential to cause debt defaults, as it becomes impossible to repay debt with interest.

Figure 11. Repaying loans is easy in a growing economy, but much more difficult in a shrinking economy.

 

 

 

Figure 11. Repaying loans is easy in a growing economy, but much more difficult in a shrinking economy.

Turchin and Nefedov in the academic book Secular Cycles analyzed eight agricultural economies that eventually collapsed. The problem that these economies encountered was exactly the same one we are now encountering: falling wages of non-elite workers at the same time that the cost of producing energy products (food, at that time) was rising. Rising costs were often an end result of too many people for the arable land. A workaround could be found, such as building irrigation or adding a larger army to conquer a neighboring land, but it would add costs.

As the problems of these economies progressed, debt defaults became more of a problem. Governments found it hard to collect enough taxes, because so many of the workers were increasingly impoverished. Often, workers became sufficiently weakened by an inadequate diet that they became vulnerable to epidemics. Governments often collapsed.

In the economies analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, food prices temporarily spiked, but it is not clear that this was the final outcome, given the inability of workers to pay the high prices. Debt defaults would tend to further reduce ability to pay. Thus, it would not be surprising if prices ended up low (from lack of demand), rather than high. We know that ancient Babylon is an example of one economy that collapsed. Revelation 18:11-13 seems to describe the situation after Babylon’s collapse as one of lack of demand.

11 “The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble; 13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.

Other parts of the oil limits story that researchers have missed

As I have previously mentioned, most researchers begin with the view that soon there will be a problem with energy scarcity. The real issue that tends to bring the system down is related, but it is fairly different. It is the fact that as we use energy, the system necessarily generates entropy. This entropy takes the form of rising debt and increased pollution. It is these entropy-related issues, rather than a shortage of energy products per se, that tends to bring the system down. See my post, Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way.

We could, in theory, fix our problems by adding infinite debt at the same time that wages of non-elite workers tend toward zero. We could then use this additional debt to fight pollution problems and pay all of the workers. All of us know that this solution would not work in the real world, however.

The two-sided economy I have described in Figures 8 and 9 is one part of our problem. There is a popular saying, “We pay each other’s wages.” Unfortunately, paying each other’s wages does not work well, if the wage level of elite workers differs too much from the wage level of the non-elite workers. A worker making $7.50 per hour in a part-time job is not going to be able to pay the wages of a surgeon making $300,000 per year, no matter how an insurance policy is designed to spread costs evenly. A worker in India or Africa will not be able to afford goods made by human workers in the United States, because of wage differences.

Governments can try to fix the problem of non-elite workers getting too small a share of the output of the system, but this is not easy to do. The real problem is that the system as a whole is not producing enough goods and services. This happens because the high cost of energy extraction (plus related issues–pollution control; need for more education for workers; need for ever-larger government and more elite workers) is removing too many resources from the system. The result is that the economy as a whole tends to grow ever more slowly. The quantity of goods and services produced by the economy does not rise very rapidly. When there are not enough goods produced in total, non-elite workers tend to find that their allocation has been reduced.

If governments attempt to add debt to fix the problems with the system, the addition of debt tends to raise asset prices on the left side of Figures 8 and 9. Unfortunately, the additional debt usually has little impact on the wages of non-elite workers (that is, the right hand part of the system).

Governments have talked about minimum income programs to raise incomes of those who are not elite workers. Whether or not this approach can work depends on many things–how much additional debt can be added to the system; whether this debt will actually raise the total amount of goods and services produced; how tolerant those in the left-hand side of Figures 8 and 9 are of losing their share of goods and services; the impact on relative currency levels.

Research involving Energy Returned on Energy Investment (EROEI) ratios for fossil fuels is a frequently used approach for evaluating prospective energy substitutes, such as wind turbines and solar panels. Unfortunately, this ratio only tells part of the story. The real problem is declining return on human labor for the system as a whole–that is, falling inflation adjusted wages of non-elite workers. This could also be described as falling EROEI–falling return on human labor. Declining human labor EROEI represents the same problem that fish swimming upstream have, when pursuit of food starts requiring so much energy that further upstream trips are no longer worthwhile.

Falling fossil fuel EROEI is a contributor to falling EROEI with respect to human labor, but there are other contributors as well (Figure 12). (My list is probably not exhaustive.)

Figure 12. Authors' depiction of changes to workers share of output of economy, as costs keep rising for other portions of the economy keep rising.

 

 

 

Figure 12. Author’s depiction of changes to workers’ share of output of economy, as costs keep rising for other portions of the economy.

If our problem is a shortage of fossil fuels, fossil fuel EROEI analysis is ideal for determining how to best leverage our small remaining fossil fuel supply. For each type of fossil fuel evaluated, the fossil fuel EROEI calculation determines the amount of energy output from a given quantity of fossil fuel inputs. If a decision is made to focus primarily on the energy products with the highest EROEI ratios, then our existing fossil fuel supply can be used as sparingly as possible.

If our problem isn’t really a shortage of fossil fuels, EROEI is much less helpful. In fact, the EROEI calculation strips out the timing over which the energy return is made, even though this may vary greatly. The delay (and thus needed amount of debt) is likely to be greatest for those energy products where large front-end capital expenditures are required. Nuclear would tend to be a problem in this regard; so would wind and solar.

To evaluate the extent to which a given energy product tends to raise debt levels, a better approach might be to look at debt levels directly. Another measure might be to compare the required system-wide capital expenditures for a particular purpose, for example, to provide sufficient non-intermittent electricity for the state of California over a period of say, 50 years, using different electricity generation scenarios.

Our academic system of inquiry, with its peer reviewed literature system, has let us down.

Our peer reviewed academic system is not telling this story. Part of the problem is that this is a difficult story. It has taken me most of the last ten years to figure it out.

Part of the problem with our academic system seems to be excessive reliance on past analyses. Once one direction has been set, it is hard to change. Another part of the problem is that the focus of each researcher tends to be quite narrow. The result can be that it is hard to “see the forest for the trees.”

Furthermore, politicians and academic publishers tend to “push” results in the direction of a desired outcome. Grant money goes to researchers who follow the government-preferred fields of inquiry; publishers prefer books that are not too alarming to students.

I am coming at this issue from “out in left field.” I don’t have a Ph.D., although I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, which many would consider similar. I also have an M. S. in Mathematics. I do not work in a university setting. I do not have a strong background in subjects a person might expect, such as geology, economic theory, or physics. I do have a fair amount of practical experience with financial modeling from my actuarial background, however.

My approach is very different from that of most researchers. I come to the problem from the point of view of how a finite world might be expected to operate. I write most of my articles on the Internet, where I get the benefit of comments from readers. Many of these commenters point me in the direction of articles or books I should read, or raise additional issues I should consider.

Over the years, I have become acquainted with many researchers in related fields. These people have generally reached out to me–invited me to speak at their conferences, or corresponded with me about issues they considered important. As a result of this collaboration, I have been able to put together a more complete story than others.

I have stayed away from publishers and funding sources that might try to influence what I say. I have not been taking donations, and do not run ads on my website. The story is one that needs to be told, but it easily gets distorted if the person telling the story is influenced by what will generate the largest donations, or the most grant money.

One Response to The real oil limits story; what other researchers missed

  • The article above mostly repeats the previous one:

    Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy

    I again point out comments I posted under that.

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_theorem

    Thomas theorem:

    "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."

    Civilization is almost totally dominated by the biggest bullies' bullshit languages and philosophy of science, mostly manifesting as the DUALITIES of false fundamental dichotomies, and the related impossible ideals. We should go through intellectual scientific revolutions, that enable profound paradigm shifts in the perception of political economy, in order to approach those as UNITARY MECHANISMS, which better understand how and why human beings and civilization necessarily live as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, which most closely match the principles and methods of organized crime, due to the ways that the murder systems necessarily are the central controls to everything else.

    The superficial view of the ruling classes as being increasingly psychotic psychopaths does not adequately address the deeper reasons for how and why they developed to become those, along with the matching ways that those that they ruled over became increasingly impotent, incompetent political idiots. It was the history of successful warfare based upon deceits and treacheries that enabled the development of political economy to become based upon public governments ENFORCING FRAUDS by private banks. That was all due to the methods of organized crime manifesting on larger and larger scales, as enabled by progress in physical science. MEANWHILE, there has been no similar progress in political science, because that would have to integrate and surpass the progress already achieved in physical science, which was based upon series of profound paradigm shifts.

    Tverberg correctly points out that, within the established economy:

    "Debt is a key factor in creating an economy that operates using energy."

    I REPEAT that I know from past exchanges on Gail Tverberg's Web site that she likes to use Hanlon's Razor presumptions, in order to avoid the perspective that debt controls are backed by death controls. She does NOT like to consider that debt slavery systems were DELIBERATELY DESIGNED, in ways which have an inherent structure which necessarily drives the development of debt insanities, because of the ways that those MAD Money As Debt systems are based upon being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS, which become exponentially more FRAUDULENT. The biggest bullies' bullshit became the banksters' bullshit. That continues to almost totally dominate all public discussions of political economy. Hence, there is nothing but the core of organized crime, bankster dominated governments, surrounded by controlled opposition groups.

    "If history shows anything, it is that there’s no better way to justify relations founded on violence, to make such relations seem moral, than by reframing them in the language of debt — above all, because it immediately makes it seem that it’s the victim who’s doing something wrong."

    — David Graerber

    "Almost everyone was taught that money was invented to replace the messy business of barter. … other experts on the history of money, say that this is a myth. Instead, they say that money was invented to finance war, and to keep score while armies went about pillaging and looting."

    Overall "central planning," through central banks supervising systems whereby the public "money" is made out of nothing as debts, is ONLY possible to the degree that human artificial selection systems operate inside of natural selection systems which are infinitely bigger. However, the crucial political problems are that natural selection pressures drove the development of artificial selection systems to become most socially successful by becoming most deceitful and fraudulent. There are chronic political problems which are inherent to the nature of life. Those have driven the development of intense paradoxes, manifesting as systems of consistent contradictions, because civilization necessarily operates according to the principles of organized crime, while those who most successfully do that were those where were best able to be dishonest about that, or to believe in those lies, (depending upon the degree to which particular individuals tends to be members of the ruling classes, or members of those classes which were ruled over.)

    Successful warfare based upon deceits became successful finance based on frauds, as the successful application of the methods of organized crime were manifested on larger scales, in more sophisticated ways. The essential political problems are that there must be some death control systems, while the most intense manifestation of that overall problem became that the most extreme murder systems drove their ideology of militarism to become based on deceits and treacheries, which then became successful economics based upon being able to enforce frauds, despite that becoming exponentially more fraudulent. Attempts to have better human planning runs into the essential problems that such better planning must include planning the death control systems. Given that, the controlled opposition groups tend to NOT admit and address those issues, because then they would have to propose and promote their alternative death controls, including their alternative murder systems. Instead, it is much easier to project all the blame on the ruling classes, who are becoming increasingly psychotic psychopaths, without developing any more "sympathy for those devils."

    Warfare was the oldest and best developed form of social science and engineering, which then became the foundation for economics. In that context, "planning" becomes hyper-complicated, due to the degree that the public presentations of those "plans" are deliberately designed to be tricky. The most tricky aspects of that revolve around "planning" the murder systems. In general, those have developed to become so totally dishonest, for so long, that it is politically impossible to have any more rational public debates about the death control systems in general, which results in "fatal deceits," & fatal deceits squared, & fatal deceits cubed, etc. … depending on how far one is willing to travel through those almost infinite tunnels of deceits, whereby the murder systems are most successful by being the most deceitful and treacherous, while upon that basis there ended up becoming the established systems of political economy, based upon governments becoming the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangsters, who are currently the international banksters. Their "plans" are extremely successful at being legalized frauds, which symbolically rob. Furthermore, the degree of their successfulness has resulted in their being practically no publicly significant opposition, which does not also operate inside the same overall bullshit frame of reference. The ways that almost everyone misunderstand energy systems are due to them continuing to take completely for granted thinking about those in terms of DUALITIES, rather than using UNITARY MECHANISMS. Those misunderstandings amount to perceiving pretty well everything in the most absurdly backward ways.

    THERE ARE INTENSE PARADOXES DRIVEN BY THE WAYS THAT NATURAL SELECTION PRESSURES DROVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARTIFICIAL SELECTION SYSTEMS TO BECOME BASED ON FRAUDS AND DECEITS, AND THEREFORE, FOR ALL THE DOMINATE NATURAL LANGUAGES AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE TO BECOME EXPRESSIONS OF THE BIGGEST BULLIES' BULLSHIT, WHICH BECAME AS ABSURDLY BACKWARDS AS IT COULD POSSIBLE BECOME.

    That collective INSANITY became so great due to the degree that all of the most socially successful people became the best available professional hypocrites. In general, almost everyone continues to take for granted thinking using DUALITIES, false fundamental dichotomies, and the related impossible ideals. Thinking using more UNITARY MECHANISMS is generally not understood, and not wanted to be understood. Instead, the established systems based upon successfully ENFORCING FRAUDS are based upon deliberately ignoring the principle of the conservation of energy, as well as misunderstanding the concept of entropy in the most absurdly backward ways.

    Therefore, the ways that almost everyone talks about "economics" is based upon the maximum possible, absurdly backward, dishonesties, which nevertheless are almost totally taken for granted by almost everyone. The abilities of central banks to engage in central planning only exists because the international bankers were the biggest gangsters, the banksters, who were able to apply the method of organized crime, through vicious spirals of political funding ENFORCING FRAUDS. Every possible energy industry must necessarily be operating through those fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, INSIDE ENFORCED FRAUDS BECOMING EXPONENTIALLY MORE FRAUDULENT!

    There was never any publicly significant opposition that was not being controlled, by actually being manifestations of fractal patterns of organized crime, operating in frames of reference nested inside of other nested frames of reference. (E.g., bullshit about "communism" inside bullshit about "capitalism" etc..) The basic ability to plan is based upon human consciousness being able to engage in relative SUBTRACTIONS, whereby parts are relatively separated from the whole, and given names, which are used to tell stories. Human beings build mental models of their world, which include mental models of themselves within their model of their world. As soon as one perceives and defines human beings as relatively separated from each other, and their environment, the ways that energy must be conserved when flowing across those boundaries results in those SUBTRACTIONS manifesting as ROBBERIES.

    Civilization has always been based upon the ruling classes being able to control those they ruled over through backing up lies with violence, which resulted in those they ruled over developing attitudes of ignorance and fear. Hence, there has always been War On Consciousness, and therefore, the dominate cultures do everything they can to prevent most people from understanding elementary philosophy or spirituality. Instead, the vast majority of people, for generation after generation, have been brainwashed to believe in bullshit, and that especially includes economics, which is deliberately NOT publicly understood as a special case of warfare. Instead of economics being understood as a special case of the manifestation of general energy systems, economics is perceived and discussed through sets of DUALITIES which perversely reverse everything in the most absurdly backward ways, and that includes the ways that the concept of entropy tends to be publicly presented in inverted ways, because of the history of the philosophy of science being required to compromise with the biggest bullies' bullshit world views, which are able to publicly present everything in ways what become as absurdly backwards as it is humanly possible to sustain such runaway cognitive dissonance.

    As a whole, civilization becomes increasingly psychotic and criminally insane, due to the prodigious progress in physical science not being able to be matched and surpassed by progress in political science, since doing so would require series of intellectual revolutions and profound paradigm shifts that integrated and surpassed those paradigm shifts already achieved by physical science. Instead, the previous systems of paper money frauds, backed by gunpowder weapons, became runaway systems of globalized electronic money frauds, backed by the threat of force from atomic weapons.

    The Physics Of Energy & The Economy is almost infinitely more hyper-complicated than Tverberg presents, due to roles of the murder systems within those, which have generated almost infinite tunnels of deceits. The more that physical science and technology progress, the worse the contradictions become that political science is based upon deliberately ignoring how and why civilization necessarily operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, due to human beings and civilization being entropic pumps of environmental energy flows. That can both be theoretically derived from considering that human beings and civilization are energy systems, as well as can be empirically observed by anyone willing to examine the history of how the international bankers made and maintained the existing political economy based upon public governments enforcing frauds by private banks.

    Since Tverberg tends to not more fully discuss the ways in which the political economy is based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS, her superficially correct analysis grossly understates how extremely hyper-complicated the combined money/murder systems actually are … However, I would repeat that natural selection pressures drove the development of artificial selection systems to become based upon the maximum possible deceits and frauds, and therefore, it is possible that natural selection pressures may continue to drive the artificial selection systems to go through radical changes. Since human consciousness plays a role in that process, and particularly the ways that the ruling classes have waged war against the consciousness of those they ruled over plays some of the most crucial roles in those interactions, one could speculate that future adaptations may arise through changes in human consciousness, and especially in changes in the war against consciousness that the ruling classes have waged against those they ruled over.

    Adapting to changing physical realities, such as outlined in Tverberg's articles, is made almost politically impossible by the degree to which the ways that people think and communicate about economic activities are based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, in ways which almost everyone takes for granted. Those who were the biggest and best organized gangs of robbers, such as the banksters, whose symbolic robberies were achieved by governments enforcing their legalized frauds, were then being able to use that "wealth" to continue to dominate the funding of the political processes, to thereby continue to have systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, drive the privatization of the profits, while socializing the losses, and especially by deferring those losses on to future generations. The established systems of debt controls, backed by death controls, not only defer the debts onto future generations, but also defer the deaths onto future generations.

    Although it is theoretically possible that human beings and civilization could adapt to the changing environmental circumstances, such as the increasing problems presented by the diminishing returns for having already significantly strip-mined the natural resources of a fresh planet, that the ways that they think about themselves doing that having become as deceitful and fraudulent as possible makes actually doing that appear to be politically impossible, without that being forced to happen in ways that go out of the control of those established systems. But nevertheless, the development of new systems of organized lies operating robberies, along with the development of some new dynamic equilibria between those systems, will surely happen …

    ALTHOUGH HUMAN BEINGS AND CIVILIZATION DO NOT VIOLATE THE LAWS OF NATURE WHEN FRAUDS ARE ENFORCED, THE LONGER TERM CULTURAL CONSEQUENCES OF SUCCESSFULLY ENFORCING FRAUDS DRIVES CIVILIZATION TOWARDS DELIBERATELY IGNORING AND/OR MISUNDERSTANDING THE LAWS OF NATURE IN WAYS WHICH BECOME INCREASINGLY PSYCHOTIC.

    MEANWHILE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE CONTINUE TO TAKE FOR GRANTED HAVING LIVED FOR GENERATION AFTER GENERATIONS INSIDE ENFORCED FRAUDS, AND THEREFORE, HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY ADAPTED TO BELIEVING IN THE BULLSHIT REGARDING THEMSELVES DOING THAT.

    The degree to which the vast majority of people continue to take for granted the biggest bullies' bullshit, and the banksters' bullshit, is demonstrated by the degree to which they take for granted using DUALITIES, false fundamental dichotomies, and impossible ideals. Doing so runs throughout the dominate natural languages and philosophy of science. For instance, the concept of entropy had its meaning reversed by arbitrary minus signs inserted into the entropy equations of thermodynamics and information theory, so that the measurements of power and information would appear to have relative positive values, rather than have relative negative values, as the mathematical physics itself was actually revealing. Similarly, MAD Money As Debt is publicly presented as if that were positive capital, while that is actually negative capital.

    In general, almost all of the public analyses of the problems continues to take place inside of people still taking for granted thinking using DUALITIES. Hence, those superficially correct analyses then end up proposing and promoting bogus "solutions," which continue to be absurdly backwards to how the mechanisms actually work, since everything actually operates through the UNITARY MECHANISMS of energy systems, in ways which are deliberately not admitted and addressed, because the biggest bullies want their languages to enable them to operate as professional hypocrites, and almost everyone has been taught those languages for generation after generation. To think more deeply about "The Physics of Energy & The Economy" requires going through profound paradigm shifts in political science, in order to start using more UNITARY MECHANISMS to understand human beings and civilization as manifestations of general energy systems, which are actually totally integrated into their surrounding environmental energy systems.

    The political problems with using such UNITARY MECHANISMS, instead of the old-fashioned DUALITIES, is that it becomes necessarily the case that governments are the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized criminals, because the death control systems are central and essential to the control of everything else, including that money is measurement backed by murder. It became necessarily the case that the existing sociopolitical systems are operated by the best available hypocrites, who promote impossible ideals, that always backfire badly and actually cause the opposite to happen in the real world. Those professional hypocrites are found in BOTH the bankster controlled governments, AND the controlled opposition groups. Civilization was always necessarily operating as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, which most closely matched the principles and methods of organized crime. However, those who became the biggest and best organized forms of that organized crime were able to promote their bullshit social stories, based upon false fundamental dichotomies, while their promotion of those DUALITIES resulted in the inversions and perversions of the ways that most people perceive almost everything. Furthermore, the dominate natural languages and philosophy of science almost totally take those perverse inversions for granted, such that it is practically impossible for the vast majority of people to think or communicate in ways which are not almost totally based upon believing in bullshit.

    Meanwhile, as our various political problems get worse, faster, at about an exponential rate, we are rapidly running out of time to go through the profound paradigm shifts which are theoretically necessary. The essential problems are due to the ways that we collectively tend to misunderstand the energy systems by still thinking about those through DUALITIES, instead of UNITARY MECHANISMS. There is a growing list of obvious anomalies driven by our economic systems operating through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, which are automatically becoming exponentially more fraudulent. However, since those who are most socially successful are the best professional hypocrites who have adapted to living inside fraudulent finances, there appear to be no politically possible ways for those systems to admit and address their consequences becoming exponentially more fraudulent, to degree that those have become runaway psychotic, criminal insanities: i.e., globalized electronic monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs!

    While the special theory of relativity, that made atomic bombs possible, demonstrated that the ways we previously thought about time and space as independent absolutes were totally wrong, because the conservation of energy operated to make time and space relative, that insight does yet have any publicly significant presence in political philosophy. Since we thought about time and space in totally wrong ways, and since the distribution of energy in time and space is entropy, we should have also profoundly changed the ways that we thought about entropy, along with changed all the other false fundamental dichotomies based on the material versus spiritual, since ENERGY IS SPIRIT

    Indeed, one of the ways that progress in mathematical physics can be intepreted is that is becoming more and more a creative synthesis between post-modernizing science and ancient mysticism. Over and over again, in the most profound ways, paradigm shifts in physical science should also be applied in political science!  However, despite there now being combined money/murder systems, operating through the debt controls being backed by death controls, that have become globalized electronic frauds, backed by the threat of force from atomic bombs (based on progress in quantum physics and the special theory of relativity, etc.), virtually NONE of the profound paradigm shifts in physical science have any publicly significant effects upon changing politics, which continues to be almost totally dominated by old-fashioned religions and ideologies.

    While the history of progress in physical science has mostly been the history of paradigm shifts that replaced DUALITIES with UNITARY MECHANISMS, doing so in political science has had no publicly significant expression, but rather, the discussions of political economy continues to be almost totally based upon taking for granted thinking using DUALITIES. That especially includes the ironic ways that people who discuss the relationships between the economy, energy, and the environment tend to continue to automatically default to using DUALITIES in ways which are NOT consistent with understanding human beings and civilization actually being energy systems, that operate through UNITARY MECHANISMS, (except when one penetrates deeper into the sets of consistent contradictions based upon being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS.)

    It it theoretically impossible to resolve the problems with respect to our energy economy as long as we continue to take for granted thinking about those problems using DUALITIES, rather than start to use more UNITARY MECHANISMS. However, at the same time, it is apparently politically impossible for the best professional hypocrites, who are adapted to taking for granted those DUALITIES, to sufficiently revolutionize the ways that they think and communicate. While the anomalies due to ENFORCING FRAUDS BECOMING EXPONENTIALLY MORE FRAUDULENT,  become more blatantly obvious, the resolution of those problems through series of profound paradigm shifts has barely any public significance, since the most socially successful people continue to be the best professional hypocrites, who are able to continue using the language of DUALITIES, false fundamental dichotomies, and impossible ideals, which are able to provide what appear to be superficially correct analyses, and the related superficial "solutions," BUT which actually are as absurdly backward as possible, in the most profound ways possible.

    Although there is only one energy, and therefore only one political system, since that system actually matches the principles and methods of organized crime, due to its death controls being central to everything else, therefore, the intense paradoxes and sets of consistent contradictions that the ways civilization thinks about and communicates with respect to itself as a general energy system using DUALITIES instead of UNITARY MECHANISMS, has been driven by natural selection pressures to develop artificial selection systems based upon the maximum possible deceits and frauds. While those developments continue to be consistent with the ways that civilization actually operates as a general energy system, it also therefore continues to be the case that there is a dominate culture of consistent contradictions that are socially successful by being as dishonest about themselves as possible.

    Transcendentally speaking, energy continues to be conserved as it flows through the nested toroidal vortex structures of civilization. Therefore, human beings continue to participate in the overall perfection of the universe as a whole, despite having developed social pyramid systems where the ruling classes have become increasingly psychotic psychopaths, while those they ruled over have matched that by becoming increasingly impotent, incompetent political idiots. That is an expression of the War On Consciousness, which may be perceived as the central, spiritual war, which is the source of all the other wars. Moreover, it is again typical that such problems tend to continue to also be perceived and expressed through taking DUALITIES for granted, such that the bogus "solutions" which are most publicly promoted continue to be as absurdly backwards as possible, and therefore, continue to backfire badly. Those who attempt to promote our actual ONENESS, still tend to publicly do so through the languages of DUALITIES.

    The source of the impossible ideals is the conservation of energy. However, instead of better understanding those through UNITARY MECHANISMS, various impossible ideals tend to continue to be promoted through taking for granted the languages of DUALITIES. The false fundamental dichotomy between energy versus entropy is one of the most significant philosophical errors. However, one will find that extremely common throughout almost all of the work by everyone who attempts to discuss the problems with respect to our political economy and energy systems. Tverberg's article above was merely another illustration of that. "The real oil limits story" is as hyper-complicated as the combined money/murder systems made the exploitation of natural resources actually become. Many "other researchers" take thinking using DUALITIES even more for granted. Therefore, the intensifying ironies, that people who discuss "energy" problems tend to continue to think about the economics that surrounds that energy using DUALITIES, rather than start thinking using more UNITARY MECHANISMS, in ways which are actually more inherently consistent with understanding energy systems. 

    Some deeper reasons for how and why most people want to continue to think and communicate using DUALITIES is that they are thereby able to deliberately ignore that DEBT CONTROLS WERE BACKED BY DEATH CONTROLS. Deliberately misunderstanding everything in most absurdly backward ways is what the biggest bullies, who have become the banksters, want everyone else to do, and what the established systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS have driven to happen for generation after generation. However, we are reaching the tipping points where the required doublings of that FRAUDULENCE ARE BECOMING MORE FLABBERGASTING! Thus, the anomalies are becoming more blatantly obvious, but nevertheless, those have not yet driven enough profound paradigm shifts in the basic ways that we perceive those problems.

    Prodigious progress in mathematical physics has made it become more and more theoretically imperative for political science to integrate and surpass the paradigm shifts already achieved in political science. However, pretty well nobody is able and willing to do that, while the established systems are entrenched in their attitudes to continue to deliberately resist that from happening! The increasingly paradoxical problems outlined by Tverberg regarding the political economy of energy are some of the expressions of the contradictions driven by some human beings better understanding general energy systems, while almost no human beings want to better understand themselves as energy systems, due to the history of the biggest bullies, who became the banksters, achieving their social successes through prolonged War On Consciousness.

    Therefore, at the present time, it appears politically impossible for human beings to better understand themselves. Hence, no better integrated human, industrial and natural ecologies are politically impossible. Rather, the only things happening are the runaway systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS BECOMING EXPONENTIALLY MORE FRAUDULENT. While human beings and civilization do NOT violate the laws of nature, the degree to which the currently established dominate civilization deliberately ignores and/or misunderstands the laws of nature puts us on tragic trajectories which are increasingly psychotic, criminal insanities …

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