The Renewable Energy Survey: RESULTS

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Published on The Doomstead Diner on June 12, 2016

RES-5

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

Take the Renewable Energy Survey HERE (still open!)

Survey Discussion & Analysis with Ugo Bardi & Gail Tverberg

The RES has accumulated an enormous amount of data, so now is a good time to take a Snapshot of what the current attitudes are about its potential for maintaining the techno-industrial lifestyle.

Before we look at the numbers though, a few important points about the sample.  By no means is this a random sample of attitudes of the world at large.  If you were to drop this survey on USA Today, I am quite sure you would get completely different results.  This sample comes from 6 main websites:

Cassandra's Legacy

Our Finite World

The Archdruid Report

Economic Undertow

Reddit r/collapse & r/globalcollapse

The Doomstead Diner

There are a few contributions from other sites like Global Economic Intersection and Reddit r/solar, but by far the majority come from the sites listed above.  If you were on the list to receive the full data set, you can see how many results came from each site, most respondents did list their referral site.

All of these sites have a readership which follows collapse issues and dynamics, and there is something of a consensus opinion on these sites that industrial civilization is bound for collapse.  The results of the survey reflect that consensus.  However, the results also demonstrate that there are two distinct sub-camps among these readers, those that hold out some hope for a technological solution, and those who do not believe a technological solution can work.

For the population being sampled, this survey is highly significant and a statistically reliable measure of the population being surveyed, estimated at around 50,000.  It comes in with a 95% Confidence level with a 5% margin of error roughly.  For the most part also, since the first 50 or so responses came in, the percentages for the responses and their distribution really hasn't varied all that much.  I will leave the survey open after this article publishes to see if there is any change in the later submissions.

As a long time reader of the Collapse Blogosphere, the aggregate results of the survey didn't surprise me at all.  Does this mean the survey is correct in its predictions of timelines and numbers?  Not necessarily, but it does tell you what most of the people reading collapse blogs THINK will occur and when it will occur.  Given these readers follow the trends more closely than the average J6P, they're making a more informed decision than most people would.  It's also a very highly educated sample, with over 75% of respondents with Baccalaureate degree or above.  One of the most interesting things to do is to parse the data by the demographics, to see the differences in attitudes by things like age, gender, education level and so forth.  I'm not going to do that in this post, but readers who get the spreadsheet will be able to do that quite easily.

 survey-saysOK, all that being said, now let's look at the results themselves!  With each of the graphs, I'll include a few of the text responses that came in also.  All the text responses are included in the spreadsheet.  I calculated this data when the total submissions were at 237, they have increased some since but percentages haven't changed significantly.

First up, Ugo Bardi's original question from a survey he did on a renewable energy forum a few weeks ago.  In that survey, he got a generally positive view of the future potential of RE.  The Kollapsniks we got survey submissions from are not so positive.

The question is about the possibility of a society not too different from ours (**) but 100% based on renewable energy sources, and on the possibility of obtaining it before it is too late to avoid the climate disaster. This said, what statement best describes your position?

 
 

It is impossible for technical reasons. (Renewables have too low EROEIs, need too large amounts of natural resources, we'll run out of fossil fuels first, climate change will destroy us first, etc.)

 

It is technically possible but so expensive to be unthinkable.

 

It is technically possible and not so expensive to be beyond our means. However, it is still expensive enough that most likely people will not want to pay the costs of the transition before it will be too late to achieve it, unless we move to a global emergency status.

 

It is technically possible and inexpensive enough that it can be done smoothly, by means of targeted government intervention, such as a carbon tax.

 

It is technically possible and technological progress will soon make it so inexpensive that normal market mechanisms will bring us there nearly effortlessly.

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 128
(54%)
19
(8%)
55
(23%)
25
(11%)
10
(4%)
43.04 237

RES-1

The low EROEIs of renewables would require change to our industrial civilisation but I think that it could be qualitatively similar. The differences are enough though to create fierce resistance to that change, until it's too late to be effective.

It's technically possible but the amount we need to cut would require a radically different type of society. A type of society that would be fervently fought against by our world leaders. At the very least we need some kind of steady state economy.

Having significantly less people located in areas of high carrying capacity or high energy density would perhaps let us remain similar in quality but not in quantity. A timely transition though does not seem likely. However all depends on what is meant with "ours". If it means the average internet user – it will be different.

If you look at the first two choices as being from those who do not see renewable energy as being a possible solution and the last 3 choices as those who give it at least some chance for success, you are at about 62% with little hope it will help as opposed to 38% with some hope that it will.  What this indicates is that for people trying to promote RE as a solution, they're not convincing most people in the collapse blogosphere of this.  That doesn't mean they are wrong of course, it just means the ideas aren't selling too well in this population.

What are the major impediments to replacing fossil fuels with Renewable Energy? (rank from biggest impediment to smallest by sliding the choices up and down with your mouse on the icon to the left of the choice)

RES-2

In When trucks stop running, I show why an 80 to 100% renewable grid is not possible (partly based on research from Germany and Europe, which are far ahead of the USA in this). Indeed, DOE found that we may not even be able to cope with a 56 to 61% renewable powered grid — it is too unstable. But mainly because of limited sites for pumped hydro, CAES, geothermal, and the cost and scale of electrochemical batteries.

Fossil fuel energy use quantity is unlikely to be replaceable for a very long time to come. Most energy use is a means to a specific end though, and if the needs and desires can be met in a similar manner a full replacement is not necessary. That is why political ranks highest. Thermodynamics is likely to be a major impediment in the short and medium term (e.g. centuries). Characterizing transportation systems with a scalar is not adequate, but the gist remains the same.

The obsession to use electricity for everything is not good due thermodinamical reasons (many conversions, ineficiencies in some electrical uses, intermitenci, etc). This adds to intermitency, seasonality, YoY variability, that implies overscaling, that implies energy storing, that implies damn high costs, that are too expensive to adapt this to transportation that is the backbone of our economy right now. This will lead to increased costs, lower wages and salaries, and feedback into our economy. After all, what we are seeing now is that EROEI is too low even for FF, to sustain our economy and society. Lower EROEI of RE will do things worse. If the current status of economy (and FF depletion) will allow us to do some real switch.

I tend to agree that the biggest impediment here is the battery technology, for all sorts of reasons.  Mining up all the materials necessary for enough battery storage to balance the loads is probably impossible to do, even if there are enough materials in the ground to do it.  All manufacturing processes also create tremendous waste products, and figuring out how to safely dispose of them would be a large problem too.

I do think that the thermodynamic issue is underrated here.  Although certainly plenty of energy drops on the earth from the Sun every day, how much of it is actually collectible and convertable to usable form?  Can you get the energy from where it might be collected (say ocean waves) to where it would be used somewhere on land without a huge loss in the transmission?  What kind of EROEI is there for this?

Rank which form of Renewable Energy from which is Most Likely to be Successful to Least Likely to be Successful.

RES-3

Where is nuclear power? It seems to me that nuclear is renewable on the timescales that matter for climate change, and fully renewable if "on the horizon" designs of breeder reactors are considered. The one thing that is irrefutable is that nuclear is a low carbon technology, which is also despatchable. As such, it seems incredible that you don't include it in a transitioned world view. This is especially true as it currently contributes over a tenth of global electricity supply, which is more than wind!

When it comes to energetic return on investment, hydro tends to work better than wind, which works better than solar. Draft animal power, slave labor, water wheels, micro-hydro, and mechanical windmills have already been proven to work in pre-industrial conditions (though they don't provide much energy). For the others, large-scale systems tend to benefit from economies of scale.

Direct action renewables will be the real only source of energy in the future. Electrical society wouldn't work, and would lead to social collapse. The amount of resources to keep our current tecnology alive is overwhelming. Semiconductors, the cornerstone of our technology and the actual bet for All Electric RE require >70 elements of the periodic table. And they are NOT RENEWABLE.

In the text responses, I began with the Nuclear Energy critique, because this came up several times.  I responded to my rationale for that in my last RES post, which is that when constructing the survey I don't myself generally lump Nuclear in the "Renewable" category, although you can make the case that it is.  If I had it to do over again, I probably would include this as a choice.  There were other forms of potentially renewable energy I neglected to include as well, Solar Thermal, Small Scale Geothermal and Biomass.  However, the selection I did include allows for a good parsing of the attitudes on which of these is most likely to succeed vs not likely to succeed.

Now, because most respondents have a negative view of renewables overall, the top vote getter in this question was NOTHING is going to work to keep our modern techno-industrial culture going, and I tend to agree with that.  However, you do have the transition question to deal with, and where to invest the effort, time and money on which type of RE to develop as we spin down?

Generally the large scale projects such as Hydro plants and large Solar PV farms get a low ranking, and I agree with that.  Smaller scale distributed systems have better potential, particularly of the direct, low tech kind like Water Wheels and mechanical Windmills.  While these won't allow maintenance of a high tech society, they hold potential for keeping the slide from dropping all the way down to stone age technology and lifestyle.

One area I COMPLETELY disagree with the consensus is the high ranking of Human Slave Labor.  Of all these forms of energy conversion to work (Homo Saps aren't the energy here, just the machine.  The food they eat is the energy), Homo Saps easily have the lowest EROEI, it is actually probably negative.  It takes HUGE surplus of resources to run a slave society, besides the cost for keeping the slaves fed clothed and housed so they are available for work in a renewable fashion, you ALSO need a large class of Overseers and a Military to keep these slaves in line and not revolting.  While we may see some slave societies develop during this spin down, it is not likely they will last long, and definitely not renewable in a world of overall deficit.

If we could make a full conversion to Renewable Energy resources overnight, with the current climate conditions what would be the maximum population you think the Earth would support of Homo Saps sustainably, including all the Best Practices of Permaculture, Hydroponics and Aquaculture? (pick the choice closest to the number you think most likely)

 
 

>7.2 Billion People (current population or more)

 

7B

 

4B

 

1B

 

100M

 

10M

 

1M

 

100K

 

10K

 

<10K Homo Saps will go Extinct

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 30
(13%)
9
(4%)
40
(17%)
101
(44%)
26
(11%)
9
(4%)
6
(3%)
2
(1%)
1
(0%)
5
(2%)
28.92 229

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RES-4er

The population of <1B based on photosynthesis energy prior to fossil fuels wasn't all that sustainable as it was practiced. There was still extinctions of large species, soil degradation etc. With the addition of renewables I think 1B could be entirely sustainable.

Impossible to determine. I picked a number closest to global population as the industrial revolution began. We should expect to be able to maintain a population above that level due to subsequent technological advances – but disruptions will lower carrying capacity for a significant amount of time. Therefore, a population level as it was in pre-industrial times. 4 billion seems too optimistic.

Approx. the equivalent of world population pre-Columbus. In the Americas they were building soil and in Europe they were forestalling an ice age, roughly holding a balance. That is sustainable. Nuclear war or multiple meltdowns would cut that number because of contaminated land area.

Of all the questions on the survey, this one was of the most interest to me personally.  Reason for that is all the hubbub about Near Term Human Extinction you run across these days on all the collapse sites, not just on Guy McPherson's blog Nature Bats Last.  I was real curious as to how deeply this meme has penetrated among the average Kollapsniks, and apparently not too well.  Only 2% of the respondents think Homo Sap will drop below 10,000 Human Souls and then go Extinct.  That's the Good Newz here! 🙂

Now the Bad NewzBY FAR, the overall consensus amongst Kollapsniks is a population die off down to 1B Human Souls, maybe 12% of the current population.  There is no timeline to this question, but even if you figure it will take a full century to get down to that figure, that means for every year from now to 2116, you have to have more than 60M Deaths than Births in every single one of those years.  For scale here in ALL the years of WWII, 60M people died, about 3% of the World Population in 1940 estimated at 2.3B.  So basically here you would have to QUADRUPLE the death rate from WWII, and do that every year from now to 2116.  This scenario seems highly unlikely to me.

The more likely scenario is a crisis point to be reached, probably a year to a decade  in length where the world food supply drops and there is large scale starvation through many parts of the world.  I doubt this die off will stretch out over a century.  Can techno -industrial culture survive such a die off period with all the geopolitical problems and environmental problems resultant from it?  Burying the bodies alone will be an enormous task!  Even recycling them as Soylent Green will take a huge build out of infrastructure of Human Waste Recycling Centers!

Because of all these problems, while I think the Earth probably could support 1B Human souls, I voted an order of magnitude below that at 100M.  That is still a pretty good number though, and way short of extinction! 🙂  If we build a lot of good renewable energy infrastructure now, it could go a long way toward making the lives of the survivors better. 🙂

In what year do you expect to see the beginning of regular brownouts & blackouts and gas shortages in the United States? (choose the answer closest to the year you expect this to begin)

 
 

2017

 

2020

 

2025

 

2030

 

2040

 

Energy scarcity in the United States will not be a problem for the forseeable future. Renewable Energy will pick up the slack.

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 24
(10%)
65
(28%)
68
(30%)
34
(15%)
9
(4%)
29
(13%)
21.46 229

 

 

 

 

 

 

RES-5

It could happen sooner if the economy collapses before that. Also it will not be uniformly seen if it happens. Cities will likely continue to have electrical power as first priority customers due to population and political clout.

The US will be one of the last places to feel the squeeze on resources due to it's wealth. I do think the decline in oil production will be readily apparent in the early 2020's.

US has large amounts of natural gas plus coal to insure electrical supplies can be maintained for quite some time. Brown outs can also come from another form of "rationing" that is many people who fall out of the economy due to unemployment will use less energy thus freeing capacity for members of society who can afford electricity. This scenario assumes there are no major outbreaks of war or there is no large scale political/social upheaval. If any of those scenarios apply then all bets are off.

This question is a close second for me to Q4, because it puts a timeline on when BAU might really start to be disrupted in 1st World countries.  The general population of these countries will not recognize BAU is going the way of the Dinosaur until the basic services of LIGHTS at the FLICK OF A SWITCH no longer work and they can't get gas on demand at every pump from Anchorage to Key West to fill up the SUV.

The VAST majority of respondents put the date for this sometime between 2020 & 2025.  I went Long on that one at 2025, basically because I think Demand Destruction through the 3rd World countries will outpace the supply shortages.  However, it really could occur anytime due to either a Financial System collapse or a major Geopolitical Event.

To finish off now with the survey stats to date, here's a Snapshot of the Demographics we got so far here.

My Gender is:(optional)

 
 

Male

 

Female

 

Other

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 194
(84%)
33
(14%)
4
(2%)
83.57 231

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Age Range is:(Optional)

 
 

<18

 

18-24

 

25-29

 

30-39

 

40-49

 

50-59

 

60-69

 

70+

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 0
(0%)
5
(2%)
14
(6%)
30
(13%)
46
(20%)
59
(25%)
58
(25%)
20
(9%)
21.66 232

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Region of the World I live is:(Optional)

 
 

North America

 

Central America

 

South America

 

Europe

 

Asia

 

Africa

 

Middle East

 

Oceania (Australia-New Zealand)

 

Polynesia

 

India/Pakistan/Bangladesh

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 145
(62%)
1
(0%)
5
(2%)
56
(24%)
1
(0%)
1
(0%)
0
(0%)
23
(10%)
1
(0%)
0
(0%)
43.92 233

My highest level of formal education is:

 
 

 

High School Graduate

 

Some College or Technical School

 

Associate's Degree

 

Bachelor's Degree

 

Master's Degree

 

Doctorate Degree

Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 4
(2%)
3
(1%)
37
(16%)
9
(4%)
82
(35%)
75
(32%)
25
(11%)
30.61 235

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall, it is a well balanced group in terms of Age, although skewed more toward the older age groups.  You can parse the data by age group to look for differences in the spreadsheet.  Education levels also well represented, again weighted toward people with a higher level of formal education.  Still a highly male dominated sample, but improved here from 10% early on to 14% responses from Females.  Geographic distribution ended up mostly North America, Europe dropped to 24% and Oz/NZ held steady around 10%.

Far as selling Renewable Energy goes, at least inside the Collapse Blogosphere it appears this will be a very hard sell indeed, not sure how hard it will be to sell to the general public though.  After years of discussions on these topics from all sides, the majority of Kollapsniks do not see this as a means to maintain the techno-industrial lifestyle.  Even so, this does not mean Renewable Energy is not worth pursuing, there are many reasons that it is, even if it can't keep 7.2 Ambulatory Homo Saps walking the Earth at the same time in perpetuity.  It may work to make the downspin slower and more manageable.  It may work to make it possible for more Homo Saps to survive a dieoff event.  It may work to keep the spark of inovation alive and present opportunities in the future to find the Holy Grail of enough energy and ways to apply it to get off Planet Earth before the Sun Goes Red Giant.  I don't see that as very likely, but if you can keep this going to some extent, it might be possible over a few million years.  So you do the best you can given the parameters and limitations you have here.

The Future is a Mystery, and nobody can predict it absolutely.  Nobody has all the answers, hell nobody really even has all the data to make a concrete prediction on a system with so many variables.  So you  just need to follow the Imperative of ALL LIVING CREATURES, which is to STAY ALIVE, just as long as you can.  Life is not meant for QUITTERS like Guy McPherson.  They can all go into Hospice and count the days down until they die.

It Aint OVAH till the Fat Lady Sings.

http://allthingsd.com/files/2012/05/fat+lady+sings-feature.jpeg

10 Responses to The Renewable Energy Survey: RESULTS

  • I did not take the survey, because I found that I could not pigeon hole my opinions into the available options. But nevertheless, reading the results was interesting! The result that confirmed my own bias most was the about 10 year window until conditions in North American start to deteriorate, so that "we" significantly notice those problems …  Meanwhile, it seems that, for most people, circumstances continue to be business as usual, with no realistic worries about everything based on being able to strip-mine a finite planet.

    Personally speaking, it continues to be a relatively high probablity that I will die of some other "natural causes," long before any collective problems due to civilization behaving in criminally insane ways directly have effects upon my own little life.

    • P.S.

      Reading those results encouraged me to respond to another current events article in this way:

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-13/false-flag-blow-back-or-incompetence-forex-look-orlando-shooting

      False flag, blow-back, or incompetence?

      A FOREX look at Orlando Shooting
      _______________________________

      I agreed with the conclusion to that article:

      "To conclude, the US Dollar is backed by something, although it's not Gold. It's backed by bombs. That's more than can be said for many competing currencies, including the popular Bitcoin."

      My view is that money is measurement backed by murder, as the most abstract form of the ways that private property is claims backed by coercions. A corollary to that view is that cryptocurrencies are tiny parasites riding on bigger parasites. (Or tiny predators, riding on bigger predators, since the significant differences between parasites and predators are their distribution sizes.)

      The deeper levels of political problems that flow from the ways that the combined money/murder systems actually work are due to the history of successful warfare based upon backing up deceits with destruction, becoming successful finance based upon enforcing frauds. It is practically impossible to exaggerate the degree to which civilization operates through virtually infinite tunnels of deceits and frauds, especially because the limit case of those have become globalized electronic money frauds, backed by the threat of force from atomic bombs.

      One thing that is certain is the central and crucial roles of false flag attacks, and other promotions of misinterpretations of possible threats, which are metaphorically like firemen who are pyromaniacs. There is no easy way out of those deepening dilemmas. The history of the excessive successfulness of controlling civilization through the methods of organized crime has driven civilization towards runaway criminal insanities. The bigger background problems are that making "money" out of nothing as debts, because public governments enforce those frauds by private banks, has been able to "pay" for wars. More importantly, those fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems have been "paying" to strip-mine the planet's natural resources at an exponential rate.

      In my opinion, we are not much more than a decade away from the consequences of the exponential growth in the strip-mining of a fresh planet's natural resources from reaching some much more significant limits to growth, in the form of increasingly significant diminishing returns. At the present time, there are no politically feasible, saner ways that civilization can adapt to running into the limits of exponential growth. The most important underlying theme has become that the series of industrial revolutions enabled the strip-mining of the natural resources of a fresh planet, that had never before been subjected to those technologies. The ways that the industrial revolutions developed were based upon applications of the methods of organized crime, whereby the privatization of the planet was always based upon the series of short to medium term successes achieved through being able to enforce frauds, the most important of which were the ways that money is measurement backed by murder.

      The most intense paradoxes with respect to civilization being controlled by applications of the methods of organized crime are the corollaries that the social successfulness achieved by those means depends upon the vast majority of people not understanding that, because they have been conditioned to feel that they do not want to understand that. In my opinion, there is NO DOUBT that "the US Dollar is backed by something … It's backed by bombs." What makes the future too hyper-complicated to fully comprehend is that there are no genuine alternatives to that being the foundation of everything else. There must necessarily be some death control systems, and so, the murder systems are necessarily the central controls to the money systems, which is how and why we ended up with the existing systems being based on public governments enforcing frauds by private banks, while the overwhelming vast majority of people deliberately ignore those crucial social facts, which are of central significance to everything else.

      Since the murder systems are most socially successful by being the most deceitful and treacherous, our actually existing political economy is based upon enforcing frauds, and so, those fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, making "money" out of nothing as debts, have been publicly presented as if those were "paying" to strip-mine the natural resources of the planet, although those were really "paying" for nothing but the exponential growth of systems of organized lies operating robberies, which were turning the natural resources of the planet into garbage and pollution as fast as possible.

      It is my opinion that the exponential growth of the strip-mining of the planet is therefore getting worse, faster, and rushing towards the limits to that growth, in the form of the impacts of diminishing returns, while the vast majority of people are continuing to deliberately ignore and misunderstand that, because they were taught to deliberately ignore and/or misunderstand the ways that the combined money/murder systems were actually based upon being able to enforce frauds, which were thereby driven to become exponentially more fraudulent.

      Although I am sure that there are an abundance of creative alternatives, those can NOT provide any sufficiently integrated systems to compensate for the effects of having already strip-mined a fresh planet's natural resources. The fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems were NOT actually creating wealth, but rather, have been destroying wealth at an exponentially accelerating rate. Therefore, the underlying features of the fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems are the depletion of natural resources, being done in ways which can not be fully compensated for, nor accommodated to, by any set of possible creative alternative technologies, which are now known to currently be workable and be scaled up enough to work sufficiently. Despite there being an abundance of possible creative alternatives, which could be integrated into better systems, at the present time, it appears to be impossible for those to replace or substitute for the accumulating effects of the strip-mining of the planet, and thus, the underlying basic depletion of natural resources.

      Since it is CORRECT to assert that "the US Dollar is backed by something … It's backed by bombs," and since the existing debt slavery systems have generated numbers which have become debt insanities, those systems are headed towards provoking death insanities. Those runaway criminal insanities appear to be unstoppable due to the degree that all of the established sociopolitical systems are based upon a long history of triumphant deceits and frauds, which have become exponentially more deceitful and fraudulent, while, at the same time, those sociopolitical systems were dominated by the best available professional hypocrites, whose skill sets included being able to maintain attitudes of deliberate ignorance and misunderstanding towards what was really happening.

      Although the laws of nature are NOT going to stop working, and what actually exists does NOT violate the laws of nature, because what exists are combined money/murder systems, based upon enforcing frauds, that are most socially successful when most people do not understand that, and do not want to understand that, we are rushing faster and faster towards some foreseeable turning or tipping points, where the basic strip-mining of the natural resources of fresh planet, with the new technologies developed through the series of industrial revolutions, run into more and more serious limits to growth, as more and more serious diminishing returns.

      Overall, the main conclusion is that the foreseeable future must necessarily become exponentially increasing death insanities. That is especially the case because of the ways that those events will continue to be publicly presented in ways which are interpreted by professional hypocrites, who will continue to deliberately ignore and misunderstand how and why that is happening. Given that the underlying situation is the exponential growth of economic activities based upon strip-mining the planet's natural resources running into limits that can not be resolved by any feasible set of creative technologies (short of some series of technological miracles, which, by definition are extremely unlikely), there would not be any ways for civilization to cope with having done that than through provoking runaway death insanities (while any alternatives to that would require series of political miracles, which are even more unlikely than the technological miracles.)

      I agreed with the gist of that article above, that FOREX is an information clearing house for the financial systems based upon enforcing frauds, whose main manifestation has boiled down to "use US Dollars, or we'll bomb you." Since human beings live as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, money is necessarily measurement backed by murder. Moreover, the paradoxical ways that civilization thus operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime continues to have its corollaries that the vast majority of people do not understand that, because they do not want to understand that, and so, that automatically becomes more intense. The exponential increase of debt slavery, becoming debt insanities, has nowhere else to go but towards provoking death insanities. Therefore, we have barely begun to see that manifesting on the scales that one can most reasonably expect to occur in the foreseeable future of the 21st Century.

      Theoretically speaking, better resolutions of those problems would require enough people better understanding how and why "the US Dollar is backed by something … It's backed by bombs … use US Dollars, or we'll bomb you …" However, doing so would necessarily require developing better death control systems, with better murder systems as the most extreme manifestation of those. However, we are actually headed towards exponentially increasing death insanities, and therefore, the catalysis of those eruptions of death insanities into better death control systems appears to be politically impossible, without a lot more of those death insanities transpiring first.

      Personally speaking, my main objection is the degree to which all of the established sociopolitical systems are dominated by the best available professional hypocrites, who persist in deliberately ignoring and/or misunderstanding what is happening and why. Of course, I can understand the history of successful organized crime, which made and maintained that situation. But nevertheless, I continue to WISH for some series of technological miracles, surpassed by even greater political miracles, in order to perhaps decrease the degree to which there manifest runaway death insanities. Of course, the only marginally more realistic ways for irrational hopes to WISH for such miracles would be to find ways to marginally catalyze those death insanities towards some faster and better development of radically different death control systems, which adapted to having already strip-mined the natural resources of a fresh planet, in ways which enable a technological based civilization to continue to survive, rather than commit collective suicide.

      I REPEAT that I agreed with the article above stating "the US Dollar is backed by something … It's backed by bombs … use US Dollars, or the we'll bomb you …" because that is the currently dominant manifestation of the necessary ways that money is measurement backed by murder. Unless enough people understood that enough, then there are no ways to prevent the world dominated by professional hypocrites from driving those systems through exponentially increasing debt insanities, towards exponentially increasing death insanities. Overall, I feel that such a situation can be best described by the saying "we ain't seen nothing yet."

      In the article above, RE wrote:

      Now the Bad NewzBY FAR, the overall consensus amongst Kollapsniks is a population die off down to 1B Human Souls, maybe 12% of the current population.  There is no timeline to this question, but even if you figure it will take a full century to get down to that figure, that means for every year from now to 2116, you have to have more than 60M Deaths than Births in every single one of those years.  For scale here in ALL the years of WWII, 60M people died, about 3% of the World Population in 1940 estimated at 2.3B.  So basically here you would have to QUADRUPLE the death rate from WWII, and do that every year from now to 2116.  This scenario seems highly unlikely to me.

      In my view, that scenario appears to be too optimistic.

      Those death insanities shall be DEATH INSANTIES!

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  • Michael Rynn says:

    Multinational globalized , financialized, corporate empire, the equivalent of the petrie dish full of yeast, will strip the earth bare, during a collapse process. Sooner rather than later, as we consume everything thats left in the name of continued "economic growth" , during period of maximum rates of population growth, consumption of nature, global temperature rise, and mass extinctions.  Political power and  'wealth' inequality to grow until one human being has more than half of notional global wealth, until this becomes one half of next to nothing. Politicians everywere appear to be still keen on economic growth, instead of  managed strong contraction, while they are using this as cover for extreme wealth concentration, which conveniently causes collapse for the rest of us, while the gangster pyramid keeps the loot. Unfortunately not much help for nature here. Extreme competition destroys cooperation and conservation.

    The taking of everying from nature accelarates to the taking of the most marginal species habitats now remaining in Australia, as some state governments such as NSW attempt to strip all bio-diversity protection legislation and impediments to large scale land clearing. As for protection of Great Barrier Reef, its Coal and Gas industry still wants new projects on the queue at full throttle ahead, even while commodity prices are sinking into the sand.  Future invested global warming has already sealed the fate of GBR, and promised effort requiring infusions of money are guilt tokens.  Maybe the implosion of the entire civilization ponzi scheme by its screaming loud contradictions with reality and nature can save some of our species. All efforts to stave off early civilization collapse must be interpreted as harmful. All efforts to take out the remaining bits of nature are harmful. The process of collapse is itself also likely to be harmful to nature, due to destructive wars from resource conflicts, but we are also more likely to be destroying each others infrastructure, which will ensure fast collapse. We are fully setup for the conflagration of WWIII. Global dependence on declining strategic oil, plus or minus a few nuclear attacks,  will ensure a fast collapse. Global insanity rules.

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  • EtyerePetyere says:

    Whoever wrote this is a complete moron 

    "Because of all these problems, while I think the Earth probably could support 1B Human souls, I voted an order of magnitude below that at 100M.  That is still a pretty good number though, and way short of extinction!   If we build a lot of good renewable energy infrastructure now, it could go a long way toward making the lives of the survivors better. "

    this survey has nothing to do with human extinction due to climatechange because of loss of habitat and food . Has nothing to do with nuclear meltdown or war s due to reccource depletion this survey is purely technical regarding renewable energy . Nevermind small issues like phosphate ressources for growing food and stuff like rare earth metalls for renewables .. conviniently forgotten and now the idiot in question is mixing the human population issue in with estimates of 1b down to 100mill trying to makebelieve that thats the issue here and it is all good  which is a diversion 1b or 100 million it is all good no extinction . We won ! We make enough renewables for max one B. and the rest will lay down and die peacefully  of course . 

  • AntiTroll says:

    Doomstead Diner's message: there are tough times ahead. Everyone dies eventually, therefore whatever short life we have now is precious and must be treasured.

    Doomstead Diner's aim: to use community and creativity to help readers live as well as possible for as long as possible.

    Conclusion: RE is a benevolent and helpful person

    Guy McSerpent's message, parroted by the feeble minded Troll EmptyPempty alias EtyerePetyere: we will all die eventually hence we must give up all hopium now, nobody should plan for any future because there is no future.

    EmptyPempty's aim: to shit on as many people as possible and spread misery and harm. Toxic behaviour is the only way EmptyPempty gets his kicks, just as a toxic pedophile gets his kicks from raping children.

    Conclusion: the troll EmptyPempty is an evil malicious cunt.

    Even as EmptyPempty keeps repeating his poison, I will keep repeating these truths

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      “I imagine one of the reasons people cling to their hopes so stubbornly is because they sense, once hope is gone, they will be forced to deal with pain.”

  • AntiTroll says:

    "I imagine one of the reasons EmptyPempty clings to his toxic KoolAid so stubbornly is that he is a malicious cunt"

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