POST PEAK OIL SLIDES FOR DINERS

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on November 12, 2016

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Discuss this article at the Energy Table inside the Diner

fig1-eroiandfivefingers  fig2-fivefingers-contract  fig3-fivefingers-peace  fig4-fivefingers-flip

graph1a-murphy-nethubbertcurve  graph1b-brown-elm  graph2-murphybrown  graph3-net-energy-cliff

by Geoffrey Chia, November 2016

sameboatver1These slides (four figures followed by four graphs) are for any Diner readers who wish to explain the looming decline in global petroleum supply to their family, friends or community. This impending sudden energy curtailment will guarantee that the collapse of global industrial civilisation will be complete within 15 years (which is an exceedingly conservative estimate – Dr Louis Arnoux believes a 10 year timeline is more likely and I fear he is probably right). This does NOT mean we have a 10 or 15 year window to prepare for an offgrid fossil fuel free lifestyle, it means global industrial collapse will be complete by then.

Those fortunate enough to be able to prepare, have at best a 2 to 3 year window of opportunity, however it is possible that if global financial collapse occurs sooner, then our ability to act will be lost sooner.

The slides can be explained to your audience using background information from my previous Diner articles:

  • The appendices explaining EROEI from my articles "How the world works" parts i and ii

  • "Peak oil revisited part 1a"

  • "Open letter to TZM" which I wrote in lieu of my "Peak oil revisited part 2" article.

 

SOME BASIC FACTS:

  1. "Easy" oil (high net energy conventional petroleum on the upslope of the Hubbert curve) is the keystone commodity which enables industry and large scale agriculture (and the debt based economy) to function. Even the supply chains and infrastructures for coal, natural gas and nuclear energies require petroleum. Even the construction and maintenance of "renewable energy" infrastructure requires petroleum.

  2. "Difficult" oil (unconventional oil or conventional petroleum well past the Hubbert peak) is no substitute for easy oil. Unconventional oil is in fact a fools' errand and a financial scam. We will continue to extract post peak conventional oil until the net return falls off a cliff.*

  3. Oil price is an inaccurate and misleading index with which to judge oil availability. Price in itself is meaningless. What is important to the consumer is affordability.

  4. Gross production of crude oil (or other liquid hydrocarbons eg light tight oil) at the wellhead is meaningless. It is the NET availablity of refined petroleum products delivered to our point of consumption which is valuable to us, which enables us to do useful things. This is best analysed by EROEI methods** This idea is exactly analogous to the fact that your gross salary is meaningless and it is only your net income after business expenses and taxes which allows you to do useful things.

  5. Oil importing nations need to consider the rising domestic consumption of oil exporting nations (most exporters have increasing populations) when estimating the oil available in the coming years. This concept is the ELM which is simple primary school subtraction arithmetic. The ELM concept is also important to oil exporting nations because once their rising consumption curve intersects with their falling production curve, their oil export income will vanish to zero which will trigger economic collapse if they lack a diverse economy.

  6. The only realistic way to judge future net oil availability is therefore to superimpose the ELM curve on the post peak NET Hubbert curve

  7. One of the biggest impediments to public understanding of these urgent issues (apart from people equating low oil prices with petroleum abundance) is faulty linear or symmetrical thinking. It may take 10 minutes to build a Jenga tower, however once it reaches its maximum height, it will NOT gradually decline over another 10 minutes. It will suddenly collapse in a split second. Similarly the graph showing that Net oil availability falls of a cliff once EROI goes below 5:1 explains why societies will suddenly shift from a seemingly "normal" lifestyle, to severe privation in the blink of an eye.

sameboatver2

Footnotes:

*The only possible carbon neutral substitutes for petroleum are either: biofuels from algae (which must NOT encroach on food producing areas) OR artificial photosynthesis, both of which I discussed in various articles dating back to 1999 (first in the Australian Skeptic journal). As things now stand, the former cannot be scaled up and the latter remains a pipe dream. Hoping for a breakthrough in either in the next couple of years is like depending on a lottery win to pay off your mortgage, the false hope of a fool. Furthermore, energy decline is but one of many threats which will cause civilisation to collapse, the others being depletion of other resources, climate catastrophe and ecosystem destruction, all driven by the massive consumer and waste footprint of 7.5 billion homo stupidus. The key measures to survive must therefore be simplification of individual lifestyles by reduction of consumption and waste production (ideally combined with "closing the loop" eg using humanure for local crop production). Population reduction will take care of itself in the form of massive human die-off ,which may occur over decades (famines, regional wars, epidemics especially among war and climate refugees and the spread of tropical vectors) or may occur overnight (global thermonuclear war).

 

**EROI analytical methods continue to be refined by those working in the field. At this time, even basic definitions are unclear, for example, what exactly are "Energy Returned" and "Energy Invested"?

Consider a post peak "nodding donkey" oil rig which requires saline to be actively injected into the oil well to enable a saline/crude oil mix to be extracted. Saline injection is performed by a diesel pump, hence that diesel is the "Energy Invested". That diesel is a refined petroleum product which has been delivered to its final point of consumption.

In order to compare apples with apples, we should therefore define the Energy Returned NOT in the form of crude oil, but in the form of refined petroleum products which have been delivered their final points of consumption. I would argue that "Energy returned" is NOT the calorific value of the crude oil produced at the wellhead. Crude oil in itself is NOT a useful energy source, it is nothing more than a toxic pollutant. Energy Returned must be the calorific value of the refined petroleum products derived from the crude oil and delivered to their final points of consumption. Energy Returned must subtract the sum of energies required to transport the crude oil to the refinery, to refine that crude into usable petroleum products and to transport those refined products to their final destinations.

Please not that this Energy Returned is NOT the same as Net Energy available.

Net Energy available is Energy Returned from the previous cycle of energy production MINUS the Energy Investment required for the next cycle of energy production.

EROEI is Energy Returned DIVIDED by Energy Invested.

Previous overestimations of EROEI were because ER was defined as the calorific value of crude oil produced at the wellhead which in my view is inappropriate and does not reflect the real world.

Clearly using solar or wind energy to power a "nodding donkey" pump will increase the net energy gain from a depleting well, which may be a final act of desperation for many producers.

G. Chia Nov.2016

38 Responses to POST PEAK OIL SLIDES FOR DINERS

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    I disagree with this . Germany went into WW2 Using coal to fuel conversion and almost won that world war . Also South Africa under apartheid embargo was using the same method and had the most vibrant economy in all africa and most of the world . There is still plenty  coal to do this now worldwide to counteract any kind of diminishing oil EROEI .  Climate will do us in before energy shortage

    • Dennis Mitchell says:

      There really is no fixing stupid. I know our death won't be painless let's pray it's fast.

       

    • Davebee says:

      I live in South Africa and I'm fully up to speed on SASOL and the original SASOL plant was started using German ingenuity, we all know that, but here's the big problem with oil from coal: TRANSPORT of that coal from the mines to the SASOL processing faciltiy or facilities, unless there is some form of cheap transportation as in canals then ALL that transportation of the raw fossil fuel or coal will have to be done using DIESEL either by diesel train locos or DIESEL trucks. In the South Africa of the 1970's the railways were pretty good and ran on electricity mainly, however since the present gang of corrupt ANC Klowns took and kicked the white expertise into the ditch the railways have declined to the usual African TRANSFORMATION or degradation status and are a national disgrace, quite incapable of carrying the coal requirements of SASOL. Locally we are stuffed bothways, oil up the shoot and SASOL/railways likewise.

      SASOL by the way was never a great winner and as I vividly recall in the 1970's here in South Africa during the so-called apartheid days SASOL required a large taxpayer funded subsidy to operate in any case. It wasn't financially viable at all. The main reason SASOL 'worked' was that the apartheid government was under severe oil sanctions and SASOL was a last ditch effort. Sorry pal, oil from coal is indeed a bottom of the barrel trick and its EROI wont cut it to keep us in Happy Motoring Land forever and ever. Cheers.

      • EtyerePetyere says:

        " wont cut it to keep us in Happy Motoring Land forever and ever". I am not talking forever . We all know that liquid fuels oil in particular will be harder to come by in the not so far future I am talking about the temporary replacement or substitution of those fuels . Thats what germani ,SA did . and they did spendidly . If it comes to that the whole wold will follow . Or what else ? You think the world will lay down and die instead ? NO ! They will do it . No matter what 

  • Anti Troll says:

    Hey EmptyPempty, you are wrong, stupid. Oil from coal is unconventional oil. Unconventioinal oils have lousy EROI which Nicole Foss likened to bending over and sucking stale drops of beer out of a floor mat. Conventional oil is the same as sitting comfortably at a bar and downing an ice cold mug of clean, fresh beer. Oil from coal is the last desperate act of a country losing a war (just as Japanese desperately gathered pine cones to extract turpentine to power their last kamikaze zeros on one way missions). Hitler lost the war when he lost access to conventional oil from Azerbaijan. Oil from coal cannot support industrial civilization as we know it, any more than oil from pine cones, although I am sure there are plenty of stupid people out there who will attempt it in a last final blast of obscene fossil fuel emissions.

    • JJ says:

      Peak Coal. Given CURRENT demand

      "Research in 2009 by the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that global coal extraction could peak sometime between the present and 2048.[2] A 2007 study by the German Energy Watch Group predicted that global peak coal extraction may occur sometime around 2025 at 30 percent above the 2005 rate". 

      Add in the demand for liquid fuels to the current demand for coal, and lets not forget demand for both (solid coal and liquid fuels) is increasing, and peak coal will likely follow quickly on the heels of peak oil – yes it may provide breathing room before total industrial energy collapse. But only a little breathing room. Large scale adoption of such coal to oil technologies will be a CLEAR proof that peak oil has been reached, for anyone with half a brain. And it will probably be closely related to both an economic collapse and environmental chaos collapse that the cause(s) will not be clear to even the most well informed analyzer.

      The way to bet is that collapse is coming for multiple reasons one reason feeding into the next in a feedback mechanism so complex that no one can really say which one is the ‘real’ collapse, nor which one they should tackle first to mitigate the disaster of a collapse we will be in.

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    Unconventionl or not , when it comes to energy it doesn`t matter  if is is unconventional or not it is energy and thats what counts . That unconventional energy almost  have enabled Nazi germany to conquer the world had the americans not entered the war even  the brits would have had their asses handed to them after all europe was conquered by unconventional eroei fuel . And what about the chinese and India today the economic powerhouses of the world they are beating the rest of the world just due to the fact that they are powering their economy by coal . And coal is still plenty . Energy constraint will never happen . When it comes to that they just will strictly restrict fuel usage to industry and agriculture  that should take care of basic needs  . little inconvinience for people to use public transportation but thats all anything else will just go on as usual . Climate will do us in way before that 

  • Anti Troll says:

    The troll EmptyPempty just cannot help himself. He obsessively monitors the Diner to ensure he is the first to comment on any new article. He invariably engages his mouth before his brain, thereby repeatedly exposing his ignorance and inability to learn, the very definition of a fool. There is only one ideology this shithead repeatedly parrots: near term extinction from climate change, for which he offers only hopelessness and nihilism. A self appointed McSerpent bitch. Nothing else exists in his fucked up mind even though there are very real threats more urgent and compelling that sensible people must be aware of and deal with: financial collapse being most urgent, then energy collapse which is tied to economic collapse. Climate events will devastate local areas intermittently but will NOT cause human extinction by 2030, an obsession NOT based on reasonable science and which NOBODY believes except McSerpent and his bitches.

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Funny i just have been reading this http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/its_worse_than_you_think_20161111

      "We face the most profound crisis in human history. Our response is to elect a man to the presidency who does not believe in climate change. Once societies unplug themselves from reality, those who speak truth become pariahs and enemies of the state. They are subject to severe state repression. Those lost in the reverie of the crisis cult applaud the elimination of these Cassandras. The appealing myths of magical thinking are pleasant opiates. But this narcotic, like all narcotics, leads to squalor and death."

       

       

  • Anti Troll says:

    The troll EtyerePetyere alias EmptyPempty thinks that, just like the Nazi propagandists, if he repeats his bullshit ideas enough he can persuade people towards his fucked up way of thinking. Whereas endless bullshit may work among the stupid zombie masses, it does not work here among intelligent Diner readers, so EP you have chosen the wrong forum to post your crap, you brainless Canuck douchebag.

    Lets explore his repeated assertion: That the Nazis were able to operate their war machine smoothly on CTL (coal to liquids) and might have defeated Britain if not for the US entering WW2. WRONG. The real turning point of WW2 was in 1942 when Hitler, on the advice of his astrologer, chose to divert his forces toward capturing Stalingrad rather than secure the oilfields in Azerbaijan. As we know, the Nazis froze to death around Stalingrad that winter and also lost their access to the conventional oilfields of Azerbaijan. The Nazis after that faced CERTAIN defeat because they were STARVED of significant NET liquid fuels and were fighting eastern and western fronts against the Allies who maintained COPIOUS supplies of NET liquid fuels. Did the USA entering battle help shorten the European war? Yes, but contrary to US propaganda, the Allies would still have inevitably won WITHOUT the US entering battle. Could the Nazis have defeated Britain and Russia (without the USA) using CTL? Absolutely ZERO chance, although Nazi desperation did not stop them from trying.

    Towards the end of WW2 most of the battle capable German males aged 18 to 50 years old had died or been maimed. Hence the Nazis resorted to conscripting children and teenagers. Could the Nazis have won the war with a few wet-behind-the ears boys against battle hardened adult male Ally soldiers who were many, many times more numerous? Absolutely ZERO chance. That did not stop the Nazis from such desperate conscription. Same thing with CTL which was the last desperate act of deluded Germans whose defeat was already guaranteed.

    CTL will no doubt be attempted by the fools who run this dying industrial civilization as a last desperate act. The EROI is pathetic, even worse than shale oil. Our energy descent will be precipitous and CTL will not prevent that, any more than shale oil or any other unconventional oil can prevent that. Such energy descent will cause global economic collapse. Without an economy, there is no industry. We will never "run out" of oil, there will still be oil from whatever sources produced by TPTB to fly their Lear jets to the Bilderberg conference and to fuel the drones which will bomb and strafe the restless masses. But in the near future there will no longer be affordable fuel at roadside pumps for Joe sixpack to access. So Diners must prepare now. That is the message from RE. Save as many as you can.

    Or you can believe EmptyPempty that climate change will cause extinction before energy descent occurs and do nothing. A toxic, harmful, useless and DELUDED message. Hey EmptyPempty, you must set an example for your nihilism and commit suicide immediately. That is the only way you can be of any use to humanity, by removing your useless and deluded carcass from society. Of course we know you have no interest in being of use to humanity. You are just a parasite.

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    The "Ant" has spoken . However i said NEVER that germany won the war . They almost did . They conquered europe all the way to Moskau and some of africa and the middle east . All that on LOW  EROEI  fuel coal to liquid .  The other Precedent  SA. a western standard industrial nation for decades . It cannot be denied . What i also have said that  it might wont be powering a full scale consumer society with all its privileges and conviniences  but it will power mass public transportation and agriculture and freight transport to supply basic needs . The world will go on on this until climate will do us in  as yourself "ANT"  the winter will also take you 

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty has deliberately chosen to misread and misrepresent my post, the usual tactic of a TROLL. Read it properly you idiot before you post things and prove you are an even bigger idiot. EPs mindless parroting of Guy McSerpent's position befits the mentality of a fanatical disciple. The reason McSerpent has ignored energy issues and belittled experts such as Nicole Foss is because he has limited knowledge of the energy issues and has tunnel vision regarding climate change. McSerpent's prime motivation is to create an extinction cult around himself with him being the central authority figure and he can hardly be that if he needs to explore energy issues which turn out to be more pressing than climate issues.

    Once again: CTL will no doubt be attempted by the fools who run this dying industrial civilization as a last desperate act. The EROI is pathetic, even worse than shale oil. The yield is so poor that the USA, even with its "abundant" coal reserves, prefers to seek super deep water oil or shale oil or tar sands oil or offshore Arctic oil (which failed) before resorting to CTL which is one of the worst of many bad options. Our energy descent will be precipitous and CTL will not prevent that, any more than any other unconventional oil can prevent that. Such severe energy descent will cause global economic collapse. Without an economy, there is no industry. We will never "run out" of oil, there will still be oil from whatever sources produced by TPTB to fly their Lear jets to the Bilderberg conference and to fuel the drones which will bomb and strafe the hungry rebellious masses. But in a few short years there will be no affordable fuel at roadside pumps for Joe sixpack to access. So Diners must prepare now. That is why we frequent the Diner and are interested in RE's messages. NBL fanatics should piss off back to NBL.

    • Disaffected says:

      Not sure who the "troll" is here. Although I tend to agree with many if not most of your points, I think your hysterical rants against McPherson and EP here are undermining your case in the extremis and call me to question your motives. I suspect whether it's one (peak oil, peak energy, peak finance etc.) or the other (peak climate change) won't really matter all that much to most of us, as what it will REALLY be about is peak humanity; which simply means the end of you, me, and whatever we collectively call "culture." Not that we'll long be missed. And by the way, yes WE WILL eventually run out of oil. First effectively, then absolutely, should we last that long, although we probably won't. Not that it will make any difference. And there WILL BE NO effective preparation for that eventuality, should we even try to perpare for it, which our recent history has already indicated that we won't. I'm perfectly ok with that. Are you?

  • Anti Troll says:

    Disaffected, you may not have encountered EmptyPempty's previous posts which were abusive, vulgar and profane, a stereotypical TROLL and replies in kind to him are simply what he deserves. He does seem to have toned down after repeated pummeling which vindicates this strategy.

    A more reasoned and even tempered person such as yourself deserves a reasoned and even tempered response and your criticism of me is well taken.

    You are right that I oppose McSerpent's extinction cult and nihilistic ideology and if you look back, the only single abiding message emanating from all of EmptyPempty's posts is the NBL ideology, which is useless and destructive. We will all die but if we can minimize the suffering up till that point then that will be worthwhile. And we can do a LOT to minimize it.

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Peak Oil is DEAD  they just found another shitload of the stuff http://www.businessinsider.com/usgs-estimates-20-billion-oil-barrels-in-texas-wolfcamp-shale-formation-2016-11  i rest my case  The largest oil deposit ever found in America was just discovered in Texas

      • Ken Barrows says:

        What does 20 billion mean?  First, they are already drilling extensively in the area.  Second, it's that EROEI again.  Reserves can be adjusted radically:  Monterey Shale was downgraded 96% a couple of years back. Regardless, yes, climate will get us.

        • EtyerePetyere says:

          Thats almost a trillion $ at todays low low prizes . In comparison it is something like 40% of all chinas cash reserves 

      • Kassandra21 says:

        The largest oil deposit ever found in America was just discovered in Texas

        No, it wasn't. We're talking about the "Wolfcamp Formation" here. This is not a discovery by any means, because Wolfcamp has been exploited for years.
        You may rest your case as long as you like, but that doesn't change reality. So – what do we have here?

        1. The USGS did an assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of the Wolfcamp shale in the Permian basin. That's it. They guessed. Nothing more, nothing less. The great estimation of the Monterey Shales in California have already been mentioned by others. 96% reduction of an estimation – speak of bullshit.

        https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-estimates-20-billion-barrels-oil-texas-wolfcamp-shale-formation

        2. Even if there were 20 billion barrels – they are not worth 900 billion dollars. That's for plain idiots who can't do the math. Oil isn't converted into useful things by magic. So – what would this oil be worth at todays prices? A whopping 500 billion in losses, dear friend. That's because fracking is expensive, no matter what the oil industrie wants to make believe.

        http://www.artberman.com/permian-giant-oil-field-would-lose-500-billion-at-todays-prices/

        3. Even if there were 20 billion barrels and even if there were no costs getting them in your SUV's tank – the world consumes 33 billion barrels a year at the moment. Therefore this little blob of yet undiscovered oil in Texas doesn't change the big picture in the slightest.

        I have one of the Cassandras here to speak for my case. The notorious doomsayers of Bloomberg.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead

        Discovery of oil is declining since the early 70s. Fact. And that's even though the technology of exploring has been evolved tenfold since then.

        I conclude that there is no "oil discovery" in Texas, it is not even an "oilfield" and it's not worth a yawn even it it were real. Feel free to refute my arguments. With arguments, not lousy denial.

        Oh – on your dismal argument of Hitler using CTL in WW II. I am a German and you should perhaps consider learning at least something about wartime history in Europe. Want to know where that oil came from that Hitler used to slam his tanks down Polands throat? It came from the Russians. Stalin was even delivering coal to Nazi Germany because there was not enough of it in the Reich to scale up the CTL plants. The last of the soviet coal trains passed the eastern border just the morning of 'Barbarossa'.

        No one with the slightest understanding of economics has ever found CTL to be economically feasible. Hitler gave a shit because a wartime government always gives a shit about financial feasibility. He needed the stuff for his tanks and it's technologically possible to turn coal to gasoline. And that's all Hitler wanted to know.

        Ask yourself two questions: If there is so much coal in the US and CTL ist such a brilliant thing, why are you importing millions of barrels of oil a day from the Saudis?
        And if Nazi Germany was that good with CTL and had nearly won the war because of it (your statement) – why did Germany start losing the war after not getting to the oilfields in the Middle East/Caucasus?

        Have a nice life, in what universe ever.

         

  • Anti Troll says:

    Mr Barrow: good point about the Monterey shale exaggerated claims. That is what the oil industry does – they lie. Saudi Arabia tells us they have infinite reserves and peak oil never existed. Any investors for their IPO?
    What is a Troll? Definition 1: someone who tries to sabotage a blog with lies, misrepresentation and deceit, to advance their own personal agenda. The worst ones here are EtyerePetyere alias EmptyPempty the climate extinctionist and Bob "worse than a pedophile" Simpson, the climate denialist, who are polar opposites in ideology but both equally malicious.

    Definition 2: RE has called EmptyPempty a Troll, hence EP is a Troll. This being RE's blog there can be no further argument about this fact.

    I found this blog to be a haven of honest truth in a world of lies, containing thoughtful contributions from many sensible thinkers who offer useful advice. I lurked silent and appreciative for a long time. But I eventually got pissed off no end by EmptyPempty's endless toxic pollution and have decided to treat him as he deserves.

    EP's previous posts have shown him to be a racist and misogynist and the comments above show his admiration for the racist Nazi and racist fascist South African apartheid regimes. He grossly exaggerated the ability of both regimes to function on CTL, which is the fuel of last resort by a collapsing industrial establishment. The SA apartheid regime (SAAR) DID NOT function as a successful industrial economy on CTL, contrary to EP's stupid claim. A successful industrial economy eg Japan or Sweden has a high per capita productivity and offers a good standard of living for the majority of its inhabitants. SAAR was a fascist, racist, brutalist society which exploited the majority who were kept in abject poverty ie it functioned mainly on the basis of feudalism and neo-slavery. Only a tiny minority in SAAR enjoyed the benefits of the industrial output of CTL. That situation could not be sustained and its reliance on the woefully inadequate CTL (among other factors) led to its inevitable political collapse and the abolition of apartheid, so that international sanctions could be lifted and the new SA establishment could then import high net energy oil.

    When the USA eventually resorts to CTL (which it will in desperation), we will see it spiral even further down into a fascist, racist, brutalist society which exploits the majority for the benefit of a tiny minority and it will be a heartbeat away from complete industrial collapse. This will happen well before climate chaos kills the majority of humanity.

    It is easy for a Troll to make stupid sweeping one line assertions and takes time and effort to debunk them. Nevertheless I do so to keep exposing to the world the indisputable fact that EmptyPempty is a noxious Troll of low intelligence worth less than a lump of shit (which at least can be used as fertilizer). EmptyPempty is more like toxic sludge, and this blog and this planet will be much much better off without that Troll who is worth less than a piece of crap.

     

    • RE says:

      I tend to agree that Trolls are quite an annoying feature of the internet, and EP certainly is one.

      At the same time, I have a lot of trouble with completely banning people for Trolling.  What I try to do these days is keep things within reason, and not let trolling behavior get out of hand.  My “No Moderation” policy in the early years of the Diner was an Epic Failure, the Trolls went Wild.  However, if you ban all of them, you get no contrary opinions and then everyone is just preaching to the choir, and that is boring.

      So, I try to strike a balance.  Not EZ though.

      RE

      • EtyerePetyere says:

        There has to be a balance . Somebody who has common sense and tell you that there wont be a survivalist utopia with geodomes and solar panels on top of bugout vans where you can also go  to town once in a while to get some beer . what is your immagined bugout existence wich in reality is an  extended camping trip phantasy of yours Wake up  Without my insights you people would never take of your rose colored sunglasses and see things for what they really are . 

        • RE says:

          Once Beer is unavailable, Extinction will follow shortl thereafter.

          However, in “How I Survived Collapse”, the community has its own Brewer and Distiller, not to mention the hydroponically grown Ganga! 🙂

          RE

  • Anti Troll says:

    Appreciate all your good work, RE.

    EmptyPempty's promotion of another shale oil scam as "proof" that peak oil is "dead" shows again what an total fucktard he is. He is not interested in learning anything from the articles here and his sole purpose at the Diner is to pollute this blog with his own contrarian bullshit and puff himself up. Every post by EP, when properly examined, exposes him even more as a total fucktard.

    Norman Pagett previously said that money is a proxy for energy. Many authors, especially Steve Ludlum showed how financially unviable shale oil is. Shale scams are leading us to another financial collapse worse than 2008. This graph shows how the Bakken, the most productive of them, has been a massive money loser for all its investors: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Bakken-Cumulative-Negative-Free-Cash-Flow-Likvern.png

    Only morons will invest in future shale scams after being burned by previous shale scams. Future shale projects need funding NOW to start producing a decade from now. The negative returns from existing shale and impending financial collapse because of these shale scams ensures there will be NO startup funding for further shale now or in the near future except by the most idiotic of morons (or by fascist governments)

    So EP, exactly how is it that any glossy prospectus for a future "multibillion barrel" future shale project can save us from oil depletion and economic turmoil? What an idiotic moron. Hey EP, go ahead and sell everything and invest it all in shale. Put your money where your mouth is.

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Shale oil , Coal to gas coal to fuel  whatever it takes the planet will be drillet until climate collapse and human extinction it cant it wont be halted . People will not be lieing  to die they will try to survive until they can . When they cant they will die and thats due to habitat loss due to climatechange . Maybe an all out nuclear war will shorten the demise . No other options . And that sooner than later 

  • Anti Troll says:

    If EmptyPempty's goal is to keep demonstrating what a retarded douchebag he is, he never fails to disappoint. He dismisses Elon Musk's technofantasies (duh) and yet believes CTL and shale oil scams can preserve this economic/industrial system. As I said before, you need to sell everything and invest in those "schemes" otherwise you are just a blowhard douchebag.

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty previously posted the overblown mainstream media claim about the "20 billion barrel" Wolfcamp shale and accordingly he declared that "peak oil is dead".

    Here are more properly considered views about that bogus oil "bonanza" and accordingly I declare that EmptyPempty is braindead.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/11/18/the-midland-basin-wolfcamp-shale-is-not-worth-900-billion-thats-not-how-resource-economics-works/#56338c9e2197

    http://peakoil.com/production/peak-oil-in-a-fact-free-world-the-new-oil-bonanza-in-west-texas

    er, exactly who is wearing rose colored glasses?

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Every "little counts" and this is also  not little this is a lot . Almost a year worth of world consumption . and there is more every year and all kind of other places where they are finding oil gas . Now comes the arctic and than the antarctic and the oceans everything will be drilled till the end . No stopping this Only chatastrophic climatechange due to habitat loss will stop it by killing humans  . Why ? because people will be not laying down and die until they can get oil out of the ground or produce it by any other means to keep themselves alive . 

  • Anti Troll says:

    Not going to let EmptyPempty worm his way out of this one, even as he wriggles around trying to make himself look less stupid. All the garbage he has written remains on record for the world to see. To recap:

    EP's original message was this: CTL will allow industrial civilization to function "well", just as CTL helped Nazi and South African apartheid regimes run their industries "well" (he oozes glowing admiration for those racist, fascist regimes, betraying his political bent) and the Nazis using CTL could have beaten Britain if not for the US entering WW2.  Utter crap.

    EP then claimed peak oil is "dead" because of the Wolfcamp shale and climate change will render everyone extinct before economic/industrial collapse. Hence no point anyone preparing for industrial collapse and everybody should just accept the ideology of near term climate extinction. This NTE message is exactly the same as those found in ALL of EmptyPempty's posts which are ALL useless, just as EP is completely useless and a brainless parrot of Guy McSerpent's death cult.

    Many far more knowledgable and intelligent experts such as Richard Heinberg and Chris Martensen (who has interviewed many petroleum scientists) and Nicole Foss to name a few show that financial/economic/industrial collapse are imminent and are directly related to our ongoing energy descent which will rapidly worsen in the near future and will cause global economic/industrial collapse well before climate change kills off most of humanity.

    The few remaining dribbles of oil from unconventional sources will only accessible to the rich 0.1% and will NOT be accessible to the plebs who will bear the brunt of economic collapse and die miserably EXCEPT for those who prepare for collapse in advance.

    Hence this is the message from the Diner: prepare now, there is lots to be done, save as many as you can.

    Here is a message to EmptyPempty: all your words are useless and toxic and you are useless and toxic, so piss off and go kill yourself.

     

     

     

     

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    More and more and more is being found and will be found and extracted as time progresses just one more example http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html
    The “ANGST” did i want to say “The ANTS” denial is understandable he is still stuck on the lower evolutionary level of insect survival thinking which is denial of basics http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2392357743 no problem https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RfUj09pWfM&t=3s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RfUj09pWfM

  • Anti Troll says:

    Hey, EmptyPempty, the links you cite remind me of the global warming denialism links that Bob "worse than a pedophile" Simpson loved to cite, toxic bullshit lies and distortions. Do you believe Obamasama's claims of US "energy independence" and the US becoming an oil exporter greater than Saudi Arabia? Who's wearing rose colored glasses now? You are so full of useless blabber it is no longer funny. The only way you can gain credibility in this world is if you

    – kill yourself, thus proving you are a serious disciple of the death cult you advocate

    – sell everything and invest in shale oil

    – piss off to join McSerpent's death cult in Belize where you can serve as the village idiot which is the only thing you are able to do with "excellence"

    (not necessarily in that order)

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      IN a field one summer’s day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart’s content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest.

        1

        “Why not come and chat with me,” said the Grasshopper, “instead of toiling and moiling in that way?”

        2

        “I am helping to lay up food for the winter,” said the Ant, “and recommend you to do the same.”

       

      I got it "ANT-i" ! You maybe should get this  .. The issue is not energy availability the issue is katactismic climatechange brought to you by burning these ressourches wich are plenty . You should know it better as an "ANT " since you are busy to do so right now and in your alleged future of survival for the winter  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/donald-trump-climate-change-policy-global-warming-expert-thomas-crowther-a7450236.html

  • Anti Troll says:

    Hey EmptyPempty, you are a shit stain TROLL just like Bob Simpson, you being a peak oil denialist and Simpson being a global warming denialist. Here are quotes from the Forbes article about the Wolfcamp shale I cited earlier:

    A deposit of something is not an economic asset. It is only once we have worked out whether we can extract that resource, using current technology, and at current prices, and make a profit, that we can call it a mineral reserve…

    It is said, for example, that the North Sea has $5 trillion of gold in it. But it would cost $20 trillion to extract it, which is why we don't and we use it to grow cod in, not as a gold mine. Net value matters, gross value doesn't.

    Same thing for oil and for EROI. Net energy matters, gross energy doesn't. Evaporation of net energy is crashing our economies and industries way FASTER than climate change can render humanity extinct. McSerpent's prediction of NTE by 2030 is STUPID and is only believed by STUPID people. Is that clear yet or are you even more stupid than we can possibly imagine?

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    U.S. Oil Exports Skyrocket 

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-oil-exports-skyrocket-despite-climate-pacts-20930

    "Seven years ago, the U.S. exported its crude oil to just one country — Canada. This year, 22 countries received American crude oil, marking a more than 1,000 percent increase in U.S. oil exports since 2009, according to U.S. Department of Energy data released this week".
    During the first nine months of 2016, overall U.S. oil exports increased by about 8 percent over the same period in 2015 and more than 1,284 percent since 2009, according to EIA data. Until this year, Canada received most U.S. oil exports. American crude is shipped to Curacao, China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Singapore, the Netherlands and 16 other countries.

  • Anti Troll says:

    Hey moron: Are you so stupid as to keep believing the MSM bullshit? Fact: US "oil exports" are only selected fractions of oil which are excess to US consumption HOWEVER the USA has CONTINUED to be a NET IMPORTER of oil despite the so called "unconventional oil revolution". Net oil importer = NOT oil independent.

    Also, so-called US unconventional crude is NOT crude, it is LTO, light tight oil, ie lighter fractions of volatile fracked oil which have been blowing up regularly in the "bomb trains"

    The mainstay which continues to prop up industrial civilization REMAINS conventional oil.

    Unconventional oils and all those gazillions of "new oil discoveries" don't mean dogshit. There is a huge difference between "technically recoverable" and "economically recoverable". The existing "growth" economy CANNOT legitimately support ANY unconventional oil schemes (they are only done using massive financial fraud – which is not sustainable) nor can it function on the small net energy returns of unconventional oil. Therefore this current system is GUARANTEED to collapse and will be replaced by either fascistic economies which will abandon any pretense of a "free market" and enforce unconventional oil extraction which will be produced in pathetic quantities (which will only benefit the 0.1%), or the existing system will give way to Mad Max chaos, in which case NO further oil extraction will be possible.

    I repeat: if you want credibility you need to sell everything and invest it all in unconventional oil schemes, otherwise you have no skin in the game and are just a blowhard douchebag.

  • EtyerePetyere says:

    There is plenty fossil fuel left  for to blow up  the atmosphere . And so will be it .  And there will be plenty left after for no one to use 

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty: your endless stupid opinions are extremely boring. What I found fascinating however is your declaration that your TROLL activities here are "excellent" (??!!??!!??). I mean, really?? You also said you had "many" excellent aspects to your life. Well pray tell us, what are they?

    Hint: If you claim McSerpent has praised you for giving excellent head, we may concede that as a valid skill. However if you claim that pushing your beat up shopping trolley full of urine soaked blankets around Stanley Park while muttering to yourself is "living a life of excellence"…well…not so much (even though we know it is true)

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