TUMBLING DOWN THE NET HUBBERT CLIFF

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Published on The Doomstead Diner on November 27, 2016

SenecaCliff

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I gave a mini presentation at a Griffith University “sustainable economy” seminar on 29 November 2016 https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B21KVqpkTSnrQ2haWFAwaU5MRjQ/view As the themes were slanted towards “business opportunities”, I chose this title for my talk: “Tiny House Communities: grassroots solutions for those with sufficient initiative to exit a collapsing industrial civilisation”. In my pre-conference paper/abstract submission to the GCSE, I made it clear I was going to talk about much more than just tiny houses. Ultimately I spent only 5 minutes talking about tiny house communities and 15 minutes talking about our collapsing industrial civilisation. I focused especially on the sudden global energy descent we will soon be facing and tried to explain the key concepts with my “post peak oil” slides http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2016/11/12/post-peak-oil-slides-for-diners/

I received the usual denialism response I have come to expect from one individual in particular, a person who in a previous session advocated that if only we use objective science to persuade the public, we can transform society and create a great future. That person also said we should not convey negative messages to the public because that would alienate them. I had neither the time nor inclination to engage with that person. I did not bother to point out the obvious contradiction in his position: that objective science unequivocally shows our future to be dire, which by necessity will convey a “negative” message to the public.

At a subsequent main session, Professor Susanne Becken, a highly acclaimed professor of “sustainable tourism”, spoke about Peak Oil and Aviation and projected this slide from the International Energy Agency on the screen:

tumblingdownthenethubbertcliff_html_m1e90c2e4

 

To her credit she couched those IEA future oil projections in cautionary terms and advised the audience NOT to invest in the aviation industry.

As an audience member at the Q&A session, I made this comment and posed this question to her (I paraphrase here. The event was recorded and my exact words may be audible if Griffith eventually post the session as a webcast):

I was amused to see the IEA slide you displayed, which included “oil yet to be found” and “oil yet to be developed” in the projection of future oil available, which made the future total oil curve look flat or even rising. Such wild speculation brings to mind the thought that if pigs had wings, pigs could fly and flying pigs will solve all our aviation problems. IEA are well known for always overestimating future oil availability, then having to revise those figures downward when reality proves them wrong. In terms of deceit they are second only to Daniel Yergin's CERA, a stooge of the fossil fuel industry. I am sure you know who I am talking about. I am sure you are familiar with David Murphy's Net Hubbert curve which takes into account energy returned over energy invested. I am sure you are familiar with Jeffrey Brown's export land model, which looks at future oil availability for oil importing countries. If you superimpose the ELM on the Net Hubbert curve, which you must do if you believe in basic physics and mathematics, you will realise that Australia will have no more conventional oil available to import within ten years. Do you not think such a graph is more accurate and appropriate to use?”

To her credit, the professor did not take offence at my “flying pigs” comment and acknowledged the validity of my points. She really had no choice, otherwise she would be denying basic physics and mathematics, which would make her look foolish. She accepted that proper assessment of actual oil availability should subtract the amount of oil needed to produce that oil. To her credit she stated that unconventional oils such as tar sands have such poor EROEI that in reality they are not worth pursuing. However with regard to the short term prospects for her particular fields of interest (aviation and tourism), she was sanguine. She expressed a “Realpolitik” view that when there are competing interests for diminishing oil supplies in the future, such as whether to allocate oil to produce food for the poor or to fuel the aviation industry, the business interests of aviation will win out and the poor will starve. She made a valid, if cynical point there. That view is not dissimilar to my own view about how the “five fingers” of net energy will be allocated in the future when we tumble even further down the net Hubbert cliff: Military activities will be given priority over everything else, thus promoting human die-off. Gotta love the human race.

My ongoing concern is that such “peak oil experts” continue to use fraudulent fantasy graphs based on cornucopian speculative projections in their presentations, which to a less critical audience will otherwise be accepted and go unchallenged. Here is one solution to this conundrum: make the audience less critical by getting rid of troublemakers.

Needless to say I do not expect to be invited back by that particular department of Griffith University in the future. And so it goes.

G. Chia Dec. 2016

 

 

 

18 Responses to TUMBLING DOWN THE NET HUBBERT CLIFF

  • Davebee says:

    So where's the tiny house graph Geff? Colour me disappointed man,I only clicked on here for the Wendy House bit. Bugger the oil.

  • EtyerePetyere says:

     This 

    " She expressed a “Realpolitik” view that when there are competing interests for diminishing oil supplies in the future, such as whether to allocate oil to produce food for the poor or to fuel the aviation industry, the business interests of aviation will win out and the poor will starve. She made a valid, if cynical point there. That view is not dissimilar to my own view about how the “five fingers” of net energy will be allocated in the future when we tumble even further down the net Hubbert cliff: Military activities will be given priority over everything else, thus promoting human die-off. Gotta love the human race."

    Will never play out like this . When people starve there is revolution . Even food becoming very unaffordable leads to revolution . See arab spring . 1%enters flying around in jets while people peacfully starving ?  Give me a break  

    • Luke Lopez says:

      First.  The "Arab spring" was a CIA operation,  NOT  an organic revolution.   Second.  Right now,  here,  in fabulous Las Vegas there are people starving while others fly in on private jets right over them.  Happens 24 hours a day,  seven days a week 52 weeks a year  … If the starving people even try to take food from dumpsters there is this military force called Metro that rains down hell on them.    There will never be a coup against the FSofA BECAUSE THERE IS NO US EMBASSY IN THE UNITED STATES.  ALL coups worldwide are CIA meddling operations and have nothing to do with the "will of the people ".  

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty: your endless stupid opinions are extremely boring. What I found fascinating however is your declaration that your TROLL activities here are "excellent" (??!!??!!??). I mean, really?? You also said you had "many" excellent aspects to your life. Well pray tell us, what are they?

    Hint: If you claim McSerpent has praised you for giving excellent head, we may concede that as a valid skill. However if you claim that pushing your beat up shopping trolley full of urine soaked blankets around Stanley Park while muttering to yourself is "living a life of excellence"…well…not so much (even though we know it is true)

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Missing the pieces of knowledge  evidence and the capacity to present a valid argument  personal assault using Profanity’s and name calling these are the hallmarks of an insect losing it : The "ANT"i 

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      they dont bore you they bother you as the nerve wich has been touched 

  • AntiTroll says:

    EmptyPempty: Still see nothing excellent about you. Only your ongoing denial of reality. So sad.

    PS: make sure you do not wash that old blue frock of yours just in case it needs to be tested for DNA in future

    • EtyerePetyere says:

      Mr "ANT-i"  let me paraprase it for you from this very article 

      Here is one solution to this conundrum: make the audience less critical by getting rid of troublemakers.

      I see you are trying hard  as an ANT it is in your nature ,    as of now it is not working . Try harder  

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty: Yet more proof that you and your opinions are complete shit (Wolfcamp "discovery" means "peak oil is dead"):

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/

    http://www.artberman.com/permian-giant-oil-field-would-lose-500-billion-at-todays-prices/

    http://www.postcarbon.org/the-case-of-the-vanishing-oil-reserves/

    http://www.alternet.org/environment/we-could-be-witnessing-death-fossil-fuel-industry-will-it-take-rest-economy-down-it

    Still waiting for you to prove your boast that you have "many facets of excellence". So far you have only proved you are an excellent village idiot. Even a broken analog clock is right twice per day. Maybe you can claim to be excellent at always being wrong.

    • Disaffected says:

      Anti Troll,

      Pause, take a deep breath, and tell us all what you're afraid of. It's ok, you're among friends here. We won't make fun of you. Now then, doesn't that feel better?

      DA

      • EtyerePetyere says:

        The "Ant"has Angst from the winter . He is terrified of it . His very insect nature is wired for survival by any means . Any idea opinion and fact against this causes him angst . The most terrifying is that extinction is the norm species come and go and when the go they go forever he can`t fathom this scientific fact . The Ants eternal struggle .. For no avail 

  • Anti Troll says:

    Disaffected: How thoughtful of you to appoint yourself as psychoanalyser (or psycho-anal-licker… same difference in your case) and conclude that I must be afraid of "something" which I must disclose to you. Please give yourself a self congratulatory pat on the back for being the superior intellectual you must think you are.

    OK, time for me to fess up. My biggest fear is that you carry out your threat to kill yourself because you look exactly like ugly, fat, old Churchill. Whereas that is definitely a good reason to remove your carcass from this world, please don't do it!! The very thought makes me tremble in my shoes.

    My next biggest fear is that you won't recognise sarcasm when you read it. That thought really keeps me awake at night. So scary.

    Hope your inquiries have been answered.

  • Anti Troll says:

    EmptyPempty: you need to sell up immediately and invest everything in those oil scams you promote. After all nobody ever lost any money on dry oil rigs, did they?

  • John Sykes says:

    The reason there are record breaking numbers of oil rigs all over the fucking place is because they cannot find any fucking oil.

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