Climate Slides for Diners

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Published on The Doomstead Diner on February 14, 2017

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

 

PDF: Why IPCC is Watered Down Guff

 

 

Dear Diners,

Above is a link to a set of slides in pdf format  which you can present to your family and friends, on why the IPCC projections are watered down guff, why climate catastrophe is inevitable and why you should stop worrying about it. The slides are largely self explanatory however two slides require elaboration which I have provided below. Before presenting this information to others I recommend you listen to David Wasdell's "facing the harsh realities of now" talk http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html at least 2 to 3 times. His summary is probably the best compiled by anyone to date (although he ends with a delusional message that solar energy can save us, which is unfortunate).

Why the IPCC's information selection process is deeply flawed:

In October 2013 at the Griffith University Southbank campus in Brisbane, I attended a talk by Professor Nathan Bindoff, a climate scientist from the University of Tasmania who is highly regarded by the international scientific community and who was chairman of many previous IPCC proceedings. He presented the IPCC fifth assessment report.

The knowledgable audience were less than convinced about the IPCC projections, which were out of date even before AR5 was published and we asked him specific questions about the IPCC process and assumptions.

He described their process of information selection: scientific studies for inclusion into or exclusion from the IPCC report are selected by a large number of government employed scientists from around the world. However it is not a democratic process where, say, if more than half of the group decide a particular paper is important, it is included. The IPCC uses a "lowest common denominator" process whereby if just one member of the audience objects to any part of any paper, it is completely thrown out.

Dr Bindoff described the process where perhaps a couple of hundred scientists sit in a room and painstakingly go through every line of every paper submitted. He mentioned that typically by the third day, 80% of the originally submitted peer reviewed scientific studies have been thrown out, to be completely excluded from IPCC consideration.

Clearly this is not honest science, it is a political process designed to select only the most watered down, low ball estimates, so as to fabricate the most optimistic future climate scenarios. This explains why report after report, real world events have exceeded the worst case IPCC projections eg ice loss, sea level rise, severe weather events etc.

Why the IPCC's climate sensitivity calculations are grossly inadequate:

When specifically questioned, Dr Bindoff also admitted that the IPCC had completely ignored the most important climate event ever since the Earth was hit by a dinosaur killing asteroid 66 million years ago: the release of methane from the Arctic coast which has gone ballistic since around 2008. To me this confirms that the IPCC is a bogus pseudoscience body perverted by governments addicted to fossil fuels and that they only tell the public half the truth.

Arctic methane release is just one source of methane they have ignored and methane release is just one of the so-called "slow" feedback loops they have ignored, which are in fact occuring much faster than anticipated.

The IPCC calculate future temperature rises based only on the direct greenhouse effect of CO2 and a few fast feedback loops which themselves have been grossly underestimated. For example the IPCC grossly underestimated the loss of Arctic sea ice and therefore grossly underestimated the loss of albedo over the Arctic and therefore grossly underestimated the magnitude of this feedback loop.

There are other new, previously unanticipated, self reinforcing feedback loops which are now coming to light and therefore also completely off the radar of the IPCC eg the ingress of warm air into the Arctic due to marked weakening and waviness of the North circumpolar jet stream. The IPCC can hardly be blamed for not considering that, however it shows how the rapid onset of real world events quickly render their assessment reports obsolete.

Why Guy McPherson's prediction of NTHE by 2026 due to global warming is complete nonsense:

  • Just as the IPCC have misrepresented things by selecting only the most unreasonably optimistic scientific papers to promote their views, similarly GM has misrepresented things by selecting only the most unreasonably pessimistic scientific papers to promote his views.

  • We do not know what the most probable future scenario is, nobody does, but let us make an assessment of circumstances in the year 2100 based on a worse than worst case scenario. Let us assume all people in the Northern Hemisphere will be dead by 2100.

  • The IPCC AR5 worst case sea level rise by 2100 of 1 metre has now been rejected by most climate scientists since publication of a paper in 2016 by James Hansen and colleagues. That other doyen of climate science, Dr Michael Mann, had some reservations about the Hansen paper, but many scientists now regard a 2 metre sea level rise by 2100 as possible.

  • Hansen had however in an older paper projected as much as a 10 metre sea level rise by 2100, so let us instead adopt this worse than worst case scenario.

  • We know that complete melt of both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice shields will raise sea levels by more than 14 metres https://water.usgs.gov/edu/sealevel.html

  • By implication, the worse than worst case sea level rise of 10 metres by 2100 means that some of the Greenland and/or West Antarctic ice shield will still be intact in 2100, and indeed most of the ice on the Antarcticic continent will also be intact then.

  • Ice moderates nearby air and water temperatures. Cold melt water flowing into the sea keeps that sea temperature cool, which in turn keeps coastal areas bathed in that sea cool.

  • Therefore high latitude coastal areas in the Southern Ocean (the southern tips of NZ, Chile and Argentina and some islands eg the Falklands) will remain relatively cool even if GATR rises by 8 or 10degC by 2100. Those areas in the deep south will still have habitats with moderate temperatures conducive for growing food and rearing livestock in the year 2100 (and for substantial time after), even using this worse than worst case scenario. By definition, survival of even a small number of people means that human extinction will not occur by 2100 even based on this worse than worst case scenario. For someone to declare that NTHE will definitely occur by 2026 is thus completely nonsensical, is not scientific and is based on nihilistic ideology, not logic or reason.

  • As the Antarctic ice melts it is almost inevitable that humans will migrate to Antarctica if all other parts of the world become too hot.

 

 

30 Responses to Climate Slides for Diners

  • Pintada says:

    Great work!!!

    • Daniel Reich says:

      I believe GM to be correct. Too many positive feedback loops are set in motion. Oceans are dying. Food doesn't grow just anywhere in any old soil. Mostly in the Interior of large continents, where temperatures will be too hot. Pollution is killing the trees. Amazon rainforest is being logged at ever increasing rates. 10 years is very possible. 

      • RE says:

        10 years is not “very possible”, it’s “highly unlikely”.

        In 10 years, you likely see a large population knockdown, but it will take some time for every last Homo Sap to be dead.  Asymptotic reduction after that down to some lower number, as low as 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs and it could still rebound.  That’s how low the population dropped in the Bottleneck 75,000 years ago.  May go to zero, may not.  Nobody can make such a prediction with any accuracy whatsoever.

        Anyhow, I hope to still be above ground in 2025 to thumb my nose at GM and his acolytes and say “I told you so”.

        RE

  • Anti Troll says:

    OMG! OMG! Where to begin? If stupidity was an energy resource then Daniel Reich would be our solution to the energy crisis!! Infinite, abundant stupidity!! Stupidity too cheap to meter!! Reich merely parrots McSerpent's dumb opinion "there are lots of bad things happening now, so all humans will surely be dead by 2026 and I cannot imagine any other possibility". He offered no real evidence or facts or logic to support that meme. He is just a brainless ventriloquist's dummy.

    For McSerpent's opinion to be half way plausible he must show beyond any reasonable doubt that all areas on Earth that humans now inhabit or may migrate to, will become totally uninhabitable due to runaway global warming within nine years. Just throwing out a stupid opinion is not enough, you must quantify your argument and show, for example, that the whole Earth will be totally ice free in nine years based on objective, well considered thermodynamic calculations.

    The most credible climate scientists in the world have done many objective, well considered thermodynamic calculations and have shown that even in the worse than worst case scenario, there will still be PLENTY of ice over Antarctica in 2100. McSerpent is neither a climate scientist nor is he credible. Dr Chia asserted that Antarctic ice melting into the Southern Ocean will keep that ocean and coastal areas bathed in that ocean cool. This is reasonable based on the fact that the only part of the Northern Hemisphere which has cooled in the wake of global warming has been the North Atlantic in the vicinity of the Greenland icemelt. Hence coastal areas in the deep south bathed by the Southern Ocean will remain livable, with VIABLE HABITATS as of 2100. Hence the complete death of all human beings due to global warming within a much shorter timeline by 2026 is a fucking stupid idea, promoted by a fucking stupid false prophet and believed only by his fucking stupid disciples. I will go further to say that because some ice will probably remain over Greenland by 2100, that parts of Greenland will also be conducive to human life at the end of this century. There will definitely still be some ice over Greenland come 2026 even using accelerated melt scenarios. So 2026 and even 2100 are stupid timelines for NTE due to AGW.

    If you are able flaw Dr Chia's argument with some kind of rational counter argument Mr Reich, then you may have a point. Instead you have chosen to IGNORE it. Ignoring logical arguments which you cannot refute, but merely parroting your brainless ideology ad nauseum is typical of religious followers of a personality cult, in this case the McSerpent death cult.

    Ignoring inconvenient facts was typical of the shithead at the other extreme of the climate argument, the AGW denialist Bob "worse than a pedophile" Simpson, who IGNORED my argument that the massive icemelt around the planet was undeniable evidence of global warming. He simply refused to address that question despite being asked repeatedly, because he simply had no answer for it.

    So in summary: McSerpent is a fuckwit and his brainless disciples are fuckwits.

    PS: I did consider one mechanism based on relative fluid densities (cold fresh water vs warmer sea water) which I initially thought might refute Dr Chia's hypothesis, but after further consideration my idea did not "hold water", so to speak.

    • Disaffected says:

      So much hysteria! No wonder Trump's minions throw the whole damn AGW argument out the window and ignore it all together.

    • Daniel Reich says:

      http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/02/near-term-extinction-on-rt.html

      "the most credible climate scientists in the world" Indeed. This is an upside down world. Only the most marginalized, sidelined, criticized, and hated are to be believed. You are operating from a worn out paradigm. A falsehood. There is a great deal of evidence that things are unwinding faster than predicted. Thank you for the compliments, though. I consider being called stupid by a guy like you to be a most high honor. The link above is an example of why I believe GM to be correct. Interesting user name, Mr. Troll. I guess calling yourself Antitroll means……well, you know.

  • JoeD says:

    Wow. Anti-troll you sling around a lot of completely unecessary ad hominem profanities. I don't agree with Guy's timeline either but he certainly presents his case like a gentlemen…unlike you. 

    He is also clear in explaining why he thinks we get to extinction in the near future.  Roughly, his path is: Arctic ice melts leading to large methane bursts leading to more rapid rises in temperature leading to massive global food production shortages.  With massive food shortages comes violence and breakdown of "civilization"…leading to very rapid warming, less food, more violence, and nuclear catastrophy – both from meltdowns and conflict.  

    Jeez, even RE, who doesn't always get in line RE: abrupt climate change and its human causes, thinks we're down billions of people in the near future.  How exactly do billions of people die without the possibility of nuclear catastrophy?

    • RE says:

      LOL.  I got Napalmed by Guy plenty.  He’s no gentleman when you face him down.  Trust me though, I gave it back to him in spades. 🙂

      I do think we will see a large population knockdown inside the next 20 years or so.  But Knockdown is NOT Extinction.

      Remember, we went through a Population Bottleneck before.  Down to 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs 75,000 years ago.  From that small population, we ballooned up to a current 7.3B or so.

      I think 10,000 people can survive a 10C increase in AGT., which is about as high as it gets regardless of total atmospheric carbon content through all 5 previous Extinction Level Events.

      Some Number of Homo Sap CAN make it through the Zero Point.  Just they won’t be the BATTERS from NBL.  Those folks are QUITTERS! Those who make it through will be the DINERS!

      See you on Jan 1st 2026.  I will do my best to stay above ground this long to spit in the face of Guy McPherson and say, “I TOLD YOU SO”.

      The game is on, the betting begins.

      RE

      • Anti Troll says:

        Let us be clear: I am not a gentleman, I am a vicious asshole. However I only attack deserving trolls on the Diner who have proven from their previous posts they are either morons, lunatics and/or racist neonazis. Having said that, I also back up my arguments with strong evidence and logic and anyone is welcome to use better evidence and logic to prove me wrong.

        JoeD disliked the style of my argument but has offered NOTHING to overturn the substance of my argument. The argument that climate change causes nuclear war which causes extinction, therefore climate change causes extinction is TOTAL FUCKING BULLSHIT. I could say that resource depletion causes nuclear war which causes extinction, therefore resource depletion causes extinction. McSerpent has a habit of shifting his arguments about in a weasel like manner but has clearly declared that runaway global warming will be the DIRECT cause of human extinction by 2026 and the onus is on him to prove that case beyond any shadow of doubt. Do NOT bring nuclear war into it which is a separate, different mechanism of extinction. That weasely argument is merely a devious ploy to avoid the burden of climate proof demanded of you.

        Let us also be clear that McSerpent is NOT a gentleman, he is also a vicious asshole, however he superficially pretends to be a gentleman when speaking in public, then badmouths people behind their back. He has a carefully polished persona, as good as any stage performer. McSerpent has made all sorts of slanderous nasty comments against people I admire like Bill McKibben, Nicole Foss and James Hansen. Even though I agree it is too late to avoid civilizational collapse, if our carbon emissions can be reduced now by whatever means, it could make the difference between an 8 or 10 or even 12 degrees C eventual temperature rise and that could make the difference between humans nearly going extinct and completely going extinct (as RE says, humanity can eventually recover even if down to only a few survivors). McKibben and Hansen have shown true courage to put their liberty and financial security on the line by protesting against the environmental vandalism of the FSA and getting arrested. They have real guts and I salute them. McSerpent has done nothing courageous and nothing notable to help society. Nothing. If he went to Standing Rock to protest against the Dakota pipeline and got himself arrested and imprisoned, that may change my opinion of him, but I am certain that will not happen because of his personality which is:

        McSerpent is an attention seeking prima donna whose only goal is to create a cult of personality around himself. His citation of scientific publications are correct up to a point, which may initially draw in reasonable and reasoning people, however he then goes apeshit with an absurd declaration of human extinction from AGW by 2026 for which there is NO credible scientific basis.

        There have been countless dumbass apocalyptic cults in human history which attract and prey on wierdos and nutcases obsessed with armageddon. The McSerpent cult is one of them, the only difference being he is very good at feigning scientific legitimacy (up to a point) but in substance NBL is the same as all those other insane death cults. People who support the McSerpent ideology of climate extinction by 2026 are fools and idiots.

        No one here disputes the possibility that billions of people may die within a decade or two (mostly from economic collapse and resource depletion and the associated wars, and yes, also severe weather extremes). But if McSerpent truly understands physics and thermodynamics as he claims to, he will know there is huge thermal inertia in the oceans and antarctic ice and that his meme of "climate extinction by 2026" is TOTAL BULLSHIT. Why then spout such bullshit? Because it is a very effective attention seeking ploy to get him the publicity he craves. For a prima donna, it is far better to gain notoriety than be ignored. Such behaviour does not befit a proper scientist. He has betrayed the scientific profession by his deceitful grandstanding and is a disgrace to the principles of truth seeking and truth speaking in science.

        For someone who believes in runaway global warming, his idea of settling in tropical Belize is totally insane, unless he wants to make his own personal extinction by 2026 a self fulfilling prophecy. People who follow his example and his advice (to abandon hopium) will die prematurely. That is why McSerpent is evil. On the other hand, the Doomstead Diner offers advice which can increase your chance of living longer and better in the coming days of turmoil. Impossible to save everybody but possible to save some. Save as many as you can. This is why I support RE, the Diner and its main authors.

        Is this an ad hominem attack against GM? By definition, if what I say is an accurate description of the reality of the situation then it cannot be an ad hominem attack, it is just a simple statement of fact. If you McSerpent sycophants dislike that, then piss off back to NBL.

        • RE says:

          ” Let us also be clear that McSerpent is NOT a gentleman, he is also a vicious asshole, however he superficially pretends to be a gentleman when speaking in public, then badmouths people behind their back. ” -AT

          Having been in my share of arguments with GM, this is quite true.  Unless you buy his spin, you quickly get labelled as a “deluded fool”, “unscientific”, “delusional”, “denialist” and numerous other characterizations to demean your analysis.  Does he ever actually argue the POINT with you?  Nope.

          GM Lectures, and he is a Walking, Talking database of climate related articles, he spits them out faster than an AR-15 on Full Automatic.  Will he argue any point he cites in any of these articles?  Nope.  Because it was published in the Journal of Global Despair & Hopelessness, it must be true!  GM doesn’t debate, and he doesn’t brooke any deviation from the Party Line of Near Term Human Extinction.

          RE

          • Disaffected says:

            Internescine sqabbles such as this are PRECISELY why climate change discussions always degenerate into irrelevance. You guys need to get over yourselves.

            Here's a hint: whether it's 2017, 2037, 2087, or far beyond, AGW is probably going to spell TEOLAWKI. How about THAT for a start?

          • RE says:

            Nobody here denies TEOTWAWKI is coming.  What the dispute is over is the timeline to ALL DEAD PEOPLE.  2025 is unreasonably quick and the evidence does not support the conclusion.

      • Daniel Reich says:

        I don't understand your optimism. I admire it, really. I just can't get past the fact that nothing edible is going to grow at those temperatures. Plants aren't going to adapt fast enough. Evolution takes a very long time. Maybe some people are going to survive longer than others, because they have canned rations to live on, but I believe extinction is inevitable. It also occurs to me that 400 odd nuclear power plants are going to melt down once the grid fails, which is worrisome as well. How about ocean acidification? Over the past 300 million years, ocean pH has been slightly basic, averaging about 8.2. Today, it is around 8.1, a drop of 0.1 pH units, representing a 25-percent increase in acidity over the past two centuries. The oceans currently absorb about a third of human-created CO2 emissions, roughly 22 million tons a day.(copied from national geographic). Phytoplankton, being a tiny shellfish is extremely sensitive to ph. They manufacture half the world's oxygen.At the same time,homosap (as you affectionately call our favorite species) is logging the Amazon rainforest. I can go on and on, but this is just a comment, not a thesis. I'm sure you get the idea. By the way, I really enjoy visiting your website . It cheers me up. Some of your contributors are very inciteful and author excellent articles. Surly's "Peak Ignorance" was terrific.

        • RE says:

          If postulating a die off off 99.9% of the population of Homo Saps is Optimistic, then yes I am an Optimist.

          I am not going to go over all the arguments I have made as to why an extinction is unlikely by 2025, or why it is possible for some Homo Sap to survive a AGT regime of +10C in some locations, which is as hot as the planet ever got in any previous carbon desequestration event.  If you have been reading my material you should be familiar with them by now.  If you want to debate those topics with me, join me inside the Diner and we can hash it out.

          Trust me, I can go “on and on” way longer than you can, or even GM can.  TAKE ME ON!

          RE

           

           

  • mike k says:

    Thanks RE and Anti Troll for your colorful deconstruction of Guy M. I hung out on his site for a while back when it was young. You have made me reflect on why I was so inclined to buy his trip. I was so fed up with homo sap’s evil destructive reign on this planet, that I longed to see them all destroyed, so that some of the beautiful non human creatures I loved could have a chance to live on a human cleansed Earth. Let’s face it: I hated people – and that included myself. We deserved to die!

    Having shifted gears in recent times to embrace my interest in spiritual realities, I no longer indulge in hate and destroy fantasies towards my fellow humans, but simply feel sorry for all of us less than we should be shmucks. Maybe I can show a little love before I bite the big one after all….

    • Disaffected says:

      Good stuff Mike! I think we all shift toward your viewpoint sooner or later, provided we have enough time to come around before we die. In the end, we all have to come to grips with our mortality and what it means to live and die, in truth, the only reason we were born in the first place. My recent and ongoing spiritual journey mirrors your own, I think. In the end, niether our own individual, nor even our larger cultural imprints on this planet will make all that much difference in the end. The earth as a bio-physical entity is simply much too much robust for that. As to whether humanity exists as a "going concern" species beyond 2025 or whatever the current target date might be, I have to admit that I simply don't know and don't much care either! It will be what it will be, as we're talking about biological processes that have been set in motion YEARS ago in any case!

  • Anti Troll says:

    mike k, so good to hear you have broken free from the toxic psychological grip of the McSerpent death cult. Way to go! Live for as long as you can, for as well as you can, without trampling over others and don't worry about the things you cannot change.

    • Disaffected says:

      Just asking, what exactly does this "McSerpent Death Cult" entail? What are its costs, what are its rewards, and WHY do they embrace it and you resist it so?

      • RE says:

        The "McSerpent Death Cult" entails being a depressed and nihilistic misanthrope.  The costs are a large pharmaceutical bill for anti-depressants and the rewards are either a life of hopelessness and despair or a bullet meets brain combination.  By resisting this temptation into nihilism & misanthropy, you can actually do some productive things to try to stay above ground to see a few more sunrises.

        RE

        • Daniel Reich says:

          A death cult may have sprung up around GM, but that was not his fault. His message is just too much for some people to handle.He has never encouraged anyone to give up. He encourages people to live as fully as possible in the face of certain death. His radio show happens to be outstanding. I saw what happened to his website. It was taken over by psychotics who did nothing positive with his message. They didn't get it.It became morose. People started attacking each other.That's not what he's about. That's why he closed all comments. He did the right thing. He has grown over the years and his presentations are more about developing relationships and building community than climate science . He still believes his timeline is correct and that we should live with a sense of urgency. I don't see anything wrong with that.

          • RE says:

            You reap what you sow.  When you write articles that tell people that Hope is Delusional, you’re going to attract people who are nihilistic, that is inevitable.  It IS GMs fault that his website turned into the sewer it did, he encourages it with his writings.

            Besides that, as I said, GM does not debate his thesis at all, believe me I tried to engage him in such debates, and hell I hosted his website for 2 years too!  I gave him every opportunity to be reasonable, but he never was.  He’s an ideologue, plain and simple.

            RE

  • Disaffected says:

    Don't understand all the hysteria over who's right about these various scenarios. You guys do know that this is all STILL just theoretical at this point don't you? No one's going to get any ribbons for being right or any demerits for being wrong.

  • Michael Rynn says:

    Too many changes at once, for human kinds of prediction, even limits to growth throws its hands in the air once limits are reached, because all best equations of growth become different during collapse.  We have now failtering global growth growth, no longer exponential, in part the biggest statistical fakery kind of news, because the oil supply is declinng.  There are system limits and lags, for the climate system, and also for our teetering financial system, and collapsing oil industry. Human economic systems collapse, with effective cut-off of so many mining resources as diesel fuel and demand disappears, perhaps over 5-10 years.  There is the likely "Age of consequences", which brings our populations down, with the return of non-mythological non-mounted roaming apolapyse agents of war, famine, drought, and epidemic disease. Human total carbon emissions are likely to fall, far faster than any politican has dared promise, with large parts of this past oil civilization becoming tree fertilizer. Choices could be agricultural slavery or death. There could be considerable vegetation and tree regrowth, such as after the black death in Eurasia.
    We may have to break up all those tar sealed roads for space to grow stuff. In time, weathering and vegetation growth and concrete rot will hide so much. It becomes a question as to whether human numbers and behaviour can achieve a dynamic equalibrium with nature and other species.  Now we've consumed our energy resource helpmates, we may be rendered less dangerous.  It's not so much a NBL, as nature getting back at us after our term of expansion of human numberrs and energy use. Plague species eat themselves out of environment.  Humanity will become a bottle-neck of many scattered survivors. With less birth control, we may be able to properly speciate in the medium term future, evolvling under new conditions with natural elimination of the failed. The interesting question for me, is how much knowledge, language, culture and history will be preserved by the time people have enough spare energy to look at it in the future? From digital device owning gods back down to illiterate peasants and savages., with oral cultural traditions.. How mighty are the fallen!

  • Anti Troll says:

    Daniel Reich: Using Robin Westenra as a reference is fucking bogus because he merely mirror posts stuff from NBL verbatim and RT's snippet also just "reported" McSerpent's blabber verbatim, for its shock value. Talk about circular arguments. They appear to be different "news" outlets but they all got their stuff from exactly the same single flawed source. Goebbels would be so proud. What a dumbass McSerpent disciple you are. You may not meet the definition of a Troll if you post your garbage in NBL, but as their dumbass McSerpent disciple, but you definitely meet the literal definition of a Troll here, so don't try to distort definitions, thus revealing your twisted fucked up mind. If you love being insulted my me, lets bring it on. You ain't seen nothin' yet. Keep posting your crap and I will be happy to keep exposing what a dishonest and stupid cunt you are.

    Disaffected: your attempt to portray our robust objections against McSerpent/NBL here as pointless and "hysterical" (implying you are a sober detached observer, superior to everyone else) reeks of a sneering tone, which has been evident in many of your previous posts. If you are able to offer some corrections of fact or reasoning to inadvertent, overlooked mistakes in the articles here (which will help both authors and readers) or defend the Diner or even write a bit of amusing poetry, it may be considered a useful contribution. So far I have seen nothing useful whatsoever from you apart from a few "attaboys" and followed by poorly disguised comments to puff yourself up and portray yourself as being superior to everybody else. If you really cannot see the clear philosophical and practical distinctions between the Diner and NBL by now, which have been explained many, many times, there is truly no hope for you.

    Regarding what the "McSerpent death cult" entails: why don't you ask Michael Ruppert that question? Oh, wait a minute, you can't, because Ruppert blew his brains out shortly after drinking deep of McSerpent's KoolAid. What a frenemy we have in GM. Did I mention that McSerpent is evil?

     

  • Anti Troll says:

    Suggestion for Dr Chia: I tried to falsify your argument that antarctic icemelt into the southern ocean will keep coastal areas bathed in that ocean cool, but I could not flaw it. Using your principle that “icemelt cools the nearby sea which cools coastal areas bathed in that sea”, here is an extension of it which PROVES that human extinction by 2026 due to global warming will NOT OCCUR EVEN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. First, there is NO credible scientific projection which shows Greenland will be ice free by 2026, there will still be substantial ice over Greenland in 2026. As the world warms up, the rate of melt will increase and volume of cold water entering the North Atlantic will increase, thus increasing the cooling effect in that part of the ocean. This could even halt the Gulf Stream (which has shown signs of slowing the past few years), which can then cause the average temperatures in some parts of coastal northwest Europe to actually DROP. Places like Scotland and Norway will definitely NOT fatally overheat by 2026, habitats there will remain viable and people there will NOT die from global warming by 2026. I humbly offer that scenario as a useful addition to your arguments in the future.

    All we have to do is show that there will be ONE temperature viable habitat in the world by 2026 to disprove McSerpent's ideology, but in fact there will be MANY. McSerpent KNOWS THIS, which is why he was forced to deviously bring in other non climate mechanisms eg nuclear war, to prop up his bogus argument of “climate” extinction by 2026. What a fucking weasel.

    Suggestion for McSerpent disciples/acolytes/true believers: You should use “what a frenemy we have in GM” as the title for the official hymn of your death cult.

    Suicide is painless” is a great song but is copyrighted.

  • Godofredo Aravena says:

    This essay from Geoffrey Chia has the quality I am used to see in all his work. It is a good analysis, well carried out, with good supporting information. I have always mostly agreed with his general vision regarding this topic.

    As G. Chia and RE did, I participated in Guy McPherson´s forum, and posted from time to time between 2012 and 2014 . But since 2014, I have been away from these arenas, closely following the unfolding events, trying to be updated in a broad way. I needed a sabbatical year to think about what was going on.

    By mid 2015 I was finally able to make my mind about what was going on, amidst so many different opinions and doom predictions, especially what Guy McPherson was suggesting (or claiming). Finally, I found a way to face and handle these events and predictions in a practical, rational and functional way, but mainly coherent with my understanding of the universe.

    The first thing I concluded was (and is) that the truth about what is being said here and there and everywhere, and whatever is to be said in the future, it is all about opinions. Including mine certainly. As we are dealing with unknown or never seen before events. One important point.

    At the same time, to properly handle predictions, the key clue of the whole thing, I decided to investigate about predictions in general, as a human practice. Took as a basis many predictions made in the past in the technical, scientific and common daily life areas. After studying this variety of predictions, of all kinds, I had to conclude that all of them have failed. No exceptions. Another important point.

    We could keep an endless debate about who is right when it comes to making predictions, and give all the supporting evidence for our position. The supporting evidence for any prediction are usually facts, but the prediction on itself is not a fact. So, we have to practice our own analysis, personal and individual to decide about it. Total subjectivism. In most cases, to be right is more an ego issue, rather than the key thing.

    Given the span of the process center of attention to the “doomers”, we will probably never know who was right. All these are dynamic events, constantly changing, so as time goes by, the perceptions change, new information comes, new data is added, and so new predictions have to be made, to include new data. All predictions have to change, any prediction made in a certain moment,  will change (just follow the evolution of Guy McPherson´s predictions along the last almost ten years).  

    We are talking about climate change, economic crisis and energy crisis, and all these processes  will certainly take longer than our lives to unfold, so we will probably die without really knowing who was right. In the very end, it does not matter who is (or was) right. We will never know. And knowing will not make a difference, it will be too late.

     

    My point is that all this is not about who is right, the hard truth is that nobody will ever be right (in a useful way), and “half right” is useless in practical terms. History shows clearly that predictions have always failed, even given the fact that in many cases, they had an absolutely solid support. On the other hand, gross or general predictions are useless to decide about what to do, even being right in the general idea. There are always in general predictions, lateral events that are not considered, mainly the way humans react to the events, but not just that, nature also offers totally unexpected events not considered. Gross or general predictions about events of such a big reach, timespan and impact are useless unless they are precise and detailed, to allow the individuals anywhere in the world to decide. Something a general prediction cannot give. On the other hand, nobody is going to do anything based on general predictions, history has always shown this practice. Society has always reacted, never being fully prepared in advance. Individual personal interests always get in the way of any possible action to avoid the bad scenario.

    Personal interest also gets in the way when it comes to make predictions, something important also to be kept in mind.

     

    My country, Chile, is one of the most active places regarding earthquakes of the world. To make a prediction stating that from here to the next 50 years there will be a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in some region is useless information, in practical terms. To become useful information, it should be stated when the earthquake will be, day, time, expected intensity and location of epicenter. Without that information, nothing can be decided about how to handle this predicted catastrophic event. With a general prediction as given, as they usually are, we, as Chileans, would just keep on living as we usually do, being always “kind of prepared”, but in the end, never really, mostly hoping that the event will never happen, or hoping not to be close to the epicenter. Regarding this kind of situations, we say, “when it comes (if it does) we will see what to do”, at the given moment. Nothing more can be really done.

    Chilean authorities have changed the rules regarding building standards many times, but nobody has ever changed the rules based on a prediction, it has always been in response to the damage already attained due to an earthquake. The 2010 earthquake, and 8.9 one, was being expected for some 50 years, but when it came, took everybody by surprise, and along with the (totally unexpected) Tsunami that came after, we suffered of some buildings destroyed, and some loss of lives, but also came one totally unexpected event, a lot of looting and destruction of commercial facilities (by looters) without any reason, as most of the infrastructure had not suffered damage. Something never seen in our history. Although we have had many big earthquakes in our history.  Looters produced more damaged than the earthquake on itself. It took more than 50 days to recover the system. That situation never was considered and predicted.

     

    Japan is another example regarding earthquakes, they had built tsunami walls spending billions to be safe and protected in the case of a tsunami, investments that ended being totally useless. None of them worked. Fukushima on the other hand, is another example on how you cannot be ever prepared, no matter how good can be the predictions in practical terms. But as shown and seen, they are never good enough to be believed, and considered seriously.

     

    And finally, another well-known prediction, “Limits to growth”, an interesting and valuable document that has been useless to alter the path of events. Also, to be mentioned, the given information even being recognized as close to real events, it has never provided the necessary details to do something useful with the general knowledge it provides. It is all about gross, very gross, perceptions. Useless in practical terms, and the proof is that nothing has been done regarding the predicted scenarios. Also to be noted that “Limits to growth” was unable to predict climate change…

    What was in the past has never repeated to become our present (the future of the past) when we are dealing with such complex systems. Concurrently, our future will never be what we can imagine today. There is a big difference between studying past events and being part of the way  history is being written today with our actions.

     

    The problem with predictions is that they are always based on past events, and current known experience, so they cannot consider totally new (never seen) and unexpected events and scenarios. Like the higher than expected waves in Japan, and the mindless looting in my country after the earthquake. The possibilities to happen something different and never seen before are enormous, impossible to handle, so totally out of reach.

    If you cannot predict what you have never seen or lived, more difficult will be to add on top, the need to predict something detailed enough to make it useful.

     

    Then, there is another situation regarding predictions, the Universe is far more complex than we want it to be, and also human nature. Both, far-far too much complex to our current level of understanding and knowledge. This means that the possibilities for future events impossible to predict are well beyond our capacity to even imagine them.

    When it comes to predictions, with want (need) them as way to get information to allow us to decide about what to do in the future, to our personal level, we want to solve our personal future scenarios. We are all in the same game. It is all about ourselves. In parallel, our society tries (by all means) to offer and give us a “secured” life, where tomorrow will mostly be like yesterday. We have to worry about just a few issues. With that way of thinking and living, we need a recipe-prediction, easy to follow. But that is an impossible. And we are not prepared for complex ways.

    Any serious prediction cannot avoid the need to handle many “if” branch scenarios, too many given the impact and reach of the events under consideration. As our way of thinking and facing the future can handle just a few variables, and we are always trying to put it simple, something impossible for these cases, no prediction will ever be as detailed as required by the level of  individuals this society produces.

     

    There is “one more thing” (or “one last thing”), doomish predictions try to warn us about the destruction of the civilization we know today. But, my question is, what are we trying to save? Does it make sense to save a system that has already shown as self destructive?. What is the real need to have this predictions, to make them?. Ego? They will never hit the nail on the head, and on the other hand there is nothing valuable to save.

     

    These are most of the reasons why I stopped making predictions for my own life, and stopped deciding about my future based on long term predictions. My conclusion was simple, there is no way to predict what we need to know. Whatever can be said will be too gross, and probably will miss many unimaginable (today) events. So instead of trying to know what will happen in the long  term future, and when, I have decided to live the present, always light in luggage, without ties to anyplace, and work, only handling short term predictions, in some way always prepared for the unexpected long term. Left behind the traditional and secured consumer way life style.

    In parallel, I set up some goals for my life, to give it a sense, a reason to be lived. Something I can see most human lives do not have. A reason that goes beyond the span of my life. I decided to begin to do something thinking only in the next and future generations. A legacy based on my life experience.

    I have some “traditional” plans for the future, but they are not too ambitious, all within my reach, knowing that they may have to be changed, as things may end being totally different. There is no problem about that, I can change my plans as required.

    In parallel I try to live a life with a reduced environmental impact, within reasonable limits. I mostly keep on doing what I have done always, keep on being a responsible citizen of the world. In peace with my life.

     

    My conclusion is that there is nothing to do about the way the future will be regarding the DOOM scenario, something Geoffrey Chia also supports. Human modern civilization will collapse. It will certainly be a different process than all imaginable scenarios today. That is for sure.

    As I said before, instead of spending my time trying to predict, what I have decide do for the rest of my life is to develop a proposal for a better society, and by better, I mean in equilibrium with environment and human nature, both at the same time, otherwise, it will not work.

    What motivates me about doing this is simple, there is no case in saving our society, as whatever (or all) is happening today is a consequence of its basis. If the survivors to whatever catastrophic event comes try to keep on living the way we do today, based in the same codes, and concepts, they will fail again. As from the basis, our society is unsustainable. There is no way to practice a sustainable growth, a sustainable economy. Growth cannot be the basis. And probably democracy also is not the way, and the concept of rights is another thing to be revised. Neither of them are in equilibrium with either environment or human nature. Also many other components of the basis of our society have to be revised carefully.  

    I already gave a glimpse about this concept of our society being wrong in my essays in Guy McPherson´s Blog a long time ago (maybe by 2013).

    To reach this goal, I have been developing a theory that explains why we are the way we are, and why we act the way we do, from both points of view, as society and as individuals (male and female). The idea is to truly understand human motivations and how they have taken us to the current situation. From that point of view and starting point, it is possible to propose a different society, which, being based in our basic characteristics and motivations, may allow us to thrive based on a different concept of society, which, among other things, would allow people to be really in peace with themselves, in full balance with our nature. Let´s say It would be a tailor-made society. As an engineer, I am not thinking in an ideal solution, it is not about writing a utopian  novel, instead, as I have worked with reality my whole life, this new society has to be conceived with the same requirements, to be able to deal with the facts of human nature, and the facts of the limits imposed by the environment. Something never done, as we have always been forced to become part of an already existing concept of society. Humans, after being born, have to adapt to the society, instead of being the other way around.

    Dreaming too much, OK, maybe, but I have to give it a try, I have only one life to try, besides, there is nothing more to do in the modern society, that makes more sense to me.

  • Joe Bloggs says:

    I think Mr GA's comments reflect a frustration many of us "doomers" feel and I understand his need to vent. Similarly I do not begrudge Mr BL's lengthy posts. Will human beings ever learn? What's it all about anyway?

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