The Geopolitics of Petroleum

youtube-Logo-4gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on The Doomstead Diner on October 12, 2018

Discuss this article at the Energy Table inside the Diner

 

This was a presentation to the members of ReNew/ATA (renewable energy advocates) at the Peace Centre in Brisbane in late September. Even though it is almost 90 minutes long, it is just a basic introduction. It is a much abridged version of topics already covered in articles previously written (see weblinks in text description beneath video)

Link to full talk:

https://youtu.be/K9wCbNHlMsU

 

 

 

One Response to The Geopolitics of Petroleum

  • Anti Troll says:

    Although the talk was just an introduction to petropolitics for newbies, the last part does include interesting ideas for veteran peak oilists. In particular the statement that “estimated recoverable oil reserves” are a messed up dog’s breakfast, not to be believed by anyone except dumbasses. Best to use the projected area under the Hubbert curve (past Peak) which gives a much more realistic idea. Also the brief comments about an open system and GROSS oil production (ie. an individual country which peaked well before the rest of the world peaked eg USA, and could harness imported energy to extract remaining domestic low EROI post peak oil) versus a closed system and overall NET oil production (the world as a whole) were worth exploring in more detail.
    Upshot: if Russia and Saudi Arabia have had similar production curves up to and just after their peaks, we can be quite certain that the Saudi claims that they have 5 times more reserves than Russia are total bullshit. Their reserves must be similar. Also, if Russia (population around 144 million and falling) has recently been exporting more crude than Saudi Arabia (population around 32 million and rising due to a rabbit-reproducing demographic), then the export land model predicts Saudi exports will drop drastically vs Russia in the near future unless the Saudi profligate domestic consumption can be dramatically reduced. The latter is unlikely to occur without causing huge social instability, the pampered populace having been pacified (till now) by easy money from plentiful oil. The Wahabis, Salafists, Al Quida and ISIL are eagerly waiting in the wings, ready to take over. What can the Fascist States of America do to prevent such a revolution? Sweet FA.
    Facts: Apart from Saudi and the UAE which are politically poised for collapse, the last remaining conventional giant fields are mainly in Iraq (which after democratic elections now has a Shiite leadership, thus is becoming aligned more with Iran, and a population which hate the FSA invaders), Iran, Russia and the Caspian area (Kazakhstan etc). Claims that Venezuela have the largest crude reserves are bullshit, they have lots of low EROI heavy oil in the Orinoco basin which is not economic.
    The US are now desperately trying to cause regime change in Russia (to install a Yeltsin-like puppet who will sell oil under the petrodollar) and to cause regime change in Iran (to install a Shah-like puppet who will sell oil under the petrodollar) and to install a pipeline through Afganistan to the sea coast, so crude from the last remaining giant fields around the Caspian sea can be exported internationally, to be sold under the petrodollar.
    Failing all of the above, we must ask this: which rising power, which can actually pay for their oil in real gold or in real manufactured products (not just fiat currency), has the best geographic and economic access to the last remaining crude from Russia, Iran and the Caspian area (which does not depend on sea routes)?
    The FSA simply cannot imagine themselves being eclipsed and sour grapes demand they start a war. Bomb Iran first using some “Trumped up” (pun intended) fake excuse eg Iran reneging on its nuclear deal (point of fact: it was the US which reneged on its nuclear deal, the JCPOA) which is what the FSA have been threatening for years. Iran will then blockade the straits of Hormuz, blocking oil exports from the Gulf and causing global financial collapse. Also, Iran will be defended by its SCO allies Russia and China and everything will quickly escalate to global nuclear war. Quick suicide may be preferable to slowly burning to death by global warming anyway.
    If however the US implodes into civil war (red vs blue states) first (triggered by stockmarket/banking collapse and severe inequalities in the population), then the rest of the world might just be spared a nuking.
    Just sayin’

    PS: anybody who says unconventional oils will make any difference to the above is a dumbass.

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

https://image.freepik.com/free-icon/musical-notes-symbols_318-29778.jpg

Support the Diner
Search the Diner
Surveys & Podcasts

NEW SURVEY

Renewable Energy

VISIT AND FOLLOW US ON DINER SOUNDCLOUD

" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D
Archives
Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BX686_LakeMe_G_20130816175615.jpg

loading

Inside the Diner

Over a year?  That's INSANE!  How much better could it taste?    I let my STEAK🥩 for the Diner 7th Anniversary FEAST age for around 2 weeks, and it looks good to me.  No idea how it tastes yet though.Alaska in th...

Quote from: cernunnos5 on Today at 06:25:06 PMPerhaps I needed to be stoned for any of that to make sense.An infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters will still all starve to death while they are...

Quote from: cernunnos5 on Today at 06:25:06 PM I'm one of those geniuses you were waiting to be born. Do you know what I did to solve global warming today. I got my energy from about 500 meters away.That doesn...

Perhaps I needed to be stoned for any of that to make sense.An infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters will still all starve to death while they are waiting to come up with a genius monkey to solve that whole banana problem.Th...

Apparently emboldened by President Trump’s recent signing of the Rapid DNA Act, Arizona could be the first to make DNA collection mandatory for a wide range of reasons under a proposed bill.As constitutional attorney John W. Whitehead has expertly de...

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

Quote from: knarf on Today at 01:41:12 PMExtinctio [...]

Extinction Rebellion is back on the streets. Month [...]

The house speaker underlined ‘power of the purse’ [...]

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks about his new b [...]

The Jesus movement was never against the rich. It [...]

Diner Newz Feeds
  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

Quote from: Surly1 on Today at 10:34:50 AMQuote fr [...]

Quote from: Eddie on Today at 07:17:19 AMFake Nati [...]

Fake National Emergencies don't cut it. The A [...]

You might consider this to be flogging a dead hors [...]

Quote from: K-Dog on February 15, 2019, 08:01:48 P [...]

I go by a coal train almost every day.  It goes No [...]

 [img]https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/7Iwt [...]

Quote from: Surly1 on February 15, 2019, 08:58:33 [...]

Quote from: knarf on Today at 01:41:12 PMExtinctio [...]

Extinction Rebellion is back on the streets. Month [...]

The house speaker underlined ‘power of the purse’ [...]

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks about his new b [...]

The Jesus movement was never against the rich. It [...]

I was there in '66 when the old man worked at [...]

Too bad. I was in Boston exactly once, in 1985, wh [...]

Video capturing the heartbreaking moment when a tw [...]

You're probably right. And so is JHK. LOL. [...]

Quote from: Eddie on January 21, 2019, 09:28:37 AM [...]

The Iditarod, "The Last Great Race on Earth [...]

Quote from: Eddie on February 06, 2019, 08:06:11 A [...]

Good. Now treat him decently, even though he disag [...]

http://www.youtube.com/v/38AYeNGjqg0In the Sp... [...]

Print on Card Stock or better still Glossy Photo P [...]

Alternate Perspectives
  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

But We Need the Eggs Re-posted from Epsilon Theory   Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory is one of those rare [...]

About That Liberal Media.... By Cognitive Dissonance   Charts and Info from Business Insider   I dis [...]

Perhaps It’s Time to Believe the Impossible By Cognitive Dissonance     "Alice laughed: "T [...]

The Essence of Control Is Its Concealment By Cognitive Dissonance   For thousands of years “control” [...]

There Will Be Blood…and Many More Lies By Cognitive Dissonance   I suppose if we randomly stopped pe [...]

Event Update For 2019-02-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-02-16http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-02-15http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-02-14http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-02-13http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

MbS, the personification of the age-old pre-revolutionary scenario in which an expiring regime attem [...]

Daily Doom Photo

man-watching-tv

Sustainability
  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

Non-stick Pans and Sticky Memes"We have, through accident or design, structured the human ecology into a zero sum game, where [...]

Dancing with Ulysses"While it is yet unknowable if humans have the capacity to actually reverse climate change, a s [...]

Sargon and the Sea Peoples"For hundreds of years, stories of marauding Sea Peoples were told to frighten children."  [...]

Burning Down the Wall"Put a CARBONATOR-500 in a village in Honduras and you reverse the migrant caravans."Recen [...]

What can you do to prepare when you can’t?"A split vortex sending waves of cold into North America, Europe and Russia is what a warmer oc [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

To fight climate change, you need to get the world off of fossil fuels. And to do that, you need to [...]

Americans are good on the "thoughts and prayers" thing. Also not so bad about digging in f [...]

In the echo-sphere of political punditry consensus forms rapidly, gels, and then, in short order…cal [...]

Discussions with figures from Noam Chomsky and Peter Senge to Thich Nhat Hanh and the Dalai Lama off [...]

Lefty Greenies have some laudable ideas. Why is it then that they don't bother to really build [...]

Top Commentariats
  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

The difference between optimists, pesimists and realists is as follows: - the optimists see one aspe [...]

The peculiar and distinctive character of our civilisation is the destruction of the age-old agricul [...]

I would be inclined to date our civilisation from the beginning of the general use of coal-fueled ma [...]

Wow, it is great everything is free and all government services health, housing, education are high [...]

worldof I had the privilege to meet, as a student, one of the diplomats, by then a very frail old ma [...]

As some one who has spent years trying to figure out what the limits to growth are. let me say that [...]

Peak oil definitely happened for gods sake. Just because it isn't mad max right now is no indic [...]

@Volvo - KMO says he made some life choices he regrets. Not sure what they were. And I don't th [...]

I think KMO went on to do a bunch of prep, counting on peak oil coming soon. That didn't pan ou [...]

Here is a really good post on farming and meat eating from theautomaticearth: https://www.theautomat [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction
Useful Links
Technical Journals

The wood rot decay of structures and buildings in Norway represents high costs. This paper reports t [...]

Since 1850, the rise in global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) from increasing atmospheric concent [...]

Strong cold surge events (CSEs) are some of the most distinct winter weather events in East Asia, im [...]

Climate change incorporation in environmental assessment is a growing research area, particularly fo [...]

Follow on our http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/