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Location, Location, Location…

Published January 14, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 14, 2016

Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION: Where to go & what to do in the face of worsening Climate Chaos

Geoffrey Chia, January 2016

For abbreviations, see glossary at end

For the world, 2014 was the hottest year on record until 2015 proved even hotter. Fourteen of the fifteen hottest years ever recorded were from 2000 onwards. There is far worse yet to come. For decades we have been witnessing ever more frequent, ever more extreme weather events. Every year temperature, drought, storm and flood records are now being broken by the tens of thousands. They will become more frequent and more extreme until they plateau at an unknown global temperature equilibrium in the indeterminate future, by which time our planetary ecosystems will be catastrophically devastated. Objective realists who understand the climate science will accept that there is zero chance we can keep GATR under 4 degrees Celsius, even if all greenhouse gas emissions were to cease immediately. We have passed too many tipping points1. The IPCC blatantly ignored numerous vital issues (eg exponential methane release) in their climate calculations due to contamination by political interference. James Hansen called COP21 a "half assed and half baked" fraud (his exact words).

We must constructively use the precious time we have now, while our large scale organisational systems are still (barely) functioning, to act. Sensible people must find strategies to mitigate against or avoid the potential weather catastrophes which could befall them. For those of you who are willing and able, this may boil down to one thing: preparing to relocate. This is not selfish behaviour, it is simply taking responsibility for yourself. By ensuring your own safety you will represent one less family or group taking up the time and resources of the overwhelmed emergency services during periods of crisis. Worsening weather events combined with looming economic collapse and Hi-NES depletion mean that soon there will be no possibility of help from the authorities. No more water bombing from helicopters to save houses foolishly built in the middle of fire prone bush, to name just one example.

The MSM this recent December/January reported unprecedented storms in the USA (seven consecutive days of winter tornadoes in Texas – which has never happened in recorded history), unprecedented floods breaking the banks of the Mississippi, horrific floods in the UK (hundreds had to abandon their homes in York), severe floods in Northern Australia, unprecedented January floods in the NSW Hunter Valley and devastating wildfires in December in Southern Australia causing closure of the Great Ocean Road (and incineration of more than a hundred houses) to name just a few events. This did not even touch on the troubles in the less prosperous parts of the world, such as unprecedented floods in Brazil and Argentina affecting many more people, casually glossed over by the Western MSM.

On the other hand, New York city was 20 degrees Celsius on Christmas day, when it "should" have been in the subzero range. Approaching New Year's day, we witnessed mid winter temperatures above 0 degrees C at the North Pole, which was about 30 degrees C above the usual average for that time of year http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/weather-anomaly-north-pole-1.3385175

Welcome to the new normal.

I agree with Nicole Foss that it is foolish to paralytically mope over the prospect of AGW induced NTHE, it gets you nowhere. It is eminently sensible however to use our understanding of future climate chaos to plan and act. She herself made the rational decision to move from Northern hemisphere continental Canada to Southern hemisphere maritime NZ and I suspect climate change was one important reason. Her words and behaviour are those of a wise person with a great deal of foresight and we could do worse than emulate her.

Those who choose to gnash their teeth, tear their hair out and commit suicide now because they are inconsolably depressed about the prospect of NTHE are entitled to do so, but such WACKOs should shut up, die quietly and stop annoying normal people who value whatever remaining life they may have and wish to get on with useful activity to mitigate against future suffering and premature death.

Normal people should certainly take into account the prospect of worsening climate chaos when shaping future plans. One useful activity if you currently live in a risky area, is to ponder the characteristics of the ideal "climate safe" location, consider your options, then plan to move to the location with the best features you can find. Much better to be a pre-collapse intentional migrant, with your material and social resources all set in place in advance, rather than a post-collapse climate refugee fleeing with just the shirt on your back, swept along amongst a sea of strangers. Pre-emptive action will not eliminate your future risk of death or injury from weather extremes, which can still occur unpredictably in unexpected locations. But it will drastically reduce your risk.

Scientifically honest (not IPCC) climate projections, Geography and hard Physics are our main guiding principles, however other factors may prevail due to personal circumstance. I may identify Southern Chile as the location with the best long term survival prospects climatically, however I am unwilling and unable to move there for social, cultural, linguistic, logistical, financial, immigration and other reasons. Another drawback may be that your chosen "climate safe" location may not offer the very best prospects for the provision of fresh water, energy, fertile soils or security from the "marauding hordes". There may be ways around such limitations though. There is no such thing as a "perfect" location and decisions must always be made by considering advantages versus disadvantages, combined with your own value judgements.

It is impossible to be certain which location will be the very best, but if we encourage the creation of as many self sufficient homesteads and eco-communities as possible around the world in locations considered the "least bad", it will increase the prospect that at least one of them will end up being viable in the long term. If thousands of self sufficient homesteads are set up worldwide, it will not matter if 99.9% eventually fail, all we need is a handful or even just one of them to succeed in the long term to avoid NTHE.

If it is impossible for you to relocate right now, you can nevertheless pre-arrange prospective settlement at your chosen "least bad" destination right now. Options include purchasing or leasing the land (as an individual or group, depending on your situation) or entering some other contract (eg you can pre-negotiate sweat equity)2. You must also formulate a bugout plan to move there at short notice when your current neck of the woods threatens to destabilise. One strategy may be to build an offgrid tiny house on wheels which you can tow to your final destination, if pre-built accomodation is not available for you there. You must however move before chaos descends in your current neighbourhood, before highways become dangerous or blockaded and/or before such time that you cannot source sufficient petroleum for the long distance journey required. Better to be a few years early than one minute late.

In general terms, the likely temporal sequence for global collapse is: financial/economic collapse first, resource/oil constraints next and climate issues last. In specific terms however, many people have already had their homes wrecked by floods and storms or had to abandon their farms due to drought. In their case, climate collapse occurred first. We cannot know for sure what will hit us first and need to plan for everything simultaneously.

TRADITIONAL RIVERINE AND FLOOD PLAIN SETTLEMENTS

It is no coincidence that thousands of years ago; human settlements, agriculture and hence civilisation arose in river valleys or river deltas around the world wherever there was a hospitable climate. Rivers are sources of fresh water for drinking, cooking, washing and growing crops. Periodic flooding with the deposition of alluvial silt regenerated the soils with the necessary minerals and nutrients to enable sustainable crop yields over millenia. Wide valleys created by meandering rivers provided the flat land which was far easier to work on and travel over than, say, hillsides. (Difficult terrain did not however prevent humans in less geographically favourable areas such as the Andes from devising ingenious alternative methods such as terraced agriculture thousands of years ago).

Hence we can understand why a place like Bangladesh has such a large population today, although their days are now numbered due to inevitable sea level rise (not to mention other AGW threats such as more severe cyclones, disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers causing loss of summer irrigation and possible eventual failure of the monsoons).

Even before the days of AGW, there were significant disadvantages to settlement in a river valley or delta. Those very same seasonal floods which replenished the soils, if severe, could bring death and destruction in their wake, events which were well documented in the ancient records of the Egyptians (Nile) or Chinese (Hwang Ho), to give just two examples.

Another major disadvantage to riverside settlement was that before the advent of modern sanitation, the riverbank dwellers used those flowing waters both as a source of drinking water as well as an open sewer, resulting in orofecally transmitted diseases becoming endemic, with periodic lethal epidemics3 (affecting all the riverine communities downstream of the very highest settlement). Orofecal diseases could still be a problem for those who lived distant from the river banks, because raw faeces deposited in cesspits could contaminate the groundwater and nearby wells.

Nevertheless the advantages of river valley/delta settlement were on the whole much greater than the disadvantages. Despite periodic mass fatalities, the populations in those areas steadily increased.

However circumstances have now changed.

CHOOSING A "LEAST BAD" PLACE TO LIVE, IN THE FACE OF THE "NEW NORMAL"

AVOIDING EXTREME HEAT

With global average temperatures rising, we are witnessing the migration of tropical diseases to higher latitudes. With peak temperature records being broken we are witnessing more frequent and more severe heatwaves which will become ever more lethal (to humans, livestock and crops) as time goes by. With regard to such heat issues, the identification of our "ideal" location is dictated impassively by Geography and the Laws of Physics. However where we actually move to, if we move at all, is largely determined by social and emotional factors.

Land masses heat up much more quickly (and cool faster) than bodies of water. Comparatively speaking, water has a very high specific heat capacity. Therefore large bodies of water moderate local temperatures, they prevent huge temperature fluctuations. Thus windward coasts and islands have a maritime climate: the prevailing winds come from across the sea and prevent temperature extremes. This is exemplified by the Pacific coast of Canada which has the mildest climate of that country. On the other hand, even though Nova Scotia is maritime, being on the leeward (Eastern) side of Canada, it receives major atmospheric influences from the North American land mass. In winter it is considerably colder than Vancouver Island and in summer Westerly winds can drive the Nova Scotian temperatures higher.

Locations in the middle of continents are prone to the worst extremes of temperature. Indeed, just a short distance (eg 50km) inland from the coast can make a large difference. Humans can cope with extreme cold by layering on more insulation, but it is high temperatures which are more dangerous for large bodied mammals which are physiologically unable to dissipate heat above a wet bulb temperature of about 36 degrees Celsius. Humans can still survive during extreme heatwaves by retreating into underground dwellings or hillside caves. However the crops will not survive, nor will the livestock (unless the latter are also brought into the human cave dwellings during heatwaves – which will be unsanitary and may prove impossible due to lack of space and rambunctious animals). Even locations in the far North of Russia may be prone to lethal heatwaves in future summers, especially after the all permafrost, which now helps moderate the summer temperatures, melts (see paragraph on the latent heat of fusion of ice below). Furthermore the massive methane liberation from Northern Russia has accelerated their localised warming. Another contributor to the exponential temperature rise in the far North was the loss of albedo or reflectivity (the dark land or dark Arctic waters absorb light and hence heat up further, as opposed to the previous white snow or ice cover which reflected much of the light back into space).

Even before our current era of AGW (and before the advent of public health measures); malaria, a tropical disease, previously reached as far North as Archangel (near the Arctic circle) in Russia in summer4 (and was even documented North of the Arctic circle in Finland). In the future, no matter how far North on the Eurasian or North American continents you may emigrate, there may still be some risk of intermittent lethal heatwaves from continental Southerly winds in summer, unless you live on the windward (Western) coast of the continents eg the Pacific coast of Canada or Alaska or the Atlantic coast of Norway. Windward islands such as Vancouver Island (influenced by the Pacific) or Iceland, Ireland and Britain (influenced by the Atlantic) will also be much less prone to lethal heatwaves than continental locations. However as we can see from the winter storms and severe flooding that the UK recently suffered, they will not be immune to other problems.

Instead of moving to a higher latitude, some may consider moving to a higher altitude to avoid heatwaves. Depending on the height of the mountain you have in mind and depending on your timeline (eg a relatively short 20 years), this may be a valid strategy. However such a move may leave you stranded. We are observing right now the phenomenon of many species of plants and animals migrating up mountainsides as the years become progressively hotter, however once they reach the summit there is nowhere to go. If temperatures rise further and they are species unique to that mountain, they will go extinct.

Here is another drawback: high altitude locations are inevitably somewhat inland from the ocean dominated, temperature moderated coast. Hence unless your altitude is very high, the reduction in temperature afforded by your altitude may be negated by your location inland in the heat of summer, resulting in no net temperature benefit. Indeed you may eventually face net temperature detriment as AGW progresses, with nowhere to go.

It is possible the only prospect of long term survival may be the combination of high latitude and altitude, the ultimate being the mountains on Antarctica, the last resort if the world becomes horrendously hotter (eg 10 degrees Celsius GATR), perhaps a century from now.

The far North, including the Arctic ocean, will be completely ice free in summer and autumn very shortly. The Southern hemisphere offers much better survival prospects compared with the Northern hemisphere. Large ice masses are extremely important to moderate the temperature.

One calorie is defined as the amount of heat which raises one gram of water by one degree Celsius. The latent heat of fusion of ice is about 80 calories per gram http://www.britannica.com/science/latent-heat. This means that it takes 80 calories to melt one gram of ice to one gram of water at the unchanged temperature of zero degrees. If another 80 calories is then applied to that one gram of water, its temperature will rise to 80 degrees Celsius. This is indisputable Physics, a law of Nature. But it has horrendous implications for an ice free far North.

The last remaining ice in the world will be on Antarctica, which will moderate the temperature of the Southern Ocean, which will in turn moderate the temperatures of far South coastal locations such as the tip of South America and the South Island of NZ. Hence even when the far North of Russia or Canada may be prone to lethal heatwaves in the Northern summer, the coastal and island locations deep in the Southern hemisphere will still offer comfortable living temperatures in the Southern summer, at least till the ice on Antarctica melts. Mainland Australia is too far North to be viable, that entire continent will be toast.

Other reasons why the deep south of the Southern hemisphere will be much more viable for survival are:

low population density, hence less marauding hordes and more land area per capita on which to grow food and
minimal risk of nuclear fallout, whether from global thermonuclear conflict or the meltdown of nuclear power stations (almost all of the 400+ nuclear power stations in the world are in the Northern hemisphere). The Coriolis force from planetary rotation keeps the air masses of the Northern and Southern hemispheres largely separate, almost quarantined from each other.

AVOIDING EXTREME STORMS

Tornadoes, although horrifically fierce, impose their fury with very localised focus, they only cause damage in geographically very limited areas. On the large scale, the most violent and powerful storms on Earth are of course hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons, which originate at sea. Their formation generally require a surface ocean temperature above 26.5 degrees C https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclogenesis which is why at present they do not commence at high latitudes. With progressive AGW, future cyclones will produce much worse precipitation and flooding because saturated air contains 7% more water vapour for every 1 deg C temperature rise. Furthermore, much of the energy of the cyclones come from the latent heat of condensation of that water, hence more moisture means fiercer storms. Wind speeds of well over 300km/hr have been recorded in such storms in recent years. These projections are indisputable Physics, just as robust as the law of gravity. In future, cyclones will undoubtedly be moving to higher latitudes. For example in Queensland, cyclones are a routine summer hazard in Cairns, but are exceedingly rare in Brisbane. It is just a matter of time however before cyclones also become a regular feature of the Brisbane summers.

The power of cyclones dissipate when they move inland. Hence to avoid cyclones, the options are to move far inland, which is not ideal because you will then be at risk of future severe summer heatwaves from the continental influence, or to stay on the coast but move to a higher latitude. What is the highest latitude that the cyclones will eventually reach? No one knows, hence it is best to move to the highest latitude you are able.

Wherever you end up, you will still encounter intermittent storms. If you settle on a high latitude island, it will at least be preferable to encounter a 150km/h storm, than if you stay at a lower latitude location and face a 300km/h hurricane.

AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC FLOODS AND SEA LEVEL RISE

The approach here appears simple: do not live on a flood plain or river valley and choose an elevation above the expected sea level rise. The actual elevation you choose will be more complicated though. It depends on the projected worst case scenarios, as well as on how long you expect you, your children or your grandchildren will live. If your timeline is 20 years, you can choose a lower elevation but if your timeline is 80 years, you should choose a higher elevation. Alternatively you may begin on a lower level and if you have easily demountable or mobile housing, you or your offspring can later move up in the world.

My advice would be to ignore the IPCC worst case scenario of up to 1 metre sea level rise by 2100, it is rubbish. They have a terrible track record of underestimating the rate of glacial melt and the rate of sea level rise which we now know is proving to be non-linear. James Hansen's analysis indicates it could be exponentially worse than originally expected and even a 10 metre sea level rise is possible by 2065. However if your timeline is, say 40 years (ie up to mid century), then choosing land which is a minimum of ten metres AMSL is probably acceptable for now, perhaps a bit higher if your location is coastal and subject to severe storm surges. By David Wasdell's reckoning, well over 20 metres AMSL future rise is already baked into the cake, based on our existing 480ppm CO2 equivalent GHG concentrations. However no one knows when that final level will eventuate.

Quite apart from sea level rise or riverine flooding at low altitudes, even a location high up in the mountains may be prone to occasional flash flooding during thunderstorms, due to rapid surface runoff and temporary pooling caused by the topography, hence do your homework before choosing any piece of land.

WATER SOURCES

By choosing to live away from river valleys and other flood prone areas, you will not have access to large rivers or lakes, which are the most copious and most easily accessible sources of fresh water. How then will you obtain and manage your water needs with less copious sources?

Rainfall

Being on the windward coast of a continent and facing the prevailing ocean winds does NOT guarantee regular rainfall, or indeed any rainfall at all. Ocean currents play a vital role. On the mid latitude West coasts of South America and Africa, cold ocean currents (Humbolt and Benguela) ensure that warm moist onshore winds release their precipitation well before reaching land, resulting in the Atacama and Namib deserts.

On the other hand, at the extremes of Southern latitude, windward mountainous coasts tend to have the most reliable relief rainfall in the world, due to the unimpeded passage of Westerly winds across the uninterrupted belt of the Southern Ocean (the roaring forties and furious fifties). These features are determined by Geography and the rotation of the Earth. Locations such as the Southwest coast of NZ and far South Chile are at present unpleasantly cold and wet, resulting in a low population density. However with worsening AGW and reliable fresh water being the most valuable future resource, those locations are likely to become the most favourable (or the least unfavourable) for human habitation. One disadvantage of those locations is that they are prone to earthquakes (as well as volcanic eruptions in the case of Chile).

CSIRO projections over the next 25 years suggest that the movement of the Hadley cells towards the Poles will lead to more summer rains in the Northern Australia and less winter rains in the deep South of Australia. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au CSIRO / BOM January 2015 report. Right now, Adelaide and Melbourne are suffering from ever worsening summer heat waves and becoming ever drier and we need to seriously question if they may become completely unviable over the next 10 years.

Wells and boreholes

Hillside rain which seeps into the ground may enter porous strata or rock fractures, through which it will continue to move by the force of gravity. It will then be analogous to an "underground stream", an aquifer containing moving water. A spring is nothing more than the surface exit point of this "underground stream" on a hillside, as it encounters impermeable rock underneath. As such, the spring depends on regular hillside rainfall to be recharged.

Not all wells and boreholes are the same. Some may tap into "underground streams", which eventually drain by gravity into rivers, lakes or the sea. These wells and boreholes are also dependent on regular rainfall to be recharged. Hence having a well or borehole will not necessarily drought proof your property.

Some aquifers are proper underground reservoirs. Their water does not drain away if untapped. On the large scale, humans have unsustainably harvested the largest fossil aquifers on the various continents (eg Ogallala in North America) as one-off windfall resources. Numerous boreholes tapping into the same aquifer leads to competitive depletion. Recharge by rainfall can occur but is a very slow process and depending on the aquifer may take thousands to millions of years. They are generally too deep anyway for small scale homesteaders to access.

Processing seawater

Turning seawater into freshwater is very energy intensive. On the other hand, if you live near the coast and your freshwater streams, dams, springs and boreholes have gone dry, seawater is the only water source which is guaranteed to never, ever disappear.

The fastest rate of production of freshwater from seawater is achieved by reverse osmosis. The output of the smallest marine desal unit for a boat is around 25 litres per hour and it can be powered by solar panels (or other renewable electricity). I would however advise against depending on this technology. Even though "reverse flush" mechanisms can prolong the lifespan of the membranes, it is complicated technology with many potential points of failure (solar panels, voltage regulator, batteries, high pressure pump, membranes etc). Despite careful maintenance, it can and will eventually fail. The best units having a lifespan of about 8 years. Furthermore it is very expensive.

Distillation of seawater by boiling is simple and foolproof but very energy wasteful (firewood is valuable fuel) and produces only small volumes each time. Nevertheless you may have to resort to this in an emergency. It produces absolutely pure and sterile drinking water (perhaps pure to the point of blandness).

MITIGATING AGAINST DROUGHT: Innovative Water Management Strategies in your chosen "least bad" location

Let us take this scenario: you have chosen to settle on the West coast of Vancouver Island.

The lowest point of your property at the oceanfront is 10 metres AMSL and the highest point is 30 metres. You are not on a flood plain or in a river valley. Your homestead is horizontally 200 metres from the ocean front and the gradient and topography of your land ensure excellent runoff of heavy rain straight into the sea, hence you are immune to floods. There are no trees in the immediate vicinity of your home, minimising incineration risk should a nearby bush fire erupt. Your land gradually slopes down to the South enabling optimal passive solar heating of your off-grid cottage and greenhouse and optimal sun exposure for growing your crops. Your soil is impoverished, however you have purchased tonnes of chemical fertiliser to kickstart your crops. You will in future "close the nutrient loop" by "fertigation" with urine mixed with gray water, as well as application of mulch, livestock manure and human manure which will (in future) be rendered innocuous by composting for 1-2 years before being used as fertiliser. You are exploring the possibility of using a modified solar oven setup to greatly speed up the composting of the manure.

You have no access to any large lake or river, but have a small spring and pond on your property which have never gone dry in living memory. Given that we are now regularly experiencing unprecedented weather events never before seen in living memory, you are rightly concerned that your spring and pond could dry up during an unexpectedly prolonged drought in future. The probability may be low, given that you are on the windward side of a mountainous island which tends to have reliable rainfall, however if such a drought does occur it will spell complete disaster for you. Fresh water is a sine qua non for life. Hence the precautionary principle dictates that you must plan for such an eventuality.

You cannot tap into a deep aquifer. A hydrogeologist has advised you that there is a fair likelihood of striking shallow groundwater (above the saline level) with an exploratory borehole, however the water resource in that underground "stream" will be similar to your surface spring in that both require rainfall to be recharged. If the rains fail and the spring runs dry, the borehole can also run dry (although ground water is generally more resistant to surface drought). What other water management options do you have?

We are incredibly fortunate these days to have access to very simple low tech and highly robust strategies to address these concerns, namely: water tanks, the urine separating composting toilet, the ability to use gray water for irrigation, drip irrigation of crops and (in emergency) distillation of seawater using custom designed solar ovens.

WATER TANKS

The water storage tank is neither a glamorous nor a recent invention, which may explain why its impact has been largely ignored and overlooked. The use of in-ground tanks (with impermeable fired-clay lining) to store fresh water dates back thousands of years, the precursor to the in-ground concrete reservoir. The much cheaper (and transportable) above ground steel or plastic rainwater storage tank represents the key innovation which now enables us to live far from rivers and lakes while still enjoying regular fresh water supplies to meet all our needs, including permaculture. The "new normal" climate in many parts of the world is becoming that of furious thunderstoms (which lead to flash flooding and rapid runoff losses of most of the water), alternating with prolonged crippling droughts. The water tank allows us to quickly harvest the profuse but transient bounty of the thunderstorms and can tide us through long dry periods. How long we can last between rainshowers depends on our annual rainfall, roof collection area and tank capacity, measured against our rate of water consumption. Each homestead will have to do its own calculations, however if in doubt the best strategy is to simply collect and store as much rainwater as you are able.

This other side of the equation, reduction of water consumption, is a key principle which must be strongly emphasised and reinforced over and over. Efficient water usage can enable huge savings, allowing a little to go a long way. The next three sections describe revolutionary methods of water conservation which still enable outcomes every bit as good as compared with our current standard wasteful water practices.

THE URINE SEPARATING COMPOSTING TOILET

Our standard flush toilets discard huge volumes of precious drinking quality water down the drain. One full flush may utilise as much as nine or ten litres and a partial flush perhaps three litres. It all adds up to criminal waste which can be entirely prevented by the adoption of flushless toilets, the best type (in my opinion) being the odourless urine separating composting toilet which fulfils a multitude of functions, yet has the most basic KISS design. I have discussed this topic in greater detail in my article on tiny houses, which also described a very water efficient way of bathing:

http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

Imagine this: due to your simple adoption of the urine separating composting toilet, additional pristine fresh water (which in conventional toilets would have normally been flushed down the sewer), is freed up, leading to a surfeit of freshwater availability which well exceeds your daily drinking and domestic needs. Not only that, after being used in the kitchen or laundry or shower, the gray water is not simply discarded either: it is sent onward to irrigate your permaculture enclosure, to grow your crops. This is easily done with simple forward planning and represents the ultimate in water efficiency. In addition urine and (fully composted) humanure are valuable additions to the permaculture garden.

DOMESTIC GRAY WATER FOR IRRIGATION:

Conventional urban systems discard gray water into sewers where it mixes with raw faeces. This effluent is minimally processed at a central sewage plant then discharged, usually into a rivermouth or the sea. Sewage containing raw or minimally processed faeces is biologically hazardous and unacceptable for irrigation. This system requires pumps, hence if the grid goes down, the sewage system seizes up. Severe floods can cause the system to back up and if the riverbanks break and the sewage treatment plants are flooded, the entire waterlogged landscape becomes contaminated.

At the top end, lake, reservoir or upstream river water is harvested for domestic, industrial or agricultural use. Denial of natural downstream riverine flow causes the death of these ecosystems.

Here is an alternative decentralised approach which can be adopted on any rural homestead: Fresh urine with no fecal admixture is sterile. If the urine is separated at source and mixed with domestic gray water (free of chemicals and excessive phosphates) this nitrate rich fluid now represents a valuable and biologically safe resource for crop irrigation. It must not however be stored in tanks where it will become noxious, but must be immediately discharged from your dwelling into your drip feed irrigation pipes or swales in your permaculture enclosure, where soil organisms can process it and plants can utilise it.

The ideal permaculture setup will be one in which no (or minimal) pumps are needed, the water being channeled by gravity feed. Here is one suggestion using the example of a group of tiny houses. The reed beds may in fact be redundant:

The domestic gray water supply alone is unlikely to be sufficient for irrigation requirements, hence dual irrigation feeds (from domestic gray water and directly from the rainwater tanks) will need to be set up.

DRIP IRRIGATION

Standard sprinklers spray water indiscriminately about, with much of it landing on soil distant from the plant roots. This ill targeted water then simply evaporates. Drip irrigation, feeding water directly to the roots of the plants, has a long history and has been refined over millenia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drip_irrigation

The methods are well proven and need to be embraced more widely.

SOLAR OVEN DISTILLATION OF SEAWATER

Your homestead on Vancouver Island is horizontally only 200 metres away from the ocean front, where the land suddenly dips down 10 metres, cliff-like, to the waters edge. It is an easy climb down the "cliff", hence you have easy seawater access. It is also simple to rig a solar powered seawater pump if you so choose.

Due to a prolonged drought, you will by now be bathing and washing your dishes with sea water rather than fresh water. However you will be able to distil enough fresh water not only for drinking and cooking but will also have surplus volumes to rinse away salt residue after you have washed yourself and your dishes with seawater. Hence you are adapting to changed circumstances without actually experiencing significant hardship or lifestyle compromise. Stored foodstuffs will see you through this period of crop failure. You have made it your policy to always have at least one year's worth of preserved food stored away.

Distillation of seawater using custom built large solar ovens may be a slow daytime-only process, however it is steady, reliable, robust, idiot proof and dirt cheap. Apart from an optional solar powered pump for seawater intake, it has no mechanical or electronic components to fail. Here is a self explanatory diagram:

Construction of such a solar oven will be dead simple, even for a "Homer Simpson" type carpenter like myself, but will of course be impossible if the materials are unobtainable in a post collapse situation. The key is to gather the necessary materials now before TSHTF, which you can store indefinitely in your shed until such time that construction becomes necessary.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Due to the attractive agricultural prospects and easy availability of copious freshwater in river basins, some folks may refuse to leave the riverine areas they are familiar with, which they have lived in all their lives. One way to cope with severe periodic floods will be to dwell in an off-grid, flat hulled houseboat. Modern houseboats are incredibly well appointed these days, with the same cavernous space, comfortable furniture and amenities of fixed conventional dwellings, indeed many houseboats are quite luxurious.

You will have your houseboat delivered by semitrailer to your plot and it will sit on dry land most of the time. However when the inevitable torrential downpour generates a veritable biblical flood and as the waters rise, so will your dwelling, keeping all within safe and dry. You will set two hefty anchors, more than enough to ensure your houseboat cannot be swept away by the fierce currents. The main risk will be from flotsam and jetsam impacting your hull. Prior steel reinforcement of the bow of your houseboat prevents structural damage5. You will laugh at the elements as you sip your cup of hot cocoa, warm, dry and lounging in your reclining armchair, as you gaze out of your watertight panoramic windows at the pelting rain. Your friend calls you on your mobile phone and you tell her you are thinking of changing your name to Noah and you both chuckle. She too is snug as a bug in a rug in her own houseboat.

CONCLUSION:

This article attempts to confer information which may be of actual use and value to readers. Therefore it could never appear on NBL, as their ideology insists that nothing can be done, hence everyone should to do nothing6, which will lead to their own self fulfilling prophecy of premature death.

This essay is not intended to be an exhaustive discourse on physics, geography, geology, weather and climate and by necessity must omit many details of the mechanics of these topics. Nevertheless the broad principles outlined enable a general understanding of what is happening and what is likely to happen. Qualified scientists are invited to point out any inadvertent factual errors I may have committed.

There is no single magical solution to the problems ahead. Each individual's circumstance and decision making will be different. This article is intended mainly to provoke thought and motivate your own personal planning and action to minimise your future risk.

Geoffrey Chia is and Australian Physician with a longstanding interest in sustainabillity issues

Footnotes:

Climate scientist Dr David Wasdell summarised the most objectively realistic planetary scenario (derived from proper peer reviewed science and not contaminated or watered down by political interference), projecting 8 to 10 degrees Celsius GATR in his comprehensive November 2015 presentation, available on his Apollo-Gaia webpage.
You cannot simply invade and squat on someone else's land, otherwise you may be treated aggressively as one of the "zombie hordes", perhaps even killed. On the other hand, if you pre-negotiate your settlement there with the offer to grow food or provide other skills, you will be welcomed and valued.
Indeed, this may have been the selection pressure which allowed the cystic fibrosis gene to persist in Western European populations. Individuals heterozygous for cystic fibrosis have slightly "stickier" secretions than those without the gene, hence may be less prone to fatal watery diarrhoea if infected with cholera. Homozygous individuals have extremely sticky secretions and die young from bronchiectasis (clogging of the tubes in the lungs) or secondary biliary cirrhosis (clogging of the tubes in the liver).
I first learned this fact from Bruce-Chwatt's Essential Malariology which is the classic textbook on malaria. See also: https://contagions.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/malaria-near-the-arctic-circle/
Tools and equipment in sheds may be damaged or swept away unless they too are stored in floating watertight sheds which are also anchored in place. This may be impractical for large items such as tractors which can however be parked on a barge, which will also be anchored. A little bit of creativity can go a long way when planning for our challenging future.
Except "pursue lives of excellence" which is an utterly meaningless platitude. Only stupid people would consider such an unhelpful catchphrase to be sage advice. It is akin to saying to the starving masses, "let them eat cake" or Joe Hockey saying to the public who cannot afford housing these days, "get a high paying job".

Glossary:

AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming

AMSL = Above Mean Sea Level

COP21 = 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris 2015, which attempted to negotiate global climate policy based on IPCC recommendations

GATR = Global Average Temperature Rise

IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KISS = Keep It Simple, Stupid

HI-NES = High Net Energy Sources (eg conventional oil sources before post-Peak depletion)

MSM = Main Stream Media

NBL = Nature Bats Last website

NTHE = Near Term Human Extinction

TSHTF = The Shit Hits The Fan

WACKOs = Whiny Anonymous Cowardly Killjoy Orcs

Posted in Home | Tagged Bugout, Climate Change | 6 Comments

Syria through Multiple Lenses

Published October 8, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 8, 2016

Discuss this article at the Geopolitics Table inside the Diner

Many commentators have sought explanations and solutions for the Syrian debacle. Only by accurately identifying the underlying cause(s) of a situation can we begin to craft workable solutions, if any solutions are possible at all.

To me, this is akin to making an accurate diagnosis when faced with a complex pathological condition, then trying to shape a management plan to achieve a cure (or at least to aim for symptomatic relief and palliation, if the situation is irredeemable). As I have stated before in my essay "How to cure Terrorism" 1 it is essential to identify not only the underlying cause(s) of a situation and any predisposing factors, but should also (in the case of sudden collapse), identify any proximate triggers.

How do we know a diagnosis is accurate? Because the correct paradigm bears all the hallmarks of Truth, viz:

It is supported by the best evidence
It is coherent (internally and externally consistent), with plausible underlying mechanisms operating within its framework
It offers the best explanation for the situation
It may have useful predictive value for future outcome(s) ie it can offer a prognosis
The elimination/resolution of properly identified underlying cause(s), predisposing factors(s) and proximate trigger(s) will offer the best prospect of a cure.

Again, I have used these principles in past essays when outlining the epidemiological truth that smoking causes lung cancer (even though it is impossible to demonstrate a one-to-one cause and effect relationship in any individual lung cancer case). I also used these principles to prove that the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 had nothing to do with WMDs or the pursuit of "freedom" or "democracy" nor was it about deposing a tyrant "for the sake of the Iraqi people". The truth was that the invasion of Iraq was about OIL: specifically about the US pursuit of oil related economic, political and military global power. The ideology of US neoconartist global dominance mediated by the control over the flow of oil and the enforced continuity of the petrodollar scheme.

I cannot delve into the Syrian situation in detail here, which would require a lengthy Phd type thesis. Instead I will simply outline various useful lenses through which the Syrian situation may be viewed. Lenses are meant to help us see better. They may help us see clearly various portions of a jigsaw puzzle which make up our "big picture" of Truth. However some lenses may be fabricated for political purposes and cause complete distortion. They are contrived propaganda, crafted to serve the agenda of the angloeurozionist "GIMME" (Government, Industrial, Military, Media & Economic) establishment. Intellectual Kool Aid to keep the masses brain dead (to mix several metaphors).

Let us first cast aside a couple of blatantly bogus paradigms:

The Syrian situation is a revolution against tyranny by the common Syrians who are clamouring for democracy and freedom, which was what the "Arab Spring" was all about.

This utterly bullshit paradigm was best demolished by Tom Lewis with his inimitable wry manner in a podcast I have referenced in the past. 2

The Syrian situation is a religious civil war, mainly a domestic Sunni versus Alawite/Shi'ite conflict. As I mentioned in a previous essay, Bashar Al-Assad, nominally an Alawite, was a member of the Baathist secular party and he himself married a Sunni lady. There are NO clearcut religious lines here. Nor is it a particularly domestic dispute. The so-called Syrian Sunni rebel groups include among their numbers many foreign intruders. ISIS is a foreign invasion force. The most effective fighters against ISIS are the Kurds and most of those in Syria are indeed Syrian. Kurds are nominally Sunni and may be genuinely religious, but their outlook is fairly progressive and they take pride in their courageous female soldiers who do not wear headscarves. ISIS claim to be pious Sunni Muslims, which is a complete lie. ISIS are fake Muslims, they are primarily terrorists, rapists and gangsters who hide behind the bogus banner of a religion to legitimise their anti-human activities in pursuit of their unrestrained lust for power. This is identical to how the US corporate owned politicians hide behind the bogus banner of "freedom" or "democracy" to legitimise their anti-human agenda of global ecocide, in pursuit of their unrestrained lust for power. ISIS was in fact the creation of the US GIMME establishment. The "religious civil war in Syria" paradigm ignores the numerous external operators who are major players. The so-called "moderate" Sunni rebels in Syria are deeply intertwined with many Salafist extremists including the notorious Jabhat Al Nusra (who are Al Qaeda in Syria). US State Department spokesperson Elizabeth Trudeau admitted this fact at a press conference on 3 October, which was held to announce the breakdown of discussions between Russia and the US over Syria. Trudeau said the US had been unable to "demarble" (her word) the "moderate" Sunni rebels from entities such as Al Nusra, who she admits are Al Qaeda terrorists. Hence by their own admission, ongoing US support for these rebels represents support for terrorist criminals. I have provided other references for these facts in previous essays.

Evidence-based "lenses" with good explanatory power, which confer better understanding of the Syrian situation:

The events leading up to the collapse of Syria were manifestations of the Limits to Growth. In a previous essay I outlined the problem of declining Syrian petroleum production which intersected with their increased domestic oil consumption (Peak Oil combined with the ELM) which resulted in zero oil income and hence contributed to their economic demise. 3 A smaller Syrian population of the past could have been sustained by fewer resources, but the large population of 23 million by 2011 faced severe per capita shortfalls of everything. The worst drought in living memory from 2006 to 2010, which was aggravated by climate change, led to agricultural collapse, the mass migration of impoverished farmers to the cities, food shortages, conflicts and the breakdown of society.

The LtG re-ignited old tribal and sectarian conflicts which were greatly magnified by the post colonial legacy of egregious gerrymandering (Sykes-Picot "treaty") 3. Each sect is largely motivated by their own self interest, irrespective of whatever religious banner they may claim live under, whether they be the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood (who have a long history of striving to gain power in Syria), the Kurds (who are struggling for an independent homeland), the Alawites (who initially hoped to maintain control over Syria but are now engaged in an existential struggle for survival) and so forth.

Syria is a proxy war in the new Great Game. The US has more than 800 overseas military bases 4 around the world. In contrast, Syria is the last remaining foreign outpost of Russian military influence in the world, with the port of Tartus and the airfield at Latakia hosting Russian warships and planes. Since the end of the Cold War, the unbridled US hegemonic agenda of complete global dominance has been characterised by their mindless and destructive policy of foreign regime change to install puppet leaders under US control. This agenda was exemplified by the US / NATO covert regime change imposed on Ukraine with resultant civil war and the ongoing encirclement of Russia by US nuclear missles. Ukraine, formerly the bread basket of Europe, has now become the basket case of Europe. Let is not even delve into Iraq or Libya. In the case of Syria, the US have been trying to get rid of Russian ally Bashar Al-Assad and replace him with a US puppet. Why did Russia begin their foray into Syria by dramatically launching low flying, contour hugging "under the radar" cruise missiles from ships far, far away in the Caspian sea? Why not just use their bombers based in Latakia? ISIS may have copped the cruise missiles, but the Russians were primarily sending a message to Uncle Sam: your super expensive high tech US aircraft carrier fleets are now completely obsolete. Russia these days is able to deploy unstoppable massive conventional force from a distance which the US cannot possibly counter (the same capability is certainly true for China, who spend far more on their military than Russia). The USA is now railroading the entire world into a possible Hot War which can easily turn into a global thermonuclear war, for no reason other than their crazed hunger for power.

Apart from Russia and the US, there are other "lesser puppet masters" who have their own reasons for meddling in Syria. In the "Russian" camp there are Iran, Shi'ites from Iraq and Hezbollah. In the "US" camp there are Saudi Arabia and Qatar (and to a lesser extent other Gulf players such as Kuwait), who have also employed foreign mercenaries such as Chechens.

The schizophrenic involvement of a particular proxy player, Turkey: Turkey, as a NATO member, nominally claims to be on the US side and against ISIS. However under the wily maneuvering of the duplicitous Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the reality is much more complex. What Erdogan says and does are often contradictory and discordant. One fact is crystal clear however: Erdogan's actions are always in the service of his own self interest and in that sense he cannot be regarded as a true US puppet. Recent events in Turkey have been thoroughly fascinating and warrant detailed analysis far beyond the scope of this short essay. Some examples:

1. Erdogan had been buying cheap oil illegally from ISIS, oil which had been stolen from Iraq. This oil entered Turkey via road trains through the (intentionally) porous Turkish-Syrian border. Erdogan was therefore in fact financing ISIS, his nominal enemy. This fact was patently obvious to the USA from satellite images, which America chose to ignore, which adds credence to the view that the US actually supports ISIS while pretending to oppose it. This illegal oil trade was abruptly terminated by Russian bombing, in response to which Erdogan petulantly shot down a Russian plane, a reckless act of despicable bastardry which could have triggered wider scale war if not for Russian restraint.
2. Last year, Turkish media exposed the fact that the Erdogan government had been illegally supplying weapons to extremist insurgents across the (intentionally) porous Turkish-Syrian border. Such a domestic media expose will not happen again, not because Erdogan has changed his ways, but because he has now muzzled the Turkish media.
3. Erdogan regards his primary enemy as the Kurds because the Turkish Kurds threaten to secede from his neo-Ottoman aspirational empire to form an independent Kurdistan in conjuction with the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. Therefore he does not hesitate to use a secondary enemy, ISIS, as a tool against his primary enemy. This explains his partial support for ISIS, even as he fights against ISIS at other times and in other places that suit him. Note that the Turks, Kurds and ISIS are all supposedly Sunni, hence none of this has anything to do with religion.
4. We do not know for sure who masterminded the recent "failed coup" in Turkey, but we do know who has benefited the most from it. Erdogan has since been able to cast aside any pretence of due process and has summarily purged more than a hundred thousand potential dissidents and opponents from all positions of influence in Turkey. He has thoroughly entrenched his power and is essentially now a totalitarian dictator. He embarrassed the US with the accusation that America was harbouring and supporting the purported coup organiser Fetullah Gulen. It is true that America will stand to gain by installing a more US compliant puppet leader in Turkey, hence this accusation is not one which can be easily dismissed by US propaganda, given America's well known repetitive policy of foreign regime change.
5. Being irate (or pretending to be irate) with the US, Erdogan then decided to kiss and make up with Putin, who then allowed the resumption of Russian tourism into Turkey, an extremely valuable source of income for Ankara. That, as well as the future possibility of a Russian gas pipeline through Turkey to Europe, another money spinner.
6. It is true that Turkey has taken on more than its fair share of Iraqi and Syrian refugees, now harbouring more than three million 5. On the other hand, Erdogan has cynically used the Syrian refugees as human bargaining chips to get what he wants from the EU. He has shown he is willing and able to open and close the floodgates of refugees from Turkey into Europe and thereby has been able to extort money from the EU and prise out freedom of movement privileges for Turks into the EU.
7. By offering Turkish citizenship to more than 2 million Syrian Sunni Muslims, Erdogan will be able to increase his support and power base in Turkey, as he is aligned with the Sunni fundamentalists. Erdogan opposes and is opposed by secular Turks (especially those in the military who had traditionally been faithful to the secular principles of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk).
8. The Machiavellian Erdogan has repeatedly demonstrated a nimble ability to have his cake and eat it (that is, until such future time when an jackal can find a way to penetrate his security detail and assassinate him). Any serious coup organiser worth their salt would have commenced their operation by assassinating the incumbent. The fact that Erdogan escaped such a fate indicates that either the coup planners were utterly incompetent or that it may indeed have been a false flag event engineered by Erdogan himself.

Syria is a proxy war over natural gas pipelines: In order to understand the geopolitical considerations about this proxy pipeline war, it is essential to understand the physical properties of natural gas, which render it a far inferior source of energy (and source of money) compared with petroleum. Nevertheless if sold in vast quantities to a vast market, the money to be made can be mind boggling. Key considerations:

If a natural gas field straddles a political border and is "shared" by two parties, the party which extracts the gas first and fastest will be able to harvest most, if not all the wealth from that field, because the gas will rapidly move through the field towards the extraction point. Contrast that characteristic with viscous crude oil, which can only sluggishly migrate at a maximum rate of 6% per year through porous rock.
Early gas extraction is of no value unless you have an immediate market to offload the gas. Natural gas is just too energy sparse to economically store above ground in significant quantities for any length of time.
The optimal market for the gas is one close to the gas field. The further away the market, the more expensive it is to transport the gas and hence the lower the profit margin. Even if the market is thousands of kilometers away however, profit margins can still be good, so long as the gas can be transported by pipeline in gaseous form. Export to far distant locations (eg another continent) is only feasible by liquefaction to render it far more energy dense. Making energy dense liquid natural gas requires refrigeration down to about minus 163 degrees Celsius, cryogenic storage and transportation in highly insulated, massive, purpose built LNG tankers which require continuous refrigeration. Refrigeration energy requirements are particularly high when the tankers sail through the tropics. Any power failure will be catastrophic. The LNG trade requires special facilities at the importing port which can accept and process this tricky commodity. All those factors amount to huge energy expenditure, huge capex, custom construction of port facilities and tankers and also requires a cashed up customer with advanced infrastructure. If the market price for natural gas falls, the whole system collapses financially, hence LNG schemes can be likened to unconventional oil scams. LNG export in lifecycle analysis has very poor EROEI compared with piped gas export.

The above considerations form the foundation for an understanding of the Syrian pipeline proxy war. The South Pars / North Dome gas field is the largest conventional natural gas field in the world. It is mostly located under the seabed of the Persian Gulf and straddles the borders of Iran to the NorthEast and Qatar to the SouthWest who are bitter enemies. Even though it has been in production for more than a decade, the party who accelerates their extraction will effectively steal most of that remaining resource away from the other party. However that gas cannot be quickly harvested without first ensuring there is a big market for it. A big market cannot be assured unless there are pipelines in place to supply that market. Qatar does export LNG (mainly to East Asia), but this is subject to the substantial constraints outlined above, with limited profit margins. The most prized gas market from the view of both Qatar and Iran, is Western Europe. The party that can establish a pipeline to Europe first will win that prize. The critical territory the pipeline must cross, determined by geography, is Syria. In 2009 Qatar, a Sunni client state of the US, approached Bashar Al Assad proposing such a pipeline through Aleppo province. Not surprisingly, Assad knocked back Qatar's proposal because it ran counter to his political alliances. A Qatari pipeline would undermine the price of Russian gas exported to Western Europe and would scuttle Iran's chance of benefiting from South Pars. When Iran subsequently approached Assad about such a pipeline, economic circumstances in Syria had by then greatly deteriorated. This new pipeline proposal from Iran, a Shi'ite state and ally of both Syria and Russia, came with the promise they would turn Syria into an energy processing, money making hub. Assad was therefore ready to proceed with Iran's deal. Shortly thereafter, the "civil war" in Syria broke out, instigated by so-called "Syrian" rebel groups which actually consisted of many foreign mercenaries funded largely by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

At the time of writing of this essay in early October, Aleppo city is on the verge of being recaptured from ISIS by Syrian government forces with the help of Russia. That did not stop Turkey from moving troops into Aleppo province last month under operation "Euphrates shield", Turkey's proposal being to create and occupy a "neutral" buffer zone. Of course, it is nonsensical to regard such a zone in Northern Syria as neutral: if defacto occupied by Turkey, it is defacto neo-Ottoman empire annexed territory. Perhaps we should rename Erdogan's country "Vulture" rather than "Turkey", or perhaps Turkey Vulture. Of course such an occupation will also mean that Turkey Vulture may benefit financially in future by renting a gas pipeline corridor in Aleppo province to the highest bidder. No mention about that lucrative prospect from Turkey Vulture though, whose motives, so we are told, are purely altruistic, as is true for all Vultures.

Enter another player, Israel, into this sorry saga of greed. In December 2010 a gas field off the Levantine coast was discovered so massive that Israel called it "Leviathan". Whereas there is little risk of another country tapping into that field, there is a risk that either Qatari or Iranian gas piped through Syria to Europe will seriously undermine the price of gas exported to Western Europe. And what will be the natural market for gas from the Leviathan field? Why Western Europe of course. It is obvious that Israel will stand to benefit from ongoing chaos in Syria, chaos which will ensure that both Qatar and Iran cannot establish a pipeline to Europe, thus allowing Israel to develop its own Leviathan field for export to Europe at a premium price (expected start of production is 2017). America's failed agenda of "regime change" in Syria has resulted in nothing but chaos, however Israel is more than happy to support and maintain that chaos. Let us recall Netanyahu's squealing insistence that the US should bomb the crap out of Syria during his rabid rant to an insane Republican audience at the US congress in March last year. Who gives a shit about 23 million Syrian lives anyway if there is gas money to be made.

The gas story does not quite end there however. Get ready for an anticlimax. Only last year, an even larger offshore gas field, much bigger than Leviathan, possibly even larger than South Pars, was discovered off the coast of Egypt, the Zohr field 6. Due to Egypt's greater experience with the fossil fuel and gas industries, they have good prospects of fast tracking the gas production which will offer stiff competition with Israel's fledgling gas industry and severely blunt Israel's expected economic windfall. Oy vey, enough already!

CONCLUSION:

Any astronomer will tell you that to properly study the true nature of a star, it is necessary to examine it using all the different electromagnetic spectra available to us, whether radiowave, microwave, infrared, visible light, UV, Xrays or gamma rays. That is the best way for us to build up a comprehensive and accurate overall picture of that star. Furthermore it is necessary to eliminate or compensate for other factors which may distort or falsify our interpretation, such as atmospheric interference or doppler shifts or gravity distortions by dense bodies (eg black holes) which may bend the incoming electromagnetic beams.

Similarly in order to properly understand Syria, we must view the situation through all evidenced based lenses available to us, while simultaneously discarding bent and bogus paradigms fabricated by the Murdoch/mainstream media and their fee-for-opinion prostitute talking heads, even though they may hold "impeccable" ivy league "qualifications".

US and Australian rightwing nuts will undoubtedly accuse me of being a greenie commie freedom hating eco-terrorist. Anyone who has read my articles will know I strongly support open, liberal democratic processes which must be guided by evidence, reason and fairness with particular emphasis on transparency and accountability. I strongly support responsible free speech based on facts and reason. I strongly oppose irresponsible deceitful speech based on blatant lies such as Holocaust denial or global warming denial. Opposing and suppressing such deceitful Neonazi or Orwellian speech does NOT contradict the principle of free speech, it removes noise and promotes the process of constructive dialogue and the transmission of useful information. I strongly support the original stated ideals of America; the ideals of Abraham Lincoln, of Franklin Roosevelt and of Martin Luther King. I view Americans (or Australians or any other nationality) with similar values as my natural allies, my friends. The America of Lincoln, FDR and MLK that I admired, with all the promise it held, no longer exists. It has been replaced by a perverse mockery of what might have been. The beacon on the hill has been extinguished, not from without, but from within.

The voices of ordinary Syrian people have been drowned out in all these proceedings. We can only imagine what they must want, be they Sunni, Alawite, Christian, Druze, Yazidi or any other group. Is it so difficult to imagine that they simply want peace, security, shelter, food, clean water, education for their children, health care? That they simply want what we, in more stable societies take for granted? Simple human requirements that the so-called "leaders of the free world", through their despicable foreign policy, have deprived them of? The best thing the USA can do, to allow any prospect of any beneficial outcome for the Syrian people, is for the USA and its client states to fuck off.

G. Chia, October 2016

FOOTNOTES:

Posted in Geopolitics, Home | Tagged Energy, Oil, Syria, War | 4 Comments

Tiny House Chronicles: A Plumbing Polemic

Published July 15, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on July15, 2016

Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

The ongoing tiny house chronicles: A venturi exhaust system for the shower stall and solar hot water arrays incorporating a direct HWC

Geoffrey Chia, July 2016

VENTURI EXHAUST SYSTEM FOR THE SHOWER STALL:

I could not find any "off the shelf" exhaust fan models specifically designed to be located in a shower stall which operated on 12V or 24V DC.
A simple computer-type fan can certainly do the job, at least in the short term, and there are many of suitable size eg 12cm diameter, which can run on 24V DC diagram 1. However even if rated as "moisture resistant" they may not cope with sauna type humidity and are likely to fail prematurely. Even though they are quite cheap, the idea is to seek durable items and not be forced to keep replacing them. Furthermore heat loss from this open vent will be substantial, especially at night. A removable internal insulated cover can be added, however that will be another finicky add-on.

24V DC blower type ducted fans are easily available but are probably not suitable to be used "in-line" for air extraction. If embedded in the wall, due to the longer profile than a computer fan, it will stick out awkwardly. Even if mounted exteriorly and extracting air via a duct, it will be directly exposed to the sauna type moisture and may also fail prematurely, being made to do a job it was not designed to do. One way to ensure it has no contact with such moist air is to position the blower upstream of the shower exhaust port, to create a venturi effect to suck air out of the shower stall diagram 2. This will admittedly be an experimental system however I received no practical objections to the design from the intellectual resource folks I consulted (Doone W: scientist, engineer, geologist and homesteader, Lara N: architect, designer & builder, and Lara J: mathematics and physics expert). Any failure in execution of this system will of course be the fault of the author. This system will sacrifice some efficiency for better durability and longevity. If the external "inverted U" pipe or duct is well insulated, this configuration will help prevent heat loss because warm air from within the tiny house will tend to sit static in the top bend of the inverted U at night when the external atmosphere is cool (unless there are strong external breezes).

ADDITIONAL HOT WATER SYSTEM OPTIONS:

Roof mounted solar tube arrays utilising direct hot water cylinder (HWC) on loft floor

Designing a system in theory is one thing, but in practice we must always modify the design according to whatever components are available to us in the real world. I was offered false hope about obtaining a small indirect copper hot water cylinder by the false advertising of a UK vendor on eBay. Having now found the option of an affordable, small 50 litre simple direct HWC from an Australian vendor (diagram 3), this can be incorporated into the system and placed in the loft to increase the volume of hot water available and reduce concerns about inadequate pressure head for the taps. Unfortunately the roof mounted options require an additional small electric water pump and a small solar PV panel, however these are simple robust devices with good longevity. All these solar hot water system options remain free of dependence on microprocessors.

"Heat pipe core" type tubes (manifold on top of array) diagram 4

Caveats of this system: the manifold does NOT use glycol for heat exchange through internal copper coils in the HWC, water is circulated through a direct HWC. Hence it is NOT suitable for locations prone to substantial frost and subzero temperatures. However occasional ground frost should not be a problem as this should not affect the roof mounted system.

Pipes and Circulation:

All pipes are insulated except pipe 6, the overflow pipe from the header tank (which drains externally)

Each morning, water is actively pumped from the rainwater tank at ground level into the header tank (this inlet pipe is not shown in the diagram for simplicity). Water from the header tank passively flows down through wide calibre (DN32) pipe 1, through the low resistance valve, filling the loft HWC to the brim and also filling pipe 5 up to the same level as the water level in the header tank.
Water passively fills the electric pump which hence becomes primed. During the day when there is sunlight striking the PV panel, the pump drives water up pipe 2 and through the heated manifold into pipe 3. Note this manifold circuit will therefore automatically bleed air out by itself during initiation.
Pipe 3 joins pipe 1 but cannot backfill into the header tank due to the presence of the upstream valve in pipe 1. Water in pipe 3 is hence forced into the HWC. Water circulates continuously through this HWC/manifold circuit in the day, progressively heating up the water in the HWC but this flow ceases at night when there is insufficient light to power the solar PV panel.
Pipe 4 supplies the hot water taps. As water is extracted from this pipe it is replaced at the base of the HWC by cooler water from the header tank. At night there will be thermoseparation between the top hot layer of water and bottom cooler layer.
If the sunlight is too intense and the pump is working too fast, causing the loft HWC to overfill and overflow via pipe 5 into the header tank, then the flow rate from the pump must be dialed back with the potentiometer. The expectation is that the potentiometer will be set for the brightest summer day and thereafter be fixed in that setting and not need attending. The loft HWC cannot overpressurise or boil over because such pressurised water will spill over from pipe 5 into the header tank and be replaced by cold water via pipe 1. Water in the header tank does not overheat due to the large volume of water here. as well as the heat being radiated out of the steel walls of this uninsulated matt black header tank.
Over filling of the header tank in the morning is seen through the kitchen window as external spillage via pipe 6

"Hollow core" type tubes (small HWC on top of array) diagram 5

Pipes and Circulation:

All pipes are insulated except pipe 6, the overflow pipe from the header tank (which drains externally)

Each morning, water is actively pumped from the rainwater tank at ground level into the header tank (this inlet pipe is not shown in the diagram for simplicity). Water from the header tank passively flows down through pipe 1, through the low resistance valve, filling the 50 litre loft HWC to the brim.
Water passively fills the electric pump which hence becomes primed. During the day when there is sunlight striking the PV panel, the pump drives water up pipe 2 into the rooftop 30 litre HWC, filling it eventually to the outlet of pipe 3.
Pipe 3 joins pipe 1 and although the pressure head in pipe 3 is higher than pipe 1, water cannot backfill into the header tank due to the presence of the valve in pipe 1. Water in pipe 3 is hence forced into the 50 litre loft HWC. Water circulates continuously through this loft/rooftop circuit in the day, progressively heating up the water in both HWCs but this flow ceases at night when there is insufficient light to power the solar PV panel.
Pipe 4 supplies the hot water taps. As water is extracted from this pipe it is replaced at the base of the HWC by cooler water from the header tank via pipe 1. At night there will be thermoseparation in the loft HWC between the top hot layer of water and bottom cooler layer. There is no flow down pipe 3 at night.
There is normally free movement of air to and fro within pipe 5. The HWCs cannot overpressurise or boil over, because overpressurised vapour will exit pipe 5 (and will ultimately vent to the external air via pipe 6). If the sunlight is too intense and the pump is working too fast in the day, causing the rooftop HWC to overfill and overflow via pipe 5 into the header tank, then the flow rate from the pump must be dialed back with the potentiometer. The expectation is that the potentiometer will be set for the brightest, longest summer day and thereafter be fixed in that setting and not need attending. This overflow scenario is very unlikely if pipe 2 is narrow in calibre, thus limiting the inflow rate into the rooftop HWC, and pipe 3 is wide in calibre thus enhancing the outflow rate.
Over filling of the header tank in the morning is seen through the kitchen window as external spillage via pipe 6.

NOTES: in this system, the rooftop 30 litre HWC is treated as no different from a simple manifold. Hence the water in the rooftop HWC is "dead water" being generally unavailable for use*. Total available hot water remains 50 litres from the loft HWC only. The system will NOT work properly (for reasons too complicated to get into here) if water is pumped into the rooftop HWC at the level of pipe 3 connection and is drained from the base of the rooftop HWC at the level of pipe 2 connection.

*It will be possible however to manually harvest the hot water from the rooftop HWC at night from pipe 7 by opening the manual tap as indicated in the diagram. This tap in pipe 7 must be kept closed in the day for the system to function (otherwise water will merely circulate between pipe 2 and the loft HWC without going up through the solar array)

**Alternatively the connection in diagram 6 with an additional valve in pipe 4 should work well without the need for manual input. In this system, there will be an abrupt reduction of flow rate from a hot water tap when the rooftop HWC empties and the hot water then derives from the loft HWC. The disadvantage of this arrangement is that having a extra valve in pipe 4 can further reduce the forward flow rate from the loft HWC compared with diagram 5. To minimise this, it will be necessary for pipes 1 and 4 to be as wide as possible.

Thermosiphoning solar tube arrays utilising direct hot water cylinder (HWC) on loft floor

Whether or not the arrangements in diagrams 7 and 8 will work is unclear, because the basic direct HWC is not designed for thermosiphoning. Proper thermosiphoning cylinders have a convex top, in the centre of which is located the hot water outlet. Furthermore the connection ports are larger.

In diagram 8, air at the top of the 30 litre HWC may be an issue, however it should be possible to manually bleed most of this air out using the pressure release port at the top. I intend to give them a try.

Potential issue with all these systems: If the level of water in the header tank drops below the top level of the loft HWC, there will no longer be sufficient driving pressure to expel water from the latter. This can easily be resolved by refilling the header tank, a matter of turning on a switch.

G. Chia, July 2016

Posted in Home | Tagged Plumbing, Tiny Homes | Leave a comment

Open letter to Doctors for the Environment Australia

Published April 21, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on April 21, 2016

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

In the USA and especially Hollywood, "DEA" stands for drug enforcement agency and conjures up images of trigger happy feds in helmets and flak jackets carrying M16s. In my world, DEA stands for "Doctors for the Environment Australia" which conjures up images of kindly, well meaning physicians who unfortunately do not fully realise the enormity of the planetary predicaments we face, nor fully understand exactly what can and cannot be done about them.

Open letter to Doctors for the Environment Australia

Geoffrey Chia, MBBS, MRCP, FRACP. April 2016

Dear Colleagues,

I attended your DEA conference in Brisbane on 17 April 2016 as a non-member delegate. I agree with the broad philosophy of DEA, that failure to care for our environment is causing adverse public health consequences worldwide and we need to take appropriate action. Unfortunately that is about as far as it goes. I have utmost respect for you as fellow medical professionals, but I beg to differ with the DEA's official position regarding the current state of the planet and the actions we ought to take to reduce human suffering and death.

Although I am a Cardiologist, my real interests lie in scientific and ethical philosophy and how these can be applied to confer the greatest amount of good to the greatest number of people for the longest duration. I convened the group "Doctors and Scientists for Sustainability and Social Justice" from 2006 to 2013 during which we held monthly meetings at the S&N pathology boardrooms in Taringa and invited many speakers, all experts in their fields, to educate us on important environmental and social matters.

Here are my points of disagreement with DEA:

DEA's overall message is that climate change, although accelerating, is still fixable if we campaign hard enough for reform. Climate change is without doubt the gravest challenge facing humanity, but I must emphasise two points. Firstly, it is no longer fixable, it has spiralled out of control. The IPCC reports were all politically watered down deceit. A proper understanding of the paleoclimate record, self reinforcing feedback mechanisms and observation of the extreme events occurring year upon year, which will only get worse, demonstrate beyond any reasonable doubt that even if all anthropogenic carbon emissions were to cease today, worsening climate change is unstoppable. At least 4 degrees C eventual global average temperature rise is already locked in, which will mean the end of large scale agriculture and hence the end of civilisation. However in the long run there will probably be 8 to10 degrees rise, although the final equilibrium temperature may be slightly reduced by what we do now1. Secondly, climate change is not the most immediate issue.
DEA focus almost exclusively on climate change and pay little attention to other major issues which will cause the collapse of industrial civilisation and massive global human die-off much sooner: namely the impending implosion of the worldwide financial/economic system and, intimately related to that, resource depletion, principally petroleum depletion. Economic meltdown will lead to civil unrest and, depending on the country affected, either collapse of the State as a functioning entity or imposition of martial law by fascist governments, with loss of democratic freedoms. Either way, there will be loss of future options for those individuals who remain trapped in the belly of the beast (the crumbling cities). Competition for resources such as water and energy will trigger wars between nations, which will become more frequent, more barbaric and possibly even global. These views are entirely consistent with hard headed think tanks such as the Peak Oil task force group in the UK (a business group), the Pentagon and the German military. Anyone who still claims the invasion of Iraq by the Halliburton proxies in 2003 was about anything other than oil, is either a liar or a fool or both.
DEA offer nothing with regard to the practical measures which sapient people can and must take now to mitigate against the above.

I realise my views may be viscerally repugnant to you, indeed I experienced the same revulsion when I came to those conclusions in 2012, which led me to disband my D3SJ group in 2013. Nevertheless it is absolutely essential that we accept the evidence-based truth of a situation, no matter how horrific, so we can pursue the most effective actions, to enable the best (or least bad) outcome. With my deepening understanding of these worsening predicaments, my thinking over the years has shifted from global technological solutions (now impossible), to the mitigation of suffering and death for the majority of humanity (now also impossible), to at present, striving to avoid near term human extinction. Bitter experience has taught me it is a waste of time and energy to look to governments and corporations for solutions. They mouth meaningless green-wash platitudes and are in fact the cause of our problems. The only solutions forthcoming will be those which arise from our own individual actions.

Here is another stark reality you may find repugnant: it will not be possible to prevent the premature die-off of the majority of humanity.

This is the goal of most Australian medical practitioners today, myself included: we take whatever measures necessary to ensure our patients can live a good quality, "normal" duration of life of at least 85 years or so. In our wishful thinking, we would like to extend that goal to the other 7.5 billion people around the world. However, with the inevitable curtailment of fossil fuel energy2, it will not be possible to generate enough food, services and materials to comfortably support more than 500 million people worldwide, assuming a stable climate and a thriving ecosphere. Unfortunately, with worsening climate devastation and the sixth great global mass extinction well under way now, even 100 million survivors will be extremely unlikely. Such a view is entirely consistent with those held by top scientists including James Lovelock, many members of the Royal Society of London including former president Martin Rees and scientists who updated the original Limits to Growth models, in particular Ugo Bardi and Graham Turner. We may well face a "genetic bottleneck" with human numbers reduced to just a few thousand, confined to the deep South of the Southern hemisphere.

I do not accept that near term human extinction is certain. NTHE is not a guaranteed, forgone conclusion and I vehemently oppose those who ideologically adopt such a nihilistic position and promote defeatism. However irrefutable evidence forces me to accept that NTHE is a genuine possibility, indeed a significant probability if we take no action or waste time pursuing the wrong actions.

DEA may feel politically obliged to offer a positive, uplifting facade to their members and the public, however such a position is detrimental, indeed actively harmful, to anyone who follows your manifesto and your recommended course of action. Why? Because adoption of your current goals will cause your members to waste precious time, energy, resources and money pursuing useless activities based on delusional hopes. I am amply qualified to make that statement because I too have been guilty of such useless behaviour.

You will be familiar with the "golden hour" after a severe injury, when appropriate vigorous action taken by ambulance officers and A&E staff can make all the difference between life and death, between good quality survival and permanent disability. Correct, timely action makes all the difference.

Time is short. Right now we are reaching the end of our metaphorical "golden hour”. If we miss this vital window of opportunity, we stand to lose all future options. The impending collapse of numerous fraudulent schemes such as shale oil (which dwarf the previous sub-prime mortgage scam) means that we are on track to experience the next global financial meltdown soon, from which systemic recovery may be impossible. This may occur in a couple of years or even this year. Things may seem “fine” to you now, however things also seem “fine” to the passenger snoozing in the plush seat of an air-conditioned coach which is speeding towards the edge of a cliff.

What correct, timely action should we take? Exhaustive studies and practical experience from contributors to research bodies such as the Post Carbon Institute recommend we decentralise our lifestyles and become as self sufficient as possible. Here are some practical suggestions:

What to do: http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/01/20/doctors-scientists-for-sustainability-social-justice/

Where to go: http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2016/01/14/location-location-location/

One viable strategy: The off-grid Tiny House permaculture community:

http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

I am not advocating that you move immediately to a remote off-grid self-sufficient homestead, but I am advocating that you set up such a homestead immediately, which will then be ready for you to move to at short notice. Alternatively you can, right now, build a relationship with an established self-sufficient community, which you can then move to at short notice, provided you have useful skills to offer and you have pre-arranged your own accommodation.

We face unstoppable and unimaginably horrific events which will radically alter our world. Only radical adaptation will enable our survival. Nature dictates that failure to adapt will lead to extinction.

It is no coincidence that by making the radical lifestyle changes suggested above, you will also reduce your carbon and environmental footprint to essentially zero, which I believe is the ultimate goal of DEA. It is not appropriate for us to harangue others to abandon coal fired power unless we ourselves can show them how to live well without coal fired power. Talk is cheap but if we lead by example we are more likely to be taken seriously.

Footnotes:

David Wasdell's comprehensive explanation is probably the best one, available here: https://soundcloud.com/radioecoshock/facing-the-harsh-realities or here: http://www.apollo-gaia.org/ and independently vindicated here (transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh):

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-12/uoe-com120915.php

Current low oil prices are misleading. We are now experiencing the calm in of the eye of the storm, a storm which will shortly return to decimate the global economy. Please see: http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/11/16/peak-oil-revisited-part-1/

Posted in Environment, Home | Tagged Climate Change, Die Off, public health

Tiny House: Maximizing Solar Collection

Published April 1, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on April 1, 2016

Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

The ongoing Tiny House Design Chronicles: Maximising solar energy collection

Further thoughts about using the Header Tank as a source of thermal mass:

Here is a brief commentary expanding on the previously mentioned idea of using the water in the indoor header tank as thermal mass and how it can be optimally configured to collect solar heat. Further considerations:

As the header tank is located high within the house, any air that this tank heats up will stay high and will not heat the lower level, unless active mixing of the indoor air is enforced. This is simply done by turning on the ceiling fan.
Proper flow of air passing through the house is best achieved not by the fan, but by opening a low window (eg in the kitchen), to let cool air in; and by opening a high window (eg in the loft above the head of the bed), to let hot air out. On a hot summer day these windows (and others) will be kept wide open, but on a cold winter night all windows are likely to remain closed and the hot air in the loft can be allowed to accumulate for comfortable sleep. It is essential that the wood stove extracts oxygen from outside air and not from the air within the house.
For an optimal pressure head, the header tank should be positioned as high up as possible. The highest internal location for the tank will be up flush against the ceiling. In this configuration, the obvious location for the (double glazed) window to receive the sun's rays will be on the roof directly over the header tank*. Whereas at first glance this may seem like a good idea, it is actually not (see Figure 1). A roof window/skylight will optimally receive heat from an (almost) overhead sun, which will occur in summer. However the skylight will be inefficient at receiving the oblique rays from a winter sun. Accordingly this configuration may tend to overheat the house in summer and be poor at gathering solar heat in the winter. Hence my suggestion for optimal collection of solar heat for the header tank is shown in Figure 2 where an optimally angled reflective sill reflects light into the side window (North** facing) against which the tank is positioned.

Materials for the reflective sill: the most efficient reflective surface is of course a mirror, however glass can shatter with hail impact and mirrors are heavy, with sharp edges. A better and cheaper option may be mylar film glued onto (waterproofed) marine plywood.

*The considerations described in Figure 1 relate to a roof with a flat north-south axis or a skillion roof sloping down towards the sun-facing aspect and do not apply to a skillion roof sloping away from the sun. In the latter case the configuration in Figure 2 is the only sensible arrangement.

**South facing if you are in the Northern hemisphere

Maximising other solar energy collection systems:

The logical extrapolation of the idea of a reflective sill described above, can be extended to a reflective surface placed in front of your solar PV panels or solar evacuated tube array. This is relevant for steeply angled arrays optimised for the winter sun in high latitude locations (see Figures 3, 3a, 4 and 5) but does not apply to flush roof mounted arrays.

It is possible to estimate the extra solar energy collected by calculation, however the best method is to simply try these out using various different angles and measure the extra power output (either displayed on your battery charging monitor or measured with an ammeter).

Super duper ultimate solar energy collection:

Those with OCD may adopt the "frilled lizard" approach, emulating the reflective panels surrounding the front of solar ovens, to try to harvest even the weakest oblique rays of the rising and setting sun. For my part I think the configurations in Figures 2, 3 and 4 may be worth adopting but those in Figures 3a or 5 are impractical.

Conclusion:

Simply placing a (more or less) horizontal reflective surface in front of your header tank, solar PV panels or solar evacuated tube array can significantly augment your solar energy collection. This may not be relevant for warm, high insolation locations such as Queensland, Australia or Southern California or Arizona in the USA. However for those living at high latitudes, it can be important for harvesting the oblique rays of the sun during short winter days. Such a strategy may accrue (wild guess) perhaps 20% extra energy, using the dirt cheap accessory of mylar film on plywood. It will certainly be much simpler and cheaper than purchasing a 20% larger solar PV or solar evacuated tube array.

As mentioned in previous articles, "stick on" mylar film and plywood can be used to construct solar ovens, sea-water distillation boxes and "greenhouse" composting chambers (to accelerate the composting of toilet waste). Hence off-grid wannabes should think about putting aside a store of mylar film and marine ply for future use.

Posted in Home | Tagged Solar Heat, Sustainability, Tiny House | 1 Comment

Tiny House Electrics

Published February 20, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on February 20, 2016

Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

Electrical layout for a tiny house design

Geoffrey Chia February 2016

It no longer makes economic sense for a new house owner (who does not need airconditioning) to purchase their electricity from the ever more costly (and expensive to maintain) fixed grid. Not only have the prices of solar panels fallen dramatically, the costs of lithium battery arrays (large enough for household purposes) are also plunging as a result of several factors. Economists who cite this as a triumph of "free market forces" are, as usual, deceitfully distorting the truth to claim undeserved credit for their bogus field of pseudoscience. The huge price drop of solar PV panels over the past couple of decades was in fact due to the decision by the central communist party of China to massively ramp up PV manufacture in response to their problems of domestic pollution and their political intent to achieve worldwide industrial dominance in this field. Their increased output of high capacity lithium batteries (mainly for electric cars) was based on similar motivations. The much hyped but as yet unavailable "Tesla wall" battery has played no part in any of this so far.

In order to preserve the electrical grid and delay the demise of their (soon to be) stranded assets, the threatened "big electricity" vendors, in collusion with governments, are pursuing the following agenda, at least in Australia:

Firstly if you live in a metropolitan or urban zone, they have made it illegal for home owners not to connect to the electrical grid. They do not care whether you actually consume their electricity – their only interest is that you keep paying for grid upkeep and upgrades, whether this benefits the consumer or not. This is how the electricity vendors and local councils will ensure their ongoing income, in the new commercial environment where it will be cheaper and more sensible for the householder to go completely off grid. So much for the economists' so-called "free market", which is employing heavy handed edict to obstruct the consumers' option to go off grid.

Secondly TPTB are now introducing schemes by which they will lease high capacity lithium batteries to individual households which have solar PV. These households will then be able to export electricity back to the grid instantaneously on demand, even at night. Previously, the only electricity sources which could quickly respond to sudden additional grid demand were hydro and gas turbine generators. "Boiler" based coal fired generators are slow moving dinosaurs, only good for baseload.

Household lithium batteries are indeed a game changer and could lead to the creation of a proper "smart grid". With sufficient widely distributed lithium electrical storage, the fluctuating nature of renewable sources such as solar and wind will no longer be an issue. Renewables can then be ramped up rapidly and coal fired electricity can be well and truly killed off. If vested fossil fuel interests had not actively sabotaged such initiatives over the past few decades and if the system of smart grid + 100% renewable electricity had been implemented years ago, this could have made a real difference to staving off catastrophic climate change. Unfortunately it is now too late and climate change has spiralled out of control.

Notwithstanding the noble, albeit belated, goal of 100% renewable electricity, there are several factors which are likely to foil the realisation of this technically feasible smart grid. First is the problem of scaling up: we do not know if there are sufficient lithium salts worldwide which can be easily harvested for the production of lithium batteries on the scale intended. Second is the problem of funding: the fraudulent Ponzi stockmarket and overleveraged banks are now on the brink of collapse. When economic collapse does occur, there will be no capital or credit to fund anything (unless the BRICS countries can establish their own financial/banking system in time and drive this project themselves, completely sidelining the Industrial West). Third is the problem of energy constraints: we need fossil fuels and petroleum in particular to manufacture and distribute solar panels, wind turbines and lithium batteries. The ultimate hope would be that renewable energy can itself eventually be used to manufacture more renewable energy generators in the future – which is yet to be proven and highly doubtful. The current low price of oil hides the fact that we are fast falling down the precipice of high net energy conventional oil availability. Below the EROEI of 10:1, complex industrial activities can no longer take place and the establishment of centralised, gridbased 100% renewable energy will not occur. This dream would have been entirely feasible if it had been commenced, say, 10 years ago, but now seems almost impossible. The worst thing about the "big electricity" advocates is that they fail to adequately emphasize the importance of energy efficiency – they want consumers to continue being addicted to high consumption lifestyles which is the cornerstone of their business model and is in my view criminal.

I personally do not see any point opposing plans of "big electricity" because even though, in view of the constraints above, the prospect of centrally provided 100% renewable energy is now almost impossible, it is not absolutely impossible. I rate the chance of their future success around 0.1%. There is however a better, proven strategy with a 100% guaranteed likelihood of success which can be done right now. It is also suitable (in more modest iteration) for people in poorer countries who can technologically "leap frog"over being tied to the grid and proceed directly to electricity independence, just as they have leap frogged over the need for fixed telephone lines and proceeded directly to mobile smart phones.

For those who are willing and able, the only sensible plan at this time is to ruthlessly pursue energy efficiency and to establish your own completely off-grid domestic electrical system, which is in fact super easy to do. For some, this may involve the construction of a tiny house on wheels in the metropolitan area where you live, which in the first instance can be connected to the grid while the industrial system still functions. This house can be rapidly moved to a remote location when TSHTF and then happily switch to off grid mode. The low prices of electrical components and (semi) intact industrial economy at present mean that there is no better window of opportunity to grasp than right now.

The fact that items such as solar PV panels and LED lights can easily last more than 20 years means that you will continue to enjoy a high quality of life well after the rest of the world has descended into the stone age. Even conventional lead acid batteries can easily last 15 years if depth of discharge is kept minimal each cycle. Even if your batteries and inverter ultimately fail, with a DC system you can run your fridge directly off the solar PV panels during the day. "Eutectic" mixtures (eg concentrated brine – which has a freezing point well below zero degrees C, which is frozen during the day when the compressor is running), kept in containers in the freezer, can keep the night time unpowered fridge icy cold. Repositioning your fridge to a cool shaded location outdoors will increase its efficiency. A little bit of creativity can go a long way to maintaining a high level of comfort and convenience over a long duration.

As mentioned before the first three principles of electricity management are efficiency, efficiency, efficiency. Only after that should you consider the questions of solar PV panel and battery capacities.

ELECTRICAL LAYOUT for a tiny house design (please refer to the diagrams)

This is configured for a particular design: http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

I initially planned to have two lead acid battery arrays indoors, which I then changed to a single lithium array located in an outdoor shed (wired to an "electrical shelf" under the stairs). However in my final iteration I am opting for a single lithium array located under the front deck, wired to an "electrical shelf" in a nearby cupboard.

Whereas these days the risk of spontaneous combustion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is extremely low, it is still more prudent to store the batteries outdoors (furthermore the batteries also function more efficiently in a cooler, shaded, well ventilated outdoor environment).

Basic design:

Ground based solar panels feed wires to MPPT regulator (located under front deck) which feed the battery array (24V Lithium Iron Phosphate) which then send thick 24V DC cables into tiny house (location of electronic shelf has been changed from under stairs to top shelf of cupboard in updated diagram).

In tiny house, 24V DC bus (with fuses) feeds 24V wiring to DC appliances (fridge/freezer, ceiling fan, kitchen exhaust fan, shower exhaust fan, water pump), as well as various DC sockets which sit beside AC sockets

24V DC bus also feeds pure sine wave inverter which then goes to 240V AC panel with circuit breakers. This panel then feeds the washing machine and the AC sockets.

Safety cut off device is also incorporated.

The 240V AC panel can also be supplied directly by a mains electricity plug-in supply (switch toggles to either mains supply or battery supply from inverter)

*MPPT regulator and battery sit on heavy duty cargo trolley (with fireproof, waterproof covering) which can easily be wheeled in and out, from under the timber dec

APPLIANCES

WM = Washing machine

FF = Fridge/Freezer

SEF = Shower exhaust fan

TEF = Composting toilet exhaust fan (12V DC fan)

REF = Rangehood exhaust fan

WP = Water pump

Ceiling fan as labeled

LED strip lights:

These are all "warm white" and of the latest type where the light output is diffuse along the strip (not able to see focal bright points, unlike the old type)

1 = On ceiling, illuminates both staircase and head of loft bedroom

2 = On ceiling, illuminates both foot of loft bedroom and West end of lounge

3 = Above windows, under shelf

4 = Above windows, under shelf

5 = Weatherproof outdoor LED striplight above panoramic door / window

6 = Above kitchen counter at junction of wall and ceiling

7 = three small strip lights on underside of cross beams

8 = At top edge of mirror cabinet

LOCATION OF SWITCHES (red letters A, B & C):

Switchpanel A is located on the wall above the kitchen counter here and has switches which control lights 1 and 7, and another switch for the water pump
Lights 6 and 8 have their switches immediately adjacent to them
Switchpanel B is located on the side of this storage cupboard around chest height and has five switches which control lights 2, 3, 4 and 5 + ceiling fan
Switchpanel C is located at loft entrance, on the side of the headboard cupboard, situated low down near the loft floor and has two switches which control lights 1 and 2
Switches for exhaust fans (in showerstall or rangehood) are next to / on those appliances.
Exhaust fan for composting toilet has no switch, it is merely unplugged

Please note: light 1 can be turned on and off from BOTH switchpanel A or C

light 2 can be turned on and off from BOTH switchpanel B or C

LOCATION OF SOCKETS:

Loft bedroom sockets are located on the wall as indicated, just above height of headboard
Kitchen sockets are above level of kitchen counter (just under cabinet)
Indoor lounge sockets are located in wall about 10cm above floor
Outdoor sockets are low and towards eastern edge, out of swing radius of opening lounge door

There is great pressure from the commercial sector these days to force you to wire your offgrid dwelling with an AC system only (whether 240V 50Hz as in Oz or 110V 60Hz as in the US). This is certainly the easiest option – it is what conventional electricians are familiar with and are comfortable with. However it means your entire electrical system will be completely dependent on the flawless performance of one single device which must be constantly kept running 24/7: the DC to AC inverter. Even though inverters are cheaper and more reliable these days and it is not difficult to purchase a spare, for many other reasons my preference is to have dual wiring (240V AC and 24V DC) and to run the frequently used appliances (LED lights, fridge, fans) on 24V DC. As such, the inverter will only need to run intermittently for devices such as the washing machine, thus vastly prolonging the inverter's lifespan. Furthermore if you lose the function of the washing machine it is not the end of the world – a toilet plunger and bucket can work just as well (the main hassle being wringing out the clothes).

Supplemental charging after many overcast days can be devised according to your particular circumstances, whether by wind microturbine, pumped water storage with microhydro, or even by diesel generator while fossil fuels are still available.

The keys to the longevity of any system are reliability, durability, simple design (minimising the number of potential points of failure) and redundancy. These principles have been illustrated in both my plumbing and electrical layouts. If the tiny houses in your community are designed to utilise standardised components (whether they be evacuated solar hot water tubes or MPPT chargers or 24V DC devices etc), if you purchase numerous spare parts a priori and if you have the expertise within your group to perform regular maintenance and repairs (ideally the folks who built those tiny houses should live within your community), you will create a robust and resilient situation which will enable your comfortable lifestyles to be maintained for two or more decades after the collapse of centralised services. Furthermore in the post collapse situation, the salvage economy will become vitally important. The restoration or repurposing or cannibalisation for spare parts from old devices (whiteware, electronic goods etc) will enable those with a practical inventive streak to breathe new life into what we nowadays regard as discarded junk. For example, the electric motor of an old washing machine can be repurposed to become an electricity generator powered by stationary bicycle, enabling supplemental charging of your batteries while simultaneously providing you with healthy exercise.

GC Feb 2016

ADDENDUM: UPDATE ON HOT WATER PLUMBING

For thermosiphoning to work properly, it is important to purchase an indirect hot water cylinder with a large calibre internal heat exchange coil which has been purpose designed for this function. One example is the AGA cylinder from www.gasapplianceguide.co.uk Copper cylinders are not prone to electrolytic corrosion, hence there will be no need for a magnesium anode. Obviously if you are not prone to frost then the way to go is with a direct cylinder which makes things simpler and cheaper.

The simplest way to deal with excessive heating of the hot water, causing overflow, is according to this diagram:

The signal that overheating is occurring will be water spilling out of the external overflow pipe from the header tank, which will be visible from both within the house (through the end window) as well as from the outside if you are working in the field. The response to this will be to simply cover the evacuated solar tube array. Regular overheating of the water in the hot water tank will in fact be desirable, to kill off any prospect of harbouring Legionella.

Posted in Home | Tagged Electricity, Photovoltaic, Renewables, Soalr, Tiny House | 4 Comments

Mini Wood Stoves

Published January 29, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 29, 2016

Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

It's not Rocket Surgery: choosing an indoor mini wood stove

Geoffrey Chia, Jan/Feb 2016

As of 25 January 2016 at the time of commencement of writing this article, the cold spell affecting East Asia killed more than 65 people in the subtropical island of Taiwan. The temperature in Beijing dropped as low as minus 40 degrees C, however Northern China is used to dealing with heavy snow dumps and subzero temperatures in winter and hence coped better compared with Taiwan. The last time snow was seen in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, was more than a century ago. The fact that Taiwan is a relatively small subtropical island, which we would expect to be dominated by the moderating effect of the South China Sea, makes this rare event seemingly even more bizarre. That is, until you understand the physics of how coastal and island provinces on the leeward (downwind) side of continents can often be dominated by continental rather than maritime weather, which I mentioned in my previous article "Location, location, location", where I compared Vancouver Island with Nova Scotia.

It is no coincidence that a record breaking monumental snowstorm also affected the East coast of the USA, the leeward side of the North American continent, at the same time as the cold weather affected East Asia. In general, at those latitudes; the windward (Western) sides of the continents, which are more dominated by maritime influences, are less prone to extremes of heat and cold than the Eastern sides.

Climate scientists tell us the peculiar combination nowadays during Northern winters of high temperatures in the Arctic regions and low temperatures extending to low latitudes, is due to the disruption of the circumpolar jet stream as a consequence of climate change.

One issue I did not mention in my "Location" article was the beneficial warming effect of the Gulf Stream on North Western Europe. The demise of the Gulf Stream appears to be a foregone conclusion as climate change progresses, following which North Western Europe can expect even worse cold spells in winter, even as the rest of the world heats up.

My "Location" article focused on avoiding heatwaves and managing fresh water supply. It did not discuss coping with cold weather (which well prepared humans can survive better than heatwaves). In choosing our future location, it is far better to settle where there will be low risk of heatwaves (despite the occasional cold snaps), rather than to settle where there will be low risk of cold snaps (but have high risk of terrible summer heatwaves). Most locations in our future world will face the latter situation in due course.

This article will focus on one item which can keep you comfortable in cold weather, especially when faced with the inevitable fossil fuel shortages in the near future: the indoor wood heater/stove, with special attention to the secondary combustion biomass (SCBM) heater/stove. It is not a comprehensive article but will concentrate on models which can be used in a caravan or tiny house, my particular area of interest.

The other important role of this biomass heater/stove will of course be for cooking. It will become an essential appliance when we face future shortages of kerosene and LPG.

Before we proceed, it is vital to mention the first three principles in dealing with cold weather: insulation, insulation, insulation (just as the first three principles in managing electricity use are efficiency, efficiency, efficiency). The well insulated tiny house, warmed by two people and a dog, may not require any additional heating because of the small interior volume of air.

Furthermore, in my particular tiny house design http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house, I incorporated an indoor steel water tank (under the lounge seats) which will provide thermal mass superior to (and lighter than) concrete.

Good insulation, small interior volume and thermal mass (heated by daytime passive solar influx) alone may enable you to go without active heating for most of the year, depending on where you live.

On the other hand, for adequate ventilation and to avoid condensation, it is necessary to allow some fresh (cold) air in and stale (warm) air out of the tiny house. In the case of the hermetically sealed modern Scandinavian dwelling, this is achieved (with minimal temperature drop) by a heat recovery ventilation system. For a less airtight dwelling in a less cold climate, sufficient ventilation may occur through "natural" leaks in your house (eg air coming in via the gap under the front door and out via a poorly sealed upper window), which will of course cause a drop in internal temperature. If you are installing a wood stove in your tiny house for future cooking anyway, this stove can double up as your heater and there will be no need for an electrically powered heat recovery ventilator. In this article I use the terms biomass and wood interchangeably, because 99.9% of the time, most of us use wood for our (non fossil fuel) stoves.

My criteria for the ideal biomass stove / heater for a tiny house are as follows:

Must have exhaust flue / chimney – absolutely essential requirement
Minimum use of fuel
Minimum emissions
Small and light
Little need for constant tending
Ability to monitor fuel and flame
Able to source air intake from exterior
Affordability
Other issues eg aesthetics

Criteria 2 and 3 can be summed up in one word: efficiency. The least efficient, most hazardous, most polluting and most wasteful heat source is an open fire. Next worst is the open brick fireplace. The standard cast-iron combustion box with flue is a good deal better but still woefully inefficient. Furthermore even a "small" cast-iron stove can easily weigh 150kg, which is quite unsuitable for a tiny house on wheels.

Even though the technology has been around for decades, we have failed to widely embrace the secondary combustion biomass (SCBM) stove, of which the "rocket stove" is the commonest design. Standard fires only burn the primary solid material of the biomass, releasing secondary combustible materials such as soot, hydrocarbon gases and carbon monoxide into the atmosphere, which can cause acute irritation of the airways and eyes, even poisoning or asphyxiation. If inhaled chronically over decades it can lead to emphysema and even lung cancer. These remain terrible problems in Third World countries. A stove designed to burn both primary biomass as well as the secondary emissions is far more efficient, causes far less pollution and is thus far healthier than traditional wood stoves. It needs far less fuel to do the same work (eg just a quarter of the wood normally used for a conventional stove), hence requires less back breaking physical effort chopping and carrying wood, hence also protects against deforestation. Additionally such a stove can reach much hotter temperatures. There have been great initiatives to introduce SCBM stoves (such as the InStove) for use in the developing world, if only for health reasons.

If you google "rocket stove", the vast majority you find will be solely for outdoor use and will lack exhaust flues. Even those with exhaust flues may not be certified for indoor use (the commercial forces of our fossil fuel economy have long suppressed this market). Hence most "permies" these days are pioneering this option without official sanction.

Development of the "rocket mass heater" actually preceded invention of the rocket stove. This mass heater is a different beast, in that the hot metal components are enveloped in big heavy slabs of cob (or similar earthen or concreted thermal mass) to retain the heat for slow and steady release even after the fire goes out. The cob can be shaped in the form a comfortable warm bench. If used indoors, this mass heater is only suitable for a large, fixed, ground based dwelling, not a tiny home on wheels. Furthermore many rocket mass heaters may not incorporate a stove in their design.

With regard to SCBM stoves with exhaust flues/chimneys (which may or may not have been officially approved for indoor use) my websearches revealed the following types:

WEBSITE	http://www.instove.org/60-100-liter-cookstove	http://www.rocketheater.com/	http://www.bobcatrocketstove.com/ Unfortunately no longer in production
Size and weight	Probably too big for most boats/caravans	Probably too big for most boats/caravans	Small (perhaps too small) and light
Need for constant tending	+++ horizontal fuel port needs constant feeding	++ vertical fuel port, wood self feeds by gravity as it burns down	+++ small horizontal firebox needs regular feeding
Ease to monitor flame and fuel	Easy	Easy	Need to open door periodically
Ability to source external air intake	Maybe, but need to custom configure	No	?probably yes
Cost in US dollars	$850 for 60litre, $995 for 100litre	?$1500 (contact dealer)	Unavailable (?previously $400)
Remarks	Mainly designed as a stove to cook for large numbers of people, cooking slots only fit custom sized pots	Mainly designed as a heater. Sides of secondary combustion chamber can get very hot & pose risk of burns	Add-on small water tank can provide thermal mass and hot water supply
Aesthetics	Utilitarian	Industrial	Odd looking, may appeal to some

————–

WEBSITE	Silverfire Hunter Stove	Kimberley Stove/Heater
Size and weight	http://www.silverfire.us/hunter-chimney-gasifier-stove	https://www.unforgettablefirellc.com/
Need for constant tending	Small and light	Ideal size for boat/caravan
Ease to monitor flame and fuel	++ "batch feed" wood vertically	can burn slowly overnight without tending
Ability to source external air intake	Need to remove pot to view status of wood and flame	The only SCBM stove with viewing window
Cost in US dollars	No	Yes
Remarks	$220.00	$3750 – 3995
Aesthetics	When starting, large flames with smoke leap out of central combustion chamber. Pots and pans get coated with soot from primary combustion	By far the most expensive but also the best made
	Looks like a biscuit tin	Classy

The above are mere impressions obtained from web searches, not based on any practical experiences of mine. Practical reviews from the manufacturers and customers can be found from amazon.com or youtube. This article is intended to spark (pun intended) interest in this topic so that the reader can do their own research and make their own decisions. One issue I have not yet looked into is the maintenance required for each stove type. Every setup will require periodic cleaning of the chimney.

Based on size and availability, the only two SCBM contenders for use in a tiny house on wheels are the Silverfire Hunter and the Kimberley stoves. Although the Kimberley is far superior in every way it is also hugely more expensive, however you generally get what you pay for. It is false economy to buy a cheap stove if your house ends up burning down.

The Silverfire Hunter is described as a "toplift updraft" or TLUD gasifier. It generates bare flames and smoke out of the central cavity at startup (secondary combustion occurs later in a ring around this). This issue may be a dealbreaker for the indoor user. During cooking, the base of the pot/pan is in direct contact with the primary flame, causing soot deposition. An optional cast iron disc cover is available to minimise this, although it will also reduce heat transfer. One reviewer wrote that it needs frequent ash removal which requires it be disconnected from the flue, taken outdoors and turned upside down.

For those still keen on mini wood stoves of standard design, the following review websites are helpful:

http://www.tinywoodstove.com/small-stove-reviews/

http://www.waldeneffect.org/blog/Smallest_wood_stoves/

As mentioned previously a small standard cast iron stove can easily weigh 150kg, however the tiniest models may weigh less than 25kg.

For tiny house purposes, two particular models seem especially suitable (mainly because I greatly value the ability to source external air intake):

Jotul 602: apparently more than a million of these have been made, hence one would expect all the bugs have been ironed out by now. H25.25” x W12.6” x D21.25” , costs around $900. Weighs 73kg, able to configure for external air intake. Apparently 75% efficient (?capable of some secondary combustion)

The Salamander Hobbit stove: http://salamanderstoves.com/the-hobbit-stove/

Size: 302mm wide, 272mm deep and 465mm high, the low emission version costs £525 pounds sterling.

Weighs 60kg, able to configure for external air intake. It is designed to enable some secondary combustion, although not as efficient as the purpose designed SCBM stoves.

CONCLUSION:

As in all things, your choice will depend on how you weigh up the various advantages versus disadvantages, as well as your individual circumstances. Many amateurs have cobbled together home-made rocket stoves for outdoor use, however few sane people will hazard home-made stoves for indoor use.

G. Chia Jan/Feb 2016

Posted in Home | Tagged Climate Change, Heat, Tiny Homes, Wood Stoves | 2 Comments

PEAK OIL REVISITED PART 1

Published November 16, 2015 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Charting by Steve Ludlum

Published on the Doomstead Diner on November 14, 2015

Triangle of Doom from Steve Ludlum at Economic Undertow

Discuss this article at the Energy Table inside the Diner

PEAK OIL REVISITED PART 1a: The Triangle of Doom and the Failure of Price as a Metric

Geoffrey Chia is an Australian physician with a long standing interest in Peak Oil. This essay on oil prices is a necessary prelude to Peak Oil Revisited Part 1b: Is an International Standardised Energy Dollar feasible? followed by Peak Oil Revisited Part 2: Why business as usual guarantees that global industrial collapse will be complete by 2030.

Is Peak Oil dead?

Quote: “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” – attributed to Samuel Clemens AKA Mark Twain, upon reading his own obituary in a newspaper

The delusionists who declared that the “theory” of Peak Oil is dead are simply demonstrating their profound ignorance, if not downright duplicity. Peak Oil is not a theory, it is an observation of a physical fact. It is a simple fact that this world has finite supplies of oil. It is a simple fact that every oil well has finite recoverable oil and will go through phases of rising production, peaking of production and terminal decline. Peak Oil refers to (and has always referred to) the maximum rate of production of conventional oil (applied in particular contexts to either a well, a field, a country or the entire world). Global conventional oil output hit a plateau around 2006 and is now on an inexorable downward trend and even the cornucopian EIA admit this.

Fudging current data by adding gas condensates (which cannot be used to derive diesel or kerosene) or other unconventional oils to the total liquid hydrocarbon output does not change the fact that the world is now well past the peak rate of production of conventional oil and we are entering terminal decline soon.

As an alternative tactic, the denialists have tried to change the definition of Peak Oil. They declared that since oil prices are now low, we cannot have gone past Peak Oil, which has therefore been disproved. They ignore the fact that Peak Oil is and was always defined as the peaking of the rate of production of conventional oil i.e. the maximum volume output per unit time (usually over a year) and was not and was never defined by price.

The triangle of doom

As many readers will be aware, Steve Ludlum's triangle of doom http://www.economic-undertow.com/ refers to the post Peak Oil fluctuation of oil prices, which as time goes by is hypothetically expected to converge to a particular oil price (of say, US$100/- per barrel), above which customers cannot afford the oil, and below which it is uneconomic for vendors to produce the oil (they cannot recuperate their investment costs). In other words, oil which is too expensive leads to destruction of demand (or "demand destruction") and oil which is too cheap leads to destruction of production (or "production destruction"). If $100 per barrel oil is too much for customers to afford but is also too low to meet the cost of production, then in theory, market forces dictate that both oil consumption and production will cease, petroleum will no longer be available and industrial civilisation will collapse. One projection suggested this convergence would occur sometime in 2015 (see graph) however this has obviously not happened for a few reasons:

Firstly, not all oils are the same. Current low oil prices are certainly accelerating "production destruction" of expensive low EROEI oil. However, as long as substantial cheap-to-produce high EROEI oils remain, the latter will continue to supply the market until that high net energy source (Hi-NES) itself eventually transforms into Lo-NES (see explanation below).

Secondly, we have a fair way to go before all discretionary (or non-essential) oil consumption is eliminated from our bloated and wasteful system. Once that occurs, we are in for big trouble.

Furthermore, price is not an accurate predictor of collapse of the oil industry because it is not a reliable marker of whether, where, when and how oil will be produced or consumed, as price can be grossly distorted and manipulated by non-market forces to create perverse incentives.

In the longer term, price as a number is meaningless, unless corrected for inflation/deflation and related to a reference date, or related to a standard basket of goods and services.

The major concern about the current low oil price is that it is strangling upstream funding for oil production in the near future (even for conventional wells) which will eventually cause severe supply constraints in the near term. This will undoubtedly cause another oil price spike and even though restoration of production will take time and effort, it will eventually be done, albeit not to the same previous level. Petroleum will still continue to be produced and consumed in a fluctuating manner, irrespective of the hypothetical triangle of doom, until we run out of easy oil. Going by current trends however, oil will become completely unavailable to the vast majority of humanity within 15 years according to analysis of other parameters (not price) which we will discuss in part 2.

Production issues: Easy and Difficult oil:
The monetary price of a barrel of crude (whether WTI, Brent or Tapis) depends on a large number of factors which may partly be related to genuine physical and chemical issues (eg ease of extraction, ease of refinement) and partly related to genuine supply and demand issues. However price is also prone to all sorts of political and fraudulent distortions and manipulations. Consequently, the adjectives “cheap” and “expensive” are unhelpful and inaccurate, indeed they can lead to great confusion.

Whereas demand destruction in recent times has led to a fall in global oil prices1 , another major contributing factor was the US instructing their proxy Saudi Arabia to maintain maximum oil production2 regardless of reduced global demand, in an aggressive act of predatory pricing which is damaging the economies of Russia and Iran (who face higher production costs than the Saudis). Furthermore unconventional oil producers have been forced to sell at prices below their production costs, accelerating their demise (which was inevitable anyway), to the delight of the Saudis. This “expensive” oil is being sold artificially cheaply, hence the adjectives “expensive” and “cheap” have lost all meaning.

I propose we instead use the terms “easy” and “difficult” oil instead, the difference between them being the ENERGY costs of extracting and processing these types of oil.

Hence easy oil refers to oil from a conventional field of light sweet crude before (and shortly after) production peaks (when EROEI is high). Ultimately this easy oil will become progressively more difficult to extract (because oil extraction from a depleting well requires ever more energy). Even the Peak Oil deniers concede that the days of easy oil are over, however they refuse to acknowledge the underlying reason for this.

Difficult oil refers to low net energy or low EROEI oil, either:

– Unconventional oil of any sort (tar sands, ultra-deep oceanic oil, shale oil, Fischer-Tropf oil, biofuels etc.) or

– Conventional oil from a depleting field well past peak production.

Please note that the terms Easy oil and High EROEI oil are interchangeable, as are the terms Difficult oil and Low EROEI oil. However the adjectives “easy” and “difficult” are simpler and more intuitive to adopt and less of a mouthful.

My term “Hi-NES” is a general term for a high net energy source (or sources). Hi-NES embraces high EROEI conventional oil, high EROEI conventional natural gas and other high EROEI sources. In theory, wind generated electricity in a location where the wind blows strongly and continuously (e.g. the Antarctic coast) may offer an EROEI of more than 10:1 and is therefore potentially a hi-NES. However in practice that is seldom achievable.

The term Conventional oil (i.e. petroleum derived from a conventional oilfield) is not necessarily interchangeable with Easy oil for reasons explained above.

Use of the terms “easy” and “difficult”, rather than “cheap” and “expensive” helps to clarify our thought processes, but remains inadequate to enable deeper understanding of what is happening. Orwell, through the voice of Napoleon the pig, famously said that all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Accordingly we must appreciate that among difficult oils, some are more difficult than others, which is related to their EROEI. Similarly, among easy oils, some are easier than others, which is also related to their EROEI. Here is an example: Saudi Arabia and Russia as nations are both past Peak Oil, but Russia is further down the curve. Nevertheless both can still be said to possess easy oil, the difference being that the EROEI for Saudi Arabia may be (for example) 20:1 but the EROEI for Russia may be (for example) 18:1. This difference means that Saudi production costs are cheaper than Russia and enables the Saudis to engage in short term predatory pricing which causes trouble for the Russian economy.

The astute reader will naturally ask this question: what is the numerical dividing line between easy/high EROEI oils and difficult/low EROEI oils? We need to invoke the thoughts of Hall, Lambert and Murphy to help us answer this question in Part 2.

Consumption issues: demand destruction:

The confusing terms “cheap” and “expensive” oil will unfortunately continue to be used in common parlance. Most people will continue to focus on price as it can be a useful comparator when considering short term trends.

However even if we were to focus microscopically on just one household budget, price is not the important consideration, it is affordability. Affordability is related to one's income balanced against one's expenditure. Expenditure can be divided into discretionary or non-essential spending (which defines one's disposable income) and non-discretionary or essential spending (food, housing, utilities, transport for work/study, health expenses etc).

Similarly we can adopt the concept of discretionary and non-discretionary petroleum use. Discretionary use refers to frivolous or non-essential consumption of petroleum e.g. jet travel for overseas holidays, running a power boat on weekends etc. Non-discretionary use refers to essential use.

Let us take the example of a tradesman who must drive his pick-up truck (containing his heavy power tools, ladders, trestles, materials etc.) to his clients' locations to perform his work (he cannot use a bicycle or public transport for this purpose). Let us say he is just making ends meet. If two thirds of his petroleum use is discretionary and one third non-discretionary, then when faced with oil escalating in price from, say, $33 per barrel to $100 per barrel, he can initially cope by eliminating 2/3 of his total consumption to keep his petrol bill unchanged. If however the price then exceeds $100 per barrel, he cannot now afford to run his vehicle for work. Continuing work will mean he loses money. After losing money for a few months he is forced to stop work, sell his pick-up (then uses that capital to pay debts incurred when he lost money and for ongoing living expenses) and he drops out of the oil market completely. The latter represents demand destruction. Loss of his job releases the oil he previously consumed into the market. Widespread demand destruction in the general population "frees up" considerable oil supply into the market. Overall oil supply now exceeds demand and leads to a drop in the oil price. However the former tradesman cannot now afford to buy another vehicle to resume his old work. He cannot consume oil again as he did previously and the market price of oil stays low for the time being. Repeat this poor tradesman's story a million fold and you will get an idea of how depletion of the easy (high EROEI) oil will lead to the impoverishment of nations and why low oil prices will not necessarily reinvigorate economic activity3.

Eventually all discretionary oil use will be eliminated from all sectors of all economies, all around the world. All the fat will be cut from the system, leaving only absolutely essential oil use remaining (e.g. petroleum to run ambulances, to produce and distribute food etc.). Demand is now inflexible. As global conventional oil depletes further, oil supply will once again fall behind this fixed, inflexible demand and the oil price will escalate. Hyperinflation will now ensue. This will be the terminal phase of the industrial economy.

Prospects for future resurrection of low EROEI oil production:

The first flurry of low net energy oil production is all but over now. Many ultra deep water projects were shelved after Macondo blew up. The US tight oil producers in particular are now collapsing in droves, their investors, AKA suckers, are losing their shirts. Shell has pulled out of investing in Canadian tar sands. Other potential start-up low EROEI projects are being suppressed by the current low oil price as they need a price of at least $60 (more like $80 to $100) per barrel to get off the ground (price of WTI at the time this article is written is around $44 per barrel)

However in the future, after the eventual elimination of discretionary oil use from the global economy and with subsequent permanent escalation of oil prices, will low EROEI projects be attempted once again? It has been calculated that an EROEI of around 10:1 is required to run basic industrial civilisation and when EROEI drops under 5:1 our net energy availability falls off a cliff4, hence physical laws dictate that very low EROEI projects (especially unconventional oil projects which tend to have an EROEI of 3:1 or less) are for practical purposes useless (not to mention extremely harmful to the environment) and are extremely stupid. For Ponzi purposes however, lo-NES projects are useful scams for fraudsters to promote. We can never underestimate the stupidity of human beings. Hence it seems likely that stupid ~~fucking~~ fracking projects in new locations and other lo-NES projects will arise again, zombie-like in the future, funded by yet another cohort of greedy suckers with goldfish memories.

The failure of price as a metric:

You will note that the idea of the "triangle of doom" alluded to the post Peak oscillating price of oil (as a result of fluctuating supply and demand) which would progressively diminish in amplitude and eventually converge to the point where demand destruction meets production destruction, then the whole oil industry would vanish in a puff of smoke (at least in theory). Price on its own however can be extremely rubbery and is prone to all sorts of manipulation (e.g. inappropriate government subsidies for biofuels from grain) and distortion (e.g. speculation by futures traders). Hence oil prices consistently above $100 per barrel may still be possible in the future, particularly if there is government subsidy (AKA misappropriation of taxpayers money) to favour certain sectors. Expensive oil will not be affordable to all, but it will be affordable to a chosen few, enabling some (albeit diminished) part of the oil production system to continue functioning.

Prices in theory should reflect the simple interaction between supply and demand. Prices in a sane and rational market should be an honest representation of true cost and true value. Proper pricing should stimulate healthy (as opposed to harmful) economic activities. However in reality our markets are insane, irrational and dishonest. In reality prices are frequently distorted by TPTB to create perverse stimuli in the service of vested interests eg the fossil fuel industry or the corn lobby, irrespective of harm caused to ordinary people or the environment. Furthermore price comparisons between different years require corrections for inflationary or deflationary trends. Price as a number is an extremely noisy signal and interpreting circumstances or trends according to price is prone to all sorts of pitfalls.

Forces other than a "sane" market will guarantee future delivery of oil to certain favoured sectors, come hell or high water. The American military is one such sector, and the production and supply of oil to them will be given priority over, say, the allocation of petroleum to produce food for the poor5.This will be one way by which the US military will promote general population die-off, apart from the fact that they will kill poor people directly. When chaos on the streets ensues as a result of the limits to growth, the National Guard will be called in and will start shooting people.

Here is another reason why price, as a number, is essentially meaningless and must be related to some other objective index: any sum of money, say $100, must be related to the goods and services it can buy at that time. We know that $100 could go a lot further a hundred years ago than $100 today because of inflation, which is defined as the expansion of money supply relative to the available pool of goods and services. Accordingly if there is contraction of money supply in the future due to collapse of yet more debt bubbles, deflation will occur and $100 in that future will buy more than the $100 of today (at least until the pool of goods and services also contracts, which will lag behind the money supply contraction). In other words, quoted price must be referenced to a particular year (e.g. 2015) and price must always be corrected for purchasing power (i.e. corrected for inflation or deflation) to have any meaning.

Perhaps a better way to ascribe objective meaning to price is to relate it to a standard basket of goods and services. To simplify things further, the Economist magazine, originally as a joke, decided to relate price to one particular standardised product, the MacDonald's Big Mac burger, which is made to identical specifications in almost all locations around the world (although in India beef is not used). This was in fact found to be a useful means of comparing the true values of different currencies, such that the Economist now publishes its "Big Mac index" twice a year.

The "triangle of doom", being based on price (a variable which can be immensely rubbery), is not an accurate predictor for the global collapse of the oil industry although it does highlight industry difficulties. It was nevertheless an interesting concept because low oil prices can certainly destroy production in many (but not all) instances and high oil prices can certainly destroy demand in many (but not all) instances, however we must also take many other factors into consideration.

Energy as the “gold standard” for money

I previously wrote that money represents the promise of delivery of future useful goods and services. However FUGS can only be created and delivered through the application of energy. I also previously wrote that if Greece had their own hi-NES (such as a Leviathan gas field), they would have no problem leaving the Eurozone to print their own Drachma, which would then be backed up by their hi-NES.

Can we thus say that money is a proxy for energy? Well, yes and no. It is probably too simplistic a paradigm. If money was a true proxy for energy then net oil importing countries with low oil reserves such as the USA should have low currency values, and net oil exporting countries with high oil reserves such as Russia should have high currency values, however in real life the opposite is the case, for many economic and political reasons. Furthermore, it is impossible to accurately value a particular country's currency against its national energy reserves because it may be impossible to accurately estimate the recoverable energy reserves, which may be wrongly declared by that country for various economic and political reasons. For example we know the sudden escalation (on paper) of purported oil reserves in the OPEC countries in the 1980s had nothing to do with discovery of new oil resources but had everything to do with their greed (it was prompted by the then new OPEC oil exporting policy based on stated reserves).

Despite those shortcomings, will it still be worthwhile to use energy as the standard index for money? Should energy be the "gold standard" for money and not gold?

One may argue that this has already been attempted in the form of the US Petrodollar, which from the point of view of the USA has been a massive economic windfall, but from the point of view of the rest of the world has enabled America to become a global parasite, to leech oil and high value products from other countries for free. The Petrodollar scheme has also incentivised the US to keep the Middle East politically unstable, in order to perpetuate this military protection racket. The explanation for this has been previously detailed in this essay:

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/08/14/how-the-world-works-part-ii/

As a thought experiment however, can we conceive of a global system in which we index money to energy in a more objective fashion? When all its ramifications are explored, such a system seems unlikely to be workable in practice. Even if potentially feasible however, it will almost certainly be sabotaged and violently opposed by the USA as it will threaten their Petrodollar status. (see Part 1b which discusses the ISED, to follow soon).

The Ehrlich-Simon wager:

On a slight tangent, let us briefly mention the famous bet in 1980 between the environmentalist Paul Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon regarding the future prices of five selected minerals. After ten years it was found that all the prices had fallen, hence Simon was declared "winner" and economists around the world trumpeted their triumph over the scientists. Ehrlich's error was to make the bet on the basis of price, which as we mentioned is a rubbery variable prone to all sorts of fluctuations, distortions and manipulations. The point Ehrlich wanted to make was that as time goes by, it becomes progressively more difficult for us to harvest, process and deliver the same amount of product (e.g. metal ingots). This is because we would have previously harvested all the "low hanging fruit", the easy pickings, ab initio. We always transition from initially easily scooping up high concentration ores to eventually scrounging the depths for low grade dregs. If Ehrlich had bet that the ENERGY costs of delivering the same amount of product would be higher after ten years (actually a fifteen or twenty year bet would have been preferable), he would have made a better wager6. This is an example of how even the smartest of scientists can run into trouble when trying to extrapolate the future on the basis of that most unreliable of variables, price.

On the other hand, was Simon's victory a result of greater wisdom or intelligence with regard to how prices work? Actually, no, he was just lucky, as was explained in David Murphy's 2011 post in TOD: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7343

Moral of this story? Making judgements and predictions based on price is prone to all sorts of pitfalls.

Conclusion:

Making judgements and predictions about oil availability on the basis of price, is like trying to make sense of a conversation between two people at the far end of a crowded room during a noisy party, with music blaring at full volume. The voices are there, but they are drowned out by too much extra noise. If one has a parabolic microphone and electronic audio filtering mechanisms however, it may be possible to achieve clarity and eliminate the background noise. We may be able to do so with regard to petroleum availability issues by looking at parameters other than the extremely noisy variable of price. This is discussed in Part 2.

Geoffrey Chia, November 2015

Footnotes:

1. Another factor contributing to low oil prices is economic deflation. Default of irredeemable debt in many sectors, due to the failure of real economic growth as a result of Peak Oil, has resulted in a contraction of the money supply relative to the pool of goods and services available ie deflation. This results in a fall in commodity prices across the board, oil included.

2. Please note this does not refer to Saudi Arabia increasing their oil output (which they cannot significantly do in a post Peak Oil situation with limited spare capacity), it refers to them refusing to substantially reduce their oil output in an atmosphere of global demand destruction. A sane exporter would reduce oil output in order to preserve high prices for this non-renewable finite resource, to maximise their long term sovereign earning capacity. Indications are that this Saudi insanity was pursued at the behest of the USA http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/16/the-oil-coup/ Like most of America's foreign policy dirty tricks, this tactic will result in future unintended consequences which will return to bite them. The current predatory low oil pricing is based on the US gamble that loss of foreign revenue by Russia and Iran will lead to their economic collapse and chaos in the short term, which will enhance Washington's ability to covertly implement “regime change” – to appoint US friendly administrations – in those countries. There are numerous examples in history of this US modus operandi, including regime change inflicted by the CIA on Iran itself in 1953. This time it will fail because the world is now wise to their tactics. The other “benefit” of flooding the market with cheaper Saudi oil is this: either Saudi oil will be preferentially purchased over Russian oil by Europe or it will force Russia to sell their oil cheaply to Europe. Either way it will diminish Russia's leverage over Europe, at least in the short term. What the US/Saudi axis is now unintentionally doing is forcing the Russians and Iranians to conserve their petroleum reserves while Saudi Arabia depletes theirs, for a price lower than the Saudi's would otherwise earn if they were not insane. In due course when the Saudi oil becomes more difficult (and hence more expensive) to extract, as it inevitably will, the Russians and Iranians will then, with their huge remaining quantities of (relatively) easy oil, gain the upper hand and be able to dictate the terms of the Great Game in the future. Blowback yet again. Americans see the eclipse of their empire looming and are adopting all sorts of short term desperate measures to forestall the inevitable.

3. Admittedly, this simple story of a struggling tradesman is prone to many "what ifs". Let us ignore the fact that in a deflationary environment, credit usually dries up and obtaining a bank loan may be impossible for a small business such as his. What if he does manage to get a bank loan to purchase another pick-up truck? Even with temporarily low oil prices, resuming work in a new environment of economic contraction with fewer clients, who themselves are under financial stress (and may go bankrupt and default on their payments to this tradesman) is likely to render resumption of his work unviable, apart from the fact he will probably never earn enough to pay back the bank loan for his new pick-up, in which case he will become a permanent debt slave. Much better if the tradie sells all his assets and moves to an off-grid rural community where he can grow his own food and offer his handyman services to his neighbours in an exchange economy.

4. http://energyskeptic.com/2014/lambert-hall-energy-eroi-and-quality-of-life/

5. At almost $600 billion per year, the US government spends more on its military than the next eight ranked countries in the world spend on their military combined.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Just diverting 2% of the US military budget per year to feed the poor over 5 years will be sufficient to completely solve world poverty. (Estimated cost to solve global poverty today is $58 billion http://www.borgenmagazine.com/much-money-end-global-poverty/ ) This situation was as true a decade ago as it is today. Why was this not done and why is it not being done and why will it never be done? Because US military expenditure is given priority over saving lives of the poor.

6. The situation is more complicated however. Just like petroleum, minerals go through a phase of rising extraction, a peak of extraction then terminal decline. Even if extraction of a particular ore is entering terminal decline, if that time period coincides with increasing energy availability (as was the case around 1990 with abundant petroleum available pre Peak Oil), then even though ore extraction and processing require more energy, the product may be cheaper due to energy being cheap at the time.

Posted in Energy, Home | Tagged Deflation, Energy, Peak Oil, Price

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW… SO WHAT’S NEXT?

Published October 21, 2015 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 2015

Discuss this article at the Collapse Narratives Table inside the Diner

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW… SO WHAT'S NEXT?

(This article includes a FREE satirical sci-fi novel)

Geoffrey Chia is a Australian Physician who has written many provocative articles including "The Brisbane Institute is a Brisbane Prostitute"

THAT WAS THEN

Eric Arthur Blair wrote under the pseudonym George Orwell for unclear reasons, possibly to avoid the flack he might receive as a result of expressing his political opinions. As it turned out, his pseudonym was a badly kept secret. His novel 1984 was more a reflection of the anxieties and social concerns of 1948 (the year it was written), than a prediction of the future world of 1984. In many ways, the terrible dystopia he painted may have been an attempt to galvanise the public of 1948 to oppose the forces of totalitarianism, an attempt to prevent the nightmare of 1984 from actually becoming reality.

1984 is possibly the most important novel ever written in the English language and remains essential reading for everyone today.

I too wrote a satirical dystopian novel "Icecubes in Rockets" under a poorly disguised pseudonym more than 10 years ago. I had certainly received plenty of flack for my condemnation of the invasion of Iraq around that time. As Orwell wrote: speaking truth is an act of treason in an empire of lies.

Here is my novel in full:

DOWNLOAD THE PDF HERE

"Icecubes in Rockets" was more a reflection of the politics and times of 2003/2004 than an attempt to predict the future. It was written in a fit of pique to protest against the US Republican Neoconartists and their devious cabal of psychopaths. Beyond that central theme however, it diverged into multiple seemingly unrelated threads which then came together at the end. The themes remain, unfortunately, all too relevant today. It is clear humans have learned absolutely nothing from the mess we have created. Icecubes is the only epic tale, to my knowledge, where a piece of shit has such a major impact (literally).

A colleague of mine, Professor Frank Lepre, commented (without irony) all those years ago that my story describing the end of the world seemed too optimistic. He was right. Going by current trends in 2015, many events in the novel will clearly never transpire, not least because it will be impossible for humanity to mount multiple missions to Mars. We now face impending energy constraints which all but ensure that the collapse of global industrial society will be complete by 2030. The reasons for this will be outlined in my next article.

THIS IS NOW

As far as historical projections which attempted to plot our future trajectory are concerned, the original Limits to Growth project by scientists from MIT published in 1972, which was relentlessly pilloried by perfidious economists for decades, has held the test of time better than any known initiative so far. LtG projections have been vindicated by reviews in recent years, conducted in particular by Dr Ugo Bardi and Dr Graham Turner. Dr Turner in 2008 and again in 2014 collected updated data, re-ran the computer analyses and demonstrated that real world events over the past 40+ years have closely tracked the standard model of the original LtG projections. Events start to go pear shaped from 2015, exactly what is happening now.

The LtG scientists considered a wide variety of models. Even favourably tweaking inputs in other scenarios using impossibly optimistic assumptions (eg new pollution control technologies which would immediately respond to critical thresholds, or having limitless resources as a result of super-efficient recycling) could not avoid ultimate collapse, because it enabled other aspects of each model (especially population) to spiral out of control. Collapse could be delayed by "band aid" technofixes, but when it eventually occurred was even more catastrophic.

The only realistic scenario which did not result in catastrophic collapse was the "stablised world" model, a multifactorial approach which primarily required the reduction of material consumption and the prevention of excessive population growth (commencing from the 1970s).

Global society today can be likened to a patient who has long pursued unrestrained overindulgence and previously received (but ignored) this advice from his physician: reduce your food consumption and prevent excessive sideways growth, or eventually suffer dire consequences such as a heart attack. Harbingers of the heart attack could be angina, worsening hypertension, worsening diabetes or worsening sleep apnoea.

What we are witnessing today are the harbingers of impending collapse in the form of jittery economies on the verge of breakdown (largely related to Peak Oil and financial bubbles), more frequent record-breaking extreme climate events, worsening pollution (especially in China from industry and in South East Asia from Indonesian forest fires), mass extinctions around the world and regional wars breaking out in vulnerable locations, causing the highest number of refugees since WW2.

Pundits who insist that global collapse can still be avoided, must explain to us in detail just exactly how this can be achieved given our current circumstances. When challenged on specifics, those cornucopians paint vague unrealistic pictures of magical sudden worldwide cessation of industrial/agricultural emissions (which magically does not result in economic collapse, food shortage and dieoff), magical cessation of conflicts, voluntary population stabilisation then decline to a steady state, equitable global distribution of resources, discovery of unlimited unpolluting energy and free movement of all refugees, welcomed without restriction into all the richer countries. Furthermore the environment magically repairs itself despite having 10 billion people consuming tremendous global resources by mid century. Yeah, right.

Promoting forlorn unrealistic hope to the public at this late stage is not only fantasist denial but may well be irresponsible. It diverts the audiences' attention towards useless campaigns and feel-good but ineffective activities. It robs them of the time and energy they could otherwise use to engage in worthwhile action. Our remaining time and energy are finite and must not be squandered.

In the words of Graham Turner himself in 2014, "Regrettably, the alignment of data trends with the LTG dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway. This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse." Turner, G. (2014) 'Is Global Collapse Imminent?', MSSI Research Paper No. 4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne

I believe the only worthwhile action now is to prepare at community level for societal collapse and to strive for local water, food and energy independence, while minimising fossil fuel input. If you can do so, your actions will speak much louder than words. You will then show others how to live a comfortable, low footprint lifestyle and can be a model for others to emulate. Here is one suggestion: http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

Not everyone can be saved, indeed the majority of humanity will die horribly in the coming decades, due to their inability or refusal to change their ways. However those who are able and willing to transform their lifestyles, who can learn how to do more with less, will have hope.

SO WHAT'S NEXT?

Just because global parameters tracked the upside curves of the standard model of LtG closely, does not necessarily mean we will also track the downside curves closely. In the standard model, global population falls smoothly by about half a billion per decade from around 2030 ("falls smoothly" is a euphemism for ordered die-off). I believe catastrophic disorderly sudden die-off is more likely than the smooth (albeit non-linear) downward trends seen in the standard model LtG curves, and will occur sooner than expected. This is not a criticism of the LtG scientists' sterling work, indeed we must acknowledge and admire their outstanding intelligence and foresight and their exceptional ability to process multiple variables simultaneously, utilising appropriate positive and negative feedback loops. However climbing up a slope is always harder and slower, but gravity assisted descent is always easier and faster, especially if you fall off a cliff. Furthermore it is impossible to plug-in the multiplicity of unexpected possibilities into the LtG analytical models and even if we could, it is impossible to know which particular scenario may be our fate. That does not prevent us from pondering some of them. Dr Bardi himself has alluded to the "Seneca cliff", which he feels is more likely than gradual decline. Dr Turner himself has alluded to the "butterfly effects" of unexpected, seemingly small events which can markedly alter the trajectory of societies. Other commentators have used the term "black swan" events.

What does sudden catastrophic collapse feel like? Just ask surviving Syrians who thought they were living semi-normal lives one day, but the next day experienced the demolition of their homes by incoming artillery. I showed that the Syrian civil war was a clear manifestation of the limits to growth in a previous essay, "A beginners guide to how the world really works, Part 1" http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/08/08/how-the-world-works-part-i/ , (bearing in mind that much of the powder keg which constituted the contrived state of Syria was a post European colonial legacy).

The Limits to Growth did not focus on the possibilities of global thermonuclear war, sudden global financial collapse or catastrophic climate events affecting critical food bowls simultaneously which could abruptly destablise society. Nor did it consider acts of targeted warfare (called Jihad by some and terrorism by others) directed at vital areas eg sabotage of the Saudi oilfields or the deployment of mines (and sinking some oil tankers) in the Strait of Hormuz, which will cause sudden catastrophic curtailment of global oil supply (and in turn global financial collapse). Nor did it consider the possibility of pandemics.

One sudden unexpected event (eg abrupt energy, water or food shortage) can lead to others (eg civil or interstate warfare) and yet others more (eg allies of the warring states joining in) and the entire system can decompensate in a chain reaction.

Triggers for warfare may be political and related to blustering reckless brinkmanship in the new "Great Game". For example, if the lunatic Republican Neoconartists once again gain power in the US and decide to bomb Iran (either directly or by their proxy Israel); Russia, now bound by treaty, would come to Iran's defence and this could easily escalate to a nuclear exchange. China, as a BRICS country dependent on Iranian oil, will no doubt be involved. Factoring in the prospect of global thermonuclear war into our future scenario is easy and can be done by any novice without a computer model. Essentially all the curves will go vertical. Resource availability, food production, industrial output and population will immediately crash to near zero. The pollution curve (from worldwide conflagrations) and death rates will go vertically upwards. Simple. In general however it is a waste of time to worry about events we cannot influence, avoid or mitigate. Hence most people in the world (being non-American) should not waste time worrying about possible global thermonuclear war. The only way to avoid the above scenario is for US citizens not to vote a lunatic like Donald Trump (or a moronic puppet like GW Bush) into presidential office, however that may be too much for the rest of the world to ask.

What about financial collapse? Financial collapse as a consequence of resource scarcity has actually already been modelled by the LtG scientists, because it essentially follows the curve of resource scarcity (primarily oil). However unpredictable financial collapse as a manifestation of bursting bubbles due to market fraud and herd behaviour of the sheeple (vis a vis the Great Depression of 1929 or GFC of 2008) may be impossible to model. Fraudulent financial bubbles can be identified and tracked (eg the subprime mortgage scheme, unconventional oil schemes, irredeemable debt of the PIIGS countries, indeed the irredeemable debt of all countries) but the exact timing of when they burst and exactly how those collapses will destabilise other parts of the financial system is unknowable. The best we can do is to make rough guesses, as I have outlined in "A beginners guide to how the world really works, Part 2" http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/08/14/how-the-world-works-part-ii/ . Will financial collapses be regional, stuttering and drawn out over several years? Who knows? However it may be more prudent to apply the precautionary principle and assume that one single major financial collapse will set off a cascade of global market crashes and will occur soon. No time like the present to prepare.

What about severe climate events suddenly destroying critical food bowls? At less then 1degC global temperature rise we have seen severe localised events eg loss of 25% of Russian grain production in the summer heatwave of 2010. Cyclone Yasi destroyed the entire banana crop in Queensland in 2011. Unless major rainfall from the current El Nino can resurrect agriculture in California very soon, their production is scheduled to collapse. There are many more contemporary examples of crop failures around the world due to droughts, floods, cyclones or heatwaves which are too numerous to mention, the harbingers of far worse to come.

Some futurists ponder the prospect of a global pandemic wiping out billions of people, in the way the "Spanish flu" wiped out millions after WW1. It is a significant concern to the World Health Organisation that a strain of animal virus could cross the species barrier then achieve person-to-person transmission and spread worldwide.

In many ways this last scenario, the pandemic die off of billions of people around the world, is in fact a highly desirable outcome for the 0.1% who control our morally bankrupt system, so long as they themselves are not affected. We have seen ample evidence beyond any shadow of a doubt that the exploitative and rapacious bankers, industrialists and political dynasties who pull the strings in our global system have zero regard for ordinary people. These puppet masters are the "self serving scumbags" described in my "Icecubes in Rockets" novel. A pandemic dieoff will lead to an immediate and dramatic fall in global carbon emissions and pollution, and a massive reduction in demand for food, water, energy and all resources, while leaving the built infrastructure intact. Many dead bodies will be consumed by scavenging animals and the rest will be fully decomposed after a few years and thus no longer pose a biohazard. Survivors of such a catastrophe will be well poised to reap the benefits of resources now freed up for their use. This will be "enhanced" demand destruction taken to the extreme. We can be certain that this scenario has been seriously considered by TPTB. They are not stupid and we know they are certainly grasping opportunists.

Accordingly, it is my view that rather than a spontaneous zoonosis causing a pandemic and massive dieoff, it is far more likely that a manufactured virus, created and propogated by certain psychopaths, will be liberated in a nefarious act of global mass murder. The perpetrators will of course ensure they and their minions (eg hired mercenaries) are vaccinated before unleashing this terror. The ideal agent to perform this task will be a modified strain of smallpox, the last specimens of which remain only in the possession of the USA and Russia.

Of the two, only the USA under the control of the Republican Neoconartists (if they regain power) is likely to perpetrate this obscenity. They have already amply demonstrated their willingness to commit genocide in pursuit of their greed. These murderers will obviously employ third party proxies eg paid Muslim extremists (in the same way Washington previously used the Taliban to pursue US objectives) to unleash the virus in multiple locations. This will give Washington plausible deniability and enable them to finger blame elsewhere. If you recall, the anthrax mailouts shortly after 9/11, initially blamed on Muslim terrorists, were eventually genetically fingerprinted and traced back to a US military laboratory in Maryland.

In contrast to the USA, the erstwhile USSR previously demonstrated a willingness to dismantle, restructure and ramp down their empire. Moscow's current "belligerence" is merely a response to Washington's needless antagonism of the Russian bear, an overbearing US attempt to undermine Russia's historic sphere of influence. Russia does not tolerate others undermining her interests, but is not a threat to the world at large.

CONCLUSION:

Medical students are expected to study not just common diseases, but numerous rare conditions as well. Why? Because even though a single particular rare condition may never be encountered by a particular doctor in his/her professional lifetime, however due to the very large number of rare diseases in aggregate, that doctor is bound to eventually encounter several patients with (as yet unspecified) rare conditions sometime during his/her future career.

The chance of a single particular improbable catastrophic global event occuring in the short term is low. However there are numerous low probability but high impact potential events, any one of which can cause a teetering complex system to crash suddenly and completely. Hence in aggregate, the likelihood that any one (of many as-yet unspecified improbable events) may occur is actually quite high.

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. For our complex technological society to function, it is necessary that every one of the thousands of links holding our system together remain intact, however many of those links are now very weak indeed and are on the verge of breaking.

Staving off collapse will require the operation of multiple, magical, extraordinary, complex mechanisms, performing flawlessly and simultaneously, to keep this ponderous, precarious edifice propped up. On the other hand, collapse can suddenly occur as a result of just one single mundane adverse event. Conventional economists would have us believe we can build a Jenga tower vertically forever. They are either liars or fools or both.

In my next article I will outline three lines of argument why global industrial collapse will be complete by 2030, just 15 years from now.

G. Chia October 2015

Posted in Home | Tagged Collapse Narratives

On Belief

Published April 16, 2015 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboards of Geoffrey Chia & Rebecca Willis

Published on the Doomstead Diner on April 15, 2015

Discuss this article at the Doom Psychology Table inside the Diner

ON THE NATURE OF BELIEF or:

Why do people believe what they believe (or claim to believe) ?

G. Chia & R. Willis April 2015

INTRODUCTION

In our previous essay, “Thinking about thinking“ we described the characteristics of dysfunctional (or unhealthy) and eufunctional (or healthy) thinking. We dispensed with the notion of “normal” thinking, because this term is essentially meaningless and unhelpful. If normal thinking is defined as the mode of thought adopted by the majority of a population, it is possible, indeed common, for “normal” thinking to be utterly dysfunctional and destructive, as shown by the many examples of mass delusions leading to chaos and warfare not only in history, but in our present day. As such, it may actually be a very bad thing to be “normal”, to run with the herd. We previously described the techniques by which the media, corporations and governments systematically exploit the infantile and reptilian aspects of our brains to impose particular views and values on the masses who lack the faculties of critical thinking. It turns out you can actually fool most of the people all of the time. Such social manipulation leads to the perversion of democracy.

Seminal publications such as “Irrationality” by Stuart Sutherland and “Bad Science” by Ben Goldacre have elucidated the mechanisms of flawed thinking and the tactics of pseudoscientific fraud in detail. Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway wrote the landmark book “The Merchants of Doubt” which described the origins of systematic global warming denialism, perpetrated by a few so-called “free” market ideologues funded by billionaire fossil fuel oligarchs. Notwithstanding her outstanding research and scholarship, Oreskes in this podcast interview

https://soundcloud.com/inquiringminds/43-naomi-oreskes-the-collapse-of-western-civilization/sets

could not fully explain why such blatantly fraudulent denial continues to be so readily accepted by large sections of society. She criticises the scientists for not being more forceful in opposition to such deceit.

The “new Atheists” such as Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris were active some years ago in debunking the nonsensical foundations for supernatural religious myths. They too did not provide a comprehensive explanation as to why many if not most members of society are unwilling or unable to shed the brain virus of religion (apart from stating that innate obedience to authority by children has historical survival value).

In this essay we assess the nature of human beliefs and try to explain the “stickiness” of nonsensical ideas which may have little or nothing to do with reality. The key question is this: what purposes do such false beliefs serve?

Belief refers to the acceptance of, or claimed acceptance of a particular paradigm. In theory, there might be some difference between sincere belief and proclaimed (but insincere) belief, however in practice there is little difference in real world outcomes (see next paragraph). Therefore we will not distinguish between the two for the purposes of this essay. Furthermore as behavioural psychologists assert, it can be difficult if not impossible to determine what is really going on in a person’s mind¹. Hence empirical science focuses on measurable actions, deeds and outcomes.

Twenty years ago when most people may not have personally been experiencing the effects of anthropogenic global warming or AGW (apart from seeing photographs of melting glaciers retreating all around the world), it was conceivable that many global warming denialists, unable to comprehend the science, sincerely believed that AGW was not true. Nowadays with exponential changes and extreme weather events occurring all round the world far exceeding the IPCC projections, rendering the fact of AGW indisputable, global warming denialists face a rearguard action. Those who remain intransigent cannot truly believe their position unless they are insane or stupid. Yet they persist in their purported belief that AGW is a hoax. If they are not insane or stupid, we can only conclude that their proclaimed “belief” is insincere and is cynically being used to serve their personal agendas and short term vested interests. Whether a result of stupidity (inability to see the overwhelming evidence for AGW) or mendacity (realising the truth of AGW but refusing to admit it), the outcome is the same, ie opposition to the reduction of GHG emissions, opposition to the adoption of renewable energy initiatives and continuation of business as usual to the point of annihilation.²

A paradigm may be accepted at emotional and/or intellectual levels. Generally, emotion tends to have a much stronger grip over people than intellect. This is because the majority of homo sapiens are not, in fact, sapient, but are driven primarily by their reptile brains. This fact was comprehensively demonstrated by the remarkably effective propaganda campaigns perpetrated by Bernays in the US and Goebbels in Germany, which were described in our previous essay³.

PART 1: THE NINE MAJOR FUNCTIONS OF FALSE BELIEFS

We assert that beliefs should be based on truth. What is truth? It is that paradigm which provides the closest approximation to reality. We know a belief is most likely to be true when it is backed up by evidence and reason, stands up to empirical validation and resists falsifiability. The belief passes the tests of scientific scrutiny, offers the best explanation for the circumstances being investigated and has useful predictive value. We assert that such reality based thinking should be the only valid reason for holding any belief⁴. All else is speculation or delusion. Unfortunately it appears that reality based thinking may actually be the least common reason for holding beliefs.

Why then do so many supposedly mentally “normal” people subscribe to non-reality based (ie false) beliefs? We assert that many, (probably most) people tend to seek out world views which:

justifiy the pursuit of their self interest
represent the easy option, the path of least resistance, which requires minimal intellectual, social, physical or financial investment or effort on their part. Ideas requiring sacrifice or hard work tend to be rejected.⁵
cast themselves in a positive light to impress others (especially to gain favourable treatment or special dispensation from others or advantage over others)
cast themselves in a postive light to boost their own egos. They subscribe to self-flattering narratives which elevate their status, which portray themselves as “special” or “exceptional” or “superior to” the rest of humanity and to the rest of creation (ie views which verify their infantile predisposition to believe they are the centre of the universe).
cast others in a negative light to justify the belittlement, ostracism, subjugation, oppression, exploitation and/or murder of “the other”.
cement the bonds of belonging, solidarity and pride within their social group or tribe. This is of important survival value to the individual, because historically, membership to a group or tribe was essential for material sustenance. Expulsion from the group, being left to fend on your own, could lead to death. One useful tool to bond tribal members is that of camaradarie resulting from being part of the same sporting team or fan club. If we regard the Nation as an extended tribe, this can take the form of overt displays of fanatical support for National sports teams or sportsmen. Hence former PM John Howard, despite himself being physically inept and hopelessly uncoordinated, took every opportunity to promote to the public his image as a “cricket tragic”. He even insisted that prospective Australian citizens learned the history of Donald Bradman, no matter that such useless pablum did nothing to educate them about core Australian values such as the Rule of Law, separation of powers, liberal democratic principles and freedom of (responsible) speech.

Tribal solidarity, even if based on imaginary myths (such as the Jews being the “chosen” people of God), has historically been of critical survival value to the group, as the members had to stick together to compete against or defend themselves from other groups.

offer psychological comfort, emotional solace and hope, particularly during difficult times. This is comforting function is exemplified in the famous passage from Psalm 23 of the Bible, “Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil; for thou art with me, thy rod and thy staff they comfort me”. Religion in particular can reassure the believer that “everything will be alright” no matter how dire and depressing their actual reality. This mindset can also confer survival value, because even if a situation poses a 99.99% likelhood of death, which a “rational” person may deem hopeless and therefore give up hope and perish, the “irrational” optimist, comforted by their ideology, will seize that 0.01% likelihood of survival. Hence in a mass die-off of a million people with a 99.99% death rate, the 100 or so people who do manage to survive against all the odds may mostly be those with “optimism bias”, who eventually propagate this trait to future generations. This may explain why “optimism bias” may be hard wired into human populations, as our distant ancestors have in fact faced mass die-offs more than once.
confer upon the believer a sense of schadenfreude smugness, a sense of satisfaction that somehow in the long run, their enemies will inevitably face horrible violent retribution in this life or the next.
offer simplistic pseudoexplanations which are easy to grasp (but are wrong). Most people are unable to comprehend complex ideas and therefore gravitate towards infantile scenarios or myths which superficially or intuitively “make sense” to them, but have no evidential or rational basis. For example, their “explanation” for human existence is that a supernatural father figure called God created everything just for us. Beyond this myth, the thoughts of the faithful congregation are then censored, they are not allowed to ask the next logical question, which is “who or what then created God?” because that would be blasphemy.

There is of course a tenth possible reason for holding a false belief, which is organic brain disease. We mentioned unusual conditions such as Capgras syndrome in our previous essay. Schizophrenia is characterised by “thought disorder” and deluded beliefs such as aliens broadcasting messages into one’s brain. Temporal lobe epilepsy can create hallucinations of an intensely religious nature. This essay on belief however focuses on the factors affecting belief in people without organic brain disease, hence here we will only apply the nine major factors described above and ancillary factors mentioned in parts 2 & 3, when analysing the nature of false beliefs.

Unfortunately the inevitable conclusion we must reach if the nine factors are indeed true, is that most human beings are self serving, lazy, boastful, egocentric, xenophobic, tribal, fearful, mean spirited and simple minded. The profusion of brutal human conflicts and Machiavellian behaviour in history can indeed be best explained by these traits. Some pundits such as Steven Pinker have argued that there has been a trajectory of increasing peace, diminishing violence and greater social enlightenment in human societies over the past couple of hundred years (which they expect will continue into the indefinite future). Such pundits invariably write from the perspective of (and within the cocoon of) rich industrial societies, which over the past two hundred years have accumulated immense material wealth derived from our ability to harness fossil fuels. However we would argue that such diminished violence is not due to greater enlightenment nor wisdom in the population, but due to the hugely abundant resources available per capita in rich societies in contemporary times. Unrest, dissatisfaction and violence are quelled when an abundance of resources are available. When per capita resources become scarce (due to increasing populations, climate devastation and diminishing supply of high net energy sources ie Peak Oil) as is happening now in more vulnerable countries, revolution erupts among the deprived who are unable to obtain sufficient food or clean water. Deprivation was the root cause of the “Arab Spring” revolutions of 2011 (extending into 2012, when Syria thoroughly disintegrated), not the pursuit of greater freedom nor human rights nor democracy among those populations. As the rest of the world experiences worsening deprivation, we will see many more such revolutions erupt around the world, with the inevitable imposition of martial law. We witnessed this unfold in Egypt. After Mubarak was deposed, the subsequent democratically elected government was also unable to provide the resources demanded by the population, resulting in ongoing unrest. The only way order could be restored was by a military takeover. The military government will of course be no better at delivering resources to the people than any other government. They merely serve to maintain order by brutally suppressing dissent⁶.

Using the criteria above we can immediately understand why certain religious and political myths have such a strong hold over the human psyche, despite having no basis in reality. Let us examine the mindset of right wing Christian “patriotic” Americans, such as US Republican Tea Party members or the Republican Neoconservatives, with regard to the nine points above. Their typical beliefs, which are held to a greater or lesser degree among the faithful are:

The “exceptionalism” of the USA, that they are entitled to do anything, anywhere, to anyone in the world (eg invade Iraq), using any fabricated excuses. They make up the rules and everyone else has to comply (or face trade sanctions, a CIA backed coup or invasion). American exceptionalism means that International Law does not apply to the USA or its citizens eg they can kidnap anyone arbitrarily and render them to prisons without trial and subject them to torture. Habeus corpus does not apply to “alien” nationals.
The renewable energy option is just too much hard work and involves too much sacrifice. Much better to deny that global warming or Peak Oil exist, so they can blissfully continue their easy, comfortable fossil fuel based American way of life forever, a lifestyle which is “non-negotiable” (as famously declared by George HW Bush). Hence their favourite catchphrase “drill baby, drill”.
The USA is the “last best hope” for the world, a beacon of freedom, liberty and democracy for a glorious future, which everyone else, everywhere else, will do well to emulate. They conveniently ignore the fact that the USA since World War II has a track record of actually undermining freedom, liberty and democracy around the world. They have a prolific history of corrupting governments to enslave their people to the service of American profits, or of overthrowing democratically elected governments, from Guatemala to Iran to Chile to name a few, then installing murderous despotic puppet leaders who offer sweetheart deals to predatory US corporations.
They (the good Christian Neocons) were created in the image of God who has given them dominion over all creation to do with as they please.
The “other” represent the forces of evil, whether it was Reagan’s view of “the evil empire” of the Soviet Union or Bush’s “crusade” against Saddam Hussein the “terrorist”, (even though Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11 and actually opposed Al Qaeda and it was in fact the US destruction of a functioning Iraq which turned it into a hotbed of terrorism and a breeding ground for ISIS). In preparation for the US invasion of Iraq, grunts in boot camp training were encouraged to denigrate Iraqis as “towel heads” or “sand niggers” to facilitate the indiscriminate oppression or murder of innocent people.
The common views and values of the GOP faithful reinforce their prejudices and serve as social glue between them. “Patriotism” and “Nationalism” are regarded as lofty virtues, just as the Nazis promoted such unquestioning mindless conformity. (We see a similar mindset with Tony Abbott’s “team Australia”). Those who exposed or undermined illegitimate or murderous US government practices, such as Aaron Swartz or Edward Snowden, were labelled as traitors. The vicous pursuit of Swartz and Snowden by the US government illustrates that the Obama administration is, in this respect, no different in practice to the rabid, foaming at the mouth Republicans.
God is on their side and as “good” Christians in the “end times”, they will be magically levitated to paradise in the Rapture and enjoy heavenly bliss forever.
Everyone else in the “end times” will die and suffer excruciatingly in the fires of hell. Unbelievers and non-Christians will get their just desserts in the form of relentless torture for all eternity. Furthermore these good Christians hold the view that Jihadi suicide bombers, who believe they will be rewarded with 72 virgins in Muslim heaven, are utterly deluded.
Global warming is a hoax, it is far to complicated to understand and must therefore be a greenie conspiracy. Evolution is a hoax, it is far to complicated to understand and must therefore be an atheist conspiracy. They cannot imagine a world 4.5 billion years old nor the gradual movement of continents across the face of the planet, however a 6000 year old world with fixed continents is easier to grasp by the simpleminded and therefore must be true.

Australia has its own share of lunatics who hold similar Imperialistic and religious views to varying degrees, from the Rinehart funded racist hack Andrew Bolt, to politicians such as the execrable Cory Bernardi and the anti-science Prime Monster Tony Abbott. It is fair to describe them as self serving, lazy, boastful, egocentric, xenophobic, tribal, fearful, mean spirited and simpleminded. Our most powerful tool to oppose such corrosive, indeed downright evil characters, is the weapon of ridicule. For any talented satirists out there, here is a suggested title for a series of political cartoons: The Madventures of Phoney Rabbit AKA Malice in Plunderland. Abbott is portrayed as a long eared, rodent-like creature (akin to his “conservative” predecessor, the lying rodent war criminal) whose only ideas about national policy are to abuse refugees (including children⁷) and to seek out money by digging holes in the ground.

We can now understand why such people reject (and are downright hostile toward) world views which:

Reveal that their agendas are self serving with utter disregard for any people outside their circle of insular tribalism.
Require they adopt a difficult path of hard work and sacrifice.
Reveal that they are actually morally deficient or morally bankrupt.
Reveal that they are not particularly special and are in fact inextricably related to that which they have regarded as inferior or repugnant or “separate”. For example, they regard the environment as “separate” from human beings and “separate” from economics, they believe the environment is an infinite resource and a limitless toilet that they can use and abuse forever. Hence they reject the views that we originate from, are part of and are dependent on the environment for our survival, labeling such views as “leftie/greenie” propaganda⁸.
Reveal that the groups they have previously reviled, “the other”, are in fact just ordinary human beings not too different from themselves. Indeed “the other” may well be morally superior to them in many respects and certainly do not deserve to be exploited and killed.
Require them, for ethical or other honourable reasons, to break away from their traditional social support group or tribe or nation, an emotionally gutwrenching act which they cannot contemplate.
Reveal the reality of the situation is far worse than they ever imagined, with little or no hope for the future. This can lead to disruptive psychological and emotional distress and even despair (eg awareness of the guaranteed self-destruction of industrial civilisation and the possibility of human extinction as a result of climate devastation)
Reveal that not only will there be no future paradise for them but their enemies will not get any particular “comeuppance”. Everyone is in the same boat.
Are too complex for them to understand⁹

We can now also see why it is difficult if not impossible to pry people away from their religious and political beliefs and why logical argument using irrefutable evidence is generally ineffective. Nothing short of a monumentally traumatic upheaval (eg the arbitrary death of their own child, perhaps from an extreme weather event) which forces them to try to make sense of the situation and to confront their false beliefs, may possibly have any effect. Even despite such an event, many will still go to their graves persisting in their denial of reality, as their mindset is too firmly entrenched. They simply cannot give up the phoney edifice, the false image, that they have constructed of themselves, for themselves.

PART 2: OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCING BELIEFS (or proclaimed beliefs):

The blame game: avoiding or laying blame:

a. Avoiding blame: You will recall the trial of Oscar Pistorius (the bilateral amputee athlete nicknamed “the blade runner”) in 2014 for the killing of his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp. According to neighbours the couple had a loud argument lasting more than an hour late at night, just prior to the shooting. Pistorius pleaded not guilty, his defence in court being that he believed her to be a burglar in the washroom, a burglar who had decided to linger about and partake in bodily ablutions (as desperate criminals are wont to do) before sauntering off with any booty. Quite rightly, the judges dismissed Pistorius’ absurd proclaimed “belief” for the contrived nonsense it was.

b. Laying blame:

To blame others in order to “make sense” of a devastating event (“something bad happened, it must be someone’s fault”) or assuage their own sense of guilt (eg their child being afflicted with autism), or to extort financial compensation. Two examples here:

Blaming the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine for autism:

This scare was manufactured by the fraudster Andrew Wakefield in an anecdotal compilation of twelve cases published by the respected medical journal the Lancet in 1998¹⁰. The concerns raised were taken seriously by the Medical community. In subsequent years, at least 120 studies were conducted in different countries involving huge numbers of children – the Danish cohort study alone, by Madsen et al, followed up more than half a million children. Multiple meta-analyses of the numerous independent studies were performed by different bodies (eg. the US CDC, UK MRC, NHS and Cochrane collaboration to name a few) and no convincing statistical association between MMR and autism could ever be demonstrated. It was conclusively found that the benefits of the MMR vaccine overwhelmingly exceeded any risks. Yes, the vaccine could have side effects, but catching the infections was many magnitudes worse (particularly in malnourished children in poor countries). Wakefield was investigated and was discovered to have committed scientific fraud for pecuniary gain and was deregistered by the General Medical Council of the UK in 2010. The Lancet itself eventually retracted Wakefield’s paper, denouncing it as a fraudulent submission. The mainstream media on the other hand had no interest in hard data. Sensationalism is what sells the tabloids. They chose scientifically illiterate journalists to continue perpetrating Wakefield’s fraud according to the time honoured tactic of Goebbels (if you repeat a lie often enough, people will come to believe it). As a result, there remains no shortage of people who still “believe” this fabricated lie and think that the medical establishment are involved in a conspiracy to cover up any MMR/autism link (if so, why did the Lancet publish it in the first place?). This has resulted in many children not being vaccinated over the years, loss of herd immunity and the eruption of various viral epidemics. Wakefield, the scurrilous mainstream media and their gullible readers have been responsible for the death and disability of many unvaccinated children. This is an ongoing issue, the most recent measles epidemic occurring among visitors to Disneyland in December 2014. This is but one example of the deceit perpetrated by antivaccination zealots who have mounted scare campaigns against other vaccines such as whooping cough. In 2012, more than 48,000 cases of whooping cough and 20 deaths were reported to the US Centers for Disease Control, the greatest number since 1955. Even though many of these antivaccination nutcases may be wealthy middle class Americans or Australians, their mentality is the same as that of the Islamic fundamentalists or the Taliban who killed polio vaccinators working in Nigeria or Pakistan ¹¹. Hence the one great chance humanity had to eradicate another viral blight (other than smallpox) from the face of the Earth has now been lost due to stubborn and vicious human ignorance. Unfortunately it is the children who suffer the most, at the hands of those who claim to act in their best interests.

Blaming silicone breast implants for rheumatological or autoimmune diseases:

The assertion, over many years, that silicone breast implants caused rheumatological or autoimmune diseases, was conclusively disproven by several studies including those by the Mayo Clinic (NEJM 1994) and a Harvard Nurses study (NEJM 1995). No significant association could be found. Even though many lawsuits against implant manufacturers were subsequently dismissed, courts still sporadically found in favour of litigants despite the absence of scientific evidence eg in late 1998 the Nevada Supreme Court upheld a compensatory damage award of $41 million against Dow Chemical to Charlotte Mahlum for her multiple-sclerosis-like symptoms. In January 1999 a jury in a Washington Federal court awarded $10 million in compensatory damages against Bristol-Myers-Squibb to an attorney who claimed her implants caused scleroderma. Such verdicts show that the Law can indeed be an ass.

It is not our intention to defend any corporations or establishment organisations. It is our intention to promote the use of evidence, reason and fairness as the bases for belief and action, no matter what individuals or groups are in question. This should be equally applicable to our dealings with the “evil” corporations.

The 6 P: The proposition of predisposition to a paradigm based on politics, personality or profession:

This is idea that people seek belief systems which happen to align with their political prejudices (eg right wing conservatives vs left wing, small “l” liberals), their innate personality (eg pessimist vs optimist) or their professional background (reflecting the ingrained mindset and experiences of the profession they were trained in). It is a highly prevalent idea popularised by the mainstream media, but has weak explanatory power and can be misused. It is such a large topic that it requires considerable elaboration in appendix 1 to this article.

PART 3: FACTORS WHICH GENERATE AND PROPAGATE BOGUS PARADIGMS

Childhood indoctrination is probably the most powerful factor. Richard Dawkins himself alluded to the fact that children will uncritically accept the edicts of authority figures, which certainly has survival value when there is legitimate transfer of worthwhile practical knowledge from old to young. However, like many human traits, this process is open to abuse by those in power. Childhood indoctrination with nonsensical ideas can be particularly difficult to shake off and may require many decades of critical re-evaluation by the thinking individual before being shed, if at all. As the Jesuits famously claimed “give me a child until he is seven and I will give you the man” ¹². They had certainly figured out how to brainwash children.
The “might equals right” paradigm, which is generally framed in this way: God is on my side. I have triumphed over my enemies. That proves God is on my side. Consider groups A to E, which each believe in “different” gods, however thay all adopt the exact same paradigm mentioned above. In battles between the groups, group A eventually triumphs and dominates groups B to E (one group or another is bound to win, eventually). Group A then claims in retrospect they have “proven” god A is the only true god and the other groups also end up subscribing to this view, seeing as how their own gods have abandoned them to defeat (never mind the fact that none of these gods ever existed in the first place). In reality any other group, eg group B, could well have triumphed (depending on all sorts of factors including military intelligence, superior technology, better organisation and most important, sheer luck eg weather which favoured them on the day of battle). Triumphant group B would then claim their god B is the only true one and the others would buy into it. Such a retrospective claim does not however prove the validity of any god nor the existence of any god. It is a post hoc pseudoproof with no basis in reality, however it is a powerful propaganda tool which can be used to persuade the unthinking masses.
Extreme conviction. Strongly held beliefs may sometimes be defended to the death. However just because an individual is willing to die for their belief (eg Christian martyrs in pagan Rome) does not mean that their belief is true. It merely reflects an intractable delusion (which in some cases may be the result of temporal lobe dysfunction or schizophrenia, organic brain abnormalities which are completely impervious to logical persuasion). Matyrdom however tends to be a rather convincing act of commitment, which may therefore serve to recruit naive onlookers as new followers.

PART 4: DENIALISM VS SKEPTICISM, ANALYSING THE ANALYSTS

Global warming denialists insist they should be called skeptics and resent being called denialists. The fact is they are not skeptics and are unworthy of such a title. The only proper, correct and accurate term for them is denialists.

A skeptic is one who debunks nonsensical beliefs (ie. ideas not based on evidence and reason). A true skeptic will therefore debunk the idea that global warming is a hoax rather than promote it.

Even though the skeptic habitually debunks silly ideas, this does not mean the skeptic does not believe in anything. In fact, a true skeptic is also a rationalist, who accepts paradigms based on evidence and reason, while simultaneously allowing for the possibility that such science based paradigms may be need to be modified or even abandoned if better evidence and reason subsequently come to light.

The astounding effectiveness of the Scientific Method which has transformed our modern lives is undeniable proof that Objective Truth exists. All of our modern inventions, innovations and complex systems (eg computer software) originating from scientific discoveries, logic and rationality are predicated on the fact that Objective Truth exists, that outside our tiny little minds there is an external reality which operates on hard mathematical principles and a logical framework. Mathematics is the language of the universe. Only ivory tower philosophers¹³ and humanities graduates educated to the highest level of stupidity will attempt to deny the fact of Objective Truth¹⁴, even as they type out their drivel on their electronic computers.

Absolute Truth however is something we can never achieve. Even in the “hard” science of Physics, truth is highly contextual. For example, Newton’s laws of motion and gravitation, strictly speaking, are not absolutely “true” but are merely extremely accurate in the context of the medium scale (the magnitudes of mass, speed, acceleration etc familiar to our human scale). However Newtonian physics needs to be modified or abandoned in favour of Einstein’s theories of relativity in the situations of extreme mass, relative speeds or acceleration eg when making satellite GPS calculations or in the vicinity of a black hole. Furthermore Newtonian and gravitational considerations vanish at the level of subatomic particles where Quantum mechanics must be adopted. Each of these Physics paradigms, applied in the appropriate context, is objectively true (often to a mindbogglingly high level of mathematical precision), but in a different context the paradigm may have to be modified or even disregarded. None of those Physics paradigms represents Absolute Truth. Indeed, in Quantum mechanics, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle provides mathematical proof that Absolute Truth is absolutely unattainable.

All statements about truth are actually statements about probability, about what we deem to be correct beyond any reasonable doubt. This applies to the context of a rocket scientist who calculates the trajectory of a spacecraft and makes judgements about where it is and where it is headed, which, although highly accurate, are always prone to margins of error. It applies to the context of the climate scientists who collate data from multiple sources and make judgements about the current state of global warming and where we are headed, which are also prone to margins of error, but represent the most reliable information we can possibly achieve. The denialists who demand absolute precision about the present, absolute certainty about the future and “absolute truth” about everything are merely demonstrating that they are utterly ignorant as to how Science and reality work.

Skeptical thinking requires both intellectual flexibility and humility. Humility to admit error when the evidence indicates one is wrong and humility to be able to examine one’s own beliefs. Even the famous quip by Socrates that “the unexamined life is not worth living”, itself requires examination. What was the basis of Socrates’ belief ? Was it founded on some sort of empirical observation, population survey or cohort study? Or did it merely stem from intellectual arrogance: “I am a grey haired philosopher therefore my life is more worthwhile than yours” (reflecting belief functions 4 and 5)?

Using the Socratic method itself, we ourselves should ask Socrates: What is an unexamined life and what is an examined life? Is there a hard boundary between the two categories or a gradual fuzzy transition? At what level of fuzzy transition does a life suddenly become worthwhile? Is navel gazing the only criterion by which we should measure the value of a life?

Consider children with Down’s syndrome, who tend to be good natured, gentle, generous and loving. They have a great capacity to derive joy from simple everyday life and can also generate great joy for others, especially their parents. However they lack the ability to indulge in complicated philosphical musings. Does that mean their lives are not worth living?

Consider philosophers such as Otto Weininger or intellectuals such as Sylvia Plath, who deeply examined their own lives, wallowed in existential angst and eventually committed suicide, the ultimate declaration that their examined lives were not worth living.

We agree that those who can attain a deeper understanding of life, the universe and everything can also gain a higher level of appreciation regarding our existence. The intermittent “eureka” moments enjoyed from achieving profound comprehension of various aspects of Reality while muddling through this journey of life, certainly add greatly to the richness of our life.

Is it however better to be a contented cow, blissfully ignorant as you are being led along the ramp to the slaughterhouse; or a sentient being, fully aware and utterly terrified of your impending demise as you trundle towards the abbatoir? Perhaps it is best to strive to be a sentient being who can sieze control of your own destiny and escape from the abbatoir. This is what we advocate to our readers: get off this fatal path now, before it is too late. It is no longer possible to “save humanity” but you may be able to save yourselves, to survive at least a few decades beyond the general die-off, by establishing an offgrid permaculture community in a high latitude remote location.

PART 5: REASSESSING “CHICKEN AND EGG” ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT BELIEF

Neurophysiological studies have discovered this bizarre, counterintuitive finding: that the electrical trigger in the motor cortex to perform an action precedes the electrical activity in the frontal cortex indicative of our conscious awareness to perform that act. The neurological impulse to, say, pick up an object activates a split second before the awareness we have made such a decision surfaces. Our brain triggers the action first, then we make up reasons as to why we acted later.

Using that as an analogy, let us also consider this possibility: that we instinctively understand what behaviours are required to advance our self interests (at least in the short term), such as seizing the resources of other people. Only after we have commited ourselves to behave in a particular way do we then make up “beliefs” to justify our heinous actions, eg the Neoconartists proclaimed “belief” that Saddam had WMDs in Iraq, evidence be damned. Here is another example: I know my luxurious lifestyle depends on my profligate combustion of fossil fuels, which I therefore choose to continue unabated. Only after I have made that choice, do I then profess my belief that AGW must be a hoax, evidence be damned.

Hence rather than belief giving rise to behaviour (as is generally assumed), we assert that in many cases the decision to pursue a course of self serving behaviour is made first and only subsequently is a purported “belief” then fabricated. This would explain why so many purported beliefs are patently absurd and are unrelated to any real world evidence. Contrived “beliefs” tend to lack any logical consistency, apart from the finding that they benefit the “believer” and are used to justify their despicable behaviour.

CONCLUSION

Before attempting to analyse others, it is important we analyse ourselves. Are our beliefs based on reality and truth (as they should be), or are they contrived and based on or influenced by the self serving elements outlined in our essay?

We contend that our exposition regarding the nature of human belief provides the best explanation as to why supposedly sane people without any known brain damage, such as members of the US Republican Tea Party or Australian “conservative” politicians (and those who voted them in), can subscribe to beliefs which are demonstrably false, irrational and ludicrous.

Never has the phrase “knowledge is power” been so starkly relevant, as when applied to the understanding of the psychological mechanisms which underpin human behaviour. Freud was the first to describe how the reptilian and infantile aspects of our brains tend to dominate over the rational and restrained “superego”. His nephew Edward Bernays applied this knowledge to devastating effect, with astoundingly successful US government and commercial propaganda campaigns which reaped vast wealth for himself.

If you are among the tiny fraction of the human population who are interested in these matters and have managed to read and understand this article up to this point, you will now also have acquired the knowledge by which you can gain power over others. You will now know how to manufacture an ideology which panders to the nine factors which promote adherence to false beliefs. You will grasp the means by which you can indoctrinate gormless people, who constitute the majority of the population, into your ideology. With a little charisma and marketing, you too can be the next L. Ron Hubbard or Sun Myung Moon, reaping vast wealth for yourself.

Or you can try to do some good in the world instead, by teaching others how to think critically, avoid false beliefs and resist bullshit.

Proximate Planetary Problems	Caused by:	Caused by:	UNDERLYING CAUSES of Planetary Problems
– Mass extinctions due to– Ecosystem destruction due to– Global warming and – Pollution	– Overharvesting of Nature’s Capital and – Fossil Fuel extraction and combustion	– Overconsumption & excessive waste production by– Excessive numbers of homo stupidus	– Bad human behaviour due to – Dysfunctional thinking (eg delusional “infinite” economic growth on a finite planet) and – Bogus beliefs (eg a God given sense of entitlement)

Medical principles specify that true cures for diseases can be only achieved by elimination of the underlying causes of those diseases. True cures for our planetary problems can only be achieved by elimination of the underlying causes of those problems, ie human beings who behave badly. By necessity, this will take the form of either complete human extinction, or the massive dieoff of humanity leaving only a tiny handful of survivors who are able to behave properly, who can exert a light ecofootprint without destroying the very life support systems which sustain us. Such remaining sapient humans can then pass on the qualities of eufunctional thinking and reality based beliefs to future generations. Failure to achieve sapience among surviving humans will inevitably lead to complete human extinction. The Planet will rid itself of parasitic human activities one way or another.

Attributions: Geoffrey Chia: inflammatory language, Rebecca Willis: quality control.

Footnotes:

Functional MRI may change this, however such research is beyond the scope of this essay.
Who tends to benefit from such a position? The fossil fuel industry. Who has funded the multibillion dollar disinformation campaign denying AGW? The fossil fuel industry.
For a society to descend into madness, two elements must coexist together: a self-serving, deceitful ruling class and a gullible, compliant population. If one exists but not the other, then sanity may yet prevail. If lying psychopaths somehow seize power but a sensible population are wise to the absurdity of their propaganda, the psychopaths will be ejected in short order. If the population are naive and gullible but are governed by wise and benevolent leaders, then sane policy promoting social justice and peace can prevail, but may be tenuous. The naive population is always vulnerable to the false promises and charisma of duplicitous psychopaths, who may eventually sieze power. The best scenario is of course that of a sapient population who vote into power wise and benevolent leaders to govern them, but this population must not hesitate to depose and prosecute any leaders who engage in egregious acts of betrayal such as railroading the country into war on the basis of lies. The key to social stability therefore has to be the intensive education of the general population in critical thinking, to encourage them to be active politically and to hold their leaders to the highest standards of ethical behaviour. Unfortunately the so-called modern education system is only geared towards churning out clever idiots, useful cogs in the machinery of industrial society who lack the sense or the motivation to question or oppose obscenities such as the invasion of Iraq or the omnicidal agenda of the fossil fuel corporations. Among the clever idiots, I (GC) must include my own Medical Specialist colleagues, in whom I am deeply, deeply disappointed.

It is abundantly clear that the USA of today has tumbled well down into the abyss of insanity, with not much further to go till it implodes catastrophically. It appears that Australia will inevitably follow suit.

http://guymcpherson.com/home/doomstea/public_html/guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/WISDOMSeekingTruth-by-Chia-for-NBL.pdf
It has been quipped that the favourite response by a bureaucrat to any request is “NO”, because such a negative answer fulfils two functions: it gives him/her a sense of power over others and enables him/her to avoid doing any actual work.
The Pentagon, in collaboration with major US universities, is in the process of militarising the social sciences, to formulate a systematic action plan which they will ruthlessly implement when civil society inevitably breaks down in the USA. They have titled this “The Minerva Initiative”. Their goal is to maintain, through force, the supply chains of fossil fuels and other critical resources as they become scarce, to preserve the creature comforts and security of the controlling establishment, at the expense of everyone else. Dr Nafeez Ahmed, erstwhile Guardian writer, calls it “a defence manifesto for the one percent”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-14/malcolm-fraser-attacks-abbott-treatment-human-rights-commission/6098920
Abbott’s latest manifestation of foot-in-mouth disease was seen in his condescending St. Patrick’s day speech to the Irish on 13/3/15 when he declared it was “the one day of the year when it’s good to be green” before waving his green tie at the camera.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/03/13/12/45/pm-abbotts-patronising-st-patricks-day-message-slammed-by-irish-business-leaders The way this fossil fuel flunky parades his ignorant environmental vandalism as badge of pride continues to be truly nauseating and represents an ongoing malevolent threat to humanity.

Incomprehensible complexity by itself is not a reason to reject a paradigm. It all depends on whether the complex paradigm is based on evidence, reason and proof. I (GC) will be the first to admit I am too stupid to understand Einsteinian or Quantum Physics. I find them incomprehensibly complex. Nevertheless I trust and accept their conclusions, not because they have been advocated by professorial authority figures in white coats, but because they have been amply validated in the real world. Functioning electronics, laser devices and GPS systems to name just a few, are irrefutable proof of the truth of those paradigms. There is a vast difference between trust in Science, which is based on real world validation, and faith in Religion, which is based on gullilbility. On the other hand, many of the financial machinations of bankers and their cronies have deliberately been made incomprehensibly complex and opaque, not because they are based on real mathematical laws of the universe, but because they wish to obfuscate and hide the convoluted pathways by which they funnel vast amounts of money into their pockets. They are parasites on the productive endeavours of society. This explains why poor and middle class people, particularly in the USA, have been going backwards economically over the past few decades despite working longer and harder, but the top 0.1% have seen their bank balances skyrocket despite little or no effort on their part (unless one defines “effort” as creating new “financial innovations” such as subprime mortgage schemes camouflaged by collateralised debt obligations and credit default swaps).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMR_vaccine_controversy#cite_note
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poliomyelitis_eradication#Opposition_and_aid_worker_killings
https://breakingspells.wordpress.com/2008/01/01/give-me-a-child-until-he-is-seven-and-i-will-give-you-the-man/
I (GC) define an ivory tower philosopher as a scientifically illiterate pundit who attempts to explain life, the universe and everything by navel-gazing within the vacuum of ignorance. Advice to philosophers: unless you can achieve some level of scientific knowledge and literacy, your pontifications are utterly worthless and any similarity of your ideas to objective reality are purely coincidental. On the other hand, scientifically literate philosophers such as Clive Hamilton are of immense value to humanity. We sorely need their thoughts and advice, as is true for scientifically literate investigative journalists.
The misrepresentation of “cogito er sum” by philosophers and the faulty logic of Pascal’s Wager compared with the good sense of the Precautionary Principle are outlined in appendix 2

Appendices 1 and 2 will be published in another post

Posted in Home, Psychology | Tagged Belief, Climate, Denial, Empire, Politics, Propaganda, Religion, Thinking

Tiny Houses

Published February 2, 2015 | By Geoffrey Chia

Off the keyboard of Dr. Geoffrey Chia

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Published on The Doomstead Diner on February 2, 2015

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DESIGN FOR AN OFF-GRID, PASSIVE-SOLAR, TINY HOUSE ON WHEELS

(includes a blueprint for a low consumption lifestyle and a proposal for a robust community)

G. Chia, Brisbane, Australia, February 2015

BACKGROUND

The tiny house movement arose in the USA after many people lost their houses in the wake of the subprime mortgage scam. My motivation for designing an off-grid passive-solar tiny house on wheels arose from various frustrating delays and impediments experienced when trying to obtain council approval for a cottage, particularly with respect to the composting toilet system. Other reasons people may choose a tiny house may be affordability, short build duration and transportability. Personal involvement with the build enables future ease of maintenance by the owner whether it be electrical (which anyone can perform with a low voltage DC system1), plumbing or structural repairs. Gas connections however must be done by certified gas fitters.

This particular design arose from my views regarding the drawbacks of living aboard a boat or a standard caravan, while also adopting some of the space saving innovations of such mobile dwellings. Internet research was also immensely valuable, especially viewing the numerous video clips of tiny houses on the web.

Dimensional constraints of the road legal tiny house are outlined within the regulations of each country, in Australia the width being <2.5 metres and total height <4.3 metres. Allowable length of the trailer is apparently up to 12.5 metres, however that is far longer than is needed in practice, a trailer base length of less than 8 metres being sufficient for most folks2. Any longer may result in a heavy structure exceeding the towing capacity of the most powerful 4WD/SUV ie. 8 metres (or even 7 metres, depending on materials used for construction) may be the longest practical trailer base, without having to resort to a Mack truck. Although personally opposed to the purchase of a 4WD for trivial commuting (eg one person driving10km to buy one litre of milk), I acknowledge the necessity for the one-off rental of a 4WD (or towing cab) for the single journey of the tiny house from the site of construction to the permanent destination.

Note: Australian regulations require at least one door be located on the left hand side or at the rear of the mobile home, presumably to allow safe ingress/egress when stopped by the side of the road. For countries with traffic on the right, presumably their regulation will require at least one door on the right hand side or at the rear of the structure.

This is not just an article about a type of house. It is an article about a change in lifestyle. It describes the special components which make up the house and the (trivial) lifestyle modifications required to drastically reduce one’s ecofootprint. For those who purchase the building materials (rather than salvage offcuts from building sites) the upfront cost may seem a little high, however never having to pay utility bills will result in huge lifetime savings3. More importantly, if and when the central utilities fail, you will be living comfortably while others are suffering.

Freedom from a mortgage. Freedom from utility bills. Freedom from the disruptions of grid failure. Freedom of movement. Ethical living without sacrificing comfort. This article promotes ongoing use of (low energy) electronic gadgets and electrical appliances for as long as we are able. It is not about reverting to the stone age and wearing sack cloth. It is not about deprivation.

BASIC PRINCIPLES:

The key to minimising your ecofootprint is to reduce consumption by increasing efficiency and turning waste into a resource (granting that high safety and health standards must be maintained). If everyone in the rich world had vigorously pursued this principle twenty years ago (combined with reducing the rate of human reproduction) we would not be headed for global catastrophe now4. However voluntary mass reduction of consumption was never likely to happen, being in direct opposition to the “infinite growth on a finite planet” agenda of the psychopaths who control the establishment.

Nevertheless, the principle of making a little go a long way is also of prime importance when devising a lifestyle which will enable one to survive, even thrive, through the upcoming collapse of industrial civilisation and the die-off of the majority of humanity.

The major objection by the endless growth ideologues to the principle of reducing consumption, was their claim it would compromise the quality of one’s life, even lead to impoverishment (the same argument they used against reducing carbon emissions). Utter rubbish. It does involve some degree of lifestyle modification, however as will be shown, there need be no reduction in your quality of life, particularly as we are now able to access brilliant technology such as high output LED lights, photovoltaic panels (which have markedly fallen in price) and evacuated tube solar hot water heaters. Furthermore living in a small space is immensely liberating because it forces you to dispose of all non-essential crap in your life so you are no longer a slave to your possessions. Having said that, storage space in the tiny house is limited, hence it is expected you should also have a large external community lockup shed (at least the size of a triple garage) which may also serve as a workshop, a meeting place, a place out of the rain for your clotheslines and a storage place for boxed items (winter bedding, valued books, long term food stores, gardening tools etc). The large shed roof will be essential for additional rainwater collection. This shed, being a very basic structure, can be rapidly approved by council (building application submitted as a shed or a garage) and quickly and affordably built from a kit by a contractor to your specifications eg able to withstand 200km/h winds.

The tiny house diagrams are displayed just after this paragraph. You may wish to intermittently refer back to them as you continue reading, to better understand the ideas being described. The original scale was 1:50 which is not the case with these reduced pictures:

FEATURES OF THIS TINY HOUSE:

Disclosures and disclaimers: I mention certain brands and models of items in this article because I have personal experience with them and know that they work, however I have no pecuniary interest in any of those companies. I have invented none of the items described here but have merely put things together in a package I deem most logical, efficient and suitable for my purposes. Readers are welcome to adopt any or all the ideas here for their personal use for free, but obviously need to conduct their own research and due diligence. Implementation will be at their own risk. They are not to use my design for commercial gain. This article can be freely copied and distributed ad infinitum for private use.

The first and most important key component of the offgrid tiny house in my view is this one:

The urine separating composting toilet:

There is a “yuck” factor among the uninitiated who imagine that a composting toilet located within a tiny house will result in terrible smells permeating the entire dwelling. This is completely untrue with regard to the modern well designed urine separating composting toilet. The “Nature’s Head” model designed for boats and caravans works very well. Other brands/models with similar features may work just as well. The “major” lifestyle modification required? Males must sit down when they pee. Get over it guys.

Top priority is the sanitary processing of human waste. The standard centralised flush sewage system has been immensely successful in this regard and any transition to a different method must be at least as hygienic, to ensure health safety.

Features of this composting toilet:

Separation of liquid from solid waste is key. Old designs which mix urine and faeces in one chamber generate foul smelling pathogenic anaerobic bacteria, due to decomposition in an unaerated, liquid medium with a low carbon and high nitrogen mix (this can be useful if the intent is to harvest methane in a biodigester, but that is beyond the scope of this article). The simple act of diverting the urine away is revolutionary. Faeces and toilet paper are deposited in a “solids” bin, previously activated by peat moss or coconut coir. Immediately after deposition, the mixture is churned by a turning handle, then sawdust or wood shavings (preferably mixed with wood ash to reduce clumping and to aid smell neutralisation) are sprinkled on top, to seal off smells and increase the carbon content. A high carbon to nitrogen content promotes aerobic over anaerobic organisms. Continuous exhaust ventilation by an ultralow energy (computer type) fan promotes aeration and expulsion of odour to the exterior. A double lid system further ensures no smells escape into the toilet cubicle at all. If tiny fruit/vinegar flies inadvertently enter the system they can be controlled by adding diatomaceous earth.
Urine may be collected in a bottle or drained away. On the rare occasion odour occurs, this can be abolished by sprinkling sugar in the bottle. When the tiny house is permanently sited, the urine tube can be connected directly to the gray water piping for immediate drainage to the exterior, perhaps to a gravel bed. Ideally however gray water should be biologically processed in a reed bed then used to irrigate plants. Urine, being nitrogen and phosphate rich, is an immensely valuable fertiliser and should not be wasted.
High volume use is not a problem. Even though the solids bin looks small it has ample capacity for continous use by a couple, especially because no liquid is stored within and the faeces compacts down as it decomposes. After 2-3 months as the “active” solids bin (bin 1) fills, it is replaced by an empty bin (bin 2). Bin 1 is covered by a lid with a vent and is put aside (outside the tiny house, say, in the shed) to quietly continue composting,. If bin 2 fills up after a couple of months but bin 1 has not completed its composting duration (at least a year) then waste from bin 1 (now quite innocous with an earthy consistency and odour), is tranfered to a heavy duty rip-proof waterproof bag and allowed to continue composting. Bin 1 and bin 2 are then swapped. Composted waste more than a year old can be used to fertilise plants eg fruit trees but never applied directly to edible crops eg the veggie patch. The only limitation to the volume of usage is the number of heavy duty bags available (high quality bags must be obtained which can be reused).
Being a non-flush toilet, fresh water savings are immense. Standard “water saving” flush toilets use up to 6 litres for a half flush and around 9 litres for a full flush, valuable high quality fresh water being discarded down the sewer. In the case of a urine separating composting toilet, if flecks of faeces fall on the rim of the solids aperture, they are easily dispatched by a spray of fresh water with a water pistol, no more than 100ml per use. Some amount of fresh water in the solids bin is helpful to enable a slightly moist environment for biodegradation.
Warming the solids bin. This last point is one I am personally addressing by a method not mentioned by the toilet manufacturers nor councils as far as I am aware. Aerobic decomposition of faeces proceeeds much faster at higher temperatures. Some systems (eg certain SunMar models) use electrical heating elements which may consume 100 Watts, a huge drain on one’s precious electrical resource and completely unviable for the offgrid low energy system. Substantial heat is generated by the decomposition process itself and the slightly insulating sawdust/wood ash layer sprinkled on top helps retain some heat. Nevertheless the process may be impaired in a cold climate especially in winter. One way to overcome this is to configure your toilet cubicle such that the solids bin is directly heated by the sun’s rays through a large double glazed window. Configuring your toilet cubicle as a greenhouse, so to speak5. This mandates that the cubicle be sited on the North side of your tiny house in the Southern hemisphere (South side if you live in the Northern hemisphere). Obviously you will install a retractable opaque screen inside the window, deployed during toilet use.

Solar principles:

It is expected the house will be moved very rarely and will be stationary almost all the time. When parked long term, weight should be taken off the tyres by placing multiple jackstands under the chassis. If the wheels are removed, Council will regard it as a fixed dwelling, subject to all Council regulations and approvals, hence leave the wheels on. Footings can be concreted into the ground near the corners, with anchor points to chain the chassis down and render the structure cyclone resistant.

Sited on a fixed location, the design can and should incorporate solar principles. Orientation of the broadside of the house toward the sun is key, North facing if you live in the Southern hemisphere and South facing if you live in the Northern hemisphere. Hence my design will have to be laterally inverted for Northerners (unless you like the evening rather than morning sun in your lounge).

It is important to have a tree free margin around the home for many reasons. Shading will defeat the aims of passive solar heating6 and reduce insolation for your PV panels and evacuated tube array. Overhanging branches can pose a risk of deadfall damage. Birds perched on the branches may leave droppings which enter your rainwater system. Leaves falling on your roof and sliding into your gutter may clog your rainwater collection system and promote bacterial contamination. Perhaps most crucial of all in the Australian context, nearby trees may pose a high risk of bushfire damage in the summer.

The three main aspects of passive solar heating are high insulation, large double glazed windows and thermal mass within the house. Extreme passive solar house designs in Scandinavia and Canada demand near airtight sealing to prevent hot air escaping and cold air entering – which will result in suffocation unless there is also heat recovery ventilation (which requires energy). Annoying condensation also occurs without adequate ventilation. We will not delve into such an extreme design here.

Traditional passive solar houses have depended on concrete floor slabs for thermal mass, which is obviously not feasible for a mobile house on a chassis with limited weight capacity. Furthermore, copious use of concrete, with its high embodied energy and carbon emissions during manufacture, may be anathema to the readers of this article. The thermal mass used in this design takes the form of water contained within the internal tanks of the house. Any of you who have a greenhouse with a huge tub of water sitting in the centre will appreciate this feature. Optimally the water tanks will be made of stainless steel (rather than, say, fibreglass) and painted matt black to facilitate rapid transfer of heat to and from the air of the cabin. The lounge seats will be located over the tanks but no weight will be borne on top of the tanks. The lounge base will consist of upright posts supporting the seats, but this base will have no side panelling, to allow direct contact between the walls of the steel tanks and the atmosphere of the house.

Obviously when the house is towed, the tanks should be empty.

Electrical system:

A 24V DC system is the most efficient for this size of dwelling and avoids excessive complexity. It is best to source as many appliances as possible which run directly off 24V DC, in particular the fridge/freezer which ideally should use an ultra efficient Danfoss type compressor. The market for such appliances is however much smaller than the mains voltage AC appliance market and you will still need a pure sine wave inverter (rated at, say, 3kW) to intermittently power certain other appliances eg washing machine, home theatre system etc. Use of portable electronic devices (smart phone, tablet and laptop computer – which, with a USB tuner can double as a TV) is encouraged as they consume little energy. Adapters to convert 24V DC to the charging voltages of these mobile devices are readily available.

These days, very few new home occupants bother with fixed telephone lines because mobile phones adequately meet their communication needs and the declining cost of mobile broadband internet access enables most web based needs to be met.

Some may advocate a 12V DC system because more 12V DC appliances are available on the market than those that run on 24V DC, however for a 12V DC system, heat energy losses in wires longer than the length of a car will be excessive unless you resort to expensive and unwieldly thick cables.

Some may advocate a system where all appliances are run off mains voltage AC, fed from a central inverter which is in turn fed from the batteries, a DC source. Even though inverters these days are fairly reliable with good longevity, the central inverter powering everything does represent a single point of weakness in the system, failure of which will render the entire household paralysed. Furthermore there is continuous drain of power from the inverter in the form of heat loss, even when all other appliances are off. Additionally, AC appliances themselves tend to be ultimately DC powered (AC power goes into the device, eg an LED light, then is rectified to DC, which then powers the light). The rectifier is another source of energy loss (as heat) and another layer for potential failure (if it fails, the whole appliance fails, even if the LED is still perfectly functional).

Power sources and batteries:

By far the most important source of power will be photovoltaic panels which may be placed on the roof or ground (higher risk of shading if located on the ground but easier to clean, adjust and if necessary fold and pack away should a storm threaten).

My preferred specifications are:

PV panels: 1kW in total (perhaps four 250W@24V panels)

Deep cycle7 lead acid batteries: 520Ah@24V in total (two separate sets of two 260Ah@12V batteries connected in series). AGM is preferable if you can afford it.8

The lead-acid capacities cited above are around 3 to 4 times that of most sailboat electrical systems. Standard caravans tend to have only one 100Ah@12V battery (less than one tenth of this system) as they are meant to be continuously recharged by the electrical system of the towing vehicle or a mains supply. The system specified here should suit the needs of any cautious users, apart from those enduring the prolonged darkness of winter at very high latitudes. The only devices with continuous drain are the fridge/freezer (however there will be minimal electrical drain in deep winter, especially if the fridge is relocated outdoors under cover) and the composting toilet fan (the latter consuming next to nothing). The washing machine will consume the greatest power intermittently. However if only used once or twice per week and only during sunny days, it should not significantly deplete the batteries. Obviously you should choose a front loading machine with the best energy and water savings ratings.

Rooftop PV panels can be angled during the Spring equinox to suit the summer sun and during the Autumn equinox to suit the winter sun. Angling them more frequently may not be worth the hassle unless they are ground based. MPPT voltage regulators/chargers are about 25% more efficient than PWM chargers but significantly costlier. I intend to use 40Amp smart MPPT chargers, one for each battery bank and have personally used the “Tracer” brand which has also been described in ReNew magazine. I used it for a 12V system although it can “autosense” if the system is 12V or 24V. Some chargers are falsely advertised as MPPT but are actually PWM. Try to find reviews on the web of the brand and model that you intend to purchase, buyer beware.

Ideally the negative terminals of each battery bank should be grounded.

Low voltage cutoff devices between the batteries and the central battery switchboard/bus will help prevent inadvertent overdischarge damage of the batteries.

Top-up charging after several overcast days may require use of a diesel or petrol generator (hopefully only on very rare occasions) however if a marine type 24V DC microwind turbine is incorporated into the system9, it is very unlikely top-up charging using fossil fuels will ever be needed, unless your location is devoid of wind.

Shallow cyclic draining of your battery system should extend its life well beyond ten years. Abuse will kill it within two years.

If one has access to a a stream which never runs dry, then a microhydro system providing a continuous electrical supply will be more than sufficient to run your space heating, electric hot water heating, a microwave oven, electric toaster, electric kettle and induction cooktop10. In the absence of this rare luxury however, it seldom makes sense to convert precious electrical energy to heat. Becoming dependent on microhydropower can be a problem though. Such a mechanical system is less robust and less dependable than PV panels. Breakdown of the microhydrosystem will be much more disruptive to the lifestyle of the inhabitant who is used to a surfeit of continuous power.

Fresh water usage:

Only one raingutter at the low edge of the roof is needed as the longitudinal ridges and troughs of the corrugated roof will direct rainwater flow accordingly. The “first flush” system will eliminate gross contaminants. The area of the roof and the size of the internal watertanks may or may not provide sufficient fresh water for the inhabitants, depending on how the water is consumed and the amount of local rainfall. An additional 2000 litre external rainwater tank will be useful and any alternative backup sources of fresh water eg dam, streams, springs, bore water etc will always be welcome. Your external shed (which should have a much larger roof area, being a communal building) should also have the largest feasible rainwater tanks attached, perhaps 40,000 litres, which will be needed for permaculture purposes. Australian council regulations specify that for offgrid properties at least 10,000 litres must be preserved for firefighting in a separate tank. In some council areas the 10,000 litres can be preserved at the bottom of the drinking water tank by having the off take for drinking above the preservation level.

The first principle must be to reduce consumption. Huge water saving (compared with a standard dwelling) will already have been accrued by adoption of the non-flush composting toilet.

More water conservation can be achieved by one’s method of washing. Lazing for half an hour under the shower is obviously not an option. Ever since the severe drought affecting Brisbane some years ago, I have adopted a method which uses less than 3 litres for a complete, thorough hair and body wash. The key item is a wash cloth about a fifth the size of a bath towel. The hair is wet first, then thoroughly scrubbed with soap or shampoo, then rinsed, the soapy water from the hair now wetting the entire body. The wash cloth is now wet and impregnated with soap and the whole body is thoroughly scrubbed with this cloth. The cloth is wet with fresh water again and the body is scrubbed again. This can be done a third time with further dilution of the soap. Final rinse from the shower over the hair and whole body eliminates any soapy residue. Less than 3 litres in total easily!

What if the first flow of water from the shower is uncomfortably cold? Simply collect the first flow cold water in a bucket while the tap is in “full hot” position till the water becomes warm, then turn the tap to the warm setting for your body wash. Put the initial cold water in the bucket aside to use for washing dishes later. Due to the close proximity of the hot water cylinder to the shower compartment in this design, there will be very little time lag till you receive hot shower water anyway, so this may not actually be an issue.

Drinking water: generations of rural Australians have lived healthy lives drinking unfiltered water directly from their rainwater tanks, however I personally prefer to filter tank water before drinking. Some ceramic filter systems are designed to last many years, the filter being “recharged” by scraping material off the ceramic filter every so often. Some may wish to boil their drinking water if there is concern of contamination from the roof or tank. I have personally used diluted bleach to “disinfect” water tanks previously, which kills most but not all microorganisms.

Gray water: Effluent from the kitchen, bathroom (including urine) and washing machine cannot be stored in a tank without rapidly turning manky and should be immediately drained externally. During initial setup of your tiny house, the gray water can be drained into a gravel pit but ideally in the long term, the waste water “experts”11 recommend draining gray water to an open reed bed for bioprocessing, then sent onwards to irrigate plants in a permaculture enclosure or greenhouse. Gray water is a valuable resource which should not be wasted. Low phosphate detergents and soaps with no additional chemicals (eg perfumes) should be chosen.

Solar hot water (evacuated tube) system:

In high latitudes in winter, the evacuated tube system is more efficient than a flat panel system and can cope with frost levels down to minus 20 degrees C. This will obviously only be deployed after the house has been transported to its permanent destination as the tubes are fragile and easily broken during transportation. Rather than locate the heavy hot water cylinder atop the tube array, which may require rooftop reinforcement, it is best to keep all heavy items low in the house, to ensure a low centre of gravity and improve stablility, which is important when encountering strong winds.

The tubes are best permanently angled steeply to suit the winter sun to prevent them overheating in summer. In locations with excessive insolation eg the outback or desert, tubes can overheat and explode and a flat panel system may be more suited there. With exponential global warming, living in the outback or desert, even if you have a borehole with limitless water, is probablly inadvisable. Even if you can survive the heatwaves by retreating to a hole in the ground, those heatwaves will devastate your crops and livestock.

Circulation of the water may be best achieved by a pump system that I have personal experience with (albeit a flat panel system: the “Heliatos”): A small 10W photovoltaic panel is mounted adjacent to the evacuated tube array. This PV panel is dedicated to run a small electric pump which is active only when the sun shines sufficiently. Water is pumped from the cold water tanks to the evacuated tube array then to the hot water cylinder. When the latter is full, the water keeps circulating between tubes and cylinder. When the sun goes down the pump stops and hot water remains stored in the cylinder. I am unaware if a thermosiphon system which does not require an electric pump has been invented (and proven to be reliable). If so, that would be a great option.

I have no plans for a “boost” system with supplementary LPG, because evacuated tubes work well even on semi-overcast days and the idea is to reduce complexity and reduce use of fossil fuels. Furthermore extra hot water can always be prepared atop the wood stove if there have been extremely overcast days.

LPG stove and wood stove/heater:

Even if/when the global economy collapses down to a tenth of its present state, in between episodes of turmoil we should still be able to obtain LPG or CNG cylinders for the next 15 years or so. Conventional gas (not shale gas or coal seam gas) is the least CO2 emitting of the fossil fuels. An LPG cooking system is therefore included in this design. However there is an important space adjacent to the LPG stove dedicated to a mini wood stove, which will be used to keep the cabin warm on winter evenings if the “greenhouse” heat from the water tanks has depleted after an overcast day. Just as greenhouse solar heat can be transferred to the water tanks in the day, heat from the wood stove can also be transferred to the water tanks at night and enable residual cabin warmth after the fire is out.

Safety considerations are vital. Apart from designing the setup such that heat from the stove can never ignite anything indoors (eg heatproof tiles under and around the stove, safety sleeve around flue as it passes through the roof etc), it is essential to ensure there is never any risk of oxygen depletion or CO2 poisoning within the cabin. External intake of air into the combustion chamber will prevent the former and an airtight vertical flue will prevent the latter. If there is risk the flue may serve as a lightning conductor, it is simple to ground it externally by means of a broad copper strip. Alternatively you may wish to install a dedicated lightning rod, especially if you also have a TV aerial which may attract lightning as well.

Of particular interest is the “rocket” wood stove/heater. This was originally designed to benefit people in the third world by reducing harmful smoke emissions and increasing combustion efficiency (it uses less than a quarter the amount of wood of a conventional fire). This brilliant device can help save our lungs and our forests. Unfortunately at this time no rocket stove model is certified for indoor use by councils or the EPA and can only be adopted at individual risk.

The multipurpose lounge/dining/study/entertainment area:

The plan views of the lounge shown above are self explanatory. The standard cushion sizes are based on a particular “Ikea” outdoor cushion type and extra cushion covers are therefore easily and affordably obtainable, however the reader will obviously have their own cushion preferences. The back cushions, being vertical, do not allow for lumbar curves, hence scatter cushions will be necessary which, with fresh covers, can double as pillows for the guest(s).

The table, with folding side flaps and detachable legs, has to be custom made and will have two heights:

long table legs for dining table height allowing ample clearance above knees, when used for dining or study purposes
short table legs, where the table surface is below that of the seats such that when cushions are placed on the table top, their surface is flush with the seat cushions and a double bed is created.

The lounge can be converted into a home theatre by appropriate placing of retractable projection screen, LED projector, bluray player (or laptop computer) and speaker system.

Other design comments

Windows and doors:

The reader may have noted my obsession for numerous windows and transparent doors. Effective ways to prevent claustraphobia in a tiny dwelling are:

to ensure that you can enjoy external panoramic views through many large windows
to ensure that plenty of light streams in during the day and
to use light coloured walls

Excessive direct sunlight through the North facing windows can be controlled by external awnings and/or by internal pulldown blockout screens (the former being much more effective). Abundant opening windows allow for cross ventilation on hot days.

Full-width staircase along end wall (rather than ladder) to access loft:

This is a unique configuration as far as I am aware (although I have seen designs with staircases along the long wall of the tiny house, or transversely half-width across the mid section). To me, the novelty of a ladder wears thin after a couple of uses and I much prefer the convenience of simply walking up broad steps. The substantial area under the steps must not be wasted and is used to house the washing machine, hot water cylinder and shelving for pantry items. To maximise under-stair space, some of the steps are supported by vertical posts suspended from a horizontal structural beam (the vertical posts double as safety rails).

Slots for kitchen waste (for composting) and other waste (for recycling or burning):

Here is a simple system adapted from a boat:

Al fresco enjoyment:

A timber deck can be built on the sun facing side, under a retractable awning.

Construction materials:

Construction materials used must be the choice of the owner (who may leave it up to the builder, if they are not the same person). Needless to say, quality components must be chosen for longevity, durability, strength and the structural flexibility to cope with road journeys. Optimal strength to weight ratio must be considered, both for the sake of towing the tiny house, as well as avoiding excessive long term load on the chassis, even when stationary. Caravan windows tend to be double layered acrylic rather than double glazed glass, for good reasons. It may be advisable to build the house to basic lockup stage only, then transport it to the final destination as an empty shell, where it will be properly fitted out (heavy batteries, washing machine, fridge etc only installed at final location).

Those of you who may know house builders may have access to the excess offcuts from their building sites. Such high quality, brand new but “surplus” offcuts may be sufficient to construct even two or three tiny houses, material which would otherwise be discarded.

The tiny house community:

Below is one possible layout for a tiny house community:

Residents will come together frequently for many reasons: to grow crops and care for livestock in the common permaculture enclosure, to provide mutual help for maintenance and repairs, to meet and decide on community matters, for entertainment, companionship and for celebratory meals. It is helpful however for participants to have their own private dwellings that they can retreat to in the evenings, rather than be in everyone’s “hair” 24/7 if they all lived in a single large communal dwelling. Furthermore separate dwellings ensure that residents take responsibility for their own resource consumption and will face the consequences of their own profligacy and carelessness. For example if one irresponsible individual in a large communal household depletes the cooking gas, depletes the batteries by leaving appliances on, or depletes the water supply, this affects everyone and could lead to disaster and major conflict. Separate tiny houses enable resilience and if one household inadvertently faces a problem such as water depletion from a ruptured pipe, the other households will remain completely unaffected and can help with repairs and support the household facing difficulty.

Potential criticisms:

I am not a technocornucopian. I view centrally controlled utilities (particularly “big” electricity eg nuclear fission or coal) as doomed in the long term (possibly even short term). On the other hand I can imagine some criticisms from “hard core hairshirt collapsitarians” who may object to my advocacy of low energy, distributed technologies. Whereas I do view the eventual collapse of industrial society as inevitable, the process is likely to be stuttering (short of global nuclear war). As long as we are able to utilise LED lights, fridges and washing machines etc with minimal carbon emissions, it will be foolish not to do so. Going cold turkey is always more painful and may be potentially fatal, compared with gently weaning ourselves off our industrial/fossil fuel addiction and I advocate the latter. Survival is certainly more likely with a soft landing than a hard one.

Geoffrey Chia, February 2015

Acknowledgements:

Many thanks to the Architects: Will Gray for drafting the beautiful architectural diagrams (I made some crude alterations, also the ugly cartoonish diagrams are mine), Lara Nobel who has patiently and generously offered immense help over the past couple of years with regard to passive-solar off-grid cottage and tiny house concepts and designs (as well as physical help carrying materials and installing composting toilet and solar battery systems) and Andrew Carter for thoughtful ideas and practical help.

Also thanks to Dr Doone Wyborn, Geologist, Engineer and energy expert and Dr Jane O’Sullivan, Agricultural Scientist, for their helpful critiques and corrections regarding this article.

All remaining errors in this article are the sole responsibility of the author.

Footnotes:

No risk of electrocution with low voltage DC, however there is always a risk of short circuits and fires, hence robust connections and abundant safety fuses are always required.
An 8.0m long and 4.3m high (throughout the entire length) tiny house with double loft design can comfortably accommodate a couple with two children (or two couples). Access to the second loft will have to be by ladder rather than a second set of space consuming stairs. A larger family (a couple with up to six children) can build two tiny houses which will still cost far less then half of a standard small house, even using the best quality materials.
Mass adoption of tiny houses will result in the councils and local utilities going bankrupt from lack of revenue, which is why in the near future governments may outlaw or over-regulate them. Hence it is best to get in now under the radar.
Some may cite Jevon’s paradox as an argument, to which I reply: Jevon’s paradox is not applicable to those of us determined to reduce consumption. It is not some inviolable natural law but a historical observation about the behaviour of certain people, behaviour which can and will inevitably change. Jevon himself was obsessed with the idea that economic cycles coincided with sunspot cycles and when this was disproved, he insisted that the astronomers had got their data wrong. If reality did not conform to his view then he insisted that reality must be wrong. He was a pioneer of trying to quantify economics mathematically, assuming perfectly free markets, perfectly free information and rational participants. History has proven such assumptions to be complete bunkum. Nevertheless many neoclassical economists still try to promote their field as a science, which it most certainly is not and continue to teach such rubbish in universities.
Paraphrased question from Dr Jane O’Sullivan: Why turn the entire toilet cubicle, rather than the solids bin itself, into a “greenhouse”? Wouldn’t it be better just to have black coloured thermal mass on the outside of the bin? Or just insulate the bin, to preserve the heat it generates itself? My answer: On another project where the solids bin is located in a separate chamber under the toilet cubicle, I am indeed turning that chamber alone (which has thermal mass within the black coloured chamber walls) into a minigreenhouse. Due to the design of the caravan model of the Nature’s Head toilet, this is not possible for the tiny house project. Insulating the bin won’t work because the ventilating fan ensures that air in the bin is constantly changed, which will rapidly dissipate any heat buildup in the bin. However, if the air of the toilet cubicle is heated up and that is drawn into the bin for ventilation (then expelled to the exterior), that should keep the composting temperature several degrees higher than it would otherwise be (compared with if external cold air is drawn in the bin then expelled).
The exception being if you live in a high latitude and have a deciduous trees in front of your sun-facing windows, hence providing shade in summer. These trees will shed their leaves in autumn and allow the winter sunlight in, enabling passive solar heating.
Ordinary car/truck engine starting lead-acid batteries are not suitable, make sure they are deep cycle batteries.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are continuing to reduce in price and may be the best option soon. It is important to only shallowly discharge lead-acid batteries for the sake of longevity (discharge by not more than 30% on most days, occasionally discharge by 50%, where the 24 volt system will show 24 volts at rest). Lithium iron phosphate batteries can cope with 90% discharge every day. Thus smaller amp hour storage is required. “LiFe” batteries are much lighter and great for mobile dwellings where weight may be an issue eg catamarans. However they require an electronic battery management system to ensure proper voltage balance between batteries, which is an additional layer of complexity.
Even if the wind turbine produces high voltage alternating current at source, which is then rectified to DC after the dump load resistor, I have been advised that these AC turbines are specifically designed to ultimately feed either only 24V or 12V DC systems and the two types of turbine are mutually exclusive and not interchangeable. The advantage of high voltage AC being produced at the turbine means that thin cables can be led long distances from the wind tower to the point of use without significant energy loss before being rectified to low voltage DC.
My tiny house kitchen will not include any of these heat producing electrical appliances as I have no access to microhydro.
At any rate, the “experts” approved by the Council I have been dealing with. On the other hand I have been informed that nitrates denature quickly and rapid application to crops is preferable.

Posted in Home | Tagged Community, Permaculture, Sustainability, Tiny Houses

Doctors & Scientists for Sustainability & Social Justice

Published January 20, 2015 | By Guest Author

Off the keyboard of Dr. Geoffrey Chia

Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 20, 2015

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

The Diner welcomes Dr. Geoffrey Chia as a Guest Author, writing on Sustainability issues from the perspective of a Cardiologist-Physician in Brisbane, Australia.Geoff has published numerous articles in the past on Nature Bats Last, and in addition ran the discussion group D3SJ.org from 2006-2013.First up here, an Open Letter to the former members of D3SJ.org, followed by his article Advice for Sustainability Activists in 2015. It’s another take on concepts we explore on the Diner, and Tom Lewis explores on the Daily Impact. Not enough voices saying this yet though, and I will publish every last one of them that has the gist of this correct, which Dr. Chia does.We hope to hear more from him on the Diner as well, but this one is a good introduction to a voice that has been crying in the wilderness for a long time, before I even woke up to this shitstorm. He is worth listening to.RE

Dear former D3SJers,

Below is my article “advice for sustainability activists in 2015”. Feel free to forward this email to everyone ad infinitum. After writing my article, I discovered this interview with Thomas Lewis, a journalist with many decades experience investigating and reporting environmental issues, who came to the same conclusion:
https://soundcloud.com/doomstead-diner/collapse-cafe-thomas-lewis

Here is a podcast by financial guru Richard Martin http://thewakeupcall.podbean.com/e/spreading-fear-or-providing-information-122214/

He sounds the alarm about the fraudulent and precarious nature of the global financial system. In particular he explains the bogus nature of the shale oil derivatives and associated junk bonds (collapse of which may well trigger the next, more catastrophic GFC). He is an expert in financial matters but unfortunately does not understand peak oil.

You may need to read the following a few times to fully comprehend the various machinations taking place today:

Current low oil prices are a result of demand destruction (slowing of growth in China + recession/depression everywhere else in the world), combined with the Saudis insanely continuing to pump their oil at full throttle (they are well down the slope past peak oil, but they still have the largest reserves in the world). Such Saudi behaviour defies logic in a rational market, but the political motives are clear (which the Saudis devised in conjunction with John Kerry in September last year) http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/16/the-oil-coup/

Predatory low oil pricing is now decimating the Iranian and Russian economies* and could even cause them to crash, an outcome greatly desired by the US who so far have been singularly impotent in forcing either regime to toe the US line. As for the Sunni Saudis, they regard Shia Iran as their heretical enemy and Russia as a godless Satan. This strategy, if drawn out, will also cause collateral damage to the US shale oil industry, however that was doomed anyway from the start. http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/nov/09/us-iran-russia-oil-prices-shale In the short term, Bakken/Eagle Ford will continue pumping like crazy, even if no profit is made, as they are riding on the momentum from old investments (which will never see a long term return**). They need to maintain the illusion of ongoing viability, despite their lousy EROEI, to prop up their share prices and recruit more suckers investors. Furthermore Obama, as directed by his masters (the usual wunch of bankers) has now removed legal protection of public savings from oil derivative fraud (akin to the US government previously repealing Glass-Steagall) which means that if the oil derivatives collapse, the “too big to fail” banks will once again be bailed out by public funds obtained from taxes on the dying middle class and more quantitative easing (AKA printing funny money). Savings accounts will not be safe. Anyone else, everywhere else, who has been stupid enough to invest in the US sharemarket (perhaps your superannuation fund managers?) can kiss their investments goodbye.

What would you do if you were Russian or Iranian? Grit your teeth and ride things out till the oil price inevitably rises again and you can once more make a profit, then trade your oil in currency other than the US dollar (or use barter arrangements eg X barrels of oil for Y number of Chinese solar PV panels). Elimination of the greenback petrodollar is guaranteed to cause the collapse of the US economy. If Iran and Russia are however blocked in their attempts to recover from their own economic collapse and escape the petrodollar, they can always resort to the “continuation of policy by other means” to paraphrase von Clausewitz. If my country is imploding and the Saudis are to blame, I may as well lob a missile into Riyadh, as I have nothing to lose. And so the great game continues.

Meanwhile the dumb sheeple are blissfully pumping cheap oil at the bowsers to fill their monstrous SUVs but have no clue as to what is going on. What was Mr T’s famous catchphrase again?

Brand New Year, same old dirty tricks. Hope you have a happy one anyway.

Regards

Geoff Chia

*Iranian and Russian breakeven oil production costs are substantially higher than Saudi costs. Low oil prices cause the Iran and Russia economies to bleed money. Saudis can even price their oil below Saudi production costs for a while, due to their huge financial reserves.

**big players such as Shell and Sumitomo were well aware of the bogus accounting of shale oil returns, which is why they pulled out. Other players were captured by hubris and irrational exuberance akin to tulip mania. Money flooded into shale oil junk bonds as a result of the US Reserve Bank’s ZIRP, but the chickens will be coming to home to roost soon.

ADVICE FOR SUSTAINABILITY ACTIVISTS IN 2015

RATIONALE

First and foremost, it is essential to understand and accept that the massive die-off of the majority of humanity (indeed, the majority of all species) is guaranteed and inevitable over the next few decades, no matter what you or anyone else does, even if all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions were to cease immediately. Get over it. Stop wasting your precious time and energy trying to influence National¹ or International policies. Even if you succeed in turning society around right now, we are well past the point that it will make any difference whatsoever. Runaway destruction of our ecosystems has spiralled out of control and we have already fallen off the cliff. In 2012, I myself abandoned the conceit and delusion that I could “save the world”, when the scientific evidence for the irreversible decompensation of our global ecosphere became overwhelming and indisputable. The mainstream media paint a false picture to the sheeple to keep them subdued and distracted, to avoid provoking mass panic. This article is meant for intelligent people capable of objective, reality-based thinking. The only thing you can do now that will make any difference, is that which lies within your own individual control. It is to determine your own personal fate.
A small proportion of the population will be able to survive, even thrive, during and after the coming collapse. Who will they be? Those who prepare now and plan ahead will have the best chance. You must therefore seize your opportunity while there is still time, before the complete meltdown of this fraudulently propped-up global financial scam wipes out your bank balance, before economic collapse triggers the eruption of extremists in your neighbourhood (just as the Great Depression led to Nazism, the Greek implosion to Golden Dawn and the Syrian collapse to ISIS) and before all your options are lost. It is imperative you discuss with and advise people about the measures needed now, so that the tiny handful who are receptive to this message can mitigate against future hardships and horrors. If you fail to take action now and remain inert and paralysed like a stunned mullet, you are passively submitting to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune and will very likely die horribly.
It is not selfish to try to save yourself and your loved ones, while the rest of humanity perish. There is nothing noble about you going down in flames alongside the clueless sheeple and those denialists who reviled you in the past for being “alarmist”. Indeed it will be stupid and pointless for you to join them. They had their chance, refused to listen and will reap what they sowed. The people we should mourn are those who have historically contributed little to this global catastrophe, but who will suffer the most eg subsistence farmers in Bangladesh or Africa.
The actions you must take to survive the great unraveling of industrial civilisation actually correspond exactly with the ethical actions you should take anyway to set a good example to others. The best way to convince others is not by words, but by deeds. To serve as a role model, to practice what you preach. There is no point campaigning to shut down coal fired power stations unless you first show others how they can live well without using coal fired power. Your actions will consist of drastically reducing your ecological footprint, liberating yourself from a corrupt, rapacious and destructive capitalist system and pursuing a meaningful and joyful life in a cooperative community. Talk less and do more.
Do not get bogged down by the proponents of near term human extinction. They are a nihilistic cult with nothing to offer but inertia, hopelessness, misery and despair, despite their attempts to put a positive spin on suicide. Even if NTHE ultimately does occur, it still remains eminently worthwhile at this time for you to aim for the best quality, longest duration lifespan you can possibly achieve. For the patient with terminal cancer, the ethical physician must endeavour to minimise their suffering and maximise the quality and duration of their remaining life. As long as you are not in excruciating pain or in unremitting distress, your survival instinct will dictate that you keep on keeping on. Humanity’s best strategy to avoid extinction is not by attempting to preserve the cities nor prolong industrial civilisation (which is precisely what is destroying our living planet) but by establishing a multitude of self sufficient off-grid communities all around the world. All it takes to avoid NTHE is for just one community to succeed in the long term. By saving yourself you could well be saving humanity as a species.

ACTIONS YOU NEED TO TAKE NOW (IF NOT YESTERDAY) :

Try to expand your social network. Seek out like minded individuals you can trust, who are interested in pursuing an ethical sustainable lifestyle.
Withdraw your money from the Ponzi scheme known as the Sharemarket. Get rid of debt. Convert your cyberwealth into assets of real world value. Lack of finances is not necessarily an impediment to escaping the corrupt mainstream establishment. Practical knowledge, experience and abilities (carpentry, metalwork, plumbing, electrical, agricultural skills etc) will be in great demand, however simply possessing good common sense, physical health and a willingness to learn and contribute are the most important assets, which you can offer to homestead planners who will be keen to snap you up. The most precious commodities of the future will not be gold, silver or diamonds (which the wise will regard with disdain) but the qualities of trustworthiness, reliability and diligence. These are the riches of the future which will bind individuals and communities together.
Purchase suitable land in a remote² location with reliable fresh water supplies, as little affected by the future projections of climate change as possible, on which to establish your permaculture homestead.
Construct one or more large lockup sheds (with attached large rainwater tanks), in which you can store agricultural tools, fertiliser, water purifying equipment, emergency food supplies and other essential startup items. One or more containers placed there will also be useful, if you can arrange that. When you ultimately empty out your large shed of its contents, it can be used as multipurpose building eg workshop, community hall etc.
It may be necessary to erect a permaculture enclosure to protect your crops from being consumed by the local wildlife.
Participants must construct their dwellings. These must be designed to be off-grid ie. completely independent of centrally controlled electrical, water and sewage utilities. Time, money and ethical considerations may preclude the construction of conventional concrete and steel buildings. Restrictive and backward codes of the local council may prevent you from building cheap, innovative dwellings such as Earthships (which are labour intensive and take a long time to build anyway). One way to bypass these obstacles is to construct tiny houses on wheels³. They cost less than 20% of a standard house, can be built to passive solar principles (and incorporate the essential wood stove/heater) and can provide all your usual creature comforts and amenities (even a home movie theatre) albeit in a smaller space. Furthermore they can be custom built by you right now, right where you live, then towed to your homestead later. Timing of the move is crucial and must obviously be done before the collapse of the current infrastructure leads to fuel scarcity and blockade of the highways. If time becomes very short, you can purchase a standard caravan immediately, although they are generally designed to be plugged into the grid and will not be ideal to live in long term (although much better than a tent).
Security issues for your community may be the most fraught and difficult to work out. In the USA where guns proliferate, paranoia leads to the accumulation of weapons and fearful continuous surveillance. My advice to Americans is to move to Alaska, Washington State or Oregon. Even better if you can, is to emigrate to NZ, Canada or southern Chile (the latter only if you are a fluent Spanish speaker) which probably has the best long term prospects of all. In Oz, I personally favour remoteness, obscurity and good relations with your neighbours as the best means of protection⁴. Dogs on your property may help, but avoid aggressive breeds which may be a danger to children.
The above steps will not guarantee you a good outcome (nothing can) but will dramatically increase your chances of achieving a good outcome. At the very least, engaging in hopeful activity in the company of other good people will shield you from despair. Even if things don’t ultimately work out, at least you will go down fighting and in control of your own destiny, rather than be a passive lamb to the slaughter. Apart from good planning, the main factors which will determine whether your community succeeds or fails in the long term will be the quality of your participants⁵, your framework of governance⁶ and a good deal of luck.

Geoffrey Chia, January 2015

Footnotes:

Unless you live in NZ, which may be the only country in the world with any hope of saving the majority of its population. This is based on its favourable location and soils, low population density, high level of renewable energy infrastructure including electric railways and my belief (although I could be mistaken) that the majority of Kiwis are not certifiably insane (unlike the rest of the world where the inmates have taken over the asylum).
Well away from large cities which will be the “killing fields of the future”. Small towns in agricultural areas may potentially be viable.
Lara Nobel, a graduate architect now completing a building qualification, will be presenting this topic at the Queensland Skeptics meeting in Brisbane in March 2015. There is a wealth of information about tiny houses on the web.
In the future time of petroleum scarcity, the “marauding hordes” will not be able to invade you en masse if your homestead is more than one fuel tank away from a major city and they do not know your location. Good neighbours can provide advance notice if random dodgy strangers are seen making their way on foot through the countryside. As survivors, they will be resourceful. If they also turn out to be decent and hardworking, let them share in your homestead chores with a view to eventually joining up.
Every member must contribute. Psychopaths must be expelled. People steeped in non-evidence based bullshit (eg belief in homeopathy or that the MMR vaccine causes autism) must be excluded, because their forcefully held nonsensical and harmful ideologies will obstruct sensible decision making initiatives. People steeped in superstition eg belief in God, gods or ghosts must be excluded, because their delusions will distort rational thinking of impressionable young people and may pose a future risk of turning your community into a cult. The reason why this global human experiment is failing is because of idiocracy, ie. rule by idiots, who must be excluded from your community. The only hope for humanity is for sapient people to survive and populate future generations.
The basic principle being that decisions must be made on the basis of evidence, reason and fairness to confer the greatest amount of good to the greatest number of people in your community on a long term basis.

Geoffrey Chia is a Cardiologist/Physician based in Brisbane, Australia, who convened the group “Doctors and Scientists for Sustainability and Social Justice” from 2006 to 2013

Posted in Environment, Home | Tagged Collapse, Doctors, Preparation, Scientists, Social Justice, Sustainability

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