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2019 Collapse Survey: The 500 – Politics & Economics

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Published on The Doomstead Diner January 27, 2019

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

 

Notes from RE:

1- This installment of the survey uses the latest set of charts & graphs with 541 Respondents.  This is the set that respondents who left their email addys will receive in pdf document form around the end of January.  If you are interested in doing statistical aanlysis on this data and cross-correlating some of the questions, like breaking down the responses by age or income level or education level, contact me here on the Diner via the Contact Page.

2- Of the 3 parts to this series, this is the one which led some folks to consider it too Americentric, because of the questions on the Amerikan Political Clown Show.  However, even here this only makes up a few of the questions and most of them are generally applicable anywhere in the world.

No parts of this study may be used on commercial websites that use Advertising or sell Merchandise such as the Author's books, or which have Paywalls without the expressed consent of the Doomstead Diner and the Sustaining Universal Needs Foundation.  None of the charts and graphs may be altered in any way or the copyright and logos removed from those charts.

The Survey remains OPEN at this time.  Responses keep dribbling in and I don't want to leave anyone out of the final Tally.

Now, on to the charts from the survey.  For today, we look at the Political & Economic Questions.  I'll make a few brief comments beneath each chart.   For further analysis and discussion, visit the Survey Table inside the Diner.

 

Survey still OPEN

Survey now @ 636 Submissions

As you can readily see, if the whole country was composed of Kollapsniks, Trumpovetsky never would have been elected, and we wouldn't be in the pickle we are in now.   Some other kind of pickle likely, but not such a BIG PICKLE🥒 so fast!  Since they are better educated than average, most Kollapsniks easily saw through the lies that El Trumpo was pitching out on the campaign trail, so blatant and obvious it's hard to imagine how almost 50% of the population of the FSoA voted for him (he didn't win the popular vote).  However, if you ever sat in a cab and listened to Rush Limbaugh rant over the airwaves, you might have some clue as to how this occured.

Also obvious, the people who didn't vote for him in 2016 aren't going to vote for him in 2020, assuming the Repugnants are stupid enough to nominate him again, which they probably are.  The question here on this go-round is how many of those 14% "It Depends who runas against him" folks will find someone else to vote for this time around?  That of course depends on who the Demodopes finally nominate, which remains a big question mark.  Also who a 3rd Party Libertarian candidate might be.  If the Libertarians got Ron Paul to run on their ticket, this would totally suck the wind out of Donalditry's sails.  That however is an unlikely scenario at the moment.

Amongst Kollapsniks, Joe Biden seems the most likely to get the nomination as of now.  He has the Veep & Senate credentials and long years of political hacking under his belt.  However, he's also pretty old and likely doesn't hold much appeal for the new wave of younger voters becoming politically energized by their ever downward spiralling economic opportunities and upward spiralling college costs and student loans.  Coming in at #2 on the Hit Parade here is Beto O'Rourke, fresh of a narrow loss to Ted Cruz in the heavily Repugnant state of Texas.  Beto demonstrated amazing fundraising ability for that campaign, shattering all records.  He's got charisma and youthful vitality, and has been favorably compared to the heros of the Demodope Party even after 50 years, John & Robert Kennedy.  However, he is thin on Goobermint experience with only a couple of terms as a CONgress Critter from El Paso under his belt.  Liz Warren shows in 3rd Place in this survey, and will definitely capture the Wimmen's Vote in this horse race if she gets the nomination.  However, many people view her as "too liberal" to draw any support away from Trumpovetsky.  In 4th and out of the money so far is Bernie Sanders, who really should have had the nomination in 2016 if it hadn't been stolen by Killary Klinton.  He's got a big following still and also is a proven fundraiser.  Like Joe Biden though, he is getting long in the tooth, although he still seems to have a lot of energy for political fighting.

Joe Biden comes in again 1st for the one who would make the best POTUS if elected, with Liz Warren in 2nd this time and Bernie Sanders 3rd.  All 3 have Senatorial experience, which probably is why they get the nod     in this question.  Beto-O'Rourke comes in tied for 3rd with Bernie in a very tight race there.  One does have to remember in all of this though that so far Liz Warren is the only one who is a definite candidate, and also that a Dark Horse might emerge in the long run to the White House.

I put up this chart in the prior article on Demographics, but I thought it a good idea to repeat it here for reference purposes against the other political questions.  The same things remain true, Kollapsniks are migrating away from the traditional Repugnant & Demodope Parties and now identify themselves with other political self-definitions, generall more polarized and further to the Left or Right.  There are also an ever growing number of Fascists, Communists and Anarchist in the mix as the population becomes increasingly radicalized.

On this topic, the Economic issues come out in top place, and I agree with that.  Economic Collapse is the proximal problem faced everywhere these days and is what is driving all the political instability and increasing bellicosity pushing toward War to solve the problems, which it won't of course.  The Migration "crises" in the FSoA is a manufactured crisis by Trumpty-Dumpty to satisfy his legion of Deplorables who he promised a REALLY BIG WALL to, which he ain't gonna get.  They'll be lucky to appropriate enough money to maintain their current fencing around the major foot traffic migration border towns in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California.  El Trumpo needs this distraction though, so he keeps pumping it.

Out of the money in 4th Place is the ongoing Climate Crisis, which you wouldn't know if all you read is r/collapse where for those Doomers it's the #1 Problem because we're all gonna DIE when the Oceans drown all the coastal cities and all the farmland dries up to.  Both are problems of course, but neither one likely to happen next year, so it doesn't present a political crisis at the moment.

This statistic changed a lot over the first 300 or so submissons, edending on which website was dropping on the most submissions.  It got as high as 70% feeling the Repugnants would retain control over the Senate while The Burning Platform was making most of its submissions, but whittled down to around 50%, where it has been hovering since around the 450 mark in responses.  In fact at this point none of the percentages change very much no matter how many more people respond, which is why it's a significant statistical sample.

This battle is almost more interesting than the POTUS battle and very difficult to make a prediction on.  Lots of gerrymanderingdone by the Repugnants over the years making it very difficult for Demodopes to win in many states.  Also interesting is the scenario where Trumpofsky got reelected but both House of CONgress were in Demodope hands.  I would expect an impeachment to follow that shortly.

I also went over this one in the Demographic overview, but since it's a Political question I felt it belongs here also for reference.  Unsurprisingly, Kollapsniks who frequent the web get most of their information from there, either the Alternative Newz sites & Blogs or the MSM which is now mainly online rather than in Newzpaper format.  Does anyone have a subscription to a Daily Newzpaper anymore?  There's another job lost to the internet, Paperboys!

This also explains the vast gulf in attitudes between Kollapsniks and the hoi polloi.  If you surveyed there, I am sure TV and Talk Radio would be in the top spots.  Like computers, people follow the rule of "Garbage in, Garbage out" also.  Not that all internet newz sources are all that great either, and readers to tend to gravitate toward sites that provide them with Confirmation Bias, extending on both sides of the Political Spectrum to quite extreme views.  Although it seems to me anecdotally that there are more  Extreme Right Wing websites than Left Wing ones.  I don't have any numbers to back up that impression though.

9 – Write-In Candidates for POTUS

 

Bernie Sanders greg hunter Lewis black Shaquille O'Neal
Ajamu Baraka Henry Rollins Mark Warner Stacy Abrams
Al Gore Jake Tapper Martin armstrong Stephanie Kelton
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez James Hansen Michael Mann Stephen Colbert
Amy Kobucher James Mattis Michael Parenti Stephen King
Andrew Bacevich Jeff Flake Michelle Obama Steve Ludlum
Andrew Yang Jeff Merkeley Mike Enoch Steven Pinker
Angelina Jolie Jerry Brown Mitt Romney David Stockman
Angelo D'Angelo Jesse Ventura Robert Mueller Ted Cruz
Ann Coulter Jill Stein neil degrass tyson Ted Lieu
Arnold Schwarzenegger Jim Carrey Nikki Haley Tulsi Gabbard
Chris Hedges Jim Jordan noam chomsky Tom Cotton
Chuck Schumer Jim Quinn Mike Pence Tom Fitton
Colin Powell John Darnielle Penn Jillette Tom Hanks
Cornel West John Michael Greer Vladimir Putin Tom Kratman
David Duke Jon Huntsman, Jr. Ralph Nader Tom Steyer
Derrick Jensen Jordan Peterson Rand Paul Tucker Carlson
Dr. James Hansen judge napolitano Richard Heinberg Warren Buffett
Dwayne johnson Katherine Hayhoe Ron Paul Yves Smith
Elon Musk Kayne West Rosa Luxenberg  
Gail Tverberg Kim Kardashian Russell Brand  
Garrett Hardin Kristen Gillibrand Paul Ryan  
Gerald Celente Larry Hogan Sam Carana  
glenn beck Lawrence Kotlicoff Scott Walker  

 

As you can see, there's quite a selection of write in candidates here.  Eliminated from the list are Dead People, Cartoon Characters, Selfies, Nobodies & I Don't Knows.  Also nominations for people who are already on the list of choices, and Trumpovtsky who is likely to be on the Reugnant ticket.  This question was for the Demodopes ticket.  Also some non-US citizens like Russel Brand were written in, but they couldn't be elected even if there were enough write-ins for them.  I left them in the list anyhow though.

A Dead Heat (pun intended) here in this race, and it kind of depends on how you look at the question.  In the long run it doesn't matter since Industrial Civilization will Collapse regardless who is in office.  It does matter though in the more near term,because one Party is going to make sure the Rich get Richer and the Poor get Poorer as Collapse progresses, and the other party might distribute out the rapidly shrinking pie of planetary wealth a little more evenly.  I'm sure you can figure out which party is which here on that score.

In any event, the political setup here has a limited lifespan, once the monetary system collapses it is destined for the scrap heap, and what will come after it is a Known Unkown.

Similar to the question of whether it makes a difference if you vote in a Demodope or a Repugnant to office, this depends on how you interpret the question.  Voting isn't going to stop Collapse, but then neither will Revolution.  However, in either of those cases if you can make some change to the status quo, the downhill slope could take different routes.  One might go on the Downhill, straight down the hill full blass with no Gates, the other might take a Slalom back and forth and slow down the descent some.  Another Known Unknown is what is the best choice to take here.

Most Kollapsniks don't see too much difference between Demodopes and Repugnants, but 2/3rds of them would participate in Street Demonstrations for Political Change of some kind.  Street Demonstrations amount to "Revolution Lite", people will come out in favor of this without necessarily advocating for Revolution.  However, since the effectiveness of Street Demonstrations these days is questionable, it's really just a precursor to Revolution as the demonstrators don't get the changes they are looking for from this type of political action.  In the words of JFK:

Image result for jfk those who make peaceful

Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of Kollapsniks would prefer Revolution to a continuance of BAU.  However, I'm not sure how many of them think through what the consequences will be and the amount of Death that will come with it, quite rapidly.  I also suspect this distribution varies a LOT by the Socioeconomic position of the respondent, whether they are low income and struggling to survive or high income and still living the fairly cushy lifestyle that goes with that.  It probably also is dependent on the position and level of education of the respondent, I suspect the Drs have a different distribution than the HS Grads.  However, I haven't yet parsed the data to verify that.

This is a gratifying result, considering the Hopelessness pitch that Dr. McStinksion dishes out from Nature Bats Last.  If it's all hopeless, why bother with any Political Action?  Just Party like it's 1999 until you are one of the Dead People!  Don't bother to Prep Up, that's a Waste of Time too!  In fact, don't bother to get out of bed, that's another waste of time.

Extinction isn't a guarantee, nobody has a Crystal Ball on this.  A population Knockdown is likely, but even that isn't guaranteed, and you can't peg an absolute timeline to that either.  Meanwhile, you ned to figure out what to do with yourself and how to stay alive just as long as you can.  That is of course as long as you prefer the alternative of living to dying.

This again is a result I agree with, Economic Collapse is going to preceed a complete Climate Collapse by quite some time, and wreak much more havoc in the near term when it hits in full force.  Think of it like a Global Tsunami, it will wash over every aspect of life and the resultant Death Toll will be in the Millions if not Billions.  We're going to need to get these problems resolved before it even becomes possible to address the Climate Collapse issues.  Whether that can be done on any kind of large scale is an open question, though IMHO one with a likely negative answer.

You can however make changes to your own life that can help you survive as the climate collapse progresses.  You location is a primary one, if you live right on the coast in Hurricane Alley, this is not a good choice of places to live.  Building in resilience is also a good choice here, living rurally off-grid and growing at least some of your own food better than sticking to BAU in the Big Shities to make a big paycheck.  Most important of all is to develop COMMUNITY, going it alone is a sure ticket to the Great Beyond when TSHTF.

 

Next week, I'll present the many write-in answers from survey respondents on the problems they see as important.  Untiil then, have another good wee as we observe the Collapse of Industrial Civilization here on the Doomstead Diner.

2019 Collapse Survey Results – The 500: Who are the Kollapsniks? – The Demographics

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 13, 2018

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

 

Notes from RE:

1- Although the title says 500, I actually took this snapshot of the Stats when the numbers were between 430-435.  They are now at 558 as I publish this article.  I chose 500 because it sounds good and it's right between the 300 of Thermopylae and the 600 of the Light Brigade.  Percentages haven't changed much with the additional submissions since the snapshot was taken.  We will no doubt add quite a few more respondents with this article since I am leaving the survey open for the time being.  460 respondents marked the point at which the survey gained a 99% Confidence Level with a 6% Confidence Interval for a population size of 100,000, but more is always better when it comes to surveys.

Respondents who added their email addys will get a pdf of the survey results right around 500, depending when I take the snapshot.  More in depth analysis can be done with the spreadsheet, you can parse the numbers with that.  Contact me on the Diner if you are interested in doing a more detailed numerical analysis and have verifiable background with which to do it.

If you use the results of this survey in any academic papers or documents, please reference the Doomstead Diner as the source in your footnotes.  Also please inform me through the Contact Page on the Diner if you are going to use the survey or its charts and graphs in this way, or on you blogs if you have one.

No parts of this study may be used on commercial websites that use Advertising or sell Merchandise such as the Author's books, or which have Paywalls without the expressed consent of the Doomstead Diner and the Sustaining Universal Needs Foundation.  None of the charts and graphs may be altered in any way or the copyright and logos removed from those charts.

The Survey remains OPEN at this time.  Responses keep dribbling in and I don't want to leave anyone out of the final Tally.

2-  Most of the questions don't tally to the full 430 or so when I took the snapshot.  This because all respondents don't answer all questions.

3- Statistical Significance:  This is always a bone of contention with any survey.  How significant is it really?  How big is the population you are surveying?

It's tough to estimate exactly how many people were surveyed here across all the websites, but I'm putting the Outer Limit at 100,000.  r/collapse has the largest circulaton with almost 90,000 subscribers, but many of them no longer participate or read the sub anymore.  Also unlikely that in 2 weeks all the currently active redditors saw the links to the survey.  All the rest of the blogs and forums are much smaller, so 100,000 seems like a good outer limit here.

At this level of population, the Survey comes in with a 99% Confidence Level and a 6% Confidence Interval, IOW it's very significant for this size population.  It's likely quite accurate in its numbers.  Caculations done with the Survey Calculator on SurveySystems.com.

4- Question Structure Complaints:  Once again with all surveys, complaints come in with the way the questions are structured and what the answer choices are.  In this case I tried to give as many places for a free form write-in response as possible.  Many respondents took advantage of this and I will publish their responses in follow up articles or Inside the Diner in the Surveys thread.

5- "Americentric" Complaints:  Specific to this survey, several complaints came in that it was "Americentric", which really is not true.  There are a few questions specific to the Amerikan Political Sewer, but most of the questions are applicable to Kollapsniks who live anywhere at all.

 

Thanks to all the Kollapsniks from all websites who dropped in their 2 cents on this survey.  Special thanks to the following 7 websites which contributed the bulk of the opinions (sites with >5 Repsondents):

 

#1- Reddit r/collapse with 168 Submissions

#2- Cassandra's Legacy with 121 Submissions

#3- The Burning Platform with 98 Submissions

#4- The Doomstead Diner with 68 Submissions

#5-  Economic Undertow with 16 Submissions

#6- Our Finite World with 13 Submissions

#7- Truthdig with 7 Submissions

 

Each of these websites has a somewhat different readerhship, I'll make some general observations here from my time participating on all of these websites  as a (rather prolific, lol) commenter and TROLL. Before Admining my own site, I was a first class annoying troll in the commentariat of NUMEROUS websites, I can't even count them all anymore.  I was BANNED from most of them. lol.

 

#1- r/collapse: Like the rest of Reddit, r/collapse is dominated by social media freak Millenials.  Their education and knowledge of the problems we face is very diverse.  Some are well read up, others are fucking clueless idiots.  Their numbers are HUGE, dwarfing any of the single collapse websites.  Their Political viewpoints vary from the far right to the far left, leaning more toward the left.

#2- Cassandra's Legacy:  Prof. Ugo Bardi's Blog.  He teaches Physical Chemistry at the Univeristy of Firenza in Italy.   Ugo is a member of the Club of Rome and participated in the original Limits to Growth study done int he 1970s.  The website is LOADED with Academics with Ph.Ds.  It's one of the reasons we have such a high education level recorded in this survey.  Ugo and I collaborated on many video discussions of Collapse Issues which can be found on the Diner YouTube Channel.

#3- The Burning Platform: Run by Jim Quinn, a CPA who handles the books at the Wharton Biz Skule in the Ivy League.  A Baby Boomer who denies he is a Baby Boomer, for whom the 4th Turning by Strauss & Howe is the Bible of Collapse.  Very Right-Wing/Libertarian leaning website, with quite a vocal commentariat.  I praticipated on that site for a couple of years and wrote numerous contrarian articles there.  It was very entertaining. lol.

#4- The Doomstead Diner: My Doom Website, established in 2012 by myself and my co-Admin Surly and our Code Jockey tech designer Peter.  The #1 Go-To Website on the net for Collapse Newz.  Generally Left leaning politically, but we do have a few contrarian Libertarians who chip in their 2 cents as well.  A very contentious commentariat, not a place for the meek.  Don your Fireproof BVDs before you sign in. lol.

#5- Economic Undertow: Run by Steve Ludlum, aka Steve from Virginia.  An economic technical site with a very different from mainstream analysis you can get anywhere else, and usually right on the mark.  Steve also collaborated with me on many videos.  A relatively apolitical website.

#6- Our Finite World:  Run by Gail Tverberg, a former professional Actuary who does many charts and graphs to illustrate her POV on the energy problems we face.  OFW has become increasingly Doomerish over the years, although the site has little political spin at all, just some very vehement Nihilists.  Gail also collaborrated with me on numerous discussions and videos.  No discernible Political Spin to this website.

#7- Truthdig:  Chris Hedges website.  Chris is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and an unabshed Socialist with a Capital S.  He himself does have a net worth in the $Millions$ though. lol.  He's a fabulous speaker and does great interviews as well.

 

Now, on to the charts from the survey.  For today, we look at the Demographic Questions.  I'll make a few brief comments beneath each chart.   For further analysis and discussion, visit the Survey Table inside the Diner.

 

Survey still OPEN

Survey now @ 558 Submissions

 

This was one of the more interesting (and colorful!) Doughnut charts on the survey.  The Political Spectrum from which Kollapsniks come is quite diverse, that's why the chart is filled with so many colors.

Of interest first is how few Doomers identify themselves as either traditional Demodopes or Repugnants.  The overwhelming majority of Kollapsniks are fed up with BAU in Washington (and their more local legislatures) and are abandoning these parties in droves, although on both sides of this artificial divide they mostly still do vote for one candidate or the other, because in the FSoA 3rd Party candidates simply can't win and just end up being spoilers for one side or the other.

Where most of them have migrated to in their thinking though is either to the Democratic-Socialists (best exemplafied in the FSoA so far by Bernie Sanders) or the Libertarians (best exmplified in the FSoA so far by Ron Paul and his Heir-Apparent Rand Paul).

More interesting to me than this were the number of respondents who identified themselves as either outright Fascist or Communist.  7% in total in this snapshot, holding fairly steady with the combined total now at 8%.  Communists lead Fascists 5%-3%.  I am fairly astounded though that this large a segment of the population will identify themselves outright with either political system.  Both have received tons of bad press over the years since WWII, and in Amerika most people would rather be "Better Dead than Red".  Kollapsniks take on these beliefs I think because they are so thoroughly disgusted with BAU and only see a major revolution as having any chance at actually changing things.

 

A pretty much expected result here, but quite different I think from the general public.  My sense there is they get most of their newz and political beliefs from the TV and from Talk Radio shows.  Every time I jump in a cab the driver has Rush Limbaugh squawking away and I have to sit through that shit for an hour long ride to Anchorage for my latest MRI or CAT Scan.  I gotta start carrying my noise-cancelling Bose Headphones.

About nobody gets their newz at the Barber Shop or Bar anymore, but go back to the days before Radio & TV, this is where people got together to discuss the newz of the day.  I think people were a little more politically savvy back then, although that is just a feeling, no numbers to back that up.

 

This is an EXTREMELY common topic on r/collapse, with quite vehement opinions exressed quite often when the topic comes up.  There is a large cohort of people who think NOBODY should have kids, it's "wrong to bring children into a World in Collapse".  Why bring a new life into the world just to condemn it to a life of pain & suffering?  Also, the clear problems we have with Population Overshoot say we gotta reduce the total population of Homo Saps if we expect the planet to remain Habitable and ourselves not to go Extinct in the Near Term.  However, how is the population of Homo Saps not go Extinct unless SOMEBODY has children?

Here is where the plurality of respondents believe your financial means should determine whether you can have children or not.  That is essentially the viewpoint of the Eugenics believers of the early 20th Century, followers of Margaret Sanger who felt poor people should be Sterilized.  This of course was taken up by the Nazi Party and Adolf Hitller in Germany as well.  Why should reproduction be only for the rich?  How many very successful people came from poverty, raised on rural farms to bootstrap themselves up to wealth and success?  Should their parents not have been allowed to breed them?

Roughly half of the Kollapsniks are Married, but if you add in those who have a Life Partner or many Sexual Partners to this, that is the clear majority.  If you parse out this data by age group though, you will see that this also represents the older demographic.  Younger Kollapsniks are not so often coupled up.  Many reasons for this, often discussed in the Sociological trends discussions Inside the Diner.

Similar to the Marriage question, it is mostly older Kollapsniks who have children.  The number with replacement level or below is the majority, which does match with statistics showing that  Industrialized Nations are shrinking in self-procreated population (although immigration still makes up for that deficit in many if not most of those countries).  You could parse this one out by Income distribution, but I haven't done that as of yet.  I suspect the people who have larger numbers of children also have larger incomes, but that might not be true.

I was surprised that roughly 1/4 of Kollapsniks consider themselves "Optimistic" about the future, considering all the incoming evidence that things will just be going from Bad to Worse over time here.  This attitude is what I labelled as "Doom Lite" a few years back, and IMHO it's the result of Normalcy Bias.  We've always bounced back from crashes before, right?  We came back from the Great Depression bigger and stronger than ever!  After Rome Collapsed it took a few hundred years of Dark Ages, but we got the Reformation and Scientific Revolution!  I personally think "this time is different".  I don't think we're going to rebound, at least not in the forseeable future anyhow.  Perhaps some Plateaus and Dead Cat Bounces along the way down, but this is basically one long downhill slide we are on now.  Apologies to John Michael Greer, but it's not "slow & catabolic".  It's moving along quite rapidly now, and getting faster all the time. So I dropped myself in the "Pessimist" category.

The Nihilist category is a whole other ballgame, and while still relatively small it grows all the time and is quite vocal on Collapse websites as well.  This cohort of people is absolutely mired in Hopelessness and in many cases actually HOPES for the Extinction of Homo Saps, the sooner the better.  Don't bother arguing with these folks, it's a complete waste of time.

Here is a result I REALLY did not expect, and it took me some time looking at the data to figure out why the Diner came out #1 on the Hit Parade of Collapse Websites.  The reason is the algorithm the software uses to determine rankings.  It's not just how many Doomers rank you first, it's how many 2nds, 3rds etc you get from them.  Really low rankings from someone bring your totals down.  So many of these websites cancel each other out, Doomers who read The Burning Platform don't read r/collapse, and vica-versa.  The Diner gets high rankings from its own readership, and middle level rankings from everyone else.  In the totals, it comes out on top! 🙂

DOOMSTEAD DINER.  #1 FOR DOOM ON THE NET!

Unsurprisingly since BY FAR r/collapse has the widest circulation, they turned in the most submissions.  Of course, I do participate there myself and plugged the living shit out of the survey over there, which didn't hurt either.  lol.  TBP was in 2nd for a while, but the cohort of Acaademics from Cassandra's Legacy ended up trouncing them when Ugo put up the survey on his blog also.  The Diner rolled in in 4th place, out of the money. lol.  Significantly, without being listed in the main choices, Steve Ludlum's Blog of Economic Undertow came in 5th with 16 write-in ballots.

This split actually has moved up some, now with 14% of Internet Kollapsniks registering their gender as Female.  Either way though this matches earlier surveys we have done where the number always comes in between 10-15%, regardless of the Collapse Website you look at.  Why this is so isn't certain, and I asked this question in an earlier article on this topic.  It's not like wimmen are scarce on the net overall, you find them all over the place on the Cooking websites and the Homesteading sites as well with Gardening tips and so forth.  They seem to avoid the real heavy duty Doomer websites though.

Another very colorful Doughnut chart here, with Kollapsniks quite widely distributed around the FSoA, and throughout the rest of the World as well.  15% of responses came from non-FSoA citizens living elsewhere in the world.  Some of the other countries and regions represented are:

 

Australasia
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Central America
Egypt
EU
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Oceania
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Mongolia

Some folks here identified themselves as coming from a given region such as Oceania rather than a specific country.  Particularly true of people living in the EU.  Regardless, it was a fairly wide distribution from around the Globe.

 

Like the Gender issue, I wrote previously about the Religion issue, specifically how few Muslims particpated in the survey given there are over 1B followers of Islam on the planet.  Many of course do not have internet access as their countries get Bombed Back to the Stone Age by the FSoA.  However, many have migrated over the years to the FSoA and Europe, so you would figure a few more would show up.  Their numbers still hover around 1% though, and are actually below Pantheists, Panentheists and Unitarian-Universalists, all spectacularly tiny religions.

Far as Kollapsniks go, the majority identify themselves as either Atheist or none, as in no religion at all.  I find it hard to imagine how anyone can have no belief system at all, everybody believes something.  Even if you believe you can't believe anything, you believe something. lol.  Christians are the other really large category, no surprise there since Christianity is the major religion of Western Industrialized nations, and they did a pretty good job of converting a lot of Chinese to this religion too.  However, nobody from China listed themselves as from there in the locations question.

This is one of the more astounding results from the survey, since it is so far above the level of education in the population at large. 3/4ths of Kollapsniks have a Bachelors Degree or higher, with 13% at the Doctoral Level. In the general population, less than 1/3rd of people have a Bachelor's Degree, and less than 2% Doctoral level.  Generally speaking, Kollapsniks are very well educated people.  An interesting data parsing here would be to see if attitudes about energy or extinction vary significantly by education level?  I haven't done that depth of analysis yet though so I can't tell you.  It's rather time consuming work, and I'm not sure I'll ever get to it.  Just getting out the basic data is taking me a month of time here.  If anybody else wants to parse the numbers, CONTACT me on the Diner and we can discuss it.

Another fairly colorful chart, since Kollapsniks seem to be quite well distributed across the economic spectrum, with the majority between $20,000-$200,000, the working poor to the high Upper Middle Class in the FSoA. The Survey did pull in 3  1%ers  earning between $500,000-$1,000,000 and 2  0.1%ers with an income >$1,000,000.  Who are these folks?  How about making a TAX DEDUCTABLE Donation to the Sustaining Universal Needs Foundation (a 501c3 nonprofit Charitable Organization) to help us expand our work educating people about Collapse and building Sustainable Communities?  CONTACT me on the Diner if you can help us financially.

Somewhat surprisingly to me ZERO respondents to the survey identified themselves as Homeless.  It's surprising because I know there are several Redditors on r/collapse living and working in some of the more expensive cties like Seattle and San Francisco living in their Stealth Vans.  So these folks either didn't respond to the survey or they don't consider themselves Homeless, their Vans are their homes.  I'm not surprised there are no respondents from people who are so far down now already they are sleeping rough.  They don't generally spend much time on the internet and aren't real concerned with the greater scope of Collapse.  They have their own personal collapse to deal with.

It was brought up Inside the Diner that how much money you have around to pay your monthly bills isn't really a great measure of Net Worth, and that is somewhat true.  However, in order to have months or years of cash around or assets to liquidate, your net worth has to be pretty good, and/or your expenses very low.  I had to manage for 7 months with no income whatsoever when I first became a Cripple.  A combination of low monthly expenses, no debt and a good sized nest egg I put together over the years enabled me to do this.  Here in the FSoA, 60% of people don't even have 1 month of savings to handle emergencies or loss of income.  Kollapsniks do substantially better than this typical percentage, both because they have higher incomes in general than average and because, well they are Preppers & Doomers expecting things to crash any day now. lol.  Part of Prepping Up for Collapse is having a Stash of Cash for SHTF Day and getting out of debt.  Trimming your expenses to the bone and living a low consumption lifestyle also are important aspects of being ready for Collapse to arrive at your doorstep, which it will at some point.  Collapse is…

…Coming Soon to a Neighborhood Near You.

Help Build the Diner and Save As Many As You Can.

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DD-World-Turmoil

 

2019 Collapse Survey Results: The 500 – Energy & Technology

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 6, 2018

 

" Remember this day men, for it will be yours for all time."

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

 

The Charge of the Light Brigade

I
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.
 
II
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
   Someone had blundered.
   Theirs not to make reply,
   Theirs not to reason why,
   Theirs but to do and die.
   Into the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.
 
III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
   Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
   Rode the six hundred.
 
Image result for charge of the light brigade
 
IV
Flashed all their sabres bare,
Flashed as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
   All the world wondered.
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right through the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reeled from the sabre stroke
   Shattered and sundered.
Then they rode back, but not
   Not the six hundred.
 
V
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
   Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
   Left of six hundred.
 
VI
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
   All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
   Noble six hundred!
 
 

 

 

 

 

Notes from RE:

1- Although the title says 500, I actually took this snapshot of the Stats when the numbers were between 430-435.  They are now at 535 as I publish this article.  I chose 500 because it sounds good and it's right between the 300 of Thermopylae and the 600 of the Light Brigade.  Percentages haven't changed much with the additional submissions since the snapshot was taken.  We will no doubt add quite a few more respondents with this article since I am leaving the survey open for the time being.  460 respondents marked the point at which the survey gained a 99% Confidence Level with a 6% Confidence Interval for a population size of 100,000, but more is always better when it comes to surveys.

Respondents who added their email addys will get a pdf of the survey results right around 500, depending when I take the snapshot.  More in depth analysis can be done with the spreadsheet, you can parse the numbers with that.  Contact me if you are interested in doing a more detailed numerical analysis and have verifiable background with which to do it.

If you use the results of this survey in any academic papers or documents, please reference the Doomstead Diner as the source in your footnotes.  Also please inform me through the Contact Page on the Diner if you are going to use the survey or its charts and graphs in this way, or on your blogs if you have one.

No parts of this study may be used on commercial websites that use Advertising or sell Merchandise such as the Author's books, or which have Paywalls without the express consent of the Doomstead Diner and the Sustaining Universal Needs Foundation.  None of the charts and graphs may be altered in any way or the copyright and logos removed from those charts.

The Survey remains OPEN at this time.  Responses keep dribbling in and I don't want to leave anyone out of the final Tally.

2-  Most of the questions don't tally to the full 430 or so when I took the snapshot.  This because all respondents don't answer all questions.

3- Statistical Significance:  This is always a bone of contention with any survey.  How significant is it really?  How big is the population you are surveying?

It's tough to estimate exactly how many people were surveyed here across all the websites, but I'm putting the Outer Limit at 100,000.  r/collapse has the largest circulaton with almost 90,000 subscribers, but many of them no longer participate or read the sub anymore.  Also unlikely that in 2 weeks all the currently active redditors saw the links to the survey.  All the rest of the blogs and forums are much smaller, so 100,000 seems like a good outer limit here.

At this level of population, the Survey comes in with a 99% Confidence Level and a 6% Confidence Interval, IOW it's very significant for this size population.  It's likely quite accurate in its numbers.  Caculations done with the Survey Calculator on SurveySystems.com.

4- Question Structure Complaints:  Once again with all surveys, complaints come in with the way the questions are structured and what the answer choices are.  In this case I tried to give as many places for a free form write in response as possible.  Many respondents took advantage of this and I will publish their responses in follow up articles or Inside the Diner in the Surveys thread.

5- "Americentric" Complaints:  Specific to this survey, several complaints came in that it was "Americentric", which really is not true.  There are a few questions specific to the Amerikan Political Sewer, but most of the questions are applicable to Kollapsniks who live anywhere at all.

 

Thanks to all the Kollapsniks from all websites who dropped in their 2 cents on this survey.  Special thanks to the following 7 websites which contributed the bulk of the opinions (sites with >5 Repsondents):

 

#1- Reddit r/collapse with 168 Submissions

#2- Cassandra's Legacy with 121 Submissions

#3- The Burning Platform with 98 Submissions

#4- The Doomstead Diner with 68 Submissions

#5-  Economic Undertow with 16 Submissions

#6- Our Finite World with 13 Submissions

#7- Truthdig with 7 Submissions

 

Each of these websites has a somewhat different readerhship, I'll make some general obserations here from my time participating on all of these websites  as a (rather prolific, lol) commenter and TROLL. Before Admining my own site, I was a first class annoying troll in the commentariat of NUMEROUS websites, I can't even count them all anymore.  I was BANNED from most of them. lol.

 

#1- r/collapse: Like the rest of Reddit, r/collapse is dominated by social media freak Millenials.  Their education and knowledge of the problems we face is very diverse.  Some are well read up, others are fucking clueless idiots.  Their numbers are HUGE, dwarfing any of the single collapse websites.  Their Political viewpoints vary from the far right to the far left, leaning more toward the left.

#2- Cassandra's Legacy:  Prof. Ugo Bardi's Blog.  He teaches Physical Chemistry at the Univeristy of Firenza in Italy.   Ugo is a member of the Club of Rome and participated in the original Limits to Growth study done in the 1970s.  The website is LOADED with Academics with Ph.Ds.  It's one of the reasons we have such a high education level recorded in this survey.  Ugo and I collaborated on many video discussions of Collapse Issues which can be found on the Diner YouTube Channel.

#3- The Burning Platform: Run by Jim Quinn, a CPA who handles the books at the Wharton Biz Skule in the Ivy League.  A Baby Boomer who denies he is a Baby Boomer, for whom the 4th Turning by Strauss & Howe is the Bible of Collapse.  Very Right-Wing/Libertarian leaning website, with quite a vocal commentariat.  I participated on that site for a couple of years and wrote numerous contrarian articles there.  It was very entertaining. lol.

#4- The Doomstead Diner: My Doom Website, established in 2012 by myself and my co-Admin Surly and our Code Jockey tech designer Peter.  The #1 Go-To Website on the net for Collapse Newz.  Generally Left leaning politically, but we do have a few contrarian Libertarians who chip in their 2 cents as well.  A very contentious commentariat, not a place for the meek.  Don your Fireproof BVDs before you sign in. lol.

#5- Economic Undertow: Run by Steve Ludlum, aka Steve from Virginia.  An economic technical site with a very different from mainstream analysis you can get anywhere else, and usually right on the mark.  Steve also collaborated with me on many videos.  A relatively apolitical website.

#6- Our Finite World:  Run by Gail Tverberg, a former professional Actuary who does many charts and graphs to illustrate her POV on the energy problems we face.  OFW has become increasingly Doomerish over the years, although the site has little political spin at all, just some very vehement Nihilists.  Gail also collaborated with me on numerous discussions and videos.  No discernible Political Spin to this website.

#7- Truthdig:  Chris Hedges website.  Chris is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and an unabshed Socialist with a Capital S.  He himself does have a net worth in the $Millions$ though. lol.  He's a fabulous speaker and does great interviews as well.

 

Now, on to the charts from the survey.  For today, we look at the Energy & Technology Questions.  I'll make a few brief comments beneath each chart.   For further analysis and discussion, visit the Survey Table inside the Diner.

 

Survey still OPEN

Survey now @ 534 Submissions

 

I found it pretty hard to believe that roughly 1/4 of Kollapsniks characterize their attitude as "Optimistic", given all the evidence coming in here nowadays.  However, hope springs eternal even amongst Doomers.  I voted in the Pessimist category.  The Nihilists are still a fairly small but very vocal community, led by such pundits as Dr. McStinksion from Nature Bats Last.

The plurality of Kollapsniks think that Renewables can provide enough energy to maintain the technological lifestyle, at least for a smaller population of Homo Saps anyhow.  I fall into the Pipedream category, I don't think most of these techno-gimmick solutions will work for any more than a few decades at best.

Here most Kollapsniks feel we should put the bulk of our resources into developing Solar Photovolataics.  An oversight here, I didn't include Solar Thermal (stuff like Stirling Engines) which might have a longer lifespan overall than photovoltaics.  I'm down there at the low end favoring putting our resources toward biomass and animal power.  It's going to take quite some time to breed up a population of horses again sufficient for even a reduced Homo Sap footprint on the planet.  Developing biomass is good for the environment also and doesn't require complex factories or machinery to use.

Given the disasters of 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, it's hard for me to understand how anyone can be in favor of Nuclear Energy.  And those disasters (along with smaller ones at reactors you don't hear about) happened during GOOD TIMES, when we have some resources to throw at the problem and try to contain it.  The spent fuel waste continues to pile up with no solution to that in sight.  Thorium Reactors and Fusion Power are both Pipedreams of the technogimmick Futurologists, they don't exist in practical working form anywhere.  It's time to give up on this Planet Killing system and decommision the plants while there is still time.

This one truly astounds me.  Even today, more than 1/5th of Kollapsniks buy into the Star Trek Futurology Mythology and think we will leave this planet to set up colonies on Mars and Beyond.  We can't even set up a self-sustaining colony in Antarctica, and it has air, water and suitable gravity for Homo Saps!  The "Space Station" we have up is decades old and is just a bunch of glorified RVs hooked together in space.  It's no 2001 Big Wheel in the Sky.  We don't have a propulsion system that is going to drive us through Interstellar Space and then be able also to land on and take off from any planets we migt find out there.  Yet this whole meme continues to be sold by dingbats like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, who waste $Billions$ in debt money and Wall Street keeps funding them!  It's just preposterous and the stuff of childhood fantasies.  Grow UP people!  The Human Race was born on this planet and it will die here at some indeterminate point in the future.  Live with it.

These questions were covered in The Human Extinction Survey, which we ran a couple of years ago here on the Diner.  However, attitudes do change as time goes by and Collapse progresses, so I included a few questions on the future of Homo Sap and when we might go Extinct in this survey as well.  It's always a popular topic in the commentariat of Collapse websites.

In this particular iteration of the question we do have 2 complete Fanatics who think the entire population of Homo Sap will be DEAD by next year.  These are the acolytes and True Believers of Dr. McStinksion on Nature Bats Last.  Sorry folks, the only way you get 100% Dead People by next year is if the Earth collides with a Planet Killer Asteroid.  You need 100% for Extinction, 99.99% just won't do here.  Even full on Thermonuclear War couldn't do it, nor could a Supervolcanic Eruption.

Only slightly more rational is the cohort that thinks we'll have Extinction by 2030, there were 7 of those responding to the survey.  Again, you just can't get an extinction that fast, there will still be some habitable neighborhoods even under the worst projections for climate change by 2030.

2050 to 2100 starts to get more rational, but in neither case will I be alive that long, so after about 2040 (really, if I make it to 2025 that will be miraculous) it's irrelevant to me when Extinction arrives.  Not so for some younger and healthier Diners of course.  In the meantime though while you are waiting for the last Homo Sap on Planet Earth to expire, WTF do you DO with yourself?  Are you going to just throw up your hands and give up?  Pull your own plug and commit Seppuku?  What?

I put in my vote for In the Year 2525, because that was what was prophesied by Zager & Evans in 1968, 50 years ago.

This is one of my favorite Collapse Questions, because my own opinion on this has changed over the years of observing and writing about Collapse.

When I first began in 2007 on the Peak Oil Forum, my opinion was we could stabilize at a 19th Century level of technology, with stuff like Steam Engines and Railroads.  At the end of my years there but before I launched the Doomstead Diner with my Comrades Peter & Surly I was back to the 18th Century, prior to the invention of the Steam Engine.

My estimates have continued to retreat in time however, to the point now I don't think anything is truly sustainable beyond Stone Age Technology.  There is only a small cohort of submitters who agree with me on this estimate, 2% or 9 submitters in total.  I have numerous reasons why I have come to this conclusion, too numerous and detailed to expand on here.  If you are curious to discuss it, drop in at the Survey Table inside the Diner and I'll be happy to explain the rationale for this.

Stone Age Tech really isn't so bad though, when you consider what Stone Age people were able to accomplish and how long they lasted before the discovery of Metallurgy and Ceramics and before intensive Agriculture began for them in their neighborhoods.  The Polynesians who explored the breadth of the biggest Ocean of them all, the Pacific, were Stone Age People.

Image result for hokulea

Don't you wish you were the Navigator on that first Cat-Rigged Sailing Canoe that made it to the Big Island of Hawaii when it was still pristine and unspoiled?  When I shut the eyes of my crippled body, that is where I am, on the deck of that boat with Mauna Loa off in the distance.

This is another of those stats that is incomprehensible to me if you at are at all familiar with the history of the growth of Homo Sap population and when it started to max out in some neighborhoods.  In Europe at the time of the Plagues, the population leveled off with a Global Population estimated at around 600M in that era.

Image result for global population table

After that of course, the New World was discovered, Native Inhabitants of that location systematically exterminated and then came the discovery of Fossil Fuels and how to apply them to Agriculture with Industrial Farming apparatus, Fertilizers and Pesticides, rapidly increasing the doubling rate for the Homo Sap population inhabing the Earth.  However, how much of that population is truly sustainable once the FFs have run out, not to mention the depletion of topsoil and aquifers and the pollution left behind here?  If that number was 1B even with all the Best Practices Permie techniques and hydroponics and aquaculture I would be flabberghasted.  I lowballed my estimate at 10M to 100M.  Maybe more than that, but I expect an Undershoot to persist for quite some time in the aftermath of the Collapse of Industrial Civilization.

One of my favorite categories from this survey, because it is so far over the top.  The typical distribution of education levels in the FSoA comes up with around 30% with a Bachelor's degree or above, and around 2% with Doctoral level education sheepskins.

Image result for educational attainment in the us

Doomers however come in with about 3/4s (73%) of them with a Bachelor's degree or better, and an astounding 13% with the coveted "Dr." preceeding their name and letting everyone know you are an important and smart guy who gets paid a lot of money to sneer at nurses and any other staff below him on the hospital hierarchy list.  I'm not a big fan of Credentialism in general, and frankly I haven't found "Dr."s to be any smarter than the population at large, and often enough dumber.  However, this is an amazing statistic, demonstrating that in general Doomers are much better educated than the population at large.  Does that make them any more prescient?  Only time will tell on that score, but it does lend gravitas to the survey.

One of the more common critiques you get if you are a Doomer aware of the Climate issues with increasing CO2 levels is if you use an Internal Combustion Engine car for your transportation.  Cries of HYPOCRISY are heard throughout the Commentariat of the Blogosphere!  Well, the stats show that said doomers are in fact "hypocrites" in this regard, with 2/3rds of them using carz as their primary mode of transportation.  Does this in REALITY make them hypocrites?  IMHO, no it does not.

The fact of the matter is if you live inside Industrial Civilization in most places besides a few Big Shities with decent Public Transit systems, you simply can't get along or make a living for yourself without driving a car.  Even Public Transit though burns a shit load of fossil fuels, ever consider how much energy it takes to keep all those subway trains running in NYC 24/7/365?  At 3 AM sometimes I would get on the No. 7 Flushing Line and there would be NOBODY else in the train car, one of maybe 7-10 of these huge hunks of metal in the whole train.  How efficient a use of energy is that?

People who drive Teslas, Volts and other EVs consider themselves "Green", but of course they also use electricity which is generally produced by burning fossil fuels.  The amount of energy contributed to this so far by Solar PV is marginal right now.   Besides that, the manufacture of photovoltaic cells takes energy and is the source of quite a bit of mining pollution as well, so you can cross yourself off the list of Greenies if you are driving one of these overpriced hunks of metal, glass & plastic around.

You pretty much have to work down to the level of the Amish with a horse drawn carriage or use a bicycle all the time to be anywhere near "Green", and this just isn't practical for most people.  Doomer or not, aware of Climate problems or not, we're mostly going to continue driving carz until we just can't anymore.  How far off that day is remains an open question of course.

Concommitant with owning a car and using it for your transit needs is how many miles do you actually DRIVE that car every week?  There's quite the range here as well amongst Kollapsniks, from the very low end of <10 miles/week (93 respondents/25%) to the high end of >1000 (3 respondents/1%).

For the low end folks, I suspect they are retired/crippled folks like me who don't have to commute to work anymore.  Even if you only live a couple of miles from your workplace, you're going to drive more than 10 miles/week.  Add in those trips to the Food Superstore to pick up a bottle of milk you forgot on the way home or a six-pack of Sam Adams Boston Lager, you're easily over 20 miles for the week, and that's just the weekdays.  On the weekends you gotta chauffer the kids around to their various activities and play dates.

For the high end folks clocking in at over 1000 miles/week, if that is just for commuting purposes I feel truly sorry for these folks.  5 days/week they are stuck in their car for two 100 mile journeys across the Interstate and through traffic, taking a likely minimum of 2 hours each way.  There's a great way to spend your time walking the earth! (or in this case, sitting & periodically rolling).  Some might also be professional drivers though, like taxi drivers or truck drivers.  When I was trucking, an average week would see me on the road for around 2500-3000 miles.

Needless to say, all this driving burns a LOT of Fossil Fuels, but at the moment it is pretty much unavoidable, for most people living inside Industrial Civilization.

Finishing off with the scurrying about Industrialized Homo Saps do each year is the issue of plane travel, another one which leaves you wide open to Hypocrisy criticisms if you are a self-proclaimed Greeny.  Here the critics have more validity, since about nobody really NEEDS to fly around in jets all over the world, even to do bizness.  There is little you cannot do via Teleconferencing these days, but even Dr. McStinksion flies across the globe to give lectures to his acolytes and let them know they are all hopelessly DOOMED.

In our survey, the plurality of Kollapsniks don't fly at all, at 38% (141 Respondents).  Another 44% only fly once or twice a year, I fit in that category weighing in for an average of once a year.  Some years I don't fly at all, other years, two plane trips but overall it's about once a year.

Then you have the cohort of Jet Setters getting molested by the TSA Goons 3-6 times a year.  For the most part in my Guesstimation, these are the upper middle class and moderately rich people who take several vacations every year to Snorkel in places like the Virgin Islands and to Ski the Deep Powder in the Rockies.  These people are now starting to burn some serious amounts of Jet Fuel.  Finally you have your filthy rich people who are flying anywhere from 7 and up times a year, who knows maybe even in Private Jets.  We have a couple of respondents in that category here, more on that next week when I chart out some of the demographics of Kollapsniks.  If you just look at the folks from 7 & Up flights though,  they burn more fuel than the whole cohort of people flying once a year or less!  One rich fuck can put a shit load of carbon into the atmosphere every year, no problem.  It's chump change for these folks!

Can we/will we stop the flying around before TEOTWAWKI arrives?  Also unlikely.  It's not quite as built in to the culture or as necessary as the driving is, but it's close especially for people at the upper end who have high maintenance lifestyles and have come to expect this freedom of travel to far flung places.  I personally do not feel guilty when I board a jet plane to haul my crippled ass down to the Lower 48.  That's just how it goes in the waning days of Industrial Civilization.  Everybody Knows.

See you again next week here on the Doomstead Diner for more fun Stats about Kollapniks.  Coming Soon to a Laptop Near You.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Collapse Survey Update: The Gender & Religion Gap

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 30, 2018

Discuss this analysis at the Survey Table inside the Diner

 

Survey now @ 400 Respondents

Survey STILL OPEN.  Submit your Opinions HERE

 

I had intended to make this update about the Energy results coming out of the survey, but this data is already too much to do a decent overview on  in such a short time and I am going to put it off until I close the Survey.  So I am focusing today on a smaller demographic area of the Survey, the Gender question and the Religion question.

Before I do that though I want to express my Gratitude to the submitters who have made this survey the most statistically significant one I have ever done, surpassing even the Human Extinction Survey.  These respondents come from 4 Collapse Websites primarily:

#1- Reddit r/collapse @ 139 Submissions

#2- The Burning Platform @ 92 Submissions

#3- Cassandra's Legacy @ 79 Submissions

#4- The Doomstead Diner @ 50 Submissions

Several other collapse websites submitted responses as well, but these were the only 4 in the double digits, to date.  Total submissions now from all websites is over 400 now.  REMEMBER THE 400! You will be one of those who were counted as the End of Industrial Civilization became apparent.  This is a highly significant sample of the Collapse Blogosphere, I will write in more detail about that when I begin the full analysis of the survey, which is going to take quite some time to do.  The survey remains OPEN at this time, you can still get your last minute Opinions in here before I take the tally and start to work on figuring out what (if anything) this all means.

First we have a BIG PROBLEM.  We have a Gender and Religion Gap!

 

For today, I am just going to look at two curious Demographic results, concerning Gender and Religion.  The Doughnut Charts are up at the top of the page for reference. (this snapshot taken a couple of days ago with respondents around 250.  Percentages haven't changed significantly since)  Up first, the Gender Gap.

Where have all the Females Gone?

In the demographic study, the Collapse Blogospere turns up 13% Females, 84% Males and 2% LGBTQ or Other, all self-identified descriptions of course.  This percentage is actually remarkably consistent across all the surveys we have run across all websites, including the previous largest survey on Near Term Human Extinction.

On the Diner, I have often been blamed for the lack of female participants, because I am a self-identified and declared Monast, a Spiritually-driven Panentheist Hermit-Monk, Celibate now for the last 20 years.  I have also fairly often been accused of Misogyny, which just isn't true.  I don't hate women any more than I hate men, or LGBTQs either.  In the words of Don Rickles, I hate them all equally. lol.  It's also quite a stretch to believe I drive all the wimmen off of all the Collapse Websites just by showing up there. lol.

So WHY is it there are so few women-folk haunting the Collapse Blogosphere?  There certainly are plenty-o-females on the net, you find them all over the cooking sites (which I haunt also of course, which you would suspect if you read my periodic SNAP Card Gourmet articles  or the Diner Menu inside the Diner.  I love cooking and among my many other professions I was a professional chef), and they are all over the permie sites and homesteading sites also.  But NOT on the Doomer sites themselves.  My basic answer to this question is that the Commentariat on Collapse websites is highly contentious, often enough it devolves into an all-out Bar Fight or Napalm Contest.  Wimmen don't really like to engage in this sort of thing in general.  At least not like the wimmen in the gif at right here. lol.

The other more deeply psychological reason I can come up with is that females simply don't like to contemplate TEOTWAWKI scenarios, hordes of rampaging Zombies, loading up their bras with Gold Coins to secure against Hyper-Inflation, etc. You would need a seriously good wire supported push-up bra for this task, maybe you should look for one on smile.amazon.com?  Be sure to drop the Sustaining Universal Needs Foundation of Boiling Springs, SC as your designated Charity. 🙂  But that is just a WAG anyhow, I have no numbers to back up that hypothesis. lol.  If you have a good rationale for this Gender Gap in Collapse, please drop it in Inside the Diner and let me know what it is.

Where have all the Muslims Gone?

Related imageThey haven't all gone to graveyards yet, based on the number of beheadings and suicide bombings going on around the globe anyhow.  Allahu  Akbar!

To date, with well over 400 submissions from all over the world and several pretty popular Collapse Focused Websites weighing in, not one single believer in the Koran and Islam has weighed in here with an opinion.  Yes that's right folks, a religion currently commanding the belief system of roughly 1.5B Homo Saps has ABSOLUTE ZERO representation in this survey!

According to a 2010 study and released January 2011, Islam has 1.5 billion adherents, making up over 22% of the world population.

Islam is also the world's fastest growing Religion and projected to take over the globe demographically by 2060

Related image

Now, even the Unitarian-Universalists, a totally microscopic religion I was born into drew in 3 submitters.  Panentheism which I now subscribe to got two submitters, me and somebody else.  I wasn't even sure anybody else even knew what Panentheism is and how it differs from Pantheism either!  Apparently though, there is at least one other person out there who is another believer.  Who is that guy (gal)?

The question remains though, WHY are there no Muslims contributing to this survey?  Besides all the Muslims currently living in war torn contries being bombed back to the Stone Age by the FSoA who probably don't have internet access at the moment, there are still plenty-o-Muslims who have emmigrated to European Countries and the FSoA over the last 50 years or so.

 

Global Religious Distribution

Image result for europe religions

FSoA Religious Distribution

Image result for us religions

The Immigration Wave

Image result for Self described religion in the European Union (2012)[17]

Image result for religious distribution usa

Now, I'm not looking to fire up you xenophobes & racists out there (well, maybe I am. lol. good for the total numbers.) but the fact is there are many Muslims in the West with access to a computer and an internet connection, certainly a far greater number than the numbe of Unitarian-Universalists and Panentheists anyhow.  So WTF don't they VOTE? Is it a violation of Sharia Law or something?

The reason for the Religion Gap is about as big a Mystery to me as the Gender Gap, so if any of you readers out there has some deeper insight into this, please post it up Inside the Diner for the Diners to chew on.  It's a really deep topic and I am sure we can get a really good Bar Fight out of it.  Just remember if you do drop in that we don't follow the Marquis de Queensbury rules inside the Diner, and I personally do not fight fair. I'm the fucking Admin. LOL.

2019 Collapse Survey: Kollapsniks are Well Educated!

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 26, 2018

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

 

Survey still OPEN

Current Response Totals: 175 Respondents

Update 12/26/2018 9:00AM AST: 200 Respondents

Respond to the Collapse Survey Here

 

One of the things I find most interesting about doing these Surveys is finding out just what the Demographic composition of Doomers are.  I'll have a lot more information on this after the Survey closes, but for today we'll just look at the Education level of people who are Collapse Aware enough to be looking for information on various websites around the internet concerned with these topics.

Image result for millennials with cell phones The survey doesn't concern itself with the Clueless Hordes out there with no concept of what is ongoing, and it doesn't even sample everybody who has some grasp of Collapse.  It only samples people who haunt a variety of collapse oriented websites and may have seen a link for the survey.  How many people that actually is I'll try to estimate after I have all my data compiled.  However, regardless of total population here, this sample already is pretty good, although of course it could be better the more people who fill it out, so if you haven't done so yet, GET TO IT and BE COUNTED!  Survey will close after New Year's, once I get over my Hangover and can get the computer turned back on. lol

Now, while there are 175 TOTAL respondents to the survey as of now, not every respondent answers every question, and that's OK.  On the Political level, there are only questions about Amerikan Electoral Politics, specifically about the possibilities for POTUS candidates in 2020.  Some early criticisms came in that the Survey is too "Americentric", but that's not true.  Only a few of the questions concern themselves with the Political Sewer ongoing in the FSoA.  Most of the questions apply generally no matter where you live.  I couldn't possibly list all the candidates in all the countries now undergoing collapse issues, it would be ridiculously unwieldy even if I knew who they all were and I don't.  I don't live in those places, I live on the Last Great Frontier of Alaska, nominally a part of the FSoA although not connected to it by land.  Besides that, most of the readers of these English Language blogs come from English speaking countries, and most of those are from Amerika.  So I'm sorry if your country's politics are not included here, but just skip those questions and go to the Collapse Focused ones.  You can submit the survey just the same, it doesn't matter.  You just aren't counted on Amerikan Political questions is all.

One of the most interesting things so far that I can see (anybody can see it, you don't have to be a mathematical genius for this) is how well-educated Kollapsniks are relative to the the level of the typical Amerikan.  The education level of Doomers surveyed appears in the graph at the top of the page.  Now let's compare that to the general education level of the FSoA Population as Surveyed by the US Census Bureau:

Image result for educational attainment in the us

As you can see, the percentage of the FSoA that has a Bachelor's Degree or better totals up to 30%.  Now total up the percentages in those categories for Kollapsniks.  An ASTOUNDING 64% of Kollapsniks have a Bachelor's Degree or Better!  That is more than double the percentage of the average member of this society, so it should be little wonder that what Kollapsniks think doesn't match what the general population thinks in aggregate, on just about any topic at all related to collapse.  Also why you as a Kollapsnik may find it difficult to convey these ideas to friends and relatives.

What is even MOAR astounding than that once  you get into some of the responses made by this well-educated Cohort of Doomers are some of the response they generated along the way.  There are several questions I find it hard to believe what either the majority or the plurality of these folks think is true.  However, I'm going to wait on looking at and analysing the results of those questions in detail until after I close the survey.  It is a shit load of data and I only wanna have to do it once.  I'm not the blackboard wizard and numbers cruncher I was as a Yute, and I don't have so much time left Walking the Earth I wanna use it up doing a lot of detailed statistical analysis.  However, if you are a numbers cruncher with some verifiable credentials, I'll provide you all the raw data and we can collaborate on more detailed view of the numbers.  You can CONTACT me on the Doomstead Diner, and send your email to me and I will get back to you.

Sunday we will look at a few more of the questions, specifically those addressing the Energy issues faced as Industrial Civilization works its way deeper into the toilet.  The Full recap will come either the following Sunday or the week after that, depending on when I actually close it and how detailed I end up getting on my analysis. How many miles do you think knowledgeable and Collapse Aware Doomers drive their internal combustion carz every week?  How often do they fly on Airplanes each year?  Inquiring minds want to know.

 

Meanwhile, you still have time to get your votes in and get your voice (or keyboard strokes in this case) heard.  Click the LINK to the Survey and let us know what you think.

Merry Collapsemass and a Happy Doom Year!

Ho Ho Ho.

New Collapse Survey: Best Collapse Survival Locations & World’s Worst City Survey Results

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on August 11, 2015

Visit the COLLAPSE.GLOBAL Portal for Links & Daily Updates from around the Collapse Blogosphere

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Discuss these results at the Surveys Table inside the Diner

Last week we surveyed the KollapsniksTM on where the WORST places to be as Collapse moves around the Globe.  Results for last week's survey are down at the bottom of this page.

For this week we look at choices for the BEST place to park yourself would be.

https://www.ctbto.org/uploads/tx_ctbtoslider/HA09_007.jpg

Tristan de Cunha, Edinburgh of the Seven Seas

Take the Best Collapse Location Survey HERE

For last week's survey, once again there were some surprising results..

Not too surprising was Las Vegas was ranked worst, because most respondents come from the FSoA and they are mostly Kollapsniks well aware of the water problems in Vegas.

http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/v2_article_large/public/2015/04/22/lake-mead-1.jpg

However, Sao Paolo has worse water problems already, but was ranked 3rd below Mexico City.  I also found it surprising New York Shity was ranked above Phoenix as worse.  Phoenix has the same water problem as Vegas, NY still has decent water supply.  Also, as center of Finance, the economy in NY still is kind of functioning.

It's also hard to imagine how Baghdad can be ranked less worse than NY?  It's a fucking war zoe already AND a desert!

My guess here is the survey respondents stopped after making acouple of selections because it is too long.   Future Surveys will have fewer choices.

World's Worst Cities Survey Results:

  1 2 3 4 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
Las Vegas 4
(12.12%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
1.04 33 9.76 / 36
Mexico City 1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
1.48 33 10.15 / 36
Sao Paolo 1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
3
(9.09%)
0
(0%)
1.3 33 10.39 / 36
Los Angeles 1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
3
(9.09%)
1
(3.03%)
1.14 33 10.91 / 36
Beijing 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1.34 33 11.18 / 36
New York 8
(24.24%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
0
(0%)
1.46 33 12.48 / 36
Phoenix 1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
0.98 33 12.52 / 36
Delhi 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.09%)
1
(3.03%)
1.11 33 13.48 / 36
Chicago 1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
0.95 33 14 / 36
Rio de Janeiro 1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1.14 33 14.7 / 36
Baghdad 10
(30.3%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
2
(6.06%)
2.07 33 14.7 / 36
London 0
(0%)
5
(15.15%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.09%)
1.14 33 14.82 / 36
Moscow 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
3
(9.09%)
0.92 33 15.33 / 36
Calcutta 2
(6.06%)
4
(12.12%)
1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
1.28 33 15.85 / 36
Houston 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
1.23 33 15.88 / 36
Singapore 1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
0.92 33 16.36 / 36
Riyadh 1
(3.03%)
5
(15.15%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1.57 33 17.3 / 36
Berlin 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
3
(9.09%)
3
(9.09%)
0.98 33 17.67 / 36
Miami 0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1.32 33 18.09 / 36
Dallas/Ft. Worth 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
1.42 33 18.3 / 36
Tokyo 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.11 33 19.36 / 36
Detroit 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
0
(0%)
1.32 33 20.76 / 36
Nairobi 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1.36 33 20.79 / 36
Tel Aviv 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1.34 33 20.94 / 36
Delhi 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
4
(12.12%)
1.28 33 21.03 / 36
Tehran 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1.34 33 21.24 / 36
Sydney 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.14 33 21.97 / 36
Athens 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.4 33 22.36 / 36
Madrid 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.59 33 24.21 / 36
Paris 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.4 33 24.67 / 36
Caracas 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1.55 33 25.24 / 36
Buenos Aires 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1.62 33 26.06 / 36
Wellington/Christchurch 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1.55 33 26.27 / 36
Lisbon 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.52 33 27.3 / 36
Helsinki 0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1.74 33 28.82 / 36
Honolulu 1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2.51 33 31.09 / 36

 

Collapse 2019 Survey: In the Words of the Kollapsniks

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Published on The Doomstead Diner February 3, 2019

Discuss this article at the Surveys Table inside the Diner

 

Survey still OPEN

Survey now @ 648 Submissions

Get your Opinion Counted  before you Go Extinct

We have begun the rather long and tedious process of digesting all the data accumulated in the 2019 Collapse Survey, which is to say the least COPIOUS.

Of interest to me first here was what Kollapsniks themselves had to say about how they thought about all these things in the Open Answer question at the end.  For this type of question, you can't really do a Quantitative Analysis, it's a Qualitative  impression that you get from reading the answers.  I was interested to see who took the questions seriously, and who just wrote snarky comments?  What websites did they come from?  If you read through these comments, you can figure that out for yourself and it is no surprise to me at all of course. lol.  Still, there are quite a few worthwhile and thoughtful comments and thoughts sprinkled in between the snark.

Here then, in the words of the Kollapsniks themselves is the story of the Collapse of Industrial Civilization as it will play out into the future.

 

20. ​On what website did you find a link to the 2019 Collapse Survey? 40. ​You may add your own comments and projections for Collapse in 2019 and beyond here
   
Reddit r/collapse Upcoming stair steps in the ongoing collapse: 2019 financial crisis, ~2025 global peak oil, ~2030 peak natural gas, ~2035 global average temperature anomaly of 1.5C.
Truth Dig (Chris Hedges) Smoke weed everyday
Reddit r/collapse People have the capacity to change things, but there's little hope that people will make meaningful change until things become visible on a level that directly impedes their day-to-day existence, at which point it'll probably be much too late. My main question is whether or not those who survive the collapse are able to build a new society that learns from the mistakes of ours.
Doomstead Diner Keep up the good work in 2019, best wishes for happiness in the darkening clouds of collapse!
Reddit r/collapse I have flown. It is not every year. Three times in my life return.
The Burning Platform Things are not getting better. Things will only get worse and they're getting worse at a quicker pace. We, Humans world wide, are in trouble within the next 2-5 years.
The Burning Platform The spectrum of subversive activities against the American people continues. Television, newspaper, radio, and mainstream media online outlets are relentlessly skewing and twisting information a particular way. Our people will need to recognize the threats to their health are constant and on multiple fronts. Long term power outages, interrupted services, and contaminated foods will be an increasing challenge in everyday life in the future.
The Burning Platform We are a morally bankrupt society
The Burning Platform You don't define or ask for a definition of what collapse is, in my opinion
The Burning Platform Slowly increasing collapse to 2025. Dramatic increase to 2030. Beginning of truly dire effects of climate change. Period of disease, violence starvation to 2070. Gradual adjustment to new circumstances. All varying in timeframe by area of the world.
The Burning Platform The future is the Left isn't stomped on: https://theamericansun.com/2018/12/16/pissearth-2025/
The Burning Platform Grab your ankles!
Ugo Bardi's The Seneca Effect FB group The most practical, lowest-tech renewable energy technology wasn't even on your list! Add solar thermal and passive solar buildings, FFS.
Facebook. I look forward to seeing the results.
Feedly Civil war and dissolution of the USA. Diversity + Proximity = War.
The Burning Platform TPTP are trying to take us into a planned collapse in 2019 to bring in Chaos and implement their NWO. Trump is trying to stop them and with God's help, the Deep State will end up in jail. The Super Grand Solar Minimum starts in a couple years and will be worse than the Little Ice Age; it will be a trial of Mankind almost like that of the Dinosaurs.
The Burning Platform Economic depression by 2020
The Burning Platform I am an unemployed Ph.D. I have been seeking full time employment for over 6 years. I survive through a combination of low paid part time jobs and public assistance. The welfare system is dysfunctional. The government is corrupt and dysfunctional. American corporations are corrupt and dysfunctional. I do not hold out a lot of hope for the future of the U.S. This country will collapse like the Soviet Union. However, the American people, unaccustomed to real hardship and lacking a sense of communal cohesion, will not fare as well as Russia did when it collapsed. There will be violence and bloodshed. The elites may launch a nuclear war rather than risk potential revolution.
The Burning Platform big problems ahead
The Burning Platform Economic reset
The Burning Platform You may have regional issues. But beyond open revolution things should stay fairly calm globally. Could be chaotic in localities.
The Burning Platform the human race is a virus
Reddit r/collapse I believe it is impossible to guess when we will go extinct
Reddit r/collapse I believe that progress on reducing starvation and malnutrition will be undone by famine and ecosystem collapse, particularly fish stocks. It may lead to mass migration in 5-10 years time.
The Burning Platform Peak prosperity website
The Burning Platform Better have some preps
The Burning Platform Collapse is U.S. and Europe specific
The Burning Platform bullshit
Doomstead Diner Your questions seem pretty biased towards "normal" people. Your ranking questions REALLY need a "stop here" option! Other questions sorely need an "other" option, such as #39, which I simply can't relate to — I have no investments, but can last indefinitely on the food I grow.
Reddit r/collapse I submitted part of the survey yesterday but got cut off in the middle due to accidentally hitting the "done" button. You should be able to tell which one it was by the similarity of the answer about nuclear. The POTUS candidates and the websites in the middle rankings will be different because I am unfamiliar with some of these and ranked highest and lowest by what I'd heard of.
The Burning Platform Balkanization of the USA with local/regional civil unrest.
face book link? Economic collapse seems inevitable but after a period of hardship with perhaps some chaos people will reorganize and be much more self sufficient.
Doomstead Diner You don't understand the term net worth. The question above references cash reserves, not net worth.
Doomstead Diner TV dinners are never a good choice
economic undertow Severe depression in 2019. Followed by lack of recovery due to resource depletion followed by war.
Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg) I believe initial collapse will be a financial one caused by  falling net energy. B. W. Hill has a believable model for one… or Dr. Morgan's SEEDS model. Broken supply chains, empty gas tanks and store shelves leading to a root hawg or die  Mad Max scenario. Get your sand rail and assless chaps ready now. Good luck…I need a drink.
The Burning Platform  
Doomstead Diner In the western world: lower living standards for most (taxes, food and energy costs), corresponding increase in petty crime (e.g. theft, trespass), more heavy-handed actions by state enforcers against the public, more corporate crimes and corruption without accountability. Cheers.
Doomstead Diner Reason Colin Powell write-in is order is needed, and I don't think he's a puppet of the elite. (am dual citizen/Canada; in US as grandkids are here)
Was sent a link I am honestly anticipating a more realistic "zombie apocalypse" in which some aggressive disease destroys the bulk of humanity. I'm betting on a mutated rabies or superflu.
Doomstead Diner What source of energy can provide the needed met energy? If it’s not nuclear fission or fusion then it’s nothing.
Economic Undertow (Steve Ludlum) They had it coming, they had it coming, all along. As you have been there, as you have seen it, we'll have all just done the same.
Reddit r/collapse Most of the questions have a built-in assumption that collapse is a reality….that's not a good survey approach and skews questions and answers.
Reddit r/collapse A staircase of tipping points that we never recover from as things get progressively worse.
Reddit r/collapse 12 years til apocalypse
Doomstead Diner Interesting too us focused as usual. Net worth question not enough categories.
Reddit r/collapse Here's hoping for a better one. Question 24 has all of it happening at once; we're ranking in minutes and not years.
Reddit r/collapse collapse is 'things getting very bad for most people ' , more dystopia / hardship that the elites will be able to avoid.
Reddit r/collapse A continued slow decline. The markets look shakey but at too hard to predict on any short term absis.
Reddit r/collapse humans have raped the earth and all its creatures, what can I say…
Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg) Most likely collapse will be slower than we suspect – my guess is collapse has already started (started in 2008) and will last 100+ years. I don't expect to retire though (I'm 31).
Where is Economic Undertow? Impoverishing the masses is simply conservation by other means. Wish the Breeders would…. STOP! But it ain't gonna happen. Collapse will be sudden and suck. At that point – I quit! No more electricity – gas – hot water – sewer or water….. and I think people forgot…. the diseases from the past will ravage populations when the sewage system quits…. https://theplumber.com/plagues-epidemics/ And besides – where I live – Ra(t)cine WI – it's gangbangers, Section 8, Single Mothers, and overpaid/compensated and early retired Gubbermint workers. Low slave wage paying jobs – lots of potential workers – but none who want to work. Lots of homeless – and Illinois keeps sending up more Gangsters for us to arrest – incarcerate – and provide free room and board for – with mighty expensive prisoner guards. I can make it check to check – and I live cheap! As for the Fox-Scam – it's all a Politicians lie: https://concernedracinecountyresidentsjustsaynotofoxconn.wordpress.com/2018/11/17/will-foxconn-lift-up-se-wi-or-lead-to-its-collapse/
Reddit r/collapse Die off
Doomstead Diner Human slave labor?
Doomstead Diner Monetary system Collapse is the most immediate threat, but monetary reformers are raising awareness about the banks’ debt-based money supply creation monopoly, and the simple solution of debt-free money issuance that can prevent monetary Collapse. The nutjobs in Washington could start a nuclear war. The pharmaceutical-industrial complex is already setting the stage for mass disease via poisonous vaccines. The aquifers are being pumped dry so water will be in short supply even before we run short of oil for energy. Climate change is happening, but not from us emitting CO2. A solar or cosmic event could annihilate us, before any of the man-made catastrophes have a chance to do it. Meanwhile in China, the people are feeling prosperous and optimistic because they live in a rising society while we live in a declining society.
Doomstead Diner It is a good time to be old(65). The insects are rare as are the migratory birds. My garden becomes less productive each year. Friends and family are dying of cancers and autoimmune diseases. The weather in South Carolina is bizarre. My hope is fading.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) In 2019, we'll see increasing global unrest, a massive global recession, a couple new conflicts overseas, and one or two catastrophic climate-related disasters.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) As Niels Bohr is credited with saying: Making predictions is hard, especially if they're about the future.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) yup
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Nuclear weapons in the hands of despots during tumultuous energy scarce times is IMO the highest impact risk, aside from the slow grinding flywheel effect from climate change
Reddit r/collapse We are screwed.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Collapse unlikely in 2019 (absent nuclear war) but certain before 2050.
Doomstead Diner The american centric aspect of this survey means a lot of it does not apply to my circumstances. I've seen on the doomstead site but needed to sign up to participate so I'm glad that Ugo posted it here.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Elect Sam Carana! http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Reddit r/collapse Wish there were more opportunities for jobs to report on collapse or work to solve the problems. Also wish people would organize more and try to bring down the system that’s rapidly killing the natural world. This is the only planet we know that harbors life and were killing it.
Reddit r/collapse Good luck, homo sapiens is fucked
The Burning Platform I live on a small working farm and strive for self sufficiency daily. I have no debt and believe in hard assets, outside the Banksters as much as possible. My world view is Biblical. I'm a well armed clinger to quote the Petculent One.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) 2025 to 2030 probable range in my opinion. Many steps to collapse takes time. See a succession of regional collapses with migration, much pain and suffering, starvation, disease and violence. Sorry.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) believe gradual but bumpy decline in living standards
The Automatic Earth (Roel Mueller) The 1st world is in for a rude awakening,
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) I can't spend to much more time on projections for Collapse. I've run through pretty much all the scenarios I could over time, and the only thing of which I'm absolutely certain is that our current thermo-industrial civilisation is in ICU and about to flatline.
I work with other people in my community to try and find ways to leave something to work with for the people who will inherit whatever is left. A Buddhist text suggests that bodhisattvas live always with "their own death hanging like a pendant on their forehead." While I wouldn't call myself a Buddhist…I try to do that.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Looks like we are in an early stage of this collaps. But I guess that we have to expect more and more chaos in the years ahed…
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Question 24 is hard to rank because the triggers are contingent and most of those things are interrelated. The kinds of problems we face are much easier to predict that the timing.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Humans may have pockets of life remaining after the climate destroys the ability to grow food but these will slowly decrease until there are no more people.
Doomstead Diner I plan to eat stupid people when things get bad; The only truly renewable resource…
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) We won't have long – the many religious zealots, big business types, insane idiots, uneducated, stupids are making terrible decisions that will curtail the future for all of us all too soon.
Doomstead Diner REDUNDANCY is the only way to succeed in nature. The most resilient animals have a variety of ways to do the same thing (eg: omnivores, amphibians), whereas niche animals are done when the niche is gone. Humans may yet manage to build a bridge across this huge cavernous hole we've dug ourselves BUT only if we build into a new system the most REDUNDANT ways to do EVERYTHING all of the time, in every area of our lives.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) The collapse of global energy use is very likely to remove the danger of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.
The Burning Platform Markets remain volatile. Downsizing continues in businesses and eventually (within a few years) in government at last. Housing equities will drop as millions upon millions of boomers' homes flood the market when they retire and debt-ridden millenials, sans children and/or spouses, can't afford them. War is inevitable somewhere as the MIC fights to keep their coffers full–one of these wars will eventually put us near a WW3 type decision. The FSoA need to quit poking the Bear–eventually it will have had enough and quit taking "the high road" and retaliate or join the fray. Weather will be as it has been for thousands of years, cold spells, warm spells, floods, fires, hurricanes– if the solar minimum is as "Grand" as some predict, it may get much colder and food shortages as well as diseases may become larger issues than currently.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Political, financial, social, cultural collapse is well under way as far as I can tell
The Burning Platform Hopefully, the Deep State goes down to a crushing defeat in 2019 as TINVOWOOT
Economic undertow I am hopeful that further financial chicanery can keep BAU going for a while longer. Once the jumbo conventional fields go into accelerated decline (likely 5-7% per annum), I think BAU is done.
Reddit r/collapse It can only go worse from here. Capitalism can't find a way out of the hole it has dug all of humanity into.
Economic Undertow Collapse is slow and ongoing. Things will get worse in 2019 but it isn't the end yet. Would love to see more states legalize cannabis!
Economic Undertow I expect a continued erosion and slide toward collapse.
The Burning Platform 2nd Great Depression is due. Followed by ww3. Non-nuclear conflict, until possibly its very end. New global order arises after. Sometime before 2100, another religious war – Christians et al. Vs sharia imposing Muslims.
Face book link? Society will survive until the weather patterns change enough to significantly reduce world-wide food production. People who live off the land might be able to survive for hundreds of years.
Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg) None
Truth Dig (Chris Hedges) Collapse is now. Ongoing. I think Dimitry Orlov said- It's just not evenly distributed yet. There are NO solutions except individual adaptation. Our capacity for organization and consensus decreases daily. Those with the most invested in the ongoing omnicide also have the most guns, bombs, missiles, and the predisposition to use them, being straight up psychopaths. They will actively and effectively challenge any attempt to turn collapse around. There is no guaranteed strategy for survival.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Should be a rebound after first wave mass population drop collapse but worsening climate change will see a nuclear war
Reddit r/collapse This shit is making me depressed
Doomstead Diner It's definitely tough for older Americans to find employment especially in high tech.
Truth Dig (Chris Hedges) My main concern used to be environmental collapse, but the rapidity with which politics has replaced religion in the psyche of the average citizen of the "advanced nations" leads me to believe that something like a Holy War between the barely distinguishable factions of postmodern centrism may destroy large parts of the human race before total ecological collapse. I vacillate between fearing this outcome, and embracing a nuclear war premised on the narcissism of small differences as the only true hope for whatever remains of humanity in its wake. The most likely future that I can imagine is one that resembles the Black Mirror episode "Metalhead," in which automated systems of property defense have hunted mankind to extinction, and the last living human will die at the hands of machines in the name of the great god Property.
Truth Dig (Chris Hedges) A great or lesser depopulation seems likely. A re imagining of our specie will be necessary in any case.
https://www.economic-undertow.com/ I take history is my model and note that even after the Roman empire had clearly failed and become something entirely different many people hadn't gotten the message. We may be in the same trajectory, yeah everything will eventually be different and poorer and even, by current standards, post apocolyptic but they won't know and I will be gone by at least a few decades.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) "…slowly, then all at once…"
Reddit r/collapse everday feels hopeless and i struggle with suicidal thoughts knowing that i will most likely be collapse fodder.
facefart I can't last indefinitely on savings but I have over 3 years of savings. 10+. I'm lucky, not smart, clever, or ruthless.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) See Margaret Atwood's MaddAddam trilogy.
Reddit r/collapse This survey was way too American centric to bother trying to answer everything. And those ranking questions are impossible on phone.
Reddit r/collapse Keep up the good work and the discussion. There's a lot to be said. I've gotten past the worst and try to live a life of excellence knowing that stuff is going to get worse, while I still invest and save and work hard toward a future that may not arrive, I also work toward self sufficiency and farming and prepping for whatever happens down the road.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) I think we will face hard times and a population decline, but my thinkings on collapse are inflected by reading works by the likes of Joanna Macy, Charles Eisenstein, and Bayo Akomolafe. That is, I believe there is emergence and renewal in crisis.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Question 27: There could be pockets of more advanced technology co-existing with much lower levels on average for quite some time. I expect something like a new feudalism to arise, perhaps with some legacy technology of an unpredictable nature. Question 39 doesn't have enough options. Who knows whether Social Security will be available in 20 years, and at my age anything (bad) can happen. I can't live, or last indefinitely, but at my age I don't have more than a couple decades left at best, and I can probably survive anything short of a major catastrophe for 20 year or more if I live that long and if my health holds out. (I'm old enough to retire, lucky enough to have a job, and too pessimistic to quit).
I think I'm mostly in agreement with Michael Greer in my view of the future. In my opinion the date of collapse or substantial decline is totally indeterminate at this time. Probably very serious, probably irreversible problems will arise by 2050; most of the world will be in an extremely distressed state by 2100, but with a few pockets of some affluence remaining, and probably nothing like "total" collapse until 2200 or later. After that is anyone's guess. Depends on how many bad (or less likely good) decisions are made in the next 25 – 30 years, or whether there is nuclear war or a major pandemic. When things get bad enough those with enough to lose may allow change and probably have enough collective power to keep the human race going at a much lower technological level, though probably too little too late. Things are still salvageable, but we are quickly running out of time to make meaningful adjustments.
Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg) Not in 2019 but it's effects will be visible for public in te fall 2019
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Stop the growth of the world population …. immediately
The Automatic Earth (Roel Mueller) Since you reference a large variety of blogs worldwide , you could be less US centric. eg regions.thanks for the blog list. The sorting function while cool was a PITA. I tried but it wasn't the the final I wwould have chosen.
Reddit r/collapse A long boring and slow collapse provided we do not nuke ourselves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capitalism continues to push BAU for as long as the masses allow it.

 

Basically, we run ourselves into the ground with hubris, and denialism.

 

Things are bad in developing nations.

 

For the developed world, things get truly crazy in the 2030's

Doomstead Diner Too many mooks. They need to be exterminated. This will happen. Then we can go for the stars, our destiny.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) There is too much we don't know, how much accessable, affordable fossil resources are left?, will we bumble into nuclear war?, will we be overrun by illegal migrants?, will our crops soon fail leading to mass starvation?, will the ecosystem fail because we have destroyed too much of it?
The oceans are dying, birds, whales & other sea life is being starved to death with bellies full of indigestable PLASTIC, the O2 level is declining even as the C02 & methane levels are rising, insects are a keystone species, I see very few insects or spiders any more & Swallows don't breed here any longer.
We are in deep doo doo!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(BTW, I don't have a TV, radio here is almost non existent, we only have a small, local news paper twice a week. The internet is my main source of "news". I have no debt, no loans, no morgage, no children BY CHOICE, no family, all debts are paid up each month. "Voting" for corrupt politicians in fake, rigged "elections" is a waste of time. )

 

Americans are so dam IGNORANT & too many are STUPID, people here actually BELIEVE that there is an invisible "man" in the sky who "made" everything only 6000 years ago! No wonder we are doomed to collapse!

 

There are too dam many of us & more are on the way, without affordable OIL, we will not be able to feed 7.6 billion humans & oil is going away & those who believe that oil dependent "renewables" can replace oil are IDIOTS!
I wish they would stop pushing "renewables" as the solution to our overpopulation, energy, pollution & excessive demand delema, "renewables" are just another way to PROFIT from fossil resources.
What is needed is #1. BAN ONE USE PLASTICS, take down most dams, FORCE a drastic reduction of the human population, forced birth control/sterilizations as needed,( you can't reason with believers.) a drastic reduction in our use of fossil resources (rationing) & the training of millions of organic farmers & farm workers, break up mega factory "farms", we need to stop eating fish, eat less meat & stop buying stuff we don't actually NEED, ban clear cutting of our forests, end hunting & trapping, ban meat eating pets except working animals like sled dogs & cats to keep down pests in the barn. The young need to relearn the old ways of living on the land in in ballence with nature & our resources.

 

We will collapse & I do not expect us to reach that 10 billion, probably not even 8 billion, the few survivors if any, will have a tough time surviving in a world getting hotter each year with more droughts, more floods, more nasty weather of all stripes & diseases we can no longer treat or cure (diabetics are also doomed.) & with billions of desperate people migrating & struggling to survive any way they can.

 

Got a recipe for "long pig" the new "sustainable" meat?

 

Even worse than the stupidity & ignorance of most 'mericans are our stupid, greedy, IGNORANT RULERS who are still calling for more dam GROWTH!
Growth is the problem not the solution.

Reddit r/collapse  
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi)  
Economicundertow Log-log power law makes prediction difficult and imprecise. Collages will happen, it's the size of the Avalanche that is uncertain!
Economic Undertow Good survey but politics = irrelevant
economic undertow likely to be a rolling worldwide collapse due to economic, cultural, climatic, environmental, social and black swan catastrophes in unknown order, likely happening simultaneously at the present time.
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) http://www.lulu.com/shop/risa-bear/starvation-ridge/paperback/product-21383506.html
Doomstead Diner great survey!
Doomstead Diner the decline of the Roman empire was not obvious at the time – historians will decide the actual collapse year – assuming any are left alive !
surplus energy economics no comm
Reddit r/collapse Economic meltdown 2019~2020
Societal collapse by 2040
Reddit r/collapse I think we'll see some widespread social unrest in the U.S., probably with protests, maybe some riots and some military or militarized police response to them. There will be more and more homeless people, and we may see a sharp uptick in deaths from suicide, overdose, exposure, and starvation/malnutrition. We'll also see more murders by extremists, probably against people of color. It's possible we'll see a whole region or city fall under martial law if something significant happens, like L.A. running out of potable water. I think it's unlikely we'll see a total breakdown of rule of law in 2019.
Reddit r/collapse Collapse is slow and ruthless. The upper and middle classes must live on far less now or live on next to nothing in a few decades.
Reddit r/collapse short term societal collapse may lead to the freeing up of important resources which can lead to a technological rebound, that with optimal outcomes may see our survival in one form or another into the 22nd century. however this is unlikely
Reddit r/collapse Just pull yourself up by the bootstraps and get yourself into the parasitic ruling capitalist class so you can crush the dissenters with highly militarised police while you live luxuriously off the backbone of human suffering and misery.
Reddit r/collapse Nothing about diet or how much we are individually contributing (or not) to this mess? We'll see the rise of veganism as environmentally necessary, better for personal health and as the public comes around the obvious morality will creep into the spotlight. Still, this is all way too little, too late. But really, if you eat, drive, fly, have children, etc: what is your excuse and how do you excuse these evils while preaching any sort of moral high ground (ie: "I recycle but could never stop driving, that's taking it too far")
Reddit r/collapse 1) Interesting, but what's the point, really? 2) The survey questions and requests that allow for no "other response" are often too limited or leading.
Reddit r/collapse bumpy ride up ahead, mainly politically and economically
Doomstead Diner, but the link was bad so I accessed it from Economic Undertow  
Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg) Fun to speculate about, but unlikely that anyone will see it coming in the exact form it will take…
Reddit r/collapse born to die world is a fuck yeeet
Reddit r/collapse I'm afraid that a lot of people who have never really known true hardship, like starvation, is going to feel it these coming 20 years. That is going to kickstart a lot of other processes, like with everything else on earth.
Reddit r/collapse Low tech is the future! Negative growth economy!
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) Peak oil 2021-2, terminal decline of oil output recognized 2025 as it approaches 5%/yr. Rolling series of financial crisis as debt collapses throughout the 2020-2030 timeframe. The baseline scenerio of "Limits to Growth" will be surprising accurate.
Doomstead Diner collapse is 100% certain when is 100% uncertain
Cassandra's Legacy (Ugo Bardi) I believe a perfect storm of environmental stressors will be the proximate cause for collapse (i.e. Sixth Mass Extinction, Over-Population, Deforestation, Ocean Acidification, Coral Bleaching, Over-Fishing, Oceanic Dead Zones, Poaching, Desertification, Water scarcity, Resource Scarcity, Invasive Species, Emerging Diseases/Syndromes like Colony Collapse Disorder, White Nose Syndrome, Chytrid).
Economic Undertow The Car is the greatest threat to humanity.
Reddit r/collapse Many reasons for collapse in this survey that asked for ranking are relatively equal in probability of happening my estimate, but are also intertwined with each other, so once one happens the others will follow behind.
Doomstead Diner it's not looking good…

 

 

 

2019 Collapse Political and Attitude Survey

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 23, 2018

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2018 is coming to a close, and it's time once again to take a survey of Kollapsniks to see what their predictions are and their attitudes regarding Collapse as we move into 2019 and beyond.  These things change from year to year as Collapse progresses, just anecdotally based on my observations more people are becoming "Collpse Aware", and those who were already Collapse Aware are becoming more pessimistic.  However, without some data and numbers, it's hard to pinpoint the general attitudes and zeitgeist in the Collapse Community.  This survey is designed to get some of those numbers.

This statistical gathering expedition is considerably detailed, more so than any survey I have done before with the possible exception of the Human Extinction Survey I did a couple of years ago.  It covers a wider range of topics than that one did though, and has more Demographic Questions to try and get a better handle on the overall demographics of the Collapse Community.  One topic it does NOT cover in that deep detail (although there is some) is Economic aspects of Collapse.  This because I am working on a survey dedicated to this topic by itself, since it is my major focus as a Collapse Writer and Pundit.  I should have that survey ready to launch sometime in January of 2019.

Assuming we get enough respondents, I'll post prelminary results Sunday for the Diner Sunday Brunch article and end of year re-cap.  I'll keep the survey open though through January since we generally tend to get responses on these things trickling in for quite some time.

As usual, in all likelihood I forgot to ask some question that is burning in your mind about Collapse  or I forgot to provide a satisfatory enough answer for some question that actually IS on the survey.  I did put out the request for suggestions though Inside the Diner, but I didn't get a whole lot of help there.

All the questions on the survey are Optional, you don't have to answer a question if you don't want to but still want to fill out some of the survey.  The responses are anonymous, I'm not collecting IP addys or anything like that.  There is no financial benefit to me for this survey, or any cost to you to take it except in your time.  I estmate it will take anywhere from 20-40 minutes to fill out, depending how long you ponder on a question.

Please pass on a Link to the survey to your friends or on websites you participate on, or on your Blog if you run one.  The bigger the Sample Size we get, the more statistically significant the results become.

The Full Survey has 41 Questions and may take a while to load depending on your connection speed.  Hit the 🔽 Button at the bottom of the page until you finish and then hit the "2019 Collalpse Political Survey" button to submit.  You will get a confirmation page on your browser if it was successfully submitted.  You can also try accessing it directly at this LINK.

Thanks for your particpation and looking forward to seeing the responses roll in! 🙂  The Survey follows below.

 

SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN

 

Collapse Meat-o-Saurus Survey Results

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 16, 2018

 

…and the Winner is…

Image result for prime rib

…Prime Rib, Medium Rare

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The final days of the Conspicuous Consumption of Beef stuffed full of hormones, injected with antibiotics and fattened up in the Chicago Feed Lots are upon us, so I took this time to gather information on the preferences of the modern Amerikan Carnivore with a survey of favorite cuts, preparations and presentations of Almighty Steak.  "Beef.  It's what's for dinner."
 

The survey is now closed, if you didn't get your vote in in time, too fucking bad.  We got a statistically significant sample based on our estimated average weekly readership of around 500 pairs of independent homo sap eyeballs of around 500.  43 Diners responded to the Survey, and the results are pretty clear.  Ribeye Cut is the most preferred by Diners, prepared as a Prime Rib Roast.

Image result for bacon wrapped filet mignon with scotched mushrooms Ribeye took the Win by a significant margin, with Tenderloin coming in to Place,

Generally speaking, the results of the survey came out as I expected they would, with a few minor surprises along the way.  We got 43 respondents to this survey in a week, which is reasonably Statistically Significant with our estimated independent pairs of Homo Sap eyeballs reading the Diner each week at around 500.  By and large, Diners are Carnivores who have not taken the Politically Correct road of going Vegan and have a general demographic of white males, usually older.  For this demographic, the survey is probably pretty accurate on a larger sample size as well.  For this survey, we come in with a 95% Confidence Level and a 15% Margin of Error.

Ribeye took highest honors as the Winner against Tenderloin (aka Filet Mignon).  This didn't surprise me for a couple of reasons.  First is the PRICE.  While I can sometimes pick up a nice juicy, well marbled Ribeye for around $6/lb ON SALE up here in Alaska, I can NEVER get Tenderloin at less than $10/lb.  The other reason is the FAT content, which Amerikans are so fond of.  Ribeye is much fattier than Tenderloin, which is quite lean although more tender overall.  Because of all that fat, Ribeye also comes out better on the BBQ, a common method of prepararation most of the time since usually the only time you would cook a full Standing Rib Roast is for family gatherings.  However, the difference between Ribeye and Tenderloin was a little less than I thought it would be.

On meat Done-ness, the majority of Diners prefer their meat Medium Rare, with Rare in 2nd, Medium Rare in 3rd and Medium Welldone finishing out of the money in 4th.  Welldone didn't even finish the race, NOBODY likes their steak welldone at the Diner!  Who wants to eat Shoeleather for Dinner?

Image result for beef carpaccio Responses to Question #3, "Do you ever eat beef raw?" really surprised me.  42% of respondents answered "Yes" to this question!  I have never been together with someone for a meal who admitted to me they liked eating raw meat.  My mom of course warned me that eating raw meat was unhealthy and you shouldn't do it, but the first time I pinched off some fresh ground beef bound for the Hamburger Grill, I was HOOKED!  In terms of getting this delicacy at restaurants, usually you only find it at top end French Restaurants in the form of Steak Tartare or in Italian restaurants as Beef Carpaccio.  I'm more of a fan of the Beef Carpacio for this meal.

Question #4 was a bit of a surprise as well, in asking whether the Carnivores preferred a Prime Rib preparation for Ribeye or Grilled on the BBQ as Ribey Steaks?  Prime Rib did win out on this, but not by as large a margin as I expected.  I attribute this mainly to the fact that BBQ Ribeye Steak is the way most people eat it most of the time because of the number of people you need to be serving for dinner to buy a whole Rib Roast, and to buy Prime Rib at a restaurant for yourself is EXPENSIVE.  It's usually one of the highest priced dishes on any menu.  Prime Rib preparation though is substantially juicier and even for me who totally loves BBQ Beef, given the choice I would take Prime Rib.

Most Carnivore Diners prefer their Tenderloin cooked over the Open Flame on a Grill, I myself tend to prefer this cut sauteed in a pan with Butter, Garlic and Mushrooms.  Filet doesn't have enough fat on it or in it to really give a tenderloin that yummy char-broiled taste, and with the pan preparation you can also do a nice reduction wine sauce for it such as a Cabernet sauce.  This adds a lot of flavor to the dish and enhances rather than covering up the flavor of the meat itself.

On the Steak Thivkness issue, here I was REALLY surprised.  Most of the respondents liked their steaks cut to a 3/4" to 1" thickness.  This is way too thin for me, although it is probably the most common thickness steaks are cut to in the Food Superstores.  However, whether on the grill, in the pan or in the oven, a steak has to have some thickness to have a rare center.  I like my steaks quite thick, between 1 1/2" – 2".  >2" is a bit of overkill. 1" – 1 1/2" is OK, but I still prefer a little thicker than that.

Image result for sauteed mushrooms For Steak Additions to spruce up your steak with an accompaniment, Sauteed Mushrooms edged out Caramelized Onions and the various Sauces you might use on a Steak, which was by no means a complete list, sauces are pretty endless actually.   One sauce I did not drop in which I should have but just forgot was A-1 Steak Sauce.  I used this one quite a bit back when I was a kid, although I no longer have a taste for that one.  Many people do though.  Overall these rankings came in pretty close with the exception of peppers which trailed badly, and I agree with them.  I do like Mushrooms the best with steak, but the onions and the sauces are also good.  Depends on your mood mainly and the quality of the meat and how it is served.  On a Steak Sandwich, I like to have the additional accompaniments.  If it's a relatively low quality Sirloin, I also like to have some additions.  I was a little surprised pappers fell so far back as they are popular with steak both in Mexican cooking in Fajitas and in Chinese cooking, especially Szechuan dishes.

For Salt, most Meatosauruses are in the Medium Range, but with a few No Salt and Heavy Salt aficionados on either end of this spectrum.  I go for Light Salt generally speaking, I feel too much salt buries the flavor of the meat too much.  I am OK with Medium Salt though also.. I have sent restaurant steaks back to the kitchen for ones that were just too salty, as I will also do if they are too overcooked.  You're paying through the nose for these meals, it should be prepared the way you asked for it!

Image result for gourmet bacon cheeseburger Moving on to Ground Beef, unsurprisingly Hamburgers were the favored method of preparation, Grilled over an Open Flame on top, Skillet braised in 2nd.  Given Amerikans eat a steady diet of Hamburgers basically from birth at Fast Food Joints and at Family Barbecues, the prefernce here is totally understandable. The middle choices of stuff like Meatballs, Meatloaf, Bolgnese Sauce etc kept changing spots throughout the polling, with Meatballs finishing finally in 3rd in the money.  Given that a larger protion of the population than I thought eats Raw Meat, I was a little surprised to see this choice come in trailing the pack in Last Place.  Raw is my favorite way to eat ground beef, but it has to be real fresh straight out of the grinder.  I actually like Ground Chuck better than Ground Sirloin or Ground Round because it is fattier.  I like an 80/20 lean meat to fat content rather than the 90% Lean stuff.  Otherwise, I would put Meatballs ahead of the hamburgers in my choices as they are more flavorful if done right and an exellent complement to your pasta.  Also great with marinara sauce on a Hoagie.  If I do have a Hamburger though, it's always open fire grilled.  I never eat a Fast Food burger anymore, not even the White Castle slider style mini burgers I loved as a kid.

Finally, in the Sauces category, Au Jus took the Win,  Worcestershire to Place and Barbecue Sauce to Show.  If you bet the trifecta, it paid 100:1.  As I mentioned, I forgot A-1 Steak Sauce in this list, a major oversight.  I wasn't surprised by this finish, although it's not my choices at all.  I'd put a Cabernet reduction sauce in 1st, Peppercorn Sauce in 2nd and Bernaise in 3rd, with Au Jus finishing 4th for me.  Again I think the sauces which won did so because most people don't usually have them with their steak and are more familiar with the bottled sauces like Worcestershire and BBQ Sauce.  Generally you have to eat at an expensive steakhouse to get a more refined sauce, and few people will make them at home.

To close, I want to reinforce that this is meant as no disrespect to Vegan Kollapsniks as one of their choices to try and be kinder to the environment, and kinder to animals too.  The issue there is that your stopping eating meat won't make any difference, if you don't eat it someone else on the planet will.  People won't stop eating meat until it's just not available to buy, or becomes too expensive to afford as it was for most of its history prior to large scale industrial agriculture farming and ranching.  As far as cruelty to animals goes, you have to remember that the animals raised for food by Homo Saps wouldn't even be alive if it wasn't for their care and feeding of those animals by Homo Saps they wouldn't be alive at all.  Life out in the wild is pretty cruel also, if you have ever watched a video of a predator taking down its prey it's not a pretty sight and the Lion or pack of Wolves doesn't worry about being humane or eating the prey while it is still alive either.

Humans evolved as Omnivores, and animal protein of one sort or another has been part of our diet since we dropped down out of the trees to conquer the Earth.  So, while it lasts, the Meatosauruses on the Diner will keep eating the flesh of other animals, and at some point in the timeline perhaps the flesh of other Homo Saps as well.  Time will tell on that one.

Below, you can scroll through the full results of the Survey.

 

 

Survey: Psychological Profiles of Collapse – Results: Future of Energy

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 20, 2015

Discuss the results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

TAKE THE COLLAPSE PERSONALITY PROFILE SURVEY HERE

Internet-JunkieRecently inside the Diner we had a long and involved discussion about Psychological Profiling, centering mostly on Enneagrams, which attempt to categorize the psychological profile of people through 9 different categories. This is not the only such type of profiling out there, the Briggs-Myers system which uses 4 main categories is also commonly referenced for this type of stuff.

Several of the Diners took the Enneagram test, and we have a fairly wide distribution of types recorded from this type of test and the results also seem to be repeatable through different tests for a given indvidual, but I am curious (yellow) as to what personality types defined by these tests and structures are prevalent in the Collapse Community?

To try to get some handle on this, I have created a Survey which you can fill out once you take the Enneagram Test and the Briggs-Myers test.  You don't necessarily have to take the same ones I am linking to here, but the data is going to be more consistent if you use these tests.

I also am including a Link to an IQ Test, which is optional to take, it's not necessary for the Personality Profiling.  However, again I am curious as to what kind of IQ the typical Kollapsnik TM has, so I added this to the Survey.

This is a "fun" survey, not meant to be too serious, the whole psychological  profiling thing is rather nebulous to begin with and the sample size we are likely to get is not going to be that statistically significant.  Nevertheless, I am interested to see how the distribution of personality types is spread out.

The two main personality tests and IQ Test links are:

If you are going to fill out the survey, you will need to take at least the Personality Tests.  The IQ Test is Optional.  Each of the tests takes about 15 minutes to do, and the survey itself also another 10-15 minutes, so if you want to participate this will cost you an hour of your valuable time.  lol.

survey-saysOK, now on to the results from the Future of Energy Survey, which brought in a good sample size and very interesting results overall. 🙂

The big question always posed on all collapse websites it the TIMELINE QUESTION? As in "When will *I* be unable to afford the gas or the pumps will be dry in *MY* neighborhood?  When will *MY* Lights go out?"  If this shit is happening to Greeks or Venezuelans, WTF CARES, right?  LOL.  As long as *I* am still doing OK, everything is PEACHY!  This is a particular problem here in the FSoA with the 20%  or so of still well-to-do Amurkans, who simply cannot fathom why the poor people can't get along, and why they feel the necessity to RIOT all the time?  What's with that #Ferguson shit, why don't these folks just do what the cops tell them to do?  LOL.

Anyhow, at least amongst Kollapsniks TM, we have a very solid consensus opinion on when the pumps will go dry and the lights will brown out regularly.  Very nice Bell Curve distribution on these questions, and if you believe Kollapsniks, then things will be going seriously SOUTH around 2025 or so.  Zager & Evans only got ONE digit wrong! 🙂

Which is the closest year to which Gas/Petrol will either be unavailable or too expensive for most people to buy in your neighborhood?

  Now 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Available for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 4
(2.72%)
25
(17.01%)
44
(29.93%)
28
(19.05%)
14
(9.52%)
8
(5.44%)
24
(16.33%)
12.59 147

Which is the closest year to which on demand Grid Electricity will either suffer regular Brownout or Blackouts in your neighborhood 50% or more of the time?

  Now 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Available for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 5
(3.4%)
18
(12.24%)
38
(25.85%)
24
(16.33%)
16
(10.88%)
6
(4.08%)
40
(27.21%)
12.95 147

2025 looks like the CRITICAL year to most Kollapsniks as far as availability of gas to do Happy Motoring and keeping the Lights On all the time in your digs.  I tend to agree with this assessment and 2025 was my vote on both of these questions.  What these questions also reveal is an approximation of how many Cornucopians haunt the Collapse Blogs, it appears to be between 15-30% of the readership.  These folks believe that the gas and electricity will continue to be available into the indefinite future.

Can Renewable Energy sources pick up the slack to maintain a technological society once Fossil Fuels cannot be accessed or afforded?

  Yes No Maybe, I'll explain it below Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 24
(16.33%)
92
(62.59%)
31
(21.09%)
30.54 147

Overwhelmingly, most Kollapsniks do not think Renewables can pick up the slack here once we drop off the Fossil Fuel based economy.  I tend to agree with this assesment as well.  Quite a few text responses came in for the "Maybe" choice, here they are:

What are your rationales for answering "maybe" to Renewables in Q3?

Text Responses

With farming and return to farm lifestyle. after tribal war and die off.
Low EROI Intermittent
It depends on what you mean by "technological society". I envision one that has – some – technology but only about 10% of our current energy usage.
if we can get around political obsticals and build more nuclear
production continues to ramp up immensely – the only thing preventing american access to cheap imported solar is bad tax policy
We need to drastically reduce consumption and inequality, go vegan, reduce human population voluntarily to about 10% of current levels (a stretch, I know), and put entire society on a "war footing." We probably need nuclear as well. We could maintain technological society but not today's consumption levels.
"Pick up the slack." What do you mean. Solar energy is to some extent suffering from a resource shortage: some rare earth metals. In PVs progress is being made, but then the inter-seasonal, daily and/or spatial production consumption imbalance will have to be overcome by large storage and /or transfer energy systems. In wind energy obviously similar issues play. These require huge amounts of resources (power storage reservoirs, compressed air batteries, huge power transport lines. Energy will never be cheap again, at some prices will reflect production cost (bye bye capitalism.). Our per capita energy consumption will (have to) go down. Living standards may follow. We may have to shrink as a species.
"Pick up the slack." What do you mean. Solar energy is to some extent suffering from a resource shortage: some rare earth metals. In PVs progress is being made, but then the inter-seasonal, daily and/or spatial production consumption imbalance will have to be overcome by large storage and /or transfer energy systems. In wind energy obviously similar issues play. These require huge amounts of resources (power storage reservoirs, compressed air batteries, huge power transport lines. Energy will never be cheap again, at some prices will reflect production cost (bye bye capitalism.). Our per capita energy consumption will (have to) go down. Living standards may follow. We may have to shrink as a species.
Not a technological society as we know it, but a society with some technlogy available to a few wealthy owners.
Not a technological society as we know it, but a society with some technlogy available to a few wealthy owners.
depends on priorities
The BIG game changer is whether or not storage can drop in price. It is disruptive technology. If storage drops to the 100/kwhr range or lower, it can change the whole energy distribution system. Not because of solar or wind, which it will obviously help. But because you no longer need to load follow, and have extra capacity online to meet -potential- load increases. It is a tremendous increase in efficiency. It is more danger initially to the FF industry then wind or solar. 100/kwh batteries also make electric cars the same price as their FF cousins. It allows for off-grid. The question is whether or not we can hit that goal or not, and the timeframe for achieving that goal. GM has announced it by 2022 which is 7 years. The potential is there.
BAU can not be supported by RE but a highly modified technological society can be. We will not have 24/7/365 electric. I expect we will have long distance communication via fiberoptic but maybe not video definitely not cell towers. I expect much lower population 90% less. On #6 below I mean simple tech no 20 billion dollar chip fabs. few or zero airplanes.
I should explain that there are no utilities in my neighborhood now. There are some real problems running industrial equipment on renewable energy sources, air travel will cost too much, and we should produce far less grain-fed meat, so there will be some major changes.
depends on economic and political conditions
All depends on the Hot Rocks – Nuke Puke situation. A different lower energy localized society might be possible. High rise towers could be used for local food production in lower density cities. Good design could minimize heating needs. A local large office building here in Vancouver is heated from the electrical lighting load, solar and occupant's body heat. Designed and built 50+ years ago.
Solar will become the dominant low cost energy as storage technologies (batteries and hydrogen predominantly) evolve.
Answer for #5. Manhattan Project style effort on LFTR research would be good to see. Probably too late, though. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor.
Only if expectations and levels of consumption are radically reduced – basically status quo lifestyle is a non-starter but a reduced expectation reality is.
We can replace 80% of electricity-generation fossil fuels with current technology; transport is probably doable but it requires significant breakthroughs.
Yes… esp if advanced biofuel, biooil, and other biological based fuel sources are utilized (algae, switchgrass, miscanthus, etc)
Fossil fuels won't become unaccessible or unaffordable in my lifetime.
Techincally, it could. The political and cultural changes also required are VERY unlikely to happen before it is too late to build the right technical infrastructure.
Energy from renewables will need to be directed to a smaller selected group of technologies, i.e. infotech, telecoms to continue the availability of knowledge and communication for people. Also continued production of high-tech for renewables themselves. Not on the receiving end. Long distance transportation of food/people/cheap-labour-produced dross, or tech for extracting/refining fossil fuels.
Transition time 30 years without causing problems, less than that and it will stress the system/public.
Sources that are neither fossils nor renewable such as nuclear energy will provide great amounts of energy. Renewable energy sources, solar in particular, will be more developed and produce greater amounts of energy than those sources do today. Also, if there would be a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology, energy problems would no longer be a problem.
a society capable of limmited electrically powered processes at a ~1920s level, with all else being at an early 19th century level. yes. modern modern. no.
With combined energy efficiency and lower population levels the remaining population may be able to maintain a technological society with renewable energy sources only.
It requires that collapse not happen for any other reason; and while I expect that renewable energy will be able to be produced using just renewable energy, there will be degradation in quality and capacity with every generation, like a xerox of a xerox.
Well, we have to actually start the infrastructure in a big way, then techology has to continue in a non petroleum based power future.
Maybe at some point in the distant future, but why would we want them to, and fossil fuels will always have some advantages.
At what cost. Renewables have displayed the ability to fill the void left by declining fossil fuels. Renewables are expensive and rely on heavy tax incentives.
Technically they could make a HUGE difference but it is culturally and politically UNLIKELY to happen before it is too late.
renewables' foundation rests on fossil fuels.
RE is constantly changing. Innovation is possible. You cannot foresee the future.
technology for the rich, back to 19th century for everyone else
To a certain extent since we have plenty of hydro, nuclear and wind. The problem is, of course, transportation. We have lots of public transportation and plenty of biofuels generated from waste so pehaps it is possible. We cannot overconsume, drive cars or grow the economy but perhaps we could have some form of sophisticated communication (internet)

Should more Nuclear Power Plants be built to pick up shortfall in electrical power as fossil fuels dwindle?

  Yes No Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 63
(43.45%)
82
(56.55%)
9.5 145

Nuke Puke was a pretty close vote for quite a while, running close to 50-50 in the early polling.  However, in the end the Anti-Nuke Greenies beat the Nuke Pukers, and more Nuke Plants were defeated in this vote.  It's highly unlikely many new ones will be built in any event, snce the end consumer can't afford to buy the electricity regardless of how it is produced.

In the event that we cannot find energy sources to replace fossil fuels in running our industrial economy, which outcome do you think is most likely?

  We will return to 18th century farming techniques at a lower population level We will shrink down to very small numbers and return to Hunter-Gatherer living We will maintain a technological society utilizing just renewable energy sources We will go Extinct Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 68
(46.9%)
21
(14.48%)
41
(28.28%)
15
(10.34%)
20.7 145

The overwhelming plurality of Doomers think we are destined to all become Amish people (47%).  A relatively small percentage think we are destined for Near Term Human Extinction (10% of the sample).  A very significant number (28%) of people fit in that Cornucopian slot, believing we will be able to continue onward with a Technological Civilization utilizing Renewable Energy sources.  I fit in the 14% or so who believe we are destined to vastly shrink in numbers and return to a Hunter-Gatherer lifestyle, although I think this will take quite some time to take place and we probably will do the Amish thing for a while.

All in all, this was one of the more enlightening surveys so far, in terms of getting a feel for what the attitudes and beliefs are of people who haunt the Collapse Blog-o-sphere.  Next up, we need to determine the Psychological Profiles of these Doomers.

TAKE THE COLLAPSE PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE SURVEY HERE

Survey: Future of Energy – Results: Ordering Preps for Collapse

survey-says-2gc2Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 6, 2015

oilwell

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

TAKE THE FUTURE OF ENERGY SURVEY HERE

For this Week's Collapse Survey TM, we are looking at the Energy question, with respect to Fossil Fuels, Nuclear Energy and Renewables, and what their future looks like over the next few years.  Results for last week's survey follow BELOW.

What is the future for these forms of energy production?  How long will they last?  How will Homo Sap adapt to a lower per capita energy future if we don't get some Magic Bullet like Cold Fusion from an Italian Inventor working in his garage or from the Ferengi arriving on Starship Freighters loaded with Dilithium Crystals and Gold Pressed Latinum, which they will trade just for a date with Kim Kardashian?

Copius amounts of energy are of course required to live the Technological lifestyle, from the energy required to move tons of metal around on the highways and byways; to the energy required to lift an Airbus off the ground full of Hawaii Vacationers; to the energy required to create your laptop and then to send information packets all over the globe on the World Wide Web.  This is a SHIT LOAD of energy!  So how much of this lifestyle will we retain, and if it is going to disappear, how fast will that happen?

Those are the questions for this week's Survey.

TAKE THE FUTURE OF ENERGY SURVEY HERE

Now, onto the RESULTS from last week's survey! 🙂

survey-saysAll Kollapsniks TM think about Prepping Up for collapse in some way, but it is very Money Dependent for the most part.  How much Spare Change you have at the moment limits just how far along you personally can go into the world of Prepping.  If you're Steve Wozniak you can buy Doomstead property in New Zealand and probably afford to buy your own Micro-Nuclear Reactor from Hitachi too!  If you are a well to do former Stand Up Comedian like Hardscrabble Farmer, you can by a nice little Farm in Vermont and live the Gentleman Farmer life, at least for now before the Zombie Hordes start bicycling out of Beantown anyhow.

For most folks though, this kind of Prepping is just out of financial range.  At least 50% of the current population of the FSoA has no more than a month or two worth of savings to cover their regular bills, much less go spending it on a bunch of Collapse Preps!  So I decided to LIMIT the amount of money to something reasonable for an Amerikan still employed who has a little Stash of Cash that might be used for Prepping Up.

$10,000 seemed about right, you can buy a decent amount of food with this, you can buy a gun and some ammo, you can even afford a small plot of raw land out in the boonies for around $2000/acre.  This is still more cash than the average J6P has, but it's within reason.

How to allocate this money though?  What items are most important, which least important?

First question up, Order the Priorities!

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
Long Lasting Foods (dried, canned, freeze dried etc) 17
(51.52%)
3
(9.09%)
6
(18.18%)
3
(9.09%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
4.77 33 2.33 / 11
Food Production (Hydroponics, Aquaculutre, Garden etc) 1
(3.03%)
8
(24.24%)
7
(21.21%)
5
(15.15%)
3
(9.09%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
3
(9.09%)
2.49 33 4.61 / 11
Land 9
(27.27%)
4
(12.12%)
1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
6
(18.18%)
2
(6.06%)
2.59 33 4.79 / 11
Guns & Ammo 0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
5
(15.15%)
7
(21.21%)
2
(6.06%)
7
(21.21%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
2.26 33 5.85 / 11
Barter Items (Booze, Cigarettes, Diapers, Tampons, Tools etc) 0
(0%)
3
(9.09%)
4
(12.12%)
2
(6.06%)
4
(12.12%)
5
(15.15%)
6
(18.18%)
5
(15.15%)
1.86 33 5.97 / 11
Cash (FRNs. Euros etc) 3
(9.09%)
4
(12.12%)
3
(9.09%)
2
(6.06%)
2
(6.06%)
4
(12.12%)
2
(6.06%)
2
(6.06%)
1.28 33 6.12 / 11
Alternative Shelter (tents, sleeping bags etc) 2
(6.06%)
5
(15.15%)
1
(3.03%)
2
(6.06%)
6
(18.18%)
3
(9.09%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
2.22 33 6.42 / 11
Alternative Transportation (bicycles, electric vehicles etc) 0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
4
(12.12%)
3
(9.09%)
2
(6.06%)
5
(15.15%)
4
(12.12%)
4
(12.12%)
1.35 33 6.55 / 11
Energy Production (Solar PV, Wind Turbine etc) 0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
1
(3.03%)
3
(9.09%)
6
(18.18%)
3
(9.09%)
6
(18.18%)
4
(12.12%)
1.76 33 6.73 / 11
Gold 1
(3.03%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.09%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.09%)
3
(9.09%)
8
(24.24%)
2.52 33 8.03 / 11
Silver 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
4
(12.12%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.06%)
2
(6.06%)
3.52 33 8.61 / 11

The Gold Bugs will not be happy!  Gold & Silver rank the lowest on the list of priorities for Preps!  Cash in the form of paper notes got a much higher ranking, and Barter items higher than that.

Food unsurprisingly tops the list here, then after the food a way to Protect & Defend it, aka Guns & Ammo.  For the most part I agree with this ordering, although I think alternate energy production should be a little higher in prioritization.

Next up, how much of your small pile of FRNs do you allocate to long lasting foods?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 0
(0%)
8
(24.24%)
11
(33.33%)
9
(27.27%)
3
(9.09%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
4.16 33

Once again a nice Bell curve, with most people coming in from $500 to $2000.  I'd go in on the high side with the $2000.  At about $3/day, this is about 2 years if you buy bulk and buy cheap.  A 50 lb bag of rice will last a long time, especially if you Vacuum Seal it into smaller bags.

How about buying a patch of land?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 17
(50%)
2
(5.88%)
1
(2.94%)
4
(11.76%)
2
(5.88%)
0
(0%)
8
(23.53%)
5.51 34

The largest number of Preppers came in with the max amount of $5000, which could get you 2 acres of raw land out in the Boonies.  I personally would not spend my money that way though, unless you have several people involved who could each contribute.  Protecting & Defending the land would be difficult,

How much to CASH?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 7
(20.59%)
6
(17.65%)
9
(26.47%)
7
(20.59%)
3
(8.82%)
0
(0%)
2
(5.88%)
3 34

20% of Preppers allocated ZERO to cash.  That is nuts to me.  Even in the worst case scenario of rapid hyperinflation, you can get rid of it for more barterable items in the last few days before the shelves go empty.  Put me in for $1000 in cash in the preps.

How much to Gold & Silver?

Gold Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 15
(44.12%)
7
(20.59%)
8
(23.53%)
1
(2.94%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
3
(8.82%)
5.11 34
Silver Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 17
(51.52%)
8
(24.24%)
4
(12.12%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
1
(3.03%)
5.57 33

With such a small amount of available funds for prepping, most preppers allocate Zero to Gold & Silver, and I tend to agree with that.  Your money is better spent on some of the other items on the list.  If you have a lot more money to work with and have all your other bases well covered, then the PMs can be inserted into the prep supplies.

What about Guns & Ammo?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 6
(17.65%)
10
(29.41%)
9
(26.47%)
7
(20.59%)
1
(2.94%)
0
(0%)
1
(2.94%)
3.83 34

Once again, you're working with a small chunk of change, so you can't spend too much money this way, but at least having your own handgun for self-protection is proabably a good idea.  If you are in an area where there is good hunting, a rifle as well would be good.  At gun shows and in pawn shops you can probably do both for $1000-2000.  Ammo is pretty expensive these days though, so if you are working with more than one caliber, this can drive your costs up rapidly.   After TSHTF, the ammo probably will become unavailable, so this prep has a limited lifespan.  For hunting purposes, you're probably better off with compound bow & arrow and/or crossbow, slingshot for small game like squirrels and traps.  Also Fishing gear as well of course.

How much for Energy production?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 9
(28.13%)
5
(15.63%)
12
(37.5%)
4
(12.5%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.25%)
4.2 32

Once again, you're working with limited funds, and unless you have your own property on which to install a large PV array or a big Wind Turbine, it's pointless to spend a lot of money this way.  However, it is good if you at least have enough to keep your small electronic devices such as laptop, flashlights, FRS radios and so forth charged up. $500-1000 seems about right for this.  Small Wind turbines for RVs and Sailboats are available, and 1 250W Solar panel probably is what you go with on this one.

In the short term for short disruptions of electric power, you are simply out to lunch if you don't have a gas or propane powered Generator that can keep your electrics going for a week or two.  these things are NOT that expensive!  $300 will buy a decent one that will keep the fridge going, the lights on and your laptop up and running too!  20 Gallons of Gas or a 100lb Propane tank keeps you up and running for a week at least.

What about Food production?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 7
(20.59%)
4
(11.76%)
11
(32.35%)
5
(14.71%)
2
(5.88%)
2
(5.88%)
3
(8.82%)
3 34

This also brings you back to having your own property, it's hard to be a food producer if you don't at least have your own property on which to do it!  However, even if you currently are living in a small apartment in NY Shity, you can experiment with Hydroponics and growing veggies in window boxes and so forth.  Learn how to save seeds, and use Heirloom seeds that will breed true.  At least you will learn the techniques.  So $500 spent this way seems OK to me.  This is a post TSHTF educational investment.  You're most likely NOT going to be able to raise enough food without a decent amount of space to feed yourself, but learning how to do it is worthwhile.  We do have one Diner though who manages to raise about 80% of his nutritional needs inside his McHovel utilizing Hydroponics, so you can make a real good dent here even in a small space.

How much goes to Barter Items?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 5
(14.71%)
9
(26.47%)
15
(44.12%)
4
(11.76%)
0
(0%)
1
(2.94%)
0
(0%)
5.11 34

If you don't have your own means for producing Food, Barter items can be of great value in helping you last a while longer before you Buy Your Ticket to the Great Beyond TM!  I'll go with the majority opinion here of $1000 for barter items.  If you have your own distillation apparatus and can distill alcohol, this could help you last long term as well. 🙂

What about Alternative Transportation?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 9
(28.13%)
15
(46.88%)
5
(15.63%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
5.21 32

RE-EwzYou definitely want SOME form of alternative Transportation for TSHTF scenario, a good Bicycle with a Bike Trailer is MINIMUM here.  This you can do for the $500 that most Preppers suggest.  In my case, I have an Electric Scooter, the famed Ewz,  which I picked up for $550, plus an extra BattSet for another $150.  This can get me around a range of 20 miles or so, which is plenty in most circumstances.  So, $500-1000 seems about right for alternative transportation.  On the slim budget of $10K you are NOT going to be able to afford one of Elon Musk's latest EVs!

http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/530610acecad049d0316d24c/elon-musk-teslas-suv-will-be-more-popular-than-the-model-s-sedan.jpg

Do I need Alternative Shelter?

  Zero $500 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 8
(24.24%)
17
(51.52%)
5
(15.15%)
2
(6.06%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.03%)
5.7 33

The majority of Preppers do favor spending some of your precious FRNs on Alternative Shelter, but not a lot. Basically this amounts to having a good Tent or Tents to use in Emergency Circumstances, like say Wildfires were threatening your McHovel and you had to make a run for your life.  You can do the Tents for well under the $500 mark.

However, you can do better than this depending how you allocate your $10K.  For instance, I picked up my ancient but well preserved Bugout Machine on the used market for $5000.  A very comfortable and well appointed Emergency Shelter, and mobile too as long as the tank is filled with gas!  Add in an acre of property to park it on, you might be able to make it for a year with enough food preps!

RE-BM-Camp3

You can do an even cheaper but better-than-tent shelter with a Used Van, which you can pick up on the used market for under $1000.  Roamer & me call this "Stealth Living", because it is possible to do even in an Urban environment.

For myself, obviously I did spend the $5K for the Bugout Machine, and it drove up my Prep costs to over the $10K we have to work with here in total.  However, the rest of my preps at the moment come in somewhat less than $10K, so I am not too much over the limit.

Now, if you are allocating some of your Cash Stash to Barter Items, which ones are best?

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
Antibiotics 12
(37.5%)
3
(9.38%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.25%)
8
(25%)
1
(3.13%)
2
(6.25%)
0
(0%)
3.43 32 4.06 / 13
Toilet Paper 8
(25%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
5
(15.63%)
2
(6.25%)
4
(12.5%)
2
(6.25%)
2.17 32 4.75 / 13
Cheap Booze (Generic Vodka etc) 4
(12.5%)
4
(12.5%)
6
(18.75%)
5
(15.63%)
3
(9.38%)
1
(3.13%)
2
(6.25%)
2
(6.25%)
1.74 32 4.78 / 13
Soap 1
(3.13%)
4
(12.5%)
6
(18.75%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
5
(15.63%)
5
(15.63%)
2
(6.25%)
1.91 32 5.31 / 13
Cigarettes 2
(6.25%)
4
(12.5%)
4
(12.5%)
7
(21.88%)
4
(12.5%)
3
(9.38%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
1.82 32 5.5 / 13
Bullets 4
(12.5%)
6
(18.75%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
2
(6.25%)
1.55 32 6.00/ 13
Shoes 0
(0%)
4
(12.5%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
7
(21.88%)
1.99 32 6.97 / 13
Laundry Detergent 0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
3
(9.38%)
3
(9.38%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.25%)
3
(9.38%)
3
(9.38%)
1.78 32 8.03 / 13
Tampons 0
(0%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
4
(12.5%)
2
(6.25%)
6
(18.75%)
1.87 32 8.69 / 13
Expensive Booze (Single Malt Scotch, etc) 1
(3.13%)
0
(0%)
2
(6.25%)
3
(9.38%)
1
(3.13%)
2
(6.25%)
2
(6.25%)
2
(6.25%)
1.5 32 8.81 / 13
Pampers 0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
1
(3.13%)
2
(6.25%)
5
(15.63%)
3
(9.38%)
1.95 32 9.06 / 13
Condoms 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
0
(0%)
4
(12.5%)
2
(6.25%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
2.06 32 9.25 / 13
Marijuana 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
1
(3.13%)
3
(9.38%)
0
(0%)
3
(9.38%)
2
(6.25%)
1
(3.13%)
2.53 32 9.78 / 13

This was the most surprising result of this survey to me.  Although antibiotics do have great value when somebody gets sick, they're not too commonly needed and for the most part you can do without them and let your immune system take care of most infections if you wait it out, keep the wound clean and so forth.  Chicken Soup also works well. Jewish Penicillin. 🙂 lol.

Matzoh_Ball_Soup

I would go with stuff more commonly necessary, like the Pampers, Tampons, Shoes etc.  Booze also since in a SHTF scenario many people will want to stay drunk as much as they can.  LOL.

Whatever your barter item choices are though, I would go with about $1000 spent total this way, and distribute it out amongst the choices.

Now, onto the ENERGY QUESTIONS!

Survey: Ordering Preps for Collapse – Results: Fate of Countries in Collapse

survey-says-2gc2Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on Septemeber 30, 2015

http://momswhoprep.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/4_person_premium_home_survival_kit.jpg

Discuss this article at the Survey Table inside the Diner

TAKE THE ORDERING PREPS FOR COLLAPSE SURVEY HERE

Our new Collapse Survey TM for this week is on how you should order up your preps for Collapse.

There is a lot of dispute on this topic, particularly with folks who think Gold & Silver are important Collapse Preps to have.  Theory there is that the PMs will hold their value when the fiat money collapses. So do you want to convert your current paper or digibit money into Gold if you have some savings?  How much of your pile should be held in Gold? 

Alternatively, you have many folks looking at a Mad Max scenario unfolding, so they are more partial to Steel & Lead as an investment.  AKA, Guns and Ammo.

Then you have the Back to the Land folks who feel the best investment is to buy your own piece of property and start growing your own veggies.  Except, once your Goobermint is outta biz, who exactly enforces you Property Rights to that patch of land?  If you are a Libertarian or Anarchist who wants to see Goobermint disappear, than what gives you the right to own a piece of property?

In the survey, you get $10,000 to spend on whatever preps you like, distributed out however you like.  If you're going to buy land with that, it's probably going to take at least half of it right there.

Anyhow, you can express some of your opinions on these topics in this Survey.

survey-saysNow. on to the results from last week's survey, the Fate of Countries in Collapse! 🙂

Although I did include questions to rank many countries and/or regions as to their fate in collapse, mainly the survey was focused on the "Big 3", the FSoA, Russia and China.

There s a constant debate ongoing in the Collapse Blogosphere as to which of these countries will fare the best as collapse marches onward, and there is a lot of ideological spin that goes along with that analysis also.

So, here I tried to strip some of that out and just get a hard and fast global viewpoint on which will be best and worst as time goes by.

Below here are the results from this survey.

For most dead people in gross numbers, the Winner is

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
China 19
(31.15%)
15
(24.59%)
7
(11.48%)
5
(8.2%)
2
(3.28%)
7
(11.48%)
2
(3.28%)
1
(1.64%)
5.9 61 3.18 / 11
India 12
(19.67%)
11
(18.03%)
10
(16.39%)
6
(9.84%)
7
(11.48%)
5
(8.2%)
2
(3.28%)
2
(3.28%)
3.8 61 3.97 / 11
Middle East-North Africa 3
(4.92%)
7
(11.48%)
13
(21.31%)
10
(16.39%)
5
(8.2%)
7
(11.48%)
10
(16.39%)
2
(3.28%)
3.96 61 4.74 / 11
Japan 4
(6.56%)
10
(16.39%)
2
(3.28%)
8
(13.11%)
8
(13.11%)
8
(13.11%)
6
(9.84%)
5
(8.2%)
2.81 61 5.38 / 11
USA-Canada 10
(16.39%)
3
(4.92%)
4
(6.56%)
8
(13.11%)
5
(8.2%)
3
(4.92%)
4
(6.56%)
6
(9.84%)
2.31 61 5.8 / 11
Sub-Saharan Africa 4
(6.56%)
8
(13.11%)
7
(11.48%)
4
(6.56%)
9
(14.75%)
0
(0%)
4
(6.56%)
9
(14.75%)
2.54 61 5.95 / 11
Europe 2
(3.28%)
3
(4.92%)
4
(6.56%)
6
(9.84%)
8
(13.11%)
11
(18.03%)
8
(13.11%)
8
(13.11%)
3.37 61 6.08 / 11
Southeast Asia 3
(4.92%)
3
(4.92%)
5
(8.2%)
5
(8.2%)
7
(11.48%)
7
(11.48%)
7
(11.48%)
3
(4.92%)
2.84 61 6.49 / 11
Russia 3
(4.92%)
1
(1.64%)
7
(11.48%)
4
(6.56%)
4
(6.56%)
3
(4.92%)
9
(14.75%)
11
(18.03%)
2.78 61 6.89 / 11
Central-South America 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
2
(3.28%)
2
(3.28%)
4
(6.56%)
8
(13.11%)
8
(13.11%)
9
(14.75%)
4.48 61 7.9 / 11
Australia-New Zealand 1
(1.64%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
3
(4.92%)
2
(3.28%)
2
(3.28%)
1
(1.64%)
5
(8.2%)
10.7 61 9.62 / 11

China!

India #2.

Since these are the two most populous countries on the planet currently, this makes perfect sense.  The Kollapsniks TM got this one right! 🙂

Now going by percentage of the current population:

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
Middle East-North Africa 14
(22.95%)
9
(14.75%)
4
(6.56%)
6
(9.84%)
3
(4.92%)
6
(9.84%)
15
(24.59%)
1
(1.64%)
4.92 61 4.28 / 11
China 7
(11.48%)
16
(26.23%)
7
(11.48%)
3
(4.92%)
10
(16.39%)
7
(11.48%)
0
(0%)
3
(4.92%)
4.31 61 4.41 / 11
India 3
(4.92%)
13
(21.31%)
6
(9.84%)
5
(8.2%)
13
(21.31%)
5
(8.2%)
5
(8.2%)
5
(8.2%)
3.85 61 4.87 / 11
Japan 6
(9.84%)
7
(11.48%)
6
(9.84%)
16
(26.23%)
5
(8.2%)
4
(6.56%)
4
(6.56%)
4
(6.56%)
3.65 61 4.9 / 11
USA-Canada 16
(26.23%)
3
(4.92%)
5
(8.2%)
3
(4.92%)
4
(6.56%)
6
(9.84%)
6
(9.84%)
5
(8.2%)
3.87 61 5.07 / 11
Europe 6
(9.84%)
2
(3.28%)
6
(9.84%)
6
(9.84%)
5
(8.2%)
14
(22.95%)
3
(4.92%)
8
(13.11%)
3.29 61 5.77 / 11
Sub-Saharan Africa 4
(6.56%)
7
(11.48%)
6
(9.84%)
6
(9.84%)
5
(8.2%)
1
(1.64%)
5
(8.2%)
20
(32.79%)
4.96 61 5.87 / 11
Russia 2
(3.28%)
3
(4.92%)
14
(22.95%)
2
(3.28%)
3
(4.92%)
4
(6.56%)
10
(16.39%)
6
(9.84%)
3.53 61 6.3 / 11
Southeast Asia 1
(1.64%)
0
(0%)
2
(3.28%)
11
(18.03%)
7
(11.48%)
3
(4.92%)
8
(13.11%)
5
(8.2%)
5.09 61 7.15 / 11
Central-South America 0
(0%)
1
(1.64%)
2
(3.28%)
1
(1.64%)
4
(6.56%)
9
(14.75%)
5
(8.2%)
4
(6.56%)
6.16 61 7.92 / 11
Australia-New Zealand 2
(3.28%)
0
(0%)
3
(4.92%)
2
(3.28%)
2
(3.28%)
2
(3.28%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
11.62 61 9.48 / 11

In this case, MENA got the nod for most dead people by percentage of population, which I also would generally agree with considering so much of it is already DESERT.  However, I would have ranked both Japan and sub-Saharan Africa higher.

Now the "Big 3" questions, comparing the fate of the FSoA, China & Russia in the post-collapse world:

Which one does best?

  USA China Russia Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 19
(31.15%)
11
(18.03%)
31
(50.82%)
8.22 61

The Ruskies win this one hands down.  Most Kollapsniks believe that since Mother Russia has already experienced collapse, they're more resilient.  Also, they like the people/land ration and the resources.

Here's Text Responses:

Strict. Authoritarian. Tight control. Strong military. Organizational capability and enforcement.
Our words are backed by working nuclear weapons.
Technology, temperate lands with a relatively large amount of resources, mid-large population, science.
abundance of natural resouces, people/land ratio
 

Where would most Kollapsniks prefer to be living post-collapse?

  USA China Russia Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 47
(77.05%)
2
(3.28%)
12
(19.67%)
19.29 61

Despite most Kollapsniks believing Mother Russia will do better, they still would rather be here in the good old FSoA.  This also is not surprising given the demographic of Kollapsniks is about 50% Amerikan and most folks want to stay where they are comfortable, know the language and fit in culturally.

Here's text responses on this one:

As a country, the United States may still be able to hold things together. Even if not, the social and cultural landscape is most familiar.
I speak English
The other two have a funny history when it comes to instability and killing people.

Finally, which country is likely to experience Political Upheaval and Revolution first?

  USA China Russia Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 26
(42.62%)
27
(44.26%)
8
(13.11%)
8.73 61

This is almost a dead even race between China and the FSoA, with Mother Russia coming in a distant 3rd.  Not sure why Kollapsniks think the Ruskie Goobermint is so stable though.

For myself, I will take a Middle Ground here (not available on the Survey) and stay in Alaska, but have it Repoed by Mother Russia. 🙂

OK, now get to it and take the new Ordering Preps for Collapse survey!

Survey: Fate of Countries in Collapse – Results: Currency Collapse

survey-says-2gc2smOff the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
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Published on the Doomstead Diner on September 22, 2015

toast2

Discuss the Results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

TAKE THE FATE OF COUNTRIES SURVEY HERE

One of the longest running arguments on the Diner is how various different countries will fare as collapse progresses forward.

http://www.philipcaruso-story.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Where-To-Live.jpgMost often, this pits the FSoA against China, and the Diner has some China Bulls and some China Bears.  I am a notorious China Bear gong back to my days on the Peak Oil Forum, where at the time because China was such a hot investment opportunity with double-digit growth rates it was common wisdom the Chinese would out-compete the FSoA Empire to lead the world in the second half of the 21st Century.  It was there I first added my Tag Line to analysis posts on China, "The Chinese are TOAST". 😀

Now in reality here, as time goes by EVERY industrialized nation is toast, in the sense every one is dependent on the systems that are driven by copious quantities of fossil fuel energy.  Once that energy can no longer be accessed or afforded, life as we know it now wll come to a halt.

However, this is unlikely to happen all at once, and it is unlikely to play itself out exactly the same way in different countries, different regions and even from town to town.

In this survey we look at the large nation states individually and regionally for the smaller ones, to find out the opinions of the Kollapsniks TM on which ones are the best positioned as collapse gathers speed, and which ones will fare the worst.

Besides China and the FSoA, the other one of the "Big Three" countries often discussed in comparing on this topic is Russia.  Russia is often cited as more resilient by virtue of the fact they already went through one collapse when the USSR collapsed, plus the fact they have a decent amount of fossil fuel energy still left in the ground.  However, they have numerous problems as well, wars ongoing to their south, the Ukrainian situation and enormous financial and currency turbulence.

Take the survey, and let us know who you think will do best and which ones worst as collapse gets fully underway.

TAKE THE FATE OF COUNTRIES SURVEY HERE

Results: Currency Collapse & Debt Implosion Survey

http://joeforamerica.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/survey-says.jpgOK, now onto the results from last week's Collapse Survey TM, Currency Collapse & Debt Implosion.

First question to look at is which of the current major currencies is likely to collapse first, and which has the potential to hold up the longest.

This is obviously important if you want to try to "preserve wealth", you certainly don't want to be holding the currency that collapses first! Duh. Roll Eyes

On the other hand, you have the problem of the utility of a currency in your neighborhood.

For instance, say the Norwegian Krone holds its value while the FSoA Dollar crashes.  Even if you have some Krone stashed in a Norwegian or Swiss Bank account, or even actually have some of their Notes in your basement safe along with your stash of Gold Coins, is Walmart going to take your Krone for a purchase of a bag of rice in Peoria, IL?  Not very likely.  You might stand a better chance in Europe, particularly Scandinavian countries if you have Krone, but here in the FSoA they are unlikely to do you a whole lot of good.  Only if you want to do currency trading during the spin down is this worthwhile to consider, and first off you need to be pretty flush to do that kind of trading, and second it's a fool's game these days with manipulated markets.  Even back in the day when I messed with currency trading it was nuts.  You have to leverage to beat the band to make any money this way.  You can get SWAMPED in a big move overnight.  Then the margin calls hit, and your next trip is out the window of the 49th floor.

Leaving aside the question of whether holding foreign currencies might benefit you personally, on the nation state level it's important to consider because he whose Currency crashes first, Collapses first.  So who is it gonna be?

I found the results of this particular question to be absolutely astounding.  Here's the results:

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
Chinese Renminby/Yuan 10
(9.8%)
23
(22.55%)
8
(7.84%)
17
(16.67%)
10
(9.8%)
8
(7.84%)
8
(7.84%)
1
(0.98%)
5.92 102 4.81 / 12
European Euro 9
(8.82%)
13
(12.75%)
15
(14.71%)
19
(18.63%)
10
(9.8%)
11
(10.78%)
5
(4.9%)
5
(4.9%)
5.24 102 4.88 / 12
Japanese Yen 15
(14.71%)
8
(7.84%)
13
(12.75%)
12
(11.76%)
11
(10.78%)
10
(9.8%)
8
(7.84%)
15
(14.71%)
4.92 102 4.98 / 12
Russian Ruble 7
(6.86%)
16
(15.69%)
21
(20.59%)
13
(12.75%)
8
(7.84%)
13
(12.75%)
2
(1.96%)
2
(1.96%)
5.91 102 4.99 / 12
Brasil Real 29
(28.43%)
14
(13.73%)
6
(5.88%)
3
(2.94%)
7
(6.86%)
5
(4.9%)
3
(2.94%)
4
(3.92%)
7.53 102 5.29 / 12
British Sterling/Pound 0
(0%)
3
(2.94%)
7
(6.86%)
10
(9.8%)
21
(20.59%)
6
(5.88%)
11
(10.78%)
16
(15.69%)
5.74 102 6.78 / 12
US Dollar 27
(26.47%)
7
(6.86%)
5
(4.9%)
1
(0.98%)
1
(0.98%)
3
(2.94%)
1
(0.98%)
2
(1.96%)
10.02 102 7.1 / 12
India Rupee 3
(2.94%)
13
(12.75%)
10
(9.8%)
4
(3.92%)
6
(5.88%)
8
(7.84%)
7
(6.86%)
6
(5.88%)
4.59 102 7.29 / 12
Canadian Loonie 0
(0%)
3
(2.94%)
4
(3.92%)
9
(8.82%)
2
(1.96%)
9
(8.82%)
16
(15.69%)
14
(13.73%)
6.69 102 7.66 / 12
Australian Dollar 1
(0.98%)
0
(0%)
5
(4.9%)
7
(6.86%)
8
(7.84%)
7
(6.86%)
11
(10.78%)
11
(10.78%)
7.49 102 7.84 / 12
Norwegian Krone 0
(0%)
2
(1.96%)
6
(5.88%)
2
(1.96%)
8
(7.84%)
5
(4.9%)
22
(21.57%)
17
(16.67%)
6.17 102 7.93 / 12
Swiss Franc 1
(0.98%)
0
(0%)
2
(1.96%)
5
(4.9%)
10
(9.8%)
17
(16.67%)
8
(7.84%)
9
(8.82%)
6.63 102 8.43 / 12

IMHO, this ordering is INSANE.  Apparently Kollapsniks TM think that the Chinese Renminby will collapse BEFORE the Euro and Yen!  WTF?  Not only that, the Indian Rupee will outlast the FSoA Dollar! hahahahahahahaha.

Which currency outlasts them ALL (according to Kollapsniks)?  The Swissie!  A currency issued by a tiny nation of 8M people with a GDP of $685B (2013 data) is going to outlast the Dollar and Renminby?  WTF?  There are more people living in NY Shity than all of Switzerland!

When the Euro goes down, the Swissie goes with it.  The SNB has HUGE exposure to Euro denominated debt, they have been buying it up to keep the exchange rate from going through the roof.  It's simply nuts to think this currency can outlast those of the Big 3.

My order for currency collapse?

Brasil Real
India Rupee
Russian Ruble
Japanese Yen
European Euro
British Sterling/Pound
Norwegian Krone
Swiss Franc
Australian Dollar
Canadian Loonie
Chinese Renminby/Yuan
US Dollar

Brasil is already on the serious ropes, and so is India.  Weak economies and too much poverty.  Russia should be strong, but they are a target for the Western Illuminati Banksters, so they will be under constant currency attack.  Yen & Euro go next, and then subsidiary currencies like Sterling, the Swissie and Krone go after them.  The Oz Dollar and Hoser Loonie keep value because of how closely they are connected to the FSoA Dollar.

One caveat to this is that once the cascade begins, it may be impossible to tell which one collapsed first.  Once a major like say the Japanese Yen collapses, this will cause so much havoc in the Interbank lending market that everything else will lock up in pico-seconds.

IMHO, the Final Battle for All the Currency Marbles is between the Chinese Renminby and the FSoA Dollar.  I think the Dollar wins this battle, because so much debt is denominated in dollars. Too many .01%ers have their wealth wrapped up in Dollars or Dollar denominated assets to let that one collapse.  We'll see on that one.

OK, now onto Q2, which is whether Gold & Silver will replace Fiat Currencies once they collapse?

Survey-Gold

  Yes No Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 34
(33.01%)
69
(66.99%)
17.5 103

Overwhelmingly by a 2/3rds majority, most Kollapsniks TM do not think Gold and Silver will replace Fiat once it crashes.

I tend to agree with that one, the PMs are too centralized and too few people have access to them for them to be workable as a currency medium.  There also is no clear idea on how these could be distributed out, or how letters of credit would be issued or anything else.  They might function as a Barter item, but as a currency that many use, it seems unlikely.

If Gold & Silver are NOT likely, what is likely once this Currency Regime fails? icon_scratch That was the subject for Q3.  Here's the results for that one:

  1 2 3 4 5 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
TPTB will institute a New World Currency, the SDR or something similar 37
(39.36%)
11
(11.7%)
19
(20.21%)
13
(13.83%)
14
(14.89%)
9.47 94 2.53 / 5
LETS (Local Exchange Trading System) Money will be issued in many locales 23
(24.47%)
21
(22.34%)
19
(20.21%)
26
(27.66%)
5
(5.32%)
7.28 94 2.67 / 5
Paper Money will be issued based on Gold and Silver held in a Central Bank 11
(11.7%)
19
(20.21%)
29
(30.85%)
22
(23.4%)
13
(13.83%)
6.46 94 3.07 / 5
Gold & Silver Coins will be used as Currency 7
(7.45%)
32
(34.04%)
18
(19.15%)
20
(21.28%)
17
(18.09%)
7.98 94 3.09 / 5
No money will work and Trade will be all Barter 16
(17.02%)
11
(11.7%)
9
(9.57%)
13
(13.83%)
45
(47.87%)
13.3 94 3.64 / 5

A large plurality (almost 40%) of Kollapsniks TM think that TPTB will be able to institute a new centralized currency regime from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland, Central Bank of Central Banks, Home Base for the Illuminati). This is a particularly favored idea by Conspiracy Theorists, but it is not one I hold as most likely.  The likely candidate are SDRs, aka Special Drawing Rights, a concoction the BIS already has in place for internal use based on some potpourri of currencies and commodities and who knows what else they threw in that basket..

I am not in that camp.  Perhaps they will try this, but to get every country in the world to cede their monetary sovereignty over to the BIS would be near impossible IMHO.  It's like the Euro on Steroids.  It really does nothing other than re-denominate debt, and it sure doesn't put any new resource back in the ground.   To me, this is a non-starter.  Not to say it won't be attempted though.  It's a last gasp effort for the Illuminati to maintain hegemony over the economic system.

LETS systems of Local Currencies come in at #2, and this I feel is most likely to occur.  Regional breakup of the One to the Many TM will at least at the beginning require each region to develop their own local currency.  Potlatch at this stage of the spin down seems unlikely.

Far as Centrally held Gold being a basis for a currency, to me this is also a non-starter.  If you have a Central Bank holding gold in the Basement Safe, after a crisis of banking confidence like this, who would not go to the bank and DEMAND their "Gold Backed Note" to actually be redeemable in said Gold?  Once the gold is redeemed, what does the Bank have as an Asset?  At this point, the Gold you redeem for the note the Bank printed on it is just a barter item.

Will all trade eventually go all Barter?  It's already on its way there in some places, but that will take some time in the core countries I imagine.   Cannot be sure on this though, a rapid collapse could make barter the only functioning economic system in your neighborhood for a while.  Good idea to have barterable goods in your preps. Alcohol and Cigarettes are traditional barter items, I suggest also Tampons, Pampers, Condoms, Ammo, & Shoes as good choices of barter goods that last a long time.  Shoes in particular, have you noticed how many of the pictures of refugees show them to be barefoot?  Once trade with China halts, shoes are going to be hard to come by.  Right now though, you can buy a nice pair of sneakers at Wally World for $15 on sale.

Finally in this survey, how long before the Dollar finally dies completely and you can't use it to buy food at the major food retailers?  This could be either because the Dollar has hyperinflated to worthlessness or the shelves are empty.  Here's the results for this one:

  2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 The Dollar will keep working for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 10
(9.71%)
16
(15.53%)
16
(15.53%)
22
(21.36%)
14
(13.59%)
25
(24.27%)
4.98 103

You have a pretty nice Bell Curve here, except for the 25% or so of people who thnk the Dollar will keep working past 2030.  The 2025 date seems about right to me, although again a major banking crisis and lockup could change that in an instant.

All in all, this was one of our most interesting surveys to date.

 

Survey: Which Currency Collapses First? Results: The Refugee Crisis

gc2smOff the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on September 8, 2015

money-burning

Discuss the results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

As our Global Economic System spins downward here, one of the most important near-term questions is what money will work and for how long?

When the initial phase of the economic collapse got underway in 2008, numeous pundits including John Williams of Shadow Stats, the Tyler Durdens from Zero Hedge and Speedy Gonzalo Lira all predicted imminent Hyperinflation of the Dollar resulting from Quantitative Easing by Da Fed, which never occurred.

In recent weeks however, we have seen big moves in various currencies from around the world, mostly depreciating against the Almighty Dollar.  Even the Chinese removed the peg of the Yuan/Renminby to the Dollar and depreciated their currency, to attempt to remain competitive in the export market with other cheap labor countries. Venezuela's currency is rapidly approaching worthlessness, and the Brazilian Real is starting to look like their old Cruzeiros.  As far as the developing world is concerned, it's a Race to the Bottom these days.

Far as the individual is concerned though, it's important to know which currencies will fall in value fastest, and of course try to have savings in currencies which will last longest.  There are location problems with this of course, since say if you hold Swissies but live in Montana, it's unlikely the local Walmart will take your Swissies for a Can of Beans.  Even if you do believe the Chinese are going to Inherit the Earth, is holding Renminby a good idea?

What about the Precious Metals?  Will they be functional as currency once the last of the current Fiat regimes collapses?

Your opinions on these crucial questions of collapse are solicited in this week's Collapse SurveyTM.

TAKE THE CURRENCY COLLAPSE SURVEY HERE

survey-saysNow onto the results from last week's survey, The Refugee Crisis Survey!


The Refugee Crisis has been the HOT Topic in the world of Collapse over the last week.  Besides myself, Tom Lewis (Daily Impact), Jason Heppenstall (22 Billion Energy Slaves) and Jim Kunstler (Clusterfuck Nation) all weighed in on this topic, along with numerous other articles around the web, both from MSM and Alternative Media sources.

Here on the Diner, we identified this problem fairly early on in the Official Refugee Thread, begun by Eddie in May of 2015.  It has of course escalated substantially since then, and we chronicled the escalation over the last few months in that thread.

This month as it escalated, I got together with a few of my fellow Collapse Bloggers and Authors, Ugo Bardi (Resource Crisis), Steve Ludlum (Economic Undertow) and Norman Pagett (The End of More) to discuss this issue.

After that, I also Ranted on the Refugee Crisis, since there is so much insanity going on with it this makes for good Rant Material.

So this is the history to date of the Refugee Crisis, but what of the FUTURE?  What do Kollapsniks TM think will play out here, how and on what timeline?  So in additon to all the rest, I worked up a Refugee Crisis Survey to get some feedback and numbers on this one.

Here is how it plays out according to Kollapsniks TM.

Survey-refugee-1

Survey-refugee-1

If you were in charge on the Hungarian Border or Italian Beaches, what would be your First Choice for handling the Tsunami of Refugees from MENA?

  Build Refugee Camps and solicit Food Aid from the Red Cross Increase Taxes to send Food Aid to their home countries and set up Refugee Camps there Shoot on sight any Refugees entering your country, including Women and Children Mine and Fence all Borders including harbors and beaches Shut down the Interrail between European Countries Ship them back to where they came from as soon as they arrive (you pay the shipping with your taxes) Give them all a Free Ticket to Germany or Sweden Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 25
(32.05%)
11
(14.1%)
13
(16.67%)
1
(1.28%)
0
(0%)
10
(12.82%)
18
(23.08%)
8.2 78

http://www.profit-over-life.org/teachers_guide/images/germany/buchenwald_kz/buchenwald_crematorium_bones.jpg About 1/3rd of the respondents chose setting up Refugee Camps and soliciting aid from the Red Cross, which basically is the humane, traditional approach to this sort of situation.  However, when the numbers grow large, this methodology tends to break down pretty quickly.  In fact, it has broken down so quickly in Germany they shut down the borders in an attmept to control the problem, AND they are now housing at least some of the refugees at BUCHENWALD.  Yes, that's right, one of the most infamous of the Concentration Camps from WWII, along with Auschwitz and Teresenstadt, where at least one Czech Politician has suggested would be a good repository for these refugees.  What MESSAGE does this send, eh?

The next most popular idea was to give all the refugees a Free Ticket to Germany or Sweden, which definitely would be a cheaper alternative then trying to house all of them.  This might have worked through Monday, when the Krauts shut down the border with Austria.  They clearly are not going to keep taking all comers, and neither I suspect will Sweden.

The countries getting stuck with the refugees are those which simply do not have any real means to keep them out, Turkey currently has around 2 MILLION of them, and I'll bet Serbia is stacking up too.  These Refugee Camps are of course Terrorist Breeding Grounds, accidents waiting to happen.

OK, on to Q2, a Yes/No question on whether Fences and Walls can do anything to resolve this problem.  This is basically split right down the middle amongst Kollapsniks TM.

Survey-refugee-2

How long before Migration begins in earnest out of California to escape drought and water depletion?

  It has already begun. 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years >10 years There will not be a migration out of California, water problems will be solved. Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 19
(24.68%)
5
(6.49%)
21
(27.27%)
14
(18.18%)
3
(3.9%)
3
(3.9%)
12
(15.58%)
6.95 77

Survey-refugee-3

Is Wall & Fence building, mining harbors and deploying military personel to secure borders going to have a significant effect in preventing or slowing migrations?

  Yes No Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 37
(48.05%)
40
(51.95%)
1.5 77

This is not a lot different than the Two Party problem of Repubtards vs Demodummies.  If you are anywhere near a 50-50 split, nothing gets done, no side has a clear majority and you get locked up in decision making on anything.  Anyone with a little MONEY can sway an election either way at the 50-50 line, you just need to buy a few votes or a few SCOTUS Judges.  See the Bush-Gore Election for this.

My opinion on whether Fences and Walls are a good solution?

hahahahahahahahahahahaha!

It's a waste of time and money, has never worked in the past and won't work now either.  You can't man them and staff them economically and they are way easier to knock down then they are to build in the first place.

Survey-refugee-4

How long before the migration problem overwhelms the capacity of Europe to protect its borders and North America to seal the southern border with Mexico?

  It has already been overwhelmed 1 year 5 years 10 years >10 years The ability to prevent migration will not be overwhelmed, migration can always be prevented if you build and staff your defenses properly. Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 36
(47.37%)
10
(13.16%)
14
(18.42%)
4
(5.26%)
5
(6.58%)
7
(9.21%)
10.95 76

Now onto the text responses!  This is where it really gets interesting, because you start to see the ideological mindset at work here in various groups and types of people. 🙂

Warning!  You may find some replies unpleasant!

What other option would you choose first to handle the Refugee problem?
Anyone who exhibits aggressive behavior is sent back
Arrest them and ship them home.
Autonomous drones. Put chemical weapons back on the table.
build refugee camps
Citizenship and Integration
Crucifixion sends a message that's hard to miss.
electric wire
encourage the USA to receive
with open arms the "huddled
masses"
Enlist aid from other countries to send to MENA home countries
Europe: Work out who can handle new immigrants best and how and be fair to all countries.
But mainly: All those Middle Eastern countries that are doing nothing to help their neighbours, like Saudi Arabia, need to start taking the brunt of the burden.
Find some agreement with other European countries to share the load more equally. Hire more people to process asylum requests.
Forced sterilization of all politicians and their families.
Give them guns and march them back to their own country
Highlight the actual problem that the USA is the real problem in the press, at the UN, the Vatican and every other outlet. Boycott US products.
Huge weapons tax on any manufacturer selling to the Middle East (like 50%)
I would start a infrastructure project, like updating and maintaining all the rail roads through labor (not just machines), and give every refugee a right to stay, with a small plot of land, if they volounteer for the work
In the longer term, quit interfering in foreign countries and making things worse.
Increase bombing in their home countries so you don't need to shoot them when they get to the new one.
Increase public awareness campaigns, try and get more people to donate to charities that support the refugee crisis, try to find jobs for some refugees
Increasing taxes for aid would be my second choice from the list.
It is irresponsible to just send them all to Germany or Sweden. The numbers of potential migrants from their home countries will never be depleted and so the "Tsunami" will never end (until Germany and Sweden are hellish shitholes)
Labor camps, get them fixing infrastructure.
lodge them in properties of value in excess of one million pounds sterling ,or European equivalent.
Make sure they knew that their was their was not sanctuary to be found for them in the poorer countries.
Poverty, injustice, over breeding, overpopulation, suffering, oppression, military rule, squalor, torture, terror, massacre: these ancient evils feed and breed on one another in synergistic symbiosis. To break the cycles of pain at least two new forces are required: social equity – and birth control. Population control. Our Hispanic neighbors are groping toward this discovery. If we truly wish to help them we must stop meddling in their domestic troubles and permit them to carry out the social, political, and moral revolution which is both necessary and inevitable.
Or if we must meddle, as we have always done, let us meddle for a change in a constructive way. Stop every campesino at our southern border, give him a handgun, a good rifle, and a case of ammunition, and send him home. He will know what to do with our gifts and good wishes. The people know who their enemies are.

 

 

 

 

Edward Abbey

Pressure the UN and EU to pick up the slack and help out.
Put them in China's Ghost Cities.
Refuse entry
Secure Western Syria with UN troops to include US & Russian. Take the fight to the Islamic state. Secure Syrians and Iraqis in there homeland.
Ship them back.
Shoot on sight, border mines
Short of actively trying to prevent war in their countries in the first place, instead of encouraging it to profit from arms sales and reduced labour costs in Europe (we could all see this coming years ago):

 

 

 

 

Build Refugee Camps and Increase Taxes (probably not necessary) for food Aid here.

Solve the problems in their home country
Stop attacking other countries
Stop bombing the bejesus out of their homes
Stop imperialistic wars and the consumption of fossil fuels.
stop the 'west' from funding the unrest. Tee heee…………….
when living creatures are caged together the become stressed and eat each other. You are right, this is a wicked problem. As we knock hard against limits things cannot end with enough for all.
Take out actors who are forcing people to migrate. Isis comes to mind.
There is no good option
try to lessen our government's involvement with generating rip-off of their country's resources.
Try to solicit clerks from other European countries to help with processing the refugees
UNCHR refugee camps close to home countries. Much cheaper and a chance to repatriate the refugees.
Use nuclear weapons on north Africa to kill as many as possible.
Warning shots.
Well, since we gave up completely, long ago, on logic-driven "social policy" and most governments are treating their populations like shit through the use of barbaric policing, there is no real option. We're doomed to unthinking policies and to being told what we will accept. Obviously MENA could function better, but privileged people have benefitted from shitty exploitative global policies, so now they apparently, deserve to have their lives disrupted (even tho they had no real say in these policies). Anyone, from here on out, with stupid ideas to exploit others in ways that severely disrupts a decent way of life, should be jailed in public squares where the rest of us can spit on them and poke them with sticks. However, at this point, we're doomed.
Wow what the fuck even is this survey.

 

Donald Trump has a platform of Deporting Migrants.  Can this platform be implemented, and if so how? (Text Response)
Being a non US citizen I am not up to date on the platform itself.
I can only see it ending in bodies though.
Building a wall
Don't know.
Donald Trump is an incoherent fuckwit.
Doubt it, too many leftie losers
Enforce existing laws. Most will self deport.
Use homeland security to hunt down and dump the rest in Mexico – regardless where they have come from.
First you have to enforce the laws already on the books.

 

 

 

 

The people who employ illegal migrants should be fines and imprisoned… the migrants will not come if their is nothing for them here.

Then start making the deportation stream line and efficient.

Give them back Califonia.
he is a twat
He will threaten them with his hair monster.
His ideas will not work.
I can only see this policy be executed on the condition that there is a false flag attack against the US that is blamed on Mexican terrorists. The attack would give cover for the mass deportation agenda that would never be acceptable to the majority of Americans.

 

 

 

 

The plight of millions of
Mexicans and Latinos being violently dispossessed of their property and liberty would not go unnoticed and something like a civil war could break out. With the massive amounts of jailed people combined with the ease of access to firearms, a radicalized resistance could quickly escalate into armed struggle on a huge scale.

A huge migration of dispossessed people within Mexico could be disruptive to their politics as usual.

I fear it would take a violent form, shipping migrants on huge boats, probably with mass casualties
I have no idea what Trump's plan is
I have no knowledge on the subject
I think that platform is unworkable mostly.
I've no idea. I'm not American so I don't know about this.
Illegal migrants should be repatriated to their homelands. Mexico uses the US as a means to get rid of its poor and criminal class. Anyone with a criminal record needs to be sent back immediately as a good start. Build prisons in Mexico and send all these criminals we are supporting back to where they came from. I has to be cheaper. Pretty expensive jobs program here in the US.
It can be implemented at the point of a gun. If enough people support the Donald the plan will be implemented, if not it will fail in a film at 11 extravaganza of tear gas riot police and screams of refugee lives matter.
It will impede an already broke and overloaded systems and increase collapse.
It will not be possible, there are too many migrants and attempts of deportation will result in violence.
No
No
no
No – he's blowing smoke
No, it cannot. There is too much political opposition in the United States to do anything of scale no matter your political party/ideology.
No, It's too late.
No, there are too many
No, there are too many migrants for that.
No.
No.
NO.
No. Congress would write and bill, make a law and then not fund it.
No. It is an exercise in absurdity.
No….he is a moron who thinks the presidency is about snapping his fingers and having others jump.

 

 

 

 

He would be very unhappy with reality… and if fact has no desire to actually be POTUS, he is currently just drumming up free publicity for his brand.

Not possible
Not really. The Southwest is 30% Latin. If they ever start voting, the Trumps of the world will be barbecued on a spit

 

 

 

 

Se habla Espanol, ya'll.

Probably not, and if it can, it's unethical and barbaric.
Sure. Those who survive will try again, but it can be done.
Trump's talking out his arse.
Wall
We are already deporting more under Obama than any past president. Can we realistically do more than that.
What's the platform.
Who.
With 11 million "illegal" imigrants, the horse is out of the barn
Yes, if they crossed the US, Mexico border, send them back.
Yes, secret police.
Yes, use of military to enforce border protection
How will Donald Trump handle internal migration problems from drought ravaged regions in the FSoA? (text response)
Again as an outsider, I cannot see it ending peacefully. My guess would be that it would be "managed' by some sort of terrible 'disaster' where the administration could the provide assistance to the 'survivors'
All he can do is give service. The cost of this is going to overwhelm the system.

 

 

 

 

Their is no solution to this except a large population reduction.

Bigger walls.
Blame somebody else
Brutality.
Concentration camps
Deport people back to the states they came from.
Deportion
Ditto question 5
Don't know.
Donald Trump AGAIN.!! FSoA pop will hold off migrating till they can get a good deal on the sale of their house; then it'll be too late cuz no one will be buying… That's when the hoards will finally migrate; with nothing. Then they'll be "the homeless" and we all know how we've come to treat "the homeless".
Dont know
Fail.
Give them a straw AND free transport to the Great Lakes
Going on Fox News and Blaming the victims.

 

 

 

 

and building a gold plated tower…

He can't, It's too much for him to figure out.
He might conquer Canada and open up homesteading there.
He will give speeches and after expressing two cents worth of sympathy he will tell them to get jobs.
He will invariably do something profoundly stupid that makes the problem vastly worse.
He will not address it
He will threaten then with his hair monster.
He won't need to
He won't, because he won't be elected. Even Americans aren't that heartless and stupid as to let him take office.
He'll run a solutions competition, and the winner will be a for-profit plan that will relocate millions of poor people into giant new suburb slums outside of exiting urban areas with more water resources. The slums will be built out of recycled steel shipping containers nicknamed Trumpholes.
His people will think of something.
I already mentioned that he is a twat
I don't believe he will be elected. Assuming he is elected, I do not know enough of his platform to give a worthwhile response.
I don't know
I have no knowledge on the subject
I think he will blame immigrants for taking the water and force them out.
just like everything else he does, by saving the rich at the expense of the poor, through violence if needed
lost in space
Non issue
Not a clue. Just following the 1986 regulations would help. California is destined to be a third world state in my opinion.
Not at all
nothing
Put them in camps.
Renounce the citizenship of all Hispanics and Blacks. Then implement 5.
Sell the sw refugees condos in trump towers
The same way the FSoA handles 92 million unemployed. Trailer parks hunger and rotten teeth.
Whatever it is, it will be H-U-U-U-U-GE!
Who.
Why don't you ask Donald.
You fired!
You know, I'm starting to think this poll isn't completely neutral.
If you were in charge, what policies would you put in place now to try and stem the tide of refugees all over the world? (text response)
Actively try to prevent war in their countries in the first place, instead of encouraging it to profit from arms sales. And actual regulation of multinationals that operate from my home country instead of pretending they do not exploit workers and people abroad (and at home).
As King of the World. Migration is a fact. It will happen as climate change begins to bite. Develop soft population growth controls and alter national boundaries/resource consumption to accomodate as many people as possible while working to decreace total population to a sustainable number through natural reductions. (Like this ever has a chance in hell of happening).
Best to provide aid to their homelands and keep people home and with their own cultures. This will become increasing difficult though since the financial system is running on fumes and is really broke.
Birth control for.the population forced sterilization of all elite and their families.
Birth reduction/control.

 

 

 

 

No new babies!!!

Call an emergency meeting of the UN, find a way in which the whole world pitches in.
Can't be done
Deport liberals
Deportations.
Development of autonomous drones. Scrap traditional warfare conventions. There will be no way for humans to stop what's coming. It's time to call in the heartless machines.
Don't stem it. People are getting killed and tortured. Build cheap housing for them, give them a tiny income, hire more police and schoolteachers to reduce the trouble they'll cause. Raise taxes to do all this. When natives complain that the refugees make life slightly harder for them, point out that asylum is a human right.
Drop money instead of bombs.
Educating women seems to be the best way to lower the birth rate. I'd try to educate and empower women in 3rd world countries.

 

 

 

 

Too little too late, though.

erect electric fences
Get all NATO nations together, invade the MIddle East, gain full control of the region and develop it.
I doubt it would take more than a few shots fired and people would be too afraid to try again.
I think the only way we can really stop the migration refugees is to go to the route of the problem. We know why refugees are fleeing their birthplace. Why don't we do anything. They should feel safe. We should end these wars rather than capitalize on them and start them. Ending the source of the conflict would be the only measure I feel would significantly make refugees want to stay in their country.
Another, harsher option would be to reduce the amount of pull factors that entice migrants and refugees. If we limited the amount of perks then surely less refugees would want to arrive in a country e.g. make them unable to have NHS covered healthcare until after a certain amount of time, make them unable to claim benefits until they have evidence that they have searched for a certain number of jobs in a certain period of time.
I would give every person a basic income, instead of other benefits and government programs, which would be enough for survival (adapted to each country's standard of living) and simple living
I wouldn't do this because refugees are human too and deserve to be somewhere safe. Just because they're not rich and powerful doesn't mean they don't deserve safety.
I'm so tempted to say "wholesale takeover of one part of Middle East so that we could set up a working country there, for refugees and aid them to create a better country" but that's pipe dreams. As long as ISIS and Boko Haram etc are operating, there will be refugees and crisis. The only solution is to end the vast imbalance of rich vs. poor – worldwide implementation of high taxation of the top 10%; no country providing "havens" – then we'd have the money to help those who need assistance setting up their lives in a peaceful place. The crisis is due to rich and powerful sucking up the funds to pay for their fun.
If I were "in charge" I would RESIGN IMMEDIATELY, and go spend the rest of the collapse in a suite in Las Vegas,play a fiddle for irony…and Bill the Koch Brothers for services rendered to pay for it all!
Immediately dismiss the neocon cabal orchestrating US foreign policy and bring charges for war crimes against the lot. If the Empire of Chaos would stop its continuous policy of divide-and-rule, the political dimension of the refugee crisis would be mitigated. The coming climate change aspects would, of course, not be.
IMPOSE strict food rationing on indigenous population. for travelers ,bring or grow your own or starve.Its going to happen anyway
International military action to make their homelands safe and foreign aid to keep them from starving. I would form a team of experts to figure out where refugees can go that would cause the least amount of disruption in host countries and which would piss off the smallest number of people.
It is too late.
World population needs to be reduced uniformly and by a large amount.
These issues are an obvious consequence of larger, overarching problems which have been known about for a long time.
We are unfortunate to live in these times.
My brain hurts when I think about it. Being a mother I am torn between wanting to nurture and save(if the numbers are not overwhelming, big if I know) versus getting the claws out to protect valuable resources for my kin. The level of pragmatic coolness with which I can speculate on 'solutions' is disquieting in a way.
No policies will help, too late.
no solution really, we are in overshoot phase
Nothing
Outlaw war.
Politics is about interest, but we could all be fairer and make sure that those don't play fair suffer because of it.
Put them in camps that provide 3 pots and a cot and nothing more.
Rapid culling of the human herd to <1B may provide a viable path for the remainder. Otherwise, economic and environmental conditions continue to deteriorate to the point of no return for all. So let's just cut to the chase and whack the vast majority of the proles. It's gonna happen anyway.
Renounce the UN Charter on Refugees.
Pass a law making it a death penalty offense to be an illegal immigrant – regardless of age or gender.
Rescind citizenship of ALL non Whites and Jews.
Declare ALL non Whites and Jews without citizenship to be illegal immigrants.
Implement the law without mercy, pity or compassion.
Self solving problem we are in massive population overshoot, ecological collapse, a warming planet.
Sink the boats
Sink the boats!
Stop bombing them and raping their natural resources.
Arrest the bankers and captains of the Military Industrial Complex.
stop Donald trump and idiocravy
Stop fucking coming over or you will be shot.
Stop imperialistic wars and the consumption of fossil fuels.
Stop the deliberate creation of failed states such as Iraq, Syria,Ukraine.
Who am I kidding. There is no steming this, we are all out of stems, no stems to be had, stemless.
Stop the MIC from ceeating refugees. Mandatory sterilization all women after 1 child. Restoration agriculture.
Stop the wars that's producing refugees in the first place. Someone smarter than me should be able to figure out how.
Stop US military everywhere and stop pressuring Russia.
There effectively is no way to stop people from trying to get to places that seem better than where they come from.

 

 

 

 

The only thing that can be done is resolve some of the military conflicts; its the only thing about which we have any control (climate change is probably no longer in out control for the short term, anyway).

Unfortunately, the conflicts continue tomultiply without any end in sight. The last round of interventionist policies of the early 2000s caused even more instability than the previous round of interventions in the mid 1990s.

Is there anyone that seriously thinks more intervention is going to solve the conflicts.

There is NO policy that can work now; world pops are too far into the destruction of what was. I certainly couldn't stop the current ripping apart of established, uniquely defined cultures and institutions, thereby forcing people to migrate. Nor could I force other uniquely defined functioning societies to accept overwhelming numbers of uniquely defined and foreign populations. Disrupting civilization ie social systems without rules except as defined by force of the now migrating hoards will always result in disorienting chaos and hostilities. Humans simply can't process, least of all assimilate drastic and dramatic demographic changes into everyday living. This is more of the typical shit started at "The Decider top" for private gains and paid for by the masses at "the bottom" by socializing the costs. Insulting thinking people who want some kind of orderly and comprehensive policies, by labeling them racists and xeno-phobes is only inciting anger. The human condition naturally resists chaos and fear of losing what's familiar. Inclusive empathy only stretches so far before people and systems break down. Another factor of decline and doom.
There is no solution.
Theres nothing that can be done.
Try to find a solution to the problems in their original homes so that there is no need for migration.
Walls. Military. Boarder Guards

OK, that is what the sample of Kollapsniks TM thinks about this problem.

What do I think about it?  Joe D asked this question when I dropped on the Survey:

I made the following point in a text box in the survey and would love to hear more from you directly…that being to get from 8B to 4B to 1B people on the planet in less than two generations means lots of people will die unnaturally.  And if this is not only probable but also potentially beneficial to the remainder, why do all of our conversations revolve around minimizing death rather than accepting its long term benefit to the survival of our species and planet?  I know it feels a little immoral, or at least a little amoral,  but isnt it the right thing? Isnt more death helpful to our long term survival?

Unfortunately, unnatural death is often ugly and sorted so it's easy to throw ideas which support it under the bus as disgusting barbarism. But maybe they are neither disgusting nor barbaric.  Rather they are necessary, practical, and inevitable.

The fact of the matter is this is a Wicked Problem.  It doesn't have a solution which is palatable to everyone, and the solutions that will be undertaken are all inherently unfair, chaotic etc.  The text answers given above are for the most part incredibly STUPID.  I do these things to try to get a feel for the pulse of J6P, but it is incredibly dissapointing when you actually take this pulse.

There is no way to equitably reduce a population of Homo Sap.  It's always a chaotic adventure.  The fact we are in such a massive overshoot situation now means the dowspin is going to be orders of magnitude greater in chaos than has ever come before.  the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are coming, and staying out of their path will take a lot of luck and planning.  Now would be a good time to get started if you have not already.

090901horsemen

 

Survey Says: Best Collapse Location / New Survey: Most Evil Recent POTUS

survey-says-2Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on August 18, 2015

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survey-says

Discuss the Stats at the Survey Table inside the Diner

First, the results from last week's Collapse SurveyTM on the BEST place to Hole Up as Collapse accelerates around the Industrial World.  Very good sample size this week, 140 respondents so far.  The rankings haven't changed much since the first 25 came in, so confidence level is high that this represents the view of most KollapsniksTM.

Full Stats are down at the bottom of the page.

Unsurprising this week, New Zealand ranked #1 as Best Collapse Hole Up location.  My own Hole of Alaska ranked #2.

Apparently some folks did not know where Tristan da Cunha, Edinburgh of the Seven Seas is.  It's widely considered to be the most remote inhabited island in the world.

Tristan da Cunha

The most remote archipelago and the most remote inhabited island is Tristan da Cunha in the South Atlantic Ocean, 2,434 km (1,512 mi) from Saint Helena, 2,816 km (1,750 mi) from South Africa, and 3,360 km (2,090 mi) from South America

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/03/06/2661A5E700000578-0-image-a-91_1425651551507.jpg

I was a little surprised the Sea Gypsy paradigm of going mobile on a Sailboat did not rank a bit higher.  Since a sailboat allows you to go just about anywhere and also can be pretty self-sufficient with a reverse osmosis water desalinator and solar PV panels and wind turbine, this paradigm has a lot going for it.

Few seem to think underground living in a bunker is a real good solution.

http://www.atlassurvivalshelters.com/data1/images/2.jpg

OK now on to this week's Collapse SurveyTM! 🙂

Take the New Survey HERE

We did a survey a couple of week's ago on who would be the WORST choice for the next POTUS.  Guess who won?

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.110525.1313948902!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_970/alg-donald-trump-jpg.jpg

Trumpism: The Ideology

Podcast with Jeffrey Tucker on Donald Trump

Basically for my entire life, each time a POTUS gets elected, he is instantly HATED by at least a portion of the people that elected him to office to begin with, usually for reneging on promises made or for doing something really stupid, but conversation at the Pub is always about how the current POTUS blows chunks. The Donald is HATED even before he gets elected. LOL.

So for this week's survey, I went back as far as Franky Roosevelt, who actually served FOUR terms as POTUS before they limited that to two terms.  FDR got the job of handling both Collapse effects of the Great Depression and WWII, so he seemed to be a good one to start with.  I am trying to keep these ranking surveys with only as many choices as will fit on the page at once, otherwise they become too difficult to do.  You have to scroll up and down as you move the choices around, it's a pain in the ass.

So, which of these recent POTUS was the MOST Evil, and who was the LEAST Evil?

Below are some features of their time spent running the FSoA to consider:

Franky Roosevelt:

Provoked the Japanese into attacking Pearl Harbor by Embargoing Japan. Created the Social Security system and vastly increased Federal bureaucracy. Confiscated Gold.

Harry Truman

Dropped the Bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Dwight Eisenhower

Built the Interstate Highways and created modern Amerikan Happy Motoring Mall culture.  POTUS during the McCarthy Communist Purge in the 1950s.

Jack Kennedy

Got us into Vietnam.  Almost got WWIII started over the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Fucked Marilyn Monroe.

Lyndon Johnson

Escalated the Vietnam War.  Created the Great Society Social Welfare system.

Richard Nixon

"I am not a Crook".  Watergate. Cambodia. Took the FSoA off the Gold Standard and went All Fiat, all the time.

Gerald Ford

Pardoned Richard Nixon

Jimmy Carter

Iranian Hostage Crisis.  Lust in his Heart.  Farmed Peanuts.

Ronald Rayguns

Fired all the Air Traffic Controllers.  "Trickle Down'' Economics. Star Wars Missile Defense Program.

Bush the First

CIA Director.  Panama. Gulf War.

Billy Clinton

Repealed Glass-Steagall.  Got Blowjobs from Monica Lewinsky in the Oval Office

Bush the Second

Iraq. Afghanistan. Patriot Act.  WTC. War on Terror.

Barry Obama

Obamacare. TPP. More Afghanistan.  NDAA. Golfed while Rome Burned.

 

OK!  Now you get to rank this Rogue's Gallery from Most to Least Evil!

Take the survey HERE

Collapse Locations Full Stats

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard Deviation Responses Weighted Average
New Zealand 30
(21.58%)
14
(10.07%)
11
(7.91%)
18
(12.95%)
33
(23.74%)
10
(7.19%)
8
(5.76%)
3
(2.16%)
10.14 139 4.24 / 12
Alaska 19
(13.67%)
16
(11.51%)
17
(12.23%)
28
(20.14%)
13
(9.35%)
10
(7.19%)
6
(4.32%)
8
(5.76%)
7.1 139 4.81 / 12
Nunavut 25
(17.99%)
18
(12.95%)
13
(9.35%)
13
(9.35%)
9
(6.47%)
12
(8.63%)
10
(7.19%)
11
(7.91%)
5.24 139 5.17 / 12
Amazonia 6
(4.32%)
29
(20.86%)
14
(10.07%)
14
(10.07%)
20
(14.39%)
18
(12.95%)
5
(3.6%)
10
(7.19%)
7.35 139 5.19 / 12
Tasmania 8
(5.76%)
10
(7.19%)
7
(5.04%)
8
(5.76%)
12
(8.63%)
13
(9.35%)
35
(25.18%)
14
(10.07%)
7.83 139 6.45 / 12
Finland 10
(7.19%)
8
(5.76%)
11
(7.91%)
7
(5.04%)
11
(7.91%)
11
(7.91%)
10
(7.19%)
35
(25.18%)
7.77 139 6.59 / 12
Tristan da Cunha 9
(6.47%)
5
(3.6%)
6
(4.32%)
8
(5.76%)
8
(5.76%)
33
(23.74%)
20
(14.39%)
15
(10.79%)
7.88 139 6.6 / 12
Siberia 5
(3.6%)
4
(2.88%)
25
(17.99%)
13
(9.35%)
9
(6.47%)
8
(5.76%)
8
(5.76%)
13
(9.35%)
5.99 139 6.94 / 12
Nova Scotia 4
(2.88%)
14
(10.07%)
6
(4.32%)
6
(4.32%)
10
(7.19%)
10
(7.19%)
11
(7.91%)
11
(7.91%)
8.9 139 7.45 / 12
Sea Gypsy/Sailboat 5
(3.6%)
6
(4.32%)
9
(6.47%)
6
(4.32%)
4
(2.88%)
10
(7.19%)
11
(7.91%)
8
(5.76%)
8.04 139 7.87 / 12
Hawaii/Tahiti/South Pacific Island 6
(4.32%)
11
(7.91%)
14
(10.07%)
11
(7.91%)
5
(3.6%)
2
(1.44%)
6
(4.32%)
7
(5.04%)
11.28 139 7.89 / 12
Underground Bunker 12
(8.63%)
4
(2.88%)
6
(4.32%)
7
(5.04%)
5
(3.6%)
2
(1.44%)
9
(6.47%)
4
(2.88%)
15.18 139 8.79 / 12

Survey: The Most Pressing Problems of Collapse

Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on July 31, 2015

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the-day-after-tomorrow_statue

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

Recently James Hansen, considered by many to be the #1 Climate Scientist in the world published an academic article of over 100 pages in length where he delineates scientifc evidence for ongoing and rapidly accelerating Climate Change.  Said climat change seems likely to cause a hefty Sea Level Rise a good deal faster than the Century or more it was originally predicted to take.  According to Jim, we could se Big Shities like Miami and New York going under inside 30 years if we don't "change our ways".

Now, it's pretty clear in low lying cities like Miami that this is already today's problem, not tomorrow's problem.  With every High Tide and just a little extra push from a light breeze, the Miami streets start flooding and the sewage systems backup.

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/miami-flooding.jpg

You would think with this occurring on virtually a monthly basis, people would get a clue and start moving out of Miami, but alas no.  The Florida State Goobermint itself is in Denial about the problem, because of course the last thing they want to do is panic the residents, watch the real estate market and tax revenues tank and lose their jobs!  So they jawbone about great new techno infrastructure projects, they'll build a big Dyke around FL, just like those industrious Little Dutch Boys did in Holland!  Precisely where they will get the $trillions necessary to try and pull off this stunt is anybody's guess.  Certainly Florida Pols have no clue as to where the money will come form.

http://www1.rfi.fr/actuen/images/108/netherlands_dikes_floods_432.jpgNeedless to say, as impressive as that infrasturcture is in the Netherlands, they will be going under also here in the not too distant future.

So Sea Level Rise is clearly a pretty significant problem we have to face here, but it's sure not the only problem coming down the pipe, or even on our doorstep already!

Inland, far away from the beaches and well above Sea Level, Las Vegas and Phoenix have the OPPOSITE problem, the water isn't arriving, it's LEAVING!  Fresh water in this case also, which is kind of important for people since they need it to DRINK, not to mention grow their AG crops.

http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/v2_article_large/public/2015/04/22/lake-mead-1.jpgLake Mead provides the most obvious problem here on this front, but it of course is the Tip of the Proverbial Iceberg.  The same problem is hitting about every CA Resevoir, and then the entire Ogallalla Aquifer is being drained as well, which provides the AG water for the "breadbasket" of the FSoA, the midwester Corn, Soybeabs and Wheat fields which provide the bulk of the food for not just Fat Amerikans, but also for the many places we ship Food Aid too.  When this food production system goes down, it's not "Houston, we've got a Problem" or even  "Vancouver! Vancouver! This is IT!", it's "World, we've got a problem, and this is IT!"

Same drought and food production problems of course are occurring in many places, Sao Paolo in Brasil, India hit by this and of course the entire region of MENA, which generally has been undergoing progressive desertification for a few thousand years of AG civilizations in the neighborhood.

http://www.techandinnovationdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/FukushimaPic.jpgAs if that wasn't enough here, we also have that small problem of over 400 Nuke Puke reactors sprinkled around the Globe, with their associated Spent Fuel Ponds usually housed right on the property because nobody can figure out precisely what they want to do with the Puke.

Each and every one of these plants is a Fukushima Daichi 1 waiting to happen, and it doesn't take a Tsunami or Earthquake to do it, all it takes is for the Electrical Grid to go down for a long enough time and for the cooling systems for the spent fuel ponds to quit.  So in all likelihood, unless we get off the pot here and start cleaning up this mess very soon, pretty much the entire world will have Thyroid Cancer rates similar to those in Fukushima Prefecture already.  That won't necessarily kill off everybody immediately, but it's not going to make life any more pleasant either.

Meanwhile in the Newz every day we have those other small problems of the Monetary system imploding and all those little WARS people seem to find a need to start, be they our own set of Neocon assholes like Dick Cheney or ISIS Insaniacs like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.  The fucking Ecoomistas and Banksters running the monetary system are either CLUELESS or just plain EVIL, and the folks in charge of the War Machines on all sides are all incontrovertibly EVIL, so this obviously is not a very good situation to be in.  If your leadership is either Clueless or Evil, you got real problemss here.

Did I mention that little ENERGY problem we have ongoing here?  Those millions of years of Fossil Fuels we have been harvesting up and burning are running kind of thin on a Global level, while at the same the Population seems to still be increasing and more people every day aspire to living the Happy Motoring lifestyles that Amerikans and Europeans got in the post WWII years.  theGreat Myth was this "prosperity" could be delivered to everyone, but it cannot be, because of course the resources and the planet are Finite.  You can't have Infinite Growth on a Finite World, but that is what the politicians and the economista promise to the population on a daily basis.

So, clearly we have just a SHIT LOAD of problems here, but at the same time when you get scientists like James Hansen telling you Sea Level rise is gonna be a big problem and Religious leaders like the Pope delivering a similar message, the focus of discussions tends to be on these things.  Is Sea Level Rise really the biggest problem we face, and on what timeline?  What do we really need to be concerned with, and when?  Prioritization is necessary.

In an effort to get some kind of handle on this, I dropped on a Survey allowing Kollapsniks to Rank the problems we are facing, so we can focus on the most pressing problmes which will hit the first and/or the hardest.  Basically, you do not need to worry about Sea Level Rise if Nuclear War will kill you first.  You don't need to worry about Food Production problems if you simply cannot acquire food because the monetary system has collapsed and the distribution sytem fails.

I will say the preliminary results from this survey surprised me a bit, given I know which websites the respondents frequent and what is HOT in Collapse Newz lately.  I expected Sea Level Rise to come up a lot higher in the survey than it did, in fact the only thing currently ranked lower is the threat of Terrorism, which if you polled the general public and not Kollapsniks would liekly come up much higher on the list.

I also was a little surprised that in fact most Kollapniks do grasp that the biggest near term problem we face is only tangentially related to the climate issues, it's the monetary system.  You can't fix any of the other problems (if they are even "fixable" in any sense) if you can't fix the monetary system.  It's the glue that holds everything else together in this type of civilization.

Here are current Stats from the Survey:

survey-says

TAKE THE SURVEY HERE

(survey results updated 8/2/2015)

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Responses Weighted Average
Monetary System Collapse 24
(33.8%)
11
(15.49%)
8
(11.27%)
6
(8.45%)
4
(5.63%)
3
(4.23%)
5
(7.04%)
1
(1.41%)
71 3.72 / 12
Food Production 10
(14.08%)
9
(12.68%)
9
(12.68%)
15
(21.13%)
8
(11.27%)
10
(14.08%)
2
(2.82%)
4
(5.63%)
71 4.25 / 12
Geopolitical Conflict/War 3
(4.23%)
8
(11.27%)
13
(18.31%)
11
(15.49%)
8
(11.27%)
9
(12.68%)
6
(8.45%)
4
(5.63%)
71 5.06 / 12
Drought 4
(5.63%)
5
(7.04%)
8
(11.27%)
11
(15.49%)
11
(15.49%)
5
(7.04%)
16
(22.54%)
3
(4.23%)
71 5.39 / 12
Human Population Overshoot 9
(12.68%)
5
(7.04%)
8
(11.27%)
3
(4.23%)
11
(15.49%)
5
(7.04%)
8
(11.27%)
3
(4.23%)
71 5.75 / 12
Fossil Fuel Energy Depletion 5
(7.04%)
12
(16.9%)
6
(8.45%)
4
(5.63%)
2
(2.82%)
11
(15.49%)
6
(8.45%)
10
(14.08%)
71 5.82 / 12
Loss of Liberty/Police State 5
(7.04%)
5
(7.04%)
5
(7.04%)
6
(8.45%)
2
(2.82%)
10
(14.08%)
7
(9.86%)
9
(12.68%)
71 6.49 / 12
Atmospheric Carbon Content 9
(12.68%)
6
(8.45%)
2
(2.82%)
6
(8.45%)
4
(5.63%)
5
(7.04%)
3
(4.23%)
9
(12.68%)
71 6.65 / 12
Population Migrations/Refugees 1
(1.41%)
4
(5.63%)
2
(2.82%)
5
(7.04%)
7
(9.86%)
5
(7.04%)
8
(11.27%)
10
(14.08%)
71 7.55 / 12
Nuclear Power Plants/Spent Fuel 1
(1.41%)
4
(5.63%)
5
(7.04%)
4
(5.63%)
7
(9.86%)
3
(4.23%)
6
(8.45%)
2
(2.82%)
71 7.94 / 12
Sea Level Rise 0
(0%)
2
(2.82%)
5
(7.04%)
0
(0%)
4
(5.63%)
5
(7.04%)
3
(4.23%)
14
(19.72%)
71 8.52 / 12
Terrorism 0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
0
(0%)
3
(4.23%)
0
(0%)
1
(1.41%)
2
(2.82%)
71 10.86 / 12

Oveerall, the Climate problems of Sea Level Rise and Atmospheric Carbon Content tend to be rated lower by Kollapsnkiks than things like Monetary System Collapse and Nuclear War.  For fairly obvious reasons here, the latter two are more likely to wreak havoc with the lives of people in the nearer term than the latter two are.  They are of course related phenomena, but it doesn't make much sense to be worrying about Sea Level Rise if you think a Thermonuclear Bomb will be dropped on your head before the Ocean rolls into you neighborhood.

It may occur that Homo Saps and a good percentage of the currently extant life forms on the planet will go Extinct in relatively short order.  For most people though, they have more pressing problems to worry about, like where they will get money to buy their next meal or pay their rent?  Will there be Water coming out of the tap tomorrow or not?  I suspect people in Sao Paolo worry about this a good deal more than they worry about when the Sea Level will rise enough and Copacabana Beach has to be evacuated and all the Brasileiros have to move inland to Sao Paolo, which sadly of course no longer exists because 30 years earlier all the Paolistas moved to Rio!  lol.

At this point, how much Carbon is geting jacked into the atmosphere is a moot point.  The planet is clearly going to significanlty change in overall climate.  Now the thing to do is to pioritize the problems and figure out how to negotiat this clusterfuck, for as long as you can.

RE

The Human Extinction Survey: The Collapse Pundits Email Stream

Off the keyboards of RE & other Collapse PunditsTM

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on May 31, 2015

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extinction2

Discuss this article at the Kitchen Sink inside the Diner

extinction-buttonOne of the more interesting developments that arose as a result of The Human Extinction SurveyTM was an email stream between numerous bloggers who concern themselves with Collapse issues.  Besides myself, this included Ugo Bardi (Resource Crisis), Albert Bates (Peak Surfer, The Farm), Dmitry Orlov (Club Orlov), George Mobus (Question Everything), Steve Ludlum (Economic Undertow), Thomas Lewis (Daily Impact), Jason Heppenstall (22 Billion Energy Slaves) and Lucid Dreams (Epiphany Now).  These are just the bloggers that actively participated in the conversation, there were numerous on the list who were recipients of these emails as well, including Gail Tverberg (Our Finite World), Guy McPherson (Nature Bats Last) and many others.

I asked permission to make these emails Public, and with the exception of Dmitry Orlov, the participants in the conversation are OK with this (at least nobody else told me NOT to publish their emails), so in this latest Sunday Brunch Installment of The Human Extinction SurveyTM series, I am going to begin the process of publishing most of the email stream that came out of this exercise in Collapse Analysis.  However, there is so much material in there that publishing it all in one Blog is simply overkill, nobody would read through it all in one sitting.  So for today, just the first dozen or so responses.

Following the email stream are responses to Q3 in the survey by the respondents.  The survey itself is closed for the time being, since it appears to be making the blog unstable, we crashed the Diner Blog twice this week.  We're still working on figuring out where the exact problem is and how to correct it.

Even without another iteration of the survey and even though I am only publishing a small portion of the email stream, this is going to be one INCREDIBLY long Blog article nonetheless.  LOL.  Hope you have plenty to eat for Sunday Brunch while you read.

Here we go, from the very beginning…

Off the keyboard of RE:

Today I published THE HUMAN EXTINCTION SURVEY.
 
This survey is designed to gather opinion and numerical data on belief about the possibility of Human Extinction in the Near Term.
 
I am inviting all people who write on or contemplate this topic to participate in the survey.  I will be publishing all the results as they come in, in bunches.
 
For submissions by known Authors on this list, prior to publication I will vet the information with you to make sure it came from you and is not falsely attributed to you by a troll.  Nothing you write into the submissions area will go up automatically without prior verification and editing and your final approval.
 
You may participate in the Survey either Anonymously or Publicly with your Name/Internet Handle, however I hope you will choose to identify yourself as this will increase the validity of the survey.
 
This is THE most important question of our time.  I hope you will assist me in getting this information out to the world at large.
 
If you run a Blog or Website, I also encourage you to tell your readers about the poll, to gather still more data.
 
Thanks to all of you in your work in developing an understanding of Collapse, regardless of what your opinion is on this topic.
 
RE
Admin

DoomsteadDiner.net

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi:

Well, a short term human exinction is obviously possible. Unfortunately, it is not a measurable parameter; although we might extrapolate the population curve once it starts crashing down. But extrapolation is always very uncertain – so, it is an unsolvable problem

 

There is another way of looking at it, that is consider that human may or may not go extinct, but may become irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. For the "singularity" crowd, that's where we are going; it is trascendence, not extinction. For the followers of Richard Duncan it is the return to hunting and gathering. Either way, it is pretty much a possibility.

 

Finally, there is another possibility not usually considered: humans do not go extinct, but evolve into something else. The recent result of genomic research has opened up a Pandora's box of things that happened to humans during the past few millennia. They did evolve, oh, yes! They did. The idea that we are still the same guys who hunted wooly mammoths during the ice age badly needs an update. We are similar to them, but not the same; not at all.

 

So, if we can survive for a few millennia, we are going to change into something more adatpted to the world of the future, whatever it will be. And I think the key element of the human future is "eusociality." That is, collaboration, not competition – the human hive, in short. It wll be an interesting future, even though much different than it used to be. No flying cars, no robot butler bringing you the margaritas on the edge of the pool. Nothing like that. I, for one, welcome our new hive masters.  

 

UB

Off the keyboard of George Mobus:

I just posted my latest blog. It's titled Civilization Collapse 3.0 and is basically a reminder that things are coming to a head soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am in the camp that Ugo mentioned. Humans will eventually go extinct outright, meaning that the whole genus Homo will too. Or the current species will evolve into a new one, hopefully Homo eusapiens! I agree with Ugo that the key will turn out to be eusociality. The pattern of cooperation trumping competition is an evolutionarily old one – the emergence of collectives that are more successful than individuals goes back to the auto-organization of complex organic molecules to form primitive cells. See: The Major Transitions in Evolution by John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The rise in levels of organization and hierarchical complexity is a recurring theme in evolution. No reason it shouldn't apply to hominid evolution as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

George

Off the keyboard of Jason Heppenstall:

Obviously, nobody has a crystal ball, so what we have are only tentative feelings, best guesses.

 
For what it's worth I don't think that humans will go extinct anytime soon. Barring  some cataclysmic turn of events that would make all vertebrate life impossible (such as a lack of oxygen) I would place my bets on pockets of humans hanging on around the globe in various ecological niches. We are a tough and adaptive species, and once the pressure valves of overpopulation and resource over-exploitation have been released then it will free up a lot of natural capital for the 'survivors'.
 
That said, it may FEEL like we have gone extinct, by today's standards of modern communications. Certainly the genus of (HT to Mike Ruppert) Petroleum Man will go extinct, right alongside with Gadget Man and a few others. Eventually, of course, we'll all go – probably due to a super volcano or something similar. Near term, though? I doubt it.

Off the keyboard of George Mobus:

Jason,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best to not mix biology with sociology when talking about evolutionary bottlenecks. Petroleum Man, whatever that may be, is not a real species. Homo sapiens is bound to go extinct in the biological (Darwinian) sense because all biological species do eventually. It may be that they go extinct by evolving into a new species, preserving the basic plan of the genus Homo. But that still counts as extinct. Regardless of total genus extinction or just the species, the selection pressures resulting from huge declines in net free energy will operate to cull the herd as it were.

 

 

 

 

 

 

No crystal ball is needed. Just a measure of free energy per capita and its decline tells the story well enough. You don't have to feel anything one way or the other. All you have to do is recognize physical reality when it comes to the per capita requirements for free energy to survive. It is science, not guessing.

Off the keyboard of Jason Heppenstall:

That's true, George. The question we are being asked though is if all humans everywhere will go extinct in short order. What with all the bottlenecks and declining per capita energy availability it's inevitable that a large proportion, if not most, of our number will be heading off the cliff, and leading them will be so-called petroleum man (shouting "Forwards!" as he plunges off the edge).

 
I think timescales are too short for any meaningful evolution to take place (e.g. for a genus of humans to evolve who can live off eating plastic), although in the long run, if we make it through the bottleneck,  I'm sure 'we' will evolve into something unrecognisable to what we are today. So, I remain skeptical that homo sapiens will die off in the next 30 years or whatever constitutes 'near-term', but open to the possibility that we might.

Off the keyboard of RE:

Interesting email conversation you gents are having on this topic, but it doesn't get recorded in the Survey.
 
Astounding number of people have dropped in to take it on the first day, now past 130 respondents.
 
Hope you folks are among them.
 

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi:

I marked 100 years because I had to mark something. But the answer is none of the above. If the sapiens survive for another century (not granted at all), then they have the possibility to stick around for several hundred thousand years – perhaps a few million. In this period, they will probably speciate and create several new, different hominid species. They won't be "sapiens" any moe (but they never were, anyway).

U.

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi:

Evolution is well known to be a misnomer. The correct term is "adaptation". During the Holocene years, the Sapiens quite some of their cranial capacity in comparison to the earlier forms. From wikipedia: "The cranial capacity has decreased from around 1,550 cm3 to around 1,440 cm3 in males while the female cranial capacity has shrunk from around 1,500 cm3 to around 1,240 cm3.[7]

 

This you wouldn't call "evolution", but it was a necessary adaptation to a new situation. I can imagine that our hunter/gatherer ancestors needed to be smart and creative. The peasants of neolithic times had to develop different skills and different capabilities: they didn't need to be so smart and creative; they had, rather, to be stubborn and dependable. Being too smart was a negative feature (it is still so, today).

 

So, the future will bring more adaptation. If we go back to hunting and gathering (I figure that's what Dmitry means with "going feral") our cranial capacity may increase again. If we maintain an agricultural civilization, instead, we'll move along the lines started during the Neolithic. More and more adaptation to social specialization and quite possibly more reduction in cranial capacity. The hive will think for individuals, not the reverse!

 

The end result could well be a civilization which is simple (stone age) in technological terms, but much more complex than ours in social terms ("ultrasocial" or "eusocial"). We may well see some humans going hunter/gatherers in parallel; but the two kinds might survive together since the hive might not have the kind of technological weapons able to exterminate the independent hunters. The two might "speciate" and become mutually infertile; just like Chimps and humans are today, even though they descend from the same ancestors. We may think of a relationship not unlike that of bees and hornets; bees are social creatures organized in hives, the second are independent hunters that sometimes prey on bees. Sometimes bees kill hornets and sometimes it is the reverse. It is co-evolution.

 

Lots of fun these thoughts. I would love to be here in a million years from now and see what the hell has happened to humans. Is there any place where you can sign for this reincarnation thing?

 

U

 

(preparing a post on this matter, of course!)

Off the keyboard of Albert Bates:

Ciao Ugo –
 
If you are preparing a post on this you might have a look at my post 2 weeks back on the subject of brain mass. (http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2015/05/language-and-fire.html) While I also used the shorthand of decreasing brain mass equating with loss of intelllect, I am not wedded to that concept and included some illustrations of the brain size of elephants and numerous varietals of dolphins and whales to cast some doubt on the correlation. Having had some eye contact with elephants and whales, I know them to be intelligent but am not convinced they are _more_ intelligent. There in Firenze you doubtless run across any number of pocket toy poodles and chihuahuas whose cortex is the size of an almond but are exceedingly intelligent and have complex emotions. They also eye-vibe.
 
My own theory runs to the electric field side of things. Our brains have cloud intelligence, most of which is local and holographic but some portion is remote and exhibits quantum effects. How much biological substrate is necessary to create that kind of neuroelectrical field? The chihuahua may be representative, the elephant may not. (http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2012/02/listening-to-your-hair.html)
 
Thinking of the brain cybernetically leads to utopian fantasy. The problem with digitizing our memories and porting ourselves into an AI format to circumvent death (and reduce the footprint of all the wetware) is that most philanthropists working towards such ends (Kurzweil, Gates) see transhumanism arising from machine tech and Moores Law. But did you ever get a blue screen? If that is what was left of your memories, ouch.
 
Better and more enduring cloud computing might be a biological evolution, provided enough time. Looking around, tho, I think the luxury of time is not something we have.
 
humbly,
 
Albert

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi:

Wow…. that's what I call an interesting discussion! Must thank RE for having started it. Really, RE, you are spectacular!!!

 

Apart from this, yes, Albert, I understand your point about elephants and Chihahua. Yes, we have them in Firenze (I mean, more chihuahuas than elephants, at least for what I can see in public parks on Sunday afternoons). It is known that brain size correlates with intelligence, but weakly. So, the fact that Neandertals had bigger brains than us doesn't mean that they were brighter (although they might well have been)

 

The specific point I was making in my ramblings on this question is that it makes sense to me that the small shrinkage of the human brain may be correlated to a certain degree of loss of what we call "intelligence" at the INDIVIDUAL level. In other words, social intelligence may well replace individual intelligence at an overall profit for the survival of the species.

 

It is something that struck me in "Guns, Germs, and Steel" by Jared Diamond. He noted how "primitive" people are often individually smarter than Westerners, and yet westerners normally have the upper hand. It is an observation that I also made with my Roma (gypsy) friends. Individually, they are extremely smart, but they are at the lowest rung of society's ladder. I think it is the same effect: their social intelligence is less developed than ours; it is the opposite for their individual intelligence.

 

And, of course, there is the utopian idea of the "singularity". Yeah, yeah…. sure….

 

Very humbly,

 

Ugo

That I think is a good spot to end the Collapse PunditTM Email Stream for this article.  Plenty more to come on this however.

Prior to getting into the results of the main Human Extinction Survey, I'll publish the results from the Joke Survey of Human Extinction Surveys 😀 I did after Dmitry published HIS Human Extinction Survey, after calling the one I dropped on a "Waste of Time" in the email stream.  Not too many respondents for this one as to be expected (most people should have got that I was doing a parody joke), and of those who did respond, they are mostly favorable to the Diner Survey since it's probably Diner readers who responded to it rather than Club Orlov readers.

Which Human Extinction Survey is more informative? You may explain your reasons for your choice on Human Extinction Surveys here: Who is more Ethical? You may explain your Blogging Ethics choice here
Doomstead Diner Survey i think you are the first one to survey NTHE and the internet really never even have any discussion about this, just only because this is a deppresing topic, people are addicted to hope and good news, and the motto always "everything going to be alright". Both are Ethical don't sell out, always tell the truth and your opinion.
Doomstead Diner Survey   Bloggers who provide Links to other Blogs when they use their material  
Doomstead Diner Survey Who the fuck is comfortable with destroying the biosphere? Most folks….including Koch Bros. Bloggers who provide Links to other Blogs when they use their material But do you REALLY need the validation of asking these questions? EITHER of you? Public opinions on extinction are irrelevant, it will happen, or it won't.
Doomstead Diner Survey   Bloggers who provide Links to other Blogs when they use their material  
Both are a waste of time   Bloggers who provide Links to other Blogs when they use their material  
Both are informative Informative is probably not the right word. Thought-provoking and discussion-starting are better descriptors. Unfortunately, the whole endeavor DOES have a preaching to the choir vibe to it. Splitting hairs on how many will survive–if any–glosses over just how MANY will not (and that's only considering self-absorbed humans, which tragically ignores the great number of other SPECIES that sink with us.) Neither are Ethical Again, not the right word. Linking is more of a courtesy when individuals are pointing out their takes on other's materials. I think it's understood at this point that it's the receiver's responsibility to review source material under discussion, not the sender's. The sender produces a message–however derivative it may ultimately be, and the receiver needs to determine to their own satisfaction the amount of information in the signal. That generally means reviewing the source material (which, today, is generally resolved by a quick google.) Attribution isn't only about giving "credit"; it's most importantly about message veracity (trust).
Doomstead Diner Survey   Bloggers who provide Links to other Blogs when they use their material  
Doomstead Diner Survey   Bloggers who do NOT link to other Blogs when they use their material  

05-24-human-extinction

survey-saysNow let's get onto the KollapsnikTM responses to Q3 on the Survey.  First the Tally of all 354 Total Respondents by Proximal Cause for Extinction:

Alien Invasion:   2

Anthropogenic Climate Change:   193

Asteroid Impact:   7

Geological Climate Change:   28

Global Thermonuclear War:   48

Sun Going Red Giant:   48

Supervolcanic Eruption:   9

As you can see, the VAST plurality of Doomers who consider the Human Extinction question believe it will come about as a result of Anthropogenic Climate Change.  This should be no surprise also, because many of the respondents come from the Nature Bats Last blog, where I dropped a Plug Article for the survey.  That is the hypothesis of Guy McPherson, and readers of that blog are generally in agreement with Guy on this hypothesis.

It would be very interesting if you could get a sampling of how the general public would respond to this question, but alas I doubt that will ever happen 🙁 since only Doomers read Doom Blogs.  I'd also love to see the distribution of responses from CONgress Critters and other Pols as well.  Also never gonna happen.  Still, it is interesting to see how the Doomers themselves distribute out.

Finally, the 125 Respondents who provided a text explanation, sorted by the Proximal Cause they think most likely:

The Proximal Cause of Human Extinction will be: You can explain your choice of Proximal Cause here (optional)
Alien Invasion Humans will go extinct when we evolve into metal bodies and explore the universe.
Alien Invasion The preclusions to invasion have been prophesized for years, simultaneously unbeknownst to most the very seals and doomsday machinations were being constructed behind iron curtains and woolen eyes.
 
Anthropogenic Climate Change Civilization based on infinite growth on a planet with finite carrying capacity is unsustainable. Civilization the way it is practiced is driving the Earth into a new equalibrium point as positive feedbacks have been set into motion by carbon forcing. Even with questionably motivated carbon reduction schemes, if we were to sink (capture) more carbon than released, the point of no return was reached 40 years ago; there is a 40 year lag from when CO2 is released until its effect is felt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate-Change-The-40-Year-Delay-Between-Cause-and-Effect.html

Anthropogenic Climate Change – Of course, global nuclear war could take us humans + most other life down a bit faster if initiated by the 'real owners' as George Carlin calls them, or a large asteroid impact, but civilized human hubris takes the lead I believe. Again, habitat loss, water loss, ocean acidification, extreme heat + cold, etc. – Actually, nuclear war would be Anthropogenic, wouldn't it?
Anthropogenic Climate Change ACC may be not direct cause, but for sure it is main reason behind…
Anthropogenic Climate Change ACC may very well lead to Mutually Assured Destruction scenarios. On the other hand, the Ring of Fire has been very, very active as of late.
Anthropogenic Climate Change alien invasion? is this survey for real? I'm done
Anthropogenic Climate Change And, of course, only a trickle of useable fossil fuels by 2100.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Answers one and three although I can only select one. Answer one would be the surefire trigger for answer three…
Anthropogenic Climate Change Anthropogenic becomes natural runaway.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Anthropogenic Climate Change (with breakdown of necessary ecosystems, because climate change (incl ocean acidity etc) happens too fast) as ultimate cause, but proximate causes will of course be many: wars, pandemics etc. But still: a slow demise, is my guess.
Anthropogenic Climate Change As I said before, climate change is the most serious threat. Whether it's anthropogenic or not is a moot point in my opinion, even though I believe it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But there are four horsemen of our current apocalypse:

Climate Change

War, with Global Thermonuclear War being the worst case

Currency/Economic Collapse

Decline in available energy

Anthropogenic Climate Change But I don't think extinction is in the cards – drastically reduced numbers of humans (deaths) yes, but that wasn't a choice given.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Civilization is a heat engine.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Climate change and peak oil will result in nuclear reactor meltdowns and possibly nuclear war.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Climate change is already happening, the arctic is warming much faster than the lower latitudes, the jet stream has slowed & is meandering bringing more heat to the arctic that's destabilizing methane which is another very potent greenhouse gas.
The arctic may have already heated enough to start a positive feedback between heating & methane destabilization leading to more heating.
When civilization collapses, 420+ nuclear reactors will no longer be maintained, their cooling pumps will run out of fuel, their cores will over heat then melt through their containment vessel releasing radioactive elements into the environment in huge amounts, enough to sterilize the planet if they all fail & they probably will.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overpopulation by itself could cause our civilization to collapse as demand outstrips supply, climate change could do us in or nuclear powered resource wars could finish us off.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Combination of climate change, resources, political, worsening confluence of things.
Anthropogenic Climate Change connect the dots…and the methane releases are just ramping up
Anthropogenic Climate Change Contamination from abandoned civilian nuclear power installations will also play a role.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Could have gone with Geological but the trigger for that was Anthropological. The others are wild cards or black swans.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Geological Climate Change would probably take 100,000 years to happen.
Global Thermonuclear War is just too stupid even for humans.
Asteroid Impact would be the easy way out, but no such luck is likely.
The other three possibilities belong in comic books.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Guy says so…
Anthropogenic Climate Change I agree with the science supported by this group.
Anthropogenic Climate Change I read somewhere that C02 emissions trap heat like a greenhouse. We're emitting lots of C02.
Anthropogenic Climate Change I really don't think we will go extinct.
Anthropogenic Climate Change If there is an extinction event (of humans) it will be initiated by anthropogenic climate forcing that will morph into geological climate change as the earth tries to re-balance herself from the mess humans have made. We are the fuse, earth is the TNT.
Unintentional nuclear war triggered by geopolitical misunderstandings will render localized parts of the planet uninhabitable but life will go on for a short while with pollution induced cancer being the normal way to die early on (radiation and other toxic waste thrown into the atmosphere via nuclear detonations). The climate change forced migrations will mean that people move away from the nuclear destruction to less polluted areas but get high doses of poisons on there way to said destinations. Swathes of land will be dead zones from fallout. Any cooling from "nuclear winter" will be rapidly offset by exponential changes in climate forcing derived from methane already spewing out from the arctic and sub-sea clathrate explosions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its gonna suck if it happens.

Anthropogenic Climate Change If we can believe the data, it seems that we have enough carbon in the system (due to the effects of climate hysteresis and climate inertia) to carry us well over World Banks 4oC. IPCC projections have already been woefully optimistic, for example: we will probably lose all Arctic Summer Ice before 2020, and this was not projected to pass in earlier assesments until well after 2100.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How many other inaccuracies do we not know about.

All live depends on the hydrological cycles, so if that becomes screwed up (a'la Sao Paolo) worldwide, we will lose much plant life, and animals cannot survive without plants.

Phytoplankton also seems to be at a major downturn (jeremy Jackson), and it and plants are the source of Oxygen. Oxygen is the second most electronegative element on the periodic chart, so if the Oxygen cycle is upset by climate change, that will start its slow recession from our atmosphere as it reacts with other cations to form carbonates, sulfates, silicates, etc. Of course, this would be a much longer effect.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in short term, its a toss up between anthro climate change and nuclear war. i'd put climate change first because nuclear war is avoidable (in theory lol).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

longer term, dangers are probably a super-volcano or an ice age, both which seem to happen every 60,000 years or so. followed by a big asteroid, which is more likely to happen every few million, to hundreds of million years, depending on size.

quite tempted by an alien invasion scenario (aren't we all), but i thats just a cop out to avoid taking responsibility for the very likely first two.

Anthropogenic Climate Change It is already happening, and accelerating because of methane releases in the arctic
Anthropogenic Climate Change It will be the trigger to most everything else.
Anthropogenic Climate Change It will either be anthropogenic climate change or in case a few thousand people manage to survive that, those will then die by something like an asteroid impact, supervolcano or severe climate disruption later on.
Anthropogenic Climate Change It's a toss up between Anthropogenic Climate Change or Global Thermonuclear War. I think that Anthropogenic Climate Change will stress the already unstable World Political Mess and result in a Thermonuclear War. Chicken and egg stuff.
Anthropogenic Climate Change It's what we do.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Look out the window. Seems obvious and self evident.
Anthropogenic Climate Change NDE
Anthropogenic Climate Change No food no people
Anthropogenic Climate Change No food.
Anthropogenic Climate Change None of the above. The nasty Four Horsemen will do it, but they are caused by general resource depletion and the human reactions to it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And what about plastic? Humans have made mountains of the nasty stuff – kills animals by clogging up their digestive tracts, poisonous when burned, has hormonal effects. I wish I was clever enough to dream up some scenario where we hoist on our own plastic pitard like those poor creatures that get strangled by the plastic rings used to hold together six packs of beer and soda cans.Rough justice much deserved.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Not just climate change but peak oil…
Anthropogenic Climate Change or Global Thermonuclear War as a result of conflicts due to Anthropogenic Climate Change
Anthropogenic Climate Change Our habitat cannot keep up with the pace that we're warming the planet. Food systems will start to collapse, probably in the next ten to fifteen years. Many such systems are already stressed. So, it looks like most of us–if we make it, are going to starve to death.. or end up in our neighbors stew pot.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Plus Fukushima
Anthropogenic Climate Change plus massive die-off from nuclear power plant melt-downs and other environmental factors.
Anthropogenic Climate Change plus nuclear plant meltdowns.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Proximal cause for rapid depopulation.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Runaway climate change and global economic collapse
Anthropogenic Climate Change Scientific evidence.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Seems obvious.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Self-evident self-immolation through inertia, sadly.
Anthropogenic Climate Change The habitat just becomes too hostile.
Anthropogenic Climate Change The main cause of death for the vast majority of humans will be the collapse of industrial civilization, food production, warfare, and attendant violence. But the ultimate cause will be anthropogenic climate change which will make the planet uninhabitable for humans.
Anthropogenic Climate Change The science is as settled as it can be. It is only denial which seems to be getting stronger.
A fact is still a fact no matter how many people deny it, or how unpalatable it is..
Anthropogenic Climate Change The war won't be nuclear, but it will be global and caused by water shortages and too high prices with too low wages.
Anthropogenic Climate Change too many bodies, not enough food, not enough toilets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You may peg this to ACC should you wish, but truthfully ACC is a symptom of the core disease. It isn't the root cause. ACC is happening because there are just too many busy little bipeds out there.

Anthropogenic Climate Change We are already in the process of this extinction so it's a given. The others are unknowns with most being highly improbable, but it definitely won't be the last two.
Anthropogenic Climate Change We have sown the wind and will now reap the whirl wind. The goldilocks conditions under which we flourished will be gone.
Anthropogenic Climate Change We're a resiliant species, but we're not well adapted to the PETM-like world of the next 100,000 years. One of our descendant species will outcompete us, but will likely never achieve our industrialized peak, as we'll have used all the accessible fossil energy.
Anthropogenic Climate Change We've made major changes to the Earth's atmosphere.
Anthropogenic Climate Change What we can only have one? I change my answer. If I must pick only one I pick:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The real reason!!!

OVERPOPULATION

& human stupidity.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Whether climate change, war, or other foolishness, it will be man made, and self-inflicted.
Anthropogenic Climate Change You forgot "the rapture". If war beats habitat destruction due to climate to the punch, it will have had climate change induced stress as it's motivator.
Anthropogenic Climate Change You left off one: unmaintained nuke plants going Fukushima.. I think that has a greater possibility of occurring than global thermonuclear war. GTW has a less than 100% chance of occurring, while nuke facility meltdowns have a 100% chance of occurring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have a hard time predicting which will come first, though.. the worldwide nuke failures or the world-wide famine. Either one would exacerbate the other, of course.

Anthropogenic Climate Change You should be able have more than one answer. It won't just be one thing but a cacophony of events.
Asteroid Impact A large scale impactor would be enough to extinguish macrofauna, and us at our current stage of technology.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supervolcanism is insufficient and global nuclear war nevermind climate change. Solar flux increase (and terminal climate change) would do, but we'd go extinct considerably prior to that due to natural or unnatural reasons.

Asteroid Impact It really doesn't matter and this is a false choice menu. What about toxic oceans no longer producing oxygen?
Asteroid Impact Most likely some large scale planetary disruption like asteroid impact or super volcano will finally dislodge all higher homo genus from the earth.
Asteroid Impact other possibilities not provided as a choice : human caused changes to biochemistry of our environment. Viruses, nanotech, germ warfare etc.
Geological Climate Change Again, paleontological data would seem to imply that the most common cause of extinction events is climate change. But this can be influenced, or perhaps even caused, by a variety of different things; volcanic activity, plate tectonics, asteroid impact, etc.
Geological Climate Change I don't like any of these answers. Disease isn't there. Food supply disaster isn't there. Other resource depletion isn't there. So I just picked the best of the multiple-choice lot.
Geological Climate Change If a human extinction were to occur it would probably come either by the release of methane or the acidification in the world oceans causing the death of phytoplankton. Both these events were largely influenced by the amount of waste and energy humans have been producing.
Geological Climate Change Methane release, hydrogen sulfide release from oceans, temperatures increased to extent that food can not be grown, violence between humans that do manage to "survive"
Geological Climate Change Most of the charts & graphs are now in hyper parabolic ascent stage.
CO2 CH4 etc.
Geological Climate Change none of the above, but any one will be trouble without causing mass extinction. We will provide mass extinction toold all by ourselves. Our wasteful extravagance will impoverish the planet that few will survive long term.
Geological Climate Change Not sure…
Geological Climate Change While I think Homo Saps are exacerbating the problems of Climate Change, I think they are mainly Geotectonic in nature. We also may engage in Global Thermonuclear War, but the reason for getting into such a conflagration is the conflict that results as the food sources run thin and the economic system Collapses.
Global Thermonuclear War Chose nuke war because of lunatics in Washington, but it seems likely (and maybe should have been included as a choice) that a collection of these will do the deed.
Global Thermonuclear War Climate change brings frequent droughts, floods, and storms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severely affect supply of food, water, infrastructure of civilization across the globe.

Bonus diseases to affected regions

Struggle for basic resources among nations

Conflict ensued, ceasefire ignored

Nuclear Launch Detected
Nuclear Launch Detected
Nuclear Missile Ready
Nuclear Launch Detected
Nuclear Launch Detected

Global Thermonuclear War Does not need to be global war — reactors and weapons will produce more than enough radiation to cull all population, especially humans.
Global Thermonuclear War Greed will make us fight.
Global Thermonuclear War Human stupidity?
Global Thermonuclear War Humans have considered themselves above nature for a long time now.
I don't see Humans allowing Nature to do themselves in.
We would rather nuke ourselves off the planet than go extinct by 'natural' means.
So I would say the "Planet of the Apes" was correct, we will do it to ourselves, somehow.
Global Thermonuclear War I lived with nuclear war all my life. I was born in 1954. With so many weapons on a hair trigger alert there's no way that the greatest mistake will happen. So it goes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cheers Anthony

Global Thermonuclear War If humans do not get off the earth they will find a way to kill themselves. It will be technological most likely bio.
Global Thermonuclear War If not nuclear war it will be nuclear pollution from lack of maintenance and/or decommissioning all of the power (1) nuclear power plants, (2) nuclear aircraft carriers, (3) nuclear icebreakers, (4) nuclear submarines and (5) other, such as experimental nuclear systems.
Global Thermonuclear War If we as a species survive a die off (due to current overpopulation) and recover a global society, I think our most likely avenue of extinction would be war with each other.
Global Thermonuclear War It's something we know how to do.
Global Thermonuclear War Limited nuclear war is very specifically planned in great detail, however, RFDI (H+) chips will be much larger de-pop factor due to viral event. Control parameter = H+ for safety & medical security. 20 major corp contractors have been working on on H+ for decades. Already in use at Disney. 3 million implants now being tested in 30 nations. NIH study groups.
Global Thermonuclear War Not 100% Sure
Global Thermonuclear War Nuclear war is a shoo-in. Nations are even now casually bandying about threats of nuclear strike where just a decade or so ago this would have been unthinkable. The situation can turn on a sixpence.
Global Thermonuclear War Probably, first event US gets destroyed by Russia, China & other countries. Then other countries attack each other like China & Russia go at each other. Maybe India & Pakistan go after each other with nukes, etc.
Global Thermonuclear War QU7TRC <a href="http://xpucrrohwwqj.com/">xpucrrohwwqj</a>, [url=http://lrpracxeqlms.com/]lrpracxeqlms[/url], [link=http://rihljphswelz.com/]rihljphswelz[/link], http://vkbhkcvrmjzn.com/
Global Thermonuclear War Republicans® + Bonesman Kerry® + [Bush3® or Clinton2®] = war with Russia.
Global Thermonuclear War The next war is over religion: USA is christian, Europe is muslim. Unlikely that China will be involved in this.
Global Thermonuclear War The others all lead to competition for resources and living space, but in the words of TS Eliot: "I said to my soul, be still, and wait without hope, For hope would be hope for the wrong thing."
Global Thermonuclear War This is a faulty question because there is not 1 cause. Anthropogenic climate change is going to kill off a great percentage of the planet in the next 50 years, but the real reason we'll be finished off with no hope of return is nuclear. Whether wars or simply the inability to maintain cooling and storage of 424 nuclear plants worldwide plus who knows how many nuclear weapons, the genie will not stay in the bottle sans electricity. What climate chaos doesn't do, radiation will finish off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All the above does not even begin to factor in laboratory diseases and nanotechnological organisms.

Global Thermonuclear War This was just the closest approximation. Most will die because of the four horsemen: war, hunger, pestilence and, obviously, death.
Sun Going Red Giant Again humans are resourceful. Some will cope with whatever happens as long as the Earth has an atmosphere.
Sun Going Red Giant Again, I see a dramatic reduction in human numbers – but do not foresee extinction until there is a cataclysmic cosmic event.
Sun Going Red Giant Humans are stubborn but also adaptable. It's going to be ugly, but our species will survive.
Sun Going Red Giant Humans are stubborn but also adaptable. It's going to be ugly, but our species will survive.
Sun Going Red Giant Humans have evolved during a period of climate change and it hasn't slowed us down in the least, geologic climate change has a chance because it doesn't depend on idiot humans but only the frequency of geologic events, war is just the stupid mans excuse for doom because they don't understand the others, asteroids are only a small part of the cosmic reasons for end of humans, super volcanic is a geologic climate change argument primarily, and alien invasions are only for the really stupid doomers. That leaves the physics of the sun being the most reasonable, and certain.
Sun Going Red Giant I dont believe we will go extinct although most people will not survive so not until the sun size dictates.
Sun Going Red Giant I really have no idea.
Sun Going Red Giant Oh – it's hard to predict that one! Of course we can have asteroids or nuclear war… perhaps I still have too much hopium inside… in fact hoping that civilization collapses to where we can't launch the buggers anymore, and the nuclear power plants will only deaden the areas they are in…
Sun Going Red Giant The sun will go Red Giant eventually, and that is game over for all life on Earth. We're not going to the stars to live…at least not with our temporal bodies.
Sun Going Red Giant Unavoidable
Sun Going Red Giant We know the red giant outcome is a certainty; all of the other options are probabilities
Supervolcanic Eruption H bombs won't kill more than a couple billion. Sun at 500my is not red giant, but will remove liquid water. Disease could kill 30 – 90% any time
Supervolcanic Eruption H bombs won't kill more than a couple billion. Sun at 500my is not red giant, but will remove liquid water. Disease could kill 30 – 90% any time
Supervolcanic Eruption Human beings will continue to survive after any die-off in this century, so I think the most likely cause of human extinction will be either a random cataclysm or unwillingness to survive.
Supervolcanic Eruption The most likely scenario IMO is humanity emerging from the collapse of industrial civilization in a very primitive state from which it can never recover again due to lack of resources. But that state can persist for quite a long time, which will end either through some geologic catastrophe (most likely a giant eruption) or geological climate change,
Supervolcanic Eruption to be honest i think it is going to be from multiple factors such as a climate change, nuclear war and viruses. i cant see humanity being wiped out by one factor, i think it is in multiplicity where the answer lies.
Supervolcanic Eruption Volcanic eruption is more likely long term, thermonuclear short term. But I figure if it doesn't happen soon we probably won't let it happen. I guess it's possible
 
Impossible to speculate. Humans will certainly survive all of the above.
   
  Cultural implosion, and despair.
  Don't know.
  nobody knows, extinction is possible but not granted at this stage, atmosphere, biosphere, temperature modifications, asteroids, wars, volcanoes, plagues and diseases, all possible, what is granted is the collapse of the current civilization, unless some radical measures are taken
  none of the above peak cheap oil will get us and the accompanying economic collapse
  See above.
  The word "proximal" doesn't make sense in this context. Please explain, without making me read anything.
  The word "proximal" doesn't make sense in this context. Please explain, without making me read anything.
  Why not resource constraints ? (peak oil and other)
Will be the proximal cause for me, Anthropogenic climate change a major second

 

xxxx

Collapse of Industrial Civilization Survey- Early Results

Off the keyboards of the Diner Readers

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on May 13, 2015

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survey-says-2

Discuss this article at the Kitchen Sink inside the Diner

Tell Us How you Categorize Yourself

Cornucopian: You believe current problems are temporary and Homo Saps will eventually go Star Trekking
Doomer Lite: You believe we will have a Greater Depression, but eventually rebound from it
Full Doomer: You believe Homo Saps will undergo a massive Population Knockdown but will not go Extinct in this century
Uber Doomer: You believe Homo Saps will be extinct by the end of this century
 

As you might expect, the Diner Readers have come down OVERWHELMINGLY in support of the idea Industrial Civilization will Collapse/ is Collapsing.  I'm not going to bother sorting for the exact numbers, but it's in the neighborhood of 50:1

Below here though are a few of the descriptive quotes dropped on the Survey Form, in Chronological Order when they came in,

Let's define that. I would say the energy used per capita per annum will decrease by 50% over 20-30 years. Why? It's all about the net energy or lack thereof.
man, the signs are everywhere.
See Thelma and Louise. The "cliff" is behind us. The cause was widespread dirty energy use. Collapse is the biosphere math effect.
Painfully Obvious and Disheartening
South African electricity system is collapsing
Your milage may vary but folks we are running on empty.
Absurdist Delusions Abound
We are in the beginning stages of collapse
Anglo Saxon contemplating Roman British ruins poem // ridden and shod an Arab recently? // The Atomic Age is elemental, brother! The UPPU club meets Hg and Li and what does life do?
with a bang and a whimper.
Accidentally cut myself off – from stagflation and "malaise" briefly almost cured by North Slope and North Sea oil right up to perma-recession hotly denied by all official entities (TPTB).
The numbers are incontrovertible
Obviously
It's the age-old problem of out-growing our resource base.


This First Survey from the Diner is very rudimentary and has a lot of problems that I am well aware of.  This is not an EZ Plugin to work with by any means.  I only installed the thing a few days ago and getting up to speed on it while I can't remember where I put my keys or parked my car is not fucking EZ!  LOL

However, the UPCOMING SURVEY on Human Extinction is a whole lot better in terms of structure and organization.

COMING SUNDAY TO A LAPTOP NEAR YOU!

RE

Diner Survey of Opinions on the Collapse of Industrial Civilization

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on May 9, 2015

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Discuss this Survey at the Kitchen Sink inside the Diner

 

Your Contributions and Opinions will be published after we have collected up enough of them and weeded out the stupid ones. 🙂

I believe Industrial Civilization is Collapsing.

Check the Box if you agree (you may add your reasons in the text box below)


I believe Industrial Civilization is NOT Collapsing.

Check the Box if you agree (you may add your reasons in the text box below)

Collapse Cripple Cart Construction Project

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Published on The Doomstead Diner July 14, 2019

Discuss the article & vids at the Science & Technology Table inside the Diner

 

It's been a bizzy week for both Kollapsniks and Cripples,and I have been overwhelmed with work to do in both areas.  I was working on editing a Collapse Cafe video I did with Jason Heppenstalll of 22 Billion Energy Slaves a couple of weeks ago, then George Mobus of Question Everything and I got together to discuss his new Systems Science book along with questions from the Collapse 2019 Survey early in the week as well.  Then I finalized plans for a Jet Setting, Fossil Fuel Burning trip down to Seattle in the Lower 48, set now for departure on July 18th of this week.  As much as I wanted to edit and publish the discussions with Jason & George though, in this case the approaching DEADLINE for the trip to Seattle took precedence over both.  Those vids will be aired of course, but in all likelihood not until after I return from this latest Globe Trotting Adventure at the End of the Age of Oil.

The main issue here is that I had to get my "Mobiility Device" (aka, "Cripple Cart") up to suff IMHO for travel with me, to provide me with a greater level of independence from Cripple Helpers than I have depended on for the last couple of Adventures I have taken since the catastrophic injury I was unfortunate enough to experience a few years ago.  I have never before taken either of my Cripple Carts along with me for the plane ride for these Adventures, in both the recent cases I rented Cripple Carts for those trips after I got there.  In this case, it was time to bring my own along for the ride, because I am actually using this trip as a Prep Run for an even bigger Adventure I hope to take either in late Summer of Early Fall.  For that Bucket List Adventure I absolutely must have my own Ewz with me for the trip, there is just no other way I can effectively accomplish it.

In any case, long time readers of the Diner who know me know I would NEVER consider a stock Cripple Cart right outta da box from China as "up to snuff" for such a momentous trip on the Bucket List of Adventures I still have planned before I Buy My Ticket to the Great Beyond here as the Collapse of Industrial Civilization begins to accelerate its downward trip to a low per capita energy future.  For such trips I need a really FIRST CLASS ride, which I could either pay through the nose for buying a really expensive one and unnecessarily burning a lot of my stash of cash that way; or I could BUILD IT MYSELF from some cheaper stock parts, cannibalizing a variety of machines to do it.  Cheapskate that I am, I chose Door Number 2, Monte.

Regular Diners also know that unlike many other Collapse Pundits, I am a DOER, not just a TALKER when it comes to Prepping Up for the oncoming (actually, ongoing) Collapse of Industrial Civilization.  I don't just Talk the Talk, I Walk the Walk.  Of course, I am no longer a Big Macho Man who can dig a fence post hole to the center of the earth with a shovel and pick axe (let me rent a Daiwoo Back Hoe and I can do as good a job as any other Heavy Equipment operator out there, though), nor do I have enough money to buy my own Doomstead and raise pigs; and my digs don't even have enough sunlight hitting my tiny back porch to even grow a few herbs back there (I may be able to grow my favorite fungi though, mushrooms).  I do however regularly write on how to eat cheap and well on a limited budget, demonstrating how to do it in the SNAP Card Gourmet and Cooking Zone videos.  I demonstrated food preservationg techniques in my Liver Pate canning videos as well.  I teach myself new skills all the time that I feel will be of help to me or others after SHTF day arrives, such as Candle Making and of course all my experiments with DC Electrics, which this article and video is all about.  I actively work at probably the most IMPORTANT aspect of Prepping for Collapse, DEVELOPING COMMUNITY, both in cyberspace on the net and here at home on the Last Great Frontier IRL.  That is what my Potlach Mobile Food Truck program is all about.

This set of videos on today's experimenting and testing is really about much more than just how to make a VERY COOL Cripple Cart on the cheap to cruise around on as you Jet Set your way around the FSoA and perhaps around the world if I last long enough.  It answers the question definitively about which are better to prep up with, AC line powered electric tools or batt powered electric tools?  Many preppers favor the A/C powered tools because the logic goes that after SHTF day arrives, you're not going to be able to drop in at Lowe's (don't shop Home Depot!)  Well folks, you really don't NEED those proprietary batts, and in coming videos I will show you how to power any tools you have with some very basic tools and systems any prepper should have in his arsenal of preps.  Just as a Teaser, be sure you pack away a good supply of Solder and a Soldering iron in your Bugout Bag! lol.

It also answers some very important questions about the feasibility of using Electric Vehicles for transportation in the post-Collapse world.  Will they be Teslas?  Unlikely. Too fucking EXPENSIVE, too fucking COMPLICATED!  But, simple EVs such as the kind I experiment with can be put together from vey simple parts, many of which will be available in the automobile graveyards of the world once the gas runs out for the ICE powered motors.  Batteries, alternators, wiring, fuses, they are all there in the average junked car recently totaled on the Eisenhower Interstate.  Bicycle frames also available by the truckload at yard sales everywhere.  Electric motors powering everything from Power Tools to Boat Trolling Motors to fans and winches.  You give me $1000 and a trip to a few junkyards, and I'll have you a working vehicle that will do upwards of 20 mph inside a month.,

I hope you enjoy these vids today as much as I enjoyed making them.  Next week, you should see the Cripple Cart on Steroids touring its way around Ted Stevens and Sea-Tac airports and around the Seattle Tacoma neighborhood.  I can wait! 🙂

 

Heading to 3 Bears for Cancerettes

The Return from 3 Bears

How much Cargo Carrying Capacity does a Power Tools Battery powered Cripple Cart have?

Celebrating SUCCESS with Chili Dogs in the Potalch Parking Lot

 

For those of you who missed it, here is a vid done last week working on improvements to the range of my other 2-wheeled Ewz, which I wrote about inside the Diner in a post called "Electra Glide in Black"

 

 

BTW folks, I am not even halfway done with the Mods I have planned for my Globe Trotting Cripple Cart.  You ain't seen nuthin' yet! 🙂

I'll see you down by Fire Lake.  Remember Uncle RE?  He was the one afraid to cut the cake.

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

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