David Korowicz

Civilization and Collapse

youtube-Logo-4gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of David Korowicz

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Momentum Institute on Fenruary  11, 2017

Discuss this article at the Economics Table inside the Diner

 

Podcast: David Korowicz Part 3- On the Cusp of Collapse

Off the Microphones of David Korowicz, RE & Monsta

Aired on the Doomstead Diner on July 27, 2013

logopodcast

Discuss at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

On the Cusp of Collapse

Complexity, Energy, and the Globalised Economy

On the Cusp of Collapse

The systems on which we rely for our financial transactions, food, fuel and livelihoods are so inter-dependent that they are better regarded as facets of a single global system. Maintaining and operating this global system requires a lot of energy and, because the fixed costs of operating it are high, it is only cost-effective if it is run at near full capacity. As a result, if its throughput falls because less energy is available, it does not contract in a gentle, controllable manner. Instead it is subject to catastrophic collapse.

Fragments from a globalised economy

• The eruption of the EyjafjallajÖkull volcano in Iceland led to the shut- down of three BMW production lines in Germany, the cancellation of surgery in Dublin, job losses in Kenya, air passengers stranded worldwide and dire warnings about the effects the dislocations would have on some already strained economies.

• During the fuel depot blockades in the UK in 2000, the supermarkets’ just-in-time supply-chains broke down as shelves emptied and inventories vanished. Anxiety about the consequences rose to such an extent that the Home Secretary, Jack Straw, accused the blockading truckers of “threatening the lives of others and trying to put the whole of our economy and society at risk”.

• The collapse of Lehman Brothers helped precipitate a brief freeze in the financing of world trade as banks became afraid to accept other banks’ letters of credit. [1]

Download the full paper at DavidKorowicz.com

 

Catastrophic Shocks in Complex Socio-Economic Systems—a pandemic perspective

Off the keyboard of David Korowicz
Podcast off the Microphones of David, RE & Monsta

Article Published on FEASTA on July 19, 2013
Podcast aired on the Doomstead Diner on July 20, 2013

logopodcast

Discuss at the Podcast Table inside the Diner


The globalised economy has become more complex (connectivity, interdependence, and speed), and delocalized, with increasing concentration within critical systems. This has made us all more vulnerable to systemic shocks. This paper by David Korowicz provides an overview of the effect of a major pandemic on the operation of complex socio-economic systems using some simple models. It discusses the links between initial pandemic absenteeism and supply-chain contagion, and the evolution and rate of shock propagation. It discusses systemic collapse and the difficulties of re-booting socio-economic systems.

Download the paper

Related posts:

  1. Sustainable currency and the green economy: An Irish perspective
  2. Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse
  3. Comment on Liquidity Networks: local trading systems using a debt-free electronic currency by Bruno Ricardo
  4. Energy & Food Constraints will Collapse Global Economic Recovery
  5. Seeing Systems: a short course on applying systems thinking

Support the Diner

Search the Diner

Surveys & Podcasts

NEW SURVEY

Renewable Energy

VISIT AND FOLLOW US ON DINER SOUNDCLOUD

" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D

Archives

Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BX686_LakeMe_G_20130816175615.jpg

loading

Inside the Diner

Quote from: Eddie on April 24, 2017, 06:53:26 PMI went to a wedding on Friday, the nephew of a good friend, someone who went to school with my kids. After that, the missus and I had dinner and drove out to the lake cottage, arr...

Every time a picture of America’s Coolest Prez Ever gets posted on social media, the internet lights up like a Christmas...

Thanx for you replies Eddie and AZ!! 

The problem with these HMD's (home made deals) is one power failure & your whole afternoon is ruined.A dead cat bounce at best.

2017-04-23 - Legalized marijuana could help pay teachers in South Dakota:http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/03/cou...

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

A recent string of robberies on BART trains took a [...]

US West enters 'new era' of unstoppable [...]

Doctors will be able to prescribe the medicinal us [...]

After years of huge losses and store closings, the [...]

Diner Newz Feeds

  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

The Doomstead Diner Daily 4/25[html] [...]

Doomstead Diner Daily 4/24[html] [...]

Quote from: Surly1 on April 23, 2017, 10:06:41 AM[ [...]

Maritime Flags of Convenience VisualizedAugust 20, [...]

Quote from: agelbert on April 24, 2017, 11:48:23 A [...]

QuoteThe US is the wrecking machine that is destro [...]

Quote from: RE on April 23, 2017, 08:33:34 PMThe W [...]

A recent string of robberies on BART trains took a [...]

US West enters 'new era' of unstoppable [...]

Doctors will be able to prescribe the medicinal us [...]

After years of huge losses and store closings, the [...]

Saudi Arabia Switching to BRICS in Response to US [...]

Gold got hit again early this morning. The Masters [...]

Gold got algo-smacked yesterday just ahead of the [...]

pump n' dump pump n' dump pump n' d [...]

All the saber rattling is helping gold, which this [...]

Quote from: Palloy2 on April 22, 2017, 09:15:57 PM [...]

What OS, version, and screen pixels?  Android Kit- [...]

OK!  I have decided on the New Tablet to go with t [...]

First they came for the Bats, and I did not speak [...]

Along with discussing the attributes and prices on [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

Spring Has Sprung By Cognitive Dissonance   My apologies for being absent for the last week or so, b [...]

First Impression By Cognitive Dissonance . "You never get a second chance to make a first impre [...]

Fear, Pain and First Till By Cognitive Dissonance   Because I have been struggling with back issues [...]

It Hurts When I Do This By Cognitive Dissonance   “Well, then don’t do that” is the proper response [...]

Standard Issue Incompetence - More Evidence of Imperial Decay (Time for Fight or Flight?) By Cogniti [...]

Event Update For 2017-04-23http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2017-04-22http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2017-04-21http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2017-04-20http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2017-04-19http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

When you wish upon a star the Blue Fairy sends Tinker Bell, who plants a magic seed, which grows int [...]

Wendell Berry: "What I stand for is what I stand on"; Fanfare Ciocărlia: "What we pla [...]

The sounds of the Romanian countryside, unleashed by Fanfare Ciocărlia for twenty years and counting [...]

Fanfare Ciocărlia's lead vocalists (and trumpet players) Radulescu Lazar and Costică "Cima [...]

When I finally made the first steps to end my abstention after more than ten years in the "musi [...]

Daily Doom Photo

man-watching-tv

Sustainability

  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

The Greater Fool"The overdeveloped countries are raising generations of gamblers."  All ecosystems, includ [...]

Confounding Collapse"As brilliant as your conceptual breakthrough may be, there is no escaping your cultural milieu [...]

The Flies of Summer"Any faith that China will be standing at the base of the burning building with a fireman’s net [...]

The Cool Lab"Is it possible that technology no more complicated than an Easy Bake Oven — one that pays for [...]

Rescuing Los Angeles"How can we use our hard wiring to communicate to the herd that it is time to veer off from a r [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

Click here to visit Sustaining Universal Needs’ YouTube Channel! [...]

In the echo-sphere of political punditry consensus forms rapidly, gels, and then, in short order…cal [...]

Discussions with figures from Noam Chomsky and Peter Senge to Thich Nhat Hanh and the Dalai Lama off [...]

Lefty Greenies have some laudable ideas. Why is it then that they don't bother to really build [...]

Democracy and politics would be messy business even if all participants were saints. But America doe [...]

A new book argues that, in order to survive climate change and peak oil, the global money economy ne [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

And still under the assumption it is instant apocalypse. What if collapse is local and personal. You [...]

If there is a "mad max" scenario coming up, what will going to sea accomplish? So many pro [...]

Debt forgiveness is not the problem. Debt is the problem. We have no need for debt. Our system was d [...]

People from all walks of life end up driving taxis for a variety of reasons. It's more fun and [...]

I somewhat agree. Sooner or later there will be oil shortages and price spikes due to insufficient o [...]

Today's required reading: http://energyskeptic.com/2017/art-berman-oil-prices-lower-forever-har [...]

Steve, that video hurt my eyes! No, G*d, no! Things must be pretty bad not far below the surface, ZH [...]

Like I have been saying all over the place the tptb needs to maintain the illusion that it is still [...]

Missing the cowboys - and you too, Steve. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d9DfnJwRNk [...]

Rape! Murder! Just an economist away. [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

This paper highlights the results of bioclimatic-envelope modeling of whiptail lizards belonging to [...]

Extreme weather, by definition, is any unexpected, unusual, unpredictable, severe or unseasonal weat [...]

Cities generally adopt territorial- or production-based rather than consumption-based emissions acco [...]