AIG

Katrina & Isaac: Anniversary Issue

Off the Keyboard of RE

Discuss this article at the Geological and Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

As Isaac bears down on NOLA on the 7th Anniversary of the landfall of Katrina, I though it would be a good idea to make a comparison of these two Hurricanes.  Above you see one of the last of the radar images taken before the Outer bands of Katrina made landfall, one of the most perfectly organized Cyclonic Storms of all time.  Well, at least what we have Satellite Imagery of anyhow.   Below is the most recent Satellite Image of Isaac I can pull up with a permalink:

As is obvious, at this stage of the game, Katrina was a much more Organized Cyclonic Storm, and packing much higher wind speeds as well.  Katrina was at this stage between Cat 3-4, and the Doomsday scenario was that she would continue to strengthen to a Cat 5 before landfall.  That did not happen, she in fact weakenned to around a Cat 2 at landfall.

Isaac by comparison is just barely making Cat 1 wind speeds now, and may strengthen to a Cat 2 before landfall.  In the end the wind speed differential between the two storms on landfall probably will not be more than 20-30MPH.  What should be remembered however is that the damage and loss of life Katrina caused was not a result of high wind velocities, it was a Flooding Event caused by failure of the levee system in a neighborhood that has much of its land below Sea Level.  What is above Sea Level is only barely so.

The main question here is whether with the improvements made since 2005 by the Army Corps of Bozos the levee system will hold its integrity this time?  One suspects the ACoB has positioned more Troops and more Heavy Equipment along the levee system to plug any levee breaches as soon as they occur.  Imagine a few hundred Little Dutch Boys equipped with Caterpillar Back Hoes and Daiwoo Front End Loaders here ready to Spring into ACTION to stick a Finger in the Dyke hole.

This is a Water Level and Pressure problem overall, which can’t really be predicted by any model since you don’t know precisely how much water vapor the system holds, and how much it will drop how fast at any given spot once the system is over land.  That in turn depends on Ground Level Temperatures and Upper Air temperatures above the system itself.  If it is getting overlaid by cooler and drier air above as it rolls ashore, that is what will spawn Tornadoes, and if any one of those Touch Down on a Levee or Lock along the Mighty Mississippi, you definitely get a breach.

To get some idea of what the comparative  Water situation might be like, let’s look at the respective Storm Tracks  of Isaac and Katrina roughly One Day before Landfall.  First, Isaac:

Now the Storm Track for Katrina:

As you can see, both storms are making landfall at just about precisely the same location, but the Angle of Attack is different.  These models 48 hours out are quite accurate, so we can pretty much assume this is how it will go.

Because of the Attack Angle, the Storm Surge which could hit Lake Ponchartrain from Isaac could be bigger than that of Katrina, it depends there on the precise timing of landfall and High Tide.  Also depends on the absolute Speed the storm center is moving, and if you look at the chart, Isaac is not moving as fast as Katrina was at the same relative time.  This means a longer time period with high wind speeds over the water, which translates to more water piling up in higher waves.  The current strom surge is predicted to be about 12 feet, but IMHO there is a significant Error Margin there, probably +-6 feet depending on the time of day Isaac actually hits.

Levee Breach in NOLA, Katrina 2005

Now, overall as opposed to last time with Katrina, IMHO the Army Corps of Bozos is probably prepared to go the full 9 yards to keep the levee system intact,  insofar as their equipment will allow them to do that anyhow.  They also have had 7 YEARS to plan for such a scenario, so if they haven’t figured out how to keep it from occuring again here, they are going to look like, well, BOZOS.  If NOLA Floods AGAIN here, that Big Shity is about Done, Outta Biz.

Lousiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP)

Next main issue here is the Oil Patch, the LOOP and Refineries and Pipelines streaming out from southern LA.  If you remember back to 2008, the damage caused by Gustav and Ike made a mess of this system, and Gas prices spiked up about $.75/Gallon.  That was when Gas was running around $2/Gallon.  If Isaac causes anywhere near the amount of ancillary damage to the whole Oil Production system that Gustav and Ike did, given we also have all the Shit Going Down with Iran and the rest of MENA and total global production capacity is MORE compromised now than in 2008, a hit to this portion of Global Oil Supply now probably drives up the GasDiesel Price $1/Gallon.  That moves it from near the $4 range in the FSoA to around the $5 mark.  The Automobile Industry is already in Collapse now, the “New” GM is on the verge of ANOTHER Bankruptcy.  $5/Gallon Gas puts the Final Nail in the Coffin for Happy Motoring here in the FSofA, and guarantees full blown Recession again, no matter how much Funny Money Helicopter Ben dishes out to the TBTF banks.

Hurricane Damaged oil Platform, Port Fouchon

Beyond those Physical Problems is the Debt Problem, which overall now is an Order of Magnitude or perhaps two greater than it was in 2008.  In the interim time, big Insurers like AIG and Lloyds of London have basically gone BK and are on Goobermint Life Support.  Goobermints that themselves are in deep Debt Problems even without another “Natural Disaster” induced Oil supply problem.  Any projections at all made for the various Industrial Economies to work their way out of the Debt Problem all depend on GROWTH, which is pretty hard to accomplish if Mother Nature keeps taking out your Industrial infrastructure every few years.  Mortagages for instance are issued out on 30 year cycles, and these days you have some Goobermints issuing out Bonds of 50 year durations!  If what you bought with a 30 year Mortgage gets DESTROYED in 7 year increments, the DEBT remains, the COLLATERAL does not.  No McMansion to Repo if it got washed down the Mighty Mississippi and out to sea of course.  Similarly, repairing a damaged Refinery every 7 years is a very pricy deal overall.

So, what is the DANGER as far as Isaac is concerned?  Is it the likelihood of another Flooding Event of the Magnitude of Katrina in NOLA?  Not really, though that would cause not only Economic Havoc but Political Havoc as well here in the FSofA.  If NOLA Floods, you can GUARANTEE Obama-sama loses the Election.  He’ll look like as big a BUFFOON as Dubya did during Katrina.  Romney will be all over that one.  If it does NOT Flood, Obama-sama will crow about how well HE prepared for this as opposed to the poor job done by Dubya, so that enhances his re-election possibilities.

Where the real DANGER though lies is in another “Black Swan” hitting an already very fragile Economic system and Energy Delivery system on the verge of collapse from many other directions not present in 2008 when Gustav & Ike hit the Oil Patch of the GOM.  Greece wasn’t on the verge of being ejected from the Eurozone in 2008.  Spain wasn’t coughing up 7% on its Bond Issues in 2008.  Helicopter Ben wasn’t Doing the Twist and Super Mario Dragon  wasn’t creating Schrodinger Money from Nothing in 2008 either.  A perturbation in the House of Cards created here now has a much more powerful Knock-On effect than it did in 2008.  The system is simply less resilient to SHOCK.

Can you really call this a Black Swan though?  It is not, because Black Swans are not predictable, whereas this one was completely predictable, within a timespan of a decade anyhow.  Another Hurricane hitting this stretch of the GOM is completely predictable now over such timespans.  If the Oceans churn them up at a given rate, you will get a given number hitting the GOM and at least one of them each decade will hit on NOLA and the LOOP or the Houston Ship Channel.  It is GUARANTEED.  How many times can you rebuild this stuff, issuing out still MORE debt to do so?

If Isaac turns out to be a Big One for damage to the Oil Infrastructure of the GOM and Lousiana, this may be the last time.

To finish this 7th Anniversary of Katrina and the oncoming Marriage betwen Isaac and NOLA, let us review an Independent Documentary of  Katrina’s effects and consequences from one competely INSANE Storm Tracker.  That this dude’s SUV held up long enough for him to make his ESCAPE is nothing short of MIRACULOUS.

RE

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

https://image.freepik.com/free-icon/musical-notes-symbols_318-29778.jpg

Support the Diner

Search the Diner

Surveys & Podcasts

NEW SURVEY

Renewable Energy

VISIT AND FOLLOW US ON DINER SOUNDCLOUD

" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D

Archives

Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BX686_LakeMe_G_20130816175615.jpg

loading

Inside the Diner

I'm not that into politics and I really wasn't that tuned into Jerrold Nadler until today. But I started listening to him lay out the history and and the  ground rules and precedents for Presidential impeachment on my lunch hour today.......and I will...

Now getting a windfall is NO guarantee of hanging on to it, or building on it, which is why so many lottery winners end up broke,But if you're financially shrewd and then USE the windfall you might have been lucky enough to get, whether highty deserve...

Remember the old Steve Martin joke? You can be a MILLIONAIRE and pay NO taxes.

There are no "good jobs" anymore.OK, a Nursing degree still probably gets you a job in the Sick Care industry and is *relatively* inexpensive.     My latest Cripple Helper is currently working on her 2 year Associates Degree at a Technical College ...

Quote from: Eddie on Today at 04:34:22 AMQuote from: Surly1 on Today at 03:17:24 AM[url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-religious-death-cult-that-massacred-seven-in-pa...

Recent Facebook Posts

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

Paris (AFP)The world economy is a direct cause of [...]

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "we have [...]

Coca-Cola will not ditch single-use plastic bottle [...]

Diner Newz Feeds

  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

Quote from: Surly1 on Today at 03:17:24 AMInside t [...]

Anybody who shows up at an event like that one, fo [...]

More on the domestic terrorist next door.That Pro- [...]

Inside the Religious Death Cult That Massacred Sev [...]

Doomstead Diner Daily January 23The Diner Daily is [...]

Quote from: UnhingedBecauseLucid on March 18, 2019 [...]

CleanTechnicaSupport CleanTechnica’s work via dona [...]

QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

Paris (AFP)The world economy is a direct cause of [...]

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "we have [...]

Coca-Cola will not ditch single-use plastic bottle [...]

Scientists have unlocked the power of gold atoms b [...]

Quote from: azozeo on August 14, 2019, 10:41:33 AM [...]

Wisconsin Bill Would Remove Barrier to Using Gold, [...]

Under extreme conditions, gold rearranges its atom [...]

The cost of gold futures on the Comex exchange inc [...]

Quote from: RE on January 22, 2020, 04:23:41 AMhtt [...]

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/super-bo [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

The Decline and Fall of Civil Society Chapter One By Cognitive Dissonance     From my perspective at [...]

Missing In Action By Cognitive Dissonance     As a very young pup, whenever I was overdue and not ho [...]

Politicians’ Privilege By Cognitive Dissonance     Imagine for a moment you work for a small or medi [...]

Shaking the August Stick By Cognitive Dissonance     Sometime towards the end of the third or fourth [...]

Empire in Decline - Propaganda and the American Myth By Cognitive Dissonance     “Oh, what a tangled [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-21http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-20http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-19http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-18http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-01-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

MbS, the personification of the age-old pre-revolutionary scenario in which an expiring regime attem [...]

Daily Doom Photo

man-watching-tv

Sustainability

  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

Thugs and Circuses: President Cobblepot's Season Finale"As the world watches, our circus moves to the floor of the Senate next week, pitting a real-es [...]

John Wayne squares off against Jim Hansen"Being a good climate scientist doesn’t automatically give you a doctorate in health physics. [...]

Detoxing Capitalism"Capitalism is a system used by sunflowers and salamanders. But sunflowers and salamanders are [...]

Climate Games"We should feel fortunate to have arrived at such a moment and to have witnessed the peak, all [...]

Our Genetic Timebomb"The yaksha asked: “What is the greatest surprise?” Yudhisthira replied: “People die every day, [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

What extinction crisis? Believe it or not, there are still climate science deniers out there. And th [...]

My new book, Abolish Oil Now, will talk about why the climate movement has failed and what we can do [...]

A new climate protest movement out of the UK has taken Europe by storm and made governments sit down [...]

The success of Apollo 11 flipped the American public from skeptics to fans. The climate movement nee [...]

Today's movement to abolish fossil fuels can learn from two different paths that the British an [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

I see that there is a downtrend started. What is it that makes you think it will move below the MA 2 [...]

Gail gets a shout-out from Tim Watkins in today's post over at : https://consciousnessofsheep.c [...]

It is a good thing that there seems to be intelligent design underlying how the universe operates. T [...]

Agreed! Shipping LNG across the Atlantic Ocean adds something like $2 per Mcf to the cost of product [...]

My point is merely that we should be willing to discuss everything. Steve's specialty is the in [...]

The interest rates haven't been moving very far in either direction compared to what they used [...]

I don't believe what they're saying. "3: The Fed has yet to address the "demand [...]

Can't help checking out ZH every now and then. Here is the penultimate paragraph in an article [...]

Let's abolish the Fed. Banks cover their own ass in the repo market. Frackers fail unless oil p [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

Efficient water management plans should rely on quantitative metrics for assessing water resource sh [...]

Adapting our cities to the new climate regime is critical to ensure that human development is not je [...]

Air temperature, both cold and hot, has impacts on mortality and morbidities, which are exacerbated [...]

The prospect of an ice-free Arctic in our near future due to the rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ic [...]