Crash

Oil Crash 2016 Terrifies Banksters

Oil Barrels with Red Arrow isolated on white background. 3D rendergc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Michale Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on January 18, 2016

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Last time around it was subprime mortgages, but this time it is oil that is playing a starring role in a global financial crisis.  Since the start of 2015, 42 North American oil companies have filed for bankruptcy, 130,000 good paying energy jobs have been lost in the United States, and at this point 50 percent of all energy junk bonds are “distressed” according to Standard & Poor’s.  As you will see below, some of the big banks have a tremendous amount of loan exposure to the energy industry, and now they are bracing for big losses.  And the longer the price of oil stays this low, the worse the carnage is going to get.

Today, the price of oil has been hovering around 29 dollars a barrel, and over the past 18 months the price of oil has fallen by more than 70 percent.  This is something that has many U.S. consumers very excited.  The average price of a gallon of gasoline nationally is just $1.89 at the moment, and on Monday it was selling for as low as 46 cents a gallon at one station in Michigan.

But this oil crash is nothing to cheer about as far as the big banks are concerned.  During the boom years, those banks gave out billions upon billions of dollars in loans to fund exceedingly expensive drilling projects all over the world.

Now those firms are dropping like flies, and the big banks could potentially be facing absolutely catastrophic losses.  The following examples come from CNN

For instance, Wells Fargo (WFC) is sitting on more than $17 billion in loans to the oil and gas sector. The bank is setting aside $1.2 billion in reserves to cover losses because of the “continued deterioration within the energy sector.”

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is setting aside an extra $124 million to cover potential losses in its oil and gas loans. It warned that figure could rise to $750 million if oil prices unexpectedly stay at their current $30 level for the next 18 months.

Citigroup is another bank that also has a tremendous amount of exposure

Citigroup (C) built up loan loss reserves in the energy space by $300 million. The bank said the move reflects its view that “oil prices are likely to remain low for a longer period of time.”

If oil stays around $30 a barrel, Citi is bracing for about $600 million of energy credit losses in the first half of 2016. Citi said that figure could double to $1.2 billion if oil dropped to $25 a barrel and stayed there.

For the moment, these big banks are telling the public that the damage can be contained.

But didn’t they tell us the same thing about subprime mortgages in 2008?

We are already seeing bank stocks start to slide precipitously.  People are beginning to realize that these banks are dangerously exposed to a lot of really bad deals.

If the price of oil were to shoot back up above 50 dollars in very short order, the damage would probably be manageable.  Unfortunately, that does not appear likely to happen.  In fact, now that sanctions have been lifted on Iran, the Iranians are planning to flood the world with massive amounts of oil that they have been storing in tankers at sea

Iran has been carefully planning for its return from the economic penalty box by hoarding tons of oil in tankers at sea.

Now that the U.S. and European Union have lifted some sanctions on Iran, the OPEC country can begin selling its massive stockpile of oil.

The sale of this seaborne oil will allow Iran to get an immediate financial boost before it ramps up production. The onslaught of Iranian oil is coming at a terrible time for the global oil markets, which are already drowning in an epic supply glut.

Just the other day, I explained that some of the biggest banks in the world are now projecting that the price of oil could soon fall much, much lower.

Morgan Stanley says that it could go as low as 20 dollars a barrel, the Royal Bank of Scotland says that it could go as low as 16 dollars a barrel, and Standard Chartered says that it could go as low as 10 dollars a barrel.

But the truth is that the price of oil does not need to go down one penny more to have a catastrophic impact on global financial markets.  If it just stays right here, we will see an endless parade of layoffs, energy company bankruptcies  and debt defaults.  Without any change, junk bonds will continue to crash and financial institutions will continue to go down like dominoes.

We are already experiencing a major disaster.  Things are already so bad that some forms of low quality crude oil are literally selling for next to nothing.  The following comes from Bloomberg

Oil is so plentiful and cheap in the U.S. that at least one buyer says it would pay almost nothing to take a certain type of low-quality crude.

Flint Hills Resources LLC, the refining arm of billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch’s industrial empire, said it offered to pay $1.50 a barrel Friday for North Dakota Sour, a high-sulfur grade of crude, according to a corrected list of prices posted on its website Monday. It had previously posted a price of -$0.50. The crude is down from $13.50 a barrel a year ago and $47.60 in January 2014.

While the near-zero price is due to the lack of pipeline capacity for a particular variety of ultra low quality crude, it underscores how dire things are in the U.S. oil patch.

A chart that I saw posted on Zero Hedge earlier today can help put all of this into perspective.  Whenever the price of oil falls really low relative to the price of gold, there is a major global crisis.  Right now an ounce of gold will purchase more oil than ever before, and many believe that this indicates that a new great crisis is upon us…

The number of barrels of oil that a single ounce of gold can buy has never, ever been higher.

Barrels Of Oil Per Ounce Of Gold

All over the planet, big banks are absolutely teeming with bad loans.  And to be honest, the big banks in the U.S. are probably in better shape than some of the major banks in Europe and Asia.  But once the dominoes start to fall, very few financial institutions are going to escape unscathed.

In the coming days I would expect to see more headlines like we just got out of Italy.  Apparently, Italian banks are nearing full meltdown mode, and short selling has been temporarily banned.  To me, it appears that we are just inches away from full-blown financial panic in Europe.

However, just like with the last financial crisis, you never quite know where the next “explosion” is going to happen next.

But one thing is for sure – the financial crisis that began during the second half of 2015 is raging out of control, and the pain that we have seen so far is just the beginning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SPECIAL REPORT: STOCK CRASH! IT’S ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!

crash-graph-300x186gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard, microphone and video editor of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 18, 2016

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Audio Only:

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Events are moving so fast now that I need to disrupt my regularly scheduled Collapse Rants for a SPECIAL BULLETIN.

It's ON LIKE DONKEY KONG now!

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Global markets are in complete turmoil and the bottom is nowhere in sight. Oil prices have collapsed below the $30 handle to around $28 on the futures market this morning. The Saudi market is now in uber-bear territory, off 50% from its peak.

Will the PPT be able to step up to the plate today and halt the PANIC RUN? What rabbit can they pull out of the Hat this time?

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What TBTF entity will be the first to Cry Uncle and roll over and die?

It's a full on clusterfuck to start the week here, and the cracks in the dyke are getting bigger pretty fast.

Fasten your seatbelts Diners, because it looks like the Titanic has hit the Iceberg.

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Black Monday

gc2smOff the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on August 24, 2015

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The First Time EVER The Dow Has Dropped By More Than 500 Points On Two Consecutive Days

New York City Empire State Building - Public DomainOn Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 588 points. It was the 8th worst single day stock market crash in U.S. history, and it was the first time that the Dow has ever fallen by more than 500 points on two consecutive days. But the amazing thing is that the Dow actually performed better than almost every other major global stock market on Monday.  In the U.S., the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both did worse than the Dow. In Europe, almost every major index performed significantly worse than the Dow.  Over in Asia, Japanese stocks were down 895 points, and Chinese stocks experienced the biggest decline of all (a whopping 8.46 percent). On June 25th, I was not kidding around when I issued a “red alert” for the last six months of 2015. I had never issued a formal alert for any other period of time, and I specifically stated that “a major financial collapse is imminent“. But you know what? As the weeks and months roll along, things will eventually be even worse than what any of the experts (including myself) have been projecting. The global financial system is now unraveling, and you better pack a lunch because this is going to be one very long horror show.

Our world has not seen a day quite like Monday in a very, very long time. Let’s start our discussion where the carnage began…

Asian Markets

For weeks, the Chinese government has been taking unprecedented steps to try to stop Chinese stocks from crashing, but nothing has worked. As most Americans slept on Sunday night, the markets in China absolutely imploded

As Europe and North America slept on Sunday night, Chinese markets went through the floor — the Shanghai Composite index of stocks fell by 8.49%, the biggest single-day collapse since 2007.

It wasn’t alone. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 5.17%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 4.61%. Stocks in Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand also tumbled.

Things would have been even worse in China if trading had not been stopped in most stocks. Trading was suspended for an astounding 2,200 stocks once they hit their 10 percent decline limits.

Overall, the Shanghai Composite Index is now down close to 40 percent from the peak of the market, and the truth is that Chinese stocks are still massively overvalued when compared to the rest of the world.

That means that they could very easily fall a lot farther.

European Markets

The selling momentum in Asia carried over into Europe once the European markets opened. On a percentage basis, all of the major indexes on the continent declined even more than the Dow did

In Europe, the bloodbath from Friday continued unabated. The German Dax plunged 4.7%, the French CAC 40 5.4%, UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 4.7%. Euro Stoxx 600, which covers the largest European companies, was down 5.3%.

But wait… Europe is where the omnipotent ECB and other central banks have imposed negative deposit rates. The ECB is engaged in a massive ‘whatever it takes” QE program to inflate stock markets. But it’s not working. Omnipotence stops functioning once people stop believing in it.

U.S. Markets

Even before U.S. markets opened on Monday morning, the New York Stock Exchange was already warning that trading would be halted if things got too far out hand, and it almost happened

The thousands of companies listed by the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market will pause for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunges 7 percent before 3:25 p.m. New York time. The benchmark got close earlier, falling as much as 5.3 percent.

There were other circuit breakers in place for later in the day if too much panic selling ensued, but fortunately none of those were triggered either. Here is more from Bloomberg

Another circuit breaker kicks in if the S&P 500 extends its losses to 13 percent before 3:25 p.m. If the plunge reaches 20 percent at any point during today’s session, the entire stock market will shut for the rest of the day.

When the U.S. markets did open, the Dow plunged 1,089 points during the opening minutes of trading. If the Dow would have stayed at that level, it would have been the worst single day stock market crash in U.S. history by a wide margin.

Instead, by the end of the day it only turned out to be the 8th worst day ever.

And in case you are wondering, yes, investors are losing a staggering amount of money. According to MarketWatch, the total amount of money lost is now starting to approach 2 trillion dollars

As of March 31, households and nonprofits held $24.1 trillion in stocks. That’s both directly, and through mutual funds, pension funds and the like. That also includes the holdings of U.S.-based hedge funds, though you’d have to think that most hedge funds are held by households.

Using the Dow Jones Total Stock Market index DWCF, -4.21% through midmorning trade, that number had dropped to $22.32 trillion.

In other words, a cool $1.8 trillion has been lost between now and the first quarter — and overwhelmingly, those losses occurred in the last few days.

Unfortunately, U.S. stock prices are still nowhere near where they should be. If they were to actually reflect economic reality, they would have to fall a lot, lot lower.

For example, there is usually a very strong correlation between commodity prices and the S&P 500, but in recent times we have seen a very large divergence take place. Just check out the chart in this article. At this point the S&P 500 would have to fall another 30 to 40 percent or commodities would have to rise 30 or 40 percent in order to close the gap. I think that the following bit of commentary sums up where we are quite nicely

“Markets are afraid of further economic weakness in China, further pain in global commodity markets and uncertain about Fed and PBoC policy — what they will do and what the impact will be,” Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes wrote on Monday. “The divergence between global commodity prices and equities is not a new theme but the danger now is that they begin to re-correlate – as they did when the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 and what had previously been an emerging market crisis became a US recession.”

And commodities were absolutely hammered once again on Monday.

For instance, the price of U.S. oil actually fell below 38 dollars a barrel at one point.

What we are watching unfold is incredible.

Of course the mainstream media is bringing on lots of clueless experts that are talking about what a wonderful “buying opportunity” this is. Even though those of us that saw this coming have been giving a detailed play by play account of the unfolding crisis for months, the talking heads on television still seem as oblivious as ever.

What is happening right now just doesn’t seem to make any sense to the “experts” that most people listen to. I love this headline from an article that Business Insider posted on Monday: “None of the theories for the Black Monday market crash add up“. Yes, if you are willingly blind to the long-term economic and financial trends which are destroying us, I guess these market crashes wouldn’t make sense.

And if stocks go up tomorrow (which they probably should), all of those same “experts” will be proclaiming that the “correction” is over and that everything is now fine.

But don’t be fooled by that. Just because stocks go up on any particular day does not mean that everything is fine. We are in the midst of a financial meltdown that is truly global in scope. This is going to take time to fully play out, and there will be good days and there will be bad days.  The three largest single day increases for the Dow were right in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008. So one very good day for stocks is not going to change the long-term analysis one bit.

It isn’t complicated. Those that follow my writing regularly know that I have repeatedly explained how things were setting up in textbook fashion for another global financial crisis, and now one is unfolding right in front of our eyes.

At this point, everyone should be able to very clearly see what is happening, and yet most are still blind.

Why is that?

Death Cross in the Markets

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on August 12, 2015

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A Death Cross, Wild Market Swings And A Currency War – And We Haven’t Even Gotten To September Yet

Things continue to line up in textbook fashion for a major financial crisis by the end of 2015.  This week, Wall Street has been buzzing about the first “death cross” that we have seen for the Dow since 2011.  When the 50-day moving average moves below the 200-day moving average, that is a very important psychological moment for the market.  And just like during the run up to the stock market crash of 2008, we are starting to witness lots of wild swings up and down.  The Dow was up more than 200 points on Monday, the Dow was down more than 200 points on Tuesday, and it took a nearly 700 point roundtrip on Wednesday.  This is exactly the type of behavior that we would expect to see during the weeks or months leading up to a crash.  As any good sailor will tell you, when the waters start getting very choppy that is not a good sign.  Of course what China is doing is certainly not helping matters.  On Wednesday, the Chinese devalued the yuan for a second day in a row, and many believe that a new “currency war” has now begun.

So what does all of this mean?

Does this mean that the time of financial “shaking” has now arrived?

Let’s start with what is happening to the Dow.  When the 50-day moving average crosses over the 200-day moving average, it is a very powerful signal.  For example, as Business Insider has pointed out, if you would have got into stocks when the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average in December 2011, you would have experienced a gain of 43 percent by now…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an unrelenting upward trajectory since its October 2011 low.

The signal that convinced many traders that the market was now moving with a bullish bias was when the 50-day moving average of the index price rose above the 200-day moving average a couple of months later at the end of December.

Since then the market rallied 6,200 points to a high of 18,333 before pulling back to last night’s close of 17,404. That’s a gain of around 43% even though the market is 5% off its high.

But now a cross is happening in the other direction.  That is why it is called a “death cross”.  It is quite understandable why a lot of investors are freaking out about the fact that the 50-day moving average has moved below the 200-day moving average for the first time in four years.  Every major stock market in history has been preceded by a death cross.

Of course no indicator is perfect.  Sometimes these death crosses come just before market crashes, and other times nothing much seems to happen.  The following comes from MarketWatch

The 50-day moving average (or “MA”) crossed below a rising 200-day MA on July 7, 2010, when the Dow closed at 10,018.28. The Dow’s closing low for 2010 was actually hit two sessions earlier, at 9,686.48.

But the Dow fell another 5.9% over six weeks after the Aug. 24, 2011 death cross, and tumbled as much as 50% over 14 months after the one appearing on Jan. 3, 2008.

And keep in mind that when the January 2008 death cross appeared, the Dow had lost just 7.8% from its Oct. 9, 2007 peak. That means the bull market was still firmly in place, as the rule of thumb is a bear market is defined by a decline of at least 20% from a significant peak. In addition, the 200-day moving average didn’t turn lower until two weeks after the death cross appeared.

But this is not the only indicator pointing to trouble ahead.  Even while we have many stocks hitting 52-week highs, we also have an extraordinary number hitting 52-week lows.  This is called a “split market”, and this is a very ominous sign.  In fact, according to Peter Boockvar 62 percent of all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are already trading below their 200-day moving average…

Peter Boockvar, market strategist at Lindsey Group, said he believes the market is in a correction that began a few weeks ago, starting with commodities names getting hit. The small-cap Russell 2000 was also a leader of the declines. “The key is it’s infecting other areas of the market. You have every headwind and every reason to continue this correction,” he said.

Going into today, 62 percent of the NYSE stocks were trading below the 200-day moving average,” said Boockvar. “More and more companies are dropping out of the bull market.”

At this point, we have already had more than 50 “split days” this year.  King World News has just released an article which has pointed out this has only happened four times before, and a major stock market crash has followed each occurrence…

The only other times in history we’ve seen more than 50 split days during the past year were March 1968, August 1972, October 2000 and July 2006.

After all four of those, stocks lost more than a third of their value at some point during the next two years.

Are you starting to see?

A stock market crash is coming.

Another thing that has investors concerned is the fact that we have seen a large divergence between high yield credit and stocks.  As Bloomberg has pointed out, when this happens a significant stock market decline follows more than 70 percent of the time…

While not without precedent, instances when anxiety in bonds didn’t seep into equities are rare. More than 70 percent of the time since 1996, as spreads widened as much as they have since April, the S&P 500 has fallen, with the average decline exceeding 10 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

This is something that sooner or later is going to impact the stock market,” said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at New York-based BlackRock Inc., which oversees $4.7 trillion. “Credit market conditions have not been benign and easy as where they were last summer.”

On top of everything else, it looks like a global currency war could be erupting.

According to USA Today, this desperate move by China to devalue the yuan may indicate that the Chinese economy is in far worse shape than most had thought…

One, China’s move suggests that its economy is in worst shape than believed. “It highlights the fragility of the global economy,” says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. Second, a weaker yuan means a stronger dollar, and a stronger dollar means U.S. products sold in China are more expensive, which means fewer sales of Apple iPhones, hotel rooms offered by Wynn Resorts and computer chips made by Micron Technology.

Lastly, there is a fear that other nations will respond to China by devaluing their own currencies to stay competitive.

When people start talking about ‘currency wars,’ it’s never a good thing,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “China’s move to devalue its currency could be the first shot across the bow towards a wider currency war.”

As I discussed yesterday, it seems like the phrase “currency war” has been thrown around a lot lately.

But what would that look like, and what would that mean for the global economy?

Well, former IMF economist Stephen Jen is suggesting that we could soon see major currencies all over the planet being devalued by up to 50 percent

[The] devaluation of the yuan risks a new round of competitive easing that may send currencies from Brazil’s real to Indonesia’s rupiah tumbling by an average 30 percent to 50 percent in the next nine months, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund economist Stephen Jen.

Volatility measures were already signaling rising distress in emerging markets even before China’s shock move. An index of anticipated price swings climbed above a rich-world gauge at the end of July, reversing the trend seen for most of the past six months.

The surging U.S. dollar combined with crashing prices for commodity exports has already created a state of crisis in South America.  If emerging markets such as Brazil are forced to devalue their currencies to stay competitive with nations such as China, that is going to just exacerbate the problems.

For a long time, things in the financial world were pretty quiet.

But now events are beginning to accelerate.

A lot of people are extremely concerned about what is going to happen in September, and I think that there are very good reasons to be concerned.

Throughout our history, the majority of our stock market crashes have happened in the fall.  Just remember what happened in 1929, 1987 and 2008.

Now we are approaching that time of the year once again, and things are lining up perfectly for a major financial crisis.

Gone, Gone, Baby it’s All Gone

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on June 21, 2015

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Discuss this article at the Kitchen Sink inside the Diner

Did you ever spend a few hours typing up an email reply or a message on the net, hit the SUBMIT button and have the post disappear into the ether, lost forever in the sea of digibits floating around the internet?  Or go to open up a file you were working on saved on your own computer, but when you try to open it up, you get a "FILE CORRUPT" error message?

Or, God Forbid, one day you try to turn on your laptop, only to get the Blue Screen of Death?

blue-screen

Just losing one email you spent a lot of time writing is pretty frustrating.  It's a lot worse when you lose your entire hard drive, but usually in that case you can bring it over to the local Computer Renaissance and the geeks can extract the data off of it.  It's usually still intact, just the drive motor gave out or the computer motherboard quit etc.

Still, it's a sinking feeling if you don't have that Magical Wand called BACKUP.

Now, take this feeling and imagine you run a website where you have spent 1000s of hours over 3 years writing, and not just you writing for it either.  Dozens of other people also writing and contributing to the data stored on your website.  Then one day you awaken, and you find your website is down, and you don't have a backup.

IT'S GONE, GONE, BABY IT'S ALL GONE.  IT'S OVER FOR ME AND IT'S OVER FOR YOU.

http://outlookexpresshelp.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/outlook-express-help8.jpg Now, similar to bringing your hard drive in for the Geek Squad to extract your data, Web Hosts have a thing called "Tech Support".  These Pros From Dover most of the time can fix up your site and recover your data.

Not always though, and sometimes the backup copies they have don't work either, or the backup copy is stored on the same server as your original live version and the whole server goes down, not just your website if you are on a shared server, which most Blogs except the very biggest like Zero Hedge are on.

Such was the case with the most recent crash of the Diner, besides internal problems we were having with the WordPress Blog, a couple of sticks of RAM went bad on the server, the MySQL which controls all the databases got screwed up, and the Diner and some other nonsense in French got jumbled together, all in all a major CLUSTERFUCK.

By day 3 of the CRASH I was giving up all Hopium that the Diner would ever be recovered.  3 years and thousands of hours of work, all GONE in the blink of an eye!

At the height of the crash, I wrote the following message on the Diner "Beta" Forum, a Forum on Create-a-Forum I created in a prior Diner Crash:

On Losing the Diner
« on: June 04, 2015, 05:46:24 am »

It is Thursday Morning June 4, 2015, 2AM AK Time.

As of right now, all the material on the Doomstead Diner, thousands of pages put up by myself and other Diners is currently lost and inaccessible on the web.

There is apparently now a problem with MySQL on our server host  the Code Jockeys are working to fix, and hopefully they will succeed.

Doomer Support took a backup copy of the Diner yesterday, so hopefully the material will all be retrieved at some future date on some server.

However, I have always known this is all time limited, and really about nobody goes back and looks at archives in a Blog anyhow.  What you write on a Blog only lasts a few days to a month before nobody ever reads it again.

So if it all is gone for good, so be it.  Some people read the stuff when it was fresh and first came off my keyboard.  That is good enough.

In terms of keeping the Doomstead Diner going, I will give it a week or so, and if the Code Jockeys at ASO and Doomer Support cannot resurect the Diner, then I will simply start over, first here and then with a Blogspot or free WP Blog, and point the DoomsteadDiner.net and DoomsteadDiner.com that way.

I'm not going to quit writing about collapse on the net until I croak.  I'm not going to quit ranting either, and at least last I checked Diner Soundcoud was still running.  If/When it collapses, I'll find other free cloud storage for mp3s and drop them on there.

Today's project will be setting up a new Doomstead Diner Beta Blog on Blogspot or WordPress.  I won't switch the URL pointer to that for at least a week or so.  I think Doomer Support and the Code Jockeys at ASO will get this fixed here, so I'm not going to prematurely jump the gun and flip the switch over on the URL yet.

No matter what occurs here, the Doomstead Diner has been a Great Adventure for me over these last few years, and I do know that what I wrote reached many people.  That is good enough.  The internet will not last forever, probably not more than another 20 years IMHO.  About Nobody goes back to read the old stuff anyhow.  What I wrote, what I thought does exist somewhere, and will for all eternity.  It cannot be destroyed, it cannot be hacked.

Tomorrow is another day I will carry on here, and spend my day chatting with support to fix the Diner.  I am not worried about this though one way or the other.  I will keep writing and ranting no matter what until I Buy My Ticket to the Great BeyondTM.

RE

As Philosophical and Stiff Upper Lip as I was trying to be with that post, I was really feeling quite devastated at the time.  The Diner was supposed to be my LEGACY.

legacy

noun leg·a·cy \ˈle-gə-sē\

: something  that is received from someone who has died

: something that happened in the past or that comes from someone in the past

Although I am quite aware of the truth that few people will go back and read my old articles after I Buy My Ticket to the Great Beyond TM, it's my hope that at least a few will, and also that the Diner Community and the SUN Project will continue onward as well for a while longer too.

I also know that what is up on the internet is not going to be up for reading forever also.  The Energy requirements to keep it running, the personal technology of laptops for everyone to be able to access it, and the poor economics of it eventually will take it offline.  I'd give it maybe 20 more years of general accessibility, although the main servers and cached information may remain on Google servers longer than that, accessible to a few Illuminati.  Even that though eventually will go down, maybe 50 years for that.

Not a real long time in the grand scheme of things, matched up against some text written on paper or papyrus, there's still some Legacy material floating around now that goes back around 4000 years for that stuff.  The oldest known writing comes on the Dispilio Stone Tablet and dates back around 7000 years.

http://www.ancient-origins.net/sites/default/files/field/image/distilio-tablet.jpg

If you go to the area of Cave Wall Paintings as conveyors of Legacy Information, the oldest ones of those go back around 40,000 years

Cave paintings are paintings found on cave walls and ceilings, and especially those of prehistoric origin, which date back to some 40,000 years ago in both Asia and Europe. The exact purpose of the Paleolithic cave paintings is not known. Evidence suggests that they were not merely decorations of living areas since the caves in which they have been found do not have signs of ongoing habitation. They are also often located in areas of caves that are not easily accessible. Some theories hold that cave paintings may have been a way of communicating with others, while other theories ascribe a religious or ceremonial purpose to them. The paintings are remarkably similar around the world, with animals being common subjects that give the most impressive images. Humans mainly appear as images of hands, mostly hand stencils made by blowing pigment on a hand held to the wall.

The earliest known cave paintings/drawings of animals are at least 35,000 years old, at Maros on the island of Sulawesi in Indonesia, according to datings announced in 2014. Previously it was believed that the earliest paintings were in Europe.[1] The earliest figurative paintings in Europe date back to the Aurignacian period, approximately 30,000 to 32,000 years ago, and are found in the Chauvet Cave in France, and in the Coliboaia Cave in Romania.[2] The earliest non-figurative rock art dates back to approximately 40,000 years ago, the date given both to a disk in the El Castillo cave in Cantabria, Spain and a hand stencil in Sulawesi. There are similar later paintings in Africa, Australia and South America, continuing until recent times in some places, though there is a worldwide tendency for open air rock art to succeed paintings deep in caves.

"AltamiraBison" by Rameessos

The oldest known Sculpture is around the same age as the Cave Wall art, at around 40,000 years also.

Venus of Hohle Fels

So in comparison to the artists who who did those Paintings and Sculpture, even a 50 year Legacy is pretty small potatoes, if you can even manage that.

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/cavalry_charge_1905_4616.jpgSmall potatoes or not though, now that I got the Diner BACK, thanks to Tech Support at ASO and Doomer Support of the Database Cavalry From California TM, I'm on a Mission From God to make the Diner as resilient as I can, and try to make sure it stays up on the web until the Internet Goes Dark TM.

The first part of the plan I hatched with my good friend Doomer Support.  He has already done two major Stick Saves of the Diner, we had another problem back in 2013 on my old server which he was able to fix, and that's when I moved over to join him at ASO.

Both of us upgraded our separate hosting packages to Virtual Private Servers, or VPS.  We're both taking backups of the sites we host on each other's server, and creating an automated backup system between the two servers.  So if any website on the server crashes, or even if the whole fucking server crashes, we still have working copies of up to date material dropped on the databases.  This is pretty close to BULLETPROOF as far as backup is concerned.

However, in terms of making the material LAST for the full 50 years maybe possible here, this isn't the only problem you have.  The other problem is MONEY.

This server space isn't all that expensive in the grand scheme of things (I spend more money on Beer in a month than on my Hosting package), but obviously once I am DEAD I won't be paying the bills on the server.  So I did go ahead and pay up a full year in advance on the hosting Package, and 5 years in advance on the URL registration, but that still only gets 5 years if I cough up 4 more years advance payment, which now is getting into a significant sum of money.  Still just 5 years though, not 50.

Now, assuming the Diner Community hangs together here, maybe they will continue to pay Diner Bills in order to keep it running, that would be GREAT! Image result for sunny smiley

Still unlikely  they will keep paying the bills for the next 50 years though. 🙁

The only chance to keep all the material up until the Internet Goes Dark TM is to get the Diner up onto FREE Internet Blog space on the WordPress website, where nobody has bills to pay on it.

In order to do this, I created the new DoomsteadDinerBeta blog.  The actual address of Diner Beta is

https://doomsteaddinerbeta.wordpress.com/

also accessible until 2021 at doomsteaddiner.com. The actual current address of the LIVE Diner is doomsteaddiner.net.

To create this Beta version, I used a fresh version of WP without all the Plugins and Widgets myself and others have installed here on the main Diner.  Such plugins can cause havoc with your database if you don't keep them all updated, along with updates to WP itself, so Beta gets nothing but the bare bones of a WP site, with a stock theme as well.

To transfer the database, I'm not doing a wholesale copy and trying to import it over there (not even sure you can do that, I don't see a utility for it on WP and I don't have access to their cPanel either), I am going article by article and just pasting over the HTML.  I'm also not copying EVERY article on the Diner, just those written by Native Diners, not the Cross Posted articles from other Blogs.  If those folks want to try to create a Legacy Blog, they can do that themselves.  As it is, just copying Native Diner articles is a long and tedious process, I'm only about halfway through it now, up to July of 2013 or so after several days and numerous hours at this task, which is cutting into my writing and ranting time. 🙁  However, it's important to me to have this backup copy up on the web, so I am slogging my way through it.

As far as the Diner Forum  here is concerned, there is a whole lot more material in the SMF database than on the WP Blog database for the Blog, and the Diner Beta Forum works the same, but it doesn't have any of the data from this one in it, and I doubt it ever will.  I also don't see any means of importing databases to Create-a-Forum, and copy/pasting all the posts here over there is out of the question.  So the current Forum is likely to be lost when the main Diner goes down for good. The material MAY be cached on Google servers though, they have spiders crawling through the database all the time.

I have tons of other material up on the web I am going to try and move to free space over time, like all the Rants and Interviews currently up on Diner Soundcloud, which also has a yearly fee for the Pro Package.  I will update on that when I get to it, but the priority right now is the main Diner Blog, which will probably take another week or two to get finished in transfer.

Diner TV is already up on Free You Tube space, so that needs no changes to stay up as long as Google does, which is until the Internet Goes Dark TM.

Beyond all that are the Yahoo Groups like Reverse Engineering I ran over the years.  This material is on free space, the problem is these were all Restricted Groups for Members Only.  So if you don't have a User ID & Password, you can't read the material in the database.  You can't change the group setting to Public anymore either.  I'm still trying to work out a reasonable automated means of capturing that material to make it public in Blog form.  If I can't do that, I will make a User Name and Password anyone can use to go read there.

So, all in all, if I can finish the Diner Archiving Project TM before I Buy My Ticket to the Great Beyond TM, I should be about the most resilient Doomer on the net, with multiple backups and cyber-redundancy.

I WILL NOT LOSE THE DINER!  Image result for sunny smiley

I will not live forever, but the Diner will LIVE until the INTERNET GOES DARK TM.

My LEGACY as an internet writer and forum moderator for a Quarter Century will not disappear the day I Buy My Ticket to the Great Beyond TM.

LONG LIVE THE DOOMSTEAD DINER

DINER HELL WEEK: THE CRASH STORY

Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on June 7, 2015

Visit the New Diner News Page for Daily Updates from around the Collapse Blogosphere

Churchill-Hell

Discuss this article at the Kitchen Sink inside the Diner

It was HELL WEEK here on the Diner.

As regular Diners know, we were down for most of this week, and have been experiencing intermittent problems since the week before that.

The problems began with malware that insinuated itself into WordPress, we're still not sure how or when it got there, whether through a plugin or a hack of some type.

This took down the Diner a few times in the prior week, but got patched a couple of times by support on the server host.

Then the real fun begins.

A new problem cropped up with MySQL on the server itself, which controls access to all the databases on the server, not just the Diner.  This took down everything and everybody, including Nature Bats Last, Guy McPherson's blog. At this point the real marathon of being online nearly 24/7 exchanging support emails and chats begins.

Finally I am told that the problem is identified, it is being fixed and all will be restored "soon".  So I finally go to get some sleep.

When I awaken I go back to check and I find that not only has the problem not been fixed, the Diner account on the server has been SUSPENDED!  So now I get on the phone with an Account Rep to find out why and resolve that problem.  Apparently the Diner was using too many resources on the server and policy is in such cases to suspend the account entirely.

This of course is absurd, especially if the customer first off is paid up well in advance, and second has been online working in good faith with the support team to resolve the problems.  There are many possible alternatives to suspending the account itself, and dropping such a message everyone can read on the web.

First and easiest is to just repoint the URL to a page which says, "Website is down for Maintenance" while you go on a Search & Destroy mission to find the problem and fix it.  Second, if the site is using up too much of shared server resources, you could move it temporarily to a separate server and Quarantine it while you figure out why these problems are occuring.  This has the added advantage that the techies can observe the problems as they are occuring.

This came at a particularly critical moment for the Diner SUN project, which is currently hooking up with Professional Fundraisers to get funding and begin the process of translating the ideas we have discussed into real life action.  How does it look to see a "Account Suspended" message to these folks?

The Diner and the SUN website represent 3 years of work and 1000s of hours & pages just by myself, not to mention the MANY people who have contributed to the Diner and SUN project over that time period.  This disaster put at risk ALL of that work.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4R_H84Qn_H0/VWdlXVSngpI/AAAAAAAAbl4/1NbpMW2_UE8/s400/SCHREYVOGEL_Charles_Cavalry_Charge_1905_Wadsworth_Athenaeum_source_Sandstead_d2h_.jpgAnyhow, at this point The Database Cavalry From CaliforniaTM rides in over the hill to the rescue.  It's not the first time either. In fact Doomer Support is responsible for the fact the Diner got saved in it's first major crisis, and moved the Diner from the old server we were hosted on to the one where it is now.  He also has helped out in a couple of other more minor crashes we experienced in the interim.  Doomer support also captured and transferred Nature Bats Last to our space when that site was under massive SPAM attack and resucitated it. The Database Cavalry From CaliforniaTM is the Crash Cart for Doomer Blogs on the ropes.  LOL.

So now the account is finally unsuspended, and the website goes back up, but now the Database is missing at least half of the material that was dropped on there, and not only that but it is also corrupted by material in French from some other website probably also hosted on the same server.

So now another Site Restore with a Backup Copy has to be done, and fortunately somebody captured a good copy on June 3rd, either Doomer Support or the Host Support people, because none of the backups I tried to capture worked properly.

In the end, we got just about all of it back, except it is currently missing the Slider that Featured recent articles, and one Draft I had going was not captured.  Hopefully we will get the Slider reloaded at some point in the future, because I really liked that widget.

What this whole experience reinforced with me is something I have always known, which is that all the stuff you drop on the net is time limited, ephemeral and can disappear in an INSTANT.  While deep in the midst of the crisis, I wrote the following on the Diner Beta Forum I set up during an earlier crash on the Free Space of Create-a-Forum

On Losing the Diner
« on: Today at 05:46:24 am »

It is Thursday Morning June 4, 2015, 2AM AK Time.

As of right now, all the material on the Doomstead Diner, thousands of pages put up by myself and other Diners is currently lost and inaccessible on the web.

There is apparently now a problem with MySQL on our server host  the Code Jockeys are working to fix, and hopefully they will succeed.

Doomer Support took a backup copy of the Diner yesterday, so hopefully the material will all be retrieved at some future date on some server.

However, I have have always known this is all time limited, and really about nobody goes back and looks at archives in a Blog anyhow.  What you write on a Blog only lasts a few days to a month before nobody ever reads it again.

So if it all is gone for good, so be it.  Some people read the stuff when it was fresh and first came off my keyboard.  That is good enough.

In terms of keeping the Doomstead Diner going, I will give it a week or so, and if the Code Jockeys at ASO and Doomer Support cannot resurect the Diner, then I will simply start over, first here and then with a Blogspot or free WP Blog, and point the DoomsteadDiner.net and DoomsteadDiner.com that way.

I'm not going to quit writing about collapse on the net until I croak.  I'm not going to quit ranting either, and at least last I checked Diner Soundcoud was still running.  If/When it collapses, I'll find other free cloud storage for mp3s and drop them on there.

Today's project will be setting up a new Doomstead Diner Beta Blog on Blogspot or WordPress.  I won't switch the URL pointer to that for at least a week or so.  I think Doomer Support and the Code Jockeys at ASO will get this fixed here, so I'm not going to prematurely jump the gun and flip the switch over on the URL yet.

No matter what occurs here, the Doomstead Diner has been a Great Adventure for me over these last few years, and I do know that what I wrote reached many people.  That is good enough.  The internet will not last forever, probably not more than another 20 years IMHO.  About Nobody goes back to read the old stuff anyhow.  What I wrote, what I thought does exist somewhere, and will for all eternity.  It cannot be destroyed, it cannot be hacked.

Tomorrow is another day I will carry on here, and spend my day chatting with support to fix the Diner.  I am not worried about this though one way or the other.  I will keep writing and ranting no matter what until I Buy My Ticket to the Great BeyondTM.

RE

Anyhow, ephemeral or not, time limited or not, I never QUIT.   I am working on creating other forms of Backup so that on occasions this sort of shit goes down, there will be places for Diners to go to get information on the latest in Doom, even if all the old information disappears.  I wrote this one on the Diner Forum once we got that back up:

I have created the new Diner Beta Blog to go with the Diner Beta Forum

As of yet, not a whole lot of Content in either location.

The Beta Forum mostly contains messages about our various crashes over time, and likely will not have a whole lot more than that ever.  I'm not gonna try and copy over posts from this Forum to that one, not enough hours in the day for that one.  LOL.

On the Beta Blog, I will paste over just Text from Blogs on the Diner from the Native Diners.  No Cross Posting Bloggers.  No multimedia, maybe some pics if they paste easy, haven't tried it yet.  At 5/day, I should get them all pasted over in 6 months or so, maybe less.

Because it is FREE on Google, this Blog will stay up just about as long as the net does.  :icon_sunny:

Since several Diners suffered Withdrawal Symptoms when the Diner crashed today (including me!), this is INSURANCE you can get your Diner Fix even on Crash Days by hitting either of the above links, I am sure to be posting on the latest Collapse issue for the Diner there if I am still above ground.  I suggest BOOKMARKING them for real Diner Addicts.

The first Article is UP on the New Diner Blog, which you can read by clicking on the Link above.

As far as all the Audio goes, with each account you make on Spreaker you get 10 hours of FREE Audio Storage space! You can make such an account with any legit email account you have to validate it.  Just on FREE accounts on Google and Yahoo you guys would not believe how many I have.  LOL.  I can also make UNLIMITED new email accounts on the Diner as long as I have it running, and once validated you don't really need it anymore.  So I can essentially get unlimited FREE Audio storage this way.

Far as the Rants go, they average around 9min and I have around 140 of them for 1260 total minutes, or a little over 20 hours.  I can fit them all on 3 Google or Yahoo email IDs I have EZ, without even making more email addys on the Diner!  To get all the Interviews up on FREE space, I would need to use more email addys.

For the Vids, they are ALREADY on FREE YouTube space!  :icon_sunny:

So once I get the material moved to all these FREE spaces, it stays up until either these websites/companies collapse, or the Internet Goes DarkTM

If/When the Diner goes down AGAIN, we jump to the FREE space!  No down time for Diner Addicts this way!  :icon_sunny:

I am going to be the most Resilient Web Junkie on the Net!  They will not shut me up until they pry my cold dead fingers off the fucking keyboard!  :icon_mrgreen:

RE

P.S.-I am reposting this to the Beta Forum!  :icon_sunny:

http://weaponsman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/fat_lady_sings.jpgIt ain't OVAH until the Fat Lady Sings.  Not until the Internet Goes DarkTM or I Buy My Ticket to the Great BeyondTM or they pack me off to GITMO will the Doomstead Diner disappear from the net, in some form, somewhere.

LONG LIVE

THE DOOMSTEAD DINER!

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

logopodcastOff the microphone of RE

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Aired on the Doomstead Diner on May 22, 2015

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MoneyHoleDiscuss this Rant at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

 

Snippet:

…Bitcoins, a relatively new form of electronic money are also often hawked as the latest and greatest solution to keeping your money safe. Except EVERYBODY KNOWS about Mt. Gox by now. From Wiki:

Mt. Gox was a Bitcoin exchange based in Tokyo, Japan. It was launched in July 2010, and by 2013 was handling 70% of all Bitcoin transactions.[1] In February 2014, the Mt. Gox company suspended trading, closed its website and exchange service, and filed for a form of bankruptcy protection from creditors called minji saisei, or civil rehabilitation, to allow courts to seek a buyer.[2][3] In April 2014, the company began liquidation proceedings.[4] It announced that around 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.[5][6] Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been "found", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—are unclear as of March 2014.[7]

You think Fraud, Mismanagement and Hacking will STOP if money goes cashless? OF COURSE NOT, IT WILL GET WORSE! There is no computer system ever that is foolproof and incapable of being hacked, and of course the rewards for hacking such a system or “mismanaging” it gets bigger all the time, so the Best & the Brightest spend all their time figuring out how to do that…

For the rest, LISTEN TO THE RANT!!!

Full Rant Transcript available HERE

ALSO, IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE SO ALREADY, TAKE THE SURVEY ON NEAR TERM HUMAN EXTINCTION BELOW!

Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Publshed on The Economic Collapse on May 17, 2015

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usdollarcollapse

Discuss this article at the Economics Table inside the Diner

Global Debt - Public DomainDid you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet?  And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is going to be much larger than that.  If we took everything that the global economy produced this year and everything that the global economy produced next year and used it to pay all of this debt, it still would not be enough.  According to a recent report put out by the McKinsey Global Institute entitled “Debt and (not much) deleveraging“, the total amount of debt on our planet has grown from 142 trillion dollars at the end of 2007 to 199 trillion dollars today.  This is the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and those numbers mean that we are in substantially worse condition than we were just prior to the last financial crisis.

When it comes to debt, a lot of fingers get pointed at the United States, and rightly so.  Just prior to the last recession, the U.S. national debt was sitting at about 9 trillion dollars.  Today, it has crossed the 18 trillion dollar mark.  But of course the U.S. is not the only one that is guilty.  In fact, the McKinsey Global Institute says that debt levels have grown in all major economies since 2007.  The following is an excerpt from the report

Seven years after the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007. Global debt in these years has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt to GDP by 17 percentage points (Exhibit 1). That poses new risks to financial stability and may undermine global economic growth.

What is surprising is that debt has actually grown the most in China.  If you can believe it, total Chinese debt has grown from 7 trillion dollars in 2007 to 28 trillion dollars today.  Needless to say, that is absolutely insane…

China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China’s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.

What all of this means is that our long-term global economic problems have gotten much, much worse.  This short-lived period of relative stability that we have been enjoying has been fueled by unprecedented amounts of debt and voracious money printing.  Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that this is a giant financial bubble, and in the end it is going to unwind very, very painfully.  The following comes from a Canadian news source

At the beginning of 2008, government accounted for a smaller portion of the debt pie than corporate, household or financial debt. It now exceeds each of those other categories.

The current situation is much worse than in 2000 or 2007, and with interest rates near or at zero, the central banks have already used up their ammunition. Plus, the total indebtedness, especially the indebtedness of governments, is much higher than ever before,” said Claus Vogt, a Berlin-based analyst and co-author of a 2011 book titled The Global Debt Trap.

“Every speculative bubble rests on some kind of a fairy tale, a story the bubble participants believe in and use as rationalization to buy extremely overvalued stocks or bonds or real estate,” Mr. Vogt argued. “And now it is the faith in the central-planning capabilities of global central bankers. When the loss of confidence in the Fed, the ECB etc. begins, the stampede out of stocks and bonds will start. I think we are very close to this pivotal moment in financial history.”

But for the moment, the ridiculous stock market bubble continues.

Internet companies that didn’t even exist a decade ago are now supposedly worth billions upon billions of dollars even though some of them don’t make any money at all.  There is even a name for this phenomenon.  Internet companies that have gigantic valuations without gigantic revenue streams are being called “unicorns”

A dizzying mix of bold ideas and lavish investments has catapulted dozens of privately held start-ups to unicorn status, defined as having market valuations of at least $1 billion often without soaring revenues to match. Social-sharing site Pinterest has soared to $11 billion. Ride-hailing company Uber is now worth a staggering $50 billion.

How long can the party last?

And these days, Wall Street even rewards companies that lose huge amounts of money quarter after quarter.  For example, just check out what happened when JC Penney announced that it only lost 167 million dollars during the first quarter of 2015…

Yippee!!! JC Penney ONLY lost $167 million in the first quarter. The Wall Street shysters are ecstatic because they BEAT expectations. Buy Buy Buy.

This loss now brings JC Penney’s cumulative loss since 2011 to, drum roll please, $3.5 BILLION. They haven’t had a profitable quarter in over four years. But, they are always on the verge of that turnaround just over the horizon.

Wall Street has told you to buy this stock from $42 in 2012 to it’s current pitiful level of $9. They tout the wonderful 3.4% increase in comparable sales. They fail to mention that first quarter 2016 sales are only 30% below first quarter sales in 2011.

They fail to mention that JC Penney burned through another $274 million of cash in the first quarter. Their equity has dropped by $1 billion in the last year, while their long term debt has gone up by $500 million.

This is how irrational Wall Street has become.  JC Penney is ultimately going to zero, and yet there are still people out there that are pouring huge amounts of money into that financial black hole.

Sadly, the truth is that Wall Street is headed for a very painful awakening.

What we are experiencing right now is the greatest financial bubble of all time.

What comes after that is going to be the greatest financial crash of all time.

199,000,000,000,000 dollars of debt is about to come crashing down, and the pain of this disaster will be felt by every man, woman and child on the entire planet.

It’s About to Get Ugly

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on February 4, 2015

Economy-Hindenburgh

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It Is About To Get Ugly: Oil Is Crashing And So Is Greece

The price of oil collapsed by more than 8 percent on Wednesday, and a decision by the European Central Bank has Greece at the precipice of a complete and total financial meltdown.  What a difference 24 hours can make.  On Tuesday, things really seemed like they were actually starting to get better.  The price of oil had rallied by more than 20 percent since last Thursday, things in Europe seemed like they were settling down, and there appeared to be a good deal of optimism about how global financial markets would perform this month.  But now fear is back in a big way.  Of course nobody should get too caught up in how the markets behave on any single day.  The key is to take a longer term point of view.  And the fact that the markets have been on such a roller coaster ride over the past few months is a really, really bad sign.  When things are calm, markets tend to steadily go up.  But when the waters start really getting choppy, that is usually a sign that a big move down in on the horizon.  So the huge ups and the huge downs that we have witnessed in recent days are likely an indicator that rough seas are ahead.

A stunning decision that the European Central Bank has just made has set the stage for a major showdown in Europe.  The ECB has decided that it will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral from Greek banks.  This gives the European Union a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiations with the new Greek government.  But in the short-term, this could mean some significant pain for the Greek financial system.  The following is how a CNBC article described what just happened…

“The European Central Bank is telling the Greek banking system that it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral for any repurchase agreement the Greek banks want to conduct,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.

“This is because the ECB only accepts investment grade paper and up until today gave Greece a waiver to this clause. That waiver has now been taken away and Greek banks now have to go to the Greek Central Bank and tap their Emergency Liquidity Assistance facility for funding,” he said.

And it certainly didn’t take long for global financial markets to respond to this news

The Greek stock market closed hours ago, but the exchange-traded fund that tracks Greek stocks, GREK, crashed during the final minutes of trading in the US markets.

The euro is also getting walloped, falling 1.3% against the US dollar.

The EUR/USD, which had recovered to almost 1.15, fell to nearly 1.13 on news of the action taken by the ECB.

But this is just the beginning.

In coming months, I fully expect the euro to head toward parity with the U.S. dollar.

And if the new Greek government will not submit to the demands of the EU, and Greece ultimately ends up leaving the common currency, it could potentially mean the end of the eurozone in the configuration that we see it today.

Meanwhile, the oil crash has taken a dangerous new turn.

Over the past week, we have seen the price of oil go from $43.58 to $54.24 to less than 48 dollars before rebounding just a bit at the end of the day on Wednesday.

This kind of erratic behavior is the exact opposite of what a healthy market would look like.

What we really need is a slow, steady climb which would take the price of oil back to at least the $80 level.  In the current range in which it has been fluctuating, the price of oil is going to be absolutely catastrophic for the global economy, and the longer it stays in this current range the more damage that it is going to do.

But of course the problems that we are facing are not just limited to the oil price crash and the crisis in Greece.  The truth is that there are birth pangs of the next great financial collapse all over the place.  We just have to be honest with ourselves and realize what all of these signs are telling us.

And it isn’t just in the western world where people are sounding the alarm.  All over the world, highly educated professionals are warning that a great storm is on the horizon.  The other day, I had an economist in Germany write to me with his concerns.  And in China, the head of the Dagong Rating Agency is declaring that we are going to have to face “a new world financial crisis in the next few years”

The world economy may slip into a new global financial crisis in the next few years, China’s Dagong Rating Agency Head Guan Jianzhong said in an interview with TASS news agency on Wednesday.

“I believe we’ll have to face a new world financial crisis in the next few years. It is difficult to give the exact time but all the signs are present, such as the growing volume of debts and the unsteady development of the economies of the US, the EU, China and some other developing countries,” he said, adding the situation is even worse than ahead of 2008.

For a long time, I have been pointing at the year 2015.  But this year is not going to be the end of anything.  Rather, it is just going to be the beginning of the end.

During the past few years, we have experienced a temporary bubble of false stability fueled by reckless money printing and an unprecedented accumulation of debt.  But instead of fixing anything, those measures have just made the eventual crash even worse.

Now a day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Life as we know it is about to change dramatically, and most people are completely and totally unprepared for it.

Oil Market Unravels

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on January 5, 2015

20130410-peak-oil-america

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Oil Falls Below 50 As Global Financial Markets Begin To Unravel

Crisis Silhouette - Public DomainOn Monday, the price of oil fell below $50 for the first time since April 2009, and the Dow dropped 331 points.  Meanwhile, the stock market declines over in Europe were even larger on a percentage basis, and the euro sank to a fresh nine year low on concerns that the anti-austerity Syriza party will be victorious in the upcoming election in Greece.  These are precisely the kinds of things that we would expect to see happen if a global financial crash was coming in 2015.  Just prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the price of oil collapsed, prices for industrial commodities got crushed and the U.S. dollar soared relative to other currencies.  All of those things are happening again.  And yet somehow many analysts are still convinced that things will be different this time.  And I agree that things will indeed be “different” this time.  When this crisis fully erupts, it will make 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.

Another thing that usually happens when financial markets begin to unravel is that they get really choppy.  There are big ups and big downs, and that is exactly what we have witnessed since October.

So don’t expect the markets just to go in one direction.  In fact, it would not be a surprise if the Dow went up by 300 or 400 points tomorrow.  During the initial stages of a financial crash, there are always certain days when the markets absolutely soar.

For example, did you know that the three largest single day stock market advances in history were right in the middle of the financial crash of 2008?  Here are the dates and the amount the Dow rose each of those days…

October 13th, 2008: +936 points

October 28th, 2008: +889 points

November 13th, 2008: +552 points

Just looking at those three days, you would assume that the fall of 2008 was the greatest time ever for stocks.  But instead, it was the worst financial crash that we have seen since the days of the Great Depression.

So don’t get fooled by the volatility.  Choppy markets are almost always a sign of big trouble ahead.  Calm waters usually mean that the markets are going up.

In order to avoid a major financial crisis in the near future, we desperately need the price of oil to rebound in a substantial way.

Unfortunately, it does not look like that is going to happen any time soon.  There is just way too much oil being produced right now.  The following is an excerpt from a recent CNBC article

The Morgan Stanley strategists say there are new reports of unsold West and North African cargoes, with much of the oil moving into storage. They also note that new supply has entered the global market with additional exports coming from Russia and Iraq, which is reportedly seeing production rising to new highs.

Since June, the price of oil has plummeted close to 55 percent.  If the price of oil stays where it is right now, we are going to see large numbers of small producers go out of business, the U.S. economy will lose millions of jobs, billions of dollars of junk bonds will go bad and trillions of dollars of derivatives will be in jeopardy.

And the lower the price of oil goes, the worse our problems are going to get.  That is why it is so alarming that some analysts are now predicting that the price of oil could hit $40 later this month

Some traders appeared certain that U.S. crude will hit the $40 region later in the week if weekly oil inventory numbers for the United States on Wednesday show another supply build.

‘We’re headed for a four-handle,’ said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow in New York. ‘Maybe not today, but I’m sure when you get the inventory numbers that come out this week, we definitely will.’

Open interest for $40-$50 strike puts in U.S. crude have risen several fold since the start of December, while $20-$30 puts for June 2015 have traded, said Stephen Schork, editor of Pennsylvania-based The Schork Report.

The only way that the price of oil has a chance to move back up significantly is if global production slows down.  But instead, production just continues to increase in the short-term thanks to projects that were already in the works.  As a result, analysts from Morgan Stanley say that the oil glut is only going to intensify

Morgan Stanley analysts said new production will continue to ramp up at a number of fields in Brazil, West Africa, Canada and in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as well as U.S. shale production. Also, the potential framework agreement with Iran could mean more Iranian oil on the market.

Yes, lower oil prices mean that we get to pay less for gasoline when we fill up our vehicles.

But as I have written about previously, anyone that believes that lower oil prices are good for the U.S. economy or for the global economy as a whole is crazy.  And these sentiments were echoed recently by Jeff Gundlach

Oil is incredibly important right now. If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying.

If the price of oil does not recover, we are going to see massive financial problems all over the planet and the geopolitical stress that this will create will be unbelievable.

To expand on this point, I want to share an excerpt from a recent Zero Hedge article.  As you can see, a rapid rise or fall in the price of oil almost always correlates with a major global crisis of some sort…

Large and rapid rises and falls in the price of crude oil have correlated oddly strongly with major geopolitical and economic crisis across the globe. Whether driven by problems for oil exporters or oil importers, the ‘difference this time’ is that, thanks to central bank largesse, money flows faster than ever and everything is more tightly coupled with that flow.

Oil Crisis Chart - Zero Hedge

So is the 45% YoY drop in oil prices about to ’cause’ contagion risk concerns for the world?

And without a doubt, we are overdue for another stock market crisis.

Between December 31st, 1996 and March 24th, 2000 the S&P 500 rose 106 percent.

Then the dotcom bubble burst and it fell by 49 percent.

Between October 9th, 2002 and October 9th, 2007 the S&P 500 rose 101 percent.

But then that bubble burst and it fell by 57 percent.

Between March 9th, 2009 and December 31st, 2014 the S&P 500 rose an astounding 204 percent.

When this bubble bursts, how far will it fall this time?

CNN: “Russia Headed for Crash.”

From the keyboard of Thomas Lewis
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Russia, known for its long, hard winters, may be entering a very long, very hard one.

Russia, known for its long, hard winters, may be entering a very long, very hard one.

First published at The Daily Impact  December 16, 2014

In the headlong rush toward the edge of the cliff at the end of the industrial age, Russia has suddenly pulled ahead by a nose(dive). The headline “Russia Headed for Crash” has appeared on the CNN Money website, although the news mavens in the Situation Room see no reason to go wall-to-wall with coverage when there are Cosby accusers to flush and another Bush is thinking about (!) running for president(!) in 20016! The lamestream media are trapped deep in the spurious narrative of the steely-eyed Putin resuming the Cold War as if it were 1950 and he were the Soviet Union, while Chinese tentacles slither across the globe projecting the power of the world’s largest (!) and weakest (!) and quite likely stupidest (!) economy.

The reality that is now rearing its ugly head in Russia has nothing to do with geopolitics and everything to do with food, personal safety, staying warm in winter, that kind of thing. It’s about what happens when governors place such a low priority on the welfare of the governed that they sacrifice it for things that seem to them more important — such as gaining  another country to run into the ground. History has not been kind to such megalomaniacs, nor will the present.

Russia is experiencing runaway inflation and a flight of capital that together are  destroying its currency. Russia’s wealth is its oil, which according to its own finance minister peaked this year and is now in decline, so it was already clear that the notion of Russia Resurgent was on shaky ground, long before Putin annexed Crimea and threatened Ukraine, thus clamping his economy under tough sanctions imposed by the West. Now his remaining national income has been cut nearly in half by the precipitous drop in oil prices.

Yesterday, the exchange rate for the Russian ruble fell below $60 US, about half its worth at the beginning of the year. The weaker the ruble, the harder it is to pay for imported goods and to repay foreign debts, and one result is an inflation rate that is on its way to 10% per year. High inflation means that necessities, such as bread and heating oil, are increasingly out of reach for the poor.

But wait, there’s more. Like most of the oil companies in the world, Roseneft, the Russian-owned oil company that brings in most of the country’s oil revenue, is up to its eyeballs in debt. It has avoided default because the Russian central bank keeps bailing it out with cheap, imaginary money – you know, like the Federal Reserve has been doing for America’s largest and richest corporations for five years or so.

Bailouts for the Too Big to Fail are one thing when renting money is virtually free, coming in the door at under one per cent per year. It’s quite another thing, however, when your desperate central bank has to increase interest rates to 17 per cent per year, as the Russians just did. That’s in addition to fire-hosing $90 billion into the economy to prop up the ruble and slow the flight of capital. High interest rates and hemorrhaging treasuries are the bad news; the worse news it, it’s not working.

Russia’s abrupt decline has made it the temporary leader in the race to destruction, but if your money’s on China unraveling first, don’t despair. Everything is getting worse, fast, there as well. And don’t count out America — the financial conflagration that is consuming the oil-fracking industry has spread to the junk — I’m sorry, I mean “high yield” — bond market and the smoke can be smelled now on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Hang on to your bets. We’re coming into the stretch.

 

***

 

Thomas Lewis is a nationally recognized and reviewed author of six books, a broadcaster, public speaker and advocate of sustainable living. He also is Editor of The Daily Impact website, and former artist-in-residence at Frostburg State University. He has written several books about collapse issues, including Brace for Impact and Tribulation. Learn more about them here.

 

 

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

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Published on The Economic Collapse on November 30, 2014

This is where stock and gas prices are going. To see the panic index, read from right to left.

This is where stock and gas prices are going. To see the panic index, read from right to left.

Discuss this article at the Economics Table inside the Diner

Price Of Oil Causes A Junk Bond Crash - Public DomainThere has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months.  The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months.  Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.  When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets.  As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market.  And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way.  So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds.  If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy.  Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet.

Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia.  This “revolution” has resulted in the creation of  millions of jobs since the last recession, and it has been one of the key factors that has kept the percentage of Americans that are employed fairly stable.

Unfortunately, the shale oil boom is coming to an abrupt end.  As a recent Vox article discussed, OPEC has essentially declared a price war on U.S. shale oil producers…

For all intents and purposes, OPEC is now engaged in a “price war” with the United States. What that means is that it’s very cheap to pump oil out of places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. But it’s more expensive to extract oil from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. So as the price of oil keeps falling, some US producers may become unprofitable and go out of business. The result? Oil prices will stabilize and OPEC maintains its market share.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues falling, we will see a significant number of U.S. shale oil companies go out of business and large numbers of jobs will be lost.  The Saudis know how to play hardball, and they are absolutely ruthless.  In fact, we have seen this kind of scenario happen before

Robert McNally, a White House adviser to former President George W. Bush and president of the Rapidan Group energy consultancy, told Reuters that Saudi Arabia “will accept a price decline necessary to sweat whatever supply cuts are needed to balance the market out of the US shale oil sector.” Even legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens believes Saudi Arabia is in a stand-off with US drillers and frackers to “see how the shale boys are going to stand up to a cheaper price.” This has happened once before. By the mid-1980’s, as oil output from Alaska’s North Slope and the North Sea came on line (combined production of around 5-6 million barrels a day), OPEC set off a price war to compete for market share. As a result, the price of oil sank from around $40 to just under $10 a barrel by 1986.

But the energy sector has been one of the only bright spots for the U.S. economy in recent years.  If this sector starts collapsing, it is going to have a dramatic negative impact on our economic outlook.  For example, just consider the following numbers from a recent Business Insider article

Specifically, if prices get too low, then energy companies won’t be able to cover the cost of production in the US. This spending by energy companies, also known as capital expenditures, is responsible for a lot of jobs.

“The Energy sector accounts for roughly one-third of S&P 500 capex and nearly 25% of combined capex and R&D spending,” Goldman Sachs’ Amanda Sneider writes.

Even more troubling is what this could mean for the financial markets.

As I mentioned above, energy companies now account for close to 20 percent of the entire junk bond market.  As those companies start to fail and those bonds start to go bad, that is going to hit our major banks really hard

Everyone could suffer if the collapse triggers a wave of defaults through the high-yield debt market, and in turn, hits stocks. The first to fall: the banks that were last hit by the housing crisis.

Why could that happen?

Well, energy companies make up anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of all U.S. junk debt, according to various sources.

It would be hard to overstate the seriousness of what the markets could potentially be facing.

One analyst summed it up to CNBC this way

This is the one thing I’ve seen over and over again,” said Larry McDonald, head of U.S strategy at Newedge USA’s macro group. “When high yield underperforms equity, a major credit event occurs. It’s the canary in the coal mine.

The last time junk bonds collapsed, a major stock market crash followed fairly rapidly.

And those that were hardest hit were the big Wall Street banks

During the last high-yield collapse, which centered around debt tied to the housing sector, Citigroup lost 63 percent of its value in the following 60 days, Kensho shows. Bank of America was cut in half.

I understand that some of this information is too technical for a lot of people, but the bottom line is this…

Watch junk bonds.  When they start crashing it is a sign that a major stock market collapse is right at the door.

At this point, even the mainstream media is warning about this.  Just consider the following excerpt from a recent CNN article

That swing away from junk bonds often happens shortly before stock market downturns.

“High yield does provide useful sell signals to equity investors,” Barclays analysts concluded in a recent report.

Barclays combed through the past dozen years of data. The warning signal they found is a 30% or greater increase in the spread between Treasuries and junk bonds before a dip.

If you have been waiting for the next major financial collapse, what you have just read in this article indicates that it is now closer than it has ever been.

Over the coming weeks, keep your eye on the price of oil, keep your eye on the junk bond market and keep your eye on the big banks.

Trouble is brewing, and nobody is quite sure exactly what comes next.

The Mix of the VIX

Off the keyboard of John Ward

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Published on The Slog on October 18, 2014

https://hat4uk.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/hold-onptnet.png

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THE SATURDAY ESSAY: there’s no consumer credit or liquidity funds left folks….and the Vix knows it

CORRECTIONS: THE MARKETS KNOW PERFECTLY WELL THAT THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING

For those too young (or late) to realise it, The Slog as a brand name is derived from the term Bollockslog. Following last week’s end of the beginning of the end of globalist neoliberal mercantilist claptrap, you may have noticed that the bollocks has been spewing forth from the defenders of this foundation-free and entirely idiotic ‘model’ of capitalism. But we should not be deceived.

Two inalienable truths remain for critics of this economic construct to keep banging on about:

1. The world economy has been 100% dependent on sovereign debt and consumer credit for the best part of fifteen years.

2. The current system’s ability to find finance via banks and bourses is not sustainable without constant injections of taxpayer monies.

This second point is really the killer, but both are fundamental. We are being asked to believe in/support/accept or whatever a system of economic activity that works like this: 97% of electors subsidise it (by maxing credit cards, losing interest rate income, paying higher taxes, and being deprived of social services) while 3% of troughers at the top hoover up all the money for themselves.

Put succinctly: consumers have no real money with which to consume, and the private sector has no liquidity to help producers grow.

Ergo, the system grinds to a halt…very, very slowly….until an important sovereign debt is no longer sustainable, and/or borrowing rates rise, at which point, the entire deck of cards collapses.

Night and day, week in week out, two things have to be in perfect focus all the time – just to keep even the appearance of there being a show that might be on the road: QE driven liquidity, and Zirp. Stop doing either, and boom, you’re dead.

…………………………..

But you wouldn’t think that judging from the ‘élite’ output. This is from the freshly-baked IMF Report for October 2014. I’ve highlighted the bleeding obvious and the blinding illogic therein:

‘Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues. Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of 2014, the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The global growth projection for 2015 was lowered to 3.8 percent.

Downside risks have increased since the spring. Short term risks include a worsening of geopolitical tensions and a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression in financial markets. Medium-term risks include stagnation and low potential growth in advanced economies and a decline in potential growth in emerging markets.

Given these increased risks, raising actual and potential growth must remain a priority.’

It’s like something out of a Solzhynitsin novel about Soviet doublespeak. Why have growth targets been reduced? ‘because of weaker than expected activity’. You don’t say, Cisco? I was thinking maybe it might be down to sunspots, or perhaps a supply-chain problem in the treacle-bending sector.

And don’t you love those medium term risks? Stagnating developed markets, low potential, and declining potential. Jumping jetcars Batman, stagnating decline and an absence of potential….that’s a pretty exhaustive risk-list.

But fear not, because the Lone Ranger and Tonto have made raising potential their next stop on the DoGood trail. “How do yer think we’re gonna raise that low decline into high growth Tonno?” The faithful Indian pauses before responding to the superior White masked man. “Keemosabbe, important we make economy low in decliningness, high in growingness”. With a hi-ho Silver and ha-wayeeee.

The truth is – as nearly always – very much simpler. The people out there doing the buying, selling, directionalising and cash-cow milking (but not a lot of wheel-oiling on the whole) know the game’s up, and the only thing on their minds right now is how to keep a close eye on the vintage Krug glass.

There is no test in history that can match the Krug Test. It works like this: we’re all on a big ship, a ship so big and unwieldy because it has been built to go at very high speeds but not to avoid big lumps of hard stuff in its path. The trick is to constantly trough 24/7 at the goodies table, while always having a beady eye on the Krug glass.

When the glass shivers a little, and spills a minute drop of the amber nectar onto the caviar-stained tablecloth, we’ve hit the iceberg. So this is the time to smile at the glass, drink its contents, and every so casually retreat from the dining room to the comfort of that First Class Cabin, open the safe, put all the jewellery in a carpet-bag, and load the Colt 45 to the brim with lead.

The next stage will involve a great deal of volatility, but for your personal chances of survival to remain in double figures, the chief requirement is the bold act of jumping up to the nearest lifeboat, putting a gun to the steward’s head and shouting (with a degree of firmness) “F**k the women and children, lower this sucker into the sea before the SS Leviathan drags us under”.

That such volatility lies ahead is obvious to those running the show, and luckily we can measure this using the Vix, or volatility index….more precisely, expectations of what the Vix will itself show going forward.

Last week’s Vix of itself was small compared to 2008. But the forward expectation was higher than anything ever recorded before. Put simply, this means that the vast majority of people not only think that much worse shit lies ahead: they think that nobody can see any fat ladies singing, and for that matter we don’t even know there’s a fat lady with a good voice on the ship.

Equally simple to explain is why they think that way. The chart below shows the degree to which Point 2 at the start of this piece is incontrovertibly correct:

QEgraphptnetFor me, there are two startling colours in the above: the the Bank of England, and and the ECB. For what they tell us is that at the end of 2013, the two big Europe-based central banks of the Pound and Euro gave up on liquidity injection – ie, QE.

Now, we already knew that about the Dollar’s Fed – and that’s confirmed by the tailoff in navy blue. But what we can now do is see how the markets have reacted over time, leading up to last week. The bottom line on this in hard cash terms is that just stopping a market rout costs the public purse some $800 billion a year.

In an astonishingly bonkers piece for the Daily Telegraph two days ago, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard opined that such a permanent QE position might be inevitable. He just didn’t say how on earth that could ever be either possibly or desirable.

Abe san in Tokyo, of course, thinks it’s just a matter of scale, because he is mad. But the crucial point to take away from this analysis I would summarise as follows. If the cost of keeping the circus alive costs “the West” not far shy of a trillion bucks a year – and the West is already neck-deep in further trillions of debt – that sum is unaffordable. But if you take away the stimulant, the patient goes into a coma.

This is known among the elevated circles in which I operate as the Lifeboat or Drown Event.

………………………………..

The human misery that has been inflicted upon entirely innocent electorates in order to prop up this ridiculous cross between sham and scam is off the scale of pernicious insanity, but whatever the smug cynics believe, push is now coming to shove.

A desperate jobless father entered the tax office in Rhodes holding in his arms his 18-month-old baby earlier this week. “Take it,” he told the stunned tax officers “I cannot feed it anymore.” The father discovered that the tax office had confiscated €300 from his bank, which meant he was skint.

Not only did he find himself in that position as a result of corrupt, spineless politicians who over-borrowed from rapacious lenders; he was also in that position because a trident of greed, Washington and Brussels (egged on by Berlin) force-fed the Greeks an austerity plan certain to depress consumption in a capitalist system that could only function in the first place through fake money aka credit.

Now I am not saying here that a starving populace will make any of these dangerous lunatics change direction. To think that really would be to adopt a naivety flying in the face of all the empirical evidence. No: what is going to happen now is that those wannabe survivors without guns to force the lifeboat issue will try and buy one….in a situation where guns are scarce, and the stern is rising out of the water.

And that’s the point at which the steerage passengers will decide enough is enough….unless forcibly dissuaded from such a conclusion.

………………………………..

Logically, I think we are looking at another, this time more concerted, correction in stock markets fairly imminently. Then two options remain, each delivering its own likelihoods:

OPTION 1: THE SHIP IS DOOMED, EVERY MAN FOR HIS OWN LIFEBOAT

* Collapse of the entire fabric of banking, investment, and economic activity.

* Anarchy, chaos, revolution, widespread violence

* Breakdown of vital services allowing pandemics to spread

* Resultant huge cull in the human population as a result of civil strife, nuclear exchanges and disease.

OPTION 2: THE SHIP IS SALVAGEABLE, WE MUST LIMP TO THE NEAREST PORT

* Growing awareness of the markets’ doom

* Exacerbation of that with a rapidly deteriorating eurozone crisis involving one or more of failing banks, lost confidence in the ECB, Bankfurt rebellion against the single currency, Italian default and French truculence

* Money-printing on a massive scale

* Lurch to the hard-Right in the face of divided and muddled liberal Parties

* Emergency Powers being extended beyond ‘anti-terrorism’ laws

* It all depends, hard to tell etc etc etc.

My money is on the second option, which might be both a good and a bad thing. Certainly, in that eventuality the outcome will depend entirely on whether the thinking minority can outgun the thoughtless élites, and thus get the brainless onside against those élites. David Cameron says I am now a non-violent extremist, and so obviously I would want the whole thing managed without violence. Whether it will be or not is an entirely different matter.

However, I thought I’d end this essay with an extract from an email sent to a Greek friend earlier today:

‘Real people get on the ground and listen to other real people. Real people know it’s all tits up. I estimate about 3-4% of the populations are doing very nicely thank you out of this, and another 7% have practical experience + discernment to realise what’s going on and want to stop it. Maybe another 1% are in government or the media, but they get about 90% of the airtime when it comes to opinion. The other 89% are too tired or thick to care.
So the battle in the end is going to consist of 7% trying to persuade 89% that the 4% are talking out of their backsides. We outnumber them, but they have all the levers and the munneeeee. Our two main weapons are inventiveness and not being egomanic. That’s it’.
Enjoy the weekend.

The Oil Drama

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi

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Published on Resource Crisis on October 16, 2014

Oil prices: data up to Oct 06 from EIA, updated to Oct 15 according to www.oil-price.net/

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Are we going to see a repeat of the 2008 oil price collapse? It is still too early to tell, but, clearly, something is moving in in the oil market: something big; as I discussed in a previous post.

If prices really collapse, the consequences could be devastating for the profits of marginal producers, especially for “non conventional” resources such as shale oil, tar sands, heavy oil, deepwater and the like. Unless the dip were to be very short lived (as it was in 2008), it would necessarily result in a fall in the production levels. That would be, of course, a disaster for the world’s economy.

The oil drama is playing in front of us: we can only watch as it unfolds.

CRASH2: the roadsigns become so frequent, people can’t see them for looking

Off the keyboard of John Ward

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Published on The Slog on August 29, 2014

wileycoyote1

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  THIS WAY TO THE CRASH

https://hat4uk.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/crash.pngDespite a consensus expecting US disposable income to grow by 0.2% in July, it fell by 0.1% – for the first time in six months. Having endured the jobless recovery, it looks like Americans might now be in for the cashless recovery.

In Russia, the economy is rapidly weakening: inflation is high, the ruble is weak, interest rates are climbing, and disposable incomes have dropped.

Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level since November 2009 this August, as analysts warned that price growth in the currency bloc is “worryingly low”. “This is yet another bad indicator of the health of the eurozone economy”, said Luke Bartholomew, of Aberdeen Asset Management. Give that man a kupee doll.

Meanwhile, Italy – the country long targeted by The Slog as the real European basket case – saw its consumer prices drop by the most since records began. It’s the eurozone’s third-largest economy…and so firmly entrenched in recession, prices fell at twice the expected rate.

In the UK, retail behemoth Tesco has issued another profit warning, and its intention to slash the dividend by 75%. That’s a very big number indeed, and the company’s bland statement blaming “challenging” trading conditions cannot hide the reality: Tesco is losing out bigtime to the bottom-rung discounters, particularly Lidl. Every Lidl helps, as they say….but this sort of share loss and growth doesn’t happen during an economic recovery.

Neither does a stalled housing market. It is quickly becoming clear that, despite British Chancellor George Osborne’s Help to Buy scam, UK house prices have stagnated: more than normal numbers of sales are falling through due to nervous buyers in the residential property market. UK values edged up by just 0.1% from July to August for the second month in a row. Vendors in England and Wales got around 96% of their asking price in August – a third fall: if that level drops to 94%, sector analysts say price drops will accelerate.

Global manufacturing output continues to engage reverse gear, as a result of which mining giants are staring at a $US30bn slump in revenue during the next 12 months. The price of iron ore has collapsed some 36% during 2014.

Even those famous O’Neill Brics are somewhat out of true. The Brazilian economy was this afternoon declared officially to be in recession – something of a bummer for Dilma Rousseff’s re-election bid.

Before these latest developments, dear Reader, you heard that German gdp shrank by 0.2%, the French economy flatlined for the second quarter running, in China an spectrum of indicators suggested faltering growth, and falling energy demand was beginning to make the Russian economy look not so much sick as poorly.

And how, pray, have the markets, bourses and other misleading outcomes reacted?

The Dow Jones was flat. The FTSE was up 0.2%. The French CAC 40 edged 0.34% higher. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.08% to 5,629. The European Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.42%. The German DAX rose 0.22%

They’re coming to take us away haha/ They’re coming to take us away/To the funny farm/Where life is beautiful all the time

Great stuff, Ward: 6.30 pm BST on a Friday is the perfect aperture for this kind of bad news. Ed

Earlier at The Slog: All aboard for the Trojan Horse to BUPA

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

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Inside the Diner

Quote from: azozeo on Today at 05:17:09 PMQuote from: RE on Today at 05:04:57 PMIMHO, it will be a Cold Day in HELL when El Tru...

Hello everyone, in this segment , client find himself as an observer/ creator being watching the earth ascension at this time

Quote from: RE on Today at 05:04:57 PMIMHO, it will be a Cold Day in HELL when El Trumpo resigns, for any reason.  It's not in his personality type.  We're les...

IMHO, it will be a Cold Day in HELL when El Trumpo resigns, for any reason.  It's not in his personality type.  We're less than a year away from the new election anyhow.  He's going to get be...

Recent Facebook Posts

Evacuation orders lifted after Palisades Fire leaves 2 injured and burns at least 40 acres in Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Fire Department ordered mandatory evacuations Monday as a fire ripped across a hillside in the affluent Pacific Palisades area,..

4 weeks ago

US troops pelted with rotten fruit and stones as they leave Syria – video

People have thrown rotten fruit and stones at US troops as they left Syria in armed vehicles, with one man appearing to shout: ‘You liars!’..

4 weeks ago

Corporate America's Second War With the Rule of Law

Corporate America’s Second War With the Rule of Law- Uber, Facebook, and Google are increasingly behaving like the law-flouting financial empires..

4 weeks ago

Photos from Rafael Nadal's Spanish wedding show a reception fit for tennis royalty

From Business Insider:

4 weeks ago

The best toothpaste for kids

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4 weeks ago

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

The mosque of the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of [...]

Prosecutors in Sweden have dropped an investigatio [...]

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 01:26:02 AMQuote fro [...]

Diner Newz Feeds

  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
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Who they Are...[img]https://scontent.forf1-2.fna.f [...]

Doomstead Diner Daily November 19The Diner Daily i [...]

[img]https://scontent.forf1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0 [...]

Quote from: UnhingedBecauseLucid on March 18, 2019 [...]

CleanTechnicaSupport CleanTechnica’s work via dona [...]

QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

The mosque of the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of [...]

Prosecutors in Sweden have dropped an investigatio [...]

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 01:26:02 AMQuote fro [...]

Scientists have unlocked the power of gold atoms b [...]

Quote from: azozeo on August 14, 2019, 10:41:33 AM [...]

Wisconsin Bill Would Remove Barrier to Using Gold, [...]

Under extreme conditions, gold rearranges its atom [...]

The cost of gold futures on the Comex exchange inc [...]

Time for another Bloody Mary!   RE [...]

Kicking off with the death of the Marlboro Man.RE[ [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

Politicians’ Privilege By Cognitive Dissonance     Imagine for a moment you work for a small or medi [...]

Shaking the August Stick By Cognitive Dissonance     Sometime towards the end of the third or fourth [...]

Empire in Decline - Propaganda and the American Myth By Cognitive Dissonance     “Oh, what a tangled [...]

Meanderings By Cognitive Dissonance     Tis the Season Silly season is upon us. And I, for one, welc [...]

The Brainwashing of a Nation by Daniel Greenfield via Sultan Knish blog Image by ElisaRiva from Pixa [...]

Event Update For 2019-11-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2019-11-16http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2019-11-15http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2019-11-14http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

Event Update For 2019-11-13http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.html Th [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

MbS, the personification of the age-old pre-revolutionary scenario in which an expiring regime attem [...]

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Sustainability

  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

Waterboarding Flounder"Serious oxygen loss between 100 and 600-meter depths is expected to cover 59–80% of the ocean [...]

Of Warnings and their Ripple Effects"We need wooden ships, char-crete buildings, bamboo bicycles, moringa furniture, and hemp cloth [...]

"Restoring normal whale activity to the oceans would capture the CO2 equivalent of 2 billion tr [...]

Ukrainian Rhapsody"Our future will be more about artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and non-state actors tha [...]

LeBron’s Chinese Troll Mobs"In the 36 hours after James’ delete, a troll mob with bot support sent a flame tsunami at the [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

What extinction crisis? Believe it or not, there are still climate science deniers out there. And th [...]

My new book, Abolish Oil Now, will talk about why the climate movement has failed and what we can do [...]

A new climate protest movement out of the UK has taken Europe by storm and made governments sit down [...]

The success of Apollo 11 flipped the American public from skeptics to fans. The climate movement nee [...]

Today's movement to abolish fossil fuels can learn from two different paths that the British an [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

Egypt runs seriously short of water just as their pop gets towards 150m Bob Geldof organizes another [...]

The point is that if we want to deal with energy issues, we have to deal with wealth. Don, that [...]

Entropy and steroids will get us all in the end. https://pics.me.me/then-ill-be-back-now-oh-my-back- [...]

Perhaps more clarity... Somebody recently produced a graph of energy consumption on the globe. But i [...]

Yep, it is not a problem, but a predicament---- The issues we are discussing here are not even in th [...]

For those safe from the rising seas, the ocean acidification will fcuk you up instead [...]

Here's an article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imo-shipping-factbox/factbox-imo-2020-a-m [...]

What is the shift away from bunker fuels? [...]

Yeah, when the water heater goes out the day after you just put new tires on one of the cars, etc... [...]

I join the chorus in welcoming you back. Any thoughts on how the shift away from bunker fuel on Janu [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

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Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

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Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

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Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

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SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

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Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

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Merry Doomy Christmas

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Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

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Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

The effect of urbanization on microclimatic conditions is known as “urban heat islands”. [...]

Forecasting extreme precipitations is one of the main priorities of hydrology in Latin America and t [...]

The objective of this work is the development of an automated and objective identification scheme of [...]