Earthquakes

Italian Earthquakes & Silly Climate Comments

youtube-Logo-2gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Ugo Bardi

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Cassandra's Legacy on August 26, 2016

cassandra_retouched

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

The earthquake in Italy and the silliest comment ever received about climate change

 

 

It is hard to take precaution against events that are difficult or impossible to predict. That holds for all kinds of "systemic shocks" which include earthquakes, economic crises, climate-related events, and more. 
 

Italy may be an especially vulnerable place for earthquakes. It is a country located in a highly seismic zone where a large number of  buildings have been erected just by piling up bricks, without worrying too much about safety. The results can be seen in the earthquake of a few days ago and in several other earthquakes of the past decades. (see the image above, source). But, if Italy is a bad place in terms of precautions against seismic events, it is normal that everywhere large earthquakes strike, the damage is enormous. Even Japan, although a country that places a lot of attention on earthquake safety, was badly hit by the 2011 tsunami and by the 1995 earthquake near Kobe.

The discussion about the recent earthquake in Italy raised up some comments on my Italian blog, one of which I found especially silly. Summarizing it, it said, "If earthquakes cannot be predicted, how can you pretend to predict climate change? We should just wait and see."

I think that the logic of this comment needs to be deconstructed; at least it is further evidence that human beings are not rational creatures. But it also raises an interesting point about the predictability of climate change. Much of the debate on climate turns around the often raised objection against the need of doing something that says, "if you can't predict exactly what's going to happen, then we should just sit and watch". Obviously, nobody would even dream to raise such an objection against reinforcing buildings against earthquakes, although in practice the idea is often resisted. Nor, anyone would maintain that you shouldn't wear seat belts in your car because you can't predict exactly when an accident will occur.

So, why is the debate on climate change so special? In one sense, it is the sheer vastness of the problem. While you can always think that the next earthquake will strike somewhere else, there is no escape from climate change: it affects the whole planet and that surely makes people tend to react by disregarding even the most elementary rules of logic. In another sense, it I think that the problem is in the very concept of "predictions". Geologists know a lot about earthquakes. but they have wisely abstained from trying to make predictions about them. Climatologists, instead, have made a big effort to develop predictive tools and they keep publishing diagrams telling us what temperatures we should expect for 2050 or 2100. That has led to a heated debate about the validity of the models which, as all models, can only be approximated (the map is not the territory).

Don't make me say that there is anything wrong in climate models. They are sophisticated, physics-based tools, perfectly valid within the assumptions that they make. There is, however, a problem. Climate change and seismic phenomena are, at the most basic level, very similar in the sense that they are both about the accumulation of energy in a reservoir. Geological faults cause the accumulation of elastic energy in the crust. Greenhouse gases cause the accumulation of thermal energy in the atmosphere and in the oceans.

Now, it is known that the release of elastic energy in the crust is not a linear phenomenon that generates sudden and catastrophic events. How about the release of thermal energy in the atmosphere/hydrosphere system? Mostly, we tend to think that it is a linear phenomenon: higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause rising temperatures and, indirectly, rising sea levels. But, unfortunately, that's not the whole story and it cannot be.

Complex systems tend to react to forcings in strongly non-linear ways, something that I termed the "Seneca Effect". And the rising temperatures may create plenty of sudden catastrophes when linked with the other elements of the ecosphere and also of the human econosphere. Just think of the effect of a sudden increase in the sea levels on the world's economy, largely based on marine transportation. And think about the effects on agriculture: much of the recent turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East may be seen as a non-linear reaction to rising temperatures and droughts.

But the most worrisome sudden transition related to greenhouse warming is known as the "runaway greenhouse" or the "Venus catastrophe;" the planetary equivalent of a major earthquake; something like what happened to the city of Amatrice, in Italy, completely razed down a few days ago. Of course, we may say that such a transition is "sudden" only in terms of a different time scale in comparison to earthquakes, but it may still be rapid enough to cause gigantic damage. We don't know for sure if such a catastrophe can occur on the Earth but, according to some recent studies, it seems to be possible. And make no mistake: a runaway greenhouse effect is not just a hotter earth, it involves the extinction of the biosphere.

In the end, the main problem of this whole story is that we don't know how to convince people about the risks related to non-linear phenomena, earthquakes, climate change and the like. Should we emphasize the risk? That has the unwanted effect that people tend to run away plugging their ears and singing "la-la-la." Or should we sweeten the pill and tell them that there is nothing to be really worried about; just a few minor adjustments and everything will be fine. That has the effect that nobody is doing anything, surely not enough. Will we ever find the right strategy?

 

 

 

Is Japan Breaking Apart…LITERALLY?

youtube-Logo-2gc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Michael Snyder

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on The Economic Collapse on April 17, 2016

Earthquake

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

Kyushu Earthquakes

Dozens Of Large Earthquakes Strike As Speculation Mounts That Japan’s Southern Island May Split

Over the past 48 hours, our planet has been hit by literally dozens of earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or greater, and scientists are acknowledging that what is taking place is highly unusual.  This strange shaking began toward the end of last week when the globe was struck by five major earthquakes over the space of just two days, and over the weekend the seismic activity just continued to escalate.  Very early on Saturday, Japan’s southern island of Kyushu was hit by a magnitude 7.3 earthquake, and on Saturday night a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck off Ecuador’s Pacific coast.  It was the worst earthquake that Ecuador had experienced since 1979, and it was followed by at least 163 aftershocks.  Unfortunately, there are indications that what we have seen so far may be just the beginning.

Because the Ecuador earthquake was bigger, it is getting most of the headlines at the moment, but the truth is that what is going on in Japan is potentially far more dangerous.

Over the past week, Japan’s southern Island of Kyushu has been rocked by a series of devastating quakes, including two major ones in less than 48 hours.  The following comes from the Guardian

A second major earthquake in less than two days has shaken Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, with at least 34 people thought to have been killed, about 1,500 injured and more feared buried after building collapses and landslides.

The 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck at about 1.30am on Saturday, waking people across the island – including the thousands already in crisis centres. It caused widespread damage, with several landslides and a village evacuated over fears a dam might burst.

The mainstream media in the United States is using the term “landslides” to describe what has happened all over Kyushu, but the truth is that in many instances it would be far more accurate to say that “giant cracks” or “vast chasms” have formed.  The geography of Japan’s southern island has been fundamentally transformed, and this is beginning to cause huge concerns.  Here is more from the Guardian

One major landslide tore open a mountainside in Minamiaso village in Kumamoto prefecture, destroying a key bridge that could cut off food and other relief transport to the worst-hit area.

Another landslide hit a road, collapsing a house that fell down a ravine. In another part of the village, houses were left hanging precariously at the edge of a huge hole.

I want to show you a map which comes directly from the U.S. Geological Survey.  This map shows all of the earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater that have hit Japan’s southern island over the past week.  As you look at this map, do you see a pattern?…

Kyushu Earthquakes

The dozens of earthquakes that have hit Japan’s southern island over the past week appear to form something of a straight line that divides the island in two.  Many are now speculating that geological forces are beginning to tear Kyushu in half, and if that is true, the earthquake activity that we have seen in Japan so far is probably just the tip of the iceberg.

We could potentially be talking about an event that could ultimately have far more of an impact on Japan than the tsunami of 2011.  By the time it is all said and done, entire cities could be wiped off the map and millions upon millions of Japanese citizens could be displaced.

Already, the seismic activity that has rocked Kyushu is having quite an impact on the Japanese economy

Earlier today Toyota was one of many Japanese companies to announce that it will suspend most car production across Japan as a result of critical supply chain disruptions caused by the recent destructive earthquake and numerous aftershocks. All of the major assembly lines will be shut down across its four directly-run plants, and Toyota will be halting production in stages at other group companies as well.

According to the Nikkei Asian Review, most of the Toyota group in Japan will be effectively shut down through at least the end of this upcoming week, with a production loss of as many as 50,000 vehicles, including brands such as Prius, Lexus, and Land Cruiser.

Our planet resembles something of a giant cracked egg, and the enormous tectonic plates that we are all living on are constantly in motion.  So if Japan’s southern island is in the process of slowly splitting in half, that shouldn’t exactly be a surprise.  After all, scientists assure us that Los Angeles and San Francisco will be directly next to one another someday.

And it isn’t just Japan that we need to be concerned about.  All along the “Ring of Fire”, seismic activity is increasing, and this has many of the experts completely puzzled.  The following comes from an excellent piece by Alvin Conway

This has continued to baffle many of the world’s leading geologists, who still attest the rise in the number of large earthquakes is merely a random natural occurrence. For instance, the number of large earthquakes doubled in 2014. However, here’s what scientists had to say about it: “If you think there have been more earthquakes than usual this year, you’re right. A new study finds there were more than twice as many big earthquakes in the first quarter of 2014 as compared with the average since 1979.

We have recently experienced a period that has had one of the highest rates of great earthquakes ever recorded,” said lead study author Tom Parsons, a research geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Menlo Park, California.

If you are familiar with my work, then you already know that I believe that we have entered a period of time during which we will see seismic activity on a scale that none of us have ever experienced before.

This great shaking will combine with other factors such as financial collapse, geopolitical instability and civil unrest to produce what many have described as a “perfect storm”.  Life as we know it is in the process of fundamentally changing, and right now we are only in the very early chapters of this change.

Unfortunately, most people are ignoring the warnings and will continue to ignore them until it is far too late.

 

 

 

 

What is Driving Climate Change?

Global-Warming-Climate-Changegc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 31, 2016

WHAT IS DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE?

coal-pollution1   OR IS IT   heat-earth 

OR IS IT BOTH?

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

A few weeks ago I got taken to task by a long time Diner (JD) for my position on the underlying cause for Climate Change, which resurfaced again with the launch of our new series on Diner YouTube, Weather Gone Wild .  The dispute is over what the primary driver for Climate Change is, whether it comes from Anthropogenic Causation driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions, or whether there are Geotectonic Forces at work that are driving the climate change?

denialThat Climate Change is not in fact underway is only denied by the most recalcitrant of Denialists, although there are still a significant number of them.  However, currently most Amerikans do accept that climate change is underway.

According to a Study by Yale University:

  • There has been an increase in the proportion of Americans who believe global warming is not happening (23%, up 7 percentage points since April 2013).
  • But about two in three Americans (63%) believe global warming is happening, a number that has been consistent since spring 2013.
  • The proportion of Americans who say they “don’t know” whether or not global warming is happening has dropped 6 points – from 20% to 14% – since spring of 2013.
  • About half of Americans (51%) say they are “somewhat” (38%) or “very worried” (15%) about global warming.
  • Fewer than half of Americans (38%) believe they personally will be harmed a “moderate amount” or a “great deal” by global warming.
  • By contrast, majorities believe that global warming will harm future generations of people (65%) and plant and animal species (65%).
  • About four in 10 say they feel “helpless” (43%), “disgusted” (42%), or “sad” (40%) when thinking about global warming.
  • By contrast, four in ten (42%), say they feel “hopeful” about the subject.

Miami-floodJust about everyone everywhere thse days is experiencing some kind of "Wacky Weather", Floods, Droughts, Snowstorms etc that don't fit the profile of what "normal" was 20 years ago.  They don't necessarily accept that their lifestyles are the cause of this though, and even if they do they are generally unwilling or unable to stop burning fossil fuels.  If you spent the last 20 years paying on your mortgage on a McMansion 20 miles from where you work (assuming you still have a job), HTF do you stop burning fossil fuels?  No other practical way to heat the McMansion, there are not enough trees on your 1/4 acre plot of land to do that, for more than a year anyhow.  No other practical way to get to work, since there is generally no Public Transportation from the typical subdivision into the typical work centers.  At best, you still need the car to do the Last Mile to the local Light Rail station, but this assumes that your job at the other end is ALSO within a mile of another Light Rail station.  Often not the case since many jobs are in Biz Parks that are themselves set up far from the central metro area a light rail system might serve.

pack_of_harvestersAlso close to impossible is to stop buying the products of industrialization, from the clothes you wear to the food you eat.  To provide these items to a population of 7.2B people with the current infrastructure requires burning tons of fossil fuels, not to mention their use as fertilizers and in fibers like Nylon, Polyester and Rayon.  Just about no piece of woven clothing nowadays does not have these fibers in the mix.  "All Wool" or "All Cotton' is pretty hard to come by, and quite pricy if you can find it.  So it's quite difficult to step off the fossil fuel economy no matter what you think is the primary driver for Climate Change.

Once you grasp this fact of life, precisely what is the Primary Driver here is not really that important, because in either case we can expect that Climate Change will continue unabated, and in fact probably accelerate moving forward here.  The issue JD brought up is that by presenting another possible driver for climate change, this will make it less possible to encourage people to "change their ways", burn less fossil fuels and stop pitching so much CO2 up into the atmosphere.  That may or may not be true, but it's not a reason to stop investigating the problem and trying to ferret out what is really occurring here.

By pitching out the Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer theory, I am calling into question "received wisdom" from the Climate Science community, which is firmly entrenched in the idea that Climate Change is entirely anthropogenic in nature.  WTF am I to offer up alternate hypothesis here?  I'm no James Hansen of course.  I'm just a curious guy with a decent science education looking at the problem from my own perspective.  Anyone is free to debate my conclusions here on the Diner, but as of yet nobody has taken up the challenge.  Not Jim Hansen, not Guy McPherson, nobody.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f0/Tin_foil_hat_2.pngThe other problem of course with flying in the face of conventional wisdom is that you get labelled as a "Tin Foiler".  Particularly if you start to speculate on causation, which is pretty much entirely unprovable.  I figure though that Copernicus was probably considered "Tin Foil" in his time, and Giordano Bruno was DEFINITELY considered Tin Foil, in fact he got Burned at the Stake for hs beliefs.

http://www.quotesdata.com/Giordano_Bruno_quotes.jpgSo, I soldier on here, hopefully not to get Burned at the Stake (even just metaphorically) because I present an alternative hypothesis for the primary driver for Climate Change.

At this point though, I do want to REINFORCE that although I believe there are Geotectonic forces at work here, the burning of fossil fuels and ejecting gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere also has a significant effect, and if we expect to keep this from completely spinning out of control, it is imperative to put a LID on carbon emissions.  This is not so easy to do of course, considering our entire industrial culture is based on burning as much as we can, as fast as we can.

In both the cases of Geotectonic Causation and Anthropogenic Causation, we are faced with Wicked Problems.  In the case of Geotectonics, there is no technology available whatsoever to keep Earthquakes from going off or Volcanoes from blowing, despite what some HAARP conspiracy theorists might argue.  In the case of Anthropogenic Causation, there is simply no way to get 1 Billion cars off the road and 1000s of coal fired electric plants offline globally on a voluntary basis.  Too much of the infrastructure we have already built to support 7.2 Billion people depend on the transportation and the electric power to run the lights, sewage treatment plants, water pumping stations etc.  there is no single Planetary Goobermint that can dictate this by fiat, and even if there was it would probably be deposed if they tried.

On the Upside here as far as Anthropogenic causation is concerned, we WILL stop burning copious quantities of fossil fuels, but not because of a voluntary choice to do so.  We'll stop because it is no longer economically feasible to continue to run the system on ever increasing levels of debt.  We already see the slowdown occurring here as places like Europe drop precipitously in oil consumption

https://www.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/eth-news/news/2014/09/oil-energy-realities-for-western-europe-part-3-outlook-2030/_jcr_content/news_content/fullwidthimage_0/image.imageformat.lightbox.129094543.png

and considering the implosion of the Chinese markets over the last week, they won't be far behind here either.  Already their Steel and Concrete plants are shutting down and their credit fueled Bubble is going the way of the dinosaur.  So we can look forward to a day when fossil fuel burning is a fraction of what it is today, and probably in the not too distant future also.

There is however a lag time, and even with a rapid shutdown of the fossil fuel industry and reduced burning of FFs, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and AGT will continue to rise for the next 40 years, just on this effect alone.  If it is true that there is a Geotectonic component to the rise in AGT, then that is baked in the cake for so long as there continue to be elevated frequency and amplitude of global earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

So under jst about any plausible scenario for the next 50 years, we will see elevating AGT, unless there is some Negative Feedback Loop that we are as yet unaware of that slows, stops or reverses it.  In terms of doing something about this, beyond cutting back as much as possible on burning fossil fuels there really is not much else that can be done.  I certainly am not in favor of Geoengineering solutions, given the track record of Homo Sap in terms of applying technological solutions, you're bound to get Blowback that's even worse than the original problem.  Creating ever more complex solutions tends to require still more complex solutions later in a never ending upward spiral, all requiring more and more energy to implement.  Energy is precisely what we don't have to continue such a process any longer.

What we should be doing is two-fold:

1- Attemp to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels in a controlled descent from a high per capita energy consumption society.  An immediate cessation of burning fossil fuels would kill off more people faster and be worse for the environment than a controlled descent.  The wars which would result and the disease that would spread will be more catastrophic sooner than the oceans can rise to inundate all the coastal cities.

2- Begin preparing for life in a world with a higher AGT regime.  Other mammals have survived during global thermal maxima periods much warmer than 2C above current baseline.  I see no reason in principle Homo Sap cannot survive this also, although clearly not in the numbers currently walking the Earth.

For those of you who wish to take me to task for this article, please first review the accompanying vid which should answer many questions and I won't have to repeat myself.  There is a comprehensive slide show presentation and explanation of the Geotectonic problems we are faced with acompanying the explanation, which I render in Academuc Style worthy of a lecture at Cambridge or Harvard. OK, maybe not.  lol. In any event, it should answer many of the questions that have been put to me over the years since publishing the original Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer article.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ring of Fire AWAKENS

Earthquakegc2reddit-logoOff the keyboard of Michael Snyder

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on The Economic Collapse on November 8, 2015

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/The-Ring-Of-Fire-Photo-from-Wikipedia.png

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

Violent Shaking Along The Ring Of Fire Continues A Progression Of Disasters That Began In September

Have you noticed that seismic activity along the Ring of Fire appears to be dramatically increasing?  According to Volcano Discovery, 39 volcanoes around the world have recently erupted, and 32 of them are associated with the Ring of Fire.  This includes Mt. Popocatepetl which sits only about 50 miles away from Mexico City’s 18 million inhabitants.  If you are not familiar with the Ring of Fire, it is an area roughly shaped like a horseshoe that runs along the outer perimeter of the Pacific Ocean.  Approximately 90 percent of all earthquakes and approximately 75 percent of all volcanic eruptions occur along the Ring of Fire.  Just within the last 24 hours, we have witnessed a 4.4, a 5.4 and a 5.7 earthquake in Alaska, a 6.8 earthquake in Chile and 20 earthquakes in Indonesia of at least magnitude 4.3.  And as you will see below, this violent shaking along the Ring of Fire seems to continue a progression of major disasters that began back during the month of September.

For whatever reason, our planet suddenly seems to be waking up.  Unfortunately, the west coast of the United States is one of the areas where this is being felt the most.  The little city of San Ramon, California is about 45 miles east of San Francisco, and over the past several weeks it has experienced a record-breaking 583 earthquakes

A total of 583 small earthquakes have shaken San Ramon, California, in the last three weeks or so – more than five times the record set 12 years ago, according to the latest US Geological Survey updates.

“It’s the swarm with the largest number of total earthquakes in San Ramon,” said USGS scientist David Schwartz, who is more concerned about the size of quakes than he is the total number of them. Still, the number tops the previous record set in 2003, when 120 earthquakes hit over 31 days, with the largest clocking in at a magnitude of 4.2.

Could this be a prelude to a major seismic event in California?

We shall see what happens.

Meanwhile, records are being shattered in the middle part of the country as well.

For instance, the state of Oklahoma has already set a brand new yearly record for earthquakes

The state recorded its 587th earthquake of 3.0 magnitude or higher early this week, breaking the previous record of 585. That record was set for all of 2014, meaning that Oklahoma has now had more 3.0 magnitude or higher earthquakes so far in 2015 than it did in all of 2014. So far this year, E&E News reports, Oklahoma’s averaged 2.5 quakes each day, a rate that, if it continues, means the state could see more than 912 earthquakes by the end of this year.

Oklahoma has also experienced 21 4.0 magnitude or greater earthquakes so far this year — an increase over last year, which saw 14.

And just over this past weekend there was a very disturbing series of earthquakes in the state

Starting with a magnitude-4.1 temblor at 5:11 a.m. close to the Oklahoma-Kansas border, the region experienced a series of six earthquakes within a 75-minute period Saturday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey reported on its website.

The largest earthquake Saturday morning was the 4.1, which had an epicenter nine miles northwest of Medford, Okla., 59 miles southwest of Wichita.

That was followed by five more quakes near Medford with magnitudes of 2.5, 2.8, 2.5, 3.1 and 2.9 – the last of which came at 6:24 a.m.

A seventh earthquake – this one a magnitude-4.2 temblor – was recorded at 12:29 p.m., 10 miles north-northwest of Medford.

So why aren’t more Americans alarmed that these records are being broken?

We are seeing things that we have never seen before, and I believe that it will soon get even worse.

And this dramatic increase in seismic activity that we are now seeing appears to fit into a larger pattern of major disasters that we have been witnessing over the past couple of months.

As we approached the end of the summer, all of a sudden massive wildfires erupted all across the western third of the country.  According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the only time in U.S. history when wildfires had burned more acres by the end of October was during the record-setting year of 2006.

In 2015, a lot of these wildfires have really been threatening highly populated areas.  I know, because at one point a major fire came within about 10 miles of my own house.  Since the beginning of August, Barack Obama has made an astounding 25 disaster declarations related to fires, and by the end of September the horrible fires that were threatening key areas of the state of California were making headlines all over the world.

Then as we got to the very end of the month of September, a new kind of disaster began to take center stage.  As I wrote about just recently, the storm that would later became known as Hurricane Joaquin developed into a tropical depression on September 28th.

Even though that hurricane never made landfall in the United States, moisture from that storm caused a tremendous amount of chaos along the east coast.

The governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, said that it was the most rain that some areas of her state had witnessed “in a thousand years”, and it is being projected that the economic damage that was done by all of the flooding “will probably be in the billions of dollars”.

Shortly after the flooding in South Carolina, a massive storm dumped an enormous amount of rain on southern California.  Because that area had been experiencing severe drought for so long, all of that rain caused tremendous flooding and massive mudslides.  Rivers of mud literally several feet thick completely stopped traffic along many major roads across the region.  If you got caught in those rivers of mud, you were lucky to get out with your life.  In fact, authorities pulled one dead man out of a vehicle that got completely buried by mud several days after the storms had passed.  It took them that long to finally get to him.

The middle of the country was not spared either.  Hurricane Patricia ended up being one of the strongest hurricanes ever measured, and the remnants of that storm dumped an incredible amount of rain on the state of Texas.  There was so much flooding that a train was literally knocked off the tracks by the water.  And about a week after that there was more flooding in the state that caused at least six deaths.

Overall, it has really been a bad couple of months for major disasters, and this sequence of events seems to have begun during the month of September.

What killed the Dinosaurs?

Off the keyboard of Ugo Bardi

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Resource Crisis on July 8, 2015

Visit the New Diner News Page for Daily Updates from around the Collapse Blogosphere

(hint: probably not what you used to think)

 
In Walt Disney's movie "Fantasia" (1940), dinosaurs were shown as dying in a hot and dry world, full of active volcanoes. Recent discoveries show that something like that might really have happened and that the idea that the dinosaurs were killed by an asteroidal impact appears to be incompatible with the available data. Rather, it seems that the dinosaurs died out because of the global warming resulting from the emission of large amounts of greenhouse gases from volcanoes. In several respects, it is not unlike what's happening today to us.

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner


I know what you are thinking: these silly scientists; first they tell us that an asteroid killed the dinosaurs, now they tell us that it is not true. So, how can we believe them when they tell us that humans are causing global warming? 

On this, I have to tell you something: science is a mighty truth-seeking juggernaut. Yes, individual scientists are not immune from mistakes, political biases, and human failures, but, on the whole, science manages to filter away bad ideas and keep the good ones. The case of the extinction of the dinosaurs is a beautiful example of how well the mechanism works.

As you will read in the article below, the non avian dinosaurs, it seems, went away not with an asteroidal bang, but with a volcanic whisper. They were killed over several tens of thousands of years by the global warming created by the emission of gases from the giant basaltic eruption known as the "Deccan Traps", today located on the Indian subcontinent. To be sure, the discussion is far from being settled and many scientists still favor the impact theory (e.g. Peter Ward and Joe Kirschvink in their recent book "A new history of life"). Personally, I am no specialist in these matters but, if I did my homework well (and I think I did), my impression is that the data overwhelmingly favor the volcanic hypothesis over the asteroidal one.

So, no asteroid killer? If that's the case, how could science make such a mistake? The answer is that there was no "mistake". There was just the gradual build-up of data and models that led to a better and better understanding of the mechanisms of mass extinctions in the earth's past and of the specific events that led to the so-called "K/T" mass extinction that involved the demise of the non-avian dinosaurs. So, it is true that there was a large asteroidal impact occurring approximately at the K/T boundary. But whether this was the actual cause of the mass extinction always remained a hypothesis. It was only the spectacular character of this hypothesis that led it to become so popular with the general public. But popularity in the media is not the same as scientific certainty and, after decades of work, science is gradually arriving at a consensus on this matter, just as it has arrived to a consensus on climate change. Science, unlike politics and fashion, doesn't go in cycles, it moves forward.

 

The real causes of the extinction of the dinosaurs

by Aldo Piombino

Aldo Piombino is an independent researcher collaborating with the Department of Earth Sciences of the University of Florence. 

It is widely accepted by the public opinion and by many scientists that the Dinosaurs went extinct because of a meteorite impact that occurred along the Southern Mexico coasts, along the coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

Well, this is not true. The “Impactists,” those who propose the impact theory, have been successful for a while in having a stronger voice than their opponents. But, in March 2013 a meeting at the Natural History Museum in London, (acts are published in the Geological Society of America Special publication n. 505) left no doubts: the killer of the dinosaurs was not the Yucatan impact, but the gases and other volatiles that came from the Deccan Traps activity, in which some hundreds of thousands of cubic kilometers of magma were produced in a few tens of thousands of years.

There is multiple proof that the Earth system has seen similar conditions causing mass extinctions well before the dramatic K/T event that killed the non-avian dinosaurs. A similar volcanic activity occurred (and it is blamed for) the mass extinction events of the late Devonian, the end Permian, end Triassic, end Cenomanian, end Paleocene, and others. From the end of the Devonian period, all the main boundaries of the Earth chronology correspond to similar volcanic activities, termed "large igneous provinces" (LIPs).

The first scientific ideas about the dinosaur extinction in the '30s were that they were wiped out because of a sudden warming of the Earth. This is well exposed in “Fantasia”, one of the masterpieces in the Walt Disney's production, in which we see great reptiles dying in a dry word, surrounded by a warm haze. In the 50's someone blamed a meteorite for the extinction: the cosmic fall would have triggered a sudden and violent atmospheric warming.

Global warming remained the best explanation since 1980, when the Berkeley team of Louis Alvarez found that all the K/T section known at that time (Gubbio in Italy, Stevns Klimt in Denmark and Woodside Creek in New Zealand, showed an anomalous spike in the Iridium content (5). So they proposed that a chondritic meteorite crashed on the Earth, triggering a long winter, a sort of “nuclear winter”. The Iridium, contained in the celestial body, had been released in the air and deposited on the ground and on the sea surface. This idea became immediately popular and scientists that didn't agree with the idea of the extraterrestrial origin of K/T event had troubles in having their voices being heard.

The 80's saw many scientists searching of the impact crater which was finally found in 1991, along the Yucatan coasts. The dimensions of the crater coincided with the hypothesis declared by the Berkeley team of a body with a 10 km diameter and the age of the collision was Late Cretaceous. But a few years later, Upper Maastrichtian sediments were found on top of the impact ejecta, thus refuting a precise K/T age of the event.

At the same time, scientists found that all the main extinction events, such as the End Permian and End Triassic extinctions, were simultaneous with the emplacement of huge basaltic series: the flood basalts, Large Igneous Provinces, and that the same activity occurred also at the K/T boudary (the large igneous province known as the Deccan Traps). Today, there are no doubts that the K/T extinction has been triggered by the gas emissions from the Deccan Traps. Recent studies of the palaeomagnetic declination registered in the lavas demonstrate that the emplacement of the second, and larger, phase of the activity lasted few tens of thousand years and not hundreds of thousands as it was supposed earlier on (1). The main elements that favor volcanic emissions as the cause of the mass extinction are the following

1. The Maastrichtian climatic evolution is clearly in tune with the pulses of the volcanic activity: the biotic crisis begun well before K/T and the impact occurred well after the beginning of the crisis.

2. According to the impact hypothesis, the K/T event has been a cold, dark moment because of the powders derived from the impact and of the fires ignited worldwide by hot ejecta. This cannot be true, because, instead, there exists compelling evidence that the last 50.000 years of the Cretaceous saw a sudden warming, triggered by the enormous CO2 emissions from Deccan traps; thus, it was not a cooling phase. It is true that, after the impact (between 150.000 and 100.000 years before the Mesozoic Era end) there was been a cooler stage, but this is an ordinary event in mass extinction dynamics, when they are triggered by huge volcanism, since they are always accompanied by strong sea level variation. In particular, the final stage is normally a marine transgression following a cooler period characterized by a huge sea level drop. These sea level drops are mainly triggered by the arrival of volcanic volatiles of the Large Igneous Province  in the stratosphere, thus enveloping the entire Earth and preventing much of the solar rays to arrive in the lower atmosphere. So, the K/T was mainly characterized by a warm climate because of the high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas.

3. The sudden extinction in microfossils such as Planktonic Foraminifera is reported where an upper Maastrichtian hiatus is not seen: the low sea level in the upper Maastrichtian before the latest 50.000 years of the stage in many areas (and above all in the Caribbean) resulted in a temporary stop of the sedimentation. Stratigraphic sections where marine sedimentation continued without a hiatus show a very gradual extinction pattern. This scenario fits very well with the volcanic trigger, like the other mass extinctions do, and does not fit with a punctual event like a meteorite impact.

4. The sea water acidity clearly originated by the high CO2 amount coming from the Deccan traps and the acidification began well before the impact. After the K/T acidity crisis, the system saw a partial recovery, but it was interrupted in early Danian, synchronous with a new, later, spike of volcanic activity in India. It is impossible that the asteroidal impact, alone, could have generated such a high amount of this gas; simply because it broke up rocks of the carbonate platform of Yucatan and, above all, the CO2 increase begun well before the impact

5. No one can say whether the dinosaurs were wiped off in a long or in a short time (3), but we must note that the youngest dinosaur fossils or footprints are almost 450.000 years older than K/T and now it is not known if this is due to a lack of fossils or if they became extinct well before the K/T.

6. The Iridium anomaly is probably best explained as the result of the Deccan volcanoes, generated by aerosol diffusion: similar anomalies occur in the volatiles of Kilauea and in Antarctica (2). These forms of volcanism are typical of intraplate volcanism. And, also, volatiles coming from the intraplate Piton de la Fournaise volcano, located over the mantle plume that originated Deccan Traps long ago, show the anomaly (4). Moreover the anomaly found by the Berkeley team in Gubbio begun well before the K/T boundary and vanishes for a long time interval before the final increase (5). How can Iridium came from the impact if his anomaly begins well before the event?

7. The microspherules that were found in the K/T sediments, for example in Denmark and in New Zealand, are of sedimentary origin and they are not the alteration of tektites coming from the impact. Moreover, also the occurrence of fullerenes doesn't necessarily imply fires triggered by the impact worldwide: charcoals are widespread in all upper Cretaceous sediments because of the occurrence of wildfires triggered by high levels of atmospheric Oxygen. The diffusion of the wildfires is one of the causes of the decline of Conifers and of the Angiosperm diffusion. During the latest Cretaceous period, wildfires increased at the highest level because of the worldwide warm and dry climate; these changes were triggered by volcanic emissions

8. Those who propose the impact theory say that a 3 meters thick level along the coast of the gulf of Mexico was deposited by the Tsunami triggered by the meteorite crash. This cannot be true: the level shows many hiatuses (demonstrated also by the occurrence of paleosoils showing bioturbation structures) and it has sedimented for a long time, some tens of hundreds years: it is the result of sedimentation during the low standing sea level before the earliest Maastrichtian transgression

9. Smectites are very common at the K/T boundary. They do not represent the alteration of the impact tektites, they show a huge volcanic signature and they have originated from Deccan traps. It's interesting that the smectite amount increases, replacing illite deposits, in 3 time intervals that are coeval with the 3 main phases of Deccan activity

10. It is evident that the epicenter of the geochemical and biotic crisis is placed in the indian region, as we can see in the Krishna – Godavari basin and in the Meghalaya area.

 

11. For the International Commission on Stratigraphy the K/T limit is defined if there is one of these characteristics: the Iridium spike, the extinction of all tipically Cretaceous planktonic foraminifera except the  Guembelitria Cretacea (a high acidity and low Oxygen resistant form), the occurrence of the first Danian foraminifera and a particular excursion of δ13C. The ejeta from the Yucatan crated are not considered as a diagnostic character for the K/T boundary, because the impact occurred some time before.

12. The δ13C excursion demonstrates a huge perturbation in the carbon cycle; it is diagnostic for a large igneous province and occurred in a similar way at the end of Permian and at the end of Triassic.

13. The 1783 eruption of the Laki volcano can be seen as a small scale simulation of what can happen during the emplacement of a many thousands cubic kilometers lava flow like the ones of a Large Igneous Province. With the Laki eruption, only 17 cubic kilometers of lavas were produced, but the eruption saw the highest registered mortality level in a century and a dry fog enveloped all Europe with widespread damage to agriculture.

In conclusion, the Deccan Traps fit better than meteorites as the trigger of the K/T event for all the geochemical, sedimentary and micropaleontological characteristics.

References

(1) Chenet et al., (2009) Determination of rapid Deccan eruptions across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary using paleomagnetic secular variation: 2. Constraints from analysis of eight new sections and synthesis for a 3500-m-thick composite section. Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 114, no. B6, B06103, pp. 1-38., 0.1029/2008JB005644
(2) Archibald J.D., (2014), What the dinosaur record says about extinction scenarios. Geological Society of America Special Papers 505, 213–224
(3) Olmez et al., (1986), Iridium emissions from Kilauea Volcano. Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth 91/B1, 653–663
(4) Toutain & Meyer (1989) Iridium‐bearing sublimates at a hot‐spot volcano (Piton De La Fournaise, Indian Ocean), Geophys. Res. Lett.16(12), 1391-1394
(5) Alvarez et al., 1980, Extraterrestrial causes for the Cretaceous – Tertiary extinction K/T Experimental results and theoretical interpretation. Science 268, 1095–1108

40 Volcanoes Are Erupting Right Now…

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on The Economic Collapse on May 14, 2015

Visit the New Diner News Page for Daily Updates from around the Collapse Blogosphere

2012WoodySuperVolcano

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

…and 34 Of Them Are Along The Ring Of Fire

You may not have noticed, but our planet is becoming increasingly unstable.  According to Volcano Discovery, 40 volcanoes around the globe are erupting right now, and only 6 of them are not along the Ring of Fire.  If that sounds like a very high number to you, that is because it is a very high number.  As I have written about previously, there were a total of 3,542 volcanic eruptions during the entire 20th century.  When you divide that number by 100, that gives you an average of about 35 volcanic eruptions per year.  So the number of volcanoes that are erupting right now is well above the 20th century’s average for an entire calendar year.  And of course we are witnessing a tremendous amount of earthquake activity as well.  Nepal was just hit by the worst earthquake that it had seen in 80 years, and scientists are telling us that the Himalayas actually dropped by an astounding 3 feet as a result of that one earthquake.  How much more does our planet have to shake before people start paying attention?

Of course the things that we have been seeing lately are part of a much larger long-term trend.  Seismic activity appears to have been getting stronger over the past few decades, and now things really seem to be accelerating.  The following is how one news source recently summarized what we have been witnessing…

If it seems like earthquakes and erupting volcanoes are happening more frequently, that’s because they are. Looking at global magnitude six (M6) or greater from 1980 to 1989 there was an average of 108.5 earthquakes per year, from 2000 to 2009 the planet averaged 160.9 earthquakes per year: that is a 38.9% increase of M6+ earthquakes in recent years. Unrest also seems to be growing among the world’s super-volcanoes. Iceland (which is home to some of the most dangerous volcanoes on the planet), Santorini in Greece, Uturuncu in Bolivia, the Yellowstone and Long Valley calderas in the U.S., Laguna del Maule in Chile, Italy’s Campi Flegrei – almost all of the world’s active super-volcanic systems are now exhibiting some signs of inflation, an early indication that pressure is building in these volcanic systems.

But of course most Americans are never going to care about any of this until it starts affecting them personally.

Well, perhaps they should start paying attention to the warning signs.  In recent weeks we have seen significant earthquakes in Michigan, Texas, Mississippi, California, Idaho And Washington.  In addition, it is being reported that pressure is building in dormant volcanoes in Arizona and California.  Just because we have not had a killer earthquake or a large volcanic eruption in the U.S. in recent years does not mean that it will always be that way.  Right now the entire planet appears to be waking up, and this especially seems to be true of the Ring of Fire.

If you are not familiar with the Ring of Fire, just imagine a giant ring that runs around the outer perimeter of the Pacific Ocean.  Approximately 90 percent of all earthquakes and approximately 75 percent of all volcanic eruptions occur within this area, and the entire west coast of North America is considered to be part of the Ring of Fire.

For so long, the west coast has been incredibly blessed not to have experienced a major seismic event.  But scientists tell us that it is only a matter of time.

And right now, just about every other part of the Ring of Fire is shaking violently.

For example, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake just hit Japan on Wednesday

A magnitude-6.8 earthquake that shook northeast Japan on Wednesday was an aftershock of the devastating 2011 quake that triggered a massive tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown.

“We consider this morning’s earthquake to be an aftershock of the 2011 Northeastern Pacific Earthquake,” said Yohei Hasegawa, an official at the Japanese meteorological agency.

The temblor, which struck just after 6 a.m. local time (5 p.m. ET Tuesday), was sparked by the Pacific tectonic plate “subducting,” or moving under, the main land plate, he added.

Hasegawa warned that more tremors may be on the way.

One Japanese expert is warning that Japan “might have entered an era of great earthquakes and volcanic eruptions“, and considering the immense devastation that the great earthquake and tsunami of 2011 caused, that is a very sobering assessment.

Meanwhile, a series of very strong earthquakes have struck Papua New Guinea recently as well.  The following comes from the Washington Post

A powerful earthquake rattled Papua New Guinea on Thursday, the fourth strong quake to hit the South Pacific island nation in a week. The temblor prompted officials to issue a local tsunami warning, but it was lifted shortly afterward with no reports of damage.

The 7.1-magnitude quake struck about 150 kilometers (94 miles) southwest of the town of Panguna on Bougainville Island at a depth of 23 kilometers (14 miles), the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

Once again, just because things have always been a certain way does not mean that they will always be that way.

As Americans, we are not accustomed to being concerned about major earthquakes and massive volcanic eruptions, but that could soon change in a big way.

The truth is that our planet and our sun are changing in ways that are unpredictable and that our scientists don’t completely understand.

For example, a recent LiveScience article discussed the fact that scientists are deeply puzzled by the fact that the magnetic field of our planet is getting weaker 10 times faster than previously believed…

Scientists already know that magnetic north shifts. Once every few hundred thousand years the magnetic poles flip so that a compass would point south instead of north. While changes in magnetic field strength are part of this normal flipping cycle, data from Swarm have shown the field is starting to weaken faster than in the past. Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought. As such, rather than the full flip occurring in about 2,000 years, as was predicted, the new data suggest it could happen sooner.

And in a previous article, I discussed how one scientist has discovered that activity on the sun is declining at a faster pace “than at any time in the last 9300 years” right now.

I don’t pretend to have all the answers for why these things are happening, but clearly some very unusual things are taking place.

So what do you think?

Do you believe that you know why our planet and our sun are experiencing such dramatic changes?

Japan Gets ONGED!

logopodcastOff the microphone of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Aired on the Doomstead Diner on October 10, 2014

https://www.neatoshop.com/images/product/52/2352/Welcome-to-the-Gong-Show_9240-l.jpg?v=9240

http://plnami.blob.core.windows.net/media/2014/02/chuckbarris0217.jpg

Discuss this Rant at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2014/10/vongfong_viirs_Iband5_7oct14_0431Z.png

Great Screen Saver!

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/uIdzVK9BioQ/hqdefault.jpg

Let’s Go Hiking!

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZMTUbD9Vins/0.jpg

It seemed like a good Parking Spot yesterday!

Onged Definition:

Having your society systematically destroyed by a combination of Natural and Man Made Disasters, Population Overshoot and Resource Depletion.

Snippet:

…All things considered, it’s a pretty quiet day today in the world of collapse, besides the fact the first Out of Africa case of Ebola transmitted in Spain to a local nurse, and the fact yet ANOTHER Super Typhoon is bearing down on the Nips, following just a week or so behind the path of PhanFone, this one called VongFong. The next one is sure to be HongKongLongDong. LOL.

This is another one of those Picture Perfect Cyclonic Storms that make great Screen Savers for the Doomophile TM, and it’s even bigger than Haiyan which devastated the Phillipines in 2013, which itself was a good deal larger than Katrina was.

So basically what you have here for the Nips is something an Order of Magnitude or so larger than the equivalent of NOLA being hit by Back-to-Back Katrinas. To be fair, the reason Katrina caused so much Havoc in NOLA is the city is at or below Sea Level in many places, so when the levees failed the water did not simply drain back out to sea, it had to be pumped back out, which took some time and plenty of fossil fuels to run the pumps.

The geography of Japan is a bit better for taking a Typhoon hit than New Orleans, it’s basically an archipelago of Volcanic Islands which rise fairly regularly from sea level up to the tops of Mt. Fuji and a few other choice Volcanoes currently getting more lively, including Mt. Ontake which blew off last week while numerous Hikers including Sum Dum Phuk and Wrong Dope Wrong Time are now missing, while the Nip rescue squads attempt to locate them before the next Typhoon rolls in…

For the rest, LISTEN TO THE RANT!!!

Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Arctic Oil and Hong Kong Riots

logopodcastOff the microphone of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Aired on the Doomstead Diner on September 28, 2014

Discuss this article at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

Snippet:

http://cdn.pjmedia.com/lifestyle/files/2013/09/duck-and-cover-drill.jpg…I’ll start today’s Rant with a personal story, we got a 6.2 magnitude Quake in Willow a couple of days ago, just about 80 miles or so from where I am located, which was the cause of much excitement and conversation around here, but very little in the way of damage. Preppers may have lost a few Pickle Jars off the shelves and a few paintings may have dropped off some walls, but not much more than that.

Still, it was the biggest Quake here since I moved to Alaska, and you definitely felt it. The cabin did some nice shaking for around 30 seconds or so. Kidz were in skule, and they got the opportunity to do a Duck & Cover Drill under their desks. There was enough time while it was going on for me to think, “Is this gonna get bigger? How long will it go?” Then it stopped.

For me, it gave me my first physical Benchmark feeling for what 6 on the Richter Scale feels like. It’s a logarithmic scale, so a 7 is 10X as severe, 8 100x etc. Anchorage did experience one of the few 9s ever recorded, a 9.2 in 1964, that is 1000X the 6 we just got. Yowza.

10X definitely would have caused damage in the cabin, and 100X would have brought it down for sure. 1000X is overkill here…

For the rest, LISTEN TO THE RANT!!!

Why The Earthquake Near San Francisco Is Just The Start Of The Shaking In California

Off the keyboard of Michael Snyder

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on The Economic Collapse Blog on August 24, 2014

Earthquake

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

Tectonic Plates - WikipediaIf you thought that the earthquake that struck northern California on Sunday was something, just wait until you see what is coming in the years ahead.  As you will read about below, we live at a time when earthquake activity is dramatically increasing.  This is especially true of the “Ring of Fire” which runs roughly along the outer perimeter of the Pacific Ocean.  Approximately 81 percent of all big earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire, and the entire west coast of the United States falls within the danger zone.  Over the past few years, we have seen huge earthquake after huge earthquake strike various areas along the Ring of Fire, but up until now the California coastline has mostly been spared.  However, there are indications that this may be about to change in a big way.

Early on Sunday, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake struck the heart of wine country.  It was the largest earthquake to hit northern California in 25 years.  More than 120 people were injured, scores of buildings were damaged and Governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency.

It is being projected that the economic loss from this earthquake will exceed a billion dollars.  Since the initial quake, there have been more than 60 aftershocks, and residents are very much hoping that the worst is over.  The following is how the damage caused by the earthquake was described by CNN

“Everything and everyone in Napa was affected by the quake. My house, along with everybody else’s, is a disaster. It looks like somebody broke in and ravaged the place, room by room.” said CNN iReporter Malissa Koven, who was awakened by the shaking at about 3:20 a.m.

“Anything and everything that could fall, did,” she said.

The damage in Napa is “fairly significant,” said Glenn Pomeroy, the CEO of the California Earthquake Authority, who surveyed the area Sunday afternoon.

“The downtown area is hardest hit, probably because of the age of construction down there,” Pomeroy said. In the residential areas, he is “seeing a lot of chimneys that’ve come crashing down.”

That sounds pretty bad, right?

But remember, this was only a 6.1 magnitude earthquake.  As Wikipedia explains, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake would be many times more powerful…

The Richter magnitude scale (also Richter scale) assigns a magnitude number to quantify the energy released by an earthquake. The Richter scale is a base-10 logarithmic scale, which defines magnitude as the logarithm of the ratio of the amplitude of the seismic waves to an arbitrary, minor amplitude.

As measured with a seismometer, an earthquake that registers 5.0 on the Richter scale has a shaking amplitude 10 times greater than that of an earthquake that registered 4.0, and thus corresponds to a release of energy 31.6 times greater than that released by the lesser earthquake.

And the earthquake that happened on Sunday would not even be worth comparing to an 8.0 or a 9.0 quake.  In fact, one study concluded that a 9.0 magnitude earthquake along the Cascadia fault could potentially produce a giant tsunami that would “wash away coastal towns”…

If a 9.0 earthquake were to strike along California’s sparsely populated North Coast, it would have a catastrophic ripple effect.

A giant tsunami created by the quake would wash away coastal towns, destroy U.S. 101 and cause $70 billion in damage over a large swath of the Pacific coast. More than 100 bridges would be lost, power lines toppled and coastal towns isolated. Residents would have as few as 15 minutes notice to flee to higher ground, and as many as 10,000 would perish.

Scientists last year published this grim scenario for a massive rupture along the Cascadia fault system, which runs 700 miles off shore from Northern California to Vancouver Island.

And when we think about “the Big One” hitting California, most of the time we think about southern California.  The most famous fault line in southern California is the San Andreas fault, but the truth is that many experts are far more concerned about the Puente Hills fault line.  According to one seismologist, that is the fault that would be most likely to “eat L.A.” and cause hundreds of billions of dollars in economic damage…

Video simulations of a rupture on the Puente Hills fault system show how energy from a quake could erupt and be funneled toward L.A.’s densest neighborhoods, with the strongest waves rippling to the west and south across the Los Angeles Basin.

According to estimates by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center, a massive quake on the Puente Hills fault could kill from 3,000 to 18,000 people and cause up to $250 billion in damage. Under this worst-case scenario, people in as many as three-quarters of a million households would be left homeless.

So don’t get too excited about what happened on Sunday.  Scientists assure us that it is only a matter of time before “the Big One” hits California.

In fact, the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that hit northern California on Sunday was not even the largest earthquake along the Ring of Fire this weekend.  According to the U.S. Geological Survey, a 6.4 magnitude earthquake shook the area around Valparaiso, Chile on Saturday and a 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck Peru on Sunday.

As I mentioned above, we have moved into a time when seismic activity is steadily rising.  It has gotten to the point where even the mainstream media cannot ignore it anymore.  For example, just check out the following excerpt from a recent CBS News report…

The average rate of big earthquakes — those larger than magnitude 7 — has been 10 per year since 1979, the study reports. That rate rose to 12.5 per year starting in 1992, and then jumped to 16.7 per year starting in 2010 — a 65 percent increase compared to the rate since 1979. This increase accelerated in the first three months of 2014 to more than double the average since 1979, the researchers report.

Something is happening that scientists don’t understand, and that is a little scary.

As I wrote about the other day, earthquake activity seems to particularly be increasing in the United States.  While the west has been relatively quiet, the number of earthquakes in the central and eastern portions of the nation has quintupled over the past 30 years…

According to the USGS, the frequency of earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. has quintupled, to an average of 100 a year during the 2011-2013 period, up from only 20 per year during the 30-year period to 2000.

Most of these quakes were minor, but research published by the USGS earlier this year demonstrated that a relatively minor magnitude 5.0 quake caused by wastewater injection after conventional oil drilling triggered a much bigger, 5.7 magnitude quake in Prague, Okla.

“We know the hazard has increased for small and moderate size earthquakes. We don’t know as well how much the hazard has increased for large earthquakes. Our suspicion is it has but we are working on understanding this,” said William Ellsworth, a scientist with the USGS.

What in the world could be causing this to happen?

Oklahoma, which used to rarely ever have significant earthquakes, has experienced over 2,300 earthquakes so far in 2014.

That is absolutely staggering.

And of course volcanic activity has been rising all over the planet as well.  In 2013, the number of eruptions around the globe set a new all-time high, and right now persistent rumbling under Iceland’s Bardarbunga volcano has much of Europe on alert

For more than a week the earth has been rumbling beneath Iceland’s looming Bardarbunga volcano. The almost continuous small earthquakes led the government to activate its National Crisis Coordination Centre this week and block off access to the largely uninhabited region around the Bardarbunga caldera.

Major airlines are making contingency plans for a potential eruption that could throw dust into the atmosphere and disrupt flight paths between North America and Europe.

Some scientists are saying that if that volcano erupts, it “could trigger Britain’s coldest winter ever“.

Clearly something is happening.

All over the world seismic activity is on the rise.

That means that the shaking in California (and in much of the rest of the world) may soon get a whole lot worse.

So what do you think is causing all of this?  Please share what you think by posting a comment below…

Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer – A Critique

Off the keyboard of William Hunter Duncan

First published @ Off The Grid In Minneapolis

Discuss this at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

No new news to make for Job Search Part 3 yet, so I though I might delve into the meaning of it ALL, if you will. A new hypothesis has me thinking about that – it’s called Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer, put forth by RE, the main Admin at the website Doomstead Diner.

The last twenty years, earthquake and volcanic activity has been on the rise, markedly. If you know anything about the exponential function and how that relates to the currency, to population, to resource extraction and use, well, if you look at a graph of aggregate, global earthquake activity the last 40 years, you see a similar growth curve.

 Total strength of world wide earthquakes

http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/?mag=0&type=strength&freq=year&s\
tyle=nonlinear


That’s strange, don’t you think? It’s one thing to point to carbon emissions, or oil use, or water extraction, and say we have caused that. But when you realize one sizable earthquake might contain the energy equivalent of a few dozen or hundred nuclear bombs, and there are thousands upon thousands of quakes every year, it is beyond absurd to say humans have caused that (unless you are willing to attribute sentience to Gaia, the earth, in which case she might be supremely pissed off, at the aggregate behavior of her arrogant offspring, and has decided to shake things up a bit?)

What is so striking about this hypothesis, is that most earthquake and volcanic activity takes place below the sea, which, as it turns out, is warming faster than the atmosphere. The ocean is one giant heat sink, and it is simply wrong to suggest heating thin air would in turn heat dense water faster than the air is being heated. It does not appear there is any increase in solar output, that might be a contributing factor to the warming oceans. Instead, the hypothesis goes, it is increased tectonic activity below the sea, that is contributing not just to the warming oceans, but consequently, to climate change.


Notice in these graphs, how the early nineties saw a radical increase in earthquake strength overall, and heat content in the oceans. That would seem to contradict the standard model of climate change, which is called Anthropogenic. To date, about 98% of climate scientists are certain humans are to blame, with our burning of fossil fuels in the rampant way that we do. The other 2% are generally fundamentalist Christians who cannot believe, and paid-for corporate shills who won’t. The problem of course is, anytime 98% of any group believe the same thing, when that thing is of great import, that’s called orthodoxy; getting the orthodox to accept or even entertain anything, however factual, that might suggest a flaw in the core belief, is damn near impossible (see aforementioned Christians.)

The Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer hypothesis does not in fact contradict ACC (Anthropocentric Climate Change). Whatever is happening to the climate, we are certainly exacerbating that. There is nothing particularly healthy for the biosphere, polluting it the way we do, and what isn’t healthy for the biosphere isn’t healthy for the biological entity known as people, whatever the propaganda says about this glorious Age. Civilization as we know it is economically beneficial to a small number of humans, disastrous for the majority, and catastrophic for life generally. There isn’t any question at all, approaching the 400 ppb number, of carbon molecules in the atmosphere, we are helping to heat up the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. But there is clearly something else going on.

RE suggests, as our solar system is passing through the plane of the ecliptic of the Milky Way, from above the plane to below the plane, the nearer we are to the plane, the more we are bombarded with neutrinos flowing from the center of the galaxy, which is putting a strain on all the interstellar bodies – the other planets and the sun.

Whatever the cause, every celestial body in the solar system has been in upheaval the last several decades, as evidenced by this video from David Wilcock. I consider David a charlatan extraordinaire, but he is an excellent compiler of curious data. I don’t support what he is saying in the beginning of this piece, or necessarily his judgement about what ALL of it means, but these two links he alludes to (and a third I added), and the other evidence in the video of the changes ongoing throughout the solar system, do lend credence to RE’s hypothesis:
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/167057-Defenses-Down-Galactic-Dust-Storm-Hits-Solar-System)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/3222476/Suns-protective-bubble-is-shrinking.html

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/23sep_solarwind/

 

Whatever the cause, it is certainly a paradigmatic shift to say that climate change is being caused by changes within the earth, particularly when you are suggesting the driver of that is something coming from outside the heliosphere. Because if that is the case, well, it would seem to suggest we are fucked, if the increase in tectonic activity continues. We’ve grown accustomed to the idea of continuity. Not just here in America the last seventy years, with the ever growing economy, but over all, the last 10,000 years. We are told, that when the ice from the last ice age finally melted, the climate settled into a nice calm groove, we started planting seeds, and it’s been all progress on this (climatically) stable planet ever since. RE suggests the heating of the oceans will mean more moisture in the air, ever more rains, and ever more cloud cover, until the earth is shrouded and things cool down. That of course would lead to another ice age, and very great difficulties unknown in recent memory, for a higher mammal called Homo sapien. As in, population bottleneck. That likely has happened before, when the Toba volcano in the south pacific blew it’s top, 70,000 years ago, shrouding the skies with particulate, blocking the sun and reducing the population of Homo sapien to an estimated 1000 breeding pairs. So it’s not like that is without precedent.

But that could never happen to us, right? Because we have conquered nature, right? If there’s a more orthodox belief than that, it’s hard to imagine.

The Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer hypothesis may seem like just another doom and gloom scenario, to add to the bucket full bearing down on us at this point. But I don’t think so. I think it’s the best news I’ve heard in awhile. How can that be? Well, I’ve never made much of a secret that I think this universe is divine, which is to say, imbued with energy and conscious intent, throughout. Hearing that the earth is acting up tectonically, that the whole solar system is in upheaval, at the same time the human exponential growth curve has reached it’s peak, at the same time our financial markets seem on the cusp of collapse, at the same time we seem to be on the verge of global war for the last of the oil, at the same time the Mayan’s cyclical 5,126 long count calendar comes to an end/beginning (5000 years ago we gathered in cities and started writing, 10,000 years ago we started planting seeds) well, it’s just another profound layer of mysteriousness. Radical changes are afoot, clearly, on every level. And in light of that, the industrial age begins too look less like a terrible mistake leading inevitably to the extinction of life on planet earth, and more like the necessary growing pains, that we might become aware of the changes that are happening to the entire solar system, and so, prepare ourselves for what is coming. How we do that, I don’t know, other than to look at it and be honest. To train our consciousness there. To face it. That we might choose to live more humbly, more harmoniously, on this beautiful planet.

We aren’t really doing that of course. More, we are doing whatever we can not to face the radical changes all around us, like this video posted on my Facebook news feed, described by the poster as THIS IS WHAT THE INTERNET WAS MADE FOR.
Gut the resources of the earth to make a washing machine designed with forced obsolescence to break down in less than ten years, but to be destroyed instead for pleasure by some idiot bright enough to heft a rock.

Perhaps it’s best to give up on any meaning, in the way of conspicuous affluence and “disposable” income? Or, find this the most propitious of times, to be AWAKE and ALIVE, to BE in a way that is MEANINGFUL, as if we are at the cusp of a transformation unlike anything humanity has ever known?

~~~~~~~~~~~~

BTW – I keep forgetting to mention, one of my readers sent me a great documentary Once Upon A Time In Knoxville I highly recommend. A great story of the waste based culture of our time, and what some are doing about it.

Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory Revisited

Off the Keyboard of RE

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner

I had a terrific discussion of Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory with Gail Tverberg of Our Finite World in the Commentary of her recent article Reaching financial limits–What kinds of solutions are available?

It remains very important to consider the possibility/likelihood that the Global Climate Change we see occurring may not be Anthropogenic in origin. Many of the Policy Decisions and Economic decisions being made now are based on the idea that Cliimate Change is Anthropogenic, and that by pursuing Strategies like Carbon Tax Credits we might be able to alter the Climactic System enough to prevent further damage to the Ocean and Atmospheric systems currently being affected.

If it is true that the Earth is undergoing a Geological Phase Shift that is producing the effects, then it really does not pay to try and stop that, we won’t be able to do it.  Rather what we have to do is figure out means by which to live in a World vastly changed in Climate from what it is now. This could include such adaptations as shifting the locations where most people live to areas which might be more survivable, growing more food through Hydroponics in areas being DRENCHED with extensive Rainfall and moving food Production AWAY from areas experiencing Extreme Drought and perhaps even developing more Underground living arrangements to Ride Out the Storms, so to speak, until hopefully the situation reverts again once this cycle is done with.  If it does not revert,there really is not much to do about it, we are TOAST when the Phytoplankton Collapse.

Anyhow, below follows my discussion with Gail which clarifies many of these issues.  I suggest you read this and the original Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory article here on the Diner before drawing the conclusion that Climate Change is necessarily Anthropogenic in Origin.

RE

  •  

     

    Thanks!

    Any more news on your theory about heat coming from the center of the earth, rather than atmospheric warming?

     

     

    • reverseengineerre says:

       

       

      The Good Newz would be that it appears we reached Peak Quakes in terms of frequency between 2004-2007 maxing out at a little over 30,000 Quakes/year of any magnitude globally. The Bad Newz would be that the largest magnitude quakes greater than Mag 5 are still showing significant and steady increase, with concomitant high energy releases far greater than thousands of Hiroshima Bombs dropped each year. These along with numerous 7+ quakes releasing energies which dwarf the Tsar Bomba, the largest thermonuclear device ever detonated.

      You can do the calculations yourself Gail, you’re an Actuary.  The increased Energy Release coming from the Earth over the last 20 years dwarfs the Heat Content of all the Oil and Coal burned since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution by several Orders of Magnitude. No contest between Mother Earth and Homo Sapiens as to who can ramp up Energy Release more.  Its like the Dallas Cowbows taking on the Pop Warner Fotball Team from Timbuktu.  If you know any Physics at all, you know by Conservation of Energy it has to go somewhere.  What is the Biggest Heat Sink on the surface of Planet Earth Gail?

      You want to check this for yourself, go visit Dlindquist’s website and the USGS Earthquake stats.

      http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/

      RE http://doomsteadiner.com

       

       

    •  

       

      I think I mentioned earlier that when I went to an actuarial meeting last year, one of the topics being discussed was the rise in large magnitude earthquakes, and the fact that it was of concern to insurers. So I wasn’t surprised at what you were showing.

      My physics is pretty limited. I’m afraid I don’t know how to compare earth movement to other types of energy. (I do know the energy has to go somewhere.)

       

       

    • reverseengineerre says:

       

       

      The Law of Conservation of Energy states, “Energy is neither Created nor Destroyed, only transformed from one form to another.”

      In the case of Fossil Fuels, the potential energy stored as chemical energy in the Bonds between the Carbon atoms.  When burned with Oxygen, said energy is released as Heat.  In the case of Nuclear Energy, the stored energy is inside the Nucleus and is far greater, and when Fission or Fusion occur, again you get energy released as Heat, along with High Energy radiation in the form of Gamma Rays and X-rays.  In Earthquakes, you have the potential energy stored mechanically, and the movement of large masses in the end is transformed into vibrations which transform to Heat.

      ALL of them are measured in the same units, Joules,Calories, BTUs whatever.  There is no fundamental difference between them all.  In any event, when a Quake goes off, unlike a Nuclear reaction it cannot change any of its mechanical energy into high energy radiation, it all has to go out as Heat.On the surface of the Earth, all this Heat really has one mainHeat Sink, and that is the Ocean which constitutes about 75%of the surface material, and Water has the second highest Heat Capacity of any known compound, the only greater one is Ammonia which does not exist in anywhere near the quantity water does on Earth.

      The only place for the Energy released by Quakes is into the World Oceans, and from there it gets radiated out into the Atmosphere in a variety of ways.  Many by increased Evaporationof the Water, driving more of it up into the atmosphere.  Thus you get the kind of extreme rainfall situation you see now in the Manila and in Shanghai, where apparently if you BELIEVE  Chinese Stats they relocated 1.5 MILLION People.

      There are other synergistic effects to consider from the changing gas mix in the atmosphere, but overall albedo effects tend to offset greenhouse effects so overall atmospheric temperature is not rising that rapidly.The primary source of the increased energy input here though?  Not the Sun, not the burned Fossil fuels either.  Its coming from deep down inside the Core of the Earth.  for whatever the reason, the Earth is dissipating at least one order of magnitude if not 2 greater energy now than 20 years ago.  That is  LOT of energy to transform to Heat.

      RE

       

       

    •  

       

      Thanks!

      It had never occurred to me that the energy of the greater number / strength of earthquakes would be stored in the earth’s ocean as heat, or that the magnitude of the stored heat would be as high as you say. (Of course, my physics background is mostly what I have “picked up” here and there.)

      I remember that you posted a graph of the higher ocean temperature. Also a description of where you were able to calculate this from.

      You have also shown links to the rise in earthquakes, which seems to have tailed off a bit recently. Have you done an actual calculation of the amount of energy that would be stored from the increase in earthquakes to connect the two?

      Is this all in one post, or multiple places? I am not as good using your search engine as you are, and I sometimes forget what I have read where.

       

       

    • reverseengineerre says:

       

       

      The original article I wrote is actually a compilation of stuff I wrote together with a Geology buff named Stormbringer who I met on the Peak Oil message board. Together we ran one of the longest running threads on the board which went hundreds of pages deep during the Yellowstone Quake Swarm. I put it together in an article on the Diner

      http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2012/04/02/geotectonic-ocean-heat-transfer-theory/

      In terms of total energy, the increase in Heat Content of the Oceans is greater than the summation of all the energies of the Quakes alone.  However, quakes are not the only method by which the Earth dissipates Heat, Vulcanism on the sea floor is extensive around the subduction zones and there is direct thermal radiation through the crust as well below the sea bed where it is the thinnest.  Sort of like a pot of water on a Hot Plate.

      The best way to see the correlation between the two is to overlay the graphs of the Quakes with the graph of the increasing Heat Content of the Oceans over the 20 year time span, they match in lock step.

      The most frightening correlation is one I came upon later, which is the rapidly decreasing pH or acidification that is resulting from this.  It probably comes from two places, increasing Sulfur emissions from subsea volcanoes and melting Clathrates releasing gobs of CO2 from the ocean floor and bubbling it straight up through the water.  This produces Sulfuric, Sulfurous and Carbonic Acid. At current rates of acidification, it probably takes no more than 30-50 years before the Ocean is too acidic to support any shell based sea life like Coral Reefs.  How long the phytoplankton can last is a more difficult question, because they probably can adapt to higher acidity to an extent.  If the phytoplankton collapse, we are of course all dead, Oxygen percentage in the atmosphere will drop rapidly after that and all higher animal life will go to the Great Beyond in short order.

      One can take a certain amount of HOPE looking at the now decreasing frequency of quakes that this will level off before it collapses the phytoplankton.  However, the energy dissipation is still quite large because the most powerful quakes are still on the increase. Only Time will tell on that one..

      RE

       

       

    •  

       

      Thanks! I see that the ocean heat content graph is actually one from a NOAA web site you link to. http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/  No one can complain that you misinterpreted NOAA data.

      My chemistry background is only a little better than my physics background. I was presuming that the ocean acidification problems were coming only because of too much CO2 in the atmosphere. If the exposure is really form the bottom as well, this would increase the speed of acidification.

      If there is a different avenue of ocean/climate disturbance that is taking place, it seems like it would be worthwhile for someone with suitable background to write an article for an academic journal on the issue. Or perhaps post some comments on a blog that discusses more climate issues, where other climate modelers “hang out”.

       

       

    • reverseengineerre says:

       

       

      That would be me except I have the same opinion of Academic Journals I do for MSM outlets like Bizness Insider and Financial Sense.  In terms of discussing this on one of the Climate websites, that would be a bit like a Marxist arguing for Communism on Zero Hedge.  The Anthropogenic Group Think would swamp you in no time.  Discussing it with Guy McPherson for instance is like talking to a brick wall.

      RE

RE’s Geological & Cosmological Event Watch

Posted originally on TPB on 12th March 2011 by Reverse Engineer  in Economy |Social Issues |Technology

Note: This article was written in the direct aftermath of the Tsunami which led to the meltdownn of the Nukes at Fuk-U-Shima.  Not all the predictions I made in the heat of the moment have come true…yet.  However, most of the analysis here I think is still correct, so I put it up unedited from its original version.

Discuss this article inside the Diner

I had a nice Daily Rant about ¾ done yesterday following up on the issue brought up in the Lawrence of Arabia thread regarding Winston Churchill and the behavior of the Anglo branch of the Illuminati which I was going to finish up tonight, however that post is now on Indefinite Hold due to Geological and Cosmological events swamping out the Man Made economic disaster, currently unfolding in real time on the island of Honshu.

I started a Geological and Cosmological Event Watch 3 years ago on the Peak Oil board when the increasing frequency of active volcanism and earthquakes was first becoming apparent. This is a fun thread to read if you have a LOT of time on your hands. LOL. My friend Stormbringer and I covered the Earthquake Swarms in Yellowstone in one of the longest running threads on that board ever, it ran over 80 pages and more than 1200 comments long. We had contributions from geologists working for the USGS along with Rock Docs from the Oil Patch all contributing to the thread.

The general consensus was that there was definitely increasing geological activity and that we would definitely be seeing “The Big One” coming down the pipe, though of course nobody could pinpoint where it would strike or exactly when. Now, I don’t know if you want to categorize the Sendai Quake and Tsunami as “THE” Big One, or just “A” Big One, but by all measures “Big One” does apply to this event.

Now so far the MSM is studiously avoiding estimates on Loss of Life for this event past the “more than 1000” level, but given the size of the Tsunami, variously estimated at 7 meters high to 10 meters high which traveled inland some 30KM or so in one of the most densely populated regions on earth, the final tally on this one is almost certainly going to surpass the Indonesian Tsunami which took out over 200,000 Human Souls. This is not even including any further problems that might come down the pipe from the currently overheating Nukes, nor does it take into account the firestorms raging in various cities and towns in the area.

 

The last MSM story I read described the scene in Tokyo as “Apocalyptic”, with many fires raging, and the epicenter of the quake was FAR from Tokyo. At least 4 Commuter Trains have been listed as “Missing”. Many people still remain trapped in

Elevators and in the Tokyo Subway system. Besides the currently offline Nukes, many Thermal plants and Hydro plants are still offline. Fresh Water supplies have been contaminated over a vast area. In the area where the Tsunami has receeded, rescue teams still cannot get in because the roads have been washed away.

All in all, this disaster makes Katrina look like small potatoes. By itself with a population of 1M people, Sendai is bigger than New Orleans was pre-Katrina. Thing is, the Tsunami hit all along a densely populated coastline over at least 200 kilometers and moved 30 km inland, and the total population affected is far more than 1M people. Its just mind boggling.

Like Katrina, this story is going to be dominating the Newz for weeks and months to come here, at least until we get an even BIGGER Black Swan flying in for a landing. Trying to predict how the Manipulated Financial markets will react to this next week is nearly impossible, though I will make a stab at it later in this article. The Japanese are going to float Bonds here, which Helicopter Ben is likely to buy up en masse with more freshly printed Dollar digibits. Oil may DROP in price because so many Nip Oil Refineries are offline and no longer demand the Oil. Resultant from that, to get enough Gas and Diesel, the Nips will have to import the stuff already refined, and for gasoline particularly that is a difficult thing to do, because it is so volatile. Very specialized tankers necessary for that, and there are not many of them. Basically, virtually INSTANTLY, a large area of one of the most Industrialized First World countries is facing all the system breakdowns of energy, transportation and sanitation/water supply to be expected more gradually from general Oil starvation. Besides that, a significant portion of their Rice Crop has been destroyed.

This isn’t Haiti folks, its not poor black folks in a 3rd world hell hole. It’s fucking JAPAN. One wonders how NHK MSM is going to cover it. As a Client State of the FSofA since WWII, one suspects they will be quite controlled in what Newz actually gets dispersed. This will be a real TEST of the alternative media of the Blogosphere and of individuals using their Cell Phones to capture and distribute the images across the net.

So, what is causing this, and what can we expect in the future? Explaining it categorically with proven scientific “facts”isn’t possible (Muckabout is sure to take this paragraph to task.LOL), but there are some curious coincidences to consider. Right before this Quake, the Sun had one of its biggest Magnetic Storms in years. Up here on the Last Great Frontier, the Aurora Borealis was simply EXTRAORDINARY the night before the quake. The Earth’s molten core is mostly Iron, and changes in the magnetic field could be creating a lot of stress on the spinning field it creates itself. How much physical stress that puts on the plates and how much heat stress you get is open to conjecture, but on a planetary scale it most certainly could add up to a lot of energy transfer through the whole of the Solar system. Remember your Thermodynamics, Energy is neither created nor destroyed, just transferred from one form to another. If the Sun shoots out a TSUNAMI of magnetic flux directed at the Earth, its going to get transferred into the earth. It did that, evidenced by the spectacular light show we got from the Northern Lights. The Solar Cycle we are expected to go into here Peaking in 2013 has more of these magnetic storms occurring more frequently. So if there is a relationship between Heliomagnetic Storms and Terrestrial Geophysical events, then they are going to increase in magnitude and frequency along with the solar disturbances.

On a pure physical level, each big disturbance here destabilizes other vulnerable areas where stresses have built up. So in Japan, directly after the Big One in Sendai estimated at 8.9 on the Richter scale, there have been dozens of aftershocks themselves over 6, quite enough to cause significant damage themselves. Will this destabilize the ENTIRE Ring of Fire in Cascade fashion? Doomer that I am, I

expect it will, and so I expect to see more Big Ones all around the Ring of Fire, and more Vulcanism.

How often are these “Big Ones” on the Ring of Fire coming now? Well in the last year we had a Big One in Chile, and we just had a Big One in NZ. We are due for one anyhow on several areas along the San Andreas fault in CA, and here in Alaska as well. If we do get another one someone along this ring in the next year, I think you can say with good assurance we are in the DEEP Doo-Doo, because we are still a good 18 months to 2 years away from Max Stress based on the Solar Cycle. Add to that the unknowable stress we will be subjected to as we pass through the Galactic Ecliptic on 12/21/2012, the very bowels of the earth might vomit up under the vast flux of energy through the Milky Way Galaxy.

Even “Big Ones” though are not Civilization terminating events anywhere but where they actually occur. In aggregate, many of them could make this civilization ending if they happen frequently enough, but a single one will not do it anywhere. Not even taking out all of Tokyo or Los Angeles would do that. The only SINGLE event which might be Civilization Ending on an local planetary scale (excluding external Asteroid impact) would be if this stress sets in motion enough of a cascade to set off one of the Supervolcanos, Yellowstone of course being the prime candidate because its about 60,000 years overdue. I am going to be monitoring the Seismos at Yellowstone in mid June and again mid December this year. If what has been occurring here follows the pattern, this is when we would see another big Swarm of Quakes around the Caldera there. It seems to be related to the summer and winter solstice.

Even before Yellowstone blows though, I am quite sure we will have some more “Big Ones” along the Ring of Fire this year. This one in Japan hit 8.9, possibly 9.0, making it the 5th largest Quake ever recorded. It’s the current Benchmark. If/when we get bigger ones than that, it would be a good time to start Drinking. Heavily. Keeping my fingers crossed my Cabin is not right above Ground Zero for the next one of course. Not that this would not be a bad way to go out, but I sure would hate to buy that ticket to the Great Beyond and MISS Yellowstone going Ballistic during my corporeal existence a measely year later.

While considering the Supervolcanos sprinkled around the Globe, let us not forget that Toba is just north of the recent quake in New Zealand and south of the quake in Japan. So it is getting stressed from both the North and the South. Also let us not forget the biggest Motherfucker of ALL TIME, Fish Canyon Tuff in La Garita Caldera which put an astounding 5000 cubic kilometers of ejecta up into the atmosphere is also probably due, though its periodicity isn’t known because it only blew off once 2.3M years ago in the geological record. If just Toba or Yellowstone blow, its civilization ending, but might not be the end of Homo Sapiens. There might be a tribe of 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs who makes it through somewhere. If La Garita goes, it’s a Permian-style Extinction event of just about all life forms above the level of the Tardigrades.

Now, let us leave the musings on a forthcoming extinction level disaster aside for a moment, and just focus on the current disaster unfolding in Japan. What are the secondary effects it is going to have on the worldwide financial markets? Well first off, the Insurance and Reinsurance industry is going to be about wiped out here. The nuke plants alone taken out here are liabilities in the Billions. Add all the other industries, loss of farmland, loss of life and property, we’re certainly looking at triple digit Billions here, even Trillions is not out of the question when you consider how this is going to affect the total Japanese economy.

The Japanese have been mired in a 20 year long depression, barely papered over by extend and pretend keeping their banking system floating. How can all the BROKE Nation-States of the world really loan them any money to rebuild after this disaster? Is the “solvent” Nation of China going to lend them Hyperinflating Renminby because the Chinese LOVE the Japanese so much? You think the Chinese have forgotten what the Nips did to them in WWII? I think not. With Nuke Plants exploding here, one suspects the Japanese would not have much stomach for building new ones anyhow, and obviously they cannot replace them with Fossil Fuel burning plants, so replacing the lost electrical power generation capability really is not even possible even IF you had money to do it with. Whatever recovery does take place in the Land of the Rising Sun, its going to be on a whole heck of a lot lower energy footprint. This means we are likely saying goodbye to Sony TVs and Toyota Cars built on their home soil. The energy they use in manufacturing this stuff is going to have to be redirected to just maintaining basic services internally. I think you can say with reasonable assurance that along with the British Isles, the Sun has now Set on the Japanese islands of Honshu and Hokkaido also.

What does this mean for all the currency traders who hold a lot of Yen? Well, briefly it might make the Yen more valuable, since the Japanese will need it to do any kind of rebuilding with, but what is the value of the Yen based on? Their manufacturing capacity of course. They certainly do not have a lot of arable for food export, actually a good deal less of it today than they had 2 days ago. They don’t have local reserves of Energy for export either. So the Japanese are now essentially a Welfare state dependent on the Kindness of Strangers to float them loans based on…NOTHING. The Yen as a currency is going to go down the toilet, and anybody who holds a lot of Yen based assets is going to lose his shirt. And his underwear.

One has to suspect that the Illuminati will be running for the fire exit here next week on the Tokyo stock exchange. Katy Bar the Door! Unlike the Brainy Asian children in Miyagi-Ken Prefecture who were studying hard in their Science and Math classrooms when they got washed out to sea to become Fish Food and will now NOT Apply to the Wharton School of Bizness at the University of Pennsylvania adjacent to the 30 Blocks of Squalor in Philadelphia, these folks still retain their lives, but all the MONEY they invested in Japanese stocks was washed out to sea with the Tsunami. Of course, the Tsunami on the Nikkei Exchange will wait for Monday to begin, but I do not see how that will not go lock limit down in the first hour of trading. The Japanese are going to have to halt trading. Even Helicopter Ben cannot print money fast enough to stop that Tsunami. Or can he? If the International PPT can keep the Nikkei floating, I will just be astounded.

If indeed there is a run on the Nikkei, then this means MARGIN CALLS across the board. All the Big Boys are levered up here to beat the band, so to meet those calls they will have to liquidate assets on other exchanges around the world. By about any measure, the PHYSICAL collapse of the City of Sendai and Miyagi-Ken Prefecture is a WAY bigger Black Swan than even Lehman. I’m NOT however going to go in on Monday morning and bet short, though I am quite sure this is a winning bet for next week. I simply cannot bring myself to take profit in the loss of so many lives. Anybody who does this can consider themselves a Profiteer of Death, and you will Burn in Everlasting Torment in the Fire and Brimstone of Hell if you do it. Its just like bidding up the price of Commodities when you KNOW people are starving because they cannot afford the food. It is fundamentally immoral to take profit on the misery of others in this way.

Now, besides all this going on, apparently ALSO the Hacker COLLECTIVE known as “Anonymous” is going to release documents on Monday proving the Corruption and Fraud perpetrated by BofA. While the Public Unions are currently in Full Retreat losing the battle against the Power of the Statists, the POWER of the UNION of Hackers is growing. It is the power of the COLLECTIVE, the power of the BORG. Resistance is Futile. “Anonymous” is TRULY powerful, much moreso than Julian Assange BECAUSE they are “ANONYMOUS”. There is no one person for the MSM to focus on, no one to prosecute for “sex crimes”. There are many of them out there all with their own Laptops, all connected to the World Wide Web. No central hub to take out, unless you take down the Internet itself. MANY angry IT Geeks out there right now who have lost their 6 figure jobs for smaller companies running the LAN for that company when it went under. Many recent graduates of IT programs at many Universities who cannot find a Job. Not every one of them is a fucking GENIUS who can go in through the back door of a Goobermint or Bank network and bypass the security, but most certainly a few of them CAN and nobody KNOWS who they are. They know how to use proxy servers and launch bots and viruses to hunt down what they want to find, or swamp out servers they don’t like with DNS attacks. They have PROVED this already. They are ANONYMOUS, and NOBODY, not even the Illuminati can Fuck with Anonymous. Anonymous is as close to Bulletproof as you can GET in an information based society. Anonymous means literally “No Name”. If you cannot NAME the enemy, you have no target. No “Al-Quaeda”, no Osama Bin Ladin, no Obama, no “el-Kabong”, nay not even “Jamie Dimon” or “Lloyd Blankfeien” to pillory. Only “Anonymous”, no face to put to the “enemy”. As long as you remain Anonymous, you cannot be touched, and the more Anonymous there are, the more POWER they will accrue.

There is no “Bradley Manning” or “Julian Assange” for the MSM to focus the attention of the masses on with the Hackers of Anonymous. Anonymous is the UNION of the smart and disenfranchised who have now had ENOUGH. They cannot be stopped by the Illuminati until they take down the Web entirely, and they cannot do that because it is their own means of control. “Anonymous” will WIN this battle. “Anonymous” are the BORG. The COLLECTIVE will WIN against the Individual eventually always. The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth. The Illuminati are FINISHED. The Borg will eat them alive. You want to be on the WINNING side here? Join with the Borg, JOIN THE COLLECTIVE. Become a part of the UNION of Anonymous.

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.

RE

Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory

Last summer’s flooding events here and in China made me reflect on what appears to be a rapidly changing climate.  This is most often considered to be an atmospheric effect of increasing Greenhouse Gases, mainly CO2 and Methane.  After doing a bit of research however, it seems to me now the cause may not in fact be coming from the atmosphere, but from the core of the Earth.  Below you will find a few posts I made last year, along with some discussion with friends from the Reverse Engineering Yahoo Group.

Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table in the Diner

The current Biblical Scale Flooding Events occurring in China and down the
Missouri-Mississippi drainage basin have led me to speculate on what is causing
this. I have a new theory to pitch out which ties together these events with
the rising amount of volcanic and tectonic activity.

All the focus on Global Climate has been on what is occurring in the Atmosphere
far as rising levels of CO2 ad Methane are concerned. However, what if the
driving force here isn’t the atmosphere, but rather the Ocean?

The increasing volcanic and tectonic activity must be resultant from increasing
energy in the system. Since the amount of radioactive material in the core of
the earth isn’t changing that rapidly, the extra energy must be coming from
either increased gravitational stresses or possibly increased neutrino flow
through the earth, or both. Whatever the cause, its clear that tectonic and
volcanic activity has increased.

Down at the base of the ocean, the Crust of the earth is much thinner, along
with the fact there are active volcanos under the ocean floor. So any increase
in heat being radiated out from the mantle would have to heat up the ocean.
This would then increase the evaporation rate at the surface of the ocean, and
put a lot more water vapor up into the air.

So over the course of the Winter then, we end up with a much larger Snowpack in
the mountain regions, where all this water vapor condenses and falls as
snowflakes. Happens both in the Himalayas and in the Rockies, explaining why
both areas are experiencing the same effect in the same year.

Come the summer, the snows start to melt and the water starts rushing down from
the Mountains, but this causes a secondary local effect of that water
evaporating and constantly putting a cloud layer over these regions. This
causes an Albedo Effect which locally cools the surface of these locations, thus
increasing the Rainfall they get all through the summer. So the drainage system
gets the double whammy of increased flow from the headwaters in the mountains,
plus constant pressure from rainfall all along the system.

The whole theory is completely consistent with all the observed effects so far
of Earthquakes and Floods. The main way to verify it would be to see if there
was a marked rise in Ocean Temperatures over the last few years. So I went over
to the NOAA website, and lo and behold, beginning in 1990 up through 2010, there
has been a marked and rapid rise in the total heat content of the world’s
oceans. A spike occurred in 2002-2004 or so, and it plateaus out at the highest
level now through 2010, the last data on the chart.

Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-present 0-2000 m

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

Now, I personally cannot see how slight changes in atmospheric temperatures
since 1990 would cause such a volume of water to have so big a rise in total
heat content. The specific heat of water is far greater than gases in the
atmosphere, so you couldn’t get that much heat into them this way. Nor to my
knowledge has the Sun been radiating substantially more energy during the
period, leaving the obvious conclusion that the additional heat is being
radiated outward from the Earth’s core.

Now, over time this issue I think feeds on itself, in concert with the albedo
effects. More rain is falling in areas that get cloud cover, less rain is
falling in areas with no cloud cover. The real question though is, will the
rising ocean temperatures continue, or have we reached a Peak which will begin
to descend again after 2012? Is it possible there will be a further spike
upward through 2011? So far no data published for 2011 on the NOAA website.
Wondering if Jake might have access to this data?

OK Storm, whaddya think?
———–

OK, further confirmation of the theory that the increasing Ocean heat content is
tied to increasing geological activity.

Here is a graph of Earthquake Frequency since 1973. As you can see in this
chart, there has been a steady increase in in the number of 6+ Quakes worldwide
since around 1990, PRECISELY the time the world oceans began to heat up.

http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/?mag=6&type=num&freq=year&style=\
nonlinear

If you knock the magnitude down to 5+ Quakes, you see rapid increase beginning
in 1999

http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/?mag=5&type=num&freq=year&style=\
nonlinear

The real killer graphs are for Average Magnitude of all Quakes

http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/?mag=0&type=avgmag&freq=year&sty\
le=nonlinear

and for Total Strength of all quakes

http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/historical/?mag=0&type=strength&freq=year&s\
tyle=nonlinear

As you can see, all the charts point toward rapidly increasing energy
dissipation through these quakes. They all release mega joules, and that has to
go somewhere, because of course energy isn’t created or destroyed, just
transformed from one form to another. Where is the energy going? It is going
into heating up the Oceans!

The correlation between Ocean Heat Content and Earthquake frequency is almost
perfect! This is just astounding. I just HAVE to submit this theory to a
Scientific Journal! It blows to hell every other Climate Change theory!

Global Climate change is being driven not by the atmosphere, but by energy
dissipation of the earth’s geological processes into the Oceans, which is
rapidly increasing. The most powerful quakes are steadily increasing in
frequency as well, which can only result in still more rapid water evaporation
from the oceans. Result? More Hurricanes, more Tornadoes, more Floods!

This won’t stop until the quakes stop coming so fast and furious, doesn’t matter
what you do with carbon emissions. Its the WATER in the air, not the CARBON
that is doing this!
——————-

Further thoughts on the Geo-Tectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory, as I am now
calling it.Assuming the theory of increasing tectonic activity as we pass through the
Galactic Ecliptic in 2012 is correct, would this mean that after 2012 the Oceans
will begin to cool again?

My intitial hypothesis on this is no they will not, because although the
geo-tectonic activity will slow down, it won’t likely reach its 1990 level for
around 10-15 years. The oceans will continue to heat up through this time
period, which then of course will put still more water vapor up into the
atmosphere. This then should gradually increase total Cloud Cover, increasing
the Albedo effect and reducing over land temperatures some, producing more
rainfall.

The overall effect here is to transfer a lot of the ocean water onto the land
through increased precipitation. The kind of flooding we are seeing in China
and the Missouri-Mississippi drainage basin is likely only the beginning here of
Biblical style flooding, “40 days and 40 Nights” of torrential rainfalls could
become common. So your flooding won’t just come to coastal areas as a result of
ocean level rising from melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, really
anyplace with poor drainage would get flooded. Mountain Valleys would become
lakes. The Mississippi River is likely to spread into an inland sea.

For this period to end, the release of energy by the earth through tectonics and
vulcanism will have to calm down to at least its pre 1990 levels for an extended
period of time, to allow the accumulated heat in the oceans dissipate into
space. However, this will be slowed by the cloud cover, hich will both insulate
the earth surface and reduce surface temperatures, causing more of the precip to
come down as Snow rather than rain. Obvious result: an Ice Age.

Bottom line, what I think is occurring here is the typical cycle of the Earth as
it gets stressed by varying amounts of energy depending on its position relative
to the center of the Galaxy. The Sun also is likely affected by this and
probably contributes to the effect. The Eath has never heated up like Venus
with runaway Greenhouse effects, but has MANY times gone through Ice Ages. I
believe we are witnessing here the beginnings of a new Ice Age.
————————–

Interesting…I believe we had a somewhat linked conversation about 5 yrs ago on peak oil…About how the earths crust is like the radiator of a car engine  :)….We tied peak oil to global warming in this theory..Remember…And i agree there is deff something going on..As to what there are several possibles in my view..
 
1) As you said internal global temps could very well be on the rise..This could be linked to the magnetic pole shift in some manor…As a object in motion tends to stay in motion..any force temping to alter said motion will create heat…If in fact the magnetic poles do effect the actual rotation of the earth or the core then a massive build up of heat would be expected…this will be exaggerated by the global warming we have been experiencing over the last decade or so…so therefor the radiator can not displace the heat as effectively as it should…
 
2) slowed ocean current will heat the oceans….If the current is not moving the heat north as quickly as before the heat will build up…More time in the hot areas will allow the temps to rise beyond normal before being slowly moved north..This would cause a great deal of evaporation as you said..and the increase of overall percep…I think that this is prob the most likely theory on the  cause of this temp increase…As we all know the influx of fresh water into the ocean conveyor will slow if not stop the process..Hence again global warming is the cause and effect…with increased surface temps…core temps rise therefor increased activivity..it really is a matter of the chicken and the egg here which came first???
 
3) Increased magnetic influence from a outside source…Is the suns new “mini ice age” cycle that some believe come with increased magnetics???? Or is some other body of mass entering our solar system…”planet x” ???? who knows the data is out there but questionable at the least…If there is some other force as yet unknown with the gravitational force large enough to cause this it would be of such mass (which doesn’t necessarily mean size) as to effect all the planets..which there is evidence of just such things happening throughout the solar system..temps are increasing though out the entire system…So therefor something is effecting the entire system..Now if Planet x is a dwarf star as some suggest then expect things to get very ugly before its over with….So who knows???
 
4) it is possible that we are too close to the trees to see the forest and all of these things are happening at once..lets hope not..  🙂
 
Storm
——————-
The difference between our conversation on Peak Oil and this one was at the time
it was just speculation with no data to back it up. Now, with the two sets of
data, the first from the NOAA showing the steady rise in thermal energy in the
world’s oceans since 1990, then Dave Lindquist’s (he works for USGS, maybe Jake
knows him) data showing the same steady rise in total earthquake strength the
source of the energy for the warming water is clear. The two graphs do an
almost perfect overlay, I might photoshop it.It pretty much eliminates the likelihood of this merely being a convection issue
of the oceans not circulating the water around enough to the poles to cool it
down. You can actually tabulate year on year how much additional energy in
joules is being added to the oceans by earthquakes.

Magnitude Es (from Me) Es (from Ms or Mw) Tons of TNT Nuclear Bomb Equivalence
(# of bombs)
4 0.22E+11 0.63E+11 15. 0.00
5 0.71E+12 0.20E+13 475. 0.02
6 0.22E+14 0.63E+14 15023. 0.79
7 0.71E+15 0.20E+16 475063. 25.0
8 0.22E+17 0.63E+17 15022833. 790.6
9 0.71E+18 0.20E+19 475063712. 25,003.3

Now, as I recall from the Total Heat in the Oceans graph, it was something like
15E+22. An individual say 6 quake adds only a small fraction of energy 8 orders
of magnitude lower, but its not insignificant when you sum over all quakes over
a 10 year period.

Also, we can’t measure how much energy is being directly thermally radiated
outward through volcanic activity at hot spots and just a general warming of the
crust, which probably contributes much more. The oceans are nothing more than a
big pot of water sitting on a hot plate, ad if that hot plate is increasing in
temperature then the water above it will heat up as well. Again, increased
tectonic activity is itself an indicator that there is more energy now that the
earth has to dissipate, and that energy would generally store up as heat in the
mantle.

We can’t be sure of the cause of the heating up of the rock, but we can be sure
its a good deal hotter now than it was in 1990. If its a linear relationship,
then its roughly 15X hotter now. Thats like changing a match under a pot of
water to a bunsen burner. It will boil a lot quicker.

The energy now stored in the Oceans also has to dissipate more, thus you get the
increasingly violent storms carrying a lot more water vapor in them. It really
only makes sense that the Oeans would drive the weather in the Atmosphere, not
the Atmosphere drive the temperature of the Oceans. The Ocean is a much bigger
heat sink than the atmosphere is, even a massive atmospheric rise in temp would
only cause a small temperture rise in the oceans, but we don’t have a massive
atmospheric temperature rise. Conversely, just a small rise in Ocean temps
would have massive atmospheric effects. That is just what we are seeing.

RE
——————————

OK lets assume your correct and the ocean is the driver…What is causing its increase in temp becomes the question??? How would a quake increase ocean temps..Yes tons of energy is released but that energy is not necessarily heat producing..At least not on a scale that would show the temp rise we are seeing on the graph??? If that were the case shallow on land quakes would see temp spikes with them..which unless undiscovered do not… I agree the correlation is stricking..But i don’t believe quakes are the cause..They may be a symptom same as the ocean temps…I really feel there must be another underling cause…
 
Storm
—————————–
Who knows for sure the real levels of radioactive waste they are dumping into the oceans?
 
What are the oceans temperatures around Japan.
 
David
—————————-
Well, the First Law of Thermodynamics tells us that energy cannot be destroyed,
just changed from one form to another. So if an Earthquake goes off at a 7,
energy equivalent to a few nukes has just been released. It has to go
somewhere, and since its a mechanical event that somewhere is not likely to be
electro-magnetic, but rather heat through friction. Water being shaken and
jostled around causes the molecules to move around, that heats it up.Anyhow, as the difference in energy content reveals, although I think the quakes
are a aprt of the reason the water is heating up, I think the greater reason is
direct heat transfer up through the crust all along the ocean floor. Both the
quakes and the rising heat content of the Oceans are just a symptom of the earth
heating from the core outward.

As to what is precisely the cause of the core heating up, this remains
speculation. My best guess is gravitational stresses and/or increased neutrino
flux. There are tanks that measure neutrino flux,, and I found this graph from
2002-2008 showing steadily increasing neutrino flux in the atmosphere

http://www.citebase.org/graph?id=65501458&big=0&cumu=1&legend=0

However, from my point of view knowing precisely what is causing it is not as
important as identifying that this is what is occurring here. Its the effects
of the earth heating up we have to deal with, specifically more and stronger
earthquakes and more extreme weather events.

If you take any of what is written in the Bible seriously, as probably stories
that were passed down through oral tradition, then the stories of “the Flood”
and earthquakes and all make sense.

Start from when Toba blew and we got the Bottleneck of human population down to
10,000 human souls or 1000 breeding pairs 70,000 years ago. They probably were
going through a very similar period to what we have now and leading into an Ice
Age. Probably got lots of rain and flooding. Of course the survivors were in
an equatorial location and so did not get iced over, but the legends could have
been passed on through oral tradition. Or perhaps it was a later similar event
but which did not cause a supervolcanic eruption. The earth has gone through
“mini” ice ages since then which could be smaller versions of the same
phenomena.

Here is a timeline from 100,000 years ago to present:

Years Before Present (B.P.)

Note: The Last Ice Age cycle lasted from roughly 60,000 to 20,000 years before
present, with Ice Age cycles occurring since 2.6 Million years ago to the
present. Ice Age Timeline

Human population has been estimated to have been around five million people
10,000 years ago. Recent studies from the Center for Genome Research and others
such as Ambrose suggest a small group of perhaps 10,000 people could have left
Africa between 50-100,000 years ago and populated the entire planet.
10,000 BP Beginning of Holocene. Large mammals including saber-toothed cats,
mammoths, and mastodons become extinct. Neolithic period with beginning of
agriculture and end of Ice Ages.

An estimated 5 million Homo sapiens inhabit planet Earth.
Image of Woolly Mammoth from Tulane University Museum of Natural History
20,000 BP Abrupt cooling about 15,000 years ago gives way to abrupt warming at
the end of the Younger Dryas period some 11,600 years ago, with a climatic
ripple effect impacting habitats around the world.

Gray wolves in East Asia become domesticated about 15,000 years ago, with all
modern dogs evolving from them. (Savolainen, Leonard, 2002).

20,000 years ago, global mean temperature 4 degrees C cooler than today,
although the North Atlantic was 14 degrees C cooler. Lower sea level allows
large-scale migrations of people into the Americas.
30,000 BP Homo sapiens thrive in cold European climate. Homo neanderthalensis
become extinct, with last fossil evidence dated 28,000 years ago in Portugal.
40,000 BP Plethora of stone and bone tools along with cave paintings and other
artwork in Europe. Homo sapiens use bone, ivory, antlers, and shells to make
tools while Neandertals only use stone to make tools. (Niewohner, 2003)

Image of early European Art Rock.
50,000 BP Cave dwellers leave evidence of seeds of wild dates and nuts including
chestnuts, walnuts, pine nuts, and acorns in Shanidar Cave of Northern Iraq.
Many large megafauna in Australia including large kangaroos, wombats and
emu-like ducks, become extinct, possibly due to human hunting and use of fire.
(Miller, 1999)
60,000 BP Homo sapiens enter Australia and begin to use fire, altering the
existing flora and fauna. (Pyne, 1991 )
During warming period (55-45K BP) mammoths roam central Sweden.
70,000 BP
Recent discoveries in caves along South African coast dating to 70,000 years
before present suggest people using bone tools and living on fish and mammals in
the region. (Henshilwood, 2002 )
Major eruption of Mount Toba 73,000 years ago in modern day Sumatra impacts
global climate system. (Rampino, 2000).
Image of artifacts by Chris Henshilwood

80,000 BP
90,000 BP
100,000 BP Diet of Homo sapiens includes fish and seafoods as last Ice Age
impacts Northern Hemisphere. Some scientists theorize that fish oil was key to
the growth of the brain of Homo sapiens Evidence suggests that no other hominids
such as Neanderthals ate fish. (See Broadhurst, 2001) Neandertals well
established in Europe since at least 300,000 years before present.

Also see: What is Variability? and Overview of Climate Processes.

Anyhow, remains to be seen of course whether this particular event is big enough
to bring a Supervolcano roaring into the picture, but even lesser chages of this
type can bring on an Ice Age, and the big weather events and earthquakes that
likely preceed such an Ice Age.

RE
———————————

I’m sure the real amount of radiactive waste flowing into the ocean from
Fuk-U-shima is FAR greater than the “Authorities” are admitting to. However,
while this is certainly poisoning the fisherie and Japanese Agriculture (not to
mention our own CA agriculture, although to a much lower level of course), I
don’t think it would play a significant role in heating up the ocean. Its a
drop in a very big bucket on a Heat level.The Ocean is such a huge mass with high specific heat tht only something much
bigger and hotter could effectively heat it up. What is bigger and hotter than
the Ocean? The molten rock that makes up the mantle of the earth. If it gets
significantly hotter, the Oceans will get significantly hotter, they sit right
on top of it. The Ocean isn’t ever going to heat up enough to make the molten
rock under it hotter, but the rock can eaily make the Oceans hotter. Same thing
with atmospheric warming. The Atmosphere doesn’t have high enough specific heat
to heat the Oceans, but the Oceans do have plenty to heat the atmosphere.
However, the water cycle of evaporation and condensation keeps it relatively
steady state until you get a lot of cloud cover, forcing the albedo effect at
the surface which lowers the input of solar energy onto the earth surface. That
then creates a lot more snowfall than raifall, building up glaciers and
spreading them southward from the poles. When the earth core cools enough to
stop putting so much water vapor up into the atmosphere, the sun gradually melts
the glaciers and they recede. Makes sense to me anyhow.

RE
——————————–

As you guys know, I have been researching various effects of what I believe is Core Heating of the Earth, which manifests itself both geologically in terms of more tectonic and volcanic activity, and in the climate as more powerful and destructive weather systems like Irene and the recent Tornados, one of which levelled most of Joplin, MO. and another whole bunch which cruised through Arkansas and Oklahoma a couple of months back.

I put up previously a few charts which show the increase in Heat Content of the Oceans over the last decade, roughly an order of magnitude increase from 10E22 Joules to 10E23 Joules.  This is matched by a similar increase in Frequency and Number of Earthquakes measuring above 5 on the Richter Scale, each of which dumps core earth  energy into the oceans when released in a quake or through vulcanism.

Anyhow, Irene got me back to doing some more research, and while on the NOAA Images lab page, I encountered a video about ocean acidification, which also is steadily increasing, which means decreasing in pH as the acidity scale is measured.  Here is a chart for the last 20 years showing the steady decline in pH of the world’s Oceans:

Starting from 1989, the average pH has dropped from 8.115 to about 8.08, a decrease of  .035 over 20 years.  If the trend continues, to bring the oceans down to a pH around 7.9 or so where coral reefs could no longer form, it probably takes about 60-80 years.  Not an immediate worry here, assuming the trend continues in this manner.  However, it could accelerate if the warming trend in the oceans continues here, which allows more CO2 to dissolve in the oceans from the atmosphere.  Besides the CO2, there is also the possibility of increasing sulfur emissions from subsea volcanoes.

Is there anything we can do about this? Not a damn thing really, the main question is whether the warming trend in the Oceans continues for this length of time.  If it has to do with passing through the Galactic Ecliptic, then hopefully we will begin to see a slowing of the Ocean Warming trend around 20-50 years down the line here.  On the other hand, we may get an effect where a lot of methane is released by clathrates over this time period, which will insulate the planet (greenhouse style) and continue the warming process much longer.

All in all, I would say we are moving in the direction of an ELE here, but it probably will take a while to play itself out unless we hurry it along with some man made tomfoolery.  Some Homo Sapiens may be able to avoid the ELE, because even if all the shell based ocean life is destroyed, unless the phytoplankton goes with it there should be some animal species that survive both in the oceans and on land.

One thing is for certain here, life is going to be much different for our grandchildren 100 years from now.

RE

Knarf plays the Doomer Blues

https://image.freepik.com/free-icon/musical-notes-symbols_318-29778.jpg

Support the Diner

Search the Diner

Surveys & Podcasts

NEW SURVEY

Renewable Energy

VISIT AND FOLLOW US ON DINER SOUNDCLOUD

" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D

Archives

Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-BX686_LakeMe_G_20130816175615.jpg

loading

Inside the Diner

Ugh. Capitalist Apologetics.The real problem is that the Poor don't have enough $MONEY$ 🤑.  So where do you get the money?  From the Rich, who have more than they need.  CFS.RE

One of the pet topics of anti-capitalists like Bernie Sanders is the gap between rich and poor. In their opinion, this is the greatest of the problems that afflict modern society. And yet the evidence they repeatedly cite in support of their claim that...

7 pic slide showNEWPORT, Ore. (AP) — With sunlight sparkling off surrounding Yaquina Bay, workers are putting up an ocean-studies building, smack in the middle of an area expected to one day be hit by a tsunami.Experts say it’s only a matter of time ...

The planet’s far North is burning. This summer, over 600 wildfires have consumed more than 2.4 million acres of forest across Alaska. Fires are also raging in northern Canada. In Siberia, choking smoke from 13 million acres – an area nearly the size of...

‘Crisis pregnancy centers’ seek to discourage women from getting abortions by ‘deceiving them about services they do or do not offer’[img]https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/670ff1a324c4ebbfbfb60748a14d9bbfda961a99/0_233_5364_3218/master/5364.jpg?wi...

Recent Facebook Posts

Trump 2020: Be Very Afraid

Trump 2020: Be Very Afraid– America is the first country to ever elect a Mad King, and the way things are going, we may be dumb enough to do..

58 minutes ago

How to contact the IRS if you haven't received your refund

From Business Insider:

2 hours ago

Disney is releasing a bunch of original movies on its upcoming streaming service. Here are the ones we know about so far.

From Business Insider:

2 hours ago

The best grilling gloves you can buy

From Business Insider:

2 hours ago

Prince Andrew says he's 'appalled' by sex abuse claims lobbed at Jeffrey Epstein and denies he participated in activities with underage women

Prince Andrew says he’s ‘appalled’ by sex abuse claims lobbed at Jeffrey Epstein and denies he participated in activities with underage women…

2 hours ago

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

Ugh. Capitalist Apologetics.The real problem is th [...]

One of the pet topics of anti-capitalists like Ber [...]

7 pic slide showNEWPORT, Ore. (AP) — With sunlight [...]

The planet’s far North is burning. This summer, ov [...]

‘Crisis pregnancy centers’ seek to discourage wome [...]

Diner Newz Feeds

  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

Doomstead Diner Daily August 19The Diner Daily is [...]

Plague-infected prairie dogs have shut down parts [...]

Doomstead Diner Daily August 18The Diner Daily is [...]

Quote from: UnhingedBecauseLucid on March 18, 2019 [...]

CleanTechnicaSupport CleanTechnica’s work via dona [...]

QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

Ugh. Capitalist Apologetics.The real problem is th [...]

One of the pet topics of anti-capitalists like Ber [...]

7 pic slide showNEWPORT, Ore. (AP) — With sunlight [...]

The planet’s far North is burning. This summer, ov [...]

‘Crisis pregnancy centers’ seek to discourage wome [...]

Scientists have unlocked the power of gold atoms b [...]

Quote from: azozeo on August 14, 2019, 10:41:33 AM [...]

Wisconsin Bill Would Remove Barrier to Using Gold, [...]

Under extreme conditions, gold rearranges its atom [...]

The cost of gold futures on the Comex exchange inc [...]

The Wasilla Fred Meyer has reopened.  They're [...]

Quote from: AJ on August 16, 2019, 03:08:52 AMYeah [...]

Yeah, anybody who follows the climate change catas [...]

Good Newz!  The less people the better!  More Salm [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

Meanderings By Cognitive Dissonance     Tis the Season Silly season is upon us. And I, for one, welc [...]

The Brainwashing of a Nation by Daniel Greenfield via Sultan Knish blog Image by ElisaRiva from Pixa [...]

A Window Into Our World By Cognitive Dissonance   Every year during the early spring awakening I qui [...]

Deaf, Dumb and Blind Who Is Better at Conceding They Are Wrong - Conservative or Liberal Extremists? [...]

The Apology: From baby boomers to the handicapped generations. by David Holmgren Re-posted from Holm [...]

Event Update For 2019-08-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-08-16http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-08-15http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-08-14http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-08-13http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

MbS, the personification of the age-old pre-revolutionary scenario in which an expiring regime attem [...]

Daily Doom Photo

man-watching-tv

Sustainability

  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

The Dark Cloud"Skynet needs to send a terminator back to 1984 and take out Mark Zuckerberg’s mom before he ca [...]

Accelerating Climate Solutions"When politicians set a lofty goal like zero emissions, engineers scramble." In 1834, Alex [...]

Roots"A foray into genealogy prompts some observations about the Anthropocene." Last week, an h [...]

The Hawkwood Elephant"Large-scale problems do not require large-scale solutions. They require only small-scale solut [...]

How the gourd killed the whale"It was a dried gourd that brought whales to the edge of extinction in the 19th Century. " [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

A new climate protest movement out of the UK has taken Europe by storm and made governments sit down [...]

The success of Apollo 11 flipped the American public from skeptics to fans. The climate movement nee [...]

Today's movement to abolish fossil fuels can learn from two different paths that the British an [...]

Why has it taken so long for the climate movement to accomplish so little? And how can we do better [...]

To fight climate change, you need to get the world off of fossil fuels. And to do that, you need to [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

If population can be greatly reduced, and the globe is much warmer, perhaps coal in Alaska and elsew [...]

I don't think gods tell us we are here forever. Gods tell us we are somewhere else forever, alt [...]

The devil is in the details. If the write-off can be done in a way that leaves the banks "whole [...]

We have expanded as far as we can reasonably expand. [...]

I know that peat moss played a huge role in the Netherland's rise to, at least temporarily, bec [...]

Hi Steve. I recently found what I believe is a little gem, and I'm quite confident you'd a [...]

The Federal Reserve is thinking about capping yields? I don't know how long TPTB can keep this [...]

As some one who has spent years trying to figure out what the limits to growth are. let me say that [...]

Peak oil definitely happened for gods sake. Just because it isn't mad max right now is no indic [...]

@Volvo - KMO says he made some life choices he regrets. Not sure what they were. And I don't th [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

An urban heat island (UHI) is a phenomenon that shows a higher temperature in urban areas compared t [...]

Passive microclimate frames are exhibition enclosures able to modify their internal climate in order [...]

European climate change objectives aim to reduce CO2 emissions, promote the spread of renewable ener [...]

Urban territorial expansion generated in the last decades has brought a series of consequences, such [...]

Institutions matter because they are instrumental in systematically adapting to global climate chang [...]