Failed State

Syrian Sickness

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Publishes on Cassandra's Legacy on November 22, 2015

Here, I argue that the origins of the Syrian collapse are to be found in the economic downturn generated by the gradual depletion of the Syrian oil reserves. Crude oil had created modern Syria, crude oil has destroyed it. This phenomenon can be termed the "Syrian Sickness" and the question is: "which country will be affected next?"

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The "Syrian Sickness": What Crude Oil Gives, Crude Oil Can Take Back.

Crude oil is a great source of wealth for the countries that possess it. But it is also a wealth that comes as a cycle. Normally, the cycle spans several decades, even more than a century, so that those who live through it may completely miss the fact that they are heading to an end of their wealth. But the cycle is faster and especially visible in those areas where the amount of oil is modest; there, wealth and misery appear one after the other in a dramatic series of events.

One of these rapid cycles of growth and decline is that of Syria. It is a country that never became a major world producer, its maximum output was less than 1% of the world's total production when it peaked, around 1995. (graph below, from Gail Tverberg's blog). For the small Syrian economy, however, even this limited amount was important.
 

The Syrian oil production went through its cycle over little more than three decades. Depletion generated progressively higher production costs and that led to a scarcity of capital investments to keep production increasing, eventually forcing it to decline. The result was the "bell shaped" production curve that is often called the "Hubbert curve". Around 2011, the internal consumption curve crossed the production curve and that transformed the country from an oil exporter to an oil importer. The cross-over point corresponded to the start of the civil war.

The IMF data show that the Syrian government's budget was still 25% dependent on oil in 2010. Data on what it was earlier on are hard to find, but it is clear that it must have been much larger. It may well be that, at the time of the peak, most of the government's revenues came from oil. Seen in this light, it is not surprising that the complete loss of these revenues generated a big turmoil.

So, we can build up a narrative of what happened in Syria after the peak. With progressively lower oil revenues, the government was less and less able to afford the bureaucracy and the social services it used to provide. Gradually, it became also unable to afford an efficient police force and a functioning army. The middle class, that had been strongly dependent on the government's handouts, was badly hit. The most educated and wealthy ones left the country or, at least, moved their financial assets abroad. Those who were forced to remain saw their assets destroyed by hyperinflation and became an impoverished urban proletariat. At the same time, the countryside also went through an economic disaster, enhanced by the droughts created by climate change. At this point, a large number of young men, unemployed and without hope for the future, become cannon fodder for religious fanatics and for local warlords, often paid by foreign powers interested in carving out the country in pieces to be distributed among themselves. The destruction of whatever was left was also helped by economic sanction and aerial bombardments. The final result is what we see: the "Syrian Sickness." A nearly terminal form of social sickness; it is hard to imagine when and how Syria will be able to recover even a shade of its former wealth and stability.

 

The factors that led to the Syrian disaster are by no means limited to Syria alone. Yemen went through a nearly identical cycle; going through the peak its oil production in 2002 at levels smaller than those of Syria, but probably even more important for the local economy. The cross-over point of the production and consumption curves took place in 2013 and, like Syria, the country is at present being destroyed by civil war and aerial bombardments.  (image from "crudeoilpeak")
 


There are several other examples of minor oil producers that went through similar cycles. Egypt, for instance, experienced the cross-over of production and consumption in 2010, experiencing a phase of dramatic civil unrest. Egypt, however, did not collapse; most likely because the importance of oil in its economy was not as large as it was for Syria. Other examples of countries that experienced the cross-over are Malaysia and Indonesia, also undergoing internal troubles, but no generalized collapse. No country is completely immune to the Syrian sickness, but some are less sensitive to it.

At this point, the question is obvious: given the known cases of Syrian Sickness, given that depletion is unavoidable, which country is next in line?

There are several candidates for a future crossover of production and consumption, but none seems to be very close to it. Venezuela, Iran, and Mexico may be the producers most at risk; but the critical moment may still be several years away in the future. But the most interesting and worrisome case is that of Saudi Arabia. The data shown below are from Mazamascience. Most producers of the Arabian peninsula (with the exception of Yemen) show a similar pattern.
 

You see that, despite the rapid increase in internal consumption, Saudi Arabia is still able to export about two thirds of its production. But how about the future? Of course, extrapolations are always dangerous, but it doesn't seem that the production and consumption curves are destined to cross each other very soon. Hence, the country might still have at least a couple of decades of substantial oil export revenues. The problem is that the Saudi economy is heavily dependent on oil: 90% of the government revenues come from oil. So, Saudi Arabia may not need to go through the cross-over point to start experiencing troubles. Consider that it is nearly completely dependent on imports for the food its population consumes, and that the trend is worsening because of the depletion of local aquifers. You can imagine what the problem could become in case of a substantial loss of financial resources coming from crude oil. If Saudi Arabia starts suffering of the Syrian Sickness, the result disaster may make the Syrian collapse pale in comparison.

Is there any hope for Saudi Arabia or any other producing country to avoid the Syrian Sickness? There are several ways to postpone or reverse the decline of oil production if sufficient financial resources are available. However, these are just stopgap measures: depletion is an irreversible process. A country can only prepare for it by building an alternative economic infrastructure while it is still possible; an opportunity that was missed in Syria. Today, Saudi Arabia doesn't lack the financial resource for massive investments in renewable energy, that would provide an alternative to the collapse created by depletion. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that these investments are being made, with the Saudi government preferring to engage in expensive military power games. That's a bad idea not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the whole world: with more than 10% of the world's oil consumption provided by producers in the Arabian Peninsula, you can imagine what might happen if the region falls victim of the Syrian Sickness.

Crude oil has given a lot to Saudi Arabia, crude oil can take back a lot from it. But there is something that crude oil can never provide, and it is wisdom necessary to manage it well.

Enter Jeb and Hil

From the keyboard of James Howard Kunstler
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Originally Published on Clusterfuck Nation June 15, 2015
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The Floridian clod seeking to don the mantle of Millard Fillmore made an amazing foreign policy speech at an economic conference in Berlin last week. Inveighing against Russian President Vladimir Putin, he gave a very vivid impression of a man who has no idea what he is talking about.

“Russia must respect the sovereignty of all of its neighbors. And who can doubt that Russia will do what it pleases if its aggression goes unanswered?”

Jeb Bush was averring elliptically to the failed state formerly known as Ukraine, trying to put over the shopworn story that Russia was needlessly making war on its neighbor (and former province).

“Bush called for increased clarity on what type of sanctions would be imposed on the country if Prime Minister Vladimir Putin does not back down against a united international front…. ‘I don’t think we should be reacting to bad behavior [Bush said]. By being clear what the consequences of “bad behavior” is in advance, I think we will deter the kind of aggression that we fear from Russia. But always reacting, and giving the sense we’re reacting in a tepid fashion, only enables the bad behavior of Putin.’”

Note, by the way, that here is yet another scion of the Bush clan who was inexplicably brought up speaking Ebonics: “What the consequences… is?”  Say what?

Ukraine became a failed state due to a coup d’état engineered by Barack Obama’s state department. US policy wonks did not like the prospect of Ukraine joining Russia’s regional trade group called the Eurasian Customs Union instead of tilting toward NATO and the European Union. So, we paid for and enabled a coalition of crypto-fascists to rout the duly elected president. One of the first acts of the US-backed new regime was to declare punishment of Russian language speakers, and so the predominately Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine revolted. Russia reacted to all this instability by seizing the Crimean peninsula, which had been part of Russia proper both before and through the Soviet chapter of history. The Crimea contained Russia’s only warm water seaports and naval bases. What morons in the US government ever thought Russia would surrender those assets to a newly-failed neighbor state?

Was Vladimir Putin acting irresponsibly in this case? The opposite would be a much more logical conclusion. And what interest does the United States have in Ukraine? Surely no more than Russia would have in Texas. And when else in the entire history of the USA all the way back to George Washington did any government official declare Ukraine to be America’s business? Answer: Never. Reason: we have no legitimate interests in that corner of the world. So why in the early 21st century are we making this such a sore spot in our foreign relations? Because our waning influence in the world, in turn a product of our foolish inattention to our own economic problems and failing polity at home, is driving America batshit crazy.

The rest of the world sees this for exactly what it is, friends, former friends, and adversaries alike. I wonder what the Germans thought of Jeb’s intemperate and idiotic speech. Eyes must have rolled in the meeting hall. After all, Russia is their natural major trading partner. How do US-orchestrated economic sanctions against Russia work in their interest? Answer: they don’t. The Germans have been making a lot of discreet noises the past year about dissociating from America’s stupid program of antagonizing Russia. Perhaps Jeb’s jingoistic utterances in Berlin will finally push them over the line.

Meanwhile, Hillary (no last name required) steps out of the starting gate this week, too, pretending to be the incarnation of Robin Hood, as if she would ever shut down the financial rackets that have at once impoverished the former middle-class and enriched grifter opportunists such as Hillary herself. Her event on Roosevelt Island, New York City, looked like unintentional self-satire, as if it were staged by the late-great director Robert Altman for one of his wacky political movies. Hillary’s handlers missed one touch though: a cape would have gone nicely with that electrifying blue pant-suit. As for the speech itself, a bigger bundle of platitudes and insincerities has not been served up since the heyday of Nixon. As the politicians are so fond of saying these days, make no mistake, Hillary is the New Nixon.

 

 

James Howard Kunstler is the author of many books including (non-fiction) The Geography of Nowhere, The City in Mind: Notes on the Urban Condition, Home from Nowhere, The Long Emergency, and Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology and the Fate of the Nation. His novels include World Made By Hand, The Witch of Hebron, Maggie Darling — A Modern Romance, The Halloween Ball, an Embarrassment of Riches, and many others. He has published three novellas with Water Street Press: Manhattan Gothic, A Christmas Orphan, and The Flight of Mehetabel.

Weak Sister

Off the keyboard of James Howard Kunstler

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Originally Published on Clusterfuck Nation  March 24, 2014

 

Was it such a good thing in the post-cold-war decades that the US was regarded as the supreme sole super-power? Look what we did with that privilege: fumbled around like an overfed stumblebum, blundering from one foreign occupation to another, breaking a lot of things and killing a lot of people — under the clownishly-conceived rubric of a “war on terror.”

     Why is it in our interest which way Ukraine tilts? It has been in the Russian orbit for hundreds of years under one administration or another. Are we disappointed now that Kiev won’t answer to the floundering Eurocrats of Brussels? Was that ever a realistic expectation? Really, the best outcome for western Europe would be a return to the prior condition of Ukraine as a mute bearskin rug with oil and gas pipelines running through it to the oil and gas starved West. The idea that the US could supply Europe with oil and gas instead of Russia is a preposterous fantasy. Anybody wondering whether Ukraine might turn its armed forces loose on Russian forces supposedly massing at its border should ask themselves how Ukrainian soldiers will get paid.

     I’m sure Russia can’t afford to annex all of Ukraine. Russia can barely maintain its paved roads. But it obviously couldn’t afford to give up its rented warm water ports and naval bases in the Crimea, either, with the new Kiev government making so much anti-Russian noise since the “revolution.” The annexation of Crimea changes nothing materially about the disposition of Russian military force in the region. They were already there. Given the size of their navy compared to the other nations in the neighborhood, the Black Sea is Russia’s bathtub and has been as long as anyone can remember. Was the brass at the US State Department shocked to discover this two weeks ago?

     The recognition that there are some places on the planet where the US can’t exert its influence has also come as a shock to the so-called American Deep State — that matrix of bureaucratic toxic sludge that labors to pretend to control everything and succeeds mainly in embarrassing itself in a world that is now deeply tending away from the centralized control of anything. Nations are breaking up everywhere and for the moment there is no coherent public discussion of the ramifications. Venice voted the other day to secede from Italy — that is, to not send anymore tax revenue to Rome. That should be interesting. How about Scotland’s independence vote scheduled for September? Judging by the British newspapers, there is next-to-zero concern about that. Then there is the list of failed states, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and probably half the manufactured nations of sub-Saharan Africa, places with no viable economy or polity and too many clamoring poor people. These are parts of the world that will neither develop nor redevelop. In a hundred years they could be no-go zones or just return to howling wilderness.

     The US would be better served these days to literally mind its own business. With Detroit in bankruptcy, why would we send Kiev billions of dollars? American urban infrastructures — water, sewer, gas, and electric lines — are falling apart. We have no idea how we’re going to manage most of the crucial economic activities of daily life in ten years, when the illusions of shale gas and shale evaporate in a dark cloud of disenchantment, when we no longer have an airline industry, and most Americans won’t have the means to own automobiles, and there’s not enough diesel fuel to plow Iowa mega-farms, or enough oil and gas based fertilizers or herbicides to pour into the eroding topsoil, and not enough fossil water left in the Oglala aquifer or enough electricity to run the center-pivot sprinklers where the prairie meets the desert? How are Americans going to live and eat and get from Point A to Point B and keep a roof over our heads in this beat-down land?

    We’re having no conversation about these things and the political landscape in this country is a wasteland of mirages and dust devils. That is the true weakness of the USA now. We’re incapable of seeing the disorder in our own house. Why should we even glance overseas at others?

 

***

James Howard Kunstler is the author of many books including (non-fiction) The Geography of Nowhere, The City in Mind: Notes on the Urban Condition, Home from Nowhere, The Long Emergency, and Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology and the Fate of the Nation. His novels include World Made By Hand, The Witch of Hebron, Maggie Darling — A Modern Romance, The Halloween Ball, an Embarrassment of Riches, and many others. He has published three novellas with Water Street Press: Manhattan Gothic, A Christmas Orphan, and The Flight of Mehetabel.

 

Homo Collaboratus

Off the keyboard of RE

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In his recent article The End of Technocracy and Zero Government, Steve from Virginia tracked the progress of the City of Detroit to the status of “Failed State”.  Not just Detroit is in this situation of course, you see it progressing all over the world from Somalia, to Egypt to Greece…and not long to arrive in Italy or France either.  Whose fault is this?  Where does the BLAME lie for the failure of this model?

The ‘Blame the Victim’ Game in Detroit

In areas where technocracy has been installed such as Greece, both the initial conditions and the failure of the process is blamed on the inhabitants. Greeks are ‘corrupt tax-cheats and lazy’. Detroiters are ‘stupid, drug-crazed Negro savages bent on murder and destruction’, French are ‘near-communists and cowards’, Irish are ‘ugly … drunken child molesters’. The purpose of the blame game is distraction while retirement savings are stolen by the establishment. The elderly ‘deserve what they (don’t) get! The blame game hits the target by appearing to miss it.

In Detroit, the citizens didn’t chase retail stores away, they didn’t over-invest in the auto industry, they didn’t ghettoize the city with ill-conceived developments and a web of freeways, they didn’t pollute the city with lead, zinc, chromium, mercury, toxic petroleum-based chemicals, they didn’t sell the city out to billionaire developers.

The citizens didn’t pave the city over with parking lots or built thousands of monstrously ugly concrete box- buildings. Detroiters are being shot by criminals, being driven out by block busting and urban decay, losing what little property wealth they had, having already lost hundreds of thousands of jobs. Detroiters have been abandoned by their country not the other way around.

The US spends hundreds of billions of dollars in Afghanistan, why not Detroit?

Why not Detroit?  Basically because it’s burned out, polluted flotsam of the Age of Oil, and costs too much to clean up.  Predatory Capitalism doesn’t clean up the messes it leaves behind, it moves on to make new messes elsewhere, always promising the inhabitants a “better standard of living”, which a few Elites get while the rest of the herd is left hung out to dry.

Steve isn’t the ONLY Blogger tracking Failed State development, John Ward also has been cateloguing the collapse of the Greek State, as well as numerous others in Europe.

Greece is the first country Russell has ever cut to emerging from developed market status, although given the state of the EU it seems highly unlikely it’ll be the last. The Russells haven’t considered doing the same to Spain and Italy just yet, the paper says, because ‘we haven’t seen the same degree of decline as we’ve observed in Greece’. The two conclusions I draw from that are first, Russell guys need to get out more; and second, the company has a lot to learn yet about Spanish accounting, and Italian reporting accuracy. Don’t forget, this latter is the country whose Hadron Collider scientists only six months ago got the speed of Light wrong.

But the main thing it is still hard for the casual observer to get his head round is what you are if you emerge, having once been developed. The vagueness, it seems to me, lies in the interim bit between the two states of Being. In 1936, Nazi Germany was a developed State led by a lunatic, which was then crushed to a pulp by British, American and Russian forces who’d become a tad concerned about the Fatherland’s wanderlust habit. The interim stage was the crushing thing. This is what’s missing from the Russell Investments analysis about recent Greek history.

Why does it progress in this fashion? Going back to November of 2011, I wrote an article titled Homo Collaboratus on Reverse Engineering looking at the progress toward failed State in Egypt. I am going to quote the article in full, since it is not accessible to non-members of Reverse Engineering.

Egypt is now in its 3rd Day of an increasingly Bloody “Revolution”, where all that the Military Repression has succeeded in doing is bringing still MORE “Protesters” back  into the streets….AGAIN. You can see here how and why even having vast techno power against protest eventually does FAIL, because of the Power of Numbers.

What I read in one MSM report was a quote from one member of the Military Junta currently running Egypt, which was that all this mayhem would succeed in doing was “Destroying the State”. That is a paraphrase, but essentially was his analysis, and its also quite TRUE.

The Hodgepodge of People out there on the street throwing Rocks have NO CLUE on how to set up a WORKING Goobermint, and once you pile them all together inside any kind of Newly Elected Parliament the Bickering will start all over again, and whomsoever they Choose to lead any new Goobermint will be just as powerless to bring any equity to their economic system as the last Dimwit Power Seeker was.

It’s the road obviously to a FAILED STATE, like say Somalia or Zimbabwe already are. The old soviet Union also turned into a Failed State, but they recoallesced into the smaller States it was composed of and briefly have slowed the devolution there. However, Eastern Europe is now on the brink of catastrophic debt collapse, and eventually here you will also get Failed States in places like Hungary and all the Balkan States.

Failed Nation States will become the Norm here over time, rather than the Exception that they are now in places like Somalia and Zimbabwe. In each Failed Nation State, people are dropping down to the next level of Organization, Tribal Affiliation. This as I see it is the medium term result which will occur through all Nation States as smaller groups of people Herd together for Self-Preservation.

In places like Afghanistan where they are not all that long removed from their Tribal Affiliations, the Pashtuns will gather together again fairly naturally, but what of Lazarus? Lazarus in this case being the vast multicultural diaspora of people who came to live in the FSofA, who have no real “Traditional Tribe” here and who have lived for generations under the political system of the Nation
State? Can they, WILL THEY be able to form up Tribes for mutual Survival and Protection?

In my general POSITIVE Spin on this topic, I believe that they WILL in fact form up such Tribes SPONTANEOUSLY. My rationale for this is as follows.

Homo Sapiens demonstrates BOTH the traits of Predatory Animals and Herd Animals alternately, depending on circumstances. It’s likely one of the main reasons Homo Sapiens has been such a successful species overall, the adaptability to take on different survival paradigms dependent on circumstance. Real Herd Animals like Buffalo can never become Predators, and real Predators like Lions can never function as Herd Animals, but Homo Sapiens can function either way, pretty much equally successful either way also.

The circumstances we have been living under for the last few 1000 years is one of general Surplus in the environment, which Favored the Predatory paradigm. We have many Herd Homo Sapiens and a few Predators who live well by predating on most of the Herd. However, as the herd is Culled here, the Predators will die in greater numbers by percentage than the Herd does. If you look at any complex ecosystem with predators and prey, once the prey drops below a certain level the predators drop off a cliff. They essentially disappear. The “Ponzi” that is the Food Chain works from the Bottom Up, the Predators cannot be successful until the Prey is available in sufficient quantity to support them.

The Herding tendency in Homo Sapiens is evident any time the species is confronted by massive external stress. You see it whenever a Tornado Hits a Small town. All of a SUDDEN, people who otherwise simply can’t stand each other are all Pulling Together to dig others out of the Rubble. You see it in OWS. All of a sudden, generally Middle Class people become ACCEPTING of the long term Homeless in their midst, and they in fact LEARN from them strategies to handle living on the Street. Don’t drop your Tent onto the Ground, put it up on Pallets so you’re not losing Heat into the ground from your Sleeping Bag. Etc.

IMHO, OWS is the BEGINNING of a NEW TRIBAL Paradigm here in the FSofA, with those who are already off the cliff or close to it gathering together in HERDS for self-protection and SURVIVAL in the face of the Predators, exemplified by the Gestapo who Pepper Spray them and fire the Tear Gas Canisters at them.

MANY of the Herd will DIE here. But NOT as many by percentage as the Predators. The very ACT of Protest and Forming Up the Circle of the Herd is what will PROTECT the Herd in the end. They will lose many on the periphery. But they will also STAMPEDE the Predators.

In the end, they will almost all go to the Great Beyond. However, some of the herd will make it through, some of them will retreat into the Mountains, the Great Wall that GOD built to protect the Independent Souls of the World. The Predators will Die Off, and over time, the Herd will reproduce and RETURN from the Mountains to once again populate the Flatlands.

Where once again, if all goes as it has gone here so many times and in so many ecosystems, the predators will emerge once again. For Homo Sapiens however, who remain adaptable and who DO have the ability to LEARN, perhaps in the next go round we can make the LEAP to a new species, Homo Collaboratus, the first Species EVER to jump beyond the Predator and Prey paradigm. it is my great HOPE that those who do survive this latest incarnation of Armageddon will be the progenitors of Homo Collaboratus. Certainly, the incarnation of Homo Industrialis has been a Magnificent FAILURE here, and one we will not repeat again.

Sadly, I will not be around to see this from this side of the Great Divide, unless perhaps I do return in another corporeal incarnation. Even if that does not occur though, I’ll see it to be sure.

I’ll see it, and you, from the Other Side.

RE

The progession to Failed State is inexorable, baked into the cake of the monetary system.  Depending on the resources and technology available, it can expand itself for a few Centuries, perhaps a Millenia before it reaches the Growth limits.  Although the Collapse is Gathering Steam now, it’s been underway a LONG time for anyone with their Eyes Open to see.

When I was in HS in NY Shity,  the City was BROKE.  The Subways were dilapidated, apartment complexes built in the 40s and 50s were Roach Motels.  My Aunt and Uncle lived in an awful complex called Vanderveer in Brooklyn.  Fortunately they lived on the 1st floor, because the elevators never worked.  Nothing was ever maintained, and none of it ever paid for itself in terms of “increased productivity”.  That was always just a euphimism for increased energy wastage.

The folks in charge of Credit Creation financed all of it through Debt, even JP Morgan didn’t have Gold enough in his Basement Safe to finance building the Railroads.  He also sure was not going to pay Irish and Chinese Coolies in Gold either.

These folks have refinaced themselves innumerable times, back in the 70s about ALL the major Banking Houses should have gone broke from Bad Loans made to South America in the 5os and 60s, when my dad was in the Biz of making those loans.  Financial Legerdermain kept it rolling, but it doesn’t work FOREVER.

You can’t create new Resources by issuing more credit.  Without copious resources to waste, its pointless to issue more credit. The ONLY reason more Credit gets extended to Greece now is to keep the whole House of Cards floating another day.  Nobody in their right mind can possibly believe Greece can ever pay its debts.

So, one by one they collapse, the Somalias, the Egypts, the Greeces and the Detroits.  The Money Masters and the Political Class work together in a Kabuki Theatre, trying to manage the collapse by blaming the Victims while preserving their own wealth and status.

The fact the collapse is accelerating now makes it clear these folks cannot control it anymore.  The last 40 years since the 1970s has been all about Financialism as a means of containment, but it is running out of steam. The old tricks just ain’t WORKING anymore.

All due respect to John Michael Greer and fans of the idea of a Slow “Boiling Frog”  form of catabolic collapse notwithstanding, systems as complex as this one eventually reach a “tipping point”, beyond which they can no longer function.  5 years ago when I began writing on collapse topics, NOBODY ventured the opinion a European Nation like Greece or now also Italy and Spain would be on the cusp of Failed State status, with numbers like 50% Youth Unemployment and GDP figures dropping like a rock.

It may seem “slow” to you on the span of your life for it to take 5 years for Greece to descend from “functioning” industrial economy to FAILED STATE, but even on the scale of the industrial revolution as a whole that is mighty fast.  If you figure the Industrialization of Greece began with the Marshall Plan in the aftermath of WWII, it took them about 60 years from 1945 to 2005 to reach the Zenith of Industrialism there, and it has just about ALL been undone in the last 5 years.  Greek “factories” are not producing Jack Shit, if they ever did.  About the only big Industry out of Greece was Shipping, and their Shipyards are Ghost Towns now, there is overcapacity of ships, international trade is collapsing and the Baltic Dry Index is so low you could hire a ship wit your Unmployment Check.

How long do we have HERE in the FSoA before it also is a Failed State?  The takeover of Detroit by the State of Michigan is a Canary in the Coal Mine which should let you know the collapse has begun in earnest now here.  Michigan itself is of course no more solvent than Detroit, so eventually will be “taken over by Da Federal Goobermint.  Who will take them over?  The Ferengi?

That the FSoA will devolve to a Failed State is not a hypothetical, it WILL occur, and based on the timelines already apparent in Europe, it will not take more than another decade to be apparent even to those Ostriches with their heads most deeply buried in the sand.

The fact though that it probably will take that long gives people in the FSofA aware of this a short Window of Time to prepare for it, and Reverse Engineer for themselves a non-industrial way of life.  You have to get started NOW in Collaboration with others to make such a transition possible.

Homo Industrialis and Homo Predatorus is going the way of the Dinosaur.  Only Homo Collaboratus and Homo Herdus can survive the Zero Point.  Form your Tribe NOW!  Circle the Wagons.  Defend the weak and the innocent.  STAMPEDE the PREDATORS.

Bring ON the POWER of NUMBERS.  We are not Sheeple.  We are BISON.  In number, NOTHING can stop us.  It is time now to STAMPEDE.

RE

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QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

Are we really going to rank students on a one-to-1 [...]

The GOP’s Commission for the Promotion of Virtue a [...]

Two-and-a-half years into his presidency, Donald T [...]

KAIBETO, Ariz. (AP) — Miranda Haskie sits amid the [...]

Dear Readers, Things in Venezuela are getting mess [...]

Quote from: Golden Oxen on April 27, 2019, 01:49:4 [...]

Quote from: Eddie on April 25, 2019, 09:09:46 AMQu [...]

Quote from: Golden Oxen on April 25, 2019, 04:33:0 [...]

                             Judy Shelton Is Right [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

A Window Into Our World By Cognitive Dissonance   Every year during the early spring awakening I qui [...]

Deaf, Dumb and Blind Who Is Better at Conceding They Are Wrong - Conservative or Liberal Extremists? [...]

The Apology: From baby boomers to the handicapped generations. by David Holmgren Re-posted from Holm [...]

Society Is Made Of Narrative. Realizing This Is Awakening From The Matrix. By Caitlin Johnstone Orig [...]

But We Need the Eggs Re-posted from Epsilon Theory   Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory is one of those rare [...]

Event Update For 2019-05-17http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-05-16http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-05-15http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-05-14http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2019-05-13http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

MbS, the personification of the age-old pre-revolutionary scenario in which an expiring regime attem [...]

Daily Doom Photo

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Sustainability

  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

What is your climate pawprint?"If US dogs had their own country it would be bigger than 200 other countries and likely be on [...]

Orellana's Robots"Climate scientists are now connecting the dots and starting to glimpse how a terra preta thera [...]

Can some nut unseat King Corn?"Acornucopia is sprouting under a tree near you."“I am partial to the peculiar and wholeso [...]

Cheddar and the Leafcutters"What can you do when geophysics outpaces evolution?"My personal ancestry has a major limb [...]

Pushing on to Venus"We need to stop our warming ways or there will be Hell to pay." I sometimes look back at [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

To fight climate change, you need to get the world off of fossil fuels. And to do that, you need to [...]

Americans are good on the "thoughts and prayers" thing. Also not so bad about digging in f [...]

In the echo-sphere of political punditry consensus forms rapidly, gels, and then, in short order…cal [...]

Discussions with figures from Noam Chomsky and Peter Senge to Thich Nhat Hanh and the Dalai Lama off [...]

Lefty Greenies have some laudable ideas. Why is it then that they don't bother to really build [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

So we've ruined this Planet, we're ruining outer space and we want to start life on other [...]

If I lived in Southern Florida, I would be a lot more concerned about the effects of sea level rise [...]

From the table of contents of the report, Kissinger and others well looking at fertility reduction t [...]

How do pension funds make money at these interest rates? [...]

Hi Steve. I recently found what I believe is a little gem, and I'm quite confident you'd a [...]

The Federal Reserve is thinking about capping yields? I don't know how long TPTB can keep this [...]

As some one who has spent years trying to figure out what the limits to growth are. let me say that [...]

Peak oil definitely happened for gods sake. Just because it isn't mad max right now is no indic [...]

@Volvo - KMO says he made some life choices he regrets. Not sure what they were. And I don't th [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

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Simplifying the Final Countdown

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Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

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Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

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Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

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SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

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Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

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Merry Doomy Christmas

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Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

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Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

The creation of realistic gridded precipitation fields improves our understanding of the observed cl [...]

A recent article reviewed data on Great Salt Lake (Utah) and concluded falsely that climate changes, [...]

Stretching along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota, The Red River Valley (RRV) of the North h [...]

The idea of compact cities is attracting enthusiasts, and some have proposed sustainable options for [...]