Floods

Brace for impact: Super El Niño

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on November 20, 2015, and on Peak Resources

Source: Climate Central, 2015

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As I have mentioned in a previous post, 2015/16 El Niño period have shown signs of becoming stronger than the devastating 1997/98 El Niño. Now weekly measurements are showing that it indeed has passed the record high of 1997/98 with temperatures in the central Pacific of 3°C above normal. November is likely to be strongest month of the El Niño season that lasts until spring next year.

Source: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

 

The ongoing El Niño has already caused a number of serious impacts globally. For example, warmer waters have lead to major coral bleaching events and according to the UN, 11 million children are at risk from hunger, disease and lack of water in eastern and southern Africa, while 2.3 million people in Central America will need food aid as El Niño exacerbates a prolonged drought.

 

Regional Impacts


South East Asia: Dryer conditions in Southeast Asia has helped fuel massive peatland wildfires in Indonesia. This has caused dense haze to cover many parts of Indonesia and neighbouring countries with serious health impacts for local populations and has released a huge amount of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, making Indonesia a major contributor to climate change.


South Asia: Lack of precipitation in India due to changes in the southwest monsoon has also caused dryer conditions and risk of drought with potentially serious impacts on farmers and subsistence livelihoods. Especially since India suffered a deficient monsoon, lack of precipitation, last year as well. Meanwhile in Myanmar (Burma) a Tropical Storm drenched the western region and caused a massive landslide. More than 17,000 homes were destroyed, 46 people were killed, and hundreds of thousands of people were affected by the storm.


Southern Africa: A number of countries in southern Africa are reporting below average rainfall leading to drought conditions and fears of food insecurity. South Africa is in the midst of its worst drought since 1982, with 2.7 million households facing water shortages and farmers that cannot plant crops because of lack of precipitation. Some cities have implemented water restrictions, drastically reducing the amount of water residents can use. Regional prices for staple foods like maize meal, bread, eggs and chicken are up several percentage points. “When the maize crop goes down, the circumstances for social unrest go up … This is exactly how the Arab spring in the Middle East started,” said Louis Meintjes, president of the Transvaal Agriculture Union.


South America: Ecuador and Peru has suffered from flooding, extensive erosion, mudslides with loss of lives and infrastructure as well as damage to food supplies. Peru has declared a state of emergency as the country prepares itself for the worst weather system in over 60 years. Eastern Brazil is experiencing a major drought, driven by population pressure and deforestation, that could be worsened by dryer El Niño conditions. Satellite data shows the southeast of Brazil losing 56 trillion liters of water in each of the past three years – more than enough to fill Lake Tahoe. Water rationing, power blackouts and empty reservoirs in parts of the country have become a reality. More than 11,000 forest fires have been observed in the Amazonas province of Brazil this year, a 47% increase over the same period last year, according to the National Institute for Space Research. The storms that usually keep the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America wet shift northward to the southern US during strong El Niño winters. According to the World Food Program, 3.5 million people in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador need food aid due to drought and crop failures.

North America: According to NOAA, almost 95% of U.S. coral reefs will have been exposed to ocean conditions that can cause corals to bleach by the end of the year. El Niño has also contributed to a very active tropical cyclone season in the Western North Pacific and Eastern North Pacific. Hurricane Patricia, which made landfall in Mexico on 24 October, was reportedly the most intense tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere ever recorded. While category 5 Hurricane Patricia weakened rapidly after hitting the rugged terrain along Mexico’s Pacific coast, remnants of the storm combined with other weather systems over the Gulf of Mexico to produce heavy downpours and widespread flooding in Texas and Louisiana


 

El Niño conditions and disease risk

The development of these conditions has important implications for global public health. Multiple epidemiological studies have linked El Niño events with increased incidence of disease outbreaks.

 


 

Disease

Region

Climatic influence

Cholera

Great Lakes region, Bangladesh, India (coastal), Sri Lanka, Peru

Warmer water temperatures promote bacteria proliferation; flooding causes contamination of water sources.

Dengue

Indonesia, Thailand, Pacific Islands, Australia (Queensland), Mexico, United States (southern), Colombia, Ecuador (coastal)

Water storage promotes mosquito vector breeding; elevated temperatures reduce the incubation period.Elevated rainfall promotes mosquito breeding.

Hantavirus

China (eastern), United States (southwest)

Elevated rainfall increases food availability for rodents which expands populations and may promote contact with humans.

Leishmaniasis

Brazil (eastern), Costa Rica, Colombia

Warmer temperatures or dry conditions may favor sand fly vectors or contribute to waning human immunity (e.g., via malnutrition or temporarily suppressing disease transmission).

Malaria

China (Anhui Province), India/Pakistan (Punjab), Sri Lanka, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela

Elevated rainfall promotes mosquito vector breeding and survival.

Plague

Madagascar, United States (western)

Heavy rains increase food availability for populations of susceptible rodents; cooler temperatures may increase infectious flea abundance.

Rift Valley Fever

East Africa

Flooding of dry mosquito vector habitats promotes hatching of infected eggs, vector breeding and survival.

Respiratory Illness

Southeast Asia/Indonesia

forest fires cause air pollution that may increase risk of respiratory infection

Adapted from Chretien et al. (2015)

The Diner Lens: 2015 Issue 1

Photographergc2reddit-logoEdited by Golden Oxen

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 31, 2015

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With this issue, we begin a new Feature here on the Doomstead Diner, The Diner Lens TM.  Diners have a long tradition of collecting images from around the net depicting the ongong Collapse of Industrial Civiliation in the Diner Art & Photography Forum.

We also include many graphics and videos with our Blogs, but The Diner Lens TM will be dedicated solely to photos (with captions), and the images will speak for themselves.  Credit will be given to the photographer when we can find the credit.

Photography Editor for The Diner Lens is Golden Oxen, moderator of the Diner Art & Photography Forum.

RE

Now, this Week's Top 5 Doom Pics!

Refugees and migrants arrive aboard the passenger ferry Blue Star Patmos from the island of Lesbos at the port of Piraeus, near Athens, Greece, Oct. 29, 2015. More than half a million migrants have transited through Greece so far this year, many fleeing Syria's civil war on a short but perilous crossing from Turkey on inflatable rubber boats. (REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis)

Refugees and migrants sit atop a heavily-listing small vessel as they try to travel from the Turkish coast to Skala Sykaminias on the northeastern Greek island of Lesbos on Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. Authorities in Greece say 21 people have died in other islands after two boats carrying migrants and refugees from Turkey to Greece sank overnight, in the latest deadly incidents in the eastern Aegean Sea. (AP Photo/Kostis Ntantamis)

Paramedics evacuate a wounded Palestinian attacker in Jerusalem on Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. The Palestinian stabbed and seriously wounded a man at a station of Jerusalem's light rail Friday before he was shot and wounded by Israeli forces, police said. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

A car washed up against a tree in Cyprus Creek, a tributary of the Blanco River, in Wimberley, Texas, on Oct. 30. More than 200 low-water crossings were closed due to the storm, which hit in the same area where flooding in late May caused more than 20 deaths. Illana Panich-Linsman / Reuters

A girl cries as hundreds of migrants wait to cross to Austria, in Sentilj, Slovenia. Darko Bandic / AP

A World of Shit

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Aired on the Doomstead Diner on April 26, 2014

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Snippet:

…3- Daily Bizarre Weather Story– Latest is Sandstorms in China, but of course you get the regular 500 year Floods occurring every year, F5 Tornados flattening trailer parks at HFT rates, “Perfect Storms” hitting everywhere from Atlantic City to the Phillipines and HaBoobs bigger than Raquel Welch’s Boobs were before they went saggy…

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For the rest, LISTEN TO THE RANT!

RE

RE’s Geological & Cosmological Event Watch

Posted originally on TPB on 12th March 2011 by Reverse Engineer  in Economy |Social Issues |Technology

Note: This article was written in the direct aftermath of the Tsunami which led to the meltdownn of the Nukes at Fuk-U-Shima.  Not all the predictions I made in the heat of the moment have come true…yet.  However, most of the analysis here I think is still correct, so I put it up unedited from its original version.

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I had a nice Daily Rant about ¾ done yesterday following up on the issue brought up in the Lawrence of Arabia thread regarding Winston Churchill and the behavior of the Anglo branch of the Illuminati which I was going to finish up tonight, however that post is now on Indefinite Hold due to Geological and Cosmological events swamping out the Man Made economic disaster, currently unfolding in real time on the island of Honshu.

I started a Geological and Cosmological Event Watch 3 years ago on the Peak Oil board when the increasing frequency of active volcanism and earthquakes was first becoming apparent. This is a fun thread to read if you have a LOT of time on your hands. LOL. My friend Stormbringer and I covered the Earthquake Swarms in Yellowstone in one of the longest running threads on that board ever, it ran over 80 pages and more than 1200 comments long. We had contributions from geologists working for the USGS along with Rock Docs from the Oil Patch all contributing to the thread.

The general consensus was that there was definitely increasing geological activity and that we would definitely be seeing “The Big One” coming down the pipe, though of course nobody could pinpoint where it would strike or exactly when. Now, I don’t know if you want to categorize the Sendai Quake and Tsunami as “THE” Big One, or just “A” Big One, but by all measures “Big One” does apply to this event.

Now so far the MSM is studiously avoiding estimates on Loss of Life for this event past the “more than 1000” level, but given the size of the Tsunami, variously estimated at 7 meters high to 10 meters high which traveled inland some 30KM or so in one of the most densely populated regions on earth, the final tally on this one is almost certainly going to surpass the Indonesian Tsunami which took out over 200,000 Human Souls. This is not even including any further problems that might come down the pipe from the currently overheating Nukes, nor does it take into account the firestorms raging in various cities and towns in the area.

 

The last MSM story I read described the scene in Tokyo as “Apocalyptic”, with many fires raging, and the epicenter of the quake was FAR from Tokyo. At least 4 Commuter Trains have been listed as “Missing”. Many people still remain trapped in

Elevators and in the Tokyo Subway system. Besides the currently offline Nukes, many Thermal plants and Hydro plants are still offline. Fresh Water supplies have been contaminated over a vast area. In the area where the Tsunami has receeded, rescue teams still cannot get in because the roads have been washed away.

All in all, this disaster makes Katrina look like small potatoes. By itself with a population of 1M people, Sendai is bigger than New Orleans was pre-Katrina. Thing is, the Tsunami hit all along a densely populated coastline over at least 200 kilometers and moved 30 km inland, and the total population affected is far more than 1M people. Its just mind boggling.

Like Katrina, this story is going to be dominating the Newz for weeks and months to come here, at least until we get an even BIGGER Black Swan flying in for a landing. Trying to predict how the Manipulated Financial markets will react to this next week is nearly impossible, though I will make a stab at it later in this article. The Japanese are going to float Bonds here, which Helicopter Ben is likely to buy up en masse with more freshly printed Dollar digibits. Oil may DROP in price because so many Nip Oil Refineries are offline and no longer demand the Oil. Resultant from that, to get enough Gas and Diesel, the Nips will have to import the stuff already refined, and for gasoline particularly that is a difficult thing to do, because it is so volatile. Very specialized tankers necessary for that, and there are not many of them. Basically, virtually INSTANTLY, a large area of one of the most Industrialized First World countries is facing all the system breakdowns of energy, transportation and sanitation/water supply to be expected more gradually from general Oil starvation. Besides that, a significant portion of their Rice Crop has been destroyed.

This isn’t Haiti folks, its not poor black folks in a 3rd world hell hole. It’s fucking JAPAN. One wonders how NHK MSM is going to cover it. As a Client State of the FSofA since WWII, one suspects they will be quite controlled in what Newz actually gets dispersed. This will be a real TEST of the alternative media of the Blogosphere and of individuals using their Cell Phones to capture and distribute the images across the net.

So, what is causing this, and what can we expect in the future? Explaining it categorically with proven scientific “facts”isn’t possible (Muckabout is sure to take this paragraph to task.LOL), but there are some curious coincidences to consider. Right before this Quake, the Sun had one of its biggest Magnetic Storms in years. Up here on the Last Great Frontier, the Aurora Borealis was simply EXTRAORDINARY the night before the quake. The Earth’s molten core is mostly Iron, and changes in the magnetic field could be creating a lot of stress on the spinning field it creates itself. How much physical stress that puts on the plates and how much heat stress you get is open to conjecture, but on a planetary scale it most certainly could add up to a lot of energy transfer through the whole of the Solar system. Remember your Thermodynamics, Energy is neither created nor destroyed, just transferred from one form to another. If the Sun shoots out a TSUNAMI of magnetic flux directed at the Earth, its going to get transferred into the earth. It did that, evidenced by the spectacular light show we got from the Northern Lights. The Solar Cycle we are expected to go into here Peaking in 2013 has more of these magnetic storms occurring more frequently. So if there is a relationship between Heliomagnetic Storms and Terrestrial Geophysical events, then they are going to increase in magnitude and frequency along with the solar disturbances.

On a pure physical level, each big disturbance here destabilizes other vulnerable areas where stresses have built up. So in Japan, directly after the Big One in Sendai estimated at 8.9 on the Richter scale, there have been dozens of aftershocks themselves over 6, quite enough to cause significant damage themselves. Will this destabilize the ENTIRE Ring of Fire in Cascade fashion? Doomer that I am, I

expect it will, and so I expect to see more Big Ones all around the Ring of Fire, and more Vulcanism.

How often are these “Big Ones” on the Ring of Fire coming now? Well in the last year we had a Big One in Chile, and we just had a Big One in NZ. We are due for one anyhow on several areas along the San Andreas fault in CA, and here in Alaska as well. If we do get another one someone along this ring in the next year, I think you can say with good assurance we are in the DEEP Doo-Doo, because we are still a good 18 months to 2 years away from Max Stress based on the Solar Cycle. Add to that the unknowable stress we will be subjected to as we pass through the Galactic Ecliptic on 12/21/2012, the very bowels of the earth might vomit up under the vast flux of energy through the Milky Way Galaxy.

Even “Big Ones” though are not Civilization terminating events anywhere but where they actually occur. In aggregate, many of them could make this civilization ending if they happen frequently enough, but a single one will not do it anywhere. Not even taking out all of Tokyo or Los Angeles would do that. The only SINGLE event which might be Civilization Ending on an local planetary scale (excluding external Asteroid impact) would be if this stress sets in motion enough of a cascade to set off one of the Supervolcanos, Yellowstone of course being the prime candidate because its about 60,000 years overdue. I am going to be monitoring the Seismos at Yellowstone in mid June and again mid December this year. If what has been occurring here follows the pattern, this is when we would see another big Swarm of Quakes around the Caldera there. It seems to be related to the summer and winter solstice.

Even before Yellowstone blows though, I am quite sure we will have some more “Big Ones” along the Ring of Fire this year. This one in Japan hit 8.9, possibly 9.0, making it the 5th largest Quake ever recorded. It’s the current Benchmark. If/when we get bigger ones than that, it would be a good time to start Drinking. Heavily. Keeping my fingers crossed my Cabin is not right above Ground Zero for the next one of course. Not that this would not be a bad way to go out, but I sure would hate to buy that ticket to the Great Beyond and MISS Yellowstone going Ballistic during my corporeal existence a measely year later.

While considering the Supervolcanos sprinkled around the Globe, let us not forget that Toba is just north of the recent quake in New Zealand and south of the quake in Japan. So it is getting stressed from both the North and the South. Also let us not forget the biggest Motherfucker of ALL TIME, Fish Canyon Tuff in La Garita Caldera which put an astounding 5000 cubic kilometers of ejecta up into the atmosphere is also probably due, though its periodicity isn’t known because it only blew off once 2.3M years ago in the geological record. If just Toba or Yellowstone blow, its civilization ending, but might not be the end of Homo Sapiens. There might be a tribe of 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs who makes it through somewhere. If La Garita goes, it’s a Permian-style Extinction event of just about all life forms above the level of the Tardigrades.

Now, let us leave the musings on a forthcoming extinction level disaster aside for a moment, and just focus on the current disaster unfolding in Japan. What are the secondary effects it is going to have on the worldwide financial markets? Well first off, the Insurance and Reinsurance industry is going to be about wiped out here. The nuke plants alone taken out here are liabilities in the Billions. Add all the other industries, loss of farmland, loss of life and property, we’re certainly looking at triple digit Billions here, even Trillions is not out of the question when you consider how this is going to affect the total Japanese economy.

The Japanese have been mired in a 20 year long depression, barely papered over by extend and pretend keeping their banking system floating. How can all the BROKE Nation-States of the world really loan them any money to rebuild after this disaster? Is the “solvent” Nation of China going to lend them Hyperinflating Renminby because the Chinese LOVE the Japanese so much? You think the Chinese have forgotten what the Nips did to them in WWII? I think not. With Nuke Plants exploding here, one suspects the Japanese would not have much stomach for building new ones anyhow, and obviously they cannot replace them with Fossil Fuel burning plants, so replacing the lost electrical power generation capability really is not even possible even IF you had money to do it with. Whatever recovery does take place in the Land of the Rising Sun, its going to be on a whole heck of a lot lower energy footprint. This means we are likely saying goodbye to Sony TVs and Toyota Cars built on their home soil. The energy they use in manufacturing this stuff is going to have to be redirected to just maintaining basic services internally. I think you can say with reasonable assurance that along with the British Isles, the Sun has now Set on the Japanese islands of Honshu and Hokkaido also.

What does this mean for all the currency traders who hold a lot of Yen? Well, briefly it might make the Yen more valuable, since the Japanese will need it to do any kind of rebuilding with, but what is the value of the Yen based on? Their manufacturing capacity of course. They certainly do not have a lot of arable for food export, actually a good deal less of it today than they had 2 days ago. They don’t have local reserves of Energy for export either. So the Japanese are now essentially a Welfare state dependent on the Kindness of Strangers to float them loans based on…NOTHING. The Yen as a currency is going to go down the toilet, and anybody who holds a lot of Yen based assets is going to lose his shirt. And his underwear.

One has to suspect that the Illuminati will be running for the fire exit here next week on the Tokyo stock exchange. Katy Bar the Door! Unlike the Brainy Asian children in Miyagi-Ken Prefecture who were studying hard in their Science and Math classrooms when they got washed out to sea to become Fish Food and will now NOT Apply to the Wharton School of Bizness at the University of Pennsylvania adjacent to the 30 Blocks of Squalor in Philadelphia, these folks still retain their lives, but all the MONEY they invested in Japanese stocks was washed out to sea with the Tsunami. Of course, the Tsunami on the Nikkei Exchange will wait for Monday to begin, but I do not see how that will not go lock limit down in the first hour of trading. The Japanese are going to have to halt trading. Even Helicopter Ben cannot print money fast enough to stop that Tsunami. Or can he? If the International PPT can keep the Nikkei floating, I will just be astounded.

If indeed there is a run on the Nikkei, then this means MARGIN CALLS across the board. All the Big Boys are levered up here to beat the band, so to meet those calls they will have to liquidate assets on other exchanges around the world. By about any measure, the PHYSICAL collapse of the City of Sendai and Miyagi-Ken Prefecture is a WAY bigger Black Swan than even Lehman. I’m NOT however going to go in on Monday morning and bet short, though I am quite sure this is a winning bet for next week. I simply cannot bring myself to take profit in the loss of so many lives. Anybody who does this can consider themselves a Profiteer of Death, and you will Burn in Everlasting Torment in the Fire and Brimstone of Hell if you do it. Its just like bidding up the price of Commodities when you KNOW people are starving because they cannot afford the food. It is fundamentally immoral to take profit on the misery of others in this way.

Now, besides all this going on, apparently ALSO the Hacker COLLECTIVE known as “Anonymous” is going to release documents on Monday proving the Corruption and Fraud perpetrated by BofA. While the Public Unions are currently in Full Retreat losing the battle against the Power of the Statists, the POWER of the UNION of Hackers is growing. It is the power of the COLLECTIVE, the power of the BORG. Resistance is Futile. “Anonymous” is TRULY powerful, much moreso than Julian Assange BECAUSE they are “ANONYMOUS”. There is no one person for the MSM to focus on, no one to prosecute for “sex crimes”. There are many of them out there all with their own Laptops, all connected to the World Wide Web. No central hub to take out, unless you take down the Internet itself. MANY angry IT Geeks out there right now who have lost their 6 figure jobs for smaller companies running the LAN for that company when it went under. Many recent graduates of IT programs at many Universities who cannot find a Job. Not every one of them is a fucking GENIUS who can go in through the back door of a Goobermint or Bank network and bypass the security, but most certainly a few of them CAN and nobody KNOWS who they are. They know how to use proxy servers and launch bots and viruses to hunt down what they want to find, or swamp out servers they don’t like with DNS attacks. They have PROVED this already. They are ANONYMOUS, and NOBODY, not even the Illuminati can Fuck with Anonymous. Anonymous is as close to Bulletproof as you can GET in an information based society. Anonymous means literally “No Name”. If you cannot NAME the enemy, you have no target. No “Al-Quaeda”, no Osama Bin Ladin, no Obama, no “el-Kabong”, nay not even “Jamie Dimon” or “Lloyd Blankfeien” to pillory. Only “Anonymous”, no face to put to the “enemy”. As long as you remain Anonymous, you cannot be touched, and the more Anonymous there are, the more POWER they will accrue.

There is no “Bradley Manning” or “Julian Assange” for the MSM to focus the attention of the masses on with the Hackers of Anonymous. Anonymous is the UNION of the smart and disenfranchised who have now had ENOUGH. They cannot be stopped by the Illuminati until they take down the Web entirely, and they cannot do that because it is their own means of control. “Anonymous” will WIN this battle. “Anonymous” are the BORG. The COLLECTIVE will WIN against the Individual eventually always. The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth. The Illuminati are FINISHED. The Borg will eat them alive. You want to be on the WINNING side here? Join with the Borg, JOIN THE COLLECTIVE. Become a part of the UNION of Anonymous.

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.

RE

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One of the big questions is, "Do you count all of these things with virtually no value as part [...]

There was no Iranian missile attack. That claim is pure Israeli propaganda, designed to further thei [...]

That was a good piece - not sure that was exactly what Steve was saying about Marx and industrializa [...]

Steve wrote a couple of articles last year, Marx & Debtonomics: https://www.economic-undertow.co [...]

Wait - when did Steve say that about Marx? I must have missed an interesting discussion along the wa [...]

@Ellen, I concur with Steve that Marx understood the problems with capitalism but failed to place th [...]

Well said. I would only argue that we, in effect, have MMT already. It hasn't failed yet. [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

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Simplifying the Final Countdown

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Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

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Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

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Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

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SWISSIE CAPITULATION!

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Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

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Merry Doomy Christmas

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Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

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Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals

Deterministic–stochastic empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to obtain low-frequency (n [...]

At the sub-national level, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) proposes [...]

The recent droughts in the American Southwest have led to increasing risks of wildfires, which pose [...]