Debunking Near Term Human Extinction

gc2Off the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on September 27, 2015


Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

Besides the ongoing collapse of the monetary system which fill the Newz headlines every day with a plethora of stories of bankrupt countries and mass layoffs, ever more people on Food Stamps and living out of their cars even if they have a full time job, probably the hottest topic in the collapse blogosphere is the question of Near Term Human Extinction.  I've covered it in rants and I've done surveys to see what the readers think on this topic also, but it's the collapse gift that keeps on giving.

The most well known person throuh the collapse blogosphere hawking this concept is Guy McPherson who runs the blog Nature Bats Last, but by no means is he the only one these days.  In his Encyclical, even the POPE insinuated this as a possibility in his Encyclical on Climate.

Before beginning here on debunking this idea, let me state for the record that NTHE is possible, and the longer you go out on the timeline the more possible it becomes.  Go out far enough on the timeline, it's inevitable and always has been. As the tagline goes on Zero Hedge, "On a long enough timeline, the survival of everyone drops to Zero". The issue is about the likelihood this can occur on short timelines.  In Guy's case, he has the timeline down to as soon as 2030 now.  That means every last Homo Sap on the planet is DEAD in 15 years.


For our purposes in this examination though, we'll consider "Near Term" to be anything under a Century.

The second caveat to this examination is that it is looking strictly at the Climate Change problem, not at the possibility we are on a collision course with Planet X or that the numbskulls with their Fingers on the Nuke Buttons will push them and set off Global Thermonuclear War.  Either of those as well as a few other scenarious could vastly accelerate the extinction of Homo Sap.

The question we are looking at here is:

Will a rise in Average Global Temperature (AGT) by 4C exterminate all Homo Saps inside the Next Century due to loss of Habitat and die off of many species we currently depend on?

Let's begin with what the current Average Global Temperature (AGT) actually IS at the moment.

Climatologists prefer to combine short-term weather records into long-term periods (typically 30 years) when they analyze climate, including global averages. Between 1961 and 1990, the annual average temperature for the globe was around 57.2°F (14.0°C), according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Now, according to the NOAA, as of August 2015, the current Average Global Temperature is 1.14C over the 20th Century Average.

The average global land surface temperature for August 2015 was 1.14°C (2.05°F) above the 20th century average

So let us be generous on the warming side and say the current AGT is up to 16 C now.  Let us warm this up further by another 4C over the next 15 years to 20 C.

Now, Guy's hypothesis states that no Homo Saps have ever been alive when the AGT was that warm, and that is true.  However, can you draw the conclusion from that it is IMPOSSIBLE for Homo Sap to survive at such an AGT?  Other mammals (our ancestors) survived an even warmer time period, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) when the AGT went up to about 25 C or so.  If other mammals could do it back then, why in principle can we not do it again this time?

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), alternatively "Eocene thermal maximum 1" (ETM1), and formerly known as the "Initial Eocene" or "Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum" refers to a climate event that began at the temporal boundary between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs. The absolute age and duration of the event remain uncertain, but are thought to be close to 55.8 million years ago and about 170,000 years of duration[1][2][3] The PETM has become a focal point of considerable geoscience research because it probably provides our best past analog by which to understand impacts of global warming and massive carbon input to the ocean and atmosphere, including ocean acidification.[4]

The onset of the PETM has been linked to an initial 5 °C temperature rise and extreme changes in Earth’s carbon cycle.[5] The PETM is marked by a prominent negative excursion in carbon stable isotope (δ13C) records from around the globe; more specifically, there was a large decrease in 13C/12C ratio of marine and terrestrial carbonates and organic carbon.[5][6][7]

Numerous other changes can be observed in stratigraphic sections containing the PETM.[5] Fossil records for many organisms show major turnovers. For example, in the marine realm, a mass extinction of benthic foraminifera, a global expansion of subtropical dinoflagellates, and an appearance of excursion, planktic foraminifera and calcareous nanofossils all occurred during the beginning stages of PETM. On land, there was a sudden appearance of modern mammal orders (including primates) in Europe and North America. Sediment deposition changed significantly at many outcrops and in many drill cores spanning this time interval.

Although it is now widely accepted that the PETM represents a “case study” for global warming and massive carbon input to Earth’s surface, the cause, details and overall significance of the event remain perplexing.

Guy's case is that Habitat will be so destroyed globally by such a rise in AGT, that there simply will be NOWHERE Homo Sap can survive on the planet.  Is that necessarily true?

Well, first off you have to remember this is an AVERAGE taken over the whole globe, it is not the average for a given region in any given time period.  Right now, TODAY, many people live in neighborhoods which have yearly average temperatures quite a bit warmer than this. Lagos in Nigeria is one such place, but there are many in the equatorial regions of the Earth.

February is the hottest month in Lagos with an average temperature of 29°C (84°F) and the coldest is July at 25°C (77°F)

There are a LOT of people currently living in Lagos, like around 20M of them and that's just one Big Shity in Nigeria too!  They don't all have HVAC either, in fact most of them live in slums with no electricity at all!  So clearly, Homo Sap can survive at these temperatures.

Granted though, this is rather sweaty and uncomfortable weather overall, but if the AGT is 20C, does that mean every neighbohood is 20 C?  Of course not, because the average temperature for any given location depends on its Latitude and its Altitude.

Starting with Altitude, you drop almost 2C for every 1000' in altitude you gain

Although the actual atmospheric lapse rate varies, under normal atmospheric conditions the average atmospheric lapse rate results in a temperature decrease of 6.4 °C/km (3.5 °F or 1.95 °C/1,000 ft) of altitude above ground level.

So, all you need to do in any given latitude is situate yourself 2000' above sea level and you have already knocked off 4 C tempeature rise on a global average.

The situation is similar with Latitude:

Temperature also decreases as latitude becomes more northward in the Northern Hemisphere and more southerly in the Southern Hemisphere. Latitude in this sense simply refers to a measurement of movement north or south across the surface of the earth. The general rule is that temperature changes three (3) degrees Fahrenheit for every 300 mile change in latitude at an elevation of sea level. If you are in the Northern Hemisphere, you can expect temperatures to be 3 degrees cooler 300 miles north, 6 degrees cooler 600 miles north, and so on, until you reach the North Pole. The same is true for the Southern Hemisphere, except that temperatures cool the further you travel from the equator toward the South Pole.

So, depending where you are in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere, you can knock off aroun 1.5C for every 300 Miles you move from your current location.  Can you stand the heat where you currently live without HVAC?  If you can, each time the AGT goes up by 1.5C, you just need to move another 300 miles north or south and you are back to where you started, and that is WITHOUT gaining altitude!

So clearly even with a projected 4 C rise in AGT, there are still going to be zones on the earth with still livable climate for Homo Sap.  It is also by no means clear that we will get 4 C inside of 15 years either.  So it has no good basis in scientific reasoning to suggest that Homo Sap will go extinct in such a short period of time, simply due to a 4 C rise in AGT.

Can Homo Sap experience an extreme Knockdown event in such a short time?  That is much more possible, and perhaps even probable at this point.  The number of neighborhoods that would have both good temperatures and enough water would be vastly reduced from what is available today.  However, a Knockdown event is not an Extinction, and Homo Sap has experienced Knockdowns before and rebounded from them.

Although the cause is disputed, somewhere between 75-200K years ago Homo Sap DNA evidence shows that the population of Homo Sap around at the time experienced a severe bottleneck, which may have been quick or it may have gone on for some time, but the bottleneck is still there:

The Toba catastrophe theory as presented in the late 1990s to early 2000s suggested that a bottleneck of the human population occurred c. 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to perhaps 10,000-30,000 individuals[3] when the Toba supervolcano in Indonesia erupted and triggered a major environmental change. The theory is based on geological evidence of sudden climate change and on coalescence evidence of some genes (including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome and some nuclear genes)[4] and the relatively low level of genetic variation in humans.[3]

However, coalescence times for Y-chromosomal and mitochondrial DNA have been revised to well above 100,000 years since 2011. In addition, such coalescence would not, in itself, indicate a population bottleneck, because mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome DNA are only a small part of the entire genome, and are atypical in that they are inherited exclusively through the mother or through the father, respectively. Genetic material inherited exclusively from either father or mother can be traced back in time via either matrilineal or patrilineal ancestry.[5]

In 2000, a Molecular Biology and Evolution paper suggested a transplanting model or a 'long bottleneck' to account for the limited genetic variation, rather than a catastrophic environmental change.[6] This would be consistent with suggestions that in sub-Saharan Africa numbers could have dropped at times as low as 2,000, for perhaps as long as 100,000 years, before numbers began to expand again in the Late Stone Age.[7]

So whether this bottleneck was fast or slow, whether the Toba Supervolcano caused it or not, whether the numbers dropped to 30,000, 10,000 or 2000, it's pretty clear the population of Homo Sap can rebound from a very small number to quite a large one, as today there are over 7B who reproduced up from that number.

So not a whole lot of people need to make it through this Zero Point to avoid an Extinction Level Event for Homo Sap.

So we have established now 2 things:

1- The climate in all places on earth is unlikely to become unfit for human habitation

2- The number of people who need to survive in order to avoid extinction is quite small

The next question to address is that of Positive Feedback Loops, which some folks suggest will send the planet into a Venusian style Global Cooking Event, with runaway heating that exceeds even the PETM.  If that were to occur, most certainly Homo Sap and most other living things besides Extremophiles like the Tardigrades would not be able to make it through such an event.  However, does the scientific record of Global Atmospheric Carbon content and Average Global Temperature suggest that is likely?  No it does not.


As you can see, basically regardless of how much of the Global Carbon Reservoir gets dumped into the atmosphere for whatever reason, the AGT always plateaus out around 25C.  So for all the Positive Feedback Loops that are out there, at 25C some Negative Feedback Loops must start to kick in.  Unidentified as of yet what they are, but they must be there, otherwise we should have turned into Venus 170M years ago when global atmospheric CO2 was at around 2300 ppm.  We got a lot of carbon to burn to get there in any event, and lots of clathrates have to melt too!  That is not going to happen in 15 years.

The other issue here is what happens to the oceans and all the fishies during this period?  Well, the Ocean is going to continue to acidify, and many current species are going to die off.  Phytoplankton are of particular concern here, since they are in large part responsible for dropping molecular oxygen back into the atmosphere for the animals on the planet to breathe, including you and me.  Can the atmosphere go Anoxic inside 15 years?  No, not even if every last phytoplankton died could that occur, because the atmosphere is a very large sink.  As more animals die off, less oxygen is consumed.  So it takes some time to deplete the atmosphere of oxygen down to say 10% where it would be real difficult to survive.  Although, well acclimated people such as the Sherpas can do OK at 8%.  Obviously, as oxygen levels in the atmosphere decline, only people who can survive with such low concentrations would be selected for.  In any event it takes some time for this to occur, a lot longer than 15 years. There are at least 3 currently living communities of people who can survive these low oxygen concentrations.

Prehistoric and contemporary human populations living at altitudes of at least 8,000 feet (2,500 meters) above sea level may provide unique insights into human evolution, reports an interdisciplinary group of scientists. Indigenous highlanders living in the Andean Altiplano in South America, in the Tibetan Plateau in Asia, and at the highest elevations of the Ethiopian Highlands in east Africa have evolved three distinctly different biological adaptations for surviving in the oxygen-thin air found at high altitude.

Above 25,000', fuhgettabboudit, not even Sherpas can last long up there.  It's the DEATH ZONE.  However, below 8000' or so, even with steady atmospheric oxygen concentrations depleting, it will take a good deal longer than 15 years for that one to occur.


The Death Zone on Everest

However, the likelihood that all the phytoplankton die off within 15 years itself is quite small.  Remember, they all did not Buy their Ticket to the Great Beyond TM in the PETM, 5-10% of ocean species survived that event.  Phytoplankton are single cell and they reproduce and adapt to changing environmental conditions rapidly.  There has been a dieoff of around 50% of them over the last 40 years or so, but it is unlikely they ALL will die off inside even another 40 years, because this is asymptotic.

Land based ecosystems have their own set of parameters, and some will collapse quickly, others will persist for quite some time to come.  As the population of Homo Sap dwindles, it will migrate to those zones that still have functional ecosystems.  Then in addition, Homo Sap being Sentient can further augment what is available in the local ecosystem, through techniques like Hydroponics and Aquaculture.

This Greenhouse is on the North Slope of Alaska:


So you clearly can feed SOME number of people this way, it's a Non-Zero number, which by definition means you don't have Extinction.  How big that number is remains open to question, but it is certainly more than 100,000, which is more than enough to provide genetic diversity for the species to recover over time.

Now, despite the fact the evidence above shows that Guy's 15 year timeline to Near Term Human Extinction is quite preposterous, does this mean we are not in BIG TROUBLE? 


We are going to have a LOT of DEAD PEOPLE!


What is important given this incontravertable fact of life is that the sooner we get started on addressing this problem realistically, the better we can make it possible for not only more people to survive this crash, but more of the rest of the ecosystem too!

For right now, making any changes on the gross geopolitical level is impossible.  The Chinese are going to keep burning coal to keep their electric power plants running as long as they can.  Happy Motorists in the FSoA will keep driving around willy nilly as long as they can too.  The carbon will be burned, the climate will continue to become more inhospitable, for at least the next 40 years no matter what due to the lag time for many effects to show themselves.

However, individuals can begin the process of learning how to survive in a drastically changed environment, and communities can begin to form to handle it as well.  It is up to each person to begin this process inside your own small sphere of influence.  My small sphere is the Doomstead Diner , collapse.global & Sun4Living websites.  That's my effort, that is all an old cripple can do.

If you have talent, knowledge and/or experience, you too can make a difference, and this is no time to be a QUITTER.  Resigning yourself to an inevitable fate of EXTINCTION in the Near Term is QUITTING.  Accepting this situation as HOPELESS is QUITTING.

This is a battle that can be fought, and it is a battle that can be WON!  Not without a lot of pain and a lot of loss, to be sure, but giving up is not an option, unless you really WANT to die, or you want our whole species to die because you think we are so awful and bad to have around on the planet.  If you want to LIVE, you look for means and methods to SURVIVE.

This battle has been waged before by the ancestors of Homo Sap in the PETM, and they won it.


Supply Chains, Population & Community: Conversation with Dmitry Orlov Part II

Off the microphones of Dmitry Orlov, Monsta & RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Aired on the Doomstead Diner on August 21, 2014


Discuss this interview at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

In case you missed it, here is the first part of the Interview with Dmitry

Dmitry Orlov Part I

Latest Frostbite Falls Daily Rant Series: Riots in #Ferguson

SNAP to RIOT IN #ferguson,

SNAP to RIOT 2 in #ferguson,

SNAP to RIOT 3: Bring on the National Guard

In this part of the podcast, we discuss with Dmitry the issues of Supply Chains necessary to maintain our current Industrial Civilization, the possible effects of Supply Chain breakdowns, resiliency versus efficiency and how the various nations under the Soviet Union umbrella coped with the collapse of that mega-state.  Other topics include the possibilities for Near Term Human Extinction and principles underlying Sustainable Communities.

Coming soon to Diner Podcasts, a new Frostbite Falls Daily Rant on the 8th Crusade looking at the escalating assymetric warfare being pursued by the ISIS Caliphate in MENA.



A Response to my Critics…

Off the keyboard of Guy McPherson

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Nature Bats Last on May 23, 2014


Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

…and Further Adventures in Ecuador

I continue to receive abundant criticism for driving an automobile and taking flights on commercial airlines. These critiques obviously originate from caves to which water is carried via gourd from the nearby stream and the only meat is derived from insects.

As I’ve explained for many years, I will gladly stop participating in fossil foolishness when these enterprises reach their overdue end. If my lack of participation in these activities would terminate car culture and airline culture, I would’ve stopped years ago. Actually, I did, for about two years. Sadly, the beat goes on.

Conservation is largely irrelevant, as explained by Jevons’ paradox, the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate, and reality. Not surprisingly for people born into this culture, the irrelevance is lost on the culturally conditioned masses. Indeed, conservation is another attempt, among many, to bring austerity to the masses. Perhaps you could join me in driving up the price of oil instead of furthering civilization by doing the opposite.

On my recent travels, airplanes with empty seats were in the solid majority. The airline death spiral continues.

My power to induce change is, to quote Kurt Vonnegut, “like a banana cream pie three feet in diameter dropped from a stepladder four feet high” (my power continues to make such a difference). Yet, driven by my inner teacher, I foolishly forge on. The quest costs money, of which I have little. It attracts deniers and trolls, of which I’ve attracted many. Contrary to the lunacy I’ve heard and read, I’ve no motive beyond the evidence and no desire to see our species driven to extinction.

Scientists put their ideas on display. They expose their concepts, hypotheses, and forecasts to scrutiny, specifically to further discussion. As with other scientists, my ideas are intended to reach a large audience, specifically to expose them to critical review.

I will discuss my ideas with anybody who will listen and many who won’t. I have agreed to debate H. Leighton Steward on the topic of climate change (see below for information). I was asked to debate James Hansen on the topic of abrupt climate change leading to human extinction: I agreed immediately, and I’ve received no response.

With respect to my prediction of near-term human extinction, I’d love to see evidence refuting my conclusion. Thus far I’ve received only disparaging comments and ad hominem assaults. I’ve yet to see anybody launch a rational attack on the evidence, although disparagement of me and several other scientists continues unabated. When the science cannot be refuted, the obvious step is to attack the scientist’s credibility.

As nearly as I can distinguish, these attacks primarily originate with city dwellers. Launching their attacks from the source of the predicament, these critics fail to acknowledge their own complicity while basking in the belly of the carbon beast. Sucking at the teat of empire, they cannot grasp how their comforts could possibly be viewed as detrimental. Yet subsidies allow them to remain car-free while they occupy inexpensive houses heated and cooled with inexpensive electricity, drink inexpensive water piped into their homes, eat inexpensive food in neighborhood restaurants, and pay a pittance to have various sources of waste hauled away from their tender eyes and noses. When asked, most of these folks claim they’ll do something when it matters. Something important, no doubt, like recycling.

But I digress. On the topic of evidence, please consider, for example, the overwhelming evidence regarding the firing of the clathrate gun. Critically important papers have appeared in Science, Nature, Geophysical Research Letters, and Global Policy, as well as from NASA’s CARVE project, but there has been no general scientific acceptance and reporting of this major phenomenon.

The notion of near-term human extinction is anathema to mainstream climate scientists, including the likes of James Hansen and Michael Mann, among the most famous climate scientists in the world (links for all the following statements can be found in my climate-change summary and update). Paul Beckwith, for example, forecasts 6 C temperature rise within a decade and 16 C temperature rise within two decades but distances himself from the notion of human extinction. An engineer and physicist, Beckwith apparently doesn’t realize human animals require habitat to survive. A quick peek into my email in-box indicates Michael Mann — among the most revered climate scientists in the world — was unaware that a 1.95 temperature rise is guaranteed with collapse of industrial civilization until I brought Clive Hamilton’s 2013 analysis to his attention. He still clings to the idea that 2 C is the ecologically important threshold we must not cross, contrary to 24-year-old information from the United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases. James Hansen, perhaps the only climate scientist more famous than Mann, only recently realized 1 C was the threshold not to be crossed, and he still promotes nuclear power plants, even though they are known to be carbon-generating environmental disasters. Apparently enabling our addiction to electricity is more important than slowing the omnicide generated by industrial civilization.

The train not only left the station, it fell off the trestle. Now we’re simply contemplating who gets the best view before the train hits the bottom of the rocky canyon. According to David Wasdell’s May 2014 analysis, which includes a critique of the IPCC’s ongoing lunacy, “equilibrium temperature increase predicted as a result of current concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gasses is already over 5°C.” I see no way for humans to survive such a rise in global-average temperature, and it’s baked into the proverbial cake.

If only I’d offer a civilized path forward, I’d be popular. If I promoted false hope, contrary to abundant evidence, I’d be able to make a living by speaking in public to sold-out crowds. If I’d finish each presentation with three tasks everybody can pursue, I’d be featured on the mainstream nightly news. Alas, no dice. Evidence is priceless.

In the spirit of all the scientists promoting their own careers, here’s my list of three relevant tasks to pursue to solve our climate-change predicament:

1. Don’t just do something. Sit there.

2. If you care about the living planet, take steps to terminate industrial civilization.

3. Look inside yourself.

The video embedded below is derived from a presentation I delivered in rural Ecuador on Friday evening, 16 May 2014. The video was shot and edited by Pauline Schneider. You can support Pauline’s work by clicking here.

The trip to Ecuador brought mixed feelings. The natural beauty is stunning. The dependence on industrial civilization is, too. Ecuador has access to sophisticated technology and infrastructure, including hydrofracturing and refineries. Even small villages rely heavily on modern, truck-based importation of food and other “necessities” for everyday life. Contrary to the typical Western approach, most Ecuadorian people with whom I interacted are content to pursue joyful, simple lives rather than an abundance of money. Sadly, though, there is little evidence that many of these people will survive collapse of American empire (for example, their official currency is the U.S. dollar, and typical billboards tout the same two soft drinks battling for American minds mouths).

Shadows & Lies

Off the keyboard of Guy McPherson

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Nature Bats Last on May 8, 2014


Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

When you’re dead, you don’t know you’re dead. People around you feel it, though. It’s the same when you’re stupid.

My promotion of a gift economy seems stupid because it doesn’t involve the pursuit of money. As a result, I receive gifts, especially when I travel. Books and shirts are among the most popular items I receive, and the latter often contain witty historical expressions. Among my tee shirts is one with a phrase from Benjamin Franklin: “It is the first responsibility of every citizen to question authority.”

Most people I encounter clearly do not agree, at least in practice. In theory there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is. Still, I’m astonished at the prevailing mentality among the American citizenry I encounter. Apparently we are so afraid to question authority, so willing to believe blatant lies, that we willingly capitulate to liars and thieves dressed as CEOs and politicians.

I provide few links in this essay. Evidence for each of the following claims is abundant and easily obtained. If you’ve not grasped these tidbits by now, additional evidence will remain unconvincing. I suspect your ignorance is willful, your inability to see a direct result of eyes sealed tightly shut.

Most notable is the inability of nearly everybody I know to pursue radicalism. For starters, most people I’ve met cannot distinguish between a radical and an extremist, despite the clear difference.

If it’s unclear I’m writing about you, ask yourself this question: “What have I done recently that runs counter to the status quo?” If you don’t have a significant response, you’re likely to squirm while reading this essay.

Plunging down a rabbit hole — any rabbit hole — apparently makes one likely to pursue radicalism on additional topics. Fortunately for governments, few citizens are willing to look deeply into any topic, no matter how important. The shadows in the cave are far too comfortable to risk facing reality head-on.

And then there are the Strong Suggestions of Thermodynamics Laws of Thermodynamics. The official story of 9/11 violates the Laws of Thermodynamics, yet few people I know are willing to question the official narrative. After all, doing so would adhere to Franklin’s maxim, a notion foreign to the typical modern ‘murican. The Orwellian absurdity continues with the disparaging term applied to those who question the impossible official narrative: “truther.”

A few additional examples are presented below. They provide an opportunity for me to launch a too-infrequent rant into the void. Ergo, my latest attempt to combine reality with its common partner, absurdity.

Civilization is not the only way to live. Indeed, humans lived without civilization for more than two million years. We’ve lived within the shackles of civilization for a few thousand years. Civilization clearly is omnicidal. Few notice. Even fewer care.

Civilization is an expression of patriarchy. The current version of industrial civilization benefits a few Caucasian men at the expense of every other living being. Most civilized people believe this set of living arrangements is wonderful.

If you are reading these words, you benefit from imperialism. American Empire is real, and it covers the globe. There is no escape.

The two dominant political parties in the United States represent twin cheeks on the same ass. If you believe the next person to occupy the Oval Office will improve the situation for the masses, then you do not understand the issue. Elizabeth Warren, or any other “progressive” candidate (i.e., contemporary neo-conservative) — the next great hope of many forgetful Democrats — will prove as disappointing as the current president to these deluded, die-hard dims Dems.

The United States is dominated by a corporate government and corporate media. When greed is your only god, sociopaths assume control. We’re there, fully embedded within patriarchal fascism. The standard response of my fellow citizens: “I want more. I deserve more.” Apparently I occupy the land of the me and home of the crave.

The big banks have run this country for a very long time. They orchestrate everything from laundering drug money to cracking down on any form of resistance. They’ve been in charge for a very long time. Few notice, and even fewer care.

The American system of public education is designed to “dumb down” the populace. Critical thinking belongs to a bygone era. Nearly every one of the so-called, self-proclaimed teachers I know refuses to acknowledge reality on this issue. And most other matters, for that matter. These teachers are paid to think, and also to teach others how to think. They have overwhelmingly failed, and they continue to fail.

The prison-industrial complex, like almost every other aspect of American culture, is designed to enrich the wealthy and enslave the poor. Some people claim the system isn’t working. Au contraire: It’s working as planned, as indicated by the beneficiaries of American Empire.

Monogamy and the marriage-industrial complex are part and parcel of patriarchy. The dominant paradigm is not superior to other ways of living. Deep down inside, you surely understand.

We cannot sustain the unsustainable, including civilization. Nor should we attempt to do so. Civilization requires tremendous violence. Industrial civilization is the most violent version yet.

American exceptionalism is a myth. American military power, largely supported by willfully ignorant taxpayers, is necessary to maintain American lifestyles, including grid-tied electricity, the modern banking system, and all that follows.

Abrupt climate change is under way. Global climate change causes suffering and death of humans and other organisms. There is no escape.

Net energy decline is under way and soon will contribute to the early death of most humans on Earth. Fossil fuels have peaked and the Age of Expansion has been replaced with the Age of Contraction. The Age of Conquest has nearly reached its overdue end.

Collapse of industrial civilization is under way and will be complete soon. When collapse is complete, the world’s remaining nuclear power plants will melt down catastrophically, thus shortening the lives of many humans and other organisms. There is no escape.

The interaction between anthropogenic climate change and collapse of industrial civilization affects every aspect of human life in the industrialized world. There is no politically viable approach to addressing either issue, much less the interaction between them.

Many centuries ago, Plato presciently wrote a line that resonates strongly with me: “Those who are able to see beyond the shadows and lies of their culture will never be understood, let alone believed by the masses.” Indeed, we’ll disparage them by, paradoxically, referring to them as “truthers.” We will therefore remain in the shadows of our cave of blissful ignorance.

Total Eclipse of the Doom: Requiem for Mike Ruppert

Off the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on April 15. 2014

mike-ruppert-dogLast Sunday Night Mike Ruppert committed Suicide.

For those of you who don’t know who Mike Ruppert was, he was one of the first bloggers to investigate the ramifications of declining energy production, as well as someone who constantly questioned the narrative offered up in the MSM as explanation for things like the 9-11 destruction of the World Trade Center.  Some would call him a “Conspiracy Theorist”.  More like Conspiracy FACT, but that is a subject for another post.

Like many other bloggers and researchers looking at the problems we face now, Mike became increasingly upset and depressed over the progress and the lack of any real initiatives to try to deal with this stuff in a coherent manner.  This is evident in the progress of his writing over the last couple of years, and his demeanor in his podcasts on the Lifeboat Hour, his web based radio show.

Mike isn’t the first Blogger/Pundit to commit suicide in recent years, Matt Simmons also took his own life back in august of 2010.  Perhaps even more disturbing is the constant talk of Suicide and Hospicing on Nature Bats Last, Guy McPherson’s blog which concerns itself mainly with Climate Change and the hypothesis that we are on the cusp of Near Term Human Extinction, by mid-century if you accept the arguments made that this is an inevitable outcome.

Not unrelated to this outcome is the fact Carolyn Baker was the first Collapse Blogger to break the news of Mike’s suicide.  Carolyn posts regularly on Nature Bats Last, often these days with the explicit theme of Hospicing for people who have incurable illnesses and finding a comfortable way to walk into the Great Beyond.  The clear analogy being made here is that the entire Human Race is in need of Hospicing, as we are all condemned to imminent Death under the scenario of Near Term Human Extinction.  The difference of course is that while an individual can have a fairly certain diagnosis of Imminent Death in some circumstances, it is hardly a provable certainty that 100% of Homo Sapiens are destined for Death inside 30-40 years or so.  Really, even in the case of individuals diagnosed with various forms of inoperable and untreatable Cancers, rarely is there 100% certainty of Death.  “Miraculous” remissions do occur with virtually all forms of cancer, though granted at relatively small percentages of the afflicted people.

For the really depressed person though who sees NO ESCAPE from imminent Death and who becomes more focused on getting out of pain or avoiding future pain they are certain is coming down the pipe, the ideas of Hospicing and Suicide become attractive alternatives.  The idea here is to Accept Death and become OK with it, and pulling your own plug at a time of your own choosing is a kind of Empowerment for an an individual who feels disempowered by the seemingly hopeless situation they are immersed in.

Everybody should have the right to pull their own plug if they so choose, I have no problem with that idea.  What I do find to be worrisome is a developing zeitgeist which tacitly encourages suicide as an option, because people who sink into depression are very vulnerable and can and probably do latch onto this idea as rationale for the behavior.


There is little doubt that as a whole the World and the Human Race are in a World of Shit, and it is pretty easy these days to throw up your hands and say it is all utterly hopeless.  Climate Change, Fukushima, Global Wars over resources, Drought, Famine…all you gotta do is read the Newz on any given day and you can hear the Thunder of the Hoofbeats of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.  Many times in my articles and comments in the Collapse Blogosphere I have used the iconic quote from The Sixth Sense, “I See Dead People”.


Today, Mike Ruppert is one of those Dead People.  While he was alive, Mike Ruppert made a difference, many people who otherwise would not be aware of the problems which face us now are aware of them because once there was Mike Ruppert walking the earth, passing on to others what he saw and what he learned.

For those of us not yet counted amongst the Dead People, we still have choices to make, and the biggest choice of all is whether you live to fight another day, or whether you give up the fight, hospice yourself and wait for death, or hurry it along with a Bullet meets Brain combination.

I won’t make a judgement here on Mike’s choice, but for me I don’t see hurrying the trip to the Great Beyond as near appropriate yet.  There is a good long ways to go here between now and Human Extinction, even under the most rapid of scenarios.  The End Game is NOT written in Stone, and each person can still make a Difference, if not for the World at large at least for the people they know, love and care for.  Mike had a clear voice, and it would have been nice if he could have found it within himself to speak a bit longer, but that is not the choice he made.

For those of us not yet Dead, we still have choices to make.


The 1st Diner Convocation II

Off the keyboard of Lucid Dreams

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on Epiphany Now on March 20, 2014

Discuss this article at the SUN Table inside the Diner

In 2007 I read James Howard Kunstler’s The Long Emergency, and my life changed irrevocably due to the information I received from that book. Shortly after, I joined the Kunstlercast forum and posted many threads and had many in depth conversations about collapse, peak oil, and the ramifications of our infinite growth on a finite planet paradigm. I also began digesting collapse related books with precision and efficiency, and I would often order five or six books at a time by authors like Richard Heinberg, Dmitry Orlov, John Michael Greer, Michael Ruppert, and Jared Diamond just to name a few. Figuring out what the collapse of our modern petroleum dependent civilization meant to me was no easy task. I’m an Aspie, so it wasn’t an emotional affair for me to deal with, but it was stressful nonetheless, and collapse became a “special interest,” and it’s a special interest that is still current for me. Mostly because I’m unable to not abide in the truth of things. It seems this to is part of my Aspie brain (I’ll be writing about Asperger’s Syndrome much more in the coming months because I have just recently stopped being in denial about the diagnosis…but this particular blog is not the time to do that).

I was a daily contributor over at the Kunstlercast, and it was the first forum I’d ever been a member of. I greatly enjoyed communicating with like minds on that forum via the written medium. I fell in love with it actually, and the regular contributors became my friends (which was great since IRL friends are difficult for me to acquire). This was a set of people whom would talk about the truths surrounding PO with me for hours on end, which is still next to impossible to do with people IRL. Threads that would stretch for days and days. I was a conspiracy theorist at this time in my life and had been for about five years. The “Kcats,” as we called ourselves, helped open my eyes a bit about the nature of conspiracy theories and their many half truths. Around 2009 or so I got tired of the same old shit being discussed over and over again via countless incarnations on the Kunstlercast forum. It got boring and I decided to leave the forum without a word about it really. I just sorta left one day and never went back. I also deleted my facebook account around this same time and focused all of my writing on this blog.
The only blog I was reading at this time was John Michael Greer’s Archdruid Report. He came up with the concept of the Green Wizard, and a forum was devoted to the project, which I frequented for a while. I had shifted my focus from understanding the nature of our predicament to wanting to act on the information. What became important to me was the answer to the question “what am I going to do about collapse?” The Green Wizard Project (GWP) was exactly what I needed. The GWP was mostly designed for solitary green wizards, and it was about using appropriate tech and about developing strategies that would help with minimizing the impact that the Long Descent would have on the GWP participants. The psychological component of the GWP can be summed up by JMG’s own acronym “LESS.” Less entertainment, stuff, and stimulation. JMG advises us all to step back into voluntary simplicity and learn how to live more in tune with the natural world and it’s cycles and it’s renewable pace. I became a Druid as well. For the next couple of years practicing green wizardry was sufficient for me as a response to collapse, but that to began to change as my understanding of our predicament began intensifying.
I realized that the only chance of survival in a shit hits the fan scenario, or even just a long descent scenario, would be real community. As far as I can tell, real community has gone extinct in our imagadget, narcissistic, techno delusional, American Hologram deployed and Matrix controlled consumer waste generating stank of a society. I had found fellow blogger William Hunter Duncan’s blog, Off The Grid in Minneapolis, via a comment he left over at the Archdruid Report. William resonated very strongly with me (which interestingly enough, William now works with autistic people as his job). I began following his blog, and he began following mine. He may well have been the first “follower” of mine on this blog. We became good virtual friends and even exchanged books we were writing for back and forth criticism and suggestions. He told me about a new forum that he was an administrator for called the Doomstead Diner. I went and had a look, but I still had a sour taste in my mouth after boring with the Kunstlercast forum. I looked around and it appeared to be just about the exact same thing as the Kcast forum with different avatars. After a short visit I decided that I wasn’t interested in joining as a member (and I just found out, via going to the kunstlercast forum to copy the web address for the hyperlink for this blog that I’ve been banned from the Kunstlercast Forum for some unknown reason).
Several months later I left a comment on Morris Berman’s blog and RE, the man responsible for the existence of the Doomstead Diner, saw it and it peaked his interest enough to come over here to see what I was about. William had commented on that blog and RE saw this and apparently formed the opinion that I may be a good match as a cross poster on the Diner. It felt good to have somebody seek me out for my writing, and I was more than happy to have my essays published on the Diner. I figured since I was going to be publishing my blog on the Diner that I might as well have a more focused look around to see what was shakin’ in the Diner world. I’ve been an active participant and a Diner ever since. Not long after I arrived at the Diner fellow Diner Roamer arrived and posted a thread titled “Community OwnedDoomstead.” That thread lit a spark that found good tinder and began smoking. Roamer knew about 150 acres in NC that an elderly couple owned and were interested in allowing more able bodied individuals to cultivate the land in permaculture fashion. My wife Gypsy Mama and son Ayden Zen and I all drove to NC to meet Roamer in person along with his on again off again lady friend. We met in a coffee shop across the street from the university my wife graduated from, and we all instantly liked each other. It was the first time I had ever met a virtual friend in real life…making Roamer an “in real life” friend as well. This was a very exciting and important step for the Diner. As it turns out, Roamer, GM and I’s meeting was foreshadowing the now not too distant future. The 150 acres didn’t work out on account of dementia and Cat Food Carol, but that’s a long story (and you likely already know it if you’re reading this blog). We came a pubic hair away from the first Sunstead (at the time it had been dubbed the Foxstead) within weeks of the first attempt that the Diner’s made for a community owned doomstead.
We’ve since been working towards figuring out how to bioneer our way into a petroleum scarce world. We’ve been trying to figure out how we move forward from this point. How do we structure a new way to inhabit the land and use it’s resources to meet our basic human needs in a sustainable and healing way? We don’t want a commune, but we want something intentional that empowers the Sunsteaders, and gives us autonomy and meaningful community at the same time. Eventually the new effort was dubbed the SUN project (sustaining universal needs). Our driving ethic is to “save as many as you can.” This translating into a tribal unit we are currently calling the “Sunstead.” We want the Sunstead to be a self replicating template that will pop up like mushrooms in spite of the Near Term Human Extinction (NTHE) meme. NTHE being the idea that all life on Earth will be going extinct sometime in the next two decades (as soon as five years from now) due to run away positive feedback loops running amok in the climate control mechanisms of our planet. They may be right, but I refuse to live in a world with no hope, and I recognize that there is no way anybody can know what the planet will do. While our civilization is definitely collapsing, and while we are doing our level best to shit all over the planet that sustains us with our incessant chemical creation and consumptive waste generation, our planet is a living organism which we cannot study under a microscope.  We can’t possibly know how the Earth will react.
The Sun Foundation is now a 501c3 non-profit organization, and we are currently waiting for the magic government letter to arrive so that we can begin accepting charitable donations from people like you, whom care about the reality outside of the Matrix, and our engagement with the wasteland we’ve inherited. In a little under two weeks a select few Diner members are going to converge on the Toothstead in Texas for the purposes of the first Diner Convocation, and for training in Monolithic Dome construction.
The coming Convocation is proof that we’re not just a bunch of keyboards circle jerking into the endless night about how fucked it all is. We want to do something in the real world about the predicament our civilization’s in. The writing is on the wall, and food prices are fit to bust any time now due to drought and ever increasing super storms. I could go on about all of the problems our crumbling civilization is dealing with, but I’ve done that countless times here already. If you don’t know what the problems are at this point than it’s because you are willfully deluding yourself, or just don’t have the desire to extricate yourself from the Matrix’s mesmerizing hologram. We’re going to meet in Texas, in person, as a symbolic act, to look each other in the eyes and validate the reality of our typed expressions, desires, goals, and to engage with reality of the real, rather than reality of the virtual persuasion. We’re going to drink beer and break bread at a real Doomstead Diner table. We’re going to study Monolithic construction and plant some real seeds of change. We’re going to build a rocket mass heater, have a hole diggin’ contest, possibly film a spoof on the NTHE movie trailer 22 After, and get to know a handful of Diner’s in person. I’ll be bringing my family and my boomerangs.
Most importantly we’re going to ferment in a real life think tank. That’s what the Convocation is ultimately about. For me, it’s a vetting, and it’s a chance to look my fellow Diners in the eyes (I know, ironic considering my Aspie status, but I’ve always been atypical even amongst the atypical…consider that the majority of the medics thought I was weird when I worked EMS to gauge how weird I am…as it turns out, not weird just not neurotypical) and see what I see. Is the SUN Foundation worth my time? Is it something that can be real? Can we actually bioneer a Sunstead, or a Waterstead, or a Foxstead, or a Doomstead? Can we actually be the force that begins fixing this clusterfuck of a predicamentation civilization? Does RE really smoke six packs of cigarettes a day? Is William really bald and in love with the Goddess? Can Eddie fix my fucked up mouth full of metal (just kiddin’ Eddie…at least this time). Will Haniel and I see Aspie to Aspie and relate to one another?
I’m looking forward to finding out the answer to all of those questions. For me, the Convocation is my chance to show everybody that I really am a 6′ 4″ bad ass Aikido ninja permaculture green wizard druid Aspie Diner. It’s my chance to look them all in the eyes, Haniel included, in an attempt to pull as much of their true intentions out so that I can shine my hyperfocused understanding of the human psyche onto them. Here’s hoping we’ll all be comfortable, and that William won’t get his feelings hurt when I dig a bigger hole in the Texas dirt. My wife Gypsy Mama, and my children Ayden Zen and Harper Tribann will be there as well (as far as I know they’re the only children Diners…hell, Harper Tribann was born a Diner). Several Diners will converge in two weeks. To hear RE tell about it, you’ll all get a chance to participate in real time on the net. I hear he’s bought all of the recording devices he could find. If nothing else, for the first time, Diners will break bread at a real Diner table…in Texas…and I’ll get too drunk and throw my boomerangs.

Uncertainty Principles

Off the keyboard of RE

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666
Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on December 29, 2013


Discuss this article at the Doomsteading Table inside the Diner

It is the wee hours of Christmas Morning here on the Last Great Frontier, and I have been awake since Midnite after taking an early evening Nap on Christmas Eve.  For the first time in I cannot recall how long (maybe the first time EVER!) , I have managed to avoid getting invited to anybody’s house for Christmas Dinner, or any Christmas Parties either.  Well, there is a small Work Party I will attend on Friday, but nothing here on Christmas Eve or on the Big Day itself.

People who aren’t Loners get all bent out of shape about the idea of “being alone” on Christmas, like this is some kind of Mortal Sin.  You are SUPPOSED to get together in a big crowd of people, open lots of Presents and then eat a massive Turkey Dinner.  After a full month, you should have digested the Thanksgiving one, and finished the Leftovers too so it’s time to stuff your face again!  You are supposed to revel in the joy of watching Happy Children’s faces as they open their newest Toys, this year probably the latest Ipad or XBox game.

I admit to being pretty astounded by this technology, and I buy some of it for myself too.  Well, not Apple Shit, I buy Samsung Shit.  I don’t buy Xbox games either, even though I enjoyed playing the earliest Arcade Games like Space Invaders and Missile Command in my College years, and the Strategy Game Civilization after I got my first ACER Computer sometime in the early 90s I think it was. (That sucker had only 500MB on the HARD DRIVE!  Talk about the Jurrassic period of computers. LOL.) I got pretty badly addicted to that game too for about 6 months until I finally learned how to beat it and win all the time, sometimes destroying all other Civilizations and taking over the Planet, crisscrossing the continents with Railroads and whatever High Tech stuff that early version of Civilization had to offer.  Other times I would build the Spaceship to go Colonize other Planets.  Those were your two choices basically if you won the game.  Either GET OFF the Earth first, or DESTROY everybody else on the Planet.  There were no choices there for a Genetic Bottleneck and massive crash of the human population or for Near Term Human Extinction either.

I had to wait until just recently to get a game like that, this time for my Samsung Tablet called PLAGUE.  In that one, you get to design a Plague of varying types and the objective is to wipe out all of humanity.  I got good at that game faster than Civilization, and wiped out Humanity numerous times with Viruses, Nano-Viruses, Bacteria and Fungi.  There are a few other choices too, but I haven’t had much time to play lately, what with battling out the REAL problem here right now on Earth.  LOL.  Computer games just don’t measure up when the REAL THING is staring you in the face.  At least for an adult this is true anyhow, not so true I think for the current generation of kids opening up their Xbox games this Christmas.

http://i1-games.softpedia-static.com/screenshots/Pac-Man-Deluxe_1.jpgWhen I was touring our local Fred Meyer retail outlet, at the entrance they had a big display of the latest in Xbox games playing on a Big Screen LCD TV, and the ACTION and rendition of this stuff is amazing now.  No more little Pac-men munching bits along a track, no more Super Mario Brothers cartoons jumping up and down, now you got 3D simulated Homo Sapiens that are getting so darn close to looking like Real Actors they probably won’t NEED real actors anymore to make movies, least until the system collapses here anyhow.  So your typical Kid Gamer Junkie now can use his Joystick to control the action, whatever it is from blowing away Zombies to flying Drones to being an NFL Quarterback, all in the comfort of Mom’s Basement, long as the McMansion hasn’t been foreclosed on yet anyhow.

So, plenty of distraction out there for the young’uns, but anyone past the age of 30 or so now who is oblivious to the writing on the wall has to be close to Brain Dead.  Really, my co-host on the Collapse Cafe Monsta is in his 20s, and he can see it, so you don’t absolutely need to be an Old Fart with many seasons under the belt to catch the drift here.  It doesn’t take a Weatherman to know which way the Wind Blows after all.

Far as the Weather here is concerned, the Weathermen on NBL predict a Near Term Human Extinction, based on their best Super Computer Modelling, and since we hooked up with these folks to help them cure a variety of website problems related to spam and hacking, I have been spending a decent amount of time offsite here battling what I consider to be counterproductive NEGATIVITY on the issue of how you REACT to all the problems we face down at the moment.  Not sure there is a real good reason for arguing with people who are CERTAIN Extinction is in the offing here by Mid-Century, anymore than I am sure there is a real good reason for arguing with Christians about whether Jesus Christ was the Son of God, but I do it anyhow. LOL.

Absolute CERTAINTY of anything leads to fanaticism, particularly if what you are so certain of cannot be proven.  Data on Climate Change is a lot like Data in the Bible, it all relies on assumptions made about the past or future, neither of which can be known with certainty.  You can cross-correlate all you like to beef up your arguments, but Uncertainty remains in there always.  I think many if not most people are uncomfortable dealing with uncertainty, they pick a Conclusion that fits their thinking and then they get to STOP thinking about it, because the problem is resolved for them.  If things are Uncertain, you constantly have to re-evaluate and the Sands Shift Beneath Your Feet all the time.  You are always swimming in the Sea of Uncertainty, and this is exhausting.

https://lh3.ggpht.com/bQ5Hh08Tk8RqQX0V6kxHZzVdHQCUEfmSv8tKHEBKvWdqO5Qp2CNBDvxPgo4V9QJvwA=h900Depending on the type of certainty you have, it also leads to a kind of paralysis.  There is no purpose to playing a game anymore once you become certain of the result.  I stopped playing Civilization and PLAGUE! because once I was good enough at both those games, I was certain of the outcome, which was that I would win.  If you went to a Baseball game and were certain of the outcome, it would cease to have any excitement or meaning.  Yogi Berra phrased the reality of it most eloquently when he said “It ain’t over until it’s over”.  I remember one time leaving a Mets game with my dad in the 7th inning because he had some deal he hadda do, and the Mets were behind by like 6 runs and it looked like it was OVAH.  Riding back into Manhattan in the car listening to the game on the radio, Cleon Jones hit a Grand Slam in the bottom of the 8th inning, and then in the 9th Bud Harrelson singled in two more runs and the game was TIED!  Tug McGraw was called in from the Bullpen to pitch in Extra Innings and it went into the 11th inning before sadly the Mets lost that game, but WHAT A GAME!  I shoulda still been there too, but Dad the Pigman had more important things to do.

I get battered over the head with data references when I engage the Uber Doomers on NBL, “Have you LOOKED at the graph on Ocean Acidification?”.  Like I can’t read a graph as well as the next math genius out there.  LOL.  I am also fully aware of the 400+ Nuke Reactors out there which are Ticking Time Bombs and of the fact that the Arctic Ocean is bubbling up Methane like a warm bottle of Champagne.  What this all tells me is that at the moment Man is ahead in the Destruction Game of the Earth by 6 runs, but in this game as Guy phrases it, Nature Bats Last and I don’t know what Nature has up her sleeve here or what it is possible for her to do in the Bottom of the 9th.

http://photos.mongabay.com/06/petm2.jpgI do know that during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) the earth was a good 10 C warmer on average than it is today, but it didn’t keep going up and in fact reversed itself over time.  I also know that while there was a massive Extinction Level Event during this period, all life was not extinguished either.  It did not get sooooo hot that all the proteins denatured and no living thing could survive.    Without a good explanation for why the warming reversed at the end of the PETM and why it won’t again this time or at what average temperature level such a reversal might take place, I can’t be CERTAIN of the outcome, and so the game is NOT OVAH.

There are some things here I can be certain of, for one that BAU will not continue on here much longer.  Industrial Civilization as we know it can’t continue onward without copious amounts of cheap energy oozing up out of the ground from holes poked in GAIA’s skin by Homo Sapiens, and said cheap Oil is just about exhausted, with only very energy expensive Oil left to try to suck up from deep on down or wedged tightly into rock formations.  It’s not economic on an energy level to extract this stuff so eventually the wide open Credit Spigot for doing the development will trickle out, and the Black Gold will stop flowing.

It is also pretty certain (though not as certain) that along with the decreasing amount of per capita energy available, we won’t be able to support the vast sea of humanity we have bred up here through the Age of Oil, and a very significant Die Off of Homo Sapiens will take place.  What is uncertain and also very important here is precisely when this Die Off will begin in earnest (it already has begun in some places) and how rapidly it proceed across the Globe.  Still more uncertain than that is precisely how society and civilization will react and adapt once this commences.  You can be sure there will be some kind of reaction, you just can’t be sure exactly what form that will reaction will take.  A High Probability event of course is increasing Warfare and also major political dislocations and Goobermint changes/overthrows.  What is uncertain in this one is how that will affect your neighborhood and then how you will deal with those eventualities as they occur.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2013-03/16/132238909_21n.jpgMany if not most people on the Planet right now have very limited choices in what they can do or where they can live.  The vast majority of the world population lives in desperate Poverty in places like Calcutta, Nairobi and Mexico City.  They can’t afford a bus ticket out much less a plane ticket, and about nowhere else on earth wants to take in new refugees either. In the Great Depression, this was imortalized in the sign, “Jobless Men, Keep Going.  We can’t take care of our own.” Even here inside the FSoA, most of the population has very limited choices, means and knowledge to “Exit the Matrix”.  The folks Freezing in their Detroit apartments after the Christmas Ice Storm took out their electricity don’t know what to do, even if they had some money they wouldn’t know what to do.  The situation these folks are in is hopeless, they cannot be saved.  That is reality.

For the readers of websites like the Doomstead Diner or Nature Bats Last though, this is not the case just yet.  It may be as time goes by, but not there quite yet. Although most people do not have means to set up their own Private Doomstead in the Boonies of Maine or the Highlands of Wales, it remains possible at the moment for people to organize up here even with limited means.  That of course is why we set up the SUN4Living website. Here in the FSoA, you have to be pretty darn far off the cliff to not be able to connect to the Internet and network somehow.  You can still go to libraries for free internet access if you don’t have your own computer or smartphone.  Even if you are homeless and at least have a Netbook, you can drop in a Coffee Shop or Laundromat and use their WiFi.

Besides the Infant Project of SUN, there are other networking possibilities in existence longer. World Wide Opportunities on Organic Farms (WWOOF) provides one such type of networking, though I think you generally need to be fairly young and not encumbered by a family to pursue this paradigm.  Long in existence projects like The Farm in TN and Four Quarters Interfaith Sanctuary in PA provide a wealth of knowledge and information on transitioning off Industrial Living.

http://media.wbur.org/wordpress/9/files/2013/07/farm-624x424.jpgAre any of these ideas and methods long term Sustainable in the face of the many problems we face down here now, from Climate Change to Nuke Puke being Vomited Up all over the Planet?  Probably not, they only provide a Bridging Solution for the near to medium term as we exit the energy intensive civilization we live under now. However, Bridging Solutions are important for numerous reasons, whether or not the End is Extinction in the Near Term.  Extinction is GUARANTEED in the Long Term, so it is mainly a matter of timelines here on how long this actually takes to play itself out.  Extinction would occrur regardless of what Homo Sapiens ever did or will do in the future.  The Biosphere has a very limited timeline on the Universal Scale, it won;t support life for more than another 500M years no matter WHAT.   So why get all bent out of shape if it occurs inside the next century?  Bound to occur sometime, everything dies.

Anyhow, in the long term, you cannot win this game, that is a CERTAINTY.  All life will be extinguished on earth at some point here, you just cannot be precisely certain how long it will take.  So there is no point to playing a game where you expect the outcome to be LIFE FOREVER, unless of course you buy the Star Trek meme of Interstellar Travel, which I do not.  Even there, the Universe eventually comes to a close, either Imploding on itself eventually or expanding and randomizing to Absolute Zero over time.  In this game, all you play with are TIMELINES.

So, in such a Game, what is Winning?  Winning is lasting longer than the Weatherman predicts.  If the Weatherman predicts I can only survive to Mid-Century, I play the game to last longer than that.  When I cross the Great Divide into the Great Beyond, I will meet up with the Weatherman, and I will Lord this Over Him.  “See? You were WRONG!  Homo Sapiens did NOT go Extinct by 2050.  it took until 2150 because we played a better game than you predicted as possible.”  LOL.

Never QUIT, Never say DIE until you are well and truly DEAD.  It ain’t OVAH till it is OVAH, and the Fat Lady Sings too.  The Game is afoot, and I play to WIN.


See you on the Other Side, Guy. 😉


Knarf plays the Doomer Blues


Support the Diner

Search the Diner

Surveys & Podcasts


Renewable Energy


" As a daily reader of all of the doomsday blogs, e.g. the Diner, Nature Bats Last, Zerohedge, Scribbler, etc… I must say that I most look forward to your “off the microphone” rants. Your analysis, insights, and conclusions are always logical, well supported, and clearly articulated – a trifecta not frequently achieved."- Joe D


Global Diners

View Full Diner Stats

Global Population Stats

Enter a Country Name for full Population & Demographic Statistics

Lake Mead Watch



Inside the Diner

Quote from: RE on Today at 12:14:24 PMQuote from: Surly1 on Today at 11:33:47 AMI could go on. But why? It would test patience. Suffice it to say I've got more, if more is needed.[/quot...

Quote from: Eddie on Today at 12:26:28 PMLess is more.But go for it, and I'll be there to disagree, with a cogent argument......but frankly, I'm as tired of this subject as Surly is, and if JRM hadn't gotten his pantie...

Quote from: luciddreams on Today at 01:50:44 PM I'm taking a load from Atlanta to Dallas that delivers Wednesday morning.  I'll check him out during that trip. You and Eddie should meet up!  Stay 10' apart and ...

Interesting that in the Wiki article on Bret Weinstein JP comes up  QuoteFollowing his resignation from Evergreen, he appeared on Sam Harris's podcast,[22] Joe Rogan's podcast multiple times, and he moderated two debates between Jordan Peterson an...

Quote from: Eddie on Today at 01:29:31 PMAd hom and full of self-aggrandizing bullshit. Hitting the sauce early?How is it ad hom?  I didn't name anybody.   Far as drinking goes, it's the last thing I do bef...

Recent Facebook Posts

No recent Facebook posts to show

Diner Twitter feed

Knarf’s Knewz

Quote from: knarf on Today at 08:43:17 AMThis star [...]

Quote from: knarf on Today at 08:52:24 AMGreat quo [...]

When the Democratic primary process began, Joe Bid [...]

Diner Newz Feeds

  • Surly
  • Agelbert
  • Knarf
  • Golden Oxen
  • Frostbite Falls

Quote from: luciddreams on Today at 03:08:59 PMWhy [...]

Quote from: RE on Today at 03:01:14 PMQuote from: [...]

Quote from: Surly1 on Today at 02:53:52 PMQuote fr [...]

Quote from: Surly1 on Today at 02:53:52 PMQuote fr [...]

Quote from: UnhingedBecauseLucid on March 18, 2019 [...]

CleanTechnicaSupport CleanTechnica’s work via dona [...]

QuoteThe FACT that the current incredibly STUPID e [...]

Quote from: knarf on Today at 08:43:17 AMThis star [...]

Quote from: knarf on Today at 08:52:24 AMGreat quo [...]

When the Democratic primary process began, Joe Bid [...]

Quote from: K-Dog on February 24, 2020, 06:23:52 P [...]

I wonder how much these coins have been debased? [...]

Precious tip of the day.....Buy silver NOW  She [...]

Scientists have unlocked the power of gold atoms b [...]

Quote from: azozeo on August 14, 2019, 10:41:33 AM [...]

Quote from: Eddie on May 16, 2020, 10:30:30 AMQuot [...]

Quote from: RE on May 16, 2020, 08:20:06 AMQuote f [...]

Quote from: RE on May 16, 2020, 08:20:06 AMQuote f [...]

Quote from: Surly1 on May 16, 2020, 08:10:27 AMAnd [...]

Quote from: RE on May 16, 2020, 05:20:48 AMWhat?  [...]

Alternate Perspectives

  • Two Ice Floes
  • Jumping Jack Flash
  • From Filmers to Farmers

Papers Please! By Cognitive Dissonance     For those who may not know, Mrs. Cog and I live in the mo [...]

Lies, Damn Lies and Coronavirus Statistics By Cognitive Dissonance     “Never believe anything in po [...]

The Decline and Fall of Civil Society Chapter One By Cognitive Dissonance     From my perspective at [...]

Missing In Action By Cognitive Dissonance     As a very young pup, whenever I was overdue and not ho [...]

Politicians’ Privilege By Cognitive Dissonance     Imagine for a moment you work for a small or medi [...]

Event Update For 2020-05-22http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-05-21http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-05-20http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-05-19http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

Event Update For 2020-05-18http://jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.com/2012/02/jumping-jack-flash-hypothesis-its-gas.htmlThe [...]

With fusion energy perpetually 20 years away we now also perpetually have [fill in the blank] years [...]

My mea culpa for having inadvertently neglected FF2F for so long, and an update on the upcoming post [...]

NYC plans to undertake the swindle of the civilisation by suing the companies that have enabled it t [...]

Daily Doom Photo



  • Peak Surfer
  • SUN
  • Transition Voice

The Great Pause Week 9: México's Seppuku"The survival of life on earth depends on México’s dark fossil sunlight never seeing the light [...]

"We are one large solar flare, one errant asteroid, one mutant gene, or one nuclear winter away [...]

The Great Pause Week 7: Coping with a Nuclear Infection"Emergency preparedness plans are already inadequate, but the prospect of a mandatory mass evac [...]

The Great Pause Week 6: The Green Child"There passed long stretches of beautiful waterfront acreage with hanging Spanish moss, decayin [...]

The Great Pause Week 5 : Is it Over Yet?"The pandemic, as lethal as it has been, is not yet nearly bad enough."Área de Protección [...]

The folks at Windward have been doing great work at living sustainably for many years now.  Part of [...]

 The Daily SUN☼ Building a Better Tomorrow by Sustaining Universal Needs April 3, 2017 Powering Down [...]

Off the keyboard of Bob Montgomery Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666 Friend us on Facebook Publishe [...]

Visit SUN on Facebook Here [...]

What extinction crisis? Believe it or not, there are still climate science deniers out there. And th [...]

My new book, Abolish Oil Now, will talk about why the climate movement has failed and what we can do [...]

A new climate protest movement out of the UK has taken Europe by storm and made governments sit down [...]

The success of Apollo 11 flipped the American public from skeptics to fans. The climate movement nee [...]

Today's movement to abolish fossil fuels can learn from two different paths that the British an [...]

Top Commentariats

  • Our Finite World
  • Economic Undertow

In reply to Tim Groves. I find absolutely nothing to dissagree with about your 10:59 pm comment! [...]

In reply to Dennis L.. " A former NYC bartender, she has left her apartment in Brooklyn to move [...]

In reply to Harry McGibbs. Harry - the major economies are all paying 80% of wages up to a limit. Th [...]

In reply to Gail Tverberg. BAU Lite.... the calm before the Storm [...]

More tales from blue pill land... "The electorate will be a little bit disgruntled", that [...]

Same here! Greetings to all, and thank you Steve. [...]

Really glad to hear from you. Can't wait for the post. [...]

In reply to ellenanderson. Sorry I haven't been writing lately, there is a lot/nothing going on [...]

Hi sp gp Sorry didn't mean to be harsh. I myself go through waves of bitterness and anger (I lo [...]

RE Economics

Going Cashless

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Simplifying the Final Countdown

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Bond Market Collapse and the Banning of Cash

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Do Central Bankers Recognize there is NO GROWTH?

Discuss this article @ the ECONOMICS TABLE inside the...

Singularity of the Dollar

Off the Keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Kurrency Kollapse: To Print or Not To Print?

Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...


Off the microphone of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Of Heat Sinks & Debt Sinks: A Thermodynamic View of Money

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Merry Doomy Christmas

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Peak Customers: The Final Liquidation Sale

Off the keyboard of RE Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666...

Collapse Fiction

Useful Links

Technical Journals