AuthorTopic: The Strafing Run of Mother Nature  (Read 36208 times)

Offline cernunnos5

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Cat-6 Monster Typhoon Yutu
« Reply #495 on: October 25, 2018, 12:56:02 PM »
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/super-typhoon-yutu-strikes-northern-mariana-islands-saipan-tinian-historical-significant-damage-power-outages-life-threatening-risk-storm-surge/115728/

I may have to change my name to C6

Offline RE

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🌀 The Strafing Run of Mother Nature: Here we go...AGAIN?
« Reply #496 on: November 12, 2018, 01:11:08 AM »
http://www.tampabay.com/news/breaking/tropical-wave-in-the-atlantic-could-form-into-sub-tropical-cyclone-by-midweek-20181111/

Tampa Bay Hurricane Guide
Tropical wave in the Atlantic could form into sub-tropical cyclone by midweek

A tropical wave in the Atlantic could become a sub-tropical cyclone. [National Hurricane Center]

Gabrielle CaliseTimes Staff Writer

Published: November 11, 2018
Updated: November 11, 2018 at 06:09 PM

Hurricane season may be winding down, but there’s still a chance for more weather systems to develop as November draws to a close.

A tropical wave in the Atlantic could possibly strengthen into a sub-tropical cyclone by midweek, according to John McMichael, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

"It hasn’t even really developed into anything yet,” McMichael said.“Conditions are becoming more favorable for something to develop.”

Most of the models show the tropical wave remaining east of the United States. If it does strengthen, the storm could then move westward toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before turning north.

If it strengthens into a tropical storm it would become Patty, the 16th named storm of 2018.

Check out our 2018 Hurricane Guide.

Stay with tampabay.com for updates.
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Offline azozeo

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The Strafing Run of Mother Nature - Corn Corps are A BUST !
« Reply #497 on: May 28, 2019, 09:30:41 AM »


2019 is turning out to be a nightmare that never ends for the agriculture industry.  Thanks to endless rain and unprecedented flooding, fields all over the middle part of the country are absolutely soaked right now, and this has prevented many farmers from getting their crops in the ground.  I knew that this was a problem, but when I heard that only 30 percent of U.S. corn fields had been planted as of Sunday, I had a really hard time believing it.  But it turns out that number is 100 percent accurate.  And at this point corn farmers are up against a wall because crop insurance final planting dates have either already passed or are coming up very quickly.  In addition, for every day after May 15th that corn is not in the ground, farmers lose approximately 2 percent of their yield.  Unfortunately, more rain is on the way, and it looks like thousands of corn farmers will not be able to plant corn at all this year.  It is no exaggeration to say that what we are facing is a true national catastrophe.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/total-catastrophe-for-u-s-corn-production-only-30-of-u-s-corn-fields-have-been-planted-5-year-average-is-66
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world.
You don’t know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline roamer

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Re: The Strafing Run of Mother Nature
« Reply #498 on: May 28, 2019, 09:50:44 AM »
Indeed a potential national emergency.  I'm in the corn belt and can say those numbers could turn out even worse with coming rain and insurance deadlines.  Much of what is planted is underwater as well.  Also due to tariffs collapsing soybean prices more acreage this year was dedicated to corn. This is a very big deal and not being talked about.  I say plant a garden if you can and haven't yet. This one might really sneak up and bite.

Offline RE

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Re: The Strafing Run of Mother Nature - Corn Corps are A BUST !
« Reply #499 on: May 28, 2019, 12:48:36 PM »
Maybe they should start planting rice.


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🌀 Happy Opening Day of the Hurricane Season!
« Reply #500 on: June 01, 2019, 12:00:29 AM »
https://www.al.com/news/2019/05/tropical-trouble-in-the-southern-gulf-soon.html

Tropical trouble in the southern Gulf soon?
Updated 2:06 PM; Today 2:04 PM


The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance that could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

By Leigh Morgan

The Atlantic hurricane season begins tomorrow, June 1.

But there’s already something to watch — and it could affect the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook on Friday afternoon on the disturbance, which was a broad area of low pressure centered over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

It is forecast to move to the west and into the southern Gulf -- or Bay of Campeche -- over the weekend.

The hurricane center said some development will be possible early next week — that is, if it stays over water during that time.

Forecasters gave it a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next five days.

Development or not, the hurricane center said it could bring heavy rain to parts of southern Mexico.

Could it eventually affect the U.S. Gulf Coast? The hurricane center didn’t look that far in the future in its special outlook, and the National Weather Service in Mobile didn’t mention it either in its forecast discussions on Friday.

Farther to the west, the weather service in Brownsville, Texas, said the disturbance “should remain well to the south given how the pattern is shaping out right now, but it will continue to be monitored.”

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow, June 1, but there has already been one named storm so far.

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed and quickly dissipated several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda earlier this month.
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https://www.npr.org/2019/05/31/727905462/nearly-8-months-after-hurricane-michael-florida-panhandle-feels-left-behind

Nearly 8 Months After Hurricane Michael, Florida Panhandle Feels Left Behind
May 31, 20193:25 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

Becky Sullivan
Noah Caldwell


Nearly eight months after last year's Category 5 Hurricane Michael, communities like Lynn Haven along the Florida Panhandle are still rife with downed trees, blue roofs and piles of debris.
William Widmer for NPR

When Hurricane Michael struck the Panhandle of Florida last October, Keith and Susan Koppelman were huddled in the bathroom of their small, two-bedroom rental trailer just north of Panama City.

"When the winds came we both started praying," says Keith, 49. "I thought, 'Oh my God, this is a big storm.' "

After four hours, they finally emerged to survey the damage. The storm's 160-mile-per-hour winds had torn off the porch and peeled away the trailer's tin siding.

"It was like an atomic bomb went off," says 52-year-old Susan. Oak trees were lying flat on the ground, and a neighbor was calling for help.

The couple had been living there for only a month and a half, but the damage was so serious that their landlord evicted them to make repairs.

Susan Koppelman, 52, and Keith Koppelman, 49, stand for a portrait at a rural property outside Marianna, Fla., where they have been staying since being evicted from their trailer home after last year's hurricane. The landowners allow the couple to live in the storm-damaged house rent-free in exchange for help with the horses.
William Widmer for NPR

They say they were denied FEMA housing assistance, so they lived in their car while looking for a new place to live.

The Koppelmans are among the tens of thousands of Floridians who have been forced out of their homes since Michael, the strongest storm ever to hit the region. Some are still homeless. Many more have left the region entirely.
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Small cities along the Panhandle — a mostly rural region of coast, farmland and timber — are struggling to see a way forward between shrinking revenue and the burden of fronting relief costs. The area's largest employer, Tyndall Air Force Base, is years away from returning to full capacity.

Delaying the recovery is an impasse in Congress, which has yet to pass a disaster relief funding bill — something that normally happens in the weeks following a major storm. To top it all off, the new hurricane season begins on June 1.

An American flag flutters above a pile of rubble near downtown Panama City.
William Widmer for NPR

(Left) A church on U.S. Highway 98. (Right) A house on McKenzie Avenue near downtown Panama City.
William Widmer for NPR

Hurricane Michael downed millions of trees across Florida and Georgia. The region's lumber industry is in peril, and the dead trees are a wildfire risk.
William Widmer for NPR

Post-Michael, the Florida Panhandle is transformed. The Category 5 storm wiped out thousands of homes across its path: Michael smashed buildings to splinters, tore off roofs and sent trees careening through walls.

With the housing stock decimated, an apartment in Panama City that might once have gone for $500 per month now rents for more than $1,000. The Koppelmans were dumbfounded.

"I mean, where is the common sense?" says Keith. "Being a renter, and you're still trying to work your job, still trying to make a living — it's just so unbelievable."

The Koppelmans are temporarily staying in one room of a house an hour north of Panama City. For now, they cook meals in the microwave. "I've gotten tired of them," says Susan. "I want to cook so bad." When they finally get a place with a full kitchen, they already have their first dinner in mind: steak or pork chops with mashed potatoes, gravy and corn.
William Widmer for NPR

The only affordable situation the Koppelmans could find was an hour's drive from their jobs in Bay County — Keith on a painting crew; Susan, as a community aide at the elementary school on Tyndall Air Force Base.

A homeowner in neighboring Jackson County offered up a room in his own damaged house. There was no kitchen, so the Koppelmans would have to do dishes in the bathroom sink — but they could live there free if they agreed to help take care of the owner's six horses. They took the deal.

Before the storm, they were paying $450 per month in rent. Now, they pay that much in gas every month commuting.

"It's like our jobs don't end," says Susan. "We come home and we try to get as much done before dark so we get in bed at a decent hour, and [then we] get up at 4 a.m. and do it all over again."
National
Post-Michael Housing Crisis Runs Deep In Florida Panhandle

Housing continues to be the most pressing issue.

"Ninety percent of our homes and buildings were damaged," says Mark McQueen, the city manager of Panama City. "That was massive."

Shelly and Sam Summers stand with daughter Gabby in front of a makeshift shelter on their rural Bay County property. They opened their backyard to people who were homeless after Hurricane Michael. At the peak, about 50 people lived there. Now, there are 18. "We still have our home," Shelly says. "They have nothing. So if we can at least offer them the comforts of home, it was worth it."
William Widmer for NPR

Amanda Bohn, 29, has been living on the Summers' property with her sons Isaiah, 8, and Dominike, 9, for two months. She had been living in a rental trailer in nearby Parker but was evicted after the hurricane.
William Widmer for NPR

In Panama City, the largest and best-funded city in Michael's direct path, the effects of the storm are painfully clear, more than seven months later. Telltale blue tarps cover thousands of roofs, while others are brand new. Most unsettling, many buildings look as though the hurricane struck last week — walls collapsed, windows shattered, trees bursting through.

In Bay County, where Panama City is located, the post-storm housing crisis has been exacerbated by the high percentage of residents like the Koppelmans who are renters. Nationwide, about a third of people rent their homes. In Panama City, it's more than half.

And because of the region's tourism economy, rental properties make up an enormous portion of the available housing — further complicating things when the number of livable units dropped precipitously after the hurricane struck, just as the number of people seeking shelter spiked.

The Fletcher Black Memorial Homes public housing complex in Panama City closed indefinitely after substantial damage from Hurricane Michael. Officials say the storm knocked 43% of the city's subsidized housing stock out of commission.
William Widmer for NPR

Mark McQueen (left) and Greg Brudnicki, the city manager and mayor of Panama City. Brudnicki says the storm left Panama City looking like a war zone, "except trees were the missiles."
William Widmer for NPR

McQueen says Panama City and the rest of the Florida Panhandle need federal assistance to address this crisis.

For its part, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has provided around $116 million in housing assistance for the area. More than 21,000 Florida residents received FEMA rental assistance, though that assistance mostly came to an end in April.

Longer term, President Trump earlier this month committed $448 million of Housing and Urban Development grants to hurricane-affected regions in Florida. The long-delayed disaster relief bill, which is expected to pass next week, contains additional funds.
The 2019 Hurricane Season Will Be 'Near Normal.' But Normal Can Still Be Devastating
Science
The 2019 Hurricane Season Will Be 'Near Normal.' But Normal Can Still Be Devastating

But rebuilding housing stock through HUD grants takes years to complete. The needs of the hurricane-affected region are much more urgent.

Right now, McQueen says, it's difficult to find rooms for workers coming in to repair and rebuild.

"It's sort of the chicken and the egg," says McQueen. "If we don't get housing up, we can't get workforces. And if we don't get workforces here, we can't get the economy going. If we can't get the economy going, we can't get housing going."

The area's economic recovery also depends on the reconstruction of Tyndall Air Force Base. Counting active duty service members, retirees and their dependents, Tyndall accounts for more than 10% of Bay County's population and drives one-third of the county's economy, according to officials.

Tyndall Air Force Base's Hangar 5 lost most of its roof after the eye of the hurricane passed over the base last fall. The base is using temporary inflatable hangars to continue operations.
William Widmer for NPR

An officers club on Tyndall near the water still sits in ruins. Every structure on the base was damaged or destroyed.
William Widmer for NPR

The eye of Hurricane Michael passed directly over Tyndall, causing catastrophic damage. Every structure on the base was damaged or destroyed.

Even now, the damage is evident. A massive hangar is still missing half its roof. Numerous other buildings stand smashed and ruined by the storm, awaiting demolition.

With most of its permanent housing destroyed, Tyndall was forced to house service members in tents erected in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Michael. But these tents can't withstand heavy winds — personnel were evacuated every time there was a heavy thunderstorm — and can't be used during hurricane season. They're in the process of being dismantled.
William Widmer for NPR

Operationally, the base is carrying on about 80% of its previous mission, says Col. Brian Laidlaw, Tyndall's commanding officer. But the base is "still very much in recovery mode," he says.

Many base operations are being conducted in temporary modular buildings. The control tower reopened only recently.

The Air Force has made a commitment to rebuild Tyndall, echoed this month by Trump at his rally in Panama City. Officials estimate rebuilding will cost $4.7 billion.

Most of the funds needed to rebuild Tyndall must come from Congress. The longer Congress takes, the longer it takes to begin projects necessary to return the base to full capacity. "I can't bring lots of people back until I rebuild my childhood development center. I can't bring new and additional airmen in until I rebuild some of the dorms," says Col. Brian Laidlaw, Tyndall's commanding officer.
William Widmer for NPR

Most of the funding needed to rebuild Tyndall will have to come from Congress. The pending disaster supplemental funding bill contains more than $1 billion for construction and repair projects at Tyndall, along with a second base in Nebraska that was damaged in flooding earlier this year.

Although the Air Force funding was never in question, Congress took months to come to agreements on other contentious issues in the funding bill like money for Puerto Rico recovery and border wall projects. The House is expected to pass the bill in early June. Trump has indicated his willingness to sign it.

Because the bill has been tied up for so long, the base's long-term reconstruction has been delayed. Laidlaw estimates there are roughly 100 projects that the base is "ready to start" but can't until the funds are formally appropriated.

"As soon as the money shows up to start the base rebuild, we're gonna be ready to go. We are ready," Laidlaw says.

For the small municipalities near the base, Tyndall's recovery — including the jobs that go along with it — is one of many things to worry about.

Operations continue at Tyndall despite the catastrophic damage that remains nearly eight months after the hurricane.
William Widmer for NPR

Just across a bridge from the base is Parker, which had 4,500 residents last fall. Since Michael, the city has lost about 15% of its residents. Parker's utility revenue, its main source of income, has shrunk proportionately.

Mayor Rich Musgrave says the financial challenge is the "most frightening aspect" of Parker's recovery. The city's annual budget is $5 million; the debris removal bill alone totaled $7 million. Those contractors haven't demanded payment yet, Musgrave says.

"They've been very kind to us and not forced the issue," he says. "But at some point, the chickens are going to come home to roost."

The city of Parker employs just 33 people, a number that includes the police force, fire department and library. Normally that's plenty to run the city, Musgrave says.

But Hurricane Michael swept in a mountain of financial and bureaucratic challenges that Musgrave says small cities like his are not equipped to handle: securing debt or lines of credit; filing project worksheets and reimbursement paperwork with FEMA; applying for HUD grants.

"The demands for the paperwork and the procedures and the process on us is exactly the same as it is on a city of 50,000, and they've got the staffing" to support that, Musgrave says. "I've got a city clerk that is doing 12 jobs at once."

Rebuilding has begun on El Governor Motel on Mexico Beach.
William Widmer for NPR

But numerous other buildings, like this house near Mexico Beach, look as though the hurricane struck yesterday. Many owners are awaiting inspections or insurance payouts before beginning repairs or demolition.
William Widmer for NPR

For small cities in nearby rural counties, the challenge is even greater. Away from the coast, the Florida Panhandle is rural and poor.

"Most people think Florida is all palm trees and resorts. This is not. This is North Florida," says Craig Fugate, the former FEMA administrator and former director of Florida's state emergency management department.

In Marianna, a city of 6,000 about 55 miles inland from Panama City, Hurricane Michael wrecked the power grid, downed trees and tore off facades along the city's historic downtown.

"We just don't have the resources a lot of communities have," says Jim Dean, Marianna's city manager. The small town can't lean on an Air Force base or beach tourism for economic recovery, or a well-funded county government that can lobby Washington for help as can Panama City and Bay County. Many people work in agriculture or timber. "It's just a bigger challenge for us."

One daunting choice he faces is whether to take on debt to address problems like debris removal more quickly.

The federal government and the state of Florida will eventually reimburse 95% of these costs. But Marianna would have to pay upfront by taking on debt. Reimbursement can take months, even years. All the while, that debt accrues interest — which isn't reimbursable.

"You're going to have to be very selective at what you do, or you're going to put yourself so far in debt that you're going to be paying off debt from this storm before you even begin to provide a baseball field for your kids to play baseball on," Dean says. "Before you buy a new police car, before you buy a fire truck. Just because you're picking up trees."

Mayor Ralph Hammond of Springfield, Fla., one of the small cities in Bay County, rode out the hurricane in City Hall. The building was destroyed and has since been demolished. The site is now used as a staging ground for debris haulers. "We thought we'd be here for a long time," he says. "Michael decided it wasn't going to be."
William Widmer for NPR

Even if the delayed disaster bill passes next week as expected, it will be a long time before those funds reach Marianna and even longer before the city can break ground on any new project. That's a clock that Dean says should have started months ago.

"That money could potentially have already been on the street. There could be projects underway. There could be projects in the design phase or being bid out right now," he says. "If we had done this 200 days ago, we'd probably be in a lot better position. But we're not."

Looking into the future, the long-term financial challenges for small cities like Marianna are considerable: If the population loss is permanent, then tax and utility revenue will drop. School systems are funded per student, so a drop in enrollment could force layoffs and school closures. And if the population doesn't rebound before the 2020 census, the region could lose millions of dollars in federal funds over the following decade.

"This area was already in some cases depressed economically. The storms made it worse," says Fugate, the former FEMA administrator. "Just rebuilding from the disaster will not ensure this community recovers."

"The sun always comes up on the Gulf of Mexico," he says. "They'll eventually recover. But [for] the interior parts of the state, it's going to be a bigger challenge."

The Florida Panhandle is a heavily forested region. The hurricane tore down millions of trees.
William Widmer for NPR

Jolie Myers edited the audio stories. Maureen Pao edited the Web story.
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Offline RE

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And where are they going to get the money to build structures capable of  standing up to a Cat 5?  And how will low paid tourista biz and farm workers afford said housing?

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https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/729281299/everyone-would-have-left-putting-lessons-from-hurricane-michael-to-work

'Everyone Would Have Left': Putting Lessons From Hurricane Michael To Work
4:39

    Download

June 7, 20197:14 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition

Greg Allen


A boat carried by Hurricane Michael rests along a tree line near a canal in May in Mexico Beach, Fla. Seven months after the Category 5 hurricane made landfall near the small community, the town is still littered with heavily damaged and destroyed homes and businesses.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

As another hurricane season begins, emergency managers and other officials throughout the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast are applying lessons they learned last year during Hurricane Michael. Those lessons include how they conduct evacuations.

Michael was a Category 5 storm ripped through Florida's panhandle with 160 mile per hour winds. The night before it made landfall, Lynn Haven, Fla., Mayor Margo Anderson was in the city's administrative building preparing to ride out the storm. The National Hurricane Center warned Michael was strengthening and was now likely to come ashore as a Category 4 storm with winds over 150 miles per hour. She went on Facebook Live with a message for the town's 20,000 residents. "If you are in a house that you don't think will take sustained winds of 100 miles per hour for several hours tomorrow," she warned, "you still have time to go to a shelter."

As it turned out, Anderson and other officials in the city's administrative building should have followed that advice. A temporary pavilion now occupies the ground where the administrative building stood. Showing a picture on her cell phone, Anderson points out "the hallway where myself and the 40 members of the police department ... ended up at the end of the storm."
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The roof of the building where they sheltered is gone. Debris is everywhere. Insulation and wires hang down from the ceiling. A concrete building, she says, and Michael "ripped it away around us. We survived in the last standing hallway." The brick and concrete building, built in 1928, was reduced mostly to rubble. Nearly every building in Lynn Haven suffered severe damage. More than 250 homes were completely destroyed.

Now, eight months later, Mayor Anderson says with better information and a bit more time, she would done things differently. "Had we known it was going to be a Category 4 before we did, then everyone would have left," she says. "If I had known that it would strengthen and we had that kind of forecast before it came ashore, I would have had my police and fire [departments] evacuate as well."

For emergency managers in charge of evacuations, there's a well-worn adage: hide from wind; run from water. That's because the vast majority of deaths in hurricanes are of people who drown in flooding, including storm surge. Because of that, as Michael approached the Panama City area, Joby Smith, the chief of emergency management in Bay County says evacuations were ordered mostly for areas near the water. He says, "Storm surge is what most evacuation models are based on. And we also take into consideration though within our walls here, what do the winds look like?"

Because of last minute warnings that Michael might intensify, Bay County increased the areas under mandatory evacuation. A traffic assessment done after the storm suggested just 1/5 of the county residents ordered to evacuate actually did so.

In Mexico Beach, Fla., the community where Michael made landfall, the percentage of those who evacuated was much higher. Only 50 people were known to have been there at landfall. Jay Baker, a researcher and retired Florida State University professor who studies hurricane evacuations says, "Police went door-to-door in Mexico Beach. Now it's a small community. But that is by far the most effective way to disseminate evacuation notices."
No Move To Tighten Building Codes As Hurricane Season Starts In Florida
National
No Move To Tighten Building Codes As Hurricane Season Starts In Florida

Unfortunately, three of those who remained in Mexico Beach died in the storm surge. Elsewhere, several people died after being hit by falling trees or debris. Baker says that's one of Michael's reminders: high winds also kill. "I do think that there are a lot of people ... reassessing whether or not it's advisable to stay behind if you're going to have winds like this," Baker says. "A lot of the damage that was done wasn't to wind just blowing houses away. It was blowing big trees down onto houses."

Two people died during the storm in Jackson County, a rural area more than 40 miles from the coast with just 50,000 residents. Mandatory evacuation was ordered for people who live in mobile homes, which is almost a third of the county. But the director of emergency management in Jackson County, Rodney Andreasen says even those who lived in permanent wood or stone structures weren't safe. He says, "We saw a lot of the older buildings, brick buildings in town that collapsed and were destroyed. Some others were heavily damaged just from the wind, collapsing. The building next to us, it just came apart."

Andreasen says buildings on Florida's panhandle simply aren't designed for winds like those seen in Hurricane Michael. He says, "I think it's woke up a lot of people to that fact. And we're going to start seeing a lot of things change because of that."

Among those likely changes: how people prepare for storms, how many evacuate and how strong new construction on Florida's panhandle will need to be to survive hurricanes like Michael.
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🌀 U.S. Hurricane Season Is Unnecessarily Dangerous
« Reply #503 on: June 12, 2019, 01:58:49 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-11/u-s-hurricane-season-is-unnecessarily-dangerous

U.S. Hurricane Season Is Unnecessarily Dangerous

President Trump’s $19 billion relief bill continues a pattern of after-the-fact repairs.

By Eric Roston
June 11, 2019, 5:45 AM AKDT

In this NASA handout image, Hurricane Harvey is photographed aboard the International Space Station as it intensified on its way toward the Texas coast on August 25, 2017. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)

LISTEN TO ARTICLE
4:29

Forecasters are expecting this year’s North Atlantic hurricane season to be roughly average, with about 14 named storms including six full-fledged hurricanes. Last week, the government finally dealt with the fallout from 2018, enacting a $19.1 billion relief package to help U.S. towns and cities still recovering from last year’s natural disasters. Even before that, 2018 had already drawn more emergency funding than any year since 2005, the costliest year on record.

The U.S. is more vulnerable to economic damage from natural disasters than any other nation, according to a recent analysis of global data. For reasons that include its size and location as well as local real-estate development policies, it ranks first among developed countries for the number of lives adversely affected by destructive events. With two long ocean coastlines and a propensity for tornadoes, Americans face more, and more expensive, disasters.

What to do about it is a question of mounting concern in disaster-prone communities. The federal government has increased its disaster funding dramatically in recent years, a function of both people living in risky places and, in many cases, risks themselves increasing because of climate change. This year’s allocation was delayed by disagreements between the White House and Capitol Hill over border issues and levels of support for Puerto Rico, which is still recovering from Hurricane Maria in 2017.   
U.S. Disaster Relief Apprpriatiosn
SOURCE: Congressional Research Service

Since 1980, more than 241 billion-dollar disasters have cost the U.S. $1.6 trillion 1  and almost half of those losses came during the four most expensive years: 2017, 2005, 2012 and 2018. While emergency relief bills deliver necessary aid, Congress’s reliance on them has become an obstacle to more lasting, structural preparedness, particularly in the last few years, said Josh Sawislak, a strategic advisor to Four Twenty Seven, a consultancy focused on climate economics.

Emergency allocations don’t follow normal budget rules, which demand that spending increases be offset by decreases elsewhere. That makes relief spending relatively easy for legislators, Sawislak said, compared with preventative investment in infrastructure and services, which would have to be budgeted through normal rules.

“We have a fundamental problem, which is you're trying to come in after and clean up instead of preparing for the thing to happen,” he said.

The logistics of saving people from disasters starts long before said disaster and requires investment. Weather forecasts, warning systems and myriad other factors determine what happens during an emergency, said Samantha Montano, an assistant professor in the Department of Emergency Management at North Dakota State University. Every dollar spent on preparing for disasters prevents $6 in spending on relief and recovery, according to the National Institute of Building Sciences.

In the fall, the Disaster Recovery Reform Act directed the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) to help local governments plan storm evacuation routes, wildfire prevention and other practices that will move people to safety or prevent harm in the first place. The law also set up a mechanism that contributes an additional 6% of emergency disaster relief to FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, which helps pay for preventative measures.

“It’s a start,” Sawislak said. “If we don’t want to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on recovering for disaster, we need to spend tens of billions [on resilience].”

In April, the National Wildlife Federation asked Congress to create a revolving loan fund that communities can draw on to invest in protective infrastructure. The NWF set $60 billion as a target for the fund—one-sixth the $350 billion in disaster damages paid for by the U.S. from 2008 to (pre-hurricane season) 2017.  Money could go to protect, retrofit, upgrade or move existing infrastructure, or to relocating high-risk communities.

The U.S. faces challenges even more basic than ginning up resilience policy. Even quantifying the human toll of disasters is difficult, according to some emergency managers, particularly separating direct deaths from an event itself and indirect deaths that may come from subsequent but related disruptions. Documenting economic damage is trickier still, from initial on-the-ground responses, to physical damage, through reconstruction and ripple effects on traumatized survivors, Montano said.

“All of those numbers,” she said, “all of that data, that seem very, very basic, haven’t really been collected consistently over time and in a way that’s very useful.”
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☃️ Snow-nado Alley
« Reply #504 on: June 14, 2019, 04:20:00 AM »
That Lake Effect snow can be beyond belief.  :o

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Offline RE

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⛈️ No break in sight for rain-weary central US with more downpours
« Reply #505 on: June 16, 2019, 01:56:04 AM »
The Rain in the Plains falls Mainly every fucking day!

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/no-break-in-sight-for-rain-weary-central-us-with-more-downpours-severe-weather-on-the-way/70008563

June 15, 2019
No break in sight for rain-weary central US with more downpours, severe weather on the way
By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist


An active weather pattern will bring several more days of flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms to central portions of the country.

Storm after storm will emerge from the Colorado Rockies over the next week, and track through the Plains before moving rain across the Ohio Valley and Northeast.

This persistence of storms will bring steady, heavy rain over the same areas through the middle of next week.

"Areas that are forecast to be hit the hardest include northern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Kyle Elliott.

FloodingCentral


Cities such as Oklahoma City, Dallas, Little Rock and Springfield, Missouri could have rainfall totals of 4 inches to as much as the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches through Wednesday.

Several other cities, although out of this heaviest corridor of rain, will see plenty of wet weather over the coming days. St Louis, Indianapolis, Paducah, Kentucky, and Nashville will also have waves of heavy rain into midweek.

The already soggy growing season has caused agriculture delays for many across the central U.S. and the Midwest already. The addition of more rainfall in the coming week could have farmers are running out of time to plant many types of crops.

Those traveling will also want to keep an eye on the sky through midweek.

The heavy downpours could bring stream and river water levels over local roadways, as well as reduce visibility for drivers. Motorists, especially those on higher-speed roadways such as I-30, I-35, I-40 and I-44, should keep this in mind.


This aerial photo shows flooding along the Arkansas River in Pine Bluff, Ark., Tuesday, June 4, 2019. Photo/DroneBase via AP

Accompanying the heavy rain across the center of the country will also be the threat for severe weather.

"For the start of the weekend, thunderstorms will fire in two locations: across eastern Colorado to northwestern Texas, and eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido.

Thunderstorms in both of these locations will spread southeast, encompassing parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas into Saturday night, Vido added.


Given the ongoing flooding issues and the already wet ground, heavy downpours, no matter how brief, could have some of the biggest impacts.

More rain could lead to rising river levels, water-covered roadways and interruptions to outdoor plans.

In addition to the flooding downpours, the main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

RELATED:
6 tips to help prepare for a flood, minimize damage to your home
7 lightning safety tips if you’re caught outside during a thunderstorm
In case you missed it: Crane crumbles amid severe weather in Dallas, killing 1; Fired TV meteorologist sparks change

"The axis of storms will shift slightly south on Sunday," Vido said.

The main area of severe thunderstorms will stretch from southern Indiana and northwestern Kentucky to northern and central Texas.


Once again, the main threats with these thunderstorms will be drenching downpours, hail and damaging winds.

Determining exactly where the storms will set up on Sunday could be a bit of a challenge, following any leftover activity from Saturday night.

"The storm evolution could be rather disorganized Sunday with multiple clusters of storms in this region moving in different directions," added Vido.

The exact location of Sunday morning thunderstorms and cloud cover, will play a large role in what areas receive thunderstorms on Sunday.

Residents spending time outdoors should be prepared to take shelter indoors should they hear thunder. If you are able to hear thunder, you are close enough to a thunderstorm to be struck by lightning.

Just earlier this week, two teens in Pennsylvania were killed when a bolt of lightning stuck near them while they were outside fishing. So far in 2019, the total of reported lightning-related death stands at four.

A small adjustment in the jet stream later in the week could lead to a brief break for some locations. However, frequent storms will continue track from the west coast to the east coast, bringing more chances for rain.

Download the free AccuWeather app to see how much rain is anticipated in your community and to remain abreast of the latest flood advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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Offline RE

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🌬️ Latest Flyover Country Wacky Weather...DERECHOS!
« Reply #506 on: June 23, 2019, 12:27:55 AM »
Derechos are OK, but I wanna see BIGGER HaBOOBS and Bombogenesis!

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🌀 Hurricane Barbara pushing across Pacific as powerful Category 4 storm
« Reply #507 on: July 04, 2019, 01:40:48 AM »
...and so begins the Hurricane Season.  First target...Hawaii!  Will it make a direct hit?  Wagers?

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-barbara-pacific-hawaii-track-path-models-forecast-category-4-today-2019-07-03/


Hurricane Barbara pushing across Pacific as powerful Category 4 storm

July 3, 2019 / 8:19 PM / CBS/AP


Hurricane Barbara was pushing across the Pacific as a powerful Category 4 storm Wednesday, but it was very far from land. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph early Wednesday.

Barbara may have reached its peak intensity overnight, when its maximum sustained winds were 155 mph, just under the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 storm. The storm was located about 1,925 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

It was about 1,255 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. The forecast track carries the storm roughly in the direction of Hawaii, but it's expected to dissipate over the weekend before reaching those longitudes.
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🌀 Hurricane Season BEGINS: Target Gulf Coast
« Reply #508 on: July 10, 2019, 02:53:18 AM »
Got one forming up.  Still guesswork where it will hit.

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🌀 Hurricane Season BEGINS: Nightmare for NOLA?
« Reply #509 on: July 10, 2019, 03:16:11 AM »
This is the Nightmare Scenario 😨.  Big Storm Surge with the Mighty Mississiooi running high.

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https://slate.com/business/2019/07/new-orleans-may-face-a-storm-surge-on-an-already-high-mississippi-river-this-weekend.html

New Orleans May Face an Unprecedented Weather Situation This Weekend

By Henry Grabar
July 09, 20198:53 PM


The Mississippi River in New Orleans has never been so high, so long.

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South of Tallahassee over the Gulf of Mexico, a storm is forming. On Wednesday, the system (known now as Invest 92L) is projected to evolve into a depression and then a tropical storm or hurricane (named Barry) before heading west toward Louisiana and Texas.

If it proceeds according to the models, Barry will create an unprecedented situation in New Orleans—a cyclone-driven storm surge up a river running very high, lifting the water in the Mississippi River nearly to the top of the levees. At 19 feet above sea level, it would be the highest crest for the river in New Orleans since 1950.

“Right now 19 feet is the official forecast, and we can manage that,” said David Ramirez, the chief of water management for the Army Corps of Engineers’ New Orleans District. His team will be looking out for low points in the levees, junctures with navigation structures, and other fragile points. “The levees protect the city up to 20 feet, but 19 is close and doesn’t include waves splashing up and so on. It’s too close for comfort for us. And that surge could be more or could be less. If things change and it gets higher, at some point, there’s only so much we can do.”

“We have had high-water events in hurricane season but we’ve never had an elevation forecast like this,” Corps spokesman Ricky Boyett told Nola.com on Tuesday.
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This has not typically been a problem for New Orleans during hurricanes, which tend to arrive late in the summer when the water in the river is low. Over the past 50 years, five storms have sent seven-foot-plus surges up the Mississippi. Most came at low water. If a surge that big hit today, the river would overspill its banks and flood the city.

Hurricane Katrina, for example, sent 13 feet of surge up the Mississippi, but the river was at just 3 feet above sea level before the storm. Today it is at 16 feet. Katrina’s damage came from the north, and that’s where the bulk of the reinforcements have been made since the catastrophic levee failures of September 2005 killed more than 1,400 people.

Fortunately, Barry will not be a Katrina-sized storm. Still, it poses a test. The river levees are built to withstand storm surge, but on the assumption that tropical storms would only coincide with a river eight feet high, half its current height.

As I wrote last month, the Mississippi River in New Orleans has never been so high for so long, which poses risks to infrastructure and navigation. At the time, I thought, the odds of a hurricane storm surge coinciding with the lingering high water were slim. The subhead of my story asked a provocative question: “When will the Mississippi River come for New Orleans?” The answer, it turns out, might be this weekend.

Why is the river so high? In part because of years of intense civil engineering work that has penned in its course, slowing its path to the Gulf, stacking up sediment, and eliminating natural floodplains. Climate change is also likely a factor in the exceptionally rainy year further north that has engorged the river.

Already this year, the elaborate system of water control has been tested: The Bonnet Carré Spillway, the last chance to relieve pressure before the Mississippi hits New Orleans, has been opened twice this year (for the first time) and in consecutive years (for the first time).
That the river is only at 16 feet in New Orleans now is thanks to Bonnet Carré, which is dumping several rivers worth of fresh water (at great environmental cost) into the Gulf of Mississippi every day.
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It’s already too late to try to use the spillway to lower the river levels downstream ahead of the storm. In April, Army Corps spokesman Rene Poche told Nola.com that the engineers would be unlikely to be able to use Bonnet Carré to drop the river levels fast enough, given the length of a typical forecast and the speed of the river. Also, doing so could have unintended effects, like raising the water levels in Lake Pontchartrain, which borders New Orleans on the north, creating a whole new problem.

For New Orleans, the hope is that whatever’s brewing in the Gulf stays far away from the mouth of the Mississippi River—and that any storms after this one kindly wait until the river level starts to recede in August.
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