AuthorTopic: The Strafing Run of Mother Nature  (Read 43921 times)

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🌀 Back-Loaded Hurricane Season Bearing Down on U.S. Coast
« Reply #525 on: August 15, 2019, 03:37:36 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/back-loaded-hurricane-season-bearing-204201726.html

Brian K. Sullivan
BloombergAugust 15, 2019
"Back-Loaded" Hurricane Season Bearing Down on U.S. Coast


(Bloomberg) -- Don’t be lulled by a quiet June and July, the real Atlantic hurricane season is about to kick off.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November. But the next six weeks -- “the season within a season” -- is regularly the most dangerous and active time for storms to develop in the Atlantic, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Only two named storms have developed in the Atlantic so far this year. Dry, dusty air from Africa’s Sahara robbed potential storms of moisture, and wind shear spurred by the El Nino climate systems ripped apart budding storms. Now, those brakes on hurricane development are gone.

The result: “A big change in the pattern over the Atlantic, going from a very lackluster quiet weather pattern to a much more active one,” said Dan Kottlowski, the lead hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “We are thinking this season will be back-loaded.”

Last week, the U.S. National Weather Service forecast 10 to 17 named storms in the Atlantic. Last year, there were 15, including hurricanes Florence and Michael that killed a combined 96 people and caused more than $49 billion in damage. A storm is named when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour.

So far only two named storms have emerged in the Atlantic this year, and only one came during the hurricane season: Hurricane Barry, which looped through the Gulf of Mexico in July.

Fewest Since 1999

That’s the fewest named storms between June 1 and August 15 since 1999, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Subtropical Storm Andrea arrived in May, before the season’s official start.

At risk is $17 trillion in U.S. real estate along the coasts, as well as some of America’s most valuable commodities. More than 45% of U.S. refining capacity and 51% of gas processing is along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Florida is the world’s second-largest producer of orange juice after Brazil.

There are two other factors that could spur on storms in September, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist with Weather Underground, an IBM business.

The first is the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation, a ripple of rising and sinking air that swirls through the atmosphere about every 45 to 60 days that can spark typhoons and hurricanes when combined with other factors. It could affect the Atlantic in late August or September, Henson said.

The second is a fast-moving atmospheric system known as a “convectively-coupled kelvin wave” that’s affected by the earth’s rotation. When one runs into a tropical wave moving off Africa, it can give it a speedy boost to swirl into a hurricane or tropical storm. There is one now moving across the Pacific on its way to the Atlantic, Henson said.

Two Calm Weeks

All of this doesn’t mean the Atlantic will pop to life at high noon on August 20. The next two weeks should extend the streak of drifting doldrums across the basin, Henson said.

Once they do start rolling, though, look out. There is a deep pool of warm water tucked into the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Caribbean and along the U.S. Southeast coastline, according to Jim Rouiller, chief meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group outside Philadelphia. Any storm that reaches those areas could explode in power, he said.

“This is high-octane fuel that is all waiting in the wings for the first storm,” Rouiller said. “This is all untapped, and it will really intensify storms.”

(Adds fewest number of named storms since 1999 in the seventh paragraph. A previous version of this story corrected the wind speed for named storms in the fifth paragraph.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tina Davis at tinadavis@bloomberg.net, Reg Gale, Pratish Narayanan

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com
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🌀 Tropical Storm Dorian could become Atlantic season's first hurricane
« Reply #526 on: August 26, 2019, 02:07:01 AM »
Looks like Puerto Rico will get HAMMERED again.  ::)

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tropical-storm-dorian-gathering-strength-over-the-atlantic-latest-track-path-forecast-model-today-2019-08-25/

Tropical Storm Dorian could become Atlantic season's first hurricane


Updated on: August 26, 2019 / 2:55 AM / CBS/AP

Forecasters say the fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has strengthened as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles. The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said Sunday that Tropical Storm Dorian could intensify to near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea by Tuesday.

As of 2 a.m. Monday, Dorian's center was located about 270 miles east-southeast of Barbados and 375 miles east-southeast of St. Lucia and was moving westward at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 45 miles from the center of the storm.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch was issued for Dominica, Martinique, Grenada and its dependencies.
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The NHC said Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as much as 6 inches.

Forecasters said Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor Dorian's progress.

They said the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

The National Weather Service Tampa Bay tweeted Sunday it's "too early to speculate" if Dorian will impact Florida.

First published on August 25, 2019 / 7:17 PM
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🌀 Tidal phenomenon could make Dorian's impact even worse
« Reply #527 on: August 30, 2019, 04:48:46 AM »
Dorian is shaping up to be a major Collapse Event for FL!  NWS has even floated the possibility of a Cat 5!  :o

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https://www.koamnewsnow.com/weather/tidal-phenomenon-could-make-dorians-impact-even-worse/1114724915

Tidal phenomenon could make Dorian's impact even worse
'King Tides' may increase surge, flooding
By:

    AJ Willingham and Brandon Miller, CNN

Posted: Aug 29, 2019 01:17 PM CDT

Updated: Aug 29, 2019 01:17 PM CDT


Getty Images
A sign announces free sandbags distributed by the Seminole County government to its residents before Hurricane Dorian hits Florida in the upcoming days on Aug. 29, 2019, in Casselberry , Florida. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Dorian to strengthen into a Category 4 as it impacts Florida early next week.

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    Hurricane Dorian on Labor Day? What you need to know

(CNN) - Hurricane Dorian is gaining strength and could be a Category 4 storm by the time it approaches Florida's Atlantic coast over the Labor Day weekend. But there's another phenomenon that could contribute to Dorian's destruction.

Friday marks the beginning of Florida's King Tides, a term that refers to the highest tides in any given period. These high tides follow a cycle — after all, tides are caused by the moon and follow a predictable pattern. King Tides, sometimes called Spring Tides, typically appear in the spring and fall. (Though the term "Spring Tides" refers to spring as in the action, not the season).

However, this latest round of King Tides in Florida will be strengthened by a dangerous alignment of factors: One, the moon will be especially close to the earth, an event called "perigee." (Remember, the moon orbits the Earth in an elliptical pattern, so its distance isn't always the same.) Two, fall tides in Florida are generally the highest of the year because the water is at its warmest point.

"The sun has baked the ocean all summer in the tropics and the ocean literally expands," says CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller.
A dangerous 'perfect storm'

All of these things will combine to make one massive high tide event, and with Dorian's approach, things could get seriously dangerous.

"The hurricane will feed off this warm water and get stronger, and then the winds will push all of the water, building the water levels even higher and pushing them onshore," Miller says.

In other words, the two events will feed into each other, possibly contributing to significantly more dangerous storm surges.

"The fact that this storm is hitting during some of the highest tides of the year is very concerning," Miller says. "The King Tides adding a couple of feet to the water height is almost like the storm being a category higher on scale."

We've already learned that we can't control the weather and while trying to sensationalize Dorian's possible impact won't help either, it's important to know exactly what those in Dorian's path may be facing.

Something like the King Tides could mean those who would typically see themselves as far enough away from the storm's threat could, in fact, be in danger. Miller recommends those in Dorian's path stay as far inland and at as high an elevation as possible.
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On the upside, Mar-a-Lago looks like it will take close to a direct hit.  :icon_sunny:

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https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1171979/hurricane-dorian-2019-category-how-strong-will-dorian-be-in-florida

Hurricane Dorian 2019: What category is it? How strong will it be when it hits Florida?
HURRICANE DORIAN is continuing to intensify as it heads towards the US. But what category is Dorian now?
By Kaisha Langton
PUBLISHED: 15:31, Fri, Aug 30, 2019 | UPDATED: 21:22, Fri, Aug 30, 2019

   
   
Hurricane Dorian: Tracker shows weather front headed for Florida
Current Time 0:20
/
Duration 0:33
 

Hurricane Dorian is heading northwest across the Atlantic after slamming Puerto Rico and the British and US Virgin Islands with torrential rain and hurricane-force winds. The storm is expected to strengthen as it makes it way towards Florida, where it will make landfall on Monday. The NOAA's National Hurricane Center has warned the storm is expected to strengthen into an “extremely dangerous” storm as it heads towards the USA mainland. But what category is Hurricane Dorian now and how strong will it be when it hits Florida?
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According to the latest update from the NHC issued at 2pm AST (7pm), Dorian is located at latitude 24.8 north, longitude 70.3 west, which is approximately 445 miles east northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and 625 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida.

The NHC recorded maximum sustained winds at 115 mph (175 km/h), making it a Category 3 hurricane.
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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classifies hurricane according to sustained wind speeds as follows:

    Category 1: 74 to 95 mph
    Category 2: 96 to 110 mph
    Category 3: 111 to 129 mph
    Category 4: 130 to 156 mph
    Category 5: 157 mph or higher

Currently, Dorian is a Category 3 hurricane, meaning it will likely cause extremely dangerous which cause extensive damage.

Hurricane Dorian 2019: Hurricane Dorian 2019
Hurricane Dorian 2019: How strong is Hurricane Dorian now? (Image: NOAA/NASA)

The NHC catalogues the potential damage from Category 2 hurricanes as: "Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends.

"Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads.

"Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes."
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Hurricane Dorian 2019: Satellite image
Hurricane Dorian 2019: Satellite image of Hurricane Dorian (Image: NASA)
How strong will Hurricane Dorian be when it reaches Florida?

Tropical Storm Dorian is expected to become a stronger major hurricane, which means a Category 4 or higher, by Monday.

According to the latest update from the NHC, Dorian will make landfall off the East Coast of Florida on Monday around 2am.

The forecasts for 6am on Monday (11am BST) records the wind speeds as reaching 138 mph (120 kts).

Hurricane Dorian 2019: Forecast path for Dorian
Hurricane Dorian 2019: The forecasted path of Dorian showing when it will make landfall (Image: NOAA)

This would equate to a Category 4 hurricane, making it the strongest hurricane to strike Florida since Andrew in 1992, which killed 65 people and caused $27.3 billion worth of damage across the Bahamas, Florida, Louisiana, Southeastern, United States and Mid-Atlantic states.

The powerful storm is moving slowly, at just 10 mph (17 km/h) as it crawls northwest across the ocean surface.

Hurricanes tend to get stronger as they move over warm water like that off the Florida coast.

The NHC outlook for the storm reads: “Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).

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Hurricane Dorian 2019: Satellite image
Hurricane Dorian 2019: Satellite image of Hurricane Dorian (Image: WINDY.COM)

Hurricane Dorian 2019: Wind map
Hurricane Dorian 2019: Tropical-storm-force wind map for Hurricane Dorian (Image: NOAA)

"A slower westnorthwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week.

"On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

"Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that with maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.

"Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane Dorian 2019: Rainfall map
Hurricane Dorian 2019: A man showing the forecasted rainfall for the USA (Image: NOAA)

Hurricane Dorian 2019: NHC messages
Hurricane Dorian 2019: Key messages and warnings from the NHC (Image: NOAA)

“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

"The minimum central pressure recently estimated from an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 970 mb (28.64 inches)."

The next advisory from the NHC will be published at 5pm AST (10pm BST).
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🌀 Hurricane Dorian reaches Category 4, continues to strengthen
« Reply #529 on: August 31, 2019, 12:25:24 AM »
Think Trumpovetsky will get guaranteed Federal Loans to rebuild Mar-a-Lago?

That's a rhetorical question.

RE

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-dorian-strengthens-to-category-4-storm-as-it-heads-toward-florida

Hurricane Dorian reaches Category 4, continues to strengthen


Meteorologist Adam Klotz takes a look at Hurricane Dorian's projected path.

Hurricane Dorian has strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 130 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced Friday night.

The NHC statement said the storm's change in intensity was detected by hurricane hunter aircraft, The news raised fears that Dorian could become the most powerful hurricane to hit Florida's east coast in nearly 30 years.

STAY TUNED TO FOX NEWS FOR CONTINUING COVERAGE OF HURRICANE DORIAN

As of 8:30 p.m. ET, Dorian was about 400 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas and 575 miles east of West Palm Beach. It was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

Late Friday, the NHC's new projected track showed Dorian making landfall near Fort Pierce, some 70 miles north of President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort, then running along the coastline as it moved north.

But forecasters cautioned that the storm's track was still highly uncertain and even a small deviation could put Dorian offshore or well inland.

"It is imperative that all Floridians and their families take Hurricane Dorian seriously,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a statement on Friday night. “The time to prepare diminishes by the hour, particularly because we are still uncertain of where it will make landfall. Everyone should have seven days of food, water and medicine in preparation for this storm. Additionally, all residents need to be prepared to evacuate, should that be required.”

HURRICANE DORIAN’S PATH: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

However, authorities have held off on ordering mass evacuations, due to the uncertainty surrounding the storm's ultimate path.

"Sometimes if you evacuate too soon, you may evacuate into the path of the storm if it changes," DeSantis said.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters flight director on getting 'up close and personal' with DorianVideo

Forecasters have warned that coastal areas could see 6 to 12 inches of rain, with up to 18 inches possible in isolated areas. That amount of rainfall "may cause life-threatening flash floods," the NHC warned. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) official Jeff Byard said Dorian is likely to "create a lot of havoc" for roads, power and other infrastructure.

Also imperiled were the Bahamas, where canned food and bottled water were disappearing quickly and the sound of hammering echoed across the islands as people boarded up their homes. Dorian was expected to hit by Sunday with the potential for a life-threatening storm surge that could raise water levels as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal.

FLORIDA MILITARY BASES MOVE SHIPS, AIRCRAFT AHEAD OF HURRICANE DORIAN

"Do not be foolish and try to brave out this hurricane," Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said. "The price you may pay for not evacuating is your life."

Trump on Friday approved an emergency declaration for Florida and "ordered federal assistance to supplement state, tribal and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Dorian," the White House said.

In a video posted on Twitter Friday afternoon, Trump said the hurricane is "looking like it could be an absolute monster.

DORIAN ALREADY STIRRING POLITICAL STORM AS DEMS RIP TRUMP

"We’re ready. We have the best people in the world ready and they’re gonna help you. We’re shipping food, we’re shipping water, but it may be that you’re going to evacuate," Trump said. "We’re gonna see what happens, we’re waiting. It does seem almost certain that it’s hitting dead center and that’s not good. The winds seem to be building at a tremendous rate. It looks like the winds are going to be unbelievably high. We’re all ready. And hopefully, we’ll get lucky. But it looks to me like this time, it’s heading in one direction."
President Trump warns Florida residents of Hurricane Dorian's approachVideo

The president added that "all indications are it’s going to hit very hard and it’s going to be very big. Somebody said bigger, or at least as big as [Hurricane] Andrew [in 1992] and if you remember Andrew from many years ago, that was not good. So just be aware and be safe and God bless you."

Back in Florida, DeSantis urged nursing homes to take precautions to prevent tragedies like the one during Hurricane Irma two years ago, when the storm knocked out the air conditioning at a facility in Hollywood and 12 patients died in the sweltering heat. Four employees of the home were charged with manslaughter earlier this week.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FOX NEWS APP

DeSantis said the timely message from those arrests is this: "It's your responsibility to make sure you have a plan in place to protect those folks."

At Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, NASA moved a 380-foot-high mobile launch platform to the safety of the colossal Vehicle Assembly Building, built to withstand 125 mph wind. The launcher is for the mega-rocket that NASA is developing to take astronauts to the moon.

The hurricane season typically peaks between mid-August and late October. One of the most powerful storms ever to hit the U.S. was on Labor Day 1935. The unnamed Category 5 hurricane crashed ashore along Florida's Gulf Coast on Sept. 2. It was blamed for over 400 deaths.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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🌀 Hurricane Dorian expected to hit Bahamas before heading toward southeastern U
« Reply #530 on: September 01, 2019, 02:12:11 AM »
Latest models show it staying offshore.  Bahamas will get hammered though.

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🌀 CATASTROPHIC Hurricane Dorian Now a Category 5 Storm
« Reply #531 on: September 01, 2019, 07:52:42 AM »
175mph Sustained Winds!  The Bahamas are going to be FLATTENED!  :o

RE

https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricane-dorian-now-a-category-5-storm

CATASTROPHIC
Hurricane Dorian Now a Category 5 Storm
Barbie Latza Nadeau


Correspondent-At-Large
Published 09.01.19 9:20AM ET
Marco Bello/Reuters

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Hurricane Dorian to a Category 5 ‘catastrophic’ storm as it made landfall over the Bahamas on Sunday. The massive storm is about 225 miles east of West Palm Beach, Fla., moving at a speed of just eight miles per hour. It is expected to linger over the Bahamas for at least 24 hours before moving closer to Florida on Monday, and eventually the Carolina coast where it is expected to make landfall.
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🌀 Local 10's Jenise Fernandez reports live from the eye of Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #532 on: September 02, 2019, 08:21:58 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/_5HZhBsc0hc" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/_5HZhBsc0hc</a>
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🌀 Marsh Harbour destroyed after Hurricane Dorian passes through
« Reply #533 on: September 02, 2019, 09:21:35 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/wRpScmaFPGA" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/wRpScmaFPGA</a>
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🌀 Hurricane Dorian stalls over the Bahamas, still Category 4 storm
« Reply #534 on: September 03, 2019, 12:04:53 AM »
Scratch another tourist destination off the map.

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🌀 Aerial footage shows total devastation in Abaco, Bahamas after Hurricane Dori
« Reply #535 on: September 04, 2019, 02:08:50 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Rv08_dzb_Xw" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Rv08_dzb_Xw</a>
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🌀 Humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #536 on: September 04, 2019, 02:26:17 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/4Rnz9MhVdOU" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/4Rnz9MhVdOU</a>
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🌀 Your Morning Dorian - Norfolk in the Crosshairs
« Reply #537 on: September 04, 2019, 05:27:36 AM »
Not gonna hit like the Bahamas, but looks like serious storm surge.  Got Preps Surly?


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🌀 Tracking Dorian / Stay up-to-date with the latest on Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #538 on: September 05, 2019, 01:45:15 AM »
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2019/09/04/first-alert-dorian-slightly-stronger-tropical-storm-winds-overspread-low-country/

Tracking Dorian / Stay up-to-date with the latest on Hurricane Dorian
16 weather alerts in effect


FIRST ALERT: Dorian intensifies, regains category 3 major hurricane status

Robert's Wednesday PM Dorian Update
By Robert Whitehurst, Andrew Dockery, Sean Bailey, and Jamie Arnold | August 26, 2019 at 4:53 PM EDT - Updated September 5 at 3:25 AM

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WMBF) - Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for the entire South Carolina coastline as Dorian passes very near the coast during the day Thursday.

[ STORM SURGE: A street level look at potential storm surge levels ]

[ Everything to know ahead of Hurricane Dorian ]

[ LIST: S.C. Emergency Management Division posts emergency shelter information ]

THE LATEST:

At 11:00 PM Wednesday, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located around 190 miles south of Myrtle Beach. Dorian is moving toward the north near 7 mph. A turn to the north-northeast is expected on Thursday with a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 955 mb.

LOCAL IMPACTS:

STORM SURGE:

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft

Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft

Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft

Storm surge of this height can lead to significant coastal flooding of flood prone areas of Garden City, Cherry Grove, Pawleys Island and Murrells Inlet. Large battering waves could lead significant beach erosion, dune breaches and ocean overwash in some areas. If Dorian is stronger, or passes closer to the coast, more significant storm surge would be possible. If Dorian’s highest surge coincides with the times of high tide, even higher surge would develop with a surge of 8 feet or more possible. High tide on Thursday is at 12:28 AM and 1:34 PM on Thursday. By comparison, the storm surge from Hurricane Matthew reached 7 feet at Cherry Grove Pier, 8.4 feet at Springmaid Pier and 9.6 feet at the mouth of the Waccamaw River near Pawleys Island.
(Source: WMBF)

Impacts from storm surge could be significant and reach greater than 6 feet above ground in some areas. Inundation is likely to impact vulnerable homes along tidal creeks and waterways farther inland. Large sections of coastal roads will become flooded. Severe beach erosion is expected with significant dune loss. Sands from displaced dunes will likely deposit onto the barrier island roads. Damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is possible.
(Source: WMBF)

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL IMPACTS:

Very heavy rain will fall near and along the track of Hurricane Dorian. Rainfall amounts will drop off significantly further inland. Based on the latest forecast track, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches will be possible especially near the coast. Isolated rainfall totals of over a foot will be possible near the coast. Rainfall amounts well inland will quickly drop off to 2 to 5 inches, with areas west of I-95 likely to see even less. Areas near the coast will be very susceptible to flash flooding as the heaviest rain falls late Thursday into Thursday evening.
(Source: WMBF)

Small creeks, swashes, retention ponds, low lying areas and flood prone roads may see considerable flooding. With much lower rainfall totals further inland, major river flooding is not expected at this time, but is something to keep a close eye on by the end of the week.
(Source: WMBF)

WIND IMPACTS:

Wind gusts to tropical storm force will begin around sunrise Thursday near the coast and then gradually spread inland. Winds will gradually increase through the day with the highest winds arriving by the late afternoon and evening. Gusts to near hurricane force are likely near the beaches.
(Source: WMBF)

Based on the latest forecast track, tropical storm force wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph are likely for areas along the Grand Strand. Wind gusts of this magnitude would be capable of downing trees and power lines along with areas of minor wind damage. Shingles, roofing, siding and awnings can be damaged in wind gusts that strong. Wind gusts to hurricane force, above 75 mph, are possible right along the beaches. If the storm tracks a little further west, much higher winds would be possible.
(Source: WMBF)

Across the Pee Dee, 35 to 55 mph winds are likely especially in areas east of Interstate 95. Power outages are most likely in areas near the coast but isolated outages could occur inland as well. Trees and limbs left damaged from recent hurricanes may fall during Dorian’s winds. The strongest winds are forecast to arrive from mid morning Thursday and last through late Thursday evening.
(Source: WMBF)

TORNADO IMPACTS:

With Dorian forecast to pass just off shore, the risk of tornadoes is quite low. A few of the rain bands ahead of the hurricane could produce brief tornadoes near the Grand Strand late Wednesday night and Thursday.

SMALL CHANGES, BIG IMPACTS:

It’s important to note that any small change to the track will result in changes to the impacts. A 15-25 mile shift to the west will bringeven worse conditions onshore as Dorian moves along the South Carolina coast. While the forecast track has remained steady, there are still a few small differences in the timing and actual track from the forecast models. Last minute adjustments to the forecast track will be likely through Thursday.
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🌀 20 dead in Bahamas as Hurricane Dorian threatens historic floods in Carolinas
« Reply #539 on: September 05, 2019, 02:23:26 AM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/20-dead-bahamas-hurricane-dorian-threatens-historic-floods-carolinas-n1049841

20 dead in Bahamas as Hurricane Dorian threatens historic floods in Carolinas
"We've had an absolute horrendous tragedy," the health minister said as 20 people were confirmed dead in the Bahamas.


Thousands stranded in Bahamas after days of Hurricane Dorian's brutal winds, relentless rain

Sept. 4, 2019, 4:13 PM AKDT / Updated Sept. 4, 2019, 5:39 PM AKDT
By Alex Johnson, Saphora Smith and Colin Sheeley

The death toll in the Bahamas from Hurricane Dorian rose sharply Wednesday as the storm strengthened slightly and headed toward the Carolinas, where some of the worst flooding in 30 years was expected beginning Thursday.

Bahamas Health Minister Duane Sands told NBC News on Wednesday that 20 deaths had been confirmed so far and that the number was expected to rise. Prime Minister Hubert Minnis had called Dorian "one of the greatest national crises in our country's history" on Tuesday, when only seven deaths had been confirmed.

Sands said Wednesday: "We've had an absolute horrendous tragedy, numbers of lives lost, and we have not completed the door-to-door."
Bahamas rescue crews struggle with recovery efforts
Sept. 4, 201903:39

In a nationwide address Wednesday night, Minnis said, "So many families have been deeply impacted" by Dorian, which he said "has left generational devastation across Abaco and Grand Bahama."

Abaco Island was especially hard hit by Dorian. Countless homes were stripped of their roofs, trees were toppled, streets were flooded and debris and cars were strewn about.

Minnis said he had spoken with U.S. President Donald Trump, who he said had pledged the United States' full support and assistance. Earlier, Trump said he had sent the U.S. Coast Guard to the Bahamas to provide humanitarian relief.

Download the NBC News app for news alerts about Hurricane Dorian

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper pointed to the devastation in the Bahamas to urge people to take evacuation orders seriously. He activated 300 National Guard members and issued evacuation orders for all barrier islands beginning Wednesday.

"We have seen the life-and-death effects of this storm in the Bahamas, and we urge everyone on the islands at the coast to leave," Cooper said in a statement.

The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday night that Dorian had strengthened slightly, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, as it tracked north-northwest at 8 mph about 130 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina.
The Latest on Dorian:

    The hurricane was about 130 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, Wednesday evening and was moving north-northwest at 8 mph.
    The storm had maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
    At least 20 people have died in the Bahamas, and more deaths are expected to be reported, the prime minister said.
    Officials said Dorian was set to move near or over the South Carolina coast on Thursday and then near or over the North Carolina coast on Thursday night and Friday.

The hurricane center said Dorian would approach the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and move near or over the coast Thursday. It was expected to move near or over the North Carolina coast on Thursday night and Friday.

A hurricane warning was in effect for north of Savannah River, which divides South Carolina and Georgia, to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. Tropical storm warnings and watches extended as far north as Fenwick Island, Delaware.

"Life-threatening storm surge with significant coastal flooding is expected along a large portion of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days," the hurricane center said

South Carolina appeared to be in line for some of the worst.

High tides were expected to top 9½ feet on Wednesday afternoon and then 10½ feet early Thursday along Charleston Harbor, the National Weather Service said. Flooding occurs when tides reach 7 feet.
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Hurricane Dorian lashing the Southeast as it barrels up the coast

"Time to get out is running out," South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster warned Wednesday. "Once the wind speeds get up to about 40 or 45 miles an hour, emergency crews will not be able to come in and get you."

Since Monday afternoon, 100 miles of Interstate 26, from coastal Charleston to inland Columbia had been running one way, west. Lane reversals were being returned to normal on Wednesday, the state Public Safety Department said, but Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg said he wanted his city empty and shuttered.

"Starting late this afternoon, for 36 hours, I want Charleston to be a ghost town," he said at a news conference Wednesday. "I want everybody out of sight ... inside, hunkered down and safe."
Hurricane Dorian lashing the Southeast as it barrels up the coast
Sept. 4, 201901:47

Federal emergency declarations have been approved for four states — Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina — and the governor of Virginia has also declared a state of emergency.

While there had been no recorded deaths as a result of storm conditions in the United States, at least two people have died while making preparations in the last few days.

A 55-year-old man died Monday after falling about 15 feet from a tree in Ocoee, Florida, the fire brigade said. The man, who wasn't named, was pronounced dead at a hospital.

"He was in a tree cutting limbs in preparation, and then a limb broke lose," said Corey Bowles of the Ocoee Fire Department. "He was preparing for the storm."
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Helicopter video shows total destruction of Abaco in Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian

On Sunday, David Allen Bradley, 68, of Indialantic, Florida, died after falling from a ladder on his third-story balcony, police said. He was putting plywood on his windows, Police Chief Michael Connor said in an email early Wednesday.

Separately, a 61-year-old man died while swimming in the Atlantic Ocean near Hatteras Village, North Carolina, on Sunday, the National Park Service said.

The park service said the cause of death was unknown but that a high risk of rip currents had been forecast for most of the beaches along Hatteras National Seashore on Sunday. It was unclear whether the man was caught up in a rip current.
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