AuthorTopic: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread  (Read 5734 times)

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2015, 07:45:46 AM »
Big comeback in the Dollar today. Sure fooled me, never thought that whack yesterday could be a one day wonder.  :icon_scratch:

Guess the day is still young.  :dontknow:

Online RE

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Re: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2015, 07:56:38 AM »
Big comeback in the Dollar today. Sure fooled me, never thought that whack yesterday could be a one day wonder.  :icon_scratch:

Guess the day is still young.  :dontknow:

If it was the Chinese and they shot their load and FAILED, then Houston, we got a BIGGER Problem.

What that means is that the total market pressure is more than any given paper seller, even one as big as the Chinese can stand up to.  That is a monetary STAMPEDE.


This means the backlash against a sell side Dollar is bigger than what any indivdual seller can muster up, even a seller as big as the Chinese. That sends peripheral currencies into serious inflation, if not hyperinflation.  It squashes Oil and it squashes Gold for as long as the Stampede is underway.

We shall see how it plays out here over the rest of the week.

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2015, 02:10:53 PM »
Big comeback in the Dollar today. Sure fooled me, never thought that whack yesterday could be a one day wonder.  :icon_scratch:

Guess the day is still young.  :dontknow:

If it was the Chinese and they shot their load and FAILED, then Houston, we got a BIGGER Problem.

What that means is that the total market pressure is more than any given paper seller, even one as big as the Chinese can stand up to.  That is a monetary STAMPEDE.

This means the backlash against a sell side Dollar is bigger than what any indivdual seller can muster up, even a seller as big as the Chinese. That sends peripheral currencies into serious inflation, if not hyperinflation.  It squashes Oil and it squashes Gold for as long as the Stampede is underway.

We shall see how it plays out here over the rest of the week.
Of course, it could have been that the Chinese are just trying to slowly unwind their position, not cause a movement in the opposite direction, and they just got a little ahead of themselves and decided to pull back until the market recovered.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Palloy

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FX turmoil
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2015, 07:04:31 AM »
It's been a wild ride these past couple of days on the foreign exchange markets.  The Euro and Yen have been devalued again, and now China has lowered its interest rate by 25 points. The US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted measure against 7 major currencies, was at 95.00 at close on Wednesday, and is now at 97.01 (10 am Friday), while UST 10-year yields have gone from 2.02% to 2.09%.  Yields are supposed to go DOWN when USD goes up, so taken together that's a 5.6% swing in what's supposed to be the highest liquidity, most stable market on earth, where they measure yields to six decimal places.

The two factors are the "perfect hedge" for each other, (except when they're not), so are used for derivatives to reduce risk on carry trades.  There will be casualties from this for sure.

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Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: FX turmoil
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2015, 07:30:17 AM »
It's been a wild ride these past couple of days on the foreign exchange markets.  The Euro and Yen have been devalued again, and now China has lowered its interest rate by 25 points. The US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted measure against 7 major currencies, was at 95.00 at close on Wednesday, and is now at 97.01 (10 am Friday), while UST 10-year yields have gone from 2.02% to 2.09%.  Yields are supposed to go DOWN when USD goes up, so taken together that's a 5.6% swing in what's supposed to be the highest liquidity, most stable market on earth, where they measure yields to six decimal places.

The two factors are the "perfect hedge" for each other, (except when they're not), so are used for derivatives to reduce risk on carry trades.  There will be casualties from this for sure.

You forgot the most important one in my opinion Gold, It was up about 15 on the news, and then got slammed  by the filth to down almost 10 in a matter of minutes. Are they ever going to pay for the Gold gang bangs, I can hardly wait.

Online RE

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Re: FX turmoil
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2015, 07:31:02 AM »
It's been a wild ride these past couple of days on the foreign exchange markets.  The Euro and Yen have been devalued again, and now China has lowered its interest rate by 25 points. The US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted measure against 7 major currencies, was at 95.00 at close on Wednesday, and is now at 97.01 (10 am Friday), while UST 10-year yields have gone from 2.02% to 2.09%.  Yields are supposed to go DOWN when USD goes up, so taken together that's a 5.6% swing in what's supposed to be the highest liquidity, most stable market on earth, where they measure yields to six decimal places.

The two factors are the "perfect hedge" for each other, (except when they're not), so are used for derivatives to reduce risk on carry trades.  There will be casualties from this for sure.

I believe I have an Official FOREX thread.  I'm going to look for it and merge.

The currency markets are definitely showing signs of cracking.

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Online RE

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Re: FX turmoil
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2015, 07:38:56 AM »
It's been a wild ride these past couple of days on the foreign exchange markets.  The Euro and Yen have been devalued again, and now China has lowered its interest rate by 25 points. The US Dollar Index, a trade-weighted measure against 7 major currencies, was at 95.00 at close on Wednesday, and is now at 97.01 (10 am Friday), while UST 10-year yields have gone from 2.02% to 2.09%.  Yields are supposed to go DOWN when USD goes up, so taken together that's a 5.6% swing in what's supposed to be the highest liquidity, most stable market on earth, where they measure yields to six decimal places.

The two factors are the "perfect hedge" for each other, (except when they're not), so are used for derivatives to reduce risk on carry trades.  There will be casualties from this for sure.

You forgot the most important one in my opinion Gold, It was up about 15 on the news, and then got slammed  by the filth to down almost 10 in a matter of minutes. Are they ever going to pay for the Gold gang bangs, I can hardly wait.

$800/oz once the margin calls start to roll in.

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Offline Palloy

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Re: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2015, 02:04:33 PM »
Quote
GO: You forgot the most important one in my opinion Gold

Gold, silver and oil did at least move in the "right" direction.
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Offline Palloy

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Re: Official FOREX Nonsense Thread
« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2015, 05:15:37 PM »
It just happened again - USD Index jumped from 96.55 to 97.75 and UST 10-year yield went UP from 2.04 to 2.10%.  Fortunately an explanation is given at ZH this time - "the biggest short squeeze in history".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-28/sp-set-biggest-ever-monthly-point-gain-central-banks-go-all
S&P Set For Biggest Ever Monthly Point Gain As Central Banks Go All In
Tyler Durden
10/28/2015

In the beginning of the month, when we showed that the NYSE short interest has risen to the highest level since July 2008, we said that this indicator either means that the market is poised for a crash as it did last time, or - more likely - would result in the biggest short squeeze in history.



We said that "either a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buy-in event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes, sending the S&P500 to new all time highs."

Since then two things have happened: one after another central bank did intervene, leading to the biggest VIX monthly drop in history...



... and yes, as Bank of America said, "It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years."

So, where does that leave us?

While we still haven't taken out the all time highs said squeeze would lead to - there are about 30 points to go there; but as the following chart below shows, with just two trading days left, October is on pace for the biggest monthly point jump in S&P500 history.



... which courtesy of the earnings recession in the past two quarters, has pushed the market right beyond the point where back in May Janet Yellen said "valuations are quite high."
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