AuthorTopic: The Korea thread  (Read 3934 times)

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2018, 10:09:20 AM »
At least we get two more good holiday weekends. Carpe diem, baby!
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Surly1

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2018, 01:07:34 PM »
Kim is posturing, enjoying his 15 minutes of fame on the world stage. He will do what China tells him to do ultimately. Without China, his nuke program is bupkus.

If he launches anything, I'd be more worried about biologicals. Or maybe a stealth EMP blast. Either would be more effective than an ICBM.

This is really a standoff between the US and China. Kim is the man in the middle. Like Quaadafi. Like Erdogan wants to be.

Xi is calling the shots here. Fortunately, he has a lot more sense than Trump or Kim, and more unilateral power to act. I expect him to exert some influence here.

I generally give China credit for playing a long game, unlike us. But Xi has a good short game. He just put $500 mil in Trump's pocket, which may not be strategy but sure is good tactics.
A bribe is worth at least three good decisions.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-zte-order-after-china-gave-millions-to-trump-organization-tied-project-2018-5
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #32 on: May 16, 2018, 03:02:57 PM »
Quote
Xi is calling the shots here.

[Kim] will do what China tells him to do ultimately.

Nothing can be considered black and white here.  Of course Xi is going to be very influential, Putin is going to be very influential, but Kim is his own man when it comes down to button-pushing.

Quote
Kim is posturing, enjoying his 15 minutes of fame on the world stage.

No, he is complaining about the US and SK breaking section 2.1 of the agreement signed on April 27, less than 3 weeks ago, and the "experts" are all blaming NK for it, and pointing to all the other times NK broke the rules in the past (when he didn't, they did).

"denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula" means both NK's and US's nukes have to go, and it will have to be "with verification". Your opinion seems to be constructed to avoid having to confront the seriousness of the situation. 
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #33 on: May 16, 2018, 03:27:34 PM »
Quote
Xi is calling the shots here.

[Kim] will do what China tells him to do ultimately.

Nothing can be considered black and white here.  Of course Xi is going to be very influential, Putin is going to be very influential, but Kim is his own man when it comes down to button-pushing.

Quote
Kim is posturing, enjoying his 15 minutes of fame on the world stage.

No, he is complaining about the US and SK breaking section 2.1 of the agreement signed on April 27, less than 3 weeks ago, and the "experts" are all blaming NK for it, and pointing to all the other times NK broke the rules in the past (when he didn't, they did).

"denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula" means both NK's and US's nukes have to go, and it will have to be "with verification". Your opinion seems to be constructed to avoid having to confront the seriousness of the situation.

I read the agreement you posted, and it does not stipulate any timeline for the completion of denuclearization by anyone, nor does it do anything else other than call for dialing down the current high level of saber rattling. Its a broad agreement written in very general terms.

Did you think South Korea was going to instantly beat their swords into plowshares as an act of good faith, and then hope Kim does the same?

It is my understanding that the US withdrew all ground based nukes from Korea in the 1990's and that those weapons have been completely decommissioned.

South Korea has the capability to make nukes of their own, but sensibly decided some time ago not to. So I'm not sure what you mean by the US and SK not "denuclearizing".

The US Navy can nuke Pyongyang from thousands of miles away anytime, and that is not going to change.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #34 on: May 16, 2018, 03:31:47 PM »
And Xi is more than "influential.  Kim's regime would fail very quickly without China. China buys two thirds of NK's exports.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #35 on: May 16, 2018, 06:19:13 PM »
Quote
Kim's regime would fail very quickly without China.

Yes, but China doesn't want to lose North Korea, so it HAS TO keep supporting Kim, regardless of what he does. Same with Russia.  This gives Kim some independence of action.  He's not stupid, he was chosen by Kim Jong-Il as the smartest son and trained up for the job for years.  You only see him as a puppet because you've been brainwashed to think that way by a lifetime of MSM propaganda.

Who do you think helped NK develop its nukes and ICBMs so rapidly?
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #36 on: May 16, 2018, 07:02:49 PM »
Quote
Kim's regime would fail very quickly without China.

Yes, but China doesn't want to lose North Korea, so it HAS TO keep supporting Kim, regardless of what he does. Same with Russia.  This gives Kim some independence of action.  He's not stupid, he was chosen by Kim Jong-Il as the smartest son and trained up for the job for years.  You only see him as a puppet because you've been brainwashed to think that way by a lifetime of MSM propaganda.

Who do you think helped NK develop its nukes and ICBMs so rapidly?
Would it not be more accurate to say China does not want a failed state on its border? I agree they have to keep him alive and he is no puppet. He is obviously canny to be alive in that powder keg.  I wonder whether China is not performing a true cost benefit analysis on NK for the first time. Its got to be really expensive to support a nuclear armed neighbour and it might not be worth it to them any more. Twenty years ago NK was a heavily armed but half starved buffer country. Now it is nuclear armed and defiant. If ever China decide screw it let south Korea clean up the mess he is done brilliant or not. Not tomorrow but soon.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #37 on: May 16, 2018, 07:44:08 PM »
Quote
Would it not be more accurate to say China does not want a failed state on its border?

I think they have a lot of influence now, but what China fears is having that failed state being invaded by the US.

What they have said is:
Quote
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1060791.shtml
Reckless game over the Korean Peninsula runs risk of real war
2017/8/10

[...]

China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.

This has been picked up by the Washington Post, so everyone knows.  This very threatening language has not been repeated, as is the Chinese way.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2018, 01:20:23 AM »
South Korea's Yonhap News Agency has reported "a military source" as saying that the nuclear-capable B-52s will not take part in the on-going Max Thunder exercises, although eight F-22 radar-evading fighter jets, as well as F-15Ks and F-16s would do so.  This was a climb down as a result of North Korea's objections and canceling of yesterday's SK-NK ministerial meeting and came after high level SK-US meetings.  It remains to be seen if it was enough of a climb down to satisfy Kim.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2018, 06:58:14 AM »
Quote
Kim's regime would fail very quickly without China.

Yes, but China doesn't want to lose North Korea, so it HAS TO keep supporting Kim, regardless of what he does. Same with Russia.  This gives Kim some independence of action.  He's not stupid, he was chosen by Kim Jong-Il as the smartest son and trained up for the job for years.  You only see him as a puppet because you've been brainwashed to think that way by a lifetime of MSM propaganda.

Who do you think helped NK develop its nukes and ICBMs so rapidly?

I don't see him as a puppet. I see him as one more dangerous megalomaniac. He is, for all intents and purposes a monarch. Some communist.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2018, 08:15:55 PM »
Looks like everything is going as I predicted.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-23/peace-prize-rocks-north-korea-calls-pence-political-dummy-threatens-call-summit
Peace Prize On The Rocks: North Korea Calls Pence A "Political Dummy", Threatens To Call Off Summit
Tyler Durden
05/23/2018

Trump's Nobel Peace Prize is suddenly in jeopardy.

Just a few weeks after the US president seemed on the verge of a historic diplomatic breakthrough by getting North Korea to open its borders to the world and end its nuclear program, progress appears to have taken a sharp U-turn, and after several rounds of increasingly harsher verbal outbursts, a senior North Korean official called VP Mike Pence a "political dummy", repeated a threat to call off the planned summit with President Donald Trump and in a flashback to Pongyang's ICBM launch days, warned that Pyongyang could “make the U.S. taste an appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined."

As the WSJ reports, "in its most direct language aimed at Washington following a recent rapprochement between the two countries, Choe Son Hui, the North’s vice minister of foreign affairs, said if the June 12 talks were called off, the U.S. could instead face off with North Korea in a “nuclear-to-nuclear showdown."

In other words, the US is almost back to square one in dealing with Kim.
Choe Son Hui, North Korea’s vice minister for foreign affairs

In the past few weeks, tensions between North Korea and the United States have once again been rising after Korea refused to meet the United States’ demand of denuclearization, while the reason why Choe called Mike Pence a "political dummy" is in refernce to his Fox News interview earlier this week in which the VP reiterated the administrataion's insistence on denuclearization for North Korea.

    She also criticized the vice president for bringing up Libya in the context of denuclearization—a sensitive subject for North Korea, after Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown and killed in 2011, eight years after giving up Libya’s nuclear weapons. Mr. Pence said the Libya model would only come about if North Korea failed to denuclearize.

Choe’s statement followed "strongly worded statements" last week from other senior North Korean officials aimed at U.S. national security adviser John Bolton and at the South Korean government of Moon Jae-in, who has pushed for dialogue with Pyongyang to avoid a nuclear standoff. The latest outburst also follows yesterday's meeting at the White House between Trump and Moon, who as the WSJ puts it "have both staked their hopes—and their credibility" on a successful U.S.-North Korea summit, which has been planned for June 12 in Singapore.

However, that summit is looking increasingly precarious, especially after a series of ominously worded North Korean statements: Last week, Pyongyang warned the U.S. and South Korea against conducting joint air force drills, and called on Seoul to muzzle defectors who were questioning the North’s motives in seeking detente. The North also canceled previously scheduled talks with Seoul after the US refused to call off joint US-South Korean military drills in the region. Then last ago, a senior North Korean official said that Pyongyang wasn’t interested in a summit with the U.S. focused solely on denuclearization and accused Washington of trying to “impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq.”

Trump said in his meeting with Moon on Tuesday that he would call off his summit with Kim if the conditions didn’t work out, and put the odds of it continuing as planned at about 50-50.

    “I don’t want to waste a lot of time, and I’m sure he doesn’t want to waste a lot of time. So there’s a very substantial chance that it won’t work out. And that’s OK,” Mr. Trump said.

Still, Trump had expressed hope that Mr. Kim was sincere about wanting to make a big change in policy: “He has a chance to do something that maybe has never been done before,” Mr. Trump said. “If you look 25 years into the future—50 years into the future—he will be able to look back and be very proud of what he did for North Korea, and actually for the world.”

Meanwhole, Pompeo who secretly flew to Pyongyang over Easter to meet with Kim and break the ice between the two nations, remained adamant that denuclearization must be part of any deal with North Korea in some capacity despite the country's refusal to do so. The U.S. has maintained that they will keep military pressure on North Korea until denuclearization is achieved.

So far North Korea does not appear will to make any concessions.

In her Thursday statement published by KCNA, Choe took issue with Pence's Fox News interview in which he suggested that the North sought the summit meeting with Trump; she called Pence’s words “unbridled and impudent,” and said that “Pence should have seriously considered the terrible consequences of his words.”

“As a person involved in the U.S. affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the U.S. vice president,” she said and added that if the U.S. continues to offend the North’s “goodwill,” she would tell leader Kim Jong Un to reconsider the Singapore summit with the U.S.

“It is the U.S. who has asked for dialogue, but now it is misleading the public opinion as if we have invited them to sit with us,” Ms. Choe said. “We will neither beg the U.S. for dialogue nor take the trouble to persuade them if they do not want to sit together with us.”

And so, with just over three weeks left until the highly anticipated meeting between the two nations, Trump will have to decide whether it will back off its denuclearization demand or take a more aggressive approach with North Korea.  If it is the latter, the US will likely end up using the "Libya model", and instead of winning the Nobel prize, Trump will instead find himself greenlighting a decapitation strike, and potentially launching a new global conflict.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2018, 07:38:04 AM »
The summit's off.  Apparently the war games , and Pence saying NK would be decapitated wasn't as bad as Kim calling him an idiot.  Smother the bit about US having to denuclearise the peninsula too.

https://www.rt.com/usa/427665-trump-cancels-june-meeting-kim/
Trump cancels June meeting with Kim - White House
24 May, 2018

President Donald Trump has cancelled a much-anticipated summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, “based on the tremendous anger and open hostility” from Kim, who threatened the US with a “nuclear to nuclear showdown.”

“I was very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting,” read the letter, sent a few hours after North Korea blew up its nuke testing site at Punggye-ri. The demolition was witnessed by a small pool of foreign journalists, and was considered a goodwill gesture from Kim ahead of the planned summit.

    A letter from the President to Chairman Kim Jong Un: "It is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting." pic.twitter.com/3dDIp55xu1
    — The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 24, 2018

In his letter, Trump lamented the loss of a historic opportunity, but thanked Kim for releasing three American hostages, which he said was a “beautiful gesture.”

North Korean Vice Minister Choe Son-hui said earlier on Thursday that his country would walk away from the summit, which had been due to take place in Singapore on June 12, if Washington continued to carry out its "unlawful and outrageous acts."
Read more
US Vice President Mike Pence © Shizuo Kambayashi N. Korea calls Pence ‘political dummy,’ threatens US with ‘appalling tragedy’ & summit cancellation

"Whether the U.S. will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision and behavior of the United States," Choe said.

The ‘unlawful acts’ mentioned by Choe refer to joint military exercises carried out by the US and South Korea earlier this month. The North viewed these annual drills as intentional provocation and practice for an invasion.

Choe also singled out Vice President Mike Pence, who said earlier this week that North Korea could end up like Libya if Kim didn’t make a deal. The Libya comparison had been first made by Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton, who suggested that the denuclearization of North Korea could follow “the Libya model.”

After surrendering his weapons in 2003, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was deposed and executed in a NATO-backed coup in 2011.

Following these statements North Korea cancelled talks with the South early in May, yet not the Singapore meeting with Trump. Since then the fate of the summit had been discussed almost daily in the media with US President being vague about its prospects.

Now Trump, who used to call Kim 'rocket man,'  and North Korea leader seem to be back to threats.

“You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used,” Trump said in the letter.

Finally, Trump suggested that maybe one day, the two leaders could be friends.

“If you change your mind...please do not hesitate to call me or write,” the letter reads.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Surly1

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2018, 07:49:34 AM »
The summit's off.  Apparently the war games , and Pence saying NK would be decapitated wasn't as bad as Kim calling him an idiot.  Smother the bit about US having to denuclearise the peninsula too.

https://www.rt.com/usa/427665-trump-cancels-june-meeting-kim/
Trump cancels June meeting with Kim - White House




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"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2018, 07:57:44 AM »
No surprise. They can still give Trump the Nobel for trying SO hard to bring World Peace. What a guy.

There was never any chance here, unless South Korea took charge of their own negotiations with the North. And if that happens it won't make Bolton and Pompeo and the rest of the Pentagon war hawks happy.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: The Korea thread
« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2018, 10:05:30 AM »
No surprise. They can still give Trump the Nobel for trying SO hard to bring World Peace. What a guy.

There was never any chance here, unless South Korea took charge of their own negotiations with the North. And if that happens it won't make Bolton and Pompeo and the rest of the Pentagon war hawks happy.

I agree.

Oh, and by the way, we still have plenty of these:



And we can find some of these as well:

"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

 

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