AuthorTopic: Hyperinflation or Deflation?  (Read 135437 times)

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #660 on: October 12, 2019, 03:17:38 AM »
Yes its coming if not here already:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/no-room-to-move-graph-exposes-economys-risky-gamble/news-story/a45c1a8d8c3f5780e2ddab47ea122a94
Record low interest rates everywhere.
Europe is in recession, Oz is about to go into recession, Asia is slowing and US is probably already in recession.

Get out of debt and reduce spending now everyone. There's a bad moon on the rise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQiUFZ5RDw

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Offline Surly1

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #661 on: October 12, 2019, 03:25:33 AM »
Yes its coming if not here already:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/no-room-to-move-graph-exposes-economys-risky-gamble/news-story/a45c1a8d8c3f5780e2ddab47ea122a94
Record low interest rates everywhere.
Europe is in recession, Oz is about to go into recession, Asia is slowing and US is probably already in recession.

Get out of debt and reduce spending now everyone. There's a bad moon on the rise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQiUFZ5RDw

JOW

Always the world's best advice, JOW.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
« Reply #662 on: October 12, 2019, 03:28:35 AM »
There's a bad moon on the rise.

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Offline Surly1

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Re: 📉 Is A Recession Inevitable?
« Reply #663 on: October 12, 2019, 03:36:06 AM »
Yes.

RE

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I agree with JOW that it's already here. Despite the denials of Trumputinbots and other members of #TeamTreason.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: 📉 Is A Recession Inevitable?
« Reply #664 on: October 12, 2019, 03:42:44 AM »

I agree with JOW that it's already here. Despite the denials of Trumputinbots and other members of #TeamTreason.

Honestly, I don't think we have been out of recession since at least 2009.  The numbers get massaged with QE and interest rate changes, but the store closures and increasing homelessness has been on a steady rise through the whole time period.  Now they're just running out of ways to paper it over.

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Offline RE

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📉 The Recession Train Has Left the Station
« Reply #665 on: October 14, 2019, 04:23:29 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-14/a-china-trade-war-recession-is-already-on-the-way

The Recession Train Has Left the Station

A minor trade-war truce, if it even exists, won’t save the economy.
By Mark Gongloff
October 14, 2019, 12:28 PM AKDT


Get ready for a wild ride.
Photographer: Jason Kirk/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

Mark Gongloff is an editor with Bloomberg Opinion. He previously was a managing editor of Fortune.com, ran the Huffington Post's business and technology coverage, and was a columnist, reporter and editor for the Wall Street Journal.
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COMMENTS
LISTEN TO ARTICLE
6:46

Today’s Agenda

    A trade truce, if it even exists, won’t save the economy.
    Europe must fix its euro problem.
    Trump’s approval ratings are low but unmoved.
    America does sanctions often, but not necessarily well.
    Pragmatic poverty fighters won the Nobel Prize for Economics.

The San Diego County Fair Comes to Southern California
Almost as much fun as an inverted yield curve.
Photographer: Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images North America
A Trade Truce Will Probably Not Save Us

For the past 18 months, the global economy has been on a miserable roller-coaster ride, the Fiery Fist O’ Trade War Pain. In the past few days alone, we’ve gone from soaring highs to gut-wrenching drops. At the end of the line, recession awaits.

On Friday, President Donald Trump said he’d struck a trade truce with China, and stocks soared. This morning, China said it needed more talks to reach a truce, and markets tumbled. Having fun yet? No. (For more of this sort of “entertainment,” see the Brexit Tilt n’ Spew, which took another bad turn today.)

And honestly, even a truce of the sort Trump claimed on Friday won’t help the economic outlook much, writes Tim Duy. The global economy seems headed for a recession, which the U.S. will struggle to avoid. So the Federal Reserve will probably cut rates again this month. It has already started buying bonds to fix technical problems in the overnight repo market. (It doesn’t want to call this quantitative easing, notes Mohamed El-Erian, but for all practical purposes, that’s what it is.)

Thanks to trade hopes and those Fed bond purchases, the “yield curve” — the gap between long- and short-term interest rates — has turned right-side up, after weeks of being queasily “inverted,” with short rates higher than long ones. An inverted yield curve is a recession warning, but its un-inversion doesn't necessarily sound the all-clear, writes John Authers. Yield-curve recession signals have long lead times.

With unemployment low and consumer spending holding up OK, many people think a recession is not inevitable. Gary Shilling is not one of those people; he writes a factory-sector contraction is enough to bring on a recession, and consumer sentiment is weakening anyway.

And there’s no indication China and the U.S. are anywhere near a comprehensive trade deal, writes David Fickling. If anything, the sides seem to be growing further apart. Expect more gut-wrenching dips.
European Vexation

Back in July 2015, Greek 10-year debt yielded an astonishing 18%. Today, that yield is barely more than 1%. Greece was even able to borrow money at negative yields recently, like it’s Germany or something. Greece and Italy, not long ago the sick men of Europe, are now hale and hearty, writes Ferdinando Giugliano. But both countries still have plenty of debt and questions to answer.

The new sick man of Europe, for now, might be Germany, although it’s suffering from a different illness — not a busted budget but an economy with dismal growth prospects, writes John Authers. It won’t break out of its rut until it invents revolutionary new products. Flying Volkswagens, say.

Europe’s biggest problem, though, is an incomplete currency union. Disjointed responses have made crises worse, notes Bloomberg’s editorial board; a unified approach might have kept Greece from the brink of disaster, for example. Now’s a great time, while things are relatively calm, to fix this. Otherwise the next crisis could bring an even scarier populist backlash.
Trump Has Quiet Impeachment Day, Approval Numbers

It was a relatively quiet day on the impeachment front, which may seem like good news for Trump, but could be even better news for Democrats trying to keep their story simple. The indictments of Rudy Giuliani associates last week added new wrinkles to the story, but Noah Feldman writes they shouldn’t distract Democrats from their main message — that Trump himself, in front of the world, abused his office for personal gain.

The Ukraine scandal that has Trump in jeopardy has been going on for three weeks, during which time poll numbers in favor of impeachment have jumped. But Trump’s own approval ratings, while still very low, have been oddly static, writes Jonathan Bernstein, who has some theories on why that might be.
Another Day, Another Round of Sanctions

Less than a week after giving Turkey a green light to invade Kurdish territory in Syria, Trump is slapping sanctions on Turkey for its invasion of Kurdish territory in Syria. Trump has been a big fan of sanctions, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, writes Bobby Ghosh. But overusing them can sap them of effectiveness. It’s important to make sure they’re doing what they’re supposed to do — which starts with articulating their goals, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes.
Poverty-Fighters Win the Nobel Prize

The Nobel Prize for Economics this year went to Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo of MIT and Michael Kremer of Harvard. The three use experiments to study poverty-fighting tactics. Some call their methods overly scientific, but being depoliticized is a feature, not a bug, writes Mihir Sharma. Their prize is a victory for humble, problem-solving economics, writes Noah Smith, in contrast to quests for universal truths.

One problem Kremer has studied is refugee policy, notes Stephen Carter; he endorsed having wealthy nations pay poorer ones for hosting refugees. And the world always needs more cash for refugees; there are now 17 million, the most since World War II, writes Irene Yuan Sun. Finance can play a role in helping them, with savings accounts, microlending and more.

Further Nobel Reading: The critique of  Peter Handke’s Nobel for Literature misunderstands him. — Leonid Bershidsky
Telltale Charts

If you need visual aids for Tuesday’s Democratic debate, here’s a chart from Max Nisen and Elaine He showing where all the Democrats stand on Medicare for All:
relates to The Recession Train Has Left the Station

The second U.S. shale boom is ending, writes Julian Lee. A third is coming, though it will be less spectacular than the others.
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Offline RE

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📉 Is a Recession Coming? 3 Signs of a Stock Market Crash in 2019/2020
« Reply #666 on: October 18, 2019, 02:46:01 AM »
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