AuthorTopic: 🚛 Trade Warz  (Read 9219 times)

Offline RE

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⛰️ The G7 summit collapses
« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2018, 12:31:21 AM »
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/06/11/the-g7-summit-collapses/

The G7 summit collapses


June 11, 2018 Posted by Addison dePitt

BE SURE TO PASS THESE ARTICLES TO FRIENDS AND KIN. A LOT DEPENDS ON THIS. DO YOUR PART.

By Alex Lantier, wsws.org


Don Trumpone causes a big rififi among the leading imperialist mafia. The more chaos in the capitalist bloc, a bunch of plutocratic thugs, the better for the world. Merkel’s glaring at Trump is eloquent. Standing behind Trump is bloodthirsty consigliere Bolton.

In an unprecedented event, the G7 talks at Charlevoix in Quebec broke down Saturday, amid bitter recriminations and threats of trade war measures between countries at the heart of the world economy. Insoluble conflicts erupted over Washington’s threats to impose tariff barriers on billions of dollars of imports from the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico.

The lead-up to the conference had been marked by acrimony, with French President Emmanuel Macron rhetorically proposing to sign a “6 country agreement,” excluding the United States. Photos emerged from the summit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel leaning over a table, glaring at Trump, who left the summit early, skipping talks on climate change.

The summit issued a final communiqué papering over the conflicts, as is usual in G7 summits, condemning protectionism but making a few criticisms of the World Trade Organization in line with US complaints. The US was expected to sign, but Trump, after listening to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s post summit press conference while en route to Singapore for a summit with North Korean President Kim Jong-un, fired off a volley of tweets that signaled a comprehensive breakdown of the G7 talks.

After Trudeau said that the communiqué criticized protectionism and that Canada would maintain its $16 billion retaliatory tariffs on US goods, the biggest Canadian tariffs since World War II, Trump hurled invective at Trudeau, warning that he “will not allow other countries” to impose tariffs. He accused what are nominally the closest US allies of having targeted the US for “Trade Abuse for many decades—and that is long enough.”

In another tweet, the US president threatened a major escalation of trade war measures with tariffs on auto imports and announced the breakdown of talks: “Based on Justin’s false statements at his news conference and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our US farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our US Reps not to endorse the Communiqué as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the US market!”

This is the first time since G7 summits began in 1975—originally as the G5 with the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France—that all the heads of state could not agree on a communiqué.

What is unfolding is a historic collapse of diplomatic and economic relations between the major imperialist powers. For the three quarters of a century since World War II, a broad consensus existed internationally in the ruling class that the trade wars of the 1930s Great Depression played a major role in triggering that war, and that trade wars should be avoided at all costs. This consensus has now broken down.
The contradictions of world capitalism identified as the causes of world war by the great Marxists of the 20th century—between international economy and the nation state system, and between socialized production and private appropriation of profits—are exploding to the fore today.
. Explosive conflict and uncertainty dominate the world economy. The United States, the EU and Canada are preparing tariffs impacting untold billions of dollars in goods and threatening tens of millions of jobs worldwide. As the remarks of Trudeau and Trump show, US tariff threats are setting into motion an escalatory spiral of tariffs and counter-tariffs with potentially devastating consequences.

The collapse of the G7 talks cannot be explained by the personal peculiarities of Donald Trump. Rather, this historical milestone is an expression of US imperialism’s desperate attempts to resolve insoluble contradictions of world capitalism. Not only Trump, but prominent Democrats and large sections of the European media and ruling elite are all recklessly calling for trade war measures against their rivals.

Analyzing US imperialist policy in 1929, the year before the eruption of the Great Depression, Leon Trotsky warned: “In the period of crisis, the hegemony of the United States will operate more completely, more openly, and more ruthlessly than in the period of boom. The United States will seek to overcome and extricate herself from her difficulties and maladies primarily at the expense of Europe, regardless of whether this occurs in Asia, Canada, South America, Australia or Europe itself, whether this takes place peacefully or through war.”

The G7 summits were launched to manage conflicts between the major powers as the industrial and economic dominance established by US imperialism in World War II rapidly eroded, and after Washington ended dollar-gold convertibility in 1971. Still unable to catch up to its European and international competitors, the United States has for decades posted ever-larger trade deficits with rivals in Europe and Asia.

After the Stalinist bureaucracy dissolved the Soviet Union in 1991, lifting the main obstacle to US-led neo-colonial wars, Washington tried to counterbalance its economic weakness by resort to its vast military superiority.

Over decades of bloody neo-colonial wars that killed millions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and beyond, the United States has sought to establish a powerful military position in the oil-rich Middle East. These wars placed its forces athwart key trade and energy supply routes of its main economic rivals.

Trump’s election and his denunciations of “trade abuse” of the United States by Europe, Japan and Canada marks a new stage in the crisis of world capitalism. Bitter US-EU divisions are growing not only over trade, but over EU opposition to the US policy of threatening Iran with war by ending the Iranian nuclear deal. After decades of economic crisis and neo-colonial war, the danger is rapidly emerging of a 1930s-style disintegration of the world economy into rival trading blocs and, as in that decade, the eruption of military conflict between them.

The contradictions of world capitalism identified as the causes of world war by the great Marxists of the 20th century—between international economy and the nation state system, and between socialized production and private appropriation of profits—are exploding to the fore today.

The European powers have responded to Trump with stepped-up threats of retaliatory measures. Following the summit, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called on the European powers to respond “together” in order to defend their “interests even more offensively.”

Historically, trade war has been a precursor to military conflict. Prior to the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron responded angrily to Trump’s threatened sanctions, declaring, “This decision is not only unlawful but it is a mistake in many respects. Economic nationalism leads to war. This is exactly what happened in the 1930s.”

Amid growing tensions with the US, all of the European powers are rapidly rearming. Just one week before the G7 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel signalled her support for Macron’s proposal to create a joint European defence force, open to British participation and independent of NATO.

The only viable response to the growing threat of trade and military war is the mobilization of the working class internationally in struggle against capitalism and the danger of war. As strikes and class struggle explode around the world—among teachers in the United States, metalworkers in Germany and Turkey, and the broad movement of workers against Macron’s austerity policies in France—the social force that can lead this opposition is coming to the fore. The turn now is to the building of an international, socialist anti-war movement based on the working class.

—Alex Lantier
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2018, 06:37:33 AM »
That's better, a bit of upmanship, raise you $100 billion.

https://www.rt.com/business/429851-trump-slaps-beijing-with-50/
Trump slaps China with $50 billion in trade tariffs on imports
15 Jun, 2018

The White House has announced a 25-percent tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods in what it calls a clampdown on unfair trade practices by Beijing.

The US trade representative’s office said it issued a revised China tariff list covering 1,102 separate product categories. The first package of revised tariffs will apply to $34 billion of Chinese imports, on 818 product lines, and will enter into effect from July 6. The second package will target the remaining $16 billion of Chinese goods, on 284 product lines.

Since his presidential election campaign, US President Donald Trump has pledged to cut the trade deficit between the US and China and to curb Beijing’s allegedly unfair trade practices. Trump has also accused China of stealing US technology and intellectual property.

“In light of China’s theft of intellectual property and technology and its other unfair trade practices, the US will implement a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods from China that contain industrially significant technologies,” according to the White House statement.

“This includes goods related to China’s Made in China 2025 strategic plan to dominate the emerging high-technology industries that will drive future economic growth for China, but hurt economic growth for the United States and many other countries.”

The step is expected to escalate trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. Earlier, Chinese officials warned of mirror measures, pledging to introduce import tariffs on US goods such as automobiles, aircraft, and soybeans.

Beijing said it would swiftly impose retaliatory levies on American imports worth $50 billion. Shortly after China's warning, the White House threatened tariffs on a further $100 billion of Chinese exports.

Since becoming president, Trump has unleashed numerous trade battles, including with countries considered traditional US allies. Earlier this month, Washington introduced 25-percent tariffs on steel imports and 10-percent levies on aluminum imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico.

In March, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Russia, China, and India. The affected nations have appealed to the World Trade Organization (WTO), demanding compensation over what they call a “protectionist measure.”
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Offline agelbert

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2018, 09:31:06 AM »



Leges         Sine    Moribus      Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

Offline Palloy2

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2018, 12:18:08 AM »
https://www.rt.com/usa/430158-trump-china-trade-war/
Trump raises stakes in trade war with China, targets further $200bn-worth of imports with tariff
18 Jun, 2018

Trump raises stakes in trade war with China, targets further $200bn-worth of imports with tariff
Port in Beihai, Guangxi province, China. © / Reuters

US President Donald Trump is looking to impose a 10 percent tariff on another $200 billion-worth of Chinese goods, after Beijing imposed reciprocal tariffs on US imports, as part of an expanding trade war with Washington.

In a statement released by the White House on Monday, Trump cited Beijing’s decision to respond to US tariffs on $50 billion-worth of Chinese imports, imposed earlier, as his reason to escalate the conflict.

“China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology,” Trump said. “Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening US companies, workers and farmers who have done nothing wrong.”

The new US tariff will be imposed if China goes ahead and implements its new tariff on American goods, announced last week, the White House said, adding that trade between the two countries “must be much more equitable.” China is currently running a $376 billion surplus in trade with the US, according to the White House.

If Beijing choses to continue its tit-for-tat tariff policy with the US, Washington will impose further tariffs on imports from China in addition to the $200 billion announced, the statement warned.

Responding to the news, the Chinese commerce ministry said Beijing will retaliate by imposing similar penalties on American goods, if Washington delivers on its threat.

“The United States has initiated a trade war and violated market regulations, and is harming the interests of not just the people of China and the US, but of the world,” the Chinese ministry said in a statement.

As late as May 20, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was saying the trade war with China was “on hold” and that negotiations with Beijing were ongoing. Last week, however, the Trump administration announced tariffs on 1,102 separate categories of Chinese products, to go into effect on July 6.

China responded by setting a 25 percent tariff on 545 American products, worth $50 billion, in agriculture products, cars, and seafood. Another 114 product categories, including chemicals, medical equipment and energy industry products, will be “announced later,” the Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

China is not the only country facing the prospect of a trade war with the US. The Trump administration, in its pursuit of the “America first” policy, has recently levied tariffs on imports of aluminum and steel from the EU, Canada and Mexico, angering their leaders and making for a very chilly G7 summit in Canada earlier this month.

French President Emmanuel Macron called the tariffs “not only criminal, but a mistake,” adding, “Economic nationalism leads to war.” He also hinted that the remaining countries of the G7 combined are a bigger market than the US and “we don’t mind being six, if needs be.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariffs “totally unacceptable” and an “affront” to Canada, describing the announcement from Washington as “a turning point in the Canada-US relationship.”

“We have to believe that, at some point, common sense will prevail. But we see no sign of that in the US action today," he said on May 31, announcing retaliatory duties on US imports.
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2018, 08:10:34 PM »
Well, we won't sell them F-35s, easy.  Or Patriots.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-19/india-joins-tariff-war-party-just-starting
India Joins The Tariff War: The Party Is Just Starting!
Mike Shedlock via MishTalk
06/19/2018

In response to Trump's tariffs on steel, India will put tariffs on Harley motorcycles, lentils, and almonds.

Following the well-established belief that "trade wars are easy to win", India counters Trump tariffs, to hike duty on US bikes, almonds, apples.

    India has proposed to raise import duty on 30 products, ranging from motorcycles and certain iron and steel goods to boric acid and lentils. The customs duty on some of the items may be raised up to 50 per cent, in a signal that New Delhi will hit back at America's protectionist policies that range from a tighter visa regime to higher import duties.

    The additional duty proposed to be hiked on these items ranges from 10 per cent to 50 per cent. Those at the lowest include almonds, walnuts and fresh apples - which will cost a little more for consumers as an additional duty of 10 percent is proposed to be imposed.

    But the real impact will be on products such as motorcycles over 800 cc - a move targeted at Harley-Davidson - where an additional duty of 50 percent has been proposed. This is seen as a real counter to President Donald Trump who had demanded a reduction in tariff on the cult bike brand.

    The government threatened further action. "India reserves its right to further suspend substantially equivalent concessions and other obligations based on the trade impact resulting from the application of the measures of the US," it added.

Party Just Starting

It's so easy when it's all easy. As Trump says "Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win"

The party is just starting. Who's next?
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2018, 09:05:37 PM »
Nothing has happened yet, but Apple's business in China makes $50 billion of iPhones, so is a major target for tariffs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-19/trade-war-worsens-tim-cook-accepts-role-techs-top-diplomat
Trump Tells Cook iPhones Will Be Spared Chinese Tariffs: NYT
Tyler Durden
06/19/2018

America's business community is being squeezed by a Chinese government that is threatening hardball tactics like unexpected "customs delays" for goods produced by American (-owned or -invested) firms; and a White House that has steadfastly refused to back down from what by now has been acknowledged as a trade war by most. Gradually, even the market is waking up to the reality (considering that Dow futures are down 300+ points after Trump threatened another $200 billion in tariffs).

China

In the latest story of how American companies are responding to this fluid situation (there have been a lot of them in recent days), the New York Times  reports how all three constituencies - the Chinese government, the US government and the US business community (or at least one of its most high-profile factions) - have turned to Apple CEO Tim Cook as the unofficial "top diplomat" of America's tech community.

    Apple’s chief executive, Timothy D. Cook, may be the leader of the world’s most valuable public company, but lately he has had to act a lot like the tech industry’s top diplomat.

    Last month he visited the Oval Office to warn President Trump that tough talk on China could threaten Apple’s position in the country. In March, at a major summit meeting in Beijing, he called for “calmer heads” to prevail between the world’s two most powerful countries.

But in what is the key detail of the story the NYT - citing an anonymous individual - claims that the Trump Administration told Cook it won't slap tariffs on iPhones.

    The Trump administration has told Mr. Cook that it would not place tariffs on iPhones, which are assembled in China, according to a person familiar with the talks who declined to speak on the record for fear of upsetting negotiations. But Apple is worried China will retaliate in ways that hamstring its business, according to three people close to Apple who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

    Apple fears "the Chinese-bureaucracy machine is going to kick in," meaning the Chinese government could cause delays in its supply chain and increase scrutiny of its products under the guise of national-security concerns, according to one person close to the company. Apple has faced such retaliation before, another person said, and Reuters reported Ford vehicles are already facing delays at Chinese ports.

    There is also concern that Apple could face reprisals for legal and regulatory efforts in Washington that have made it difficult for the Chinese tech giant Huawei to sell its phones and telecom equipment in the United States.

While Cook met with Trump at the White House last month to discuss trade policy, it's unclear when the president made this promise. Of course, the White House's word is always subject to change, which is probably why Cook has embraced his new role with such zeal. And why not? His company has a lot to lose if it suddenly must raise the price of each iPhone X by 25%, or 250$ (giving it an astronomically unaffordable price tag of $1,250)...

But Cook has plenty to worry about from the Chinese government, too.

    In a trade and technology showdown between the United States and China, Apple and Mr. Cook have a lot to lose. With 41 stores and hundreds of millions of iPhones sold in the country, there is arguably no American company in China as successful, as high-profile and with as big a target on its back.

He also has a lot riding on this personally: Apple's growth in China is Cook's biggest on-paper accomplishment since taking over in 2011 from his mentor, Steve Jobs.

    Since he took over Apple from its co-founder Steve Jobs, in 2011, questions about whether Mr. Cook, 57, could recreate the magic that led to the iPod and iPhone have persisted. For Mr. Cook, the analogous breakthrough — and potentially his legacy as the heir to Mr. Jobs — has come not from a gadget, but from a geography: China.

    Under Mr. Cook’s leadership, Apple’s business in China grew from a fledgling success to an empire with annual revenues of around $50 billion — just a bit under a quarter of what the company takes in worldwide. He did this while China was tightening internet controls and shutting out other American tech giants.

Given China's growing importance to Apple's bottom line, Cook has spent quite a bit of time in the country, schmoozing with officials from the Communist Party. He can apparently speak basic Mandarin.

    Mr. Cook, who knows a bit of Mandarin, has attended China’s most important political events in a critical year for Mr. Xi. Days after a Chinese Communist Party congress wrote Mr. Xi’s ideas and name into the constitution, elevating him to the same status as Mao Zedong, Mr. Cook joined a small group of American and Chinese executives for a meeting where Mr. Xi lectured about innovation and reform.

    Later, Mr. Cook attended China’s World Internet Conference, an effort by Beijing to create a Davos-like conference for technology. There he met Wang Huning, a new member of China’s standing committee — the party’s top leadership group — and an ideological force behind China’s deepening authoritarianism.

    In March, just after an annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp Parliament formally abolished presidential term limits, Mr. Cook attended a major summit meeting that brings together Chinese policymakers and corporate leaders.

And when critics assail him for condoning the Chinese government's increasingly authoritarian bent, Cook offers a convenient excuse: He's trying to change things "from the inside," he says.

    Mr. Cook has long defended Apple’s presence in China as a way to help change the country from the inside. "Each country in the world decides their laws and their regulations. And so your choice is: Do you participate, or do you stand on the sideline and yell at how things should be?" he said at a Fortune event in China in December. "You get in the arena, because nothing ever changes from the sideline."

Of course, if China actually believed that "regime change" was anywhere near the top of Cook's priorities, Apple would've been tossed out of the country with the other American tech giants. Meanwhile, the NYT says Cook has found it easier to access top officials from the Trump Administration than their counterparts from the Obama era.

While other tech firms have balked, Apple has acquiesced to seemingly every one of the Chinese government's demands. It stores data on Chinese-run servers, it removes apps from its China app store when the Chinese government disapproves. Still, Apple has faced retaliation from China in the past: After the Obama administration indicted five Chinese military hackers back in 2014, China delayed approvals of the iPhone 6, flagging it for additional security review. Apple viewed this as retaliation for US policy. And in 2018, Apple has more money invested in different parts of the Chinese economy than it ever has before, including two research-and-development centers and a $1 billion investment in the Chinese ride-sharing company Didi Chuxing.

In other words, Apple has a lot to lose if this trade war goes off the rails. And Wall Street analysts will be watching closely for any sign that the Communist Party is turning against Apple. As Dean Garfield, head of the Information Technology Industry Council, a trade group that represents Apple and other tech companies, tells the NYT that while Chinese consumers do love Apple products "they would also love Facebook and Google."

"Xi and the national party will do what's in their interest."

In other words: For Apple, it's either play ball, or get out.
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #21 on: June 20, 2018, 07:56:28 PM »
Russia predictably joins the anti-steel tariff brigade.

https://www.rt.com/business/430244-russia-retaliation-us-tariffs/
Russia to retaliate against US steel & aluminum tariffs – economy minister
19 Jun, 2018

Moscow will seek to retaliate against Washington’s unilaterally imposed steel & aluminum tariffs against Russia and other producers, said Russian Economic Development Minister Maksim Oreshkin.

“The US continues to apply protective measures by imposing additional import duties on steel and aluminum, and refuses to provide compensation for Russia's losses. That is why Russia is using its WTO rights and introducing balancing measures with respect to imports from the United States,” he said on Tuesday.

The US recently imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. The trade penalties – 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum – took effect on June 1.

Russia’s response will apply to American goods that have an alternative produced within the country, Oreshkin said. In May, Russia informed the WTO about possible retaliatory measures in the amount of $538 million – exactly the same sum it stands to lose from America’s restrictions. The detailed list of affected American goods coming to Russia will be published within the next few days.

China, Russia, Japan, India, Turkey and the European Union have all said they don’t agree with the American tariffs on steel and aluminum, saying they cannot be explained by US security concerns – the pretext Washington has used to explain its actions. The affected countries will reportedly seek financial restoration through the WTO to the tune of $3.5 billion per year.
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🚛 Trade War with the Krauts!
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2018, 06:16:59 PM »
https://slate.com/business/2018/06/trumps-eu-auto-tariff-threats-and-his-disregard-for-the-law.html


Donald Trump’s Latest Threat Against Germany Is a Reminder That He Stretches the Law to Do Whatever the Heck He Wants

By Jordan Weissmann
June 22, 20183:42 PM


Donald Trump casually lobbed another serious economic threat at our geopolitical allies over Twitter today.

    Based on the Tariffs and Trade Barriers long placed on the U.S. and it great companies and workers by the European Union, if these Tariffs and Barriers are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the U.S. Build them here!
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 22, 2018

The tweet was aimed at the German auto industry, and it wasn’t a surprise, exactly. In May, we learned that Trump wanted to place a 25 percent tariff on foreign cars, using the same national security powers that he used to impose border taxes on steel and aluminum imports. As the tweet makes clear, however, our president is not even trying to maintain the legal fiction that these tariffs are actually about national security.

 The Trump administration’s great insight about trade policy has been to realize that it can use a relatively obscure Cold War-era law—Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962—as an all-purpose permission slip to slap duties on foreign products. The statute empowers the president to raise tariffs in order to defend U.S. “national security” interests—a broadly defined concept that includes the “economic welfare of individual domestic industries” and the “weakening of our internal economy.” If the administration wants to take protectionist measures, in theory it just needs to have the Commerce Department produce a report first purporting to show that imports are undermining our ability to make stuff domestically. That’s all the legal cover Trump needs if he wants to rain down economic revenge on Angela Merkel for looking at him the wrong way.

And yet, Trump keeps giving the game away. After Trump said that he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum under Section 232, the president announced on Twitter that he would only spare Canada and Mexico from them if they renegotiated NAFTA—thus making it clear that the levies were not about national security or protecting specific industries for the good of the nation at all, but rather gaining negotiating leverage. In the case of cars, the Commerce Department hasn’t even finished its report laying out a national security case yet, and Trump is already admitting that the tariffs are really about battering the EU into making trade concessions.

You’d think that this would all make room for a lawsuit to stop these tariffs, since the president has all but admitted that he’s only using national security as a thin pretense to do whatever the heck he wants. And yet, if its hearing on the administration’s Muslim travel ban are any indication, the Supreme Court appears to be very hesitant to second guess the White House’s official justifications for its actions based on the president’s actual statements. Trump doesn’t care what the law says. And sadly, it seems he doesn’t have to.
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🚛 Trade Warz: Trump's Trade War Revives Fears China Will Devalue Yuan
« Reply #23 on: June 27, 2018, 01:36:26 AM »
https://www.thestreet.com/markets/trump-trade-war-revives-fears-of-chinese-currency-plunge-14634564

Trump's Trade War Revives Fears China Will Devalue Yuan
Investor jitters over a major currency devaluation by China rattled markets in August in 2015 and January 2016. President Donald Trump's promised tariffs against the country's exporters have pushed such concerns back to the fore.


Bradley Keoun
Jun 26, 2018 2:45 PM EDT
Trump's Trade War Revives Fears China Will Devalue Yuan

President Donald Trump's escalating trade tiff with China is stoking investor concerns that the country might seek to devalue its currency, a fear that last gripped global markets and sent stocks reeling in 2015 and 2016.

China, which has closely managed its foreign exchange rate versus the dollar in recent years, could allow a steep drop in the value of the yuan as a way of retaliating against Trump's threatened tariffs, economists at Pittsburgh-based bank PNC warned this week in a report.
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A cheaper currency for China would help to offset the effect of any tariffs on its exports to the U.S. by helping to keep the end products affordable for consumers. A weaker yuan would also reduce dollar-based profits for U.S. manufacturers that ship goods to China -- even as they face potential new tariffs from customs officials there.

"China could deliberately engineer a much larger depreciation of the yuan if its policymakers wanted to offset the damage from tariffs to export competitiveness," the PNC economists wrote. "While unlikely, the tail risk of a Chinese devaluation would be very bad news to the global economy if realized."

In the past five years, the two biggest monthly drops in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of U.S. stocks have been triggered by just such fears. In August 2015, China made a sudden change to its exchange-rate-management policy, sending U.S. stocks down 6.3%. And in January 2016, as China showed signs of slowing economic growth and troubles managing a burgeoning debt load, investor fears of a further devaluation led to a 5.1% plunge in the U.S. stock index.

One concern is that global investors might rush en masse to pull capital out of China, leading to a broader selloff in emerging-market stocks, bonds and currencies.

The Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases in recent years have helped to make U.S. investments incrementally more attractive, pushing up the value of the dollar while weakening often-volatile emerging-market currencies.

"Export-oriented sectors started to see outflows in recent weeks, highlighting potential spillovers from escalation of U.S.-China tensions for EM more broadly," economists with the Institute of International Finance wrote Monday in a report.

Over the past week, China cut reserve requirements for its banks, a way of putting extra money into the economy without cutting interest rates. But the move has had an effect similar to that of loosening monetary policy: a weaker currency.

The yuan has slipped about 3% just in the past month, as the dollar strengthened against most world currencies.

On Monday, SEB, the Swedish bank, predicted that the Chinese yuan could weaken to 6.6 per dollar by the end of this year, compared with a previous projection of 6.2. On Tuesday, the currency traded at 6.58.

"The increasing threat of a trade war is weighing heavily on equities and currencies in export-depending emerging markets," Per Hammarlund, a strategist at SEB, wrote in the report. "More is coming."
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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2018, 05:15:00 PM »
https://www.rt.com/business/431463-eu-trump-tariffs-automakers/
Europe threatens US with new tariffs worth $300bn as trade war escalates
2 Jul, 2018

The United States could get a new round of retaliatory tariffs worth as much as $300 billion, if it moves ahead with new duties on European cars, the EU has warned.

In a written statement to the US Department of Commerce Brussels reportedly warned that imposing tariffs on European cars “will be harmful first and foremost for the US economy.”

According to the 11-page document, “an additional import tariff of 25 percent, applied to automobiles and automotive parts, would in first instance have a negative impact on US GDP in the order of $13-14 billion, and the current account balance of the US would be not affected positively.”

US President Donald Trump recently threatened to hit imports of European cars with a 20 percent tariff if Brussels doesn’t remove levies and other trade barriers on US goods.

Trump said on Sunday that the EU was “as bad” as China when it came to the way European countries traded with the US. He dismissed suggestions that his attacks on the EU were counterproductive and that he should instead strengthen relations with European countries to tackle the Chinese trade issue together.

Talking about “the car situation” Trump told Fox News: “The European Union is possibly as bad as China, just smaller. . . It is terrible what they do to us.”

The $300 billion figure identified by the EU is roughly equivalent to the value of US imports of automobiles and parts, which reached $330 billion in 2017.

According to the document, European carmakers produced 2.9 million vehicles, or 26 percent of American car production, in the US last year. Even without Chrysler, production by EU-owned companies in the US “still amounts to 16 percent of national production and 1.8 million vehicles.” The Commission noted that Chrysler was once “one of the traditional US ‘big three’ manufacturers” but is now of “European ownership.”

The EU document reminded Washington that European companies that produce in the US often import parts needed for their US factories, and also export large portions of their final product. “EU companies based in the US export a significant part of their production, thus contributing substantially to improving the US trade balance, which is a priority of the administration."

“Around 60 percent of automobiles produced in the US by companies with exclusive EU ownership are exported to third countries, including the EU. Measures harming these companies would be self-defeating and would weaken the US economy,” the document said. It pointed out that cars would become more expensive and harder to sell.

The Commission has also warned that imposing tariffs on European cars could elicit “countermeasures” from the US’s other trading partners. “The impact will be aggravated significantly by the likely countermeasures of US trading partners over a significant volume of trade,” it said.

At a summit in Brussels last week EU leaders warned that the bloc would respond to all US actions “of a clear protectionist agenda.” The EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is expected to meet with Trump in Washington this month.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkish-lira-turkey-currency-hits-new-record-low.html

Currencies

    Americas FX Asia FX EU FX

After hitting new record low, Turkish lira pares some losses on central bank statements

    The Turkish lira touched a new record low in early Asian trade.
    The lira crossed the 7 handle against the dollar before later paring some of those losses after its free fall in the previous session.

Cheang Ming   | @cheangming
Published 5 Hours Ago Updated 26 Mins Ago CNBC.com

People check currency exchange rates at a currency exchange office on August 11, 2018 in Istanbul.
Yasin Akgul | AFP | Getty Images


The Turkish lira retraced some losses after touching a new record low in Asia's Monday trade following a recent geopolitics-triggered free fall in the currency.

On Monday, the lira last traded down by around 3.5 percent against the greenback at 6.6475 at 2:30 p.m. HK/SIN. It had earlier dropped to a fresh all-time low of 7.24, before paring some losses after moves were taken to assuage market nerves frayed by the currency's recent weakness.

The retracement in losses came after the Turkish central bank moved to improve liquidity during Asia afternoon trade. Among the moves announced Monday were a slashing of lira required reserves held by banks by 250 basis points for all maturities, Reuters said.

Before that, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak had said in a Sunday interview with local media outlet Hurriyet that the government had a plan in place following the fall in the lira, Reuters reported. Albayrak said Turkish institutions will take "necessary steps" beginning Monday, but the news agency said few specifics had been provided on what those steps included.

The lira briefly plunged 20 percent against the dollar on Friday, finishing the U.S. session lower by some 16 percent after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had approved metals tariffs on Turkey to be doubled.

The weakness in the lira came against the backdrop of the Turkish economy facing major challenges, but it has come under pressure most recently after U.S.-Turkey talks over the detention of a U.S. pastor in Turkey appeared to make no major progress.

"The decline in the lira is multifaceted, caused not only by a weak external position in terms of current account deficit and inadequate currency reserves, but also the challenging political environment which exacerbates the vulnerabilities in the lira," Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a recent note.

"A mid-meeting rate hike and tightening of monetary policy may help to avert the lira's decline, to some extent," he added.

After calling for citizens to convert out of dollars and gold and buy the lira to help fight a "national struggle" last week, Turkish President Recep Erdogan said Sunday that the drop in the currency was not an accurate reflection of the country's fundamentals, Reuters said.

"There is no economic reason ... This is called carrying out an operation against Turkey," Erdogan said, based on a translation.

Although sentiment in the wake of the lira's plunge has been cautious, the turmoil in Turkey is not widely seen by analysts as posing a significant contagion risk for a broader financial crisis due to the confluence of factors that have resulted in the drop in the lira.

"[T]he drivers of the lira's decline are very specific to Turkey — therefore it should not derail the positive fundamentals in other emerging markets over a longer term," Craig said.

Still, some think the crisis could have a degree of fallout in the short term.

"While Turkey does not reflect any endemic risk amongst emerging markets, there could still be some sentiment spillovers into (emerging market) currencies and risky assets in the near term," Chang Wei Liang, a strategist at Mizuho Bank, said in a note.

— CNBC's David Reid contributed to this report.
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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2018, 09:56:38 AM »

China finds itself reeling under trade disputes with the US, as the next round of tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods is expected to start on August 23. Earlier this week, Russia offered to bail out China from the trade war with Washington. Moscow offered 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of arable land available to Chinese farmers to meet its large-scale demand for soybeans — and of course, prevent a massive soybean shortage that would lead to political/social upheavals across the country.



https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-16/russia-offers-25-million-acres-farmland-china-amid-worsening-trade-war



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« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 09:58:51 AM by azozeo »
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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2018, 10:05:03 AM »
my understanding is half of China's soybeans already come from Brazil. I assume brazil or other non tariff countries will sell more to china at a premium and the US (and canada due to Nafta) will end up filling the void in south america at a lower price... That is trade wars, everyone loses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-soybean-tariff/
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 11:37:39 AM by David B. »
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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2018, 12:04:54 PM »

China finds itself reeling under trade disputes with the US, as the next round of tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods is expected to start on August 23. Earlier this week, Russia offered to bail out China from the trade war with Washington. Moscow offered 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of arable land available to Chinese farmers to meet its large-scale demand for soybeans — and of course, prevent a massive soybean shortage that would lead to political/social upheavals across the country.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-16/russia-offers-25-million-acres-farmland-china-amid-worsening-trade-war

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/8blm47kaJOo&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/8blm47kaJOo&fs=1</a>

Saw a reference to the Russian land offer elsewhere as well.

BRICS Brothers have to hang together.
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Offline azozeo

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Re: 🚛 Trade Warz
« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2018, 12:40:31 PM »

China finds itself reeling under trade disputes with the US, as the next round of tariffs on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods is expected to start on August 23. Earlier this week, Russia offered to bail out China from the trade war with Washington. Moscow offered 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of arable land available to Chinese farmers to meet its large-scale demand for soybeans — and of course, prevent a massive soybean shortage that would lead to political/social upheavals across the country.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-16/russia-offers-25-million-acres-farmland-china-amid-worsening-trade-war

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/8blm47kaJOo&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/8blm47kaJOo&fs=1</a>

Saw a reference to the Russian land offer elsewhere as well.

BRICS Brothers have to hang together.


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