AuthorTopic: Peak Oil Primer  (Read 14668 times)

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39130
    • View Profile
Peak Oil Primer
« on: December 05, 2012, 01:48:03 AM »
Peak Oil Primer by Diner Monsta666 now UP on the Diner Blog!

'This thread is dedicated to providing basic information to Rookies on the consequences of per capita energy depletion issues.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2012, 03:47:14 AM »
Monsta

Thanks for this thorough overview. I think history is against the CFS assumption that oil producing countries will  horad their own production. The behavior of individual motorists isnt really an indicator. Govts are addicted to revenue so sell off national assets/resources all the time. Even food, The irish potato famine which saw paddy starve to death of 1890 was not because of a poor crop. It was because the crop was sold on the international market, as just one example.

I think we are seeing a demand destruction caused by unemployment and austerity working its way around the western world, and at the same time massive demand increase in the developing world for oil. BILLIONS of asians and south americans saying hey my time to shine.


I also think food and fresh water shortage will hit and force issues before oil shortage. The US drought, natural disasters and aquifer depletion issues are likely to catch up to cause actual famine within a few years as long as they are reserve currency they can import plenty from south america.

At the same time Chinas industrialization and urbanization and pollution make it dependent on buying up huge farmland around the world. What happens when push comes to shove? The ongoing plan to slowly dump dollars, stockpile gold and challenge as world reserve currency has to bring matters to a head at some point. When they both want the same food farms There is no challenge to the US navy if they blockade. That is when you have a 200 million man hungry army marching west.
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline monsta666

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 1390
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2012, 01:41:06 PM »
Monsta

Thanks for this thorough overview. I think history is against the CFS assumption that oil producing countries will  horad their own production. The behavior of individual motorists isnt really an indicator. Govts are addicted to revenue so sell off national assets/resources all the time. Even food, The irish potato famine which saw paddy starve to death of 1890 was not because of a poor crop. It was because the crop was sold on the international market, as just one example.

It is hard to say which way things will go. When deciding upon the examples to give in the article I wrote I was conflicted in whether to bring up the hoarding examples of the UK or mention the example of hoarding by food exporting nations in 2008 when the price of food rose rapidly. I opted to chose the former because I was thinking of printing out this article and showing it to people who are not aware of peak oil and since I live in the UK I thought an example closer to home would be more suitable for that purpose.

I also think food and fresh water shortage will hit and force issues before oil shortage. The US drought, natural disasters and aquifer depletion issues are likely to catch up to cause actual famine within a few years as long as they are reserve currency they can import plenty from south america.

It is hard to say which issue will come first. It is quite likely that since food, water and oil are to various degrees dependant on one another that we will see a scarcity of all commodities within a short period of time of one commodity becoming scarce. I think which commodity becomes scarce first will depend on which region of the world you are talking about. For example I can envision the Indians having water shortages first, followed by food then finally oil. Whereas I think oil shortages in Europe will hit first before they see shortages of food/water. In fact the increasing unaffordability of oil in Europe could be seen as a shortage of oil.

At the same time Chinas industrialization and urbanization and pollution make it dependent on buying up huge farmland around the world. What happens when push comes to shove? The ongoing plan to slowly dump dollars, stockpile gold and challenge as world reserve currency has to bring matters to a head at some point. When they both want the same food farms There is no challenge to the US navy if they blockade. That is when you have a 200 million man hungry army marching west.

If push comes to shove I feel those bought out farmlands will be repossessed and redistributed to the natives of the nation. If the nation is in turmoil and people need food and see a rich foreigner sending food home they will be seen as prey and targets for the hungry masses. Only way to stop this is if the host nation has an army to defend the said farmer or can pull the needed economic/political strings but I see those options as being less feasible once the conduits begin to fail. What is more once there is turmoil in China it is likely to escalate quite quickly as there will be no democratic process to relieve social frustrations. Revolution will be seen as the only option for this release and since this will be suppressed for as long as possible it is likely to lead to an explosive and sudden situation much like the Arab springs of last year. In such circumstances it is difficult to imagine how the Chinese government can manage civil unrest and prevent the loss of foreign farmlands.

Offline g

  • Golden Oxen
  • Contrarian
  • Master Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 12280
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2012, 02:20:00 PM »
Have tried to figure out how it will come about and if it is the oil, water or food first, Monsta.

My gut feeling is that they are closely related and whichever is first will create the other two shortages very quickly.

Before any of this comes about however I am totally convinced there will be an enormous unimagined spike in the prices of these items in real terms, that will create a massive world wide poor class, many times larger than exists now and then we shall see how TBTB manage the discontent and unrest. If they can rid themselves of us slowly and decisively they will probably have another good run for themselves with  the resources that are left.

Whatever the case the idea of 7 billion people having access to these items is preposterous, look for the pricing mechanism be it inflation or deflation to remove it from their usage shortly.
















Offline Futilitist

  • Red Psycho
  • Bussing Staff
  • *
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2012, 02:29:58 PM »
Hey monsta666,

I read your peak oil primer.  It is a very good summary, with about the right balance of detail throughout.

I love the graph on the volatility of oil prices.

You should start a thread with a link to the primer, at that other place I've seen you recently.


Hey RE,

How's it going?  I would like to maybe post again here, if that would be Ok with you.  I promise to mostly behave.  Can I have my posting privileges back?  Thanks.

---Futilitist   

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2012, 06:27:04 PM »
Monsta

All good points, I know the Russians are not putting any grain on the world market next year, so already a sign of hoarding. However it seems to be always different when it comes to oil and gas. I think as with other natural resources sush as mining, the companies that extract the oil or ore are international operations like BP or BHP, therefore it goes without saying they are doing this only to sell on world market.

Farmers OTOH do not raise the same sort of revenue for govt spending addiction, also the farmers are individual citizens or not multinationals, although big companies have squeezed out most small time operators. Anyway it seems food and fuel follow some different rules.

I also think there is ZERO chance of hoarding your fuel for domestic consumption if it is required by the war effort as priority. Anyone who thinks Australia will use its own oil to keep the local economy running if it is needed  by the US war effort is dreaming. Oil will go to the military, police, and other core govt vehicles, but not J6P who works in a consumer based defunct workplace.

Farms will be nationalized im sure, and there will be a prioritization of food to the military, police and elite. Any shortage after that for J6Pis just too bad.

GO
It seems that austerity is at least a stopgap mechanism to price these essentials and nonessentials out of reach. The austerity in the EU is doing so already, and its clear that with the looming FC in the US it makes no difference at all going over or reaching a deal b4hand, either way its austerity. Calling a deal calms the markets of course and makes BO seem like a savior again to the very same people like ghetto black folks who get shafted, lots and lots of shafting coming.

ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2012, 07:47:34 PM »
Well we are dealing with the business of extrapolation into the future here. Clearly for that reason the writer has has been painstaking in crossing i's and dottingt t's in rounding out the arguments. Often when you assume people are following and you can leave this or that out you find you were wrong and you made the wrong choice in leaving out this or that detail.  More history would have made this too long and readers would then skip or skim. Monsta is usually always referring to history in his posts.
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39130
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2012, 11:18:07 PM »
Well we are dealing with the business of extrapolation into the future here. Clearly for that reason the writer has has been painstaking in crossing i's and dottingt t's in rounding out the arguments. Often when you assume people are following and you can leave this or that out you find you were wrong and you made the wrong choice in leaving out this or that detail.  More history would have made this too long and readers would then skip or skim. Monsta is usually always referring to history in his posts.

I thought the article captured the basics pretty well without being too long for the Sound Bite crowd or too short for the more detail oriented.

One thing that can be done for the deeper thinkers is to add Hyperlinks to the article text for those interested in going deeper into it, though this is time consuming to do.  However, if Monsta does add more Links inside the article and sends me an Update, I will exchange the Update for the current article.

For the Sound Bite crowd, you can add an article Abstract at the beginning to capture main points, and again hyperlink them to the main article.  All of these techniques though take extra time to do.  I generally bother with neither one.  If a given reader cannot make it through 2000-5000 words of text and can't Google for more info either, he/she is probably not worth Saving.  LOL.

RE

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2012, 11:44:48 PM »
Why is that directed to me rather than MKing? Im fine with 2500-5000 words in order to be taken seriously. If I had my way there would be no sidetracks in the middle of reading, there would be a citation (666 2012) and a REFERENCES section later.
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39130
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2012, 01:47:00 AM »

Hey RE,

How's it going?  I would like to maybe post again here, if that would be Ok with you.  I promise to mostly behave.  Can I have my posting privileges back?  Thanks.

---Futilitist

Actually, your posting priviledges were never removed, just restricted to Prior Moderation.

Glad to have you back with the promise of "mostly behaving",but you do have a HISTORY of not precisely living up to such promises, so you remain on Probation.  Your posts will be Moderated for a while to see how it goes.

As usual, all your posts will go up, just they may be moved to one of the restricted boards if they are incendiary.

Nothing nasty so far in there so if you keep up the good work, I can see lifting some restrictions in a month or so of good to topic posting.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Futilitist

  • Red Psycho
  • Bussing Staff
  • *
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2012, 02:49:19 AM »
I can see lifting some restrictions in a month

Cool man!  See ya in a month! ;)

Just kidding.  Good to be back.  I'll post where appropriate and necessary, and, of course with complete CFS!

---Futilitist


Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39130
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2012, 03:24:22 AM »
I can see lifting some restrictions in a month

Cool man!  See ya in a month! ;)

Just kidding.  Good to be back.  I'll post where appropriate and necessary, and, of course with complete CFS!

---Futilitist
The one month Timeline is not definitive.  If you post nothing for a month for instance, you gain no Points for being a Good Boy.  I have to see real REHAB over the course of the month with intelligent and to topic posting off your keyboard.  You gotta convince me that you can maintain a decent conversation with other Diners without going Ballistic on Futilism or whatever, or ATTACKING other Diners willy-nilly for not embracing Futilism.

Also recommended would be posting on a wide range of topics, rather than filling up a single topic with multiple posts clogging the last 100.

So far, so good.

Don't fuck with me F-Bomb. Your thoughts are welcome here, but not if they screw up the agenda here on the Diner to Save as Many as You Can.  I will marginalize you and shut you down.  Your best bet is to use the Diner to attract others to the Futilitist Blog where I cannot control what goes on. You can do that by arguing clearly and not appearing to be a psychopath.  On your own Blog, you can control the discussion as you see fit.  Here on the Diner, I am ADMIN.  POWER  OF GOD ON A FORUM.  Live with it.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Petty Tyrant

  • Cannot be Saved
  • Sous Chef
  • *
  • Posts: 4573
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2012, 04:03:22 AM »
Careful, use a pair of tongs to open mouth zipper or you could lose a finger.
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 39130
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2012, 04:17:44 AM »
Careful, use a pair of tongs to open mouth zipper or you could lose a finger.
FINGER? Losing a FINGER is chump change!  Get with the PROGRAM or lose you DICK or your HEAD!  LOL.

Were you Lurking in the F-Bomb days UB? Not to be trusted and requiring full force Admin Power to keep him in check.  I do not trust F-bomb at all.  He is the one and only person I EVER IMPRISONED.  He gotta show a lot of humility here in rehab to climb outta the hole he dug for himself.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline monsta666

  • Global Moderator
  • Sous Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 1390
    • View Profile
Re: Peak Oil Primer
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2012, 03:24:35 PM »
You should start a thread with a link to the primer, at that other place I've seen you recently.

Thanks for the complement. I do not think the thread would be well received on that Science Forum. Looking at the previous threads posting on that forum I am actually quite disappointed with the comments given there. It would seem the outward image they like to portray of being a forum with open minded intellectual posters is a bit false as a large number of users have quite fixed views and are unprepared for their opinions to be challenged. What is more many were strong corncopians citing typical lines of technology will save the day, human innovation is unlimited and man can overcome these problems if he actually tried.

I do not think an article on peak oil will change their minds. It is more likely they will point to fracking technology and say it will give us plenty of oil for the next decades which will be enough to make a nice transition. In fact I believe a poster has actually said as much even though they have been repeatedly presented with links to say this believe is wrong. If it is not fracking they will say the technological cavalry will save the day in some other way and they will TOTALLY fail to address the fundamental issue that infinite growth cannot go on forever and that technology does nothing to address this issue. I can understand that in your own way you want to save as many people as possible but people must want to be saved.

Farmers OTOH do not raise the same sort of revenue for govt spending addiction, also the farmers are individual citizens or not multinationals, although big companies have squeezed out most small time operators. Anyway it seems food and fuel follow some different rules.

A very good point. There is a good probability that you will be right and I am wrong but the one thing I do see and can't help but wonder is the fact that a society with high unemployment and low access to food will be highly unstable. If the government does not protect the interests of its citizens and only focuses on the bottom line it is likely they will be overthrown or face large scale civil unrest. By ignoring the needs of its populace it will threaten the very existence of government. The government will be forced to cater to its own masses even if such actions are ultimately suicidal. Appeasing the masses will allow the government to last a little longer. Well that is my take, I think things could be different particularly if the said state are puppet states to bigger nations.

For a primer, it strikes me as more complex than it needs to be. Light on history (both pro and con, which I am always a fan of), which it appears to try and trade for Econ101 with a correlation to oil far beyond what I think anyone can reasonably support. Sort of like this does, except this is much more succinct.


Ah the classic meme of correlation does not necessarily imply causation. I think common sense will say that oil unlike rock music does have a big impact in the economy. Oil is an energy source and the correlation between energy use and the economy is very high. If you think about it even a little this correlation makes sense because ALL economic activities require the use of energy. The more energy we have the more economic transactions can take place. Moreover oil is used as a basic input in many critical economic activities so to dismiss all these as trivial and unimportant would be silly.

To be perfectly honest I think a big reason why people like to dismiss the importance of oil/energy sources in the role of the economy is people like to believe all economic growth was the result of human ingenuity and not the simple access to lots of resources and cheap abundant energy. If you admit energy played a big role not only is it a dent to the ego but it makes us ask serious questions about the feasibility of future growth and whether we can even maintain current economic output in the long-term future. Such questions are highly troubling and uncomfortable so the temptation to believe in the limitless human ingenuity meme becomes high. It is a form of denial.

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
5 Replies
1479 Views
Last post November 29, 2012, 03:17:38 AM
by g
63 Replies
8687 Views
Last post January 07, 2013, 08:07:11 PM
by g
1 Replies
5726 Views
Last post August 07, 2013, 11:48:42 PM
by RE