AuthorTopic: The Jack Alpert Archive  (Read 2054 times)

Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2018, 05:23:33 PM »
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What's the margin of error for this kind of prediction?  2040-2075 sounds about right to me

I'm assuming you are talking about Peak Oil.  While the End Of Oil would be about 2040-2075, the oil corps can't withstand a decrease in oil production except by taking on debt, and no one will lend to corps that have no long-term future. So one day you will wake up and hear on the radio that Exxon and the rest have gone BK, the banks and funds that already lent to them have gone BK, and S&P says "Sorry, they weren't AAA after all."  This could be tomorrow.  Global Warming cannot be that quick.

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Our dilemma is what should we do about that, if anything.

Burn down Exxon's HQ and paint a slogan on the wall "Peak Oil is real". Every TV camera will put it on the news.
Or carry on amusing yourselves with trivia because "collapse is boring".

"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2018, 07:30:31 PM »
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What's the margin of error for this kind of prediction?  2040-2075 sounds about right to me

I'm assuming you are talking about Peak Oil.  While the End Of Oil would be about 2040-2075, the oil corps can't withstand a decrease in oil production except by taking on debt, and no one will lend to corps that have no long-term future. So one day you will wake up and hear on the radio that Exxon and the rest have gone BK, the banks and funds that already lent to them have gone BK, and S&P says "Sorry, they weren't AAA after all."  This could be tomorrow.  Global Warming cannot be that quick.

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Our dilemma is what should we do about that, if anything.

Burn down Exxon's HQ and paint a slogan on the wall "Peak Oil is real". Every TV camera will put it on the news.
Or carry on amusing yourselves with trivia because "collapse is boring".



I understand the way credit collapse works. But I also understand how bailouts and huge subsidies work. It won't be tomorrow, or even in two years. Maybe ten or twenty. The game of musical chairs has a while to play out yet.

Boring isn't really the right word. More like excruciating.

You have no basis to judge what I do or don't do to pass my time. You go tilt against the windmills if you think it's a good idea.

Trying to incite people to commit violent acts via an internet forum such as this could be construed as a terrorist act in the current circumstances. You might feel you're safe where you are, but you should consider your comments more carefully. The rest of us live in the heart of the empire.

At some point, the oceans will stop being the heat sink that keeps climate change from killing us, and after that, things will happen pretty fast, I expect. I don't think that is coming next week either, but it won't be too long, I don't think.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2018, 08:16:36 PM »
Burn down Exxon's HQ and paint a slogan on the wall "Peak Oil is real". Every TV camera will put it on the news.
Or carry on amusing yourselves with trivia because "collapse is boring".

How come you are not out there lighting matches?

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Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2018, 08:34:23 PM »
I can't fathom you lot.  There's no point in lighting matches here, but there is there in the US.  If you don't like my suggestions, argue for something better.

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Eddie: You have no basis to judge what I do or don't do to pass my time.

No basis? You choose to go on a doom site, then say financial collapse is ten or twenty years away, with no evidence, and continue playing at Diner TV Sit Com, and reviewing yachts you will never buy.  This is farce.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline RE

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2018, 08:39:19 PM »
This is farce.

I suggest you start your own non-farce Collapse Website on a Ruskie server rather than continuing to complain about us.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2018, 04:17:56 AM »
I can't fathom you lot.  There's no point in lighting matches here, but there is there in the US.  If you don't like my suggestions, argue for something better.

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Eddie: You have no basis to judge what I do or don't do to pass my time.

No basis? You choose to go on a doom site, then say financial collapse is ten or twenty years away, with no evidence, and continue playing at Diner TV Sit Com, and reviewing yachts you will never buy.  This is farce.

Did you come here thinking you could incite us to violence by remote control?  Or to criticize me for dreaming of a different life? Some people dream things into their existence and some people light fires to take things out of their existence. I am not a starter of fires, especially when it's senseless and self-destructive behavior that benefits no one. You aren't a starter of fires either. Just a pissed off old man.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2018, 05:36:26 AM »
I can't fathom you lot.  There's no point in lighting matches here, but there is there in the US.  If you don't like my suggestions, argue for something better.

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Eddie: You have no basis to judge what I do or don't do to pass my time.

No basis? You choose to go on a doom site, then say financial collapse is ten or twenty years away, with no evidence, and continue playing at Diner TV Sit Com, and reviewing yachts you will never buy.  This is farce.

Did you come here thinking you could incite us to violence by remote control?  Or to criticize me for dreaming of a different life? Some people dream things into their existence and some people light fires to take things out of their existence. I am not a starter of fires, especially when it's senseless and self-destructive behavior that benefits no one. You aren't a starter of fires either. Just a pissed off old man.

Nothing wrong with being a pised off old man, except when you tell other pissed off old men they should set banks on fire when you're not doing it yourself. lol.

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Offline Eddie

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2018, 06:24:50 AM »
Even joking about such things online is quite dangerous now, and it shouldn't be condoned on the Diner. Let the monkeywrenchers foment their particular brand of protest elsewhere. Using encryption, preferably. Not here.  I pay attention. That's the first time I ever heard someone advocate for violence here. If it happened before, it was before my time. I don't like it, because it's thoughtless and stupid.
 
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Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2018, 07:32:13 AM »
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Eddie: Let the monkeywrenchers foment their particular brand of protest elsewhere.

Oh yes, don't let us get involved in revolution.  They could put you in jail for that, and that would never do.  We want to carry on living comfortably with the Empire staying exactly the same for 20 years or more. We don't care about the rest of the world.

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Palloy:  If you don't like my suggestions, argue for something better.

I upgraded DD to be https:// , and nobody except me used it.  I created an encrypted mail system and offered it to you all and not one person took it up.  The only excuse offered was that "we have nothing to hide", because you always intended to do nothing, because you happy with the way things are and fuck everybody else in the world. 

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Eddie: Did you come here thinking you could incite us to violence by remote control?  Or to criticize me for dreaming of a different life?

Not by remote control, but by rational argument.  It's way past the point of being able to dream of a different life.  You've got imminent war coming up in Iran and Korea, as well as Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen. Honduras, Venezuela. China and Russia are ready to break away from the USD and stick to their own continent. Israel is champing at the bit to start a war.  And you ... want to dream of a different life.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2018, 08:20:08 AM »
None of us here has the power to change any of the bad things that are about to happen. All we can do is maybe prep a little and try to get ready to make a move if and when it becomes sensible to do it.

The window of opportunity has closed, I believe. Chaotic change is baked into the cake now. If we couldn't get a consensus to make the necessary changes in the 1970's when we were a lot closer than we are now, the likelihood of it happening now is vanishingly small.

If you want to play Lenin, head on over to reddit and preach revolution to the disenfranchised young people looking to break windows. Maybe they want to play internet games about revolution. I don't want this site shut down and RE and Surly and me to paint a target on our chests, while you broadcast from the jungle, Commandante Palloy.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2018, 12:29:35 PM »

Oh yes, don't let us get involved in revolution.  They could put you in jail for that, and that would never do.  We want to carry on living comfortably with the Empire staying exactly the same for 20 years or more. We don't care about the rest of the world.

PY, you are so full of shit your eyes are brown.  When was the last time you put on your Black Pajamas and mask and went out breaking bank windows?  You're just a pissed off old guy like the rest of us with the only difference you are sweating your balls off in the tropical rainforest battling Pythons looking to make a meal out of your chooks.  Besides that like me you battle your own health problems, but you don't even write any Revolutionary incediary blogs to rev up the masses.  Precisely how is it that you are so much better than the rest of us?

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I upgraded DD to be https:// , and nobody except me used it.  I created an encrypted mail system and offered it to you all and not one person took it up.  The only excuse offered was that "we have nothing to hide", because you always intended to do nothing, because you happy with the way things are and fuck everybody else in the world.

I hate to break it to you PY, but putting DD on https doesn't do jack shit to increase the security here.  SMF is so full of holes a reasonably bright 6th grade Gamer could hack into it.  The NSA can access via https just like we can, and nobody here is using the PM system for secure communications or financial transactions.  The Blog is meant for anyone at all to read, why does that need to be secure other than to try and keep out spammers, which is more a problem with holes in Wordpress which you quit on fixing.

If you don't want to start your own Revolutionary Blog on a Secure Ruskie Server like I suggested, Eddie's suggestion of starting your own Reddit Sub is an EZ alternative.  Call it r/Revolt_TODAY.  I have almost 1100 subscribers now to r/globalcollapse.  Let me know when you catch up.

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Offline Palloy2

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2018, 03:49:44 PM »
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PY, you are so full of shit your eyes are brown

Insults, from someone empty of shit.

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When was the last time you put on your Black Pajamas and mask and went out breaking bank windows?

Finger-pointing.  Does it make any difference in what I do to what YOU do?

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... you don't even write any Revolutionary incediary blogs to rev up the masses.

There are enough incendiary blogs around for the masses, and they don't appear to be working.  I am trying to rev up Diners, who ought to be the most revolutionary group around, but here you are saying you are bored with Doom and don't want to change your rotten government because you can't think of how.  I gave you a list of 10 things you could do to get started and was told by you to go away and do it somewhere else.

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Precisely how is it that you are so much better than the rest of us?

I never claimed that. It is all in your own mind how you view your own efforts. I'm just trying to be your conscience, pricking you because you claim it is all pointless/hopeless.  If I wasn't right, it wouldn't make you feel so uncomfortable.

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... nobody here is using the PM system for secure communications or financial transactions. 

The only NSA-proof encryption we have access to is GPG4USB. You were the only person to even set it up, and you lost your keys 3 times.
Obviously serious revolution planning needs a different set of tools from a public website.  If you trust ASO with the keys, then a group can communicate using email and Reply All. If you don't trust ASO (and why should you when they operate in the US and are subject to US law), you could run your own mail server.  But you are not interested because you spend all your time playing silly SitCom games.

Your post is so full of concentrated shit your eyes are brown.
"The State is a body of armed men."

Offline RE

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Re: The Jack Alpert Archive
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2018, 04:40:07 PM »

Finger-pointing.  Does it make any difference in what I do to what YOU do?

Newz Flash.  You started the Finger Pointing, and yes it makes a difference.  If you were out there manning the ramparts and burning banks I would have more respect for what you are writing here.  As it is, it is complete bullshit.

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I gave you a list of 10 things you could do to get started and was told by you to go away and do it somewhere else.

They are 10 things YOU can do.  Get started.  ::)

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Precisely how is it that you are so much better than the rest of us?
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If I wasn't right, it wouldn't make you feel so uncomfortable.

I am not the least bit uncomfortable.  YOU are the uncomfortable one inhabiting a blog & forum you consider a "farce".  I think it is a great place!  :icon_sunny:

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Obviously serious revolution planning needs a different set of tools from a public website.

No shit Sherlock, but YOU are the one interested in "Serious Revolution Planning", not me.  I chronicle Collapse, I don't have any pretense at being some kind of Revolutionary Che Guevara.  Go for it.  It's what YOU want to do.

RE
« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 05:04:04 PM by RE »
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Offline Surly1

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"They will have been cannibals and will live like seventeen century serfs..."
« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2018, 04:01:29 AM »
Let's open up this Pandora's box again. From r/collapse, starring our old friend, jack Alpert.

"If you kids survive the 2100īs, they will have been cannibals and will live like seventeen century serfs. No electricity, no running water, no schools, no medicine and life will be short, nasty and brutish!" (Jack Alpert)

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/DFuud1jCqQg" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/DFuud1jCqQg</a>

And here are some comments from the reddit thread:

No one's surviving, the extremely rich and powerful think going underground for awhile will save them. They're wrong. It's their kids that will die last, and they'll curse them while they do.

    [–]McCree11416 points 

    If they aren't ripped to shreds by an unstoppable angry human wave of people who've finally realized how fucked they really are first.

    [–]BeTheBlessing8 points 

    Not true at all. Would be true if the world just kept going merrily along until total, irrevocable environmental collapse causes a total population crash, but it won't.

    Strategic, controlled waves of population culls is what we'll see. Probably combinations of wars and plagues and deliberately reduced fertility rates.

    AI will improve to the point where robots and computers can provide the services we currently need full-on work forces to provide. Right now we rely on a sort of pyramid scheme to keep money and goods flowing, always "needing" larger subsequent generations. But once the need for that flow goes away then the most elite can get by just fine with a tiny servant class to keep the machines maintained.

    Reduce the human population by 6.5 billion slowly enough to take excess nuke plants offline, optimize infrastructure for the new paradigm, then just let enough time to pass for the world to restabilize.

    Yeah the oceans will be higher and weather patterns will be altered but things will stabilize again and the formerly ultra wealthy will be able to jet set around the world without any concern whatsoever for the throngs of unwashed masses.

    [–]ThunderPreachaNot your hopium pusherman26 points 

    You have seen too much Hollywood and have been miraculously lucky with never having any problem with one of your tech gizmos. All my high tech crashes and burns sooner or later and so will your tech fantasy.

    [–]BeTheBlessing1 point 

    Yeah. I guess if your laptop with planned-obsolescence built in as a feature (not a flaw) can't make it a few months without having to be turned off and then on again then nothing better will ever be built and we will never have to worry about the bulk of human labor being replaced by robots and AI. Thank goodness!

    [–]WorriedInflation1 point 

    It is arrogant to think you can predict complex stuff like that. Even if the masses are exterminated there will still be an awful lot of multi-millionaires to deal with. What will they do with them? There's not enough space for all these multi millionaires after collapse - they can't fit them all in these sealed bunkers.

    And you don't 'just shut down' these excess nuclear reactors. Decommissioning that stuff at a minimum level takes years and is incredibly expensive.

    As for the ultra wealthy I don't think they will be allowed to rule the world after the military dictatorship has been established. They use the military and the military uses them. Once they have outlived their usefulness they'll be disposed of by military dictators.

    [–]BeTheBlessing1 point 

    Yeah, maybe the people with all the money and all the armies and all the power will accept their fate with humility and grace in fellowship with all the rest of us.

    Decommissioning that stuff at a minimum level takes years and is incredibly expensive.

    Lol. Worth it when money means nothing and vying for one of the remaining spots among Earth's residents is on the menu. Remember: I said there will be successive waves of culls. No one said this is going to go down in a few months.

    At first few will realize culling is what's happening. But after a few waves it'll become clear and the top priority of the plebes with any kind of skills or important knowledge will cooperate in any way possible in an attempt to secure the favor of the elites in order to make it through the next cull.

    Arrogant to predict something like this?

    Arrogant to think anything otherwise once you realize the massive momentum of the factors at play.

    [–]WorriedInflation1 point 

    Are you a narcissist or maybe a billionaire who's got cold feet?

    Money for decommissioning reactors translates into huge man-hours and use of special equipment. money or no money you can't just decommission them. Those fuel rods will fry your robots or otherwise straight up melt down if you try to remove them carelessly.

    Don't believe me? They can't even get a robot into the reactor chamber of Fukushima. Couldn't from the very beginning. Radiation too high, even for the machines.

    So, it melted down and now radioactive material is just leaking in the soil surrounding Fukushima and it's expanding and that's in spite of all the techniques they tried to stop it.

    As for survival I don't think multi-millionaires will serve the billionaires when they know they can't get into these bunkers. More likely they will try to stage a coup against these billionaires so they can get into these bunkers themselves.

    A billionaire is really nothing compared to a military dictator with the power of the government. By your metrics we would expect the oligarchs to have completely controlled russia since the 90s. While they did for a short period they were quickly subjugated by Vladimir Putin who used the powers of FSB and government to take them out. Of course Putin himself became an oligarch through doing this and them let them do their things again because it would make it easier for Putin to enrich himself but that's not the point. The point is billionaires will lose to military dictators.

    [–]ArmedGuard0114 points 

    I will be dead. No one in my family has lived much beyond their early 80s.

    [–]Love_And_Light3351 points 

    Lol fuck that, in the year 2100 I'm gonna be the healthiest 110 year old there ever was with my own self-sustainable ecovillage. I'll have renewable energy and recycled electronics to give it some sort of greenpunk vibe. Doesn't matter if the world burns around me I'll be living it up.

    Edit: gimme about 15 years to have it set up, y'all are invited.

    [–]NICK16_06We will be gone18 points 

    Petty peasant, in 2100 I'll be a fully fledged android that will parade through Mars like if it was fucking South Beach.

    [–]Universal-Omnicide4 points 

    Futurologist hopium addicts actually believe this by the way.......

    [–]want-to-say-this13 points 

    This guy solved it.

    [–]ThunderPreachaNot your hopium pusherman11 points 

    That guy is delusional but probably as a coping mechanism.

    [–]want-to-say-this4 points 

    [–]marvelousmenagerie13 points 

    I think the energy and electronics is the easy part. Step 1, buy a ton of solar panels while they are still manufactured, keep backups in appropriate storage space and replace as needed. Step 2, build a physical energy storage setup like pumped water to replace chemical batteries that have a short lifespan. Supplement solar with some biogas and wind energy and boom, you're energy independent and resilient. Now you can power tools to do the light work of Maintaining electronics and infrastructure. You could easily setup something now that will be running in 100 years that way.

    But it's not so easy to setup a food system that is climate change proof AND collapse proof.

    Anything grown outdoors will be more at risk from extreme weather and pests of all sizes and biological forms due to climate change. It doesn't matter whether you plan to subsist solely on a permaculture food forest or an intensive "square foot" style garden or anything in between or 2 or 3 different systems. If a blight and other pests ruins 2/3 of your storage crops for a year and severe drought killed off the livestock (no well water to pump, that aquifer done been run dry, or atleast been drawn below your sippin' straw) you were planning on butchering for the winter, you are simply SOL. Your neighbors are very likely in the same boat so you can't trade locally for more calories and you're all gonna starve that winter. Maybe not to death if you're young and healthy, but probably to death if you're 110. And this is the future of agriculture. It's happening now and barring ongoing, major (i.e. Lab based, not breeding based) genetic modification that keeps up with environmental changes, things will get worse.

    On the flip side, anything grown inside will be dependent upon some level of industry for chemicals, grow lights or HVAC etc. It might be easy to repair some electronics, but poorly built motors are another story. Tracking down the fault in a motor winding is expert level stuff and the copper used today seems cheap and breaks easily. How long can someone keep a keep a greenhouse or warehouse growing setup going if they can't just order replacement pumps, motors, fans, relays, solenoids, controllers, etc. off of the internet? As the parts wear out, and they do quite regularly, the system will fail. And stocking pumps and motors is not like stocking solar panels. Panels are simple and generally last their full lifetime. Pumps and motors are complex and constantly looking for a reason to die. You don't know of one is going to last 10 years, 10 months, or 10 weeks when you wire it up. Hard to plan around that.

    I don't think it's impossible for a larger community to be more resilient, and maybe even engage in some light industry to manufacture the necessary things that are currently mostly built with planned obsolescence in mind on the other side of the planet. But this is not something that is possible for one person, or even one 100 person ecovillage to do.

    « Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 08:47:23 AM by Surly1 »
    "It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

     

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