AuthorTopic: The Catholic Vote In 2016  (Read 88 times)

Offline Eddie

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The Catholic Vote In 2016
« on: July 11, 2018, 07:02:53 PM »
White Catholics actually voted 56% for Trump and only 37% for Clinton, fwiw. The religious right has agreed to support Trump so they can get the SCOTUS stacked and...most of all, repeal abortion.

I really never considered that Evangelical churches would become dominated by a racist agenda. I'm having to think about the implications of that possibility. That's a very dark thing to me. Makes me think about voting with my feet.

I wonder what the Catholics who voted for Trump think about their Pope's politics?

Pollsters confused about Catholic voters
Apr 20, 2017
by Thomas Reese Politics
A sign in English and Spanish is seen as people wait to vote in 2012 outside a polling place in Kissimmee, Florida. (CNS photo/Scott A. Miller, Reuters)
Catholics appear to be politically confused; are they Democrats or Republicans? Since 1952, Catholics have voted for Democratic presidential candidates at least 10 times and for Republican candidates four times, with three elections too close to call, according to polling data collected by Mark Gray of the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA). See graph below. In almost every case, Catholics voted for the winner or at least the winner of the popular vote, depending on which poll you believe.

Pollsters are also confused about Catholic voters. Did Catholics vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Politically, this matters because Catholics make up about 22 percent of eligible voters and usually vote for the winner in presidential elections.

The 2016 media-sponsored exit polls, according to CNN, showed that a majority of Catholics voted for Trump (50 percent to 46 percent for Clinton), which led to much hand ringing by progressive Catholics.

Surprisingly, the Pew Research Center's analysis of the exit polls found that the Hispanic Catholic vote for Clinton (67 percent) was less than that given to President Barack Obama four years earlier (75 percent).

These results delighted conservative Catholics who hoped that Trump appointments to the Supreme Court would finally change American policy on abortion. They were also consistent with the fact that Catholics almost always vote for the winner in presidential elections.

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Now another poll, the American National Election Study (ANES), as tweeted by Mark Gray, has concluded that a plurality of Catholics voted for Clinton (48 percent to 45 percent). The ANES showed 74 percent of Hispanic Catholics voting for Clinton and only 19 percent voting for Trump. But 56 percent of white Catholics voted for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton.

In other words, in comparison with the exit poll, ANES shows fewer white Catholics voting for Trump and more Hispanics voting for Clinton. Latino Decisions, a polling firm that focuses on the U.S. Latino population, agrees that the exit poll underestimated the percent of Latinos voting for Clinton.

Most journalists don't care about the ANES results because they are released months after the election when the media has moved on. In addition, some of the media have a vested interest in the exit poll's credibility since they paid for it. But for academics, ANES is considered the gold standard of survey research. Academics complain that the media exit polls use people with little training or experience in conducting surveys.

After reviewing the exit polls, Gray told me a couple of weeks after the election that he was going to wait to see the results from ANES before deciding where the Catholic vote went. After looking at the ANES numbers, he is not sure we will ever know whether Catholics went for Trump or Clinton it is just too close to call.

His table also shows that Gallup, ANES, and the exit polls have frequently reported different numbers for the Catholic vote in presidential elections. In two years (1972 and 1984), the poll numbers for the Catholic vote differed by 9 and 7 percentage points, but only statisticians cared since the races were not close.

On the other hand, there was no consensus among the pollsters on which candidate won the Catholic vote in the elections of 1956, 1988, 2004 and 2016.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Surly1

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Re: The Catholic Vote In 2016
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2018, 10:03:18 PM »

I wonder what the Catholics who voted for Trump think about their Pope's politics? [/color]

Not surprisingly, Catholics are deeply divided about Papa Francesco and his policies.The RCC is a deeply conservative organization whose governance is based on the Roman Empire. Pope John XXIII tried to modernize the church with Vatican II, and counter-revolutionary Popes have been busily trying to restore the past ever since. Google the articles of Ross Douthat of the NYT to sample conservative Catholic thought. To say nothing of the wholesale disavowal of "liberation theology," which was the moral high water mark of the 20th century church.
Those practitioners have all been "terminated with extreme prejudice," in church terms.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound


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