AuthorTopic: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION  (Read 6146 times)

Offline Surly1

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Sea Level Rise Maps
« Reply #60 on: September 19, 2019, 04:04:58 AM »
Sea Level Rise Maps
Speculative maps showing the changes to our world from an 80m sea level rise. Effectively all ice on earth having melted. Created with a variety of climate science reference, digital elevation models, and Photoshop.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Rise

Vancouver Sea Level Rise

Vancouver Sea Level Rise

Bay Area Sea Level Rise

Bay Area Sea Level Rise

Toronto Sea Level Rise

Toronto Sea Level Rise

Europe Sea Level Rise

Europe Sea Level Rise

North America Sea Level Rise

North America Sea Level Rise

Asia Sea Level Rise

Asia Sea Level Rise

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline BuddyJ

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #61 on: September 19, 2019, 05:26:04 AM »
Great visuals. The top North American/northern hemisphere US change doesn't look like it matches the North America/US one at the bottom though. A whole bunch more appears to be gone in the top map.

Offline Surly1

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2019, 05:43:17 AM »
Great visuals. The top North American/northern hemisphere US change doesn't look like it matches the North America/US one at the bottom though. A whole bunch more appears to be gone in the top map.

You're right. I have no explanation; I just stumbled across the post.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline K-Dog

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #63 on: September 19, 2019, 07:56:27 AM »
Great visuals. The top North American/northern hemisphere US change doesn't look like it matches the North America/US one at the bottom though. A whole bunch more appears to be gone in the top map.

You're right. I have no explanation; I just stumbled across the post.

But the sociopathic American sez:

Two acres and a robot mule to the pioneers of Greenland and Antarctica.  Plenty of new land there won't be underwater.  The greening of the arctic is an opportunity to GROW baby GROW.



Ho ho, but enough weaponization of ignorance.  If anybody knows of some doom / save the planet you tube videos please suggest them to me.  I will be back at the end of the day to see if anybody has suggested anything. 

Every time my website loads a random selection is made from a list of Doom Tunes.  Today I have 6.  The one selected loads on my Bulletin board.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 08:02:15 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline Surly1

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #64 on: September 19, 2019, 09:06:10 AM »
But the sociopathic American sez:

Two acres and a robot mule to the pioneers of Greenland and Antarctica.  Plenty of new land there won't be underwater.  The greening of the arctic is an opportunity to GROW baby GROW.

Development, baby! Turning waste land into PROFIT! Plus all those climate refugees will be DESPERATE for somewhere to live! Opportunities galore!

// If anybody knows of some doom / save the planet you tube videos please suggest them to me.  I will be back at the end of the day to see if anybody has suggested anything. 


Here are a couple:

This is my all time favorite: Steve Cutts' "Man"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfGMYdalClU

Do moral duty or doom humanity by climate change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soZOiDGtLRY

This may one of the better: If you sense that the future looks bleak, that there is little chance that this whole mess will end in joy and good humor, that there is a tiny chance that we will escape a systemic collapse of the thermo-industrial civilization, you are not far from reality. In this video, based on the available data, we try to explain why we think the situation is inextricable and that a systemic collapse is now inevitable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

This one is close to home: Sperm count collapse could spell doom, experts warn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lulHXD-1tys

Did The Banks Just Tell Us A Massive Crash is Coming? Them Hartmann w/Richard Wolff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTPHWtZlqT0


"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline RE

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2019, 09:43:11 AM »
We'll all be dead long before you get 80m of sea level rise.

We should most of us be alive to see the monetary system crash though.  That will eliminate most of the homo saps living on the coast before the drown anyhow.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline cernunnos5

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2019, 07:44:58 PM »
Sea level isnt the problem. Super storms are.

I predicted we would get hit by a hurricane this year in NS. Damn obvious in my opinion.

Here is where I step up. I predict another one for next year.

Just putting it here for posterity.

In the mean time, this is a half an hour of seeing what a Category 5 actually looks like, being inside it. The finger of god.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4


Offline Surly1

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #67 on: September 20, 2019, 05:55:09 AM »
Sea level isnt the problem. Super storms are.

I predicted we would get hit by a hurricane this year in NS. Damn obvious in my opinion.

Here is where I step up. I predict another one for next year.

Just putting it here for posterity.

In the mean time, this is a half an hour of seeing what a Category 5 actually looks like, being inside it. The finger of god.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4

Glad you came through OK. Video is amazing.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline azozeo

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #68 on: September 20, 2019, 07:32:30 AM »
Sea level isnt the problem. Super storms are.

I predicted we would get hit by a hurricane this year in NS. Damn obvious in my opinion.

Here is where I step up. I predict another one for next year.

Just putting it here for posterity.

In the mean time, this is a half an hour of seeing what a Category 5 actually looks like, being inside it. The finger of god.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4

Spot on....


Front line winds will wipe the slate clean. SOON !

I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why youíre here. Youíre here because you know something. What you know you canít explain, but you feel it. Youíve felt it your entire life, that thereís something wrong with the world.
You donít know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Surly1

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #69 on: September 20, 2019, 07:47:33 AM »
Sea level isnt the problem. Super storms are.

I predicted we would get hit by a hurricane this year in NS. Damn obvious in my opinion.

Here is where I step up. I predict another one for next year.

Just putting it here for posterity.

In the mean time, this is a half an hour of seeing what a Category 5 actually looks like, being inside it. The finger of god.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4

Spot on....


Front line winds will wipe the slate clean. SOON !

Mother Earth will scour the fungus from her skin.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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The Ultimate Doom Post | Just kidding, it's worse than that
« Reply #70 on: September 20, 2019, 07:50:08 AM »
From r/collapse.

The Ultimate Doom Post | Just kidding, it's worse than that.

The Facts

► 50% of animals gone since 1970

► 99% of Rhinos gone since 1914.

► 97% of Tigers gone since 1914.

► 90% of Lions gone since 1993.

► 90% of Sea Turtles gone since 1980.

► 90% of Monarch Butterflies gone since 1995.

► 90% of Big Ocean Fish gone since 1950.

► 80% of Antarctic Krill gone since 1975.

► 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955.

► 60% of Forest Elephants gone since 1970.

► 50% of Great Barrier Reef gone since 1985.

► 50% of Human Sperm Counts gone since 1950.

► 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955.

► 50% of Forest Bird Species will be gone in 50 years.

► 40% of Giraffes gone since 2000.

► 40% of ocean phytoplankton gone since 1950.

... http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/phytoplankton-population/

► Ocean plankton declines of 1% per year means 50% gone in 70 years, declines of more than 1%/yr are likely.

► Ocean plastic is killing bacteria that make 10% of our oxygen.

► Ocean acidification doubles by 2050, explodes by 2100.

► 30% of Marine Birds gone since 1995.

► 70% of Marine Birds gone since 1950.

► 28% of Land Animals gone since 1970.

► 28% of All Marine Animals gone since 1970.

► If you are 15 years old, emissions went up 30% in your lifetime.

► If you are 30 years old, emissions went up 60% in your lifetime.

► After 30 years trying, solar and wind are < 3% of total world energy use.

► Solar panels produce 90% of power rating 15% of time

► Wind turbines produce 90% of power rating 25% of time.

► Claire Fyson said emissions must go down 50% in 10 yrs to avoid 1.5° C.

► The Insurance Journal said they must go down 50% in 10 yrs to avoid 3.0° C.

► Stefan Rahmstorf said emissions must go down 100% in 20 yrs to avoid 2.0° C.

► Hans Schellnhuber said 5 of 13 major hothouse tipping points start below 2.0° C.

► When these 5 points are triggered, they trigger the other 8.

► This results in runaway hothouse, which can't be stopped or reversed once started.

► But we are also headed for runaway mass extinction, which can't be stopped or reversed once started.

► 10,000 years ago humans and livestock were 0.03% of land vertebrate biomass.

► Today humans and livestock are 98% of land vertebrate biomass.

► Human/livestock food production caused 80% of land vertebrate species extinctions.

► Petrochemical use grows 7X faster than human population.

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline K-Dog

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Re: THE COMING END OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION
« Reply #71 on: September 20, 2019, 09:13:14 AM »
But the sociopathic American sez:

Two acres and a robot mule to the pioneers of Greenland and Antarctica.  Plenty of new land there won't be underwater.  The greening of the arctic is an opportunity to GROW baby GROW.

Development, baby! Turning waste land into PROFIT! Plus all those climate refugees will be DESPERATE for somewhere to live! Opportunities galore!

// If anybody knows of some doom / save the planet you tube videos please suggest them to me.  I will be back at the end of the day to see if anybody has suggested anything. 


Here are a couple:

This is my all time favorite: Steve Cutts' "Man"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfGMYdalClU

Do moral duty or doom humanity by climate change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soZOiDGtLRY

This may one of the better: If you sense that the future looks bleak, that there is little chance that this whole mess will end in joy and good humor, that there is a tiny chance that we will escape a systemic collapse of the thermo-industrial civilization, you are not far from reality. In this video, based on the available data, we try to explain why we think the situation is inextricable and that a systemic collapse is now inevitable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

This one is close to home: Sperm count collapse could spell doom, experts warn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lulHXD-1tys

Did The Banks Just Tell Us A Massive Crash is Coming? Them Hartmann w/Richard Wolff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTPHWtZlqT0

Thanks.  Right now my random JukeBox comes up playing music.  'Doom Stories' will need its own button.  I will add these vids to it when I work it in.  A 'Doom Stories' button and a music shuffle button added so a user does not have to reload the page to get a new selection.  I want to separate pure music out. 
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 09:36:29 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline Surly1

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Dave Lowe found measurable proof of climate change 50 years ago
« Reply #72 on: September 22, 2019, 06:14:09 AM »
Dave Lowe found measurable proof of climate change 50 years ago - he's watched in horror ever since
Joel MacManus
05:00, Sep 21 2019


Dave Lowe established the Baring Head air monitoring station, helped prove human-driven climate change and contributed to the winning of a Nobel Peace Prize. Along the way were countless arguments with climate change deniers, a lost marriage, and one significant regret. Joel MacManus met him.

There's a certificate on the wall of Dave Lowe's small cottage in Petone, Wellington.

It's tucked away in the back office, an A3 piece of paper in an ordinary wooden frame.


Dave Lowe has been involved in collecting atmospheric data in Wellington since before the term 'climate change' even existed.

It could easily be missed by a passing guest. But if they cared to take a second glance, three words would immediately jump out: Nobel Peace Prize.

It was by far the greatest honour of his career. He resigned almost immediately afterward, walking away on top of the scientific world.

The Prize is a testament to all that he has achieved in his career, but at the same time, to him, it's a haunting reminder of all the things he didn't, or couldn't, change.

Sitting at his kitchen table, reflecting on the prize, he goes a little glassy-eyed. He stares intently at nothing in particular. His voice drops an octave.

"I've lived this horror for 50 years," he says. "There's so little time left and we've just been so bloody stupid."

Dave Lowe was one of the first people on earth to find measurable proof that human activities were changing the atmosphere and warming the planet.

For the past 50 years, he has watched on, helpless and frustrated, as the situation around him has got worse, and worse, and worse.

A VOLCANO ABOVE THE CLOUDS

The long, sloping sides of Mauna Loa, seen from the summit of its sister mountain, Mauna Kea.
The long, sloping sides of Mauna Loa, seen from the summit of its sister mountain, Mauna Kea.

The world's largest volcano dominates the skyline of Hawaii's Big Island. The huge, sloping sides and gigantic crater of Mauna Loa cast an imposing shadow and send a constant warning across the Pacific paradise. 

The Ancient Hawaiians believed Mauna Loa was created by the volcano goddess Pele, who formed it at such an immense height so she could escape the wrath of her sister Nāmaka, the sea goddess. 

According to one legend, Pele is accompanied by a phantom white dog. When an eruption was soon to occur, she would send her dog down the mountain to warn the people of the impending disaster. 

A lava channel flows down the sides of Mauna Loa after the 1984 eruption.
A lava channel flows down the sides of Mauna Loa after the 1984 eruption.

In 1958, an American scientist named Charles David Keeling climbed Mauna Loa, and changed the world's understanding of our climate forever. 

Keeling had spent the better part of the 1950s perfecting a system of measuring exactly how much of which gases make up the Earth's atmosphere. 

By adapting gas analysers used in coal mines, he was able to take the first ever reliable reading of the amount of carbon dioxide in the air.

The barren mountainside on the edge of the Mauna Loa crater, high above the cloud layer and away from any interference, proved the perfect location to capture the swirling air currents. 

It was here, in two simple grey buildings set against a desolate, otherworldly landscape, that Keeling established the world's first permanent station to measure CO2 levels. 

The gas analyser splits a sample of air into one million parts, and counts how many of those are CO2. 

Geologists escape Manua Loa aboard a rescue helicopter during the 1984 eruption.
Geologists escape Manua Loa aboard a rescue helicopter during the 1984 eruption.

The first measurement Keeling took read 313 parts per million. 

Then, as he continued to take regular readings, he saw something no-one had ever seen before. The planet was breathing.

In autumn, as the leaves died off the trees, the amount of CO2 in the air would rise. Then in spring, as the plants grew again,the number would fall again. In and out, like lungs exhaling. 

Then, when a full year had gone by and the cycle was complete, he checked the number again. It never returned to 313. 

The Mauna Loa Baseline Atmospheric Observatory, where Keeling set up his first continuous measurement.
SUPPLIED
The Mauna Loa Baseline Atmospheric Observatory, where Keeling set up his first continuous measurement.

Now, it sat at 314 ppm. He had just uncovered the first piece of evidence that the total amount of CO2 in the air was increasing. 

That matters because CO2 has an insulating effect in the atmosphere. It traps heat, which is why it's called a greenhouse gas. More CO2 means more heat. 

Every year without fail, for the last 61 years, the number has continued to climb at an ever-increasing rate. 

The chart which tracks the rising CO2, that drumbeat on the march to climate breakdown, is called the Keeling Curve. 

Some would say that the legends of Mauna Loa are true. Pele's white dog has become Keeling's gas analyzer, high in the mountains among the ancient volcanic rock, sending out a warning signal to tell the people of the coming disaster.

Charles David Keeling received the National Medal of Science from then-US President George W Bush in 2002.
Charles David Keeling received the National Medal of Science from then-US President George W Bush in 2002.

A WORLDWIDE SEARCH

While Keeling was tracking the first evidence of climate change on a Hawaiian volcano, Dave Lowe was a teenage high school dropout in Taranaki, with only one thing on this mind: surfing. 

The sport was in its infancy in New Zealand, primitive wooden longboards were the only equipment available. But Lowe was hooked. 

"There was just a small bunch of us, really weird characters, and I was just fascinated with it," he says.

Dave Lowe, left, as a teenage surfboarder in Taranaki in the mid-1960s.
Dave Lowe, left, as a teenage surfboarder in Taranaki in the mid-1960s.

"You go out there and man, do you get a feeling for the environment. I saw the atmosphere directly, going down into the ocean, mixing the sounds, the smells."

Sitting on his board, staring out at the mist and the ocean spray dancing against the pink hues of the setting sun, he decided he needed to understand more about the world around him. He went back to school and earned a Physics honours degree from Victoria University of Wellington. 

Lowe and Keeling's paths would cross for the first time in 1970. 

By this time, Keeling was a giant in his field. But he wasn't satisfied with his research station at Mauna Loa. One measurement at one specific location wasn't enough evidence. He wanted a global record, in both hemispheres, so he could confirm what he was seeing, and track it for future decades. 

Lowe was a 23-year-old graduate at the former Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, recruited to join Keeling's team as they set up the world's second continuous record of atmospheric CO2.

They found a spot about 30 minutes out of Wellington city, near Makara Beach, at the World War II-era gun emplacements of Fort Opau.

The first failed attempts to record atmospheric Co2 in New Zealand were made at Fort Opau, a gun emplacement built in 1941 to protect the Wellington harbour.
The first failed attempts to record atmospheric Co2 in New Zealand were made at Fort Opau, a gun emplacement built in 1941 to protect the Wellington harbour.

After six months training in California, Lowe returned to join the small American team of one scientist and two technicians. 

But pretty soon he found himself with far more responsibility than he expected. 

"The scientist would constantly just bugger off back to San Diego for six months at a time. And the technicians, well ... They were being paid to have the holiday of their lives, they were always off hunting and fishing, not to speak of the marijuana.

"I was thrown in the deep end trying to run hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gear on a really important project which is being funded millions by the National Science Foundation." 

But that work was for nothing. The readings at Makara were erratic, showing wild swings and no discernable pattern. They were useless. 

There was about a kilometre of paddocks between the sea and the analyzer, which was sucking up too much CO2 and throwing off the readings. 

Keeling told him he needed to develop a new portable gas analyzer and find a new location, undisturbed by vegetation or outside sources. 

After some searching, Lowe found the spot he was looking for at Baring Head, a peninsula an hour out of Wellington in the opposite direction, at the base of the Remutaka Forest Park. 

The Baring Head lighthouse and research station in 1972. Air samples were taken at the top of the flagpole and atmospheric CO2 concentration was measured by an infra red analyser in the building.
DAVE LOWE
The Baring Head lighthouse and research station in 1972. Air samples were taken at the top of the flagpole and atmospheric CO2 concentration was measured by an infra red analyser in the building.

It was perfect. At the right time, Baring Head gets air currents directly from Antarctica, an incredible undisturbed run through hundreds of kilometres of the Southern Ocean.

"What we got was incredible. Right from the outset you could see that we had struck gold."

The first they learned was that Baring Head always measured a few ppm behind Mauna Loa. The majority of emissions are produced in the northern hemisphere, this showed that it took time for those gases to spread to the south. 

They also found that Baring Head didn't show the same huge seasonal swings as the Mauna Loa readings. The huge continents of vegetation in the northern hemisphere were impacting the Hawaiian readings, but the measurements in the South Pacific, surrounded by ocean, were far more stable.

But the most important thing was that the measurements at Baring Head proved that Mauna Loa wasn't an anomaly. In both the south and the north, the carbon in the atmosphere was slowly rising. 

Dave Lowe taking an air flask sample at the edge of the Baring Head cliff in 1972.
Dave Lowe taking an air flask sample at the edge of the Baring Head cliff in 1972.

James Renwick is a professor of geology at Victoria University, who was also a contributor to the 2007 Nobel Prize and received last year's Prime Minister's Science Prize. 

He says Lowe is "a bit of a legend in NZ atmospheric science", and his contributions to the global record of climate change were invaluable. 

"At the time I suspect it wasn't appreciated just how important the Baring Head Station was, but now the climate science community really values the long time series from Baring Head.

"That's very significant," he says. "They are a part of a global network of observing sites that have taught us many things. Dave Lowe has been a real pioneer in atmospheric science in NZ, especially around measurement of greenhouse gases and in understanding the chemistry of the atmosphere and how that's changing."

THE GRIND 

Finding himself in charge of a groundbreaking research with barely any experience, Lowe put everything on his own shoulders. 

Together with his friend and colleague Peter Gunther, they were basically running the entire southern arm of the operation alone, and they were fully aware of how important their work was. 

Dave Lowe in 1973 at the DSIR Institute of Nuclear Sciences laboratories in Gracefield, Lower Hutt.
Dave Lowe in 1973 at the DSIR Institute of Nuclear Sciences laboratories in Gracefield, Lower Hutt.

That meant constant flights between Wellington and California, reading every background paper that had ever been written on the subject, developing all the computer programs to drive the calculations. 

The DSIR lab, where he was working, had one computer, an IBM 650 with paper tape inputs and magnetic tape. 

"We worked our butts off," he says. "I knew that I just had to do this. I threw everything I had into it"

But that intensity had its consequences. Eventually, something had to give. 

American scientist Peter Gunther, who worked with Lowe at Baring Head throughout the 70s.
American scientist Peter Gunther, who worked with Lowe at Baring Head throughout the 70s.

The single-minded drive Lowe had dedicated to his pursuit of science cost him his marriage. 

"I just kept on going as my marriage crashed. I was a real mess. A hell of a mess. I was working too hard, and completely blown apart emotionally.

"The guy I was working for took a look at me and said 'Dave, you're no good to me at all in your condition'."

PROOF OR PERSUASION

In 1975, Lowe took a sabbatical to recover from his professional and personal blowout. He attended the first ever scientific conference of greenhouse gas experts. He reckons he's probably the only person at the meeting who is still alive. 

The small group knew what was coming before anyone else in the world. 

They had proven that mankind was changing the chemical makeup of the air, and they knew the inevitable outcome of that. 

The terms 'Global Warming' and 'Climate Change' hadn't been invented yet, but that's exactly what they were seeing. 

In the following years, Lowe moved to Germany to study further, and met his now-wife Irena. They've been married for 40 years. 

Quick guide

How have global temperatures changed?

+
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He specialised in isotopic techniques, which he describes as like DNA tracing for gas particles. 

Not all the CO2 in the atmosphere is from the burning of fossil fuels. For most of human history, the CO2 level has naturally fluctuated between 200 and 300ppm, which we know thanks to air samples trapped in glacier ice cores.

Those natural fluctuations are often cited by climate deniers to suggest that climate change is not man-made. 

Naturally occurring carbon is made up of different isotopes. The most common types are called Carbon-12 and Carbon-13. 

Carbon-12 is by far the most common type found in nature. Carbon-13 makes up about 1 per cent of the total.

But the exact amount can differ. There is slightly less Carbon-13 in fossil fuels like coal and oil compared to in atmospheric carbon.

The sun setting behind the Baring Head. Atmospheric carbon measurements are still taken there to this day.
NICHOLAS BOYACK/STUFF
The sun setting behind the Baring Head. Atmospheric carbon measurements are still taken there to this day.

Lowe and other international researchers found that while total CO2 in the air was increasing, the percentage of Carbon-13 isotopes compared to Carbon-12 was decreasing. 

That proved that the additional CO2 in the atmosphere was coming from the burning of fossil fuels by humans, not anything else. 

"That's the smoking gun. You can get every sceptic blue in the face but that's just open and shut evidence that this extra CO2 came from humans," he says. 

"Unequivocal, no doubt."

That was proof, settled science. But the battle to convince the public of his findings was only just beginning.

AARON WOOD/STUFF
Why exactly are "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes" needed to combat climate change? Here are the facts.

Part of the problem was that the predicted temperature rise didn't show up for several years. 

While CO2 was rising, the mercury was jumping up and down, with no consistency. But eventually, the signal separated from the noise and the heat started to climb. Once it did, it basically never stopped. 

In hindsight, the conservative approach of the scientific community probably held progress back for a number of years, he says.

"As a scientists, we thought, 'No, you don't jump up and down and scream, we're not activists.' Losing our credibility was the big issue.

"It was a totally different time. If only I knew then what I know now ... Now it's different, many of us are out there doing stuff. We have to, this is an emergency."

Full-blown arguments with climate change deniers have been a common occurrence in Lowe's life. His voice bristles with frustration when the topic comes up. 

"It's better now, but it was hard yards. I'd be yelled at by people. It used to be constant shouting matches with sceptics.

"[Scientists] deal in data and facts and graphs and numbers, it's really hard to get through with that. In my lifetime I've given hundreds of climate change talks and you're always up against it with this distrust."

Nothing grinds his gears more than scientists in the 1980s and 1990s who deliberately spread mistruths about climate change while on the payrolls of oil companies, like Fred Singer and others profiled in the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt

"I just think … the bastard, how dare he not look at the facts. That makes me angry, people who deliberately go out and falsify what's going on." 

Dave Lowe has retired and now lives in Petone. He's still active in the climate science community and lives a low-emissions lifestyle.
ROSS GIBLIN
Dave Lowe has retired and now lives in Petone. He's still active in the climate science community and lives a low-emissions lifestyle.

After resigning, Lowe started his own small family business, consulting and doing climate change education. 

After his children left home, he and Irena moved into their small cottage, which they meticulously designed to have the smallest possible carbon footprint. 

He's still actively involved in climate science, making submissions on bills and helping with various research work. He's working on a book about his life work. 

Every day as he sits down to write, that Nobel Peace Prize certificate hangs behind him. 

"I just wish ... all of us wish, that we could have changed minds," he says. 

"But how do you fight an oil company?" 

The first ever CO2 reading at Baring Head was 326 Parts Per Million. The most recent reading was 409 Parts Per Million.

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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Facing unbearable heat, Qatar has begun to air-condition the outdoors
« Reply #73 on: October 18, 2019, 04:53:26 AM »
For some reason, this story really struck me to drive home the point that we are well and truly fucked as humanity. Faced with catastrophic climate change, our response is to air condition the stadiums. Because money. And we know better, but just don't care.

Facing unbearable heat, Qatar has begun to air-condition the outdoors


DOHA, Qatar — It was 116 degrees Fahrenheit in the shade outside the new Al Janoub soccer stadium, and the air felt to air-conditioning expert Saud Ghani as if God had pointed “a giant hair dryer” at Qatar.

Yet inside the open-air stadium, a cool breeze was blowing. Beneath each of the 40,000 seats, small grates adorned with Arabic-style patterns were pushing out cool air at ankle level. And since cool air sinks, waves of it rolled gently down to the grassy playing field. Vents the size of soccer balls fed more cold air onto the field.

Ghani, an engineering professor at Qatar University, designed the system at Al Janoub, one of eight stadiums that the tiny but fabulously rich Qatar must get in shape for the 2022 World Cup. His breakthrough realization was that he had to cool only people, not the upper reaches of the stadium — a graceful structure designed by the famed Zaha Hadid Architects and inspired by traditional boats known as dhows.

“I don’t need to cool the birds,” Ghani said.

Qatar, the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, may be able to cool its stadiums, but it cannot cool the entire country. Fears that the hundreds of thousands of soccer fans might wilt or even die while shuttling between stadiums and metros and hotels in the unforgiving summer heat prompted the decision to delay the World Cup by five months. It is now scheduled for November, during Qatar's milder winter.

The change in the World Cup date is a symptom of a larger problem — climate change.

Already one of the hottest places on Earth, Qatar has seen average temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the current international goal for limiting the damage of global warming. The 2015 Paris climate summit said it would be better to keep temperatures "well below" that, ideally to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Over the past three decades, temperature increases in Qatar have been accelerating. That’s because of the uneven nature of climate change as well as the surge in construction that drives local climate conditions around Doha, the capital. The temperatures are also rising because Qatar, slightly smaller than Connecticut, juts out from Saudi Arabia into the rapidly warming waters of the Persian Gulf.

In a July 2010 heat wave, the temperature hit an all-time high of 50.4 degrees Celsius.

“Qatar is one of the fastest warming areas of the world, at least outside of the Arctic,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate data scientist at Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit temperature analysis group. “Changes there can help give us a sense of what the rest of the world can expect if we do not take action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.”

While climate change inflicts suffering in the world’s poorest places from Somalia to Syria, from Guatemala to Bangladesh, in rich places such as the United States, Europe and Qatar global warming poses an engineering problem, not an existential one. And it can be addressed, at least temporarily, with gobs of money and a little technology.

To survive the summer heat, Qatar not only air-conditions its soccer stadiums, but also the outdoors — in markets, along sidewalks, even at outdoor malls so people can window shop with a cool breeze. “If you turn off air conditioners, it will be unbearable. You cannot function effectively,” says Yousef al-Horr, founder of the Gulf Organization for Research and Development.

Al Janoub stadium is one of eight soccer stadiums that Qatar is prepping for the 2022 World Cup.

Engineering professor Saud Ghani designed the open-air stadium’s air-conditioning system.

Small vents push cool air at ankle level inside the stadium.

Yet outdoor air conditioning is part of a vicious cycle. Carbon emissions create global warming, which creates the desire for air conditioning, which creates the need for burning fuels that emit more carbon dioxide. In Qatar, total cooling capacity is expected to nearly double from 2016 to 2030, according to the International District Cooling & Heating Conference.

And it’s going to get hotter.

By the time average global warming hits 2 degrees Celsius, Qatar’s temperatures would soar, said Mohammed Ayoub, senior research director at the Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute. In rapidly growing urban areas throughout the Middle East, some predict cities could become uninhabitable.

“We’re talking about 4 to 6 degrees Celsius increase in an area that already experiences high temperatures,” Ayoub said. “So, what we’re looking at more is a question of how does this impact the health and productivity of the population.”

The danger is acute in Qatar because of the Persian Gulf humidity. The human body cools off when its sweat evaporates. But when humidity is very high, evaporation slows or stops. “If it’s hot and humid and the relative humidity is close to 100 percent, you can die from the heat you produce yourself,” said Jos Lelieveld, an atmospheric chemist at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany who is an expert on Middle East climate.

That became abundantly clear in late September, as Doha hosted the 2019 World Athletics Championships. It moved the start time for the women’s marathon to midnight Sept. 28. Water stations handed out sponges dipped in ice-cold water. First-aid responders outnumbered the contestants. But temperatures hovered around 90 degrees Fahrenheit and 28 of the 68 starters failed to finish, some taken off in wheelchairs.

Workers are particularly at risk. A German television report alleged hundreds of deaths among foreign workers in Qatar in recent years, prompting new limits on outdoor work. A July article in the journal Cardiology said that 200 of 571 fatal cardiac problems among Nepalese migrants working there were caused by “severe heat stress” and could have been avoided.

The U.S. Air Force calls very hot days “black flag days” and limits exposure of troops stationed at al-Udeid Air Base. Personnel conducting patrols or aircraft maintenance work for 20 minutes, then rest for 40 minutes and drink two bottles of water an hour. People doing heavy work in the fire department or aircraft repair may work for only 10 minutes at a time, followed by 50 minutes of rest, according to a spokesman for the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing.

In early July, Qatar’s Civil Defense Command warned against doing outdoor work between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., putting gas cylinders in the sun, turning on water heaters, completely filling fuel tanks or car tires, or needlessly running the air conditioner. It urged people to drink plenty of fluids — and to beware of snakes and scorpions.

‘Expect Amazing’

For now, managing climate change in a place like Qatar, whose slogan for the World Cup is “Expect Amazing,” is primarily a matter of money.

And Qatar has plenty. Its sovereign wealth fund is worth about $320 billion. A few of its stakes include Harrods department store, London’s gigantic Canary Wharf, the Paris Saint-Germain soccer club, the CityCenterDC office and residential development and a 10 percent stake in the Empire State Building.

Qatar has used its riches to great effect at home, where 11 winners of the prestigious Pritzker Architecture Prize have built striking high-rises and stadiums. The result is a strange combination of avant-garde architecture, oil wealth, Islamic conservatism, shopping malls and climate change that Qatari American artist Sophia al-Maria has dubbed “Gulf Futurism.”

“With the coming global environmental collapse, to live completely indoors is like, the only way we’ll be able to survive. The Gulf’s a prophecy of what’s to come,” she said in an interview in Dazed Digital, an online magazine covering fashion and culture.

So far, Qatar has maintained outdoor life through a vast expansion of outdoor air conditioning. In the restored Souq Waqif market, a maze of shops, restaurants and small hotels, three- to four-foot-high air-conditioning units blow cool air onto cafe customers. At a cost of $80 to $250 each depending on the quality, they are the only things that make outdoor dining possible in a place where overnight low temperatures in summer rarely dip below 90 degrees.

Recently, the luxury French department store Galeries Lafayette opened in a shopping mall that features stylish air-conditioning grates in the broad cobblestone walkways outside. Each of the vents, about 1 by 6 feet, has a decorative design. Many of them hug the outside of buildings, cooling off window shoppers looking at expensive fashions. Though nearly deserted in the heat, by 5 p.m. some people begin to emerge to sit outside places like Cafe Pouchkine.

One recent afternoon as the temperature eased to 110 degrees Fahrenheit, Aida Adi Baziac, an interior designer, was sharing iced lattes with a friend. They had just finished work and were perched over a cooling grate at an outdoor table at Joe’s Cafe.

“I would say it’s wasteful,” Adi Baziac said. “I know how it impacts the environment negatively.”

But it allows them to enjoy the outdoors in the summer, she added. “We can sit outside in an air-conditioned, controlled area, and we sit and mix and mingle.”

Even Qatar’s small band of climate activists sympathize. Asked about the outdoor air conditioners, Neeshad Shafi, executive director of Arab Youth Climate Movement Qatar, said, “That’s about survival. It’s too hot. That’s the reality.”


See the rest of the article, plus more photographs and interactive graphics here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/climate-change-qatar-air-conditioning-outdoors/?utm_source=reddit.com&wpisrc=nl_powerup&wpmm=1
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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This is How a Society Dies
« Reply #74 on: December 13, 2019, 06:05:38 AM »
This is How a Society Dies
America and Britain are Textbook Examples of a New, Gruesome Phenomeon: Rich Nations Self-Destructing Into Poor Failed States




When I ask my European friends to describe us — Americans, Brits, who I’ll call Anglo-Americans in this essay — they shake their heads gently. And over and over, three themes emerge. They say we’re a little thoughtless. They say we’re selfish and arrogant. And they say that we’re cruel and brutal.

I can’t help but think there’s more than a grain of truth. That they’re being kind. Anglo-American society is now the world’s preeminent example of willful self-destruction. It’s jaw-dropping folly and stupidity is breathtaking to the rest of the world.

The hard truth is this. America and Britain aren’t just collapsing by the day…they aren’t even just choosing to collapse by the day. They’re entering a death spiral, from which there’s probably no return. Yes, really. Simple economics dictate that, just like they did for the Soviet Union — and I’ll come to them.

And yet what’s even weirder and more grotesque than that is that…wel…nobody much seems to have noticed. There’s a deafening silence from pundits and elites and columnists and politicians on the joint self-destruction of the Anglo-American world. Nobody seems to have noticed: the only two rich societies in the world with falling life expectancies, incomes, savings, happiness, trust — every single social indicator you can imagine — are America and Britain. It’s not one of history’s most improbable coincidences that America and Britain are collapsing in eerily similar ways, at precisely the same time. It’s a relationship. What connects the dots?

Let me pause to note that my European friends’ first criticism — that we’re thoughtless — is therefore accurate. We’re not even capable of noticing — much less understanding — our twin collapse. Our entire thinking and leadership class seems not to have even noticed, like idiots grinning and dancing, setting their own house on fire. They are simply going on pretending it isn’t happening — that the English speaking world isn’t fast becoming something very much like the new Soviet Union.

So what caused this joint collapse? How did the English speaking world end up like the new Soviet Union? To understand that point, consider the fact that you yourself probably think that’s an overstatement. But it’s an empirical reality. The Soviet Union stagnated for thirty years. America’s stagnated for fifty, and Britain for twenty. The Soviet Union couldn’t provide basics for its citizens — hence the famous breadlines. In America, people beg each other for money to pay for insulin and antibiotics, decent food is unavailable in vast swathes of the country, and retirement and paying off one’s debt are impossibilities: just like in the Soviet Union, basics are becoming both unavailable and unaffordable. What happens? People…die.

(The same is true in Britain. In both societies, upwards of 20% of children live in poverty, the middle class has imploded, and upward mobility has all but vanished. These are Soviet statistics — lethally real ones.)

Politics, too, has become a sclerotic Soviet affair. Anglo-American societies aren’t really democracies in any sensible meaning of the word anymore. They’re run by and for a class of elites, who could care less, literally, whether the average person lives or dies. In America, that class is a bizarre coterie of Ivy Leaguers pretending to be aw-shucks-good-ole-boys on the one side, like Ted Cruz, and Ivy Leaguers pretending to be do-gooders on the other, like Zuck and Silicon Valley. In Britain, it’s the notorious public school boys, the Etonians and Oxbridge set.

That brings me to arrogance. What’s astonishing about our elites is how…arrogant they are…and how ignorant they are…at precisely the same time. Finland just elected a 34 year old woman as a Prime Minister from the Social Democrats. Finland is a society that outperforms ours in every way — every way — imaginable. Finnish happiness is way, way higher — and so is life expectancy, mobility, savings, real incomes, trust, among others. And yet instead of learning a thing from a miracle like that, our elites profess to know a better way…while they’ve run our societies into the ground. What the? Hubris would be an understatement. I don’t think the English language has a word for this weird, fatal combination of arrogance amidst ignorance. Maybe cocksure stupidity comes close.

And yet our elites have succeeded in one vital task — what an Emile Durkheim might have called “social reproduction.” They’ve managed to reproduce society in their image. What does the average Anglo-American aspire to be, do, have? To be rich, powerful, careless, selfish, and dumb, now, mostly. We don’t, as societies or cultures, value learning or knowledge or magnanimity or great and noble things, anymore. We shower millions on reality TV stars and billions on “investment bankers.” The average person has become a tiny microcosm of the aspirations and norms of elites — they’re not curious, empathetic, decent, humane, noble, kind, in pursuit of wisdom, truth, beauty, meaning, purpose. We’ve become cruel, indecent, obscene, comically shallow, and astonishingly foolish people.

That’s not some kind of jeremiad. It’s an objective, easily observed truth.Who else in a rich society denies their neighbours healthcare and retirement? Nobody. Who else denies their own kids education? Nobody. Who else denies themselves childcare and elderly care? Nobody. Who else doesn’t want safety nets, opportunities, mobility, protection, savings, higher incomes? Nobody. Literally nobody on planet earth wants worse lives excepts us. We’re the only people on earth who thwart our own social progress, over and over again — and cheer about it.

How did we become these people? How did we become tiny microcosms of our arrogant, ignorant, breathtakingly stupid elites? Because we are perpetually battling for self-preservation. Life has become a kind of brutal combat to the death. For jobs, for healthcare, for money, for the tiniest shreds of resources necessary to live. We wake up and fight one another for these things, over and over again. That is what our lives amount to now — gladiatorial combat. Meanwhile, elites and billionaires sit back and enjoy not just the spectacle — but the winnings.

People who are battling for self-preservation can’t take care of anyone else. If I ask the average Brit or American to consider paying for their society’s healthcare, education, elderly care, childcare, increasingly, the answer is: LOL. In America, it always has been. Why is that? The reason couldn’t be simpler. People can’t even take care of themselves and their own. How can they take care of anyone else — let alone everyone else?

The average person is living right at the edge. Not at the edge of the middle class dream and an even better one. But at the edge of poverty and destitution. They struggle to pay basic bills and never make ends meet. They can’t afford to educate their children, and retire, or retire and have healthcare, and so on. Let me say it again: the average person can’t take care of themselves and their own — so how can they take care of anyone else, let alone everyone else?

A more technical, formal way to say that is: our societies have now become too poor to afford public goods and social systems. But public goods and social systems are what make a modern, rich society. What’s a society without decent healthcare, schools, universities, libraries, education, parks, transport, media — available to all, without life-crippling “debt”? It’s not a modern society at all. But more and more, it’s not America or Britain, either.

What makes European societies — which are far, far more successful than ours — successful is that people are not battling for self-preservation, and so they are able to cooperate to better one another instead. At least not nearly so much and so lethally as we are. They are assured of survival. They therefore have resources to share with others. They don’t have to battle for the very things we take away from each other — because they simply give them to one another. That has kept them richer than us, too. The average American now lives in effective poverty — unable to afford healthcare, housing, and basic bills. They must choose. The European doesn’t have to, precisely because they invested in one another — and those investment made them richer than us.

We are caught in a death spiral now. A vicious cycle from which there is probably no escape. The average person is too poor to fund the very things — the only things — which can offer him a better life: healthcare, education, childcare, healthcare, and so on. The average person is too poor to fund public goods and social systems. The average person is too poor now to able to give anything to anyone else, to invest anything in anyone else. He lives and dies in debt to begin with — so what does he have left over to give back, put back, invest?

A more technical, formal way to put all that is this. Europeans distributed their social surplus more fairly than we did. They didn’t give all the winnings to idiot billionaires like Zucks and con men like Trump. They kept middle and working classes better off than us. As a result, those middle and working classes were able to invest in expansive public goods and social systems. Those things — good healthcare, education, transport, media — kept life improving for everyone. That virtuous circle of investing a fairly distributed social surplus created a true economic miracle over just one human lifetime: Europe rose from the ashes of war to enjoy history’s highest living standards, ever, period.

That’s changing in Europe, to be sure. But that is because Europe is becoming Americanized, Anglicized. It has a generation of leaders foolish enough to follow our lead — now remember the greatest lesson of European history, which is one of the greatest lessons of history, full stop. That lesson goes like this.

  1. People who are made to live right at the edge must battle each other for self-preservation. But such people have nothing left to give one another. And that way, a society enters a death spiral of poverty — like ours have.
  2. People who can’t make ends meet can’t even invest in themselves — let alone anyone else. Such a society has to eat through whatever public goods and social systems it has, just to survive. It never develops or expands new ones.
  3. The result is that a whole society grows poorer and poorer. Unable to invest in themselves or one another, people’s only real way out is to fight each other for self-preservation, by taking away their neighbor’s rights, privileges, and opportunities — instead of being able to give any new ones to anyone. Why give everyone healthcare and education when you can’t even afford your own? How are you supposed to?
  4. Society melts down into a spiral of extremism and fascism, as ever increasing poverty brings hate, violence, fear, and rage with it. Trust erodes, democracy corrodes, social bonds are torn apart, and the only norms left are Darwinian-fascist ones: the strong survive, and the weak must perish.

(Let me spend a second or two on that last point. As they become poorer, people begin to distrust each other — and then hate each other. Why wouldn’t they? After all, the grim reality is that they actually are fighting each other for existence, for the basic resources of life, like medicine, money, and food.

As distrust becomes hate, people who have nothing to give anyways end up having no reason to even hope to give anything back to anyone else. Why give anything to those people you are fighting, every single day, for the most meagre resources necessary to live? Why give the very people who denied you healthcare and education anything? Isn’t the only real point of life to show that you beat them by having a bigger house, faster car, prettier wife or husband?)

That is how a society dies. That is the death spiral of a rich society. In technical terms, it goes like this. A social surplus isn’t distributed equitably. That leaves the average person too poor to invest anything back in society. He’s just battling for self-preservation, and the stakes are life or death. But that battle itself only breeds even more poverty. Because without investment, nurturance, nourishment — nothing can grow. Having become poor, the average person only grows poorer — because he will never have decent public goods or social systems, let alone the rights and privileges and jobs and careers and trajectories they become and lead to.

A society of people so poor they have nothing left over to invest in one another is dying. It goes from prosperity to poverty, from optimism to pessimism, from cohesion to distrust and hate, from peace to violence — at light speed, in the space of a generation. That’s America and Britain’s story today, just as it was the Soviet Union’s, yesterday, and Weimar Germany’s, before that.

You can see how a society dies — with horrific, brutal clarity — in the self-destruction of America and Britain. The hate-filled vitriol of Trumpism, the barely-hidden hate of Brexit. Why wouldn’t people who have grown suddenly poor hate everyone else? Why wouldn’t they blame anyone and everyone they can — from Mexicans to Muslims to Europeans — for their own decline? The truth, as always, is harder. America and Britain’s collapse is nobody’s fault — nobody’s — but their own.

They are in a death spiral now, but no opponent or adversary brought them there. It was their own fault, and yet they still go on choosing it. They don’t know any other way now. Their elites succeeded at making the average person truly, fervently believe that battling perpetually for self-preservation was the only way a society could exist.

And though it’s too late to escape for them, let us hope that the rest of the world, from Europe to Asia to Africa, learns the lesson of the sad, gruesome, stupid, astonishing tragedy of self-inflicted collapse.

Umair
December 2019

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

 

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