AuthorTopic: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)  (Read 9436 times)

Offline Surly1

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #105 on: November 02, 2018, 06:26:58 AM »
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Newbies to doom think 'the problems' can be fixed if we all come together.

And to whom exactly on this thread does the straw man "newbies to doom" apply?

I took it to mean a reference to everyone in the world Surly, not directed at just the Diner population.

Of course we all read and interpret postings differently but in this case I feel strongly you are far adrift from the intended audience.

Found myself thinking quite a bit about this posting, it caused me much thought and quite frankly it depressed the hell out of me.

Quite often I ask myself, "What's the Use",  many people just don't give a shit, as K-Dog correctly points out, and the world obviously needs a joint effort with everyone participating.    :dontknow:

You could be right. I assumed Kd was referencing diners, because whothehell else reads this stuff?

I just read a post by Eddie in which he lists a number of false memes popular among noobs, I agree.
If any validation is needed, a visit to r/collapse will confirm. There are a lot of people spinning up to speed on their futures, or more.
Apropos of that subject, r/collapse is exploding in membership, and has crossed 80,000 subs. this form the same forum:

80,000 subscribers! The pace of growth is accelerating. New People where did you come from? What brought you here? Why did you subscribe? Tell us about yourself.
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/9sx6h2/80000_subscribers_the_pace_of_growth_is/
The stories of what attracted people to the sub are quite varied.

Someone graphed their growth:

Note this is just for 2018.
“The old world is dying, and the New World struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

Offline g

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2018, 06:29:08 AM »

Eddie I would like to just disagree about one item you listed in your false meme list, the one about emigrating to another country.

Many folks have considered it and thought it a worthwhile idea for various reasons, including myself at times. Some we know of like Nicole Foss, as only one example, have seemed to find solace in New Zealand, as far as I last head anyway.

Without belaboring the point it appears to me to misplaced with the other memes with which we both are in agreement. 


Offline g

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #107 on: November 02, 2018, 06:58:47 AM »
I believe in collapse. But I also believe collapse is not a single event. It is a multifactoral, long, drawn out process that can be successfully denied or ignored until something happens to you personally that changes your life. Most people will never be aware of it.

That's a very good observation. Everyone will experience a personal collapse (or a few) during their lifetimes, regardless of what is happening in the broader society. If the broader society is undergoing collapse as well, i.e. a financial collapse in this case, it will magnify the experience of a personal collapse. This is why people need to become resilient no matter what they believe about the future.

On the other hand, given the rapid technological developments in society, especially in communication networks, there is also the possibility that ONE person's decisions to take on maximal responsibility for themselves, their family and their community could ripple out into society and have vastly outsized effects. The odds get even better with a few people or a few groups of people making such decisions. I believe this is where you can find some optimism, GO, and perhaps an answer to the question of "what's the use?"

It's a fool's game IMO to try and predict any of this stuff with anything approximating certainty, though. The individual level of analysis is the only one that makes sense to me anymore. For example, I have been following debates about the dangers/benefits of Artificial Intelligence systems. You have people like Elon Musk who really believe the dangers are immense and not far off, and then you have people like this guy Lex Fridman who are not so sure:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww</a>

It's a fascinating discussion to me, but in the end I'm not sure anyone can predict what will happen with these AI systems with any useful degree of certainty.

Hi Ashvin, I didn't mean to sound so dour.

My thoughts were with my fifteen year old grand daughter who came home this week with her hair dyed green and my daughter, her mother, in tears. They have as much interest in doom and the environment as I do in running the Boston Marathon this year with my cane.

Won't go into much detail about my four boy grand kids one of them a video game champion with titles at 13 years of age, they would get anyone depressed if they were looking for kids aware of doom possibilities or the environment.  ;D

Not that I was any different, was too busy earning a living to ponder much about such things. My view is that these ideas come to a  majority of us later in life, when we have time to think about them seriously and not just flippantly when youngsters with so much else on our minds.

Whatever, K-Dog's posting made me reflect on such thoughts and how very few people care about many of the topics that Diner's dwell or reflect upon daily.   

Offline Ashvin

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #108 on: November 02, 2018, 07:49:34 AM »
So I started reading the comments on that r/collapse thread, and I got to this one:

Quote
I hoped for the same or some sort of space colony. But I have just started wondering whether consciousness is a good thing. It's mostly torture, with some moments of joy. The universe maybe shouldn't be conscious of the horrible shit that goes on in it. Actually it wouldn't be horrible if there were no consciousness.

Maybe it was a total fluke and it's better that it goes away. Some might say that life is meaningless without it, but it's meaningless in the long run anyway.

This is scary on so many different levels. One is that the idea that consciousness is "mostly torture" is not that far off from the truth. This is the existential dilemma that many great philosophers have thought about and all major religions identify with - "life is suffering". So what to do about that or make of it?

One conclusion to draw is that of the above poster. Total nihilism - rejecting all meaning in the present by reference to unreasonably long time frames - "in a million or billion years none of this will matter". And I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that once a person gets there, they are uncomfortably close to either suicide or something akin to this:

"I will sooner die than betray my own thoughts, but before I leave this worthless place, I will kill whoever I deem unfit..."
"You know what I hate? .....MANKIND!!!!...kill everything...kill everything..."

-Columbine shooter

What is the antidote to this? Religious narratives. They are the only ones with enough meaning and import to confront the existential dilemma and provide an adequate, reliable and consistent answer. They provide an answer that WORKS. The ones that work really well are the ones that develop an ethos of personal responsibility - responsibility for one's own participation in the pain/suffering/malevolence of life, and responsibility for one's own moral obligation to do something about it.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 07:51:47 AM by Ashvin »

Offline Ashvin

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #109 on: November 02, 2018, 08:25:21 AM »
Hi Ashvin, I didn't mean to sound so dour.

My thoughts were with my fifteen year old grand daughter who came home this week with her hair dyed green and my daughter, her mother, in tears. They have as much interest in doom and the environment as I do in running the Boston Marathon this year with my cane.

Won't go into much detail about my four boy grand kids one of them a video game champion with titles at 13 years of age, they would get anyone depressed if they were looking for kids aware of doom possibilities or the environment.  ;D

Not that I was any different, was too busy earning a living to ponder much about such things. My view is that these ideas come to a  majority of us later in life, when we have time to think about them seriously and not just flippantly when youngsters with so much else on our minds.

I understand, but then you have to ask yourself - how much good would come of your grandchildren having more "interest in doom and the environment"? I mean, having awareness of things going on around you is great, even critical at some point, but "interest" could be a whole different story, depending on what kind of interests they have already. Also depending on a whole bunch of other factors, like their personalities and social environments. I don't think we want impressionable kids high in trait neuroticism, for ex, developing a significant interest in "doom".

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #110 on: November 02, 2018, 09:03:15 AM »
Quote
author=Golden Oxen link=topic=11448.msg164041#msg164041 date=1541165348]

Eddie I would like to just disagree about one item you listed in your false meme list, the one about emigrating to another country.

Many folks have considered it and thought it a worthwhile idea for various reasons, including myself at times. Some we know of like Nicole Foss, as only one example, have seemed to find solace in New Zealand, as far as I last head anyway.

Without belaboring the point it appears to me to misplaced with the other memes with which we both are in agreement.

I like Canada, but to me it only makes sense for young people who don't have a lot to lose by making the jump, or maybe somebody at retirement age.  If you're in the middle of life, it'll cost you tremendously to cash out here and cover the move, get a new career, etc. Everyone has a different set of circumstances, of course.

My wife has been to NZ and she loved it. The country and the people.

But New Zealand is a tough one unless you have real means, and I don't think it's nearly as perfect as most people who spend the money to make it happen believe. But there are worse places.

I don't like Chile and Argentina. Too many poor people who have been told the land belongs to them, even though it's belonged to rich people for the last 300 years. Mexico? Nope. Not me.

« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 09:14:41 AM by Eddie »
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Offline K-Dog

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #111 on: November 02, 2018, 09:13:01 AM »
Happy to see I kicked up some reasonable discussion.

I did mean newbie in the 'global sense' and my reason to bring newbies up was to tie in Jordan's Peterson message to collapse.  As Eddies says Peterson is popular with young men and his focus is on individual responsibility in ones own life, but that message is also a message that would lead to social changes that mitigate collapse.

I say Peterson is a Diner an does not even know it.  The collapse Peterson's fears is a social collapse.  He may not know methane frozen up in the Arctic is vaporizing and will warm the planet up so tens of millions of Americans will be unemployed for decades from the consequent troubles but he has the right message.  He has our answer but not our question.

Guy McPherson advocates just pouring a bottle of steak sauce over your head since we are all going to cook anyway and giving up.  Kunstler whines and Orlov wants your money so 'he' can survive collapse. 

I say get responsible.  I will echo Peterson.  Do something about the future and as Peterson says start with your own room.  I am, and having more than one room to clean I am pretty busy these days.  As that room gets clean you get strong.  As that room gets clean your strength might even take issue with other Diners who compare Peterson to the Koch brothers and nazis without any more reason than the person accusing having a deranged mind.
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline K-Dog

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #112 on: November 02, 2018, 09:22:10 AM »
I believe in collapse. But I also believe collapse is not a single event. It is a multifactoral, long, drawn out process that can be successfully denied or ignored until something happens to you personally that changes your life. Most people will never be aware of it.

That's a very good observation. Everyone will experience a personal collapse (or a few) during their lifetimes, regardless of what is happening in the broader society. If the broader society is undergoing collapse as well, i.e. a financial collapse in this case, it will magnify the experience of a personal collapse. This is why people need to become resilient no matter what they believe about the future.

On the other hand, given the rapid technological developments in society, especially in communication networks, there is also the possibility that ONE person's decisions to take on maximal responsibility for themselves, their family and their community could ripple out into society and have vastly outsized effects. The odds get even better with a few people or a few groups of people making such decisions. I believe this is where you can find some optimism, GO, and perhaps an answer to the question of "what's the use?"

It's a fool's game IMO to try and predict any of this stuff with anything approximating certainty, though. The individual level of analysis is the only one that makes sense to me anymore. For example, I have been following debates about the dangers/benefits of Artificial Intelligence systems. You have people like Elon Musk who really believe the dangers are immense and not far off, and then you have people like this guy Lex Fridman who are not so sure:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww</a>

It's a fascinating discussion to me, but in the end I'm not sure anyone can predict what will happen with these AI systems with any useful degree of certainty.

I have to bounce out and get to work so I can't watch the video now.  That is the trouble with video, time.  I want to check this Lex character out and see if he is a mathematically challenged techno-narcissist.  He's got a suit so he probably is.  If he is one, then he is worthless and takes up space better used for air.  I googled him quick.

Later

Eddies list is great.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 09:26:46 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #113 on: November 02, 2018, 09:26:48 AM »
Quote
Newbies to doom think 'the problems' can be fixed if we all come together.

And to whom exactly on this thread does the straw man "newbies to doom" apply?

I took it to mean a reference to everyone in the world Surly, not directed at just the Diner population.

Of course we all read and interpret postings differently but in this case I feel strongly you are far adrift from the intended audience.

Found myself thinking quite a bit about this posting, it caused me much thought and quite frankly it depressed the hell out of me.

Quite often I ask myself, "What's the Use",  many people just don't give a shit, as K-Dog correctly points out, and the world obviously needs a joint effort with everyone participating.    :dontknow:

You could be right. I assumed Kd was referencing diners, because whothehell else reads this stuff?

I just read a post by Eddie in which he lists a number of false memes popular among noobs, I agree.
If any validation is needed, a visit to r/collapse will confirm. There are a lot of people spinning up to speed on their futures, or more.
Apropos of that subject, r/collapse is exploding in membership, and has crossed 80,000 subs. this form the same forum:

80,000 subscribers! The pace of growth is accelerating. New People where did you come from? What brought you here? Why did you subscribe? Tell us about yourself.
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/9sx6h2/80000_subscribers_the_pace_of_growth_is/
The stories of what attracted people to the sub are quite varied.

Someone graphed their growth:

Note this is just for 2018.

Wow. They should come over here.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Ashvin

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2018, 10:03:18 AM »
I have to bounce out and get to work so I can't watch the video now.  That is the trouble with video, time.  I want to check this Lex character out and see if he is a mathematically challenged techno-narcissist.  He's got a suit so he probably is.  If he is one, then he is worthless and takes up space better used for air.  I googled him quick.

Later

Eddies list is great.

I'd suggest skipping the first 30 min or so when they talk about martial arts mostly. I thought he made interesting points when discussing AI systems re: self-driving vehicles and how slowly they are developing towards anything resembling full automation that is practical and safe. In fact the problem of unpredictable pedestrians and bicyclists may prove to be insurmountable for quite some time.

Offline cernunnos5

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2018, 07:51:56 PM »
Oh, Good. The yelling has stopped.

Back to the news

Offline RE

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2018, 08:22:25 PM »
Oh, Good. The yelling has stopped.

Back to the news

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Offline K-Dog

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #117 on: November 03, 2018, 02:31:29 AM »
I have to bounce out and get to work so I can't watch the video now.  That is the trouble with video, time.  I want to check this Lex character out and see if he is a mathematically challenged techno-narcissist.  He's got a suit so he probably is.  If he is one, then he is worthless and takes up space better used for air.  I googled him quick.

Later

Eddies list is great.

I'd suggest skipping the first 30 min or so when they talk about martial arts mostly. I thought he made interesting points when discussing AI systems re: self-driving vehicles and how slowly they are developing towards anything resembling full automation that is practical and safe. In fact the problem of unpredictable pedestrians and bicyclists may prove to be insurmountable for quite some time.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww?ecver=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/j5FOumrXyww?ecver=1</a>

This is good, but AI would be able to watch the whole thing in a minute.  LOL.  I'm writing this halfway through the video.

Lex has it right,  Musk has it wrong.  Most people have it wrong because they were scared by the Terminator.

 

The suit Lex wears is to honor Richard Feynman, very cool.

I once built a simple neural network to decode Morse code.  It learned fast to get 80% right.  Getting to 95 % right took quite a bit of training.  I had a random code generator train it.  The Morse code generated was of deliberate poor quality.  I randomly tweaked the time intervals between state changes to make it sloppy.  Getting to 98% was very very hard.  I used about twenty neurons in three levels and back-propagation trained the network.  I still have the back-propagation C code around here somewhere.  I did this decades ago.

I was able to get the distinction between narrow and global AI discussed in the video very easily. 

As the distinctions needed to solve problems become more subtle the computations needed to solve them grow exponentially. A neural net becomes bigger in a linear sense but training without insight of any such net will require orders of magnitude more effort to simply double raw capability.  Insight may require consciousness is argued to prune computational tree geometric growth.  I actually don't think so.  Creativity with goal orientation without consciousness can be simulated, but to do so requires a geometric growth in training to simulate and evaluate ever more subtle alternate choice universes among an ever growing subtlety and complexity of neural interconnections.  Either way complexity will grow faster than any intelligence produced; thus complexity constrains how fast intelligence can grow.

Mother nature has been trying to get intelligence right on earth for over two billion years and she still has not got it down.  To think bits in memory can rearrange themselves with their nanosecond nimbleness using a holy grail unknown algorithm, doing what Mother Nature has failed to do in over two billion years is, bat shit crazy!


To be fair Mother Nature has only been trying for about 600 million years.  Multi-cellular life being a prerequisite.  A couple of billion years was needed to build the infrastructure for intelligence before experiments could even begin.  Experiments still go on.

All our times have come
Here but now they're gone
Seasons don't fear the reaper
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain, we can be like they are
Come on baby, don't fear the reaper


And don't fear the singularity.  So don't fear the singularity.  It can't happen the math is all wrong.  Magic would be required.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/uhRjyLLUdhw?ecver=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/uhRjyLLUdhw?ecver=1</a>
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 02:52:00 AM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline AJ

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #118 on: November 03, 2018, 05:31:28 AM »
  Experiments still go on.

Why are we all here at the Diner?? Maybe because we have figured out that Mother Nature's experiment in us was a failure. We failed because of lack of sufficient intelligence to change our long term trajectory (can't stop people from breeding and living in their excrement :(). On one level Mother Nature succeeded because we do respond well to immediate challenges - hence we lived long enough to over breed. Singularity is a pipe dream just like a fusion reactor or space travel.
AJ
Nullis in Verba

Offline Ashvin

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Re: The Intellectual Dark Web (IDW)
« Reply #119 on: November 03, 2018, 08:35:33 AM »
To be fair Mother Nature has only been trying for about 600 million years.  Multi-cellular life being a prerequisite.  A couple of billion years was needed to build the infrastructure for intelligence before experiments could even begin.  Experiments still go on.

What are your thoughts on robotics which involve embodied intelligence, i.e. the robots are programmed with relatively simple codes to perform movements similar to humans and by moving around in the world they actually gain a type of intelligence that cannot come any other way? I'm fascinated by that idea. Also the idea that, if there is actually something to such an embodied intelligence, robots which can communicate any insights from learned patterns of behavior almost instantaneously to millions of other robots, so on and so forth, would essentially evolve over the course of days, hours and minutes.

This idea also intrigued me because it seems the most intelligent animals are the ones which can manipulate their surrounding environments and solve complex problems this way. Dolphins may be intelligent, but the type of intelligence is likely very different from that of an octopus, chimpanzee or a human. I'm not sure if there is anything to that, but it seems somewhat plausible to my lay mind.

 

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