AuthorTopic: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash  (Read 353 times)

Offline Eddie

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Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« on: August 27, 2018, 04:32:15 PM »
Nothing new for Jim Sinclair to be saying this stuff, he's been saying it since 2008 (or maybe before). But the interesting part is that his current analysis, which says we're finally on the cusp of a waterfall event, makes a certain amount of sense, given rising interest rates, a rising dollar, and tens of trillions in unpayable debt. And a real trade war appears to imminent.

I do not agree that the dollar necessarily is going to to die. In the Great Depression the dollar remained strong, goods went dirt cheap, but nobody had any money. It is NOT a good time to be heavily leveraged.

Almost all long term investors carry some leverage, because leverage helps them make money when times are good. But leverage cuts both ways. When prices for assets fall and cash flow falls at the same time, leverage can wipe you out. I am not heavily leveraged, but I would like to reduce my own leverage some more.

Gold is pretty cheap. It might drop a bit more, but I doubt we'll see much more downside, other than perhaps VERY briefly during a stock market crash. And the big money guys aren't holding NEARLY as much gold (leveraged or not) as they were in 2008, because gold has been stalled out for some time and they've divested. That means they won't be selling gold to meet their Tesla margin calls.



<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/vM-PcocIDB0&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/vM-PcocIDB0&fs=1</a>
« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 04:40:29 PM by Eddie »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2018, 05:16:24 PM »


If the line in the chart above drops below zero, with the 2-year yield higher than the 10-year yield, the yield curve has “inverted.” In the past, this condition was followed by recessions.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/26/yield-curve-flatten-inversion-us-treasury-germany-japan-china/
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Offline RE

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2018, 07:08:34 PM »
Crash-Calling gave a bad name to Doomers & Kollapsniks.  Far too much of this went on in the aftermath of 2008, and I am one of the Guilty Ones in this regard.

It is a total No-Win Game to Crash-Call.  First off, you are almost never right, certainly not in a time frame that allows you to use this knowledge helpfully for yourself.  I remember telling my sister back in 2008 to get all our inheritance money out of the bank and the CDs mom had it packaged up in and go to CASH.  She never did this of course, and guess what?  I look like an idiot because although not much in the way of interest has accrued, they are still worth what their face value says they are and they are reasonably fungible & liquid, though not as much as CASH which I like better especially considering the ridiculously low interest rate on CD.

We will of course get a crash here of some magnitude at some point, but calling this is just a matter of luck.  Somebody will get lucky of course, and then write Newzletters about how he called the crash of 2020, which all the Gold Bugs will buy along with ranches in Argentina with Doug Casey.

RE
« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 07:11:15 PM by RE »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2018, 08:34:37 AM »
They can get better info here for free.

Too bad people would rather waste money on Doug Casey and Stansberry "Research" (maybe Stansberry Spam was taken?) or  Bill Bonner and Agoraphobic Capital...... or Motley Fool.....or some other fools, of which there are many with their hands out.

Buy tangible assets.

Buy some metals, but only physical. Store it as safely as you can.

Make investments that flow cash.

Keep enough cash to cover a temporary shortfall at all times.

Don't use excessive leverage at any time, and use less when the Fed is tightening.

Pay your fuckin' taxes on time.

It ain't rocket science.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2018, 09:07:59 AM »
I sure like platinum, but it behaves badly in a recession. Interesting chart. You can learn from this chart.



I'd guess if there's a stock market crash, platinum, being an industrial metal, will be likely to REALLY tank. It's cheap already, but look what happened in 2008.

I'd guess that a platinum crash would be a fine buying opportunity. I have read a number of articles talking about the big money buying platinum already, betting on a reversion to the mean.. I'd say that's got a lot of risk, as of now. I like gold better at the moment, and silver too. But I'd be happy to lay on a few oz's of platinum at today's price of $796. Decent price, but likely to go cheaper in time.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Surly1

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2018, 10:12:33 AM »
They can get better info here for free.

Too bad people would rather waste money on Doug Casey and Stansberry "Research" (maybe Stansberry Spam was taken?) or  Bill Bonner and Agoraphobic Capital...... or Motley Fool.....or some other fools, of which there are many with their hands out.

Buy tangible assets.

Buy some metals, but only physical. Store it as safely as you can.

Make investments that flow cash.

Keep enough cash to cover a temporary shortfall at all times.

Don't use excessive leverage at any time, and use less when the Fed is tightening.

Pay your fuckin' taxes on time.

It ain't rocket science.


Geez, Eddie. Short and sweet. And true.

You ought to turn these into financial haiku.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Eddie

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Re: Jim Sinclair Is Calling a Crash
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2018, 11:19:38 AM »
Make a good plan.

Stick with the plan.

If you need to, tweak the plan, but don't change direction unless it's obvious what you're doing isn't working. Very few people get rich quick, but it's very possible to get rich slowly. Most people never stay the course with any plan long enough to find out.

If an investment sounds too good to be true, it probably is. (See bitcoin)

Never swing for the fences. Investment is about getting lots of singles and a few doubles if you're lucky.

Buy stocks when blood is running in the streets, and even then, don't bet the farm on stocks. Publicly traded companies are set up that way on purpose to enrich the majority stockholders and the board and the company officers, not you. You're not a little fish, you're really just chum....and everyone else is a shark.

Insurance is boring, but nice to have when you need it. There are many forms of insurance, and State Farm doesn't sell most of them.

Assets feed you, liabilities eat you. (thanks Robert K.) If it doesn't feed you, it likely isn't much of an asset.

Your house, for instance, is not an asset, until the day you sell it, unless you're renting rooms.

A farm is not an asset unless it flows cash or puts food on your table.

A second home is not much of an asset unless you rent it for cash flow.

Gold is not much of an asset unless the fiat currency fails. The currency might fail, that's true. So hold some for insurance. But you can't eat gold and it does not flow a penny of cash.

Things you buy expecting them to appreciate in dollar value, might....but they also might not. But cash flow will buy your dinner every night for the rest of your life.

Find mentors and listen to their hard-earned wisdom. Be a mentor to someone less experienced, if you can. A real mentor does not require you to pay him/her for the service. Those people are not mentors. Don't sign up for Trump University or any of the other dozens of investment education scams. It is okay to use good financial advisers, but finding them is very difficult, and most of them have their own agenda.

Constantly examine your plan and your strategies in light of new developments and changing conditions. Be flexible, but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. People do that, all the time. Be patient enough to let your plan work. Okay, I'm repeating myself now, but it's worth repeating.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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