AuthorTopic: The Environment Board  (Read 70522 times)

Offline John of Wallan

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The extreme rate of global warming: IPCC Oversights o
« Reply #345 on: February 12, 2021, 10:58:40 PM »
While othere are wipping themselves into a frenzy over partisan politics, the elephant in the room continues to roam...
Never seem to be able to find good environmental news any more. Better ramp up my tree planting again.


JOW

Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2021
The extreme rate of global warming: IPCC Oversights of future climate trends
by Andrew Glikson

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and comprehensive summaries of the peer-reviewed literature raise questions regarding the assumptions inherent in computer modelling of future climate changes, including the supposed linearity of future global temperature trends (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from various lines of evidence. IPCC

Computer modelling does not necessarily capture the sensitivity, complexity and feedbacks of the atmosphere-ocean-land system as observed from paleoclimate studies. Underlying published IPCC computer models appears to be an assumption of mostly gradual or linear responses of the atmosphere to compositional variations. This overlooks self-amplifying effects and transient reversals associated with melting of the ice sheets.

Leading paleoclimate scientists have issued warnings regarding the high sensitivity of the atmosphere in response to extreme forcing, such as near-doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations: According to Wallace Broecker, “The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self-stabilizing, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges, and humans have already given the climate a substantial nudge”. As stated by James Zachos, “The Paleocene hot spell should serve as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of climate”.

Holocene examples are abrupt stadial cooling events which followed peak warming episodes which trigger a flow of large volumes of ice melt water into the oceans, inducing stadial events. Stadial events can occur within very short time, as are the Younger dryas stadial (12.9-11.7 kyr) (Steffensen et al. 2008) (Figure 2) and the 8.2 kyr Laurentian cooling episode,

Despite the high rates of warming such stadial cooling intervals do not appear to be shown in IPCC models (Figure 1).


Figure 2. The younger dryas stadial cooling (Steffensen et al., 2008). Note the abrupt freeze and thaw boundaries of ~3 years and ~1 year.

Comparisons with paleoclimate warming rates follow: The CO₂ rise interval for the K-T impact is estimated to range from instantaneous to a few 10³ years or a few 10⁴ years (Beerling et al, 2002) (Figure 3A). An approximate CO₂ growth range of ~1.3 ppm/year applies to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (Figure 3B) and 0.12 ppm/year to the Last Glacial Termination (LGT) during 17-11 kyr ago (Figure 3C). Thus the current warming rate is a factor of 2 to 3 higher than that of the Late Glacial Termination (LGT: 17-11 kyr) and 20-30 times faster than the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55 million years ago.

Therefore the term “climate change” for the extreme warming reaching +1.5°C over the continents and more than +3°C over the Arctic over a period of less than 100 years, requires reconsideration.

However, comparisons between the PETM and current global warming may be misleading since, by distinction from the current existence of large ice sheets on Earth, no ice was present about 55 million years ago.


Figure 3. (A) Reconstructed atmospheric CO₂ variations during the Late Cretaceous–early Tertiary, based on -
Stomata indices of fossil leaf cuticles calibrated using inverse regression and stomatal ratios (Beerling et al. 2002);
(B) Simulated atmospheric CO₂ at and after the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary (after Zeebe et al., 2009);
(C) Global CO₂ and temperature during the last glacial termination (After Shakun et al., 2012) (LGM - Last Glacial Maximum; OD – Older dryas; BA - Bølling–Alerød; YD - Younger dryas)

Observed climate complexities leading to the disturbance of linear temperature variations include:
The weakening of climate zone boundaries, such as the circum-Arctic jet stream, allowing cold air and water masses to shift from polar to mid-latitude zones and tropical air masses to penetrate polar zones (Figure 4), induce collisions between air masses of contrasted temperatures and storminess, with major effects on continental margins and island chains.

Amplifying feedbacks, including release of carbon from warming oceans due to reduced CO₂ solubility and therefore reduced intake from the atmosphere, release of methane from permafrost and from marine sediments, desiccated vegetation and extensive bush fires release of CO₂.

The flow of cold ice melt water into the oceans from melting ice sheets—Greenland (Rahmstorf et al., 2015) and Antarctica (Bonselaer et al., 2018)—ensuing in stadial cooling effects, such as the Younger dryas and following peak interglacial phases during the last 800,000 years (Cortese et al., 2007; Glikson, 2019).

Figure 4. Weakening and undulation of the jet stream, shifts of climate zones and penetration of air masses across the weakened climate boundary. NOAA.

In the shorter term such international targets as “zero emissions by 2050” apparently do not include the export of petroleum, coal and gas, thus allowing nations to circumvent domestic emission limits. Australia, the fifth biggest miner and third biggest exporter of fossil fuels, is responsible for about 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

At present the total CO₂+CH₄+N₂O level (mixing ratio) is near 500 ppm CO₂-equivalent (Figure 5). From the current atmospheric CO₂ level of above ~415 ppm, at the rise rate of 2 - 3 ppm/year, by 2050 the global CO₂ level would reach about 500 ppm and the CO₂-equivalent near 600 ppm, raising mean temperatures to near-2°C above preindustrial level, enhancing further breakdown of the large ice sheets and a further rise of sea levels.


Figure 5. Evolution of the CO₂+CH₄+N₂O level (mixing ratio)



Andrew Glikson

Dr Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
ANU Climate Science Institute
ANU Planetary Science Institute
Canberra, Australia


Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442






Offline John of Wallan

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Re: The Environment Board
« Reply #346 on: February 22, 2021, 11:56:41 PM »
Apparently its cold in parts of the northern hemisphere.... Wonder why?

JOW

Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2021
Snowstorms, the breach of the Arctic vortex and the effects of ice meltwater on the oceans
by Andrew Glikson

Warnings by leading climate scientists regarding the high sensitivity of the atmosphere in response to abrupt compositional changes, such as near-doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations, are now manifest: According to Wallace Broecker, (the “father” of climate science) “The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self-stabilizing, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges, and humans have already given the climate a substantial nudge”. As stated by James Zachos, “The Paleocene hot spell should serve as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of climate”.

As snowstorms such as the “Beast from the East” (2018) and “Storm Darcy” (2021) sweep the northern continents, reaching Britain and as far south as Texas and Greece, those who still question the reality and consequences of global climate change, including in governments, may rejoice as if they have a new argument to question global warming.

However, as indicated by the science, these fronts result from a weakened circum-Arctic jet stream boundary due to decreased temperature polarity between the Arctic Circle and high latitude zones in Europe, Russia and North America. The reduced contrast allows migration of masses of cold Arctic air southward and of tropical air northward across the weakened jet stream boundary, indicating a fundamental shift in the global climate pattern (Figure 1).


Figure 1. (A) Extensions from the Arctic polar zone into Europe and North America; (B) Extension into North America; (C) weakening and increasing undulation of the Arctic jet stream boundary (NOAA) allowing intrusion of air masses of contrasted temperature across the boundary.

The weakening of the Arctic boundary is a part of the overall shift of climate zones toward the poles in both hemispheres, documented in detail in Europe (Figure 2). Transient cooling pauses are projected as a result of the flow of cold ice meltwater from Greenland and Antarctica into the oceans, leading to stadial cooling intervals.


Figure 2. Migration of climate zones in Europe during 1981-2010 and under +2°C. Faint pink areas represent advanced warming. (A, left) Agro‐climate zonation of Europe based on growing season length (GSL) and active temperature sum (ATS) obtained as an ensemble median from five different climate model simulations during the baseline period (1981–2010). (B, right) Ensemble median spatial patterns of agro-climate zones migration under 2°C global surface warming according to model RCP8.5. Gray areas represent regions where no change with respect to the baseline period is simulated.

A combination of ice sheet melting and the flow of melt water into the oceans on the one hand, and ongoing warming of tropical continental zones on the other hand, are likely to lead to the following:
Storminess due to collisions of cold and warm air masses;
As the ice sheets continue to melt, the cold meltwater enhances lower temperatures at shallow ocean levels, as modelled by Hansen et al. (2016) and Bonselaer et al (2018) (Figure 3A), as contrasted with warming at deeper ocean levels over large parts of the oceans. This transiently counterbalances the effects of global warming over the continents arising from the greenhouse effect;
The above processes herald chaotic climate effects, in particular along continental margins and island chains.

Figure 3. A. 2080–2100 meltwater-induced sea-air temperature anomalies relative to the standard RCP8.5 ensemble (Bronselaer et al., 2018), indicating marked cooling of parts of the southern oceans. Hatching indicates where the anomalies are not significant at the 95% level; B. Negative temperature anomalies through the 21st-22nd centuries signifying stadial cooling intervals (Hansen et al., 2016); C. A model of Global warming for 2096, where cold ice melt water occupies large parts of the North Atlantic and circum-Antarctica, raises sea level by about 5 meters and decreases global temperature by -0.33°C (Hansen et al., 2016).

The extreme rate at which the global warming and the shift of climate zones are taking place virtually within a period less than one generation-long, faster than major past warming events such as at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary 56 million years ago, renders the term “climate change” hardly appropriate, since what we are looking at is a sudden and abrupt event.

According to Giger (2021) “Tipping points could fundamentally disrupt the planet and produce abrupt change in the climate. A mass methane release could put us on an irreversible path to full land-ice melt, causing sea levels to rise by up to 30 meters. We must take immediate action to reduce global warming and build resilience with these tipping points in mind.”

Computer modelling does not always capture the sensitivity, complexity and feedbacks of the atmosphere-ocean-land system as observed from paleoclimate studies. Many models portray gradual or linear responses of the atmosphere to compositional variations, overlooking self-amplifying effects and transient reversals associated with melting of the ice sheets and cooling of the oceans by the flow of ice melt.

According to Bonselaer et al. (2018) “The climate metrics that we consider lead to substantially different future climate projections when accounting for the effects of meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. These differences have consequences for climate policy and should be taken into account in future IPCC reports, given recent observational evidence of increasing mass loss from Antarctica” and “However, the effect on climate is not included (by the IPCC) and will not be in the upcoming CMIP6 experimental design. Similarly, the effects of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet have so far not been considered, and could lead to further changes in simulated future climate”. Depending on future warming the effect of Antarctic ice meltwater may extend further, possibly becoming global.

By contrast to ocean cooling, further to NASA’s reported mean land-ocean temperature rise of +1.18°C in March 2020 above pre-industrial temperatures, relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, large parts of the continents, including central Asia, west Africa eastern South America and Australia are warming toward mean temperatures of +2°C and higher. The contrast between cooling of extensive ocean regions and warming of the continental tropics is likely to lead to extreme storminess, in particular along continent-ocean interfaces.

The late 20th century to early 21st century global greenhouse gas levels and regional warming rates have reached a large factor to an order of magnitude faster than warming events of past geological and mass extinction events, with major implications for the nature and speed of extreme weather events.

For these reasons the term “climate change” for the current extreme warming, which is reaching +1.5°C over the continents and more than +3°C over the Arctic over a period shorter than one century, no longer applies.

The world is looking at an extremely rapid shift in the climatic conditions that have allowed civilization to emerge.


Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442







Posted by Sam Carana at 3:47 AM

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: The Environment Board
« Reply #347 on: March 19, 2021, 03:44:29 PM »
Ah, the news just keeps getting better!

JOW

Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2021
Overshoot or Omnicide?
Questions and Anwers with Sam Carana


Above image shows a non-linear trend based on 1880-2020 NASA Land+Ocean data that are adjusted 0.78°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, to more fully reflect strong polar warming, and to reflect surface air temperatures over oceans.

The trend highlights that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed in 2012 (inset), while the 2°C threshold looks set to be crossed next year and a 2°C rise could be reached at the end of  2026.

Overshoot?

The blue trend in the image at the top shows the temperature rise crossing 1.5°C in 2012. Could this be a temporary overshoot? Could temperatures come down in future, to such extent that this will bring the average temperature rise back to below 1.5°C?

An associated question is how much temperatures will rise when averaged over a 30-year period that is centered around the start of 2012? In other words, what is the average temperature rise from 1997 to end 2026?

The answer is that, for the 1997-2026 average to be below 1.5°C, temperatures would have to fall over the next few years. Even if the temperature for 2021 fell to a level as low as it was in 2018 and remained at that same lower level until end 2026, the 1997-2026 average would still be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial.
Will temperatures rise over the next few years? Why? By how much?

Even if al emissions of greenhouse gases by people could magically end from one moment to another, temperatures would still continue to rise over the next few years. Reasons for this rise are listed below, and it is not an exhaustive list. By implication, there is no carbon budget left. Pretending that there was a carbon budget left, to be divided among polluters and to be consumed over the next few years, that suggestion is irresponsible.

• The warming impact of carbon dioxide reaches its peak a decade after emission, while methane's impact over ten years is huge, so the warming impact of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere is likely to prevent temperatures from falling and could instead keep raising temperatures for some time to come.

• Temperatures are currently suppressed. We're in a La Niña period, as illustrated by the image below.


• We're also at a low point in the sunspot cycle. As the image on the right shows, the number of sunspots can be expected to rise as we head toward 2026, and temperatures can be expected to rise accordingly.

• Add to this the impact of a recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. We are currently experiencing the combined impact of three short-term variables that are suppressing the temperature rise, i.e. a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a La Niña event and a low in sunspots.

Over the next few years, in the absence of Sudden Atmopsheric Warming events, a huge amount of heat could remain present at surface level. As the temperature impact of other short-term variables reverses, i.e. as the sunspot cycle moves toward a peak and a El Niño develops, this could push up temperatures substantially. The world could be set up for a perfect storm by 2026, since sunspots are expected to reach a peak by then and since it takes a few years to move from a La Niña low to the peak of an El Niño period.

• Furthermore, temperatures are currently also suppressed by sulfate cooling. This impact is falling away as we progress with the necessary transition away from fossil fuel and biofuel, toward the use of more wind turbines and solar panels instead. Aerosols typically fall out of the atmosphere within a few weeks, so as the transition progresses, this will cause temperatures to rise over the next few years.


• Also holding back the temperature rise at the moment is the buffer effect of thick sea ice in the Arctic that consumes heat as it melts. As Arctic sea ice thickness declines, more heat will instead warm up the Arctic, resulting in albedo changes, changes to the Jet Stream and possibly trigger huge releases of methane from the seafloor. The rise in ocean temperature on the Northern Hemisphere looks very threatening in this regard (see image on the right) and many of these developments are discussed at the extinction page. There are numerous feedbacks that look set to start kicking in with growing ferocity as temperatures keep rising, such as releases of greenhouse gases resulting from permafrost thawing and the decline of the snow and ice cover. Some 30 feedbacks affecting the Arctic are discussed at the feedbacks page.

• The concusion of study after study is that the situation is worse than expected and will get even worse as warming coninues. Some examples: a recent study found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release carbon dioxide previously thought to remain trapped by iron; and yet another study found that kelp off the Californian coast has collapsed.
Where do we go from here?


[ image from earlier post ]

The same blue trend that's in the image at the top also shows up in the image on the right, from an earlier post, together with a purple trend and a red trend that picture even worse scenarios than the blue trend.   

The purple trend is based on 15 recent years (2006-2020), so it can cover a 30-year period (2006-2035) that is centered around end December 2020. As the image shows, the purple trend points at a rise of 10°C by 2026, leaving little or no scope for the current acceleration to slow, let alone for the anomaly to return to below 2°C.

The red trend is based on a dozen recent years (2009-2020) and shows that the 2°C threshold could already have been crossed in 2020, while pointing at a rise of 18°C by 2025.

In conclusion, temperatures could rise by more than 3°C by the end of 2026, as indicated by the blue trend in the image at the top. At that point, humans will likely go extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA Global Climate Report - February 2021 - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202102/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature Anomaly
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/12/12/1880-2021

• NOAA Sunspots - solar cycle progression
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html

• What Carbon Budget?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/what-carbon-budget.html

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• High Temperatures October 2020
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/10/high-temperatures-october-2020.html

• Temperature keep rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/temperatures-keep-rising.html

• More Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/more-extreme-weather.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Sudden Stratospheric Warming
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sudden-stratospheric-warming.html

• Iron mineral dissolution releases iron and associated organic carbon during permafrost thaw - by Monique Patzner et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20102-6

• Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave - by Meredith McPherson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6

• Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes - by Nancy Harris et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00976-6

• Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission by Katharine Ricke et al.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002

• Confirm Methane's Importance
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html

• FAQs
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html



Offline John of Wallan

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Re: The Environment Board
« Reply #348 on: March 31, 2021, 01:25:45 PM »
If we change now, we can save the world.
Pigs might fly too.
Immediate “transformative action”. That will be my new catch phrase.

The pooch is well and truely screwed and we still have morons arguing that its all a big conspiracy theory..

JOW


Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/barrier-reef-doomed-as-up-to-99-percent-of-coral-at-risk-report-finds-20210331-p57fng.html

Text:
Barrier Reef doomed as up to 99% of coral at risk, report finds
By Nick O'Malley and Mike Foley
April 1, 2021 — 5.00am

View all comments

The Great Barrier Reef is all but doomed, with between 70 and 99 per cent of corals set for destruction unless immediate “transformative action” is taken to reverse global warming, according to a new report.

The Australian Academy of Science says the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees has now slipped out of reach and is “virtually impossible”.
Coral bleaching near Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef during 2016.

Coral bleaching near Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef during 2016.Credit:EarthJustice, EJA

“Limiting the temperature rise to the lower Paris Agreement target is exceedingly difficult, and with only three or four more years of emissions at current levels remaining, the target has become virtually impossible to achieve,” says The Risks to Australia of a 3C Warmer World.

If 1.5 degrees of warming was sustained, the Great Barrier Reef would cease to exist as we know it, says one of the authors, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a biologist and climate scientist specialising in coral reefs.
Related Article
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What will happen to our cities (and beaches) at 3 degrees of warming?

At 1.5 degrees of warming, the reef would shrink by 70 to 90 per cent. At 2 degrees, just 1 per cent of the reef would survive.

If warming was stabilised, surviving corals suited to warmer temperatures may eventually return to cover the reef. Should it continue unabated, corals would vanish entirely to be replaced by other organisms such as seaweeds and bacteria, said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

“It’s questionable that this would produce the $5 billion in income the reef now produces in tourism,” he said.

Another of the authors, Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes of Macquarie University, said at current rates of emissions the world is likely to burn through its 1.5 degree “carbon budget” by 2025.

According to the report, the earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era.

However, warming does not impact on the world uniformly and, according to Professor Hughes, Australia is already experiencing 1.4 degrees warming.

“The observations that we are seeing of things like unprecedented bushfires and regular frequent bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef are consistent with the predictions that have been made previously about a 1.5-degree world,” she said.

“This is already a difficult world and really the main point of the academy report was to show that if you think this is difficult, then imagine double or triple the warming that we’ve had.”
Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

Love on Phillip Island: Bumper breeding season for penguins

Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

1:34
Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues

In a world-first, researchers have successfully pioneered small-scale coral restoration using a technique dubbed Coral IVF.

In this scenario Black Summer fires would likely be an annual event and one in a 100-year floods would happen more commonly.

Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said it would be “disastrous” for politicians and policymakers to consider the report an excuse for giving up on reducing emissions.

Rather, he said it was further evidence that governments needed to shift from “gradualism to transformative action”. This meant committing not only to net zero targets by 2050, but substantial annual cuts guided by a significant reductions target for 2030.

Professor Frank Jotzo, another contributor to the paper and director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, said he agreed 1.5 degrees was likely out of reach, but serious and immediate action could still see the world stabilise at between 1.5 and 2 degrees, which would make a huge difference to the quality of life on earth.

According to Professor Jotzo the unprecedented growth of wind and solar power over the past few years showed not only that the world has the technology to replace fossils with clean energy, but the energy produced will be cheaper than for traditional fossil sources such as oil and gas.

As a result we can afford to spend on storage technologies such as batteries and pumped hydro, he said.

At the Paris Climate Conference in 2016 Australia signed up to the agreement to keep global warming below 2 degrees and as close to 1.5 degrees as possible. At the time Australia committed to reduce its emissions by 26-28 per cent based on 2005 levels by 2030. The agreement included a so-called ratchet mechanism designed to encourage nations to raise their targets.

Over the past year the number of countries with targets of net zero by mid-century has leapt from about 25 per cent to 75 per cent.

Now, pressure is mounting on countries to make 2030 targets more ambitious. Professor Jotzo said he believes that the US, which is hosting a climate summit of 40 world leaders this month, will probably double its 2030 target by around 50 per cent, increasing pressure on Australia to significantly raise its target.
Related Article
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A spokesman for Energy and Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor said global warming was “a global problem requiring a global solution”.

“The only pathway for all countries to get to net zero is by getting low emissions technologies to commercial parity with existing alternatives,” the spokesman said.

“When developing countries are no longer forced to choose between growth and decarbonisation, then global emissions will fall.

“Australia has strong targets, an enviable track record, and a responsible plan to get the cost of low emissions technologies down.”

Offline John of Wallan

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Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN
« Reply #349 on: April 01, 2021, 06:39:04 PM »
I am amazed at the arogance of these idiots who believe they can change the ecco-system without unintended consequences.
Cliamte change is already changing the ecco-system with lots of unintended consequences!
The more complex a system is the more it will be chaotic in nature with non-linear and unforseen reactions to diffferent inputs.

What could possibly go wrong?

JOW

Link:
https://www.rt.com/news/519904-sweden-experiment-dim-sun-gates/

Text:
Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN to fight climate change amid outcry from activists
2 Apr, 2021 01:17
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Sweden axes Bill Gates-funded Harvard experiment aiming to DIM THE SUN to fight climate change amid outcry from activists
FILE PHOTO. ©  Reuters / Red Bull Content Pool / Keith Ladzinski
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Sweden’s space agency has called off a geoengineering experiment to determine whether blotting out the sun with aerosols could reverse global warming. Funded by Bill Gates, the project stoked fierce opposition from eco groups.
Proposed by researchers at Harvard University, the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment, or SCoPEx, ultimately planned to release a cloud of calcium carbonate – more commonly known as chalk dust – into the atmosphere from a high-altitude balloon to study its effects on sunlight reaching earth. The project proved too controversial, however, and on Wednesday the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) said that a test flight set for June would not move forward.

“The scientific community is divided regarding geoengineering, including any related technology tests such as the planned technical balloon test flight from Esrange this summer,” the SSC said in a statement on Wednesday.

SSC has had dialogues this spring with both leading experts on geo-engineering and with other stakeholders, as well as with the SCoPEx Advisory Board. As a result of these dialogues and in agreement with Harvard, SSC has decided not to conduct the technical test flight planned for this summer.

ALSO ON RT.COM
Bill Gates’ Mr Burns-style attempt to dim the sun might not cool the planet, but it might well sell a few more copies of his book
Planned for the Arctic town of Kiruna, the June flight would have merely tested the balloon’s systems to pave the way for the study, but local activists have vocally opposed the initiative. In a joint letter penned last month, the Saami Council – which advocates for Sweden’s indigenous Saami people – and three environmental groups warned that the SCoPEx experiment could have “catastrophic consequences.”

While SCoPEx’s website states the experiment would pose “no significant hazard to people or the environment” and would release only a small amount of particles into the air, the Saami Council has opposed solar geoengineering in concept, saying it “essentially attempts to mimic volcanic eruptions by continuously spewing the sky with sun-dimming particles.” The activist groups also argued SCoPEx could distract from the goal of reducing carbon emissions and have “irreversible sociopolitical effects that could compromise the world’s necessary efforts to achieve zero-carbon societies.”

The experiment has received backing from Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program, whose website names billionaire climate crusader Bill Gates among its private donors, though it does not specify his contribution. Previously, a lead researcher working on SCoPEx, David Keith of Harvard, separately received at least $4.6 million from Gates for his Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (FICER), according to the Guardian. Founded in 2007, FICER also funds research into solar geoengineering.

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Scientists have new plan to fight global warming: Dimming the sun
Asked at a 2010 TED talk about what “emergency measures” mankind could implement to fight climate change should all else fail, Gates suggested solar geoengineering could be an “insurance policy.”

“There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, which are various techniques that would delay the heating to buy up 20 or 30 years to get our act together. Now that's just an insurance policy, you hope that you don't need to do that,” he said, adding that the idea might be “kept in the back pocket.”

Keith, a professor of applied physics at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, told Reuters the SSC’s decision to scrap the experiment was “a setback,” but noted that the project could move to the US if the troubles continue in Europe. Until then, the researchers say they will continue to lobby for SCoPEx in Sweden, hoping to generate public interest and support.

The experiment could find traction in the States, as a report published last week by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine called on the government to devote between $100 and $200 million to solar geoengineering projects, including technologies to dim out the sun, over the next five years

Offline John of Wallan

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Interesting summary of climate change
« Reply #350 on: April 04, 2021, 12:13:02 AM »
Looks like an honest summary of where we are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Deaz3UN0rw

Change is coming.... Wont be voluntary.

JOW

Offline John of Wallan

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Re: The Environment Board
« Reply #351 on: April 09, 2021, 07:42:58 PM »
It seems we are going to amuse ourselves to death.
If ever a song sumed up where we are headed this surely must be it.

We watched the tragedy unfold
We did as we were told


JOW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gv-yZ6sVeyw

Amused to Death
Roger Waters

Doctor Doctor, what is wrong with me
This supermarket life is getting long
What is the heart life of a colour TV
What is the shelf life of a teenage queen
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
News hound sniffs the air
When Jessica Hahn goes down
He latches on to that symbol of detachment
Attracted by the peeling away of feeling
The celebrity of the abused shell, the belle
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
Ooh western woman
Ooh western girl
And the children on Melrose
Strut their stuff
Is absolute zero cold enough
And out in the valley, warm and clean
The little ones sit by their TV screens
No thoughts to think
No tears to cry
All sucked dry
Down to the very last breath
Bartender what is wrong with me?
Why am I so out of breath?
The captain said excuse me ma'am
This species has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
It has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
We watched the tragedy unfold
We did as we were told
We bought and sold
It was the greatest show on earth
But then it was over
We ohhed and aahed
We drove our racing cars
We ate our last few jars of caviar
And somewhere out there in the stars
A keen-eyed look-out
Spied a flickering light
Our last hurrah
Our last hurrah
And when they found our shadows
Grouped 'round the TV sets
They ran down every lead
They repeated every test
They checked out all the data on their lists
And then, the alien anthropologists
Admitted they were still perplexed
But on eliminating every other reason
For our sad demise
They logged the only explanation left
This species has amused itself to death
No tears to cry, no feelings left
This species has amused itself to death
Amused itself to death
Amused itself to death (repeating)
(Switch channels)
"Years later, I saw Bill Hubbard's name on the memorial to the missing at Aras. And I... when I saw his name I was absolutely transfixed; it was as though he... he was now a human being instead of some sort of nightmarish memory of how I had to leave him, all those years ago. And I felt relieved, and ever since then I've felt happier about it, because always before, whenever I thought of him, I said to myself, 'Was there something else that I could have done?' And that always sort of worried me. And having seen him, and his name in the register - as you know in the memorials there's a little safe, there's a register in there with every name - and seeing his name and his name on the memorial; it sort of lightened my... heart, if you like."
"When was it that you saw his name on the memorial?"
"Ah, when I was eighty-seven, that would be the year, ninete... eighty-four, nineteen eighty-four."

 

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