AuthorTopic: Crazy Weather  (Read 51632 times)

Offline azozeo

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Tropical Storm Emily Eye Full of "Biologicals" - 14 miles of Birds!
« Reply #420 on: July 31, 2017, 02:06:58 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/swa0J9NfuVA&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/swa0J9NfuVA&fs=1</a>

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Miami 2017
« Reply #421 on: August 02, 2017, 02:50:40 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/MDXLyczUMoE" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/MDXLyczUMoE</a>

RE

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-beach-flooding-due-to-tropical-storm-emily-9542759

Miami Is Totally Underwater Right Now Thanks to Tropical Storm Emily
Jerry Iannelli | August 1, 2017 | 4:35pm

Well, uh, don't drive in Miami right now. Thanks to the remnants of yesterday's Tropical Storm Emily (which has since weakened to a depression), most of Miami Beach and a big chunk of downtown Miami sit under something close to a foot of water. Cars can't move, trees have fallen into roads, and a flash-flood warning has been issued for Miami Beach until 5:45 p.m.

Miami social media users have been posting apocalyptic photos for the past few hours. You currently need an ark to make it through South Beach, and the National Weather Service's Miami office literally just tweeted out the phrase "turn around, don't drown."
Related Stories

    Tropical Storm Emily Closes Miami Beach Restaurants
    Why Did Miami Beach's Multimillion-Dollar Anti-Flood Pumps Fail?
    Did a Miami Man Really Catch a Fish in South Beach Floodwater Yesterday?

Here's a breakdown of which streets in South Beach are blocked off due to flooding. Hint: It's all of them.

Frighteningly, some vital passageways through town are inundated: Mount Sinai Medical Center is getting hit with waves, and westbound MacArthur Causeway, one of the main roads off the barrier island, is submerged:

It's not just Miami Beach: City of Miami Police on the mainland have issued a warning about a microlake popping up downtown:

It also seems most of Brickell is flooded as well. New Times reader Charlotte Zoda sent the following photos:
Miami Is Totally Underwater Right Now Thanks to Tropical Storm Emily
EXPAND
Courtesy of Charlotte Zoda
Miami Is Totally Underwater Right Now Thanks to Tropical Storm Emily
EXPAND
Courtesy of Charlotte Zoda
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Miami Is Totally Underwater Right Now Thanks to Tropical Storm Emily
EXPAND
Courtesy of Charlotte Zoda

Astoundingly, this is all happening without a major storm hitting Miami. Emily barely grazed South Florida — had a tropical storm or hurricane hit, things would likely look even worse than they do now. That's legitimately scary news: A November report from Miami-Dade County warned that the causeways leading people off Miami Beach are highly vulnerable to flooding due to sea-level rise. That means, as the globe warms over time, it's more likely drivers will get trapped in Miami Beach during a storm like this.
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Offline azozeo

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Re: Crazy Weather
« Reply #422 on: August 02, 2017, 03:57:21 PM »
A Tsunami will wash the bitch into the history books...

Offline azozeo

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Re: Crazy Weather - It's raining at both poles
« Reply #423 on: August 12, 2017, 01:09:24 PM »
2017-08-10 - It's raining at both poles:
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2017/08/rain-in-arctic-and-antarctic.html

Offline azozeo

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Crazy Weather - Entire forest looks eerily similar to Tunguska Event!
« Reply #424 on: August 12, 2017, 06:06:35 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WDfLAKRbQRg&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WDfLAKRbQRg&fs=1</a>

Offline Surly1

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Re: Crazy Weather - Entire forest looks eerily similar to Tunguska Event!
« Reply #425 on: August 13, 2017, 06:13:15 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/WDfLAKRbQRg&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/WDfLAKRbQRg&fs=1</a>

Just amazing.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline azozeo

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Crazy Weather - "Jaw-Dropping" TALL Land Spout
« Reply #426 on: August 14, 2017, 01:36:07 PM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Xm4ybJMv3NY&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Xm4ybJMv3NY&fs=1</a>

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Re: Crazy Weather
« Reply #427 on: August 16, 2017, 09:05:26 AM »
2017-08-14 - New study - 'Super heat waves' of 131F coming if global warming continues unchecked:
http://www.fasterthanexpected.com/2017/08/14/new-study-super-heat-waves-of-131f-coming-if-global-warming-continues-unchecked/

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Looks like Eddie is going to get drenched.  :o

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/tropical-storm-harvey-poised-to-be-category-3-hurricane-imperiling-gulf-coast-texas-in-direct-path-of-suddenly-intensifying-astounding-hurricane-harvey/2017/08/24/16b43004-88df-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html?utm_term=.aa6e472afb3f


Texas in direct path of suddenly intensifying, ‘astounding’ Hurricane Harvey


Hurricane Harvey is seen in the Texas Gulf Coast on August 24, 2017. (NOAA/Reuters)

By Joel Achenbach, Steven Mufson and Jason Samenow August 24 at 8:13 PM

Texas is bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding and winds as Hurricane Harvey intensified Thursday and cruised toward a late Friday impact near Corpus Christi.

The National Hurricane Center described Harvey’s sudden strengthening as “astounding.” The storm is expected to strike as a Category 3 hurricane — meaning with winds greater than 111 miles per hour — making it the most powerful storm to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Despite the increasingly alarming forecasts, officials in Corpus Christi as of Thursday evening had held off on ordering mandatory evacuations of the city, which includes a great deal of low-lying land and a barrier island. “I’m not going to risk our police and fire people trying to drag somebody out of the house if they don’t want to go,” Mayor Joe McComb said at an afternoon news conference.

The surprise hurricane is poised to be the first major test of disaster response for the Trump administration, whose appointee to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency — William B. “Brock” Long — was confirmed in June.

“With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in a Thursday morning advisory. “Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.”

Harvey had disintegrated into a tropical depression as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula into the western Gulf of Mexico this week. But it reorganized itself over the hot Gulf waters, forming a new, 15-mile-wide eye, and rapidly evolved into a hurricane by midday Thursday.

It then drifted northwest at 10 miles an hour and was forecast to slow down a bit, giving it time to siphon energy from the steamy Gulf. When it comes ashore, forecasters said, it could have sustained winds of 125 miles per hour, with a 12-foot storm surge.

Worse, it is projected to stall on the Texas coast for several days, which could dump historic quantities of rain, with some places seeing as much as 35 inches, the hurricane center said.

The storm is forecast to meander to the east, deluging Houston and possibly New Orleans next week.

Officials in Corpus Christi scrambled Thursday to respond to the sudden hurricane threat but decided against mandatory evacuations. Instead, officials instructed residents on the barrier island and low-lying areas inland to evacuate on a voluntary basis.

“We are up to and almost at the threshold of mandatory evacuations, but we are not going to cross that line right now,” McComb said. “We are going in the strongest possible terms to encourage the residents in the low-lying areas, as they say, ‘Get out of Dodge.’ ”

Nueces County Judge Samuel L. Neal, who is overseeing the county’s emergency response, did not rule out mandatory evacuations but said such a move would not be done lightly.

“We will do it if we feel it’s necessary,” he said. “This would create a major, major impact on the way a lot of people do business.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) declared a preemptive state of disaster in 30 counties, including Harris County, home to Houston, the fourth most-populated city in the country. Charles Bujan, mayor of the barrier-island city of Port Aransas, Tex., ordered all citizens to evacuate except those working as emergency responders.

Long has stressed in interviews with The Washington Post that state and local officials need to improve their emergency readiness and recognize that it is not the federal government’s responsibility alone to respond to natural disasters.

Long has also urged citizens to understand that they will often be their own first responders in a crisis.

“People need to be the help before the help arrives,” he said earlier this month.

Long met with New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) on Tuesday and discussed preparations for hurricane season and the Aug. 5 flooding in New Orleans.

“Preparedness is a partnership between the local, state and federal level,” Long said. “Here, there is great concern over the city of New Orleans’s ability to pump water out of the so-called bowl.”

The city has 120 water pumps, but currently only 105 are operational, said Tyronne Walker, communications director for Landrieu. He said the city has brought in 26 generators to provide electricity during an emergency.

“Right now, there’s no reason to panic, but you know, everybody should just be focused on getting their plans in order,” Walker said. “While we’re in a stronger position than we were in the last drainage incident, we’re still vulnerable.”

Harvey would be the first hurricane to hit Texas since Ike, a high Category 2 storm, came ashore in September 2008 in Galveston and caused tens of billions of dollars in property damage.

In Corpus Christi, some residents on Thursday left work early to begin preparing their homes, while others headed out of town or contemplated hitting the road before the storm arrived.

“Everybody’s just trying to get away from this area right now,” said Ricky Nesmith, the kitchen manager at Blackbeard’s On the Beach.

Nesmith said a full staff came into the restaurant Thursday morning, but most workers left early to get their homes ready. The looming storm has not slowed business, Nesmith said, saying that large groups kept the restaurant busy Thursday before the owner decided to close up shop early.

Bill Sissamis, who owns the Silverado Smokehouse, a barbecue restaurant about two miles from the water, said that he would stay open as long as the weather allows.

“We do tend to get a lot of false alarms here,” said Sissamis, 54, of previous storm warnings, adding, “The city goes a little bit nuts.”

The Gulf of Mexico is vitally important for the nation’s oil infrastructure. Offshore platforms produce about 1.7 million barrels a day, nearly a fifth of U.S. crude oil production. More than 45 percent of U.S. petroleum refining capacity lies along the Gulf Coast as well as 51 percent of total U.S. natural gas processing plant capacity, according to Energy Department data.

ExxonMobil said at noon Thursday that it was already reducing production at its Hoover oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston and was evacuating personnel working offshore.

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Shell said it was evacuating all of its 1,500 offshore workers by helicopter and that it had shut in production and secured equipment at its deepwater Perdido oil and gas production hub.

A Citigroup report to investors said more than 85 percent of Texas’s refining capacity is located inside the highest precipitation zone for the storm.

joel.achenbach@washpost.com

Mark Berman, Tim Craig, and Brian McNoldy contributed to this report.
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Offline azozeo

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Re: Crazy Weather
« Reply #429 on: August 24, 2017, 05:56:55 PM »
Ed,

Build an ark !

Offline Eddie

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Re: Crazy Weather
« Reply #430 on: August 24, 2017, 08:02:28 PM »
I'm in the Eastern Caribbean. Not sure we can get home on Sunday.

 It does look like a real hurricane, and not just a middlin' storm. Where we live though, I wouldn't expect more than a few inches of rain. Hurricanes are good for the Hill Country. The coast is gonna take it on the chin though.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

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Harvey Strengthens as Gasoline Surges on Texas Refinery Threat
« Reply #431 on: August 25, 2017, 01:53:05 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-25/harvey-strengthens-as-gasoline-surges-on-texas-refinery-threat

Harvey Strengthens as Gasoline Surges on Texas Refinery Threat
By Brian K Sullivan
and Mark Chediak
August 24, 2017, 10:03 PM AKDT


    Exxon, Anadarko, Shell among energy explorers cutting output
    Would be first major hurricane to hit U.S. since 2005’s Wilma

Oil Markets Brace for Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey strengthened on its path toward the Texas coast, forecast to become the worst storm to strike the region in more than a decade. Prices of commodities from gasoline to soybeans rallied as it threatened to wreak havoc on the heart of America’s energy sector.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Harvey to Category 2, with top winds of 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour, in an advisory posted around midnight Friday in Texas. Oil refiners in the Gulf Coast, home to as much as half of the nation’s refining capacity, began halting operations amid warnings of deadly floods and storm surges. If Harvey makes landfall as a Category 3 -- with winds of at least 111 miles an hour -- it’ll be the strongest storm to hit the U.S. since Wilma in 2005.

“We are expecting catastrophic, life-threatening flooding in Southeastern Texas,” said Carl Erickson, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. “The weather goes downhill as the day goes on Friday.”

Harvey has drifted from the southern Gulf of Mexico, regaining strength after passing over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula earlier this week. While its course has meant the storm isn’t shutting much oil and natural gas production in the Gulf, it’s set to hit a cluster of refineries that process almost 5 million barrels of oil a day.

Gasoline futures in New York surged to the highest in four months in intraday trade, rising by as much as 4 percent to $1.7303 a gallon, and were at $1.7301 at 12:29 p.m. Singapore time. Oil pared a fourth weekly loss and traded at $47.75 a barrel.

Flooding will probably close roads and inundate plants, while strong winds may disrupt on utilities’ systems and knock out power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. Flooding poses a “very serious risk,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF Advisors in Houston.

Workers prepare sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Harvey in Brownsville, Texas, on Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2017.
Photographer: Miguel Roberts/The Brownsville Herald via AP

The Port of Corpus Christi closed for all vessels sailing in or out as part of its hurricane preparations, officials said in an e-mailed statement. The U.S. Coast Guard shut Houston-Galveston ports to inbound vessels, and energy companies are shutting fuel terminals.

“It is definitely going to be an issue for the ship channels,” said Shunondo Basu, a meteorologist and natural gas analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster for 30 Texas counties and evacuations have begun. A hurricane warning has been issued from Port Mansfield to Sargent, Texas. A storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.7 meters) may occur near the Padre Island National Seashore to Sargent. Storm surge accounts for close to half of all hurricane deaths.

Harvey may dump as much as 35 inches on areas of Texas over the next week. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is sending staff and food and water supplies to the region.

How to Track Harvey’s Path Through Texas and Its Refineries

Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm when it struck near the mouth of the Houston Ship Channel in 2008, killed 103 people across the Caribbean and the U.S., including at least 21 in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. It caused about $29.5 billion in damage, according to a 2009 National Hurricane Center report. Property analytics firm CoreLogic estimated Thursday that 232,721 homes along the Texas coast with a reconstruction cost value of about $39.6 billion were at risk of storm surge damage.

Other businesses and markets affected:

    Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc are among the energy explorers that have shut platforms in the Gulf of Mexico; ConocoPhillips and EOG Resources Inc. are among those that have halted drilling in Texas
    Refiners including Valero Energy Corp. shut plants, forcing about 1 million barrels a day of crude and condensate capacity in Texas offline
    Kinder Morgan Inc. declared force majeure at natural gas compressor stations; DCP Midstream LPshut gas capacity in south-central Texas; and Enbridge Inc. evacuated non-essential workers from some platforms
    Soybean futures climbed Thursday as crops in Louisiana and Mississippi may be damaged; grain elevators including Corpus Christi Grain Co. suspended shipments
    Rain could damage almost 200,000 cotton bales in region, said Chris Yaklin, general manager of Gulf Coast Cooperative
    BNSF was halting traffic from Galveston Island late Thursday and holding Galveston-bound trains until further notice
    Policyholder-owned State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. has the largest share in the market for home coverage in Texas, followed by Allstate Corp., Farmers Insurance and United Services Automobile Association, according to data compiled by A.M. Best Co.

— With assistance by Amy Stillman, Sheela Tobben, Naureen S Malik, Barbara J Powell, Mary Schlangenstein, Sonali Basak, Ryan Collins, Laura Blewitt, Jim Polson, Alex Tribou, Alex Longley, David Wethe, Jessica Summers, Jen Skerritt, Catherine Traywick, Sophie Caronello, Tim Loh, and Dan Murtaugh
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Harvey Strengthens to 110 mph Winds; Catastrophic Flooding Likely in Texas
« Reply #432 on: August 25, 2017, 11:50:12 AM »
Looks like Harvey will even Hammer the Hill Country with Flash Flooding.  :o  Eddie's Creek should be a raging torrent by Tuesday.

Eddie's Creek on Tuesday

RE

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-harvey-rapidly-intensifies-catastrophic-flooding-likely-texas

Hurricane Harvey Strengthens to 110 mph Winds; Catastrophic Flooding Likely in Texas


Hurricane Harvey Strengthens to 110 mph Winds; Catastrophic Flooding Likely in Texas

August 25, 2017, 2:34 PM

Above:  Radar image of Hurricane Harvey at 9:05 am CDT Friday, August 25, 2017.

Hurricane Harvey is poised to deliver a catastrophic flooding blow to Texas after putting on an impressive round of rapid deepening Friday morning that brought the storm to the verge of Category 3 strength. Harvey passed over a warm ocean eddy with high heat content for over 6 hours Friday morning, and the extra energy the eddy provided allowed Harvey’s central pressure to fall a spectacular 15 mb in just two hours, from 967 mb at 4 am CDT to 952 mb at 6 am CDT. It takes several hours for a hurricane’s winds to respond to a rapid pressure fall, so we can expect that Harvey will be a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds by Friday evening. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm this morning was continuing to see falling pressures, with the 8 am CDT eye penetration recording a 949 mb pressure. The aircraft also observed evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle was beginning. In this situation, the inner eyewall would collapse and be replaced by a new eyewall with a larger diameter, which would likely slow down or end Harvey’s intensification phase.

Harvey is a very dangerous hurricane with extreme winds, storm surge, and rainfall. If you live in Texas, please heed the advice of local emergency management officials, and get out immediately if you live in an evacuation zone. Heavy rain squalls and strong wind gusts are already affecting the Texas coast, and tropical storm-force winds will begin affecting portions of the coast late Friday morning or early Friday afternoon, making evacuation difficult.

Hurricane Harvey

Figure 1. Hurricane Harvey as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 8:30 am CDT Friday, August 25, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.

Favorable conditions for intensification continue

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning continued to be very favorable for intensification. Satellite images and radar showed that Harvey had expanded in size, and had a very impressive area of heavy thunderstorms with well-organized spiral bands that were dumping torrential rains. Harvey had an intense ring of very heavy thunderstorms surrounding a 13-mile diameter eye, and cirrus clouds streaming away from the center showed the presence of excellent upper-level outflow to the north and east, which was ventilating the storm and allowing intensification to occur. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 – 15 knots, and the atmosphere had a high mid-level relative humidity of 70%. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a very warm 30°C (86°F). Warm waters extended deep into the ocean, providing a large reservoir of heat for the storm to draw upon.

Intensity forecast for Harvey

The current favorable conditions for development will remain in place through Friday night, according to the 12Z Friday run of the SHIPS model. Wind shear will remain light to moderate, and the atmosphere will be moist. SSTs will remain near 29.5°C (85°F). However, Harvey has now the warm ocean eddy it traversed early on Friday morning, and the total ocean heat content has fallen from an estimated 83 kilojoules per square centimeter at 1 am EDT Friday, to 50 kilojoules per square centimeter at 7 am CDT. This is still warm enough to fuel intensification, but not the rapid deepening observed early this morning. Total ocean heat content will continue to fall as Harvey approaches the coast, reducing the odds of rapid intensification. Harvey has only one upper-level outflow channel, to the north, and typically two outflow channels are needed to support development into a strong Category 4 storm. Radar loops and eye reports from the Hurricane Hunters have observed that the eyewall of Harvey has had gaps in it this morning, which was likely limiting intensification.

The 0Z and 6Z Friday runs of our top intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, COAMPS-TC, HMON, and DSHIPS—mostly predicted that Harvey would top out as a Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 120 – 125 mph before landfall. The HMON model was the most aggressive, predicting Harvey would max out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Harvey may undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall, which would likely weaken the top winds by 5 – 15 mph, but spread hurricane-force winds out over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. The 8 am CDT Friday eye report from the Hurricane Hunters documented concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 31 miles, which is a classic first indication that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway. The top winds observed by the aircraft were stronger in the outer eyewall than the inner eyewall, more evidence that the ERC is in full swing. We can expect that the inner eyewall might collapse later today, and the new eyewall will be the larger, 31-mile diameter one. In summary, we think the most likely peak intensity for Harvey is a Category 3 or 4 storm with 120 – 130 mph winds; a slightly lower landfall intensity of 110 – 115 mph can be expected if Harvey indeed undergoes a full eyewall replacement cycle. Either way, Harvey may bring the strongest hurricane-landfall winds to the U.S. coast in nearly 12 years, since Wilma (2005).

Harvey storm surge forecast

Figure 2.  The NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Exceedance Map for Texas shows the maximum inundation heights above ground that have a 30% chance of occurring, during the period Friday - Monday. The peak surge is expected to occur about 50 miles northeast of Corpus Christi. The town of Port Lavaca has a 30% chance of seeing storm surge flooding of 11 -13’. Official storm surge forecasts may vary from these 30% probabilities; please consult local authorities and statements. Data is taken from the 4 am CDT Friday NHC advisory. Image credit: NHC.

Impacts

Wind: The 10 am CDT Friday Wind Speed Probability Forecast from NHC called for the greatest chances of hurricane-force winds in Rockport: an 90% chance. Corpus Christi had a 60% chance, Port O’Connor a 55% chance, and Matagorda a 23% chance. Galveston and Brownsville had much lower odds: 5% and 3%, respectively.

Rain: All of our top models are predicting that Harvey will dump catastrophic amounts of rain in coastal Texas. Some areas will likely receive 2 – 3 feet of rain over a 7-day period.

Tornadoes: The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the tornado threat and placed parts of the central and upper Texas coastal plain, including the Houston area, under a slight risk of severe weather for both Friday and Saturday.

Storm Surge: Harvey’s dangerous peak storm surge of 6 – 12 feet will be capable of causing major damage along the central Texas coast. Storm surges as high as two feet were already being observed along the coast at 9 am CDT Friday. This region has a low tidal range, generally less than one foot between high and low tide, so the timing of Harvey’s landfall with respect to high tide will not make as much of a difference as we are usually concerned about with a hurricane landfall, though. NOAA has a nice “quicklook” page for Harvey that shows graphs of the water levels at gauging stations in the path of Harvey. In addition, our Wundermap with the “Storm Surge” layer turned on will give you a map with the surge values plotted. Here were the observed storm surges along the coast of central Texas, arranged from north to south, as of 9 am CDT Friday:

Galveston, 1.7’

Freeport, 1.6’

Port O’Connor, 1.6’

Port Lavaca, 1.5’

Seadrift, 0.6’

Copana Bay, .0.6’

Rockport, 0.8’

Port Aransas, 1.5’

Corpus Christi, 2.1’

Harvey’s combination of strength and rainfall duration has few if any parallels

The historical record of U.S. hurricanes gives us few, if any, analogs for a major hurricane landfall that transitions into a multi-day rainfall event as prolonged, extensive, and intense as the scenario painted by multiple forecast models for Harvey. All four of the high-probability 0Z Friday European model ensemble members, and all but one of the 20 GFS members, maintain Harvey at Cat 1 strength (or better) for the next five days. The official NHC forecast on Friday morning called for Harvey to maintain tropical storm strength through Wednesday. Even after Harvey weakens below hurricane strength, gale-force winds will continue to pump vast amounts of moisture onshore, fueling several days of heavy rain. The latest 5-day precipitation outlook from the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center (see Figure 3) projects that an area larger than the state of Massachusetts, including Houston and Galveston, can expect more than 20” of rain between now and Wednesday. Amounts of more than 10” cover an even larger area, extending into parts of the Austin-San Antonio urban corridor and including Corpus Christi and Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX, and Lake Charles, LA. Very serious flooding over the next several days can be expected well inland from the areas immediately at risk from Harvey’s initial landfall and storm surge. For example, Austin/San Antonio NWS office notes the potential for life-threatening flash flooding, especially from San Antonio south and east.

Tropical cyclones that produce inland flooding this widespread and intense tend to be weak, slow-moving tropical storms or tropical depressions, such as Tropical Storm Allison (2001), or even unclassified systems such as the “no-name” flood of 2016 that devastated southeast Louisiana. Both events produced more than $10 billion in damage (2016 dollars), and comparable amounts of flooding and damage are certainly possible with Harvey. Moreover, because Harvey is arriving as a much stronger hurricane, prolonged gale-force winds, perhaps extending well inland, have the potential to knock down many trees and power lines in areas where the soil is saturated, so power outages may be unusually extensive. Residents across south central and southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana should be prepared for the possibility of going multiple days without power.

Harvey rainfall forecast
Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for the period from Friday morning, August 25, through Wednesday morning, August 30. Localized amounts may be even higher, and some shifts to the contours of this area can be expected depending on Harvey’s eventual track. According to NOAA's David Roth, this is the most rainfall ever predicted by NOAA's Weather Predition Center (WPC), going back several decades. Image credit: NOAA/NWS WPC and NHC.

Dangerous compound storm surge and freshwater flooding for Galveston/Houston next week

Official NHC storm surge guidance, which extends out to 72 hours (currently through Monday morning, August 28), is not intended to depict the longer-term threat—perhaps extending well beyond Monday—posed just inland by huge amounts of freshwater blocked by the surge from flowing to the sea. Current storm surge warnings include Brazoria and Galveston, with a 2 - 4 foot surge expected from Harvey’s initial approach; however, more widespread flooding may occur in the Houston/Galveston area early next week. Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, who is riding out the hurricane on Galveston Island, highlights the potential for catastrophic flooding in the Galveston/Houston area if Harvey moves back out over the ocean, intensifies, then moves toward northeast, just offshore of Galveston, as the European model is predicting. In a Friday morning blog post, Dr. Needham points out that Harvey is likely to produce a storm surge for Galveston and Bolivar Islands that is less severe than during Hurricane Ike (2008)—which produced a surge of up to 19 - 22 feet—but far more prolonged. The multi-day onshore flow and storm surge coupled with extreme inland rainfall would push enormous amounts of water from several directions into Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. The result could be widespread, possibly unprecedented flooding early next week across southeastern parts of the Houston metropolitan area along and near the bay and the ship channel.

“From personal correspondence with people in the western communities of Galveston Bay, most people are staying put and getting supplies ready, but not anticipating flood levels could come anywhere near Ike. However, compound flooding has the potential to flood locations that did not flood during Ike and inflict a widespread and long-term catastrophe that could last into the better part of next week,” says Needham. Similar levels of compound flooding just inland could affect other parts of coastal Texas and perhaps southeast Louisiana, he adds. A major 2016 investigative report from Pro Publica and the Texas Tribute, “Hell and High Water,” examines the huge economic and societal risks posed by hurricane-related flooding in western Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel, which is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.

Flooding potential
Figure 4. This graphic from Hal Needham illustrates the areas where freshwater outflow from extreme inland flooding could be impeded by storm surge in Galveston Bay early next week, if Harvey takes the type of track indicated by the European model, moving slowly northeast along the Texas coast southwest of Galveston. This schematic is not an official or literal depiction of areas expected to flood; for such guidance, please refer to statements from NHC, the Houston/Galveston NWS office, and local authorities. Image credit: Courtesy Hal Needham.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to Hurricane Harvey

The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to Hurricane Harvey. They need your help!! The flooding caused by Harvey will leave many people stranded, and experience shows that a disproportionate number of them will be people with disabilities and older adults. Portlight is rallying stakeholders and working to help get people to safety, and will provide for any immediate needs they may have for durable medical equipment and other assistive technology. Portlight will be touring Red Cross and independent shelters to promote full accessibility to the facilities themselves, and to disaster survivor services. We hope you'll consider supporting Portlight's work with a donation.

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Hurricane Harvey: Live Satellite Feed
« Reply #433 on: August 25, 2017, 01:20:15 PM »
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'Catastrophic Flooding' As A Weakened Hurricane Harvey Lingers Over Texas
« Reply #434 on: August 26, 2017, 10:52:42 AM »
"The capital city of Austin, about 165 miles west of Houston, could see up to 20 inches of rain over the coming days, reports NPR's Windsor Johnston."

Eddie needs to bring his Snorkeling Equipment with him back from the Caribbean once he can get a plane out.  :o

Eddie searches for his McMansion in Austin

RE

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/26/546326246/warnings-of-catastrophic-flooding-as-a-weakened-hurricane-harvey-lingers-over-te

Warnings Of 'Catastrophic Flooding' As A Weakened Hurricane Harvey Lingers Over Texas


August 26, 20179:30 AM ET

Amy Held

    A man plays in the winds from Hurricane Harvey in Corpus Christi on Friday.
    Adrees Latif/Reuters
    Strong winds batter seaside houses from the approaching Hurricane Harvey in Corpus Christi, Texas on Friday. Harvey hit land about 30 miles northeast of Corpus Christi around 10 p.m., CDT, Friday, a massive Category 4 storm bringing winds of 130 mph.
    Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images
    A tree is knocked sideways during the passing of Hurricane Harvey on Saturday in Corpus Christi.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images
    A burned house and cars that caught fire. Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Texas coast late Friday, unleashing torrents of rain and packing powerful winds, the first major storm to hit the US mainland in 12 years.
    Merk Ralston/AFP/Getty Images
    A car is partially submerged after Harvey hit Corpus Christi.
    Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images
    Street signs lie on the ground after winds from Hurricane Harvey escalated on Friday.
    Adrees Latif/Reuters

1 of 6

Hurricane Harvey remains a serious threat as it continues a slow march over Texas, even as the National Hurricane Center downgraded it to a Category 1 storm with gusts up to 80 mph by early Saturday.

While the wind was weakening Saturday, the rain proved to be relentless.

"We could see isolated areas with rainfall amounts as much as 40 inches and that's going to cause life threatening flooding over the next several days," said Mike Brennan, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. "We're really looking at a multi-day rainfall disaster unfolding."

Harvey is expected to linger for the next few days, dropping significant rainfall over Texas.
National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration

When Harvey hit land about 30 miles northeast of Corpus Christi around 10 p.m., CDT, Friday, it was a massive Category 4 storm bringing winds of 130 mph, says The Associated Press.

It was the strongest hurricane to hit Texas since 1961, reports The Houston Chronicle.

The storm early Saturday morning

It took Harvey only a few hours to drop to a category 1 storm. By 7 a.m., CDT, Saturday, it was centered less than 50 miles from the middle Texas coast near the city of Victoria, Brennan said, and moving north-northwest around 6 mph.

"The center of Harvey is going to meander here over the middle Texas coast basically through the weekend and into the early and middle portions of next week and that is going to result in catastrophic flooding — life threatening flooding," Brennan said.

In the small coastal city of Rockport, Texas, 10 people were being treated for storm-related injuries, City Manager Kevin Carruth told media outlets. Among the injured were people at a senior housing complex where the roof had collapsed. A local jail was serving as a makeshift hospital, Carruth said.

On the ground in Corpus Christi, Texas

Corpus Christi is in the process of assessing the damage.

The city's police department tweeted Saturday, "Much road debris and downed power lines. Most traffic lights are out. Please be patient."

The city urged "extreme caution," to those venturing outside due to "many active power lines down or compromised citywide."

Corpus Christi has also issued a "precautionary" boil water notification, "to ensure destruction of all harmful bacteria and other microbes." Residents are being urged to limit toilet and faucet use because power was knocked out at the city's wastewater treatment plants.

On Saturday more than 300,000 Texas residents were without power, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

"As the winds gradually come down, we're still looking at hurricane force winds near the eye wall and in rain bands near the coast," said Brennan of the National Hurricane Center. But he cautioned that water levels will remain elevated through Saturday. "We're seeing tide levels, storm surge inundation reports, of still four to five feet above ground level among portions of the middle Texas coast."

NPR's Russell Lewis spent a rough night in Corpus Christi at a hotel overlooking the bay.

"All night long you could feel the windows rattling," Lewis says. "You could feel the building swaying and there was just debris hitting the hotel all night long."

On Friday, Lewis reported that he could see shingles blowing off the hotel. He said there were hundreds of Corpus Christi residents who opted to hunker down at the hotel rather than leave town.

Mixed messages from state, local officials on Friday

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had urged residents between Corpus Christie and Houston "to strongly consider evacuating." But Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner tweeted Friday, "Please think twice before trying to leave Houston en masse. No evacuation orders have been issued for the city."

Houston, the nation's fourth biggest city, is notoriously prone to flooding, reports the AP. By Saturday morning, high water areas were already reported in the city, according to The Houston Chronicle.

Severe weather continues, forecast into next week

A complicating factor on Saturday was a tornado threat for the middle and upper Texas coast, which remains in effect throughout the day, Brennan said.

Houston was under a Tornado Watch on Saturday, meaning tornadoes could form at any time. The city reported tornadoes "have already formed and caused damage in neighboring communities this morning."

A reporter with The Texas Tribune tweeted that three prisons near Houston were being evacuated, affecting around 4,500 inmates, as a nearby river rose.

The capital city of Austin, about 165 miles west of Houston, could see up to 20 inches of rain over the coming days, reports NPR's Windsor Johnston.

Nevertheless Austin's Homeland Security and Emergency Management Spokesman Jake Dirr tells Johnston that the city is preparing to take in evacuees from harder hit areas and is asking for volunteers to assist in the effort.

On Saturday, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt waived "certain fuel requirements," to address shortages caused by Harvey.

An EPA statement said Pruitt determined "extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances exist in portions of Texas as a result of the hurricane, and has granted a temporary waiver to help ensure an adequate supply of gasoline is available in the affected areas until normal supply to the region can be restored."

On Friday President Trump approved a federal disaster declaration for impacted areas, freeing up funding for aid including temporary housing.
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