AuthorTopic: The Doom Loop  (Read 1498 times)

Offline RE

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2018, 07:30:50 PM »

But I am not here to pull a trump and suck myself off. I do this to try and be helpful

That is my dilemma.   If I give advice, I want it to be helpful advice... and i am following instinct this time.

I think I will grab another beer
 

That is the goal of any reputable Diner.  Be Helpful.

It is however a crapshoot to be too definitive about timelines.  You can see the trends, but when it will break exactly is quite hard to determine.

You have to go with your gut on this.  If you go All In and make a hard prediction and it turns out right, you will be lauded as a certifiable Collapse Genius.  If you get it wrong, you get lumped in with Kunstler and everyone else who made hard predictions which didn't pan out.

Only you can decide which way to go on this.

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Online Nearingsfault

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #46 on: October 13, 2018, 07:32:49 PM »
Oh its there all right in the zeitgeist... In my area we watch the city people over leveraged on their Toronto homes (just as the shine is coming off that market) use their paper wealth to secure mortgages on historically sky high priced cottages they cannot actually afford. I'm just annoyed with it all. I've watched  the dirty bankster tricks for the last decade knowing they were punishing me for saving, being told non stop to slow down low interest home payments and invest heavily in the stock market, watching as time after time they financially rescue the most stupid amongst us and erode purchasing power and sink my kids in ever more debt... The tide is turning with interest rate hikes so maybe this time I'm not the chicken little guy at the party...
Adult beverages here too.
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Offline cernunnos5

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #47 on: October 13, 2018, 09:14:55 PM »
Thanks guys. I have fleshed out articles here before... encase you have heard me repeating myself.

one last story of the day...for evaluation....from the collective wisdom like a good anarchist.

When getting my beer... I topped the civic  And an empty 20ltr gas can from my fuel storage as part of my rotational fuel way of doing things. The price was shocking.

gas here is 1.27-plus at the moment. Sucks to buy gas at the top end... but I wanted to stay topped, MrsC5 pointed out we need to rotate our gas storage into our vehicle soon. I totally agree. I try to do every  6 months. We are at the 8-9th month. Bad timing... but it is why we do this. I pointed out to MrsC5 things to add into the decision. Gulf shut downs because of the hurricanes pushing speculative prices. We had a recent explosion at the at the NB Irving refinery. Local production. BC had a pipeline explosion recently to the states but BCers were asked to reduce their energy usage. Add the Iran thing...and now the Saudi thing...and we're set for the next commodities crash.

After filling, I spouted to the ignorant, minimum wage cashier (bad me) that it was only 1.35 (8 c higher) when the last commodities crash happened. Some spanky guys in a newer SUV chimed in. "When that happened, oil was 150 a barrel" (they were wrong but I wont quibble) 73$ dollars a barrel lately so some one is lining...

Good point...but I started to think it through.

When the suburb schmucks got flattened, it was 150  a barrel. If they are getting flattened... at half the price...that means...people are half as resilient now....thus, it only takes 80$ to crash the economy

cant communicate this better. passing out...about now

I really want to expand on that 

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2018, 09:16:31 PM »
I've been out of the markets since the first of the  year. A quick visit to my favorite sites gave me two quick insights.

The stock market is not yet technically broken and could easily rally from here.

The US dollar which recently hit what my cycles guru thought was a long term bottom, might be on the verge of breaking down. If it does continue to break down over the next few weeks, it might the beginning of a multi-year downtrend.

What everyone knows will happen frequently doesn't.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online Nearingsfault

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #49 on: October 13, 2018, 10:18:09 PM »
Thanks guys. I have fleshed out articles here before... encase you have heard me repeating myself.

one last story of the day...for evaluation....from the collective wisdom like a good anarchist.

When getting my beer... I topped the civic  And an empty 20ltr gas can from my fuel storage as part of my rotational fuel way of doing things. The price was shocking.

gas here is 1.27-plus at the moment. Sucks to buy gas at the top end... but I wanted to stay topped, MrsC5 pointed out we need to rotate our gas storage into our vehicle soon. I totally agree. I try to do every  6 months. We are at the 8-9th month. Bad timing... but it is why we do this. I pointed out to MrsC5 things to add into the decision. Gulf shut downs because of the hurricanes pushing speculative prices. We had a recent explosion at the at the NB Irving refinery. Local production. BC had a pipeline explosion recently to the states but BCers were asked to reduce their energy usage. Add the Iran thing...and now the Saudi thing...and we're set for the next commodities crash.

After filling, I spouted to the ignorant, minimum wage cashier (bad me) that it was only 1.35 (8 c higher) when the last commodities crash happened. Some spanky guys in a newer SUV chimed in. "When that happened, oil was 150 a barrel" (they were wrong but I wont quibble) 73$ dollars a barrel lately so some one is lining...

Good point...but I started to think it through.

When the suburb schmucks got flattened, it was 150  a barrel. If they are getting flattened... at half the price...that means...people are half as resilient now....thus, it only takes 80$ to crash the economy

cant communicate this better. passing out...about now

I really want to expand on that
The owner of the company I do work for put in a double walled gas tank  with pump at his house. He is shaving $.20 per litre off retail. The company has a fuel hungry econoline and his f150 so he goes through a lot. He'll pay for the tank in a year of savings...
I think of gas as a finished consumer product and oil as a raw material. when the market tanked in 08 oil was still expensive. but gas became cheap. Its price dropped much faster then oil because discretionary spending dropped like a rock.  I am out of my comfort zone on economics but gas is priced at what the market can bear with lots of room to move up or down much more so then oil. I know I'm rejigging my life to cut fuel costs. I now only move my tool mover out of the driveway if dollars are coming in and every second on the road is paid time. No more free trips in or only paid one way. I negotiated my rates that way on purpose. I will do trips in to meet potential clients on a case by case basis and I pre qualify them much more before committing to that then I used to. For backup I only store 75 litres of gas but I have the 400l propane tank and I calculated 10 gallons of gas equivalent of charcoal on hand which works out to almost 100 gallons of char... That just runs the atv, tractor or one of the generators though its not for road transport.
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline K-Dog

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #50 on: October 14, 2018, 10:59:41 AM »
If you get it wrong, you get lumped in with Kunstler and everyone else who made hard predictions which didn't pan out.

The problem is that Kunstler has the 18th century in his head.  Back then the scientific consensus was that the universe was like a big watch.  Totally mechanistic and predictable the universe runs on rules that can't be broken.  Then came Quantum Mechanics, Einstein and uncertainty.  The universe was seen to be more complicated than previously thought.  The rules still can't be broken but some of them turn out to be strange.

Two days ago I wrote this at Kunstler's place:

Quote
So today’s article,

The theme seems to be that there is a national obsession with trivia and that because of this, just desserts are just around the corner. Like the band on the Titanic playing on or something like that, but not quite like that really.

On the Titanic an area about the size of a house door was letting in water in and the passengers were doomed. There was no way around it, and the band played on. America too is doomed but there is a difference. A big difference. Our doom is by total choice. It would not have to be inevitable but certain individuals set things in motion so that it is.

Yet the time of our demise is not tied to an edict of cosmic justice as JHK predicts. Or perhaps it is:

Consider the death warrant of Georgia:

The court shall specify the time period for the execution in the sentence. The time period for the execution fixed by the court shall be seven days in duration and shall commence at noon on a specified date and shall end at noon on a specified date. The time period shall commence not less than 20 days nor more than 60 days from the date of sentencing. A new time period for the execution -due to stay- fixed by the judge shall commence not less than ten nor more than 20 days from the date of the order.

Plenty of wiggle room to do the deed at a random time in a specified time interval. Such wiggle room is in all death warrants.

So the crash of the American economy will happen not less than 20 months from the start of the term of the great golden one and not more than 60 months from his first inauguration I’ll say.

Nobody gets to know exactly when. That includes JHK.

Last week I pissed him off so much he wrote back.


JHK has disgust for our national obsession with trivia and that because of that he believes just desserts are just around the corner.

And according to McPherson who has a very strange relationship with reality we should all be Venusians by now.

What's the truth?

The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 03:54:38 PM by K-Dog »
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Offline cernunnos5

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #51 on: October 16, 2018, 07:36:38 PM »
Youtube is down at the moment. Hopefully it is a crash and not a shutdown to hide something.

In the mean time....

I had a phone call with Farmgal today.

It lead to me doing a quick write up over at Permies.com  (They really did me well on the windapult, bringing thousands of viewers and hundreds of readers to my site)
I thought I would plop the discusion up over here as well...to give you something to argue about. LOL At permies, you have to be super nice.

https://permies.com/t/94146/Apocalyptic-Survival-Advice

Offline RE

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #52 on: October 16, 2018, 07:55:55 PM »
Youtube is down at the moment. Hopefully it is a crash and not a shutdown to hide something.

In the mean time....

I had a phone call with Farmgal today.

It lead to me doing a quick write up over at Permies.com  (They really did me well on the windapult, bringing thousands of viewers and hundreds of readers to my site)
I thought I would plop the discusion up over here as well...to give you something to argue about. LOL At permies, you have to be super nice.

https://permies.com/t/94146/Apocalyptic-Survival-Advice

Quote from: C5
Prepping is dead. Long live prepping. It failed. Good riddance. What the world really needs is an ADAPTERS MOVEMENT.

I don't think prepping has "failed".  I'm a prepper.  It's about the time frame you are looking at for survival.  My time frame is about a decade at the outside.  I can lay in enough preps to last me a decade without ever having to go out and bust my crippled ass growing anything or putting in any fence posts either.  I can do it cheaper than it costs to run a Doomstead also, even if I was fortunate enough to get one for free like you did.  So WTF would I go out and spend every day busting my ass building stuff (assuming my miraculous recovery goes further here) when by prepping up I can do a better job of insuring my survival at a cheaper price with less work?  ???   :icon_scratch:

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Online Nearingsfault

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #53 on: October 16, 2018, 08:28:41 PM »
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #54 on: October 16, 2018, 11:15:49 PM »
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...
I got a meme for that... I don't think I have inflicted it on you...  :icon_mrgreen:

via Imgflip Meme Generator


And naturally, I consider you to be "doing the right sort of nothing".
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Online Surly1

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #55 on: October 17, 2018, 03:52:21 AM »
permie threads are so nice... I like the Adapter movement title. I thought of the "no movement movement" as my way of explaining most of what is wrong in the world...

It's a really nice site. I'm surprised I haven't spent time there.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #56 on: October 17, 2018, 08:12:37 AM »
The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.


Fairly profound, there Dog. I agree, and so many doomers don't get this. Just the old ones, LOL.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #57 on: October 17, 2018, 08:20:38 AM »
The truth according to K-Dog is that collapse is not going to be a single identifiable event that puts us in the middle of a dystopian novel.  Collapse ultimately becomes the fate of individuals and we all have different fates.  Eventually people will starve to death in America, and for many life will become nasty brutish and short.  But this will not happen to everybody and not all at the same time to those it does.  That it be a minority of people or a majority is irrelevant.  That is only a number.  The point I wish to make is that those who suffer merely 'disappear' but civilization limps on.  National Guardsmen shooting looters will be civilization limping on.  Latifundiumi run by prison labor will also be civilization limping on.  Some have already starved and you did not notice.

Collapse has been going on for years.  After the crash in 2008 I did not get hit by it right away.  I had a contract so my job was secure until the end of my contract and then I did not work for a few years until circumstances changed.  I 'recovered' but I realize not everybody did because I came close to fading away for all time myself.  Collapse is a game of musical chairs and if you are the one left standing up you collapse.

Victims of collapse don't get to play the game anymore.  That fact means the survivors will continue to play, and play, and play.  Survivors don't rewrite the rules of the game.  Only victims could do that so the music will play for a very long time and stop many times.  One man's collapse will not happen at the same time as another's.

Katrina,  the crash of 2008, name your disaster.  Collapse has been with us for a long time and if it continues as it has we will have Archdruids ridiculous 'catabolic collapse' concept where John Greer postulates a slow contraction which will defy all rules of mathematics and human nature.

Collapse in a 'doom' sense would mean serious interruption in the oil supply.  I see oil trains sending oil to export every day.  Oil if need be will be pumped at gunpoint while society adjusts and gets rid of excess flesh.  That flesh may well be ours but after we die the great game will go on without us.

Total collapse would mean we all die.  That is not going to happen.  For more likely will be that some find a way to profit from the demise of others.  Then they write history.

At some time something serious has to happen to cause a big die-off.  That is as sure as two plus two is four.  But knowing when will be impossible to predict.  Too many variables.


Fairly profound, there Dog. I agree, and so many doomers don't get this. Just the old ones, LOL.

Only wish to second Eddie's comment. Certainly appears reasonable and very well thought out and expressed.

Offline cernunnos5

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #58 on: October 20, 2018, 07:17:28 PM »
OK. Here we go fellows.
If You want something to worry about, This is it.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10

"‘If you want to worry about something … this is it’: Central banks and investors are sounding the alarm on a corner of the debt market that's suddenly over $US1 trillion in size"


Online Nearingsfault

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Re: The Doom Loop
« Reply #59 on: October 20, 2018, 07:56:28 PM »
OK. Here we go fellows.
If You want something to worry about, This is it.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leveraged-loans-cov-lite-central-banks-2018-10

"‘If you want to worry about something … this is it’: Central banks and investors are sounding the alarm on a corner of the debt market that's suddenly over $US1 trillion in size"
Interesting and depressing, and on that note its off to bed I go...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

 

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