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Offline Eddie

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Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« on: September 20, 2018, 09:46:00 AM »
So, pursuant to our conversation yesterday, I saw this headline on ZH this morning. Now I like ZH, because they post a lot of good economic articles and good market articles too. But they try to panic the markets to make their short-selling clients happy.

Like the macro economist whose initials are BS (how unfortunate is that?), they tend to exaggerate things when it suits them, which is really, really often.



The Dollar Is Dumping As Bond Rout Spreads

And they prove it, right? The chart doesn't lie.



Hmmm. Or does it? Here's the long term dollar chart.

Screen Shot 2018 09 20 at 11 05 12 AM
Screen Shot 2018 09 20 at 11 05 12 AM

Ho hum. Call me when we reach the 2014 level. Back when markets were collapsing, right? What you say? Markets weren't even collapsing when the USD was in the toilet in 2014?


Here's a link to the whole Chicken Little article for anyone who wants to read it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-20/dollar-dumping-bond-rout-spreads






« Last Edit: September 20, 2018, 09:52:03 AM by Eddie »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 11:35:57 AM »
ZH, wisely, seems to be reading my stuff.

Not really, but It looks like somebody with more street cred than me pointed out the same thing. File this under "later, same day".





Trader Warns: "Don't Invest Based On Your View Of Donald Trump"

by Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/20/2018 - 12:05

As  we noted earlier, the dollar is dumping this morning:



But while it is trading poorly, the dollar most certainly has yet to break down in any definitive manner, holding at its ECB-range lows for now...



As former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow points out, the most you can say is it currently sits near the bottom of a range that has trapped it for several months.

Via Bloomberg,

The way markets are trading the last several days and the revised projections for where the currency is going that are being issued left and right, you would think it has already imploded. It certainly could, yet if there is one lesson traders seem unable to learn is that this has been a very tough environment to count your profits before they actually materialize.

If anything, the members of the FOMC are getting more united behind continuing the steady and gradual pattern of rate hikes. Yet, somehow, people want to believe that other central banks will out-hawk them. That is patently absurd. Was there anything you heard out of the ECB or BOJ to suggest we should be expecting thunder and lightening?

Even when the Norges Bank hiked today, it was accompanied with dovish forward guidance. Unlucky for all those out there who were positioning for them to be just getting started. And the SNB sure didnít change its tune when it pointed out that the franc remains highly valued and that while the Swiss economy is doing well ďat the momentĒ, they expect growth to slow in the second half of the year.

Tariffs and trade restrictions are properly assumed to be threats to the global economy. But the key word here is global. The assumption that the dollar will take the hit if things get worse is emotion speaking, not analysis. Those thinking the FOMC might use trade as a reason to slow down or stop havenít looked at the relative strength of the economic numbers being posted. Oddly enough, those calling for the dollar to fall hard seem to believe it goes down under any tariff scenario. If so, it doesnít belong in the calculus.

We spend an awful lot of time debating where the U.S. neutral rate lies and whether that will be a line-in-the-sand barrier to hikes above it. Dollar traders arenít focusing on what short-end fixed income investors are clearly zoned in on. Which is that weíre beginning to see more and more research suggesting the neutral rate may be higher than previously surmised.



And more than a few comments from the latest Fed conference in Boston were that rates may need to be allowed to rise above it for a period of time. Since then the two-year Treasury yield is up 17 basis points. Compare that to bunds where comparable yields are about 5 basis points less negative. Yet the euro is higher by a big figure and people are more bullish.



Emerging markets are trying to stage a rally. Considering how far they have fallen, you could say they are entitled. Itís important to see if they can sustain any sort of rally. Maybe they have found a bottom, but thatís a big assumption to make. All you can conclude if you are trying the long side is you know where your stop should be.

Be long or be short, as you see fit. But make sure you have a reason for it beyond liking or not liking the players involved.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-20/trader-warns-dont-invest-based-your-view-donald-trump
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Offline RE

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 08:57:59 PM »
ZH, wisely, seems to be reading my stuff.

Not really, but It looks like somebody with more street cred than me pointed out the same thing. File this under "later, same day".



At least one of the Tyler Durdens lurks on the Diner.  I have noted on several occasions when a day or two after we post something, an article on the same topic or with a similar Headline to what we use shows up there.

However, I no longer even check on ZH anymore for stories.  The non-stop Trump-Humping through the election was the final straw.  Between their posting up Jimbo Quinn's  Fourth Turning cock sucking of Neil Howe and Brandon"Lexington & Concord" Smith's wacky conspiracy theories, the Gold Shilling and of course that truly vomit inducing commentariat I was already unable to read anything more than headlines there.  That site used to be pretty good back from about 2008 to 2011.  Gone straight to hell ever since.

Anyhow, I have been pointing out for years that the Dollar is not going to crash before the subsidiary currencies crash.  This is CFS, you don't need to be a Genius Quant to figure this one out.  I will also say the Swissie is the most over-valued piece of dogshit currencies out there.

RE
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Offline Agent Graves

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2018, 02:25:43 AM »
ZH, wisely, seems to be reading my stuff.

Not really, but It looks like somebody with more street cred than me pointed out the same thing. File this under "later, same day".



At least one of the Tyler Durdens lurks on the Diner.  I have noted on several occasions when a day or two after we post something, an article on the same topic or with a similar Headline to what we use shows up there.

However, I no longer even check on ZH anymore for stories.  The non-stop Trump-Humping through the election was the final straw.  Between their posting up Jimbo Quinn's  Fourth Turning cock sucking of Neil Howe and Brandon"Lexington & Concord" Smith's wacky conspiracy theories, the Gold Shilling and of course that truly vomit inducing commentariat I was already unable to read anything more than headlines there.  That site used to be pretty good back from about 2008 to 2011.  Gone straight to hell ever since.

Anyhow, I have been pointing out for years that the Dollar is not going to crash before the subsidiary currencies crash.  This is CFS, you don't need to be a Genius Quant to figure this one out.  I will also say the Swissie is the most over-valued piece of dogshit currencies out there.

RE

If 'subsidiary currencies' are those that need to settle trade in USD, then it seems likely the USD crashes when the bypassing already underway reaches a tipping point.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 02:50:04 AM by Agent Graves »
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Offline RE

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 04:38:25 AM »

If 'subsidiary currencies' are those that need to settle trade in USD, then it seems likely the USD crashes when the bypassing already underway reaches a tipping point.

Subsidiary Currencies are any currencies being valued by the BIS in Switzerland.  They're not being bypassed, at least not very effectively.  The clearing system set up by the Chinese and Ruskies is very small in comparison, I doubt they clear even 1% of the trades the BIS and SWIFT does.  They got a long way to go to take down that House of Cards and build their own.

RE
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 05:35:36 AM »
The misunderstanding that is being perpetuated with respects to the dollar "crashing" has to do with several things.

In order to get to the conclusion that certain players, including the "gold-is-the-only-money" crowd, and the "the world is de-dollarizing" crowd, you have to ignore some things and concentrate on just one thing or another. When you look at the big picture, the "dollar-will-crash-soon" scare story is not as exciting.

There are huge, huge amounts of capital in the world and even in a deflationary collapse, that's still going to be the case. The price of assets can go up and down, but tangible assets and cash will still exist. When bubbles pop, it's bullish for the safest liquid assets. Russia and China and EM's are lacking in safe liquid assets.

They are wisely building liquid assets, like gold, like stronger bond markets.....but in the clear light of day, any hedge fund manager knows if he puts money in Russia he is at Putin's whim, and if he puts money in China, he's at the whim of Xi and the top Party apparatchiks. No amount of gold reserves will change that. Liquid assets in Russia and China are never going to be safe assets.

So the money has to go to US bonds when the financial shit hits the fan. The only asset that might compete is gold, and that asset is not an easy one to trade in, comparatively speaking...and with all the bankster manips, it has lost some of its luster, because it at least has the APPEARANCE of being rather volatile.

Some capital flows to London, of course, and Germany , and Japan, and even Switzerland. But they are not the deepest pool, compared to US bonds.

As I have pointed out, the second largest bond market in the world, behind UST's is not even a foreign market. It's the US mortgage-backed securities market. The US isn't just number one in bonds, they are number one and number two.  Japan is number three, and China trails at 4th.

China's bond market is owned more than 98% by Chinese. China has strict capital controls. The idea that the world's capital managers will suddenly pour money into China at some point is highly suspect. It's going to take more than gold reserves to make China attractive to bond holders, who are far more worried about the "return of their money" than the return ON their money.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 05:50:25 AM by Eddie »
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Offline Agent Graves

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2018, 06:24:59 AM »

If 'subsidiary currencies' are those that need to settle trade in USD, then it seems likely the USD crashes when the bypassing already underway reaches a tipping point.

Subsidiary Currencies are any currencies being valued by the BIS in Switzerland.  They're not being bypassed, at least not very effectively.  The clearing system set up by the Chinese and Ruskies is very small in comparison, I doubt they clear even 1% of the trades the BIS and SWIFT does.  They got a long way to go to take down that House of Cards and build their own.

RE

Thread title is only about the death of the USD. Last I heard,' petroyuan' was at about 15% of world oil settlement, and its not their style to do it all at once. There are many other countries/subsidiaries making arrangements between each other bypassing USD, even if its only 1% now, its only going to grow.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 06:34:44 AM by Agent Graves »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2018, 06:31:40 AM »
ZH, wisely, seems to be reading my stuff.

Not really, but It looks like somebody with more street cred than me pointed out the same thing. File this under "later, same day".



At least one of the Tyler Durdens lurks on the Diner.  I have noted on several occasions when a day or two after we post something, an article on the same topic or with a similar Headline to what we use shows up there.

However, I no longer even check on ZH anymore for stories.  The non-stop Trump-Humping through the election was the final straw.  Between their posting up Jimbo Quinn's  Fourth Turning cock sucking of Neil Howe and Brandon"Lexington & Concord" Smith's wacky conspiracy theories, the Gold Shilling and of course that truly vomit inducing commentariat I was already unable to read anything more than headlines there.  That site used to be pretty good back from about 2008 to 2011.  Gone straight to hell ever since.

Anyhow, I have been pointing out for years that the Dollar is not going to crash before the subsidiary currencies crash.  This is CFS, you don't need to be a Genius Quant to figure this one out.  I will also say the Swissie is the most over-valued piece of dogshit currencies out there.

RE

The Swiss own the most gold per capita of any country in the world, and they have a long history of stable financial markets, which haven't even been disrupted by two World Wars.  The Swiss franc, as a safe haven currency, is probably not going out of style.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2018, 06:50:20 AM »

If 'subsidiary currencies' are those that need to settle trade in USD, then it seems likely the USD crashes when the bypassing already underway reaches a tipping point.

Subsidiary Currencies are any currencies being valued by the BIS in Switzerland.  They're not being bypassed, at least not very effectively.  The clearing system set up by the Chinese and Ruskies is very small in comparison, I doubt they clear even 1% of the trades the BIS and SWIFT does.  They got a long way to go to take down that House of Cards and build their own.

RE

Thread title is only about the death of the USD. Last I heard,' petroyuan' was at about 15% of world oil settlement, and its not their style to do it all at once. There are many other countries/subsidiaries making arrangements between each other bypassing USD, even if its only 1% now, its only going to grow.

Even the "de-dollarization" by petroyuan is way overstated by the doomer press. The US controls more than 30% of oil production currently, with it's own production and it's proxies. None of that oil is about to be cleared in anything but USD's. Failure to comply will result in US military intervention, you can count on that.

Besides Russia, the only really good source  of oil for the petroyuan is Iran. Iran is squarely in the US crosshairs, and if the Israeli proxies don't nuke them, they're gonna run slap out of water for their mushrooming population of Islamists anyway. One way or another, the West is going to drink their milkshake.
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Offline Agent Graves

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2018, 07:21:53 AM »

If 'subsidiary currencies' are those that need to settle trade in USD, then it seems likely the USD crashes when the bypassing already underway reaches a tipping point.

Subsidiary Currencies are any currencies being valued by the BIS in Switzerland.  They're not being bypassed, at least not very effectively.  The clearing system set up by the Chinese and Ruskies is very small in comparison, I doubt they clear even 1% of the trades the BIS and SWIFT does.  They got a long way to go to take down that House of Cards and build their own.

RE

Thread title is only about the death of the USD. Last I heard,' petroyuan' was at about 15% of world oil settlement, and its not their style to do it all at once. There are many other countries/subsidiaries making arrangements between each other bypassing USD, even if its only 1% now, its only going to grow.

Even the "de-dollarization" by petroyuan is way overstated by the doomer press. The US controls more than 30% of oil production currently, with it's own production and it's proxies. None of that oil is about to be cleared in anything but USD's. Failure to comply will result in US military intervention, you can count on that.

Besides Russia, the only really good source  of oil for the petroyuan is Iran. Iran is squarely in the US crosshairs, and if the Israeli proxies don't nuke them, they're gonna run slap out of water for their mushrooming population of Islamists anyway. One way or another, the West is going to drink their milkshake.

Thats the disorderly demise of the dollar, by sunken carriers and bombed bases, with war reparation in water from North Carolina.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2018, 07:35:31 AM »
That's a reasonable expectation, I think. Resource wars until there isn't enough energy left to fight over.
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Offline azozeo

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The Banks Have No Money and the Government Doesnít Enforce Laws
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2018, 12:42:49 PM »

The United States Banks and banks worldwide have had their liquidity reduced down to ZERO. Think about that for a moment, how does that effect you? You may still be able to get money out of the ATM, write checks, and pay bills online, but how? The fact that weíre still able to conduct business, as if nothing has happened, is a witness to the fraudulence of the entire system.

How is that possible?


https://projectspeak.net/18-september-2018-1219
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You donít know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Banks Have No Money and the Government Doesnít Enforce Laws
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2018, 03:28:13 PM »

The United States Banks and banks worldwide have had their liquidity reduced down to ZERO. Think about that for a moment, how does that effect you? You may still be able to get money out of the ATM, write checks, and pay bills online, but how? The fact that weíre still able to conduct business, as if nothing has happened, is a witness to the fraudulence of the entire system.

How is that possible?


https://projectspeak.net/18-september-2018-1219

By smoking crack?  This site is complete bullshit.
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Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Rumors of the Death Of the USD Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2018, 05:43:08 PM »
Boy that is some  concentrated Cray Cray for a dark and stormy Friday night!
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

 

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