AuthorTopic: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World  (Read 7967 times)

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #285 on: April 12, 2019, 08:19:59 AM »
My crypto portfolio is just about complete.

The only thing I intend to change now is to add a bit more Cardano (ADA).

There is a definite limit on how much I intend to risk in this market.  Too many uncertainties....not having to do with the utility of blockchain (not at all), but rather with whether banks will decide to declare war on crypto (which will kill the rally and mute the prospects going forward).

The other wild card is whether China might outlaw crypto mining (interesting since they have allowed their entrepreneurs to dominate that activity to the exclusion of most of the rest of the world). It is up for consideration, although I doubt it happens soon...but maybe later. Even an announcement of future curtailment might be a hit on bitcoin, and right now the whole market is dependent on bitcoin staying strong here.

The portfolio today is roughly 45% XRP, 20% TRX, 17% LTC, 9% VET, 4% NEXO and 5% ADA.

All coins are staked in some fashion or on deposit and collecting interest...with the exception of the new Cardano (ADA) position, which should be able to be staked very soon perhaps within a couple of weeks.

I might not update this thread for a while. I have a 3 year time horizon, and I expect to try to get shaken out during the next several months, I do intend to be out of cryptos by late 2021 unless I can cash out and meet my goals without cleaning out the whole stash.

Maybe not the best plan, but it's MY plan, and I'm sticking to it unless something big changes.

Not financial advice, blah, blah.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online azozeo

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #286 on: April 12, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
My crypto portfolio is just about complete.

The only thing I intend to change now is to add a bit more Cardano (ADA).

There is a definite limit on how much I intend to risk in this market.  Too many uncertainties....not having to do with the utility of blockchain (not at all), but rather with whether banks will decide to declare war on crypto (which will kill the rally and mute the prospects going forward).

The other wild card is whether China might outlaw crypto mining (interesting since they have allowed their entrepreneurs to dominate that activity to the exclusion of most of the rest of the world). It is up for consideration, although I doubt it happens soon...but maybe later. Even an announcement of future curtailment might be a hit on bitcoin, and right now the whole market is dependent on bitcoin staying strong here.

The portfolio today is roughly 45% XRP, 20% TRX, 17% LTC, 9% VET, 4% NEXO and 5% ADA.

All coins are staked in some fashion or on deposit and collecting interest...with the exception of the new Cardano (ADA) position, which should be able to be staked very soon perhaps within a couple of weeks.

I might not update this thread for a while. I have a 3 year time horizon, and I expect to try to get shaken out during the next several months, I do intend to be out of cryptos by late 2021 unless I can cash out and meet my goals without cleaning out the whole stash.

Maybe not the best plan, but it's MY plan, and I'm sticking to it unless something big changes.

Not financial advice, blah, blah.


Does your tax guy ding you extra for all this tulip bulb nonsense ?
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why youíre here. Youíre here because you know something. What you know you canít explain, but you feel it. Youíve felt it your entire life, that thereís something wrong with the world.
You donít know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #287 on: April 13, 2019, 09:29:49 AM »
My crypto portfolio is just about complete.

The only thing I intend to change now is to add a bit more Cardano (ADA).

There is a definite limit on how much I intend to risk in this market.  Too many uncertainties....not having to do with the utility of blockchain (not at all), but rather with whether banks will decide to declare war on crypto (which will kill the rally and mute the prospects going forward).

The other wild card is whether China might outlaw crypto mining (interesting since they have allowed their entrepreneurs to dominate that activity to the exclusion of most of the rest of the world). It is up for consideration, although I doubt it happens soon...but maybe later. Even an announcement of future curtailment might be a hit on bitcoin, and right now the whole market is dependent on bitcoin staying strong here.

The portfolio today is roughly 45% XRP, 20% TRX, 17% LTC, 9% VET, 4% NEXO and 5% ADA.

All coins are staked in some fashion or on deposit and collecting interest...with the exception of the new Cardano (ADA) position, which should be able to be staked very soon perhaps within a couple of weeks.

I might not update this thread for a while. I have a 3 year time horizon, and I expect to try to get shaken out during the next several months, I do intend to be out of cryptos by late 2021 unless I can cash out and meet my goals without cleaning out the whole stash.

Maybe not the best plan, but it's MY plan, and I'm sticking to it unless something big changes.

Not financial advice, blah, blah.


Does your tax guy ding you extra for all this tulip bulb nonsense ?

Right now it's kinda complicated, but as with any asset, until you cash out, you don't make gains....so you don't pay tax. I'm not trading much (just a tiny amount because it's technically unavoidable) my strategy is to HOLD, aka hodl, for about 3 years. So I will pay the tax they agree on by then, assuming I actually do have gains.

I am trying to buy enough to pay me and the taxman at the exit. You always have to figure tax.

For somebody who is WAY ahead (crypto billionaires), the way it works now, anyway, it might be a reasonable strategy to borrow cash against crypto and spend borrowed money. People do it. You don't pay tax on borrowed money.

Taxes are a  definite wild card in all this, Tax law has to be straightened out.

What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #288 on: April 13, 2019, 10:15:56 AM »
A good XRP video by my mentor Susie

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/zhr46IKpHrs&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/zhr46IKpHrs&fs=1</a>



I've looked at every video ever made on XRP price  (well maybe not all, but all the reality based ones) and my current view is that right now, XRP price should be about 5 bucks, based on an assumption that (a) XRP value is at LEAST equal to BTC...and (b) that the actual circulating supply is almost exactly 1000X greater. So if BTC=$5K.....then XRP is worth $5...right now. A very simple back-of-the-napkin valuation, but easy to understand and hard to debunk, imho.

For those inclined to arithmetic:


Messari estimate of circulating supply: 15.4B XRP.......17.5M BTC . That gives a multiplier of 880.

15.4B/17.5M = 880

On a BTC price of $5000 that gives $5.68, actually.

5000/880 = 5.68

I don't agree that total supply future available should play , at this time, in this estimate . I think that's a mistake actually. It's an assumption I'm willing to make.  Let's say that much, anyway.





So, I would NOT be surprised to see a rapid appreciation to the $5 level as soon as the mainstream financial houses are happy that we have regulatory clarity.

And yes, in a broad bull run that takes BTC  up 10X, I'd expect XRP to go up 10X too. Five bucks to 50 bucks. Because we are not going to be (my educated guess, anyway) at the point where adoption is the primary driver of price in the coming bull. It's coming too soon. It will be a bitcoin driven rally, just like the previous ones....perhaps the LAST crypto rally that is so correlated to BTC.

Adoption of XRP (my personal thesis, recently developed) will cause the BTC/XRP correlation to break down AFTER  the coming rally...that will come, and the long term hodlrs will finally be really vindicated, but I expect THAT in 5-8 years, based on a 4 year market cycle, with a bear market happening again before XRP becomes the dominant crypto due to its use as a valuable currency for a variety of uses.

I'm saying this here and now, after studying cryptos for my own education in a serious way for half a year.....it IS a price prediction, one I'm now very comfortable with, and so I won't be speculating on price for a while. I'm putting this up here, deliberately taking a chance on being wrong and letting anyone who reads this in a year or five years have a good laugh. I'm doing that because if I am at least somewhat correct in my view, that perhaps my  WAG (wild ass guess) will get at least the same level of respect as those who divine price using puzzles and listening to bears.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Online azozeo

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #289 on: April 13, 2019, 12:04:08 PM »
My crypto portfolio is just about complete.

The only thing I intend to change now is to add a bit more Cardano (ADA).

There is a definite limit on how much I intend to risk in this market.  Too many uncertainties....not having to do with the utility of blockchain (not at all), but rather with whether banks will decide to declare war on crypto (which will kill the rally and mute the prospects going forward).

The other wild card is whether China might outlaw crypto mining (interesting since they have allowed their entrepreneurs to dominate that activity to the exclusion of most of the rest of the world). It is up for consideration, although I doubt it happens soon...but maybe later. Even an announcement of future curtailment might be a hit on bitcoin, and right now the whole market is dependent on bitcoin staying strong here.

The portfolio today is roughly 45% XRP, 20% TRX, 17% LTC, 9% VET, 4% NEXO and 5% ADA.

All coins are staked in some fashion or on deposit and collecting interest...with the exception of the new Cardano (ADA) position, which should be able to be staked very soon perhaps within a couple of weeks.

I might not update this thread for a while. I have a 3 year time horizon, and I expect to try to get shaken out during the next several months, I do intend to be out of cryptos by late 2021 unless I can cash out and meet my goals without cleaning out the whole stash.

Maybe not the best plan, but it's MY plan, and I'm sticking to it unless something big changes.

Not financial advice, blah, blah.


Does your tax guy ding you extra for all this tulip bulb nonsense ?

Right now it's kinda complicated, but as with any asset, until you cash out, you don't make gains....so you don't pay tax. I'm not trading much (just a tiny amount because it's technically unavoidable) my strategy is to HOLD, aka hodl, for about 3 years. So I will pay the tax they agree on by then, assuming I actually do have gains.

I am trying to buy enough to pay me and the taxman at the exit. You always have to figure tax.

For somebody who is WAY ahead (crypto billionaires), the way it works now, anyway, it might be a reasonable strategy to borrow cash against crypto and spend borrowed money. People do it. You don't pay tax on borrowed money.

Taxes are a  definite wild card in all this, Tax law has to be straightened out.


Thank you for sharing. I wasn't being a smart ass here.

So cyber has the same rules as physical, it's conversion & not taxable.
I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why youíre here. Youíre here because you know something. What you know you canít explain, but you feel it. Youíve felt it your entire life, that thereís something wrong with the world.
You donít know what it is but its there, like a splinter in your mind

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #290 on: April 16, 2019, 06:49:20 PM »
This is a great explanation of crypto for someone who wants to understand what makes it valuable as a financial asset.
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/gtqs2-kRVQ8&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/gtqs2-kRVQ8&fs=1</a>


« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 06:52:47 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #291 on: April 23, 2019, 10:54:26 AM »
Time for a brief crypto update.

Bitcoin is slowly climbing the stairs out of the basement. The rest of the popular cryptos are following it up, albeit unevenly at the moment.

XRP is without a doubt the most beat-down, bedraggled digital asset of all, the red-headed stepchild of the cryptosphere. I think it's a screaming buy.

So why isn't it moving, you ask?

I think it's because the big investors who would be most likely to accumulate it are mostly waiting for regulatory guidance. Nobody is now afraid that Bitcoin is going to be classified as a security by the SEC or Congress. But XRP is still in a grey area...The banks, who should own it, are held back until the SEC or some US regulatory body weighs in. The retail hodlrs, the patient longs, are mostly all in already, and they don't move markets anyway. But I stand by my valuation of $5 current value, just based on Bitcoin as a yardstick. Current price is below 33 cents.

The institutional money coming into cryptos right now seems to be oriented toward Bitcoin...and even more so toward the exchange coins like BNB (these can be valued with a revenue model, which makes them unique in the space.) I liked BNB at $6, but at 24 bucks it looks way pricey. It might have more legs though.  Kucoin and Huobi are alternatives in the same category, that look better here to me.

All my pre-mined alt coins are lagging, right now. It's to be expected, Later in the cycle they will no doubt have their day. I'm close to even, maybe a little ahead these days, but not enough to brag about. But I remain convinced that the bottom is in, and that the $3400 Bitcoin level is not likely to be broached again in this market cycle. The good gains are probably well over a year away, though.

TRX is languishing. VET, which was doing better than average, is taking a siesta. VET is a hell of a story, though, and in time might prove to be a better bet than XRP. Since my funds are not unlimited, I am tempted to rebalance here.....but I'm not so far. Just not adding to current positions, I am diluting my XRP by buying more alt coins. I am tempted by a new one ICX, which is a Korean project that is doing good things but is still way more than 90% off the ATH. At this point I am planning to keep adding some to my portfolio, but nothing huge.

I bought some ADA (Cardano) in anticipation of their yearly summit, but they announced nothing of importance and the coin has taken a hit. I was hoping they'd announce the beginning of staking to let the hodlrs participate in the POS protocol and get a return for it. Not yet, it seems. It's my only coin that makes nothing at all. I don't like that.

Litecoin, my bitcoin proxy ( a hedge, more or less) has done okay but is currently undergoing a correction after a big up move. It has a lot of room to run, though, and it should follow BTC pretty closely. I bought a little on the pullback to either hodl or trade, whatever turns out to look better. Probably I'll trade it and get into a little ICX.

Celsius is still making interest payments. The return on TRX dropped, and I am out of the staking pool I was participating in, and looking for a better one. My VET is still accumulating VeThor tokens. I'm up to nearly 50K of those.Not worth much now, but it will find a market price at some future point. VeChain continues to make good progress with their business plan for supply chain management.

Nexo, which I bought early on, only to watch it fall a lot, seems to have bottomed and is slowly rising.Their fiat lending business plan is solid.

I still look for an ugly retest of BTC $3400. That might be the best buying opportunity for several years. Not sure when it will come. Probably over the summer, but maybe sooner.



What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #292 on: May 03, 2019, 06:55:23 AM »

There is a potential crash situation developing in real time this week I'll try to explain it, but it requires an understanding of how markets work to understand fully, and I am just starting to get clued myself.

Okay...here we go. The biggest exchange in the world right now is in Hong Kong, and the company is Bitfinex. Well backed, makes a ton of money. They came up with the world's first and hitherto most popular stablecoin, Tether.

Tether is the problem. So, I explained this before, but stablecoins are like a USD proxy....indexed to the USD. Very convenient. A way to have assets on the exchange with no crypto volatility exposure. The problem is the counter-party risk, which in this case is Bitfinex.

Bitfinex tried to clam they had 100% dollar cash in the bank to collateralize Tether, but they weren't transparent and it was questioned. This has been going on for months and months. Other, safer stablecoins have been invented elsewhere, but Tether is still number one, and it still has all the market share and all the liquidity.

New York State regulators have been on Bitfinex's ass, and so, since I've been in cryptos, USAnians aren't even allowed to open an account there. It hasn't hurt their business or affected Terher until this week.

It has been revealed that Bitfinex actually only had 74% collateralization, as a result of the ongoing attacks on Bitfinex by the regulators (this looks like a political thing to me, a backdoor attack on crypto, maybe). The regulators claim US money  has still been accepted by Bitfinex, but I'm not sure that's even true..

Now people (rich people) are trying to take large Bitcoin and Ethereum positions off the Bitfinex exchange, and so now Bitcoin is back up over $6000 on Bitfinex. That's a $200 premium over the price on the other exchanges. It looks like a major arbitrage opportunity.

But as someone more knowledgeable than I am explained it to me,

" if we look at the USDT trading pairs on all other exchanges they all report a 5% premium of $1.05. So to move money to Bitfinex you pay a 5% premium getting into a USDT position to transfer and try and buy an asset 5% higher in valuation to then move back and sell on a different exchange. Itís a wash and super risky given Bitfinex could pull the plug on withdrawals at any time. "

Meanwhile, the market price of BTC has crept up on less than reassuring volume all week, following the Bitfinex artificial premium.

This morning, the volume I was hoping to see anyway back on the 1st of the month seems to be coming in.

With the short squeeze and the action on Bitfinex, the price of Bitcoin might go parabolic and crash.

Given the heavy correlation the entire crypto space has with BTC, the alt coins I own might go parabolic if this keeps up.

But it could come down like a house of cards, if Bitfinex locks up.  Knowledgeable people I talk to say the situation with Bitfinex is at least somewhat analogous to the famous Mt. Gox crash.

If we do have a crash, you heard it from me before it happened.

You're welcome.

Update:

I'm told that the arbitrage on Bitfinex is real and possible because there is a BTC/USD pair and you can avoid Tether and still get the premium.

I'm not sure that make the situation any better. I might, in fact, make it worse.



« Last Edit: May 03, 2019, 08:05:55 AM by Eddie »
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Offline Eddie

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Re: How Blockchain Will Rule Your World
« Reply #293 on: May 03, 2019, 02:08:37 PM »
My mentor's take on the Bitfinex situation.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/GzfvGEmd21s&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/GzfvGEmd21s&fs=1</a>
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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