AuthorTopic: The Thucydides Trap  (Read 73 times)

Offline Eddie

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The Thucydides Trap
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:37:15 PM »
Another thing I ran across today.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/wciXE0NVi44&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/wciXE0NVi44&fs=1</a>
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline AJ

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Re: The Thucydides Trap
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2019, 04:15:36 AM »
Another thing I ran across today.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/wciXE0NVi44&fs=1" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/wciXE0NVi44&fs=1</a>
Very interesting. :emthup: War with China would seem inevitable in a BAU world. Not so certain in a Collapse destined world. China is facing its own economic problems that might suggest a wag the dog scenario. And with Trump who knows what could happen. If a climate catastrophe started unfolding (sudden increase in temp, or collapsed ag harvest) would any country have the focus to start any kind of sustained war. One of JMG's book had the U.S. losing a limited war with China. But I think that finding historical presidents (even if it is Thucydides) and applying it to the future in the face of a NON BAU world is speculation that would seem to be unsupported by facts. IMHO :evil4:
AJ
Nullis in Verba

Offline Eddie

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Re: The Thucydides Trap
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2019, 05:47:12 AM »
The problem with that is we ALL do live in a BAU world, and regardless of the evidence that things will change in radical ways going forward,  we aren't there today, and the timeline on all that is highly speculative.

BAU will persist until it doesn't. There is plenty of time to have another world war. As much as that possibility sickens me to think about, it bears consideration.
 
I posted the video because, like Graham Allison, I think it's a good idea to make more regular people understand this concept. 16 times in history we had this problem. 75% of the time it resulted in war. An educational message worth spreading.

How many people understand this stuff? Not many. How many people know what is meant by Triffin's Paradox, for instance? The general population know more about Kim Kardashian's butt implants.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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