AuthorTopic: A Word About the Changing Macroeconomic Environment  (Read 501 times)

Offline Eddie

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A Word About the Changing Macroeconomic Environment
« on: June 26, 2019, 08:42:03 PM »
I just wanted to take a  minute or two to note that this month, I finally see some serious economic changes happening that are important to discuss.

For at least five years I've  been stubbornly contrarian against much of what has been predicted by most of the doomer prognosticators. But things are now changing and we might have a much different set of economic circumstance and I (we) might need to invest differently to deal with that.

Gold has broken out, after being rangebound for more than five years. That is significant,

The dollar has finally clearly turned down, and will probably be in some state of decline for maybe six more years, if cycles are true to  form. Brexit and the Europroblem can always make the dollar spike, but the trend now is down.

It might turn out that Trump's ham-handed dismantlement of our carefully crafted free trade policies of the last many years will lead to serious inflation.

The Fed has blinked, and some kind of easing is coming, which will juice the stock market, but the handwriting is on the wall. I expect we'll get through the election, but that the inevitable return to the mean for equities is coming soon after.

China is having banking liquidity problems. Deustchebank stock has been in decline for ten years and they're basically just TBTF so they're being zombified at the expense of everyone in Southern Europe and all the taxpayers in the Eurozone.

I think it will be good to be very deleveraged and liquid by 2021. The road ahead into old age looks bumpy for all of us.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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