AuthorTopic: Ciimate.....Just The Facts  (Read 1000 times)

Online Eddie

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #45 on: March 26, 2020, 07:04:05 PM »
I like Mallen Baker on climate change...haven't watched this one yet.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline cernunnos5

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #46 on: March 26, 2020, 07:10:25 PM »
Fast emergencies always take precedence -- in any community of any scale --  when a slower emergency is in the wings.

Right now, the novel coronavirus (and it's associated financial, economic and political troubles) is our fast emergency, and the New York Times made this especially true in the USA today when it reported that the USA is the new epicenter. 

Climate topics will be on the back burner for a few weeks or months, if not years, as we deal with our current fast emergency.

Luckily for Earth's biodiversity, the current fast emergency will have at least temporarily caused a downward arc in greenhouse emissions -- for now.

It's hard to live with many emergencies all at once!  Please take care of yourself and your family and neighbors!

I agree with you completely. Just thought this is a good addition to Eddie's stuff on climate change, maybe to watch as a break from all the coronavirus madness.

Perspective. I don't think the climate will be off peoples minds for very long.

The effects of this reduced carbon wont really be felt for about 30 years. Im sure at that point some paid denier will be saying, it stopped climbing so its a hoax.

In the short term, It was going to be real hot to start with. With all of the particulate and arysol  pollution out of the air, its going to get real fucking hot this year.

Increased drought, storms and hurricanes... with all first responders  rather busy with the Trump Virus... lets just say, if the power goes out...it aint coming back on for a long time.

And fire. Fire is my big fear. Enough so, we spent the money on a lighter weed wacker for MrsC5 to handle to keep the grasses low around the house. Hopefully it arrives from Amazon. I'm sure some amazon employee is thinking, why is this asshole wasting our time with lawncare products during an emergency. It was a last minute panic purchase because I realized my life depended on it. Fire bad.

That C5 is always a happy ray of sunshine. Why yes he is, Other C5. Yes he is.   :icon_sunny:  :o

Offline JRM

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #47 on: March 26, 2020, 07:33:22 PM »
I don't pretend to have a solid handle on the uncertainties of the "global dimming" phenomenon, but my impression is that it is tending to be exaggerated recently.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline K-Dog

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #48 on: March 26, 2020, 08:13:21 PM »
I found a new series Mallen Baker is doing on how to think about climate change. I'm very excited to see it all!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0QFUaiZX28&t=652s

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/a0QFUaiZX28" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/a0QFUaiZX28</a>

I have a lot of respect for Mallen but he can focus too much on climate change and miss the clusterfuck of overpopulation and resource depletion.  He did mention food and population once though.  The scientific method is a form of the one variable thinking Mallen was ranting about to some.  Peer review can become a religion.  Many climate change worrywarts think oil can be burned forever and that it can last forever.  Even though they understand CO2.  Go figure.  Most of us have only one step out of the cave.

I know more about climate models than he does.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:24:09 PM by K-Dog »
Under ideal conditions of temperature and pressure the organism will grow without limit.

Offline JRM

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #49 on: March 26, 2020, 08:25:13 PM »
I found a new series Mallen Baker is doing on how to think about climate change. I'm very excited to see it all!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0QFUaiZX28&t=652s

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/a0QFUaiZX28" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/a0QFUaiZX28</a>

I have a lot of respect for Mallen but he can focus too much on climate change and miss the clusterfuck of overpopulation and resource depletion.  Many climate change worrywarts think oil can be burned forever and that it can last forever.  Even though they understand CO2.  Go figure.  Most of us have only one step out of the cave.

I know more about climate models than he does.

Well, you have your Deep Systems Thinkers (whom are very rare) and your Shallow Systems Thinkers (which are a dime a dozen).  Deep Systems Thinkers attempt to understand how all of the interpenetrating, interconnected systems in the whole are functioning.  This task is actually quite impossible, since it is impossible to perform probability assessments at such a level of complexity (one with many known and unknown unknowns, etc.).

Deep Systems Thinkers are smarter about systems than Shallow Systems Thinkers, but since their "science" is intrinsically almost  impossible in predictive terms (because of the unknowns and the unknown unknowns), all the Deep Systems Thinkers can say at the end of the day (by the water cooler) is that our artificial interventions into natural systems should be as resilient as possible. 

So far, the world has been ignoring such advice, which is why our artificial systems are the least resilient they have ever been.  Collapse is now inevitable, of course.  Because Shallow Systems Thinking is about as far as most "experts" can do.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:30:27 PM by JRM »
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline monsta666

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Re: Ciimate.....Just The Facts
« Reply #50 on: March 26, 2020, 09:13:11 PM »
Well, you have your Deep Systems Thinkers (whom are very rare) and your Shallow Systems Thinkers (which are a dime a dozen).  Deep Systems Thinkers attempt to understand how all of the interpenetrating, interconnected systems in the whole are functioning.  This task is actually quite impossible, since it is impossible to perform probability assessments at such a level of complexity (one with many known and unknown unknowns, etc.).

Deep Systems Thinkers are smarter about systems than Shallow Systems Thinkers, but since their "science" is intrinsically almost  impossible in predictive terms (because of the unknowns and the unknown unknowns), all the Deep Systems Thinkers can say at the end of the day (by the water cooler) is that our artificial interventions into natural systems should be as resilient as possible. 

So far, the world has been ignoring such advice, which is why our artificial systems are the least resilient they have ever been.  Collapse is now inevitable, of course.  Because Shallow Systems Thinking is about as far as most "experts" can do.

The climate change fallacy can be clearly seen in this pandemic crisis. As economies have effectively "shut down" due to social distancing one of the few positive outcomes is a noticeable decline in pollution levels. The last time such a decline happened was during the global financial crisis of 2008. What this tells you is economic activity is closely correlated to overall pollution. If the economy collapses then the climate change projections will not materialise. The inherent assumption made with most climate change models is that BAU will continue and so the limiting factor to continuing growth would be excess pollution levels. If you believe this premise then the models used will be accurate. If however you think energy or resource depletion will be limiting factors or perhaps some other blackswan event then the models do not hold up.

Still, despite the possibly wrong shortcomings and likely inaccurate projections some utlity can be found using these models. You can simply argue that if energy, resource levels were no constraint and there is no blackswan event then this event will happen. Another important note for system thinkers is that all complex are inherently unpredictable. Anyone who can say something with absolute certainity will be talking from a position of ignorance. All you can really do in any systems based prediction is make likely outcomes with certain probablities but the assumptions clearly be made. How many collapse blogger predicted the death of capitalism with the 2008 financial crisis yet BAU continued? Who in the collapse community predicted that fracking and oil production would carry on until 2020 or even the financial system will last that long? Not many. So it is important to acknowledge some facts are simply unknowable and you need to be humble (and not have the ego the size of the universe which is a recurring with collapse bloggers). This means you need to understand that anything you say is simply an educated guess. General outcomes can be made but the timing and pace is exceedingly difficult to predict. Predicting definitive outcomes is a fools game.

 

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