AuthorTopic: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus  (Read 4826 times)

Offline RE

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🦠 Gearing Up For Coronavirus Self-Defense
« Reply #120 on: April 05, 2020, 02:02:07 AM »
Now UP on GEI!

posted on 03 April 2020

Gearing Up For Coronavirus Self-Defense

by Reverse Engineer, Doomstead Diner


John B. Lounsbury Ph.D. CFP

Managing Editor Econintersect.com

Senior Contributor TheStreet.com

Highly ranked author Seeking Alpha

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Offline RE

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🦠 A $1.3 Trillion U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Imminent, and Inevitable
« Reply #121 on: April 05, 2020, 01:22:27 PM »
Sell your McMansions now, while you still can get out with your underwear still on.

RE

https://www.ccn.com/a-1-3-trillion-u-s-housing-market-crash-is-imminent-and-inevitable/

Published: April 4, 2020 6:00 PM UTC
A $1.3 Trillion U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Imminent, and Inevitable

The U.S. housing market could lose over a trillion dollars in value this year as the coronavirus pandemic rattles the economy.

Harsh Chauhan @techjunk13

U.S. housing demand is expected to plunge as the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold. | Image: Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

    The U.S. housing market could lose 4% of its value.
    Unemployment claims and layoffs would be a headwind.
    Demand is expected to fall off a cliff thanks to the coronavirus pandemic.

The U.S. housing market is going to be one of the biggest victims of the novel coronavirus pandemic as people lose jobs and the economy comes to a grinding halt. Housing bulls have already started pulling out of the market and it won’t be long before prices start going south.

Loading video

The latest readings from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index could be the market’s last hurrah. The economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak is about to wreck the market’s momentum and might cause the biggest price crash since the Great Recession.
U.S. housing market had a great January

According to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in the U.S. rose 3.9% annually in January. The jump outpaced December’s growth of 3.7% and was enough to outpace 2019’s overall home value growth of 3.4%.
Source: Twitter

The housing market got off to a great start in 2020 as price growth accelerated across key markets. Craig J. Lazzara, the head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote (via CNBC):

    As has been the case since mid-2019, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in January than they had done in December. Housing prices were particularly strong in the West and South, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.

But other analysts predict that January’s gain may be the last one that the housing market sees as the economic fallout of coronavirus takes hold.

Matthew Pointon of Capital Economics writes:

    We expect a peak-to-trough fall in prices of around 4% by early 2021, with values then flattening out for the rest of the year. Housing demand will see a sharp decline as unemployment hits record highs, and households are prevented from buying a home due to the shut down of large parts of the economy.

Pointon goes on to add that buyers won’t be willing to pay up for a house and that will lead to lower pricing.
Nearly $1.3 trillion of value could be wiped out

According to data from Zillow, the combined value of residential houses in the U.S. increased $1.1 trillion to $33.6 trillion in 2019. If home prices drop 4% through early 2021 as Pointon estimates, the housing market could end up losing $1.34 trillion of its value.

The conditions for such a crash are already in the making. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits spiked to a record-shattering 6.6 million for the week ended March 28.
Source: Twitter

These numbers are bad news for the U.S. housing market. They are a precursor to the lay-offs that the novel coronavirus pandemic could bring. The St. Louis Fed estimates that as many as 47 million Americans could be out of a job. This translates into an alarming unemployment rate of 32.1%.

As a result, the demand for housing is expected to fall. One estimate predicts a 35% annual drop in sales this spring as COVID-19 rattles the market.

    Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CCN.com.
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Offline monsta666

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Sell your McMansions now, while you still can get out with your underwear still on.

What during a pandemic? Also the mortgage market is in a deep freeze as banks (UK ones at least) are unwilling to handout mortgages so buyers will be scarce.

The issue with the mortgage market here is full valuations of the property cannot be made as it is not possible to conduct indoor inspections. As such banks can only make estimates of the likely value using secondary sources. Due to this limitation banks can only offer mortgages if buyers can provide 25% or even in some cases 40% deposits. In addition due to the mass job losses or reductions in income it will be harder for people to meet affordability criteria. For a house to sell you either have to wait a long time or reduce the asking price for your house. I can foresee some people being underwater. I do think the market for commercial properties will be particularly effected as many businesses will simply not make it and there won't be many people who can move into those spaces. THAT will be a big issue as there was already a lot of pressure on high street stores before this crisis. 

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #123 on: April 05, 2020, 02:14:00 PM »
Well I might be a litmus test for this then as I'm going to try to sell this spring... We shall see. If I only lose 4 percent of full value I will consider myself lucky... house have been paid off for a decade though I've been living here a long time and the area has at least doubled in value since I built... So not so worried.
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Offline RE

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #124 on: April 05, 2020, 02:50:59 PM »
Well I might be a litmus test for this then as I'm going to try to sell this spring... We shall see. If I only lose 4 percent of full value I will consider myself lucky... house have been paid off for a decade though I've been living here a long time and the area has at least doubled in value since I built... So not so worried.

Since it is paid off, it might be better to keep as a Rental Property.

RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #125 on: April 05, 2020, 03:33:55 PM »
Well I might be a litmus test for this then as I'm going to try to sell this spring... We shall see. If I only lose 4 percent of full value I will consider myself lucky... house have been paid off for a decade though I've been living here a long time and the area has at least doubled in value since I built... So not so worried.

Since it is paid off, it might be better to keep as a Rental Property.

RE

Ever been a landlord? It can be a real pain in the ass.
Did it once. Never again.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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Sell your McMansions now, while you still can get out with your underwear still on.

RE

////
As a result, the demand for housing is expected to fall. One estimate predicts a 35% annual drop in sales this spring as COVID-19 rattles the market.

So who's buying, again? Who's volunteering to catch that falling knife?
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline JRM

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #127 on: April 05, 2020, 04:09:47 PM »
I think the near future of real estate -- residential and commercial -- are likely to be a LOT more impacted (downwardly) than we tend yet to imagine.  The old real estate bubble from just before the '08 crash was blown out of all realistic proportion again just before the pandemic hit.  Not a time to "invest" in real estate!
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Offline luciddreams

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #128 on: April 05, 2020, 04:13:08 PM »
Haven't read the entire thread, but my situation may apply.

I'm still waiting on my taxes for 2019.  It's complicated because I had five months of independent contracting, the rest W2, and GM is all IC...still should have had the taxes back a month ago as we turned all info in the first of February. 

Anyways, we'll be financing a mobile home with Clayton homes.  Hopefully we can still do that.  I put down $1000 last month to lock in a deal where we get 10k off of our purchase with the local dealer.  I was told due to the fact that my credit is 760 I can do a no money down, no land as collateral finance. They said it would be about 6.5%.  I'm not about to sign a deal at 6.5% even with nothing down and no collateral. 

We'll see what the offer me.  If they offer anything.  But I've seen that apr for home buying is at an all time low.  As low as 3%.   

Offline RE

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BoJo gonna die?

RE

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/boris-johnson-admitted-hospital-coronavirus.html

The Slatest
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Admitted to Hospital for Coronavirus

By Daniel Politi
April 05, 20208:43 PM

Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the telephone to Queen Elizabeth II for her Weekly Audience during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic at 10 Downing Street on March 25, 2020 in London, England.
WPA Pool/Getty Images

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Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, was admitted to a hospital Sunday for tests as he continued to suffer symptoms 10 days after he was diagnosed with the coronavirus. The prime minister’s office characterized the admission to an undisclosed London hospital as a “precautionary step” and clarified that Johnson remains in charge of the government. The admission comes after persistent rumors that Johnson’s condition has been worsening.

Johnson, 55, is the first major government leader who is known to have contracted COVID-19. He has been in self-isolation since the diagnosis and has posted video messages on Twitter since then. His latest video came on Friday and Johnson looked tired as he revealed he still had a fever. “Although I’m feeling better and I’ve done my seven days of isolation, alas I still have one of the symptoms, a minor symptom, I still have a temperature,” he said.

Johnson’s fiancée, Carrie Symonds, who is pregnant, said she had been sick with coronavirus symptoms but was not tested. Symonds said in a tweet that she was now “on the mend.”

President Donald Trump commented on Johnson’s hospitalization during a news conference Sunday. “All Americans are praying for him,” Trump said. “He’s a friend of mine, he’s a great gentleman and a great leader, and as you know he went to the hospital today but I’m hopeful and sure that he’s going to be fine.”

The news of Johnson’s hospitalization came on the same day as a rare television address by Queen Elizabeth II in which she urged citizens to remain “united and resolute” in fighting against the virus. “We will succeed—and that success will belong to every one of us,” she said. “We should take comfort that while we may have more still to endure, better days will return.”

Around 48,000 people have been confirmed to have COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and almost 5,000 have died.
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Offline Eddie

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Sell your McMansions now, while you still can get out with your underwear still on.

RE

////
As a result, the demand for housing is expected to fall. One estimate predicts a 35% annual drop in sales this spring as COVID-19 rattles the market.

So who's buying, again? Who's volunteering to catch that falling knife?

Some few sellers will get lucky and be able to close a cash deal...if they're in a high demand, high income area. It might make some sense to list with a broker now, because prices will go down...probably bottom in a year, maybe.....that's typical.....but this isn't exactly typical. It could be a depression....or we could get a vaccine that works and things could come back, one more time.

I think it all depends on how long we have to stay locked down...the longer that is, then the worse it will be.....and the problem is that I see no real end in sight. No way a one month lockdown results in a good outcome for an area that has barely started up the death curve.

Full testing, antibody tests.......this has been the great failure.....we could have that now, if Trump weren't such a fool....but he is a fool...and it is what it is......pretty sucky.

 I don't think many traditional mortgage deals will close here over the next few months.  (meaning the US generally), for the kinds of technical reasons Monsta mentioned...and because ..in order to qualify for the loan......you have to show you can flow the cash to pay the mortgage....hard to do if you're out of work, even for a month or two.

For long term real estate investors it always makes sense to ride it out, unless your cash flow drops so low you're absolutely forced to deleverage......this is why I've preached low leverage all these years to anybody who would listen.

I'm less worried about my investment properties than my personal real estate.....for many years I've put a great deal of my discretionary income into 1st and 2nd homes, because it's tax advantaged, and because the responsibility of meeting the mortgages is a kind of forced savings.....of money that might otherwise end up getting split between the IRS and stupid consumer shit I don't need...... fancy cars and trips.

It is those non-investment properties, which I classify as luxuries (that fortunately do hold some value)...that are now eating me.....my monthly real estate nut is 60% personal real estate and only 40% goes to cover the investment mortgages......I do practice what I preach.....I am not heavily leveraged on the investment side.

You might remember me mentioning that in this market (Austin) rental rates didn't drop in 2008...not a penny. And I doubt they will drop this time, if we make any kind of recovery coming out of this on the other side. But people must go back to work...or get basic income..something.

Times like this are when cash savings and cash equivalents like government bonds will save your butt....I think I can hold out for a year or so.....but it will leaved me cash strapped...so I can forget about retiring anytime soon.

These waterfall drops absolutely kill weak markets, while strong markets have a tendency to bounce back. It has to do with the demographics of collapse.....collapse makes some geographic locations even more desirable, while others...out in fly-over country or in the rust belt....just never come back.
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Offline Eddie

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #131 on: April 06, 2020, 09:16:27 AM »
.  I put down $1000 last month to lock in a deal where we get 10k off of our purchase with the local dealer.  I was told due to the fact that my credit is 760 I can do a no money down, no land as collateral finance. They said it would be about 6.5%.  I'm not about to sign a deal at 6.5% even with nothing down and no collateral. 

We'll see what the offer me.  If they offer anything.  But I've seen that apr for home buying is at an all time low.  As low as 3%.

That's not a terrible deal. My experience is that mobile home builders generally want a lien on the land....which is what can get people in trouble....I think I'm paying over 6% on my last refi on the stead (made last year).....fortunately I made lots of extra payments when the interest was lower, so it's nearly paid off now. The last house I bought I had to pay 5.5% for 30 year money.

The good part of buying from a company like Clayton is that they own their own finance division and can basically do anything they want.

At a time like this, with good credit like you have, maybe they might go somewhat lower than 6.5%..but don't expect the moon. Their business model is based on catering to a high interest, high risk market..

How long is that 6.5% locked in for?  Will they give fixed interest for 10, 20, 30 years?  With the US now REALLY getting ready to print trillions and trillions....I would expect that if the country does recovery from COVID..... at some point, we might see serious inflation...which will favor long term debtors.

« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 09:23:08 AM by Eddie »
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Offline luciddreams

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Re: 🦠 Economic Effect of Coronavirus
« Reply #132 on: April 06, 2020, 02:11:32 PM »
.  I put down $1000 last month to lock in a deal where we get 10k off of our purchase with the local dealer.  I was told due to the fact that my credit is 760 I can do a no money down, no land as collateral finance. They said it would be about 6.5%.  I'm not about to sign a deal at 6.5% even with nothing down and no collateral. 

We'll see what the offer me.  If they offer anything.  But I've seen that apr for home buying is at an all time low.  As low as 3%.

That's not a terrible deal. My experience is that mobile home builders generally want a lien on the land....which is what can get people in trouble....I think I'm paying over 6% on my last refi on the stead (made last year).....fortunately I made lots of extra payments when the interest was lower, so it's nearly paid off now. The last house I bought I had to pay 5.5% for 30 year money.

The good part of buying from a company like Clayton is that they own their own finance division and can basically do anything they want.

At a time like this, with good credit like you have, maybe they might go somewhat lower than 6.5%..but don't expect the moon. Their business model is based on catering to a high interest, high risk market..

How long is that 6.5% locked in for?  Will they give fixed interest for 10, 20, 30 years?  With the US now REALLY getting ready to print trillions and trillions....I would expect that if the country does recovery from COVID..... at some point, we might see serious inflation...which will favor long term debtors.

I'm only locked in on the 10k discount right now.  Once I get my taxes back, which should have been weeks ago, I'll be able to turn in the app to Vanderbilt.  The local salesman that introduced me to the no land, no money down deal said it was currently around 6.5%, but that was a couple of weeks ago.  I paid 16k cash for the land.  My thinking is that I'll be better off securing the lowest interest rate possible.  That deal is for a fixed 30 year.  I want to get the lowest monthly payment possible.  My thinking is that if I get a low enough payment I can make double payments when times are good, but when they are bad I can stay above water.  Currently we are paying $1350 in rent for luxury loft apartments.  I'm hoping to finance right around 100k and be somewhere close to $800 a month.  Currently I'm still saving money paying the $1350 and that's just on my income.  Everything GM makes is gravy. 

I figure if I'm around $800 I can afford to make double payments.  A buddy of mine told me that you  can turn a 30 year into 15 by just making a double payment every January due to the nature of compound interest.  I'm going to have to drive truck for at least the next 12 years.  That timeline is based on my youngest son graduating from high school.  I'm hoping to have the home paid for before then because I'm going to have to save money to retire on.  I doubt that I will ever retire.  I figure if I'm lucky I can have everything paid for by the time my kids are grown.  Then maybe I can just do the bamboo hustle as a retirement plan. 

Offline monsta666

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Re: 🦠 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted to ICU
« Reply #133 on: April 06, 2020, 03:12:42 PM »
Condition must be getting serious for Boris. In the daily briefing today it was noted that the Conservative party no longer used the word mild to describe Boris's condition. Perhaps they knew something was up then? Still MP's outside the inner circle were quite shocked at this turn of events. 

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care as symptoms worsen



Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital after his coronavirus symptoms "worsened", Downing Street has said.

A spokesman said he was moved on the advice of his medical team and was receiving "excellent care".

Mr Johnson has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise "where necessary", the spokesman added.

The prime minister, 55, was admitted to hospital in London with "persistent symptoms" on Sunday evening.

The Queen has been kept informed about Mr Johnson's health by No 10, according to Buckingham Palace.

BBC political correspondent Chris Mason said the prime minister was given oxygen late on Monday afternoon, before being taken to intensive care.

A No 10 statement read: "The prime minister has been under the care of doctors at St Thomas' Hospital, in London, after being admitted with persistent symptoms of coronavirus.

"Over the course of [Monday] afternoon, the condition of the prime minister has worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he has been moved to the intensive care unit at the hospital."

It continued: "The PM is receiving excellent care, and thanks all NHS staff for their hard work and dedication."

Mr Raab said there was an "incredibly strong team spirit" behind the prime minister.

He added that he and his colleagues were making sure they implemented plans Mr Johnson had instructed them to deliver "as soon as possible".

"That's the way we'll bring the whole country through the coronavirus challenge," he said.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer described it as "terribly sad news".

"All the country's thoughts are with the prime minister and his family during this incredibly difficult time," he added.

Mr Johnson was initially taken to hospital for routine tests after testing positive for coronavirus 10 days ago. His symptoms included a high temperature and a cough.

Earlier on Monday, he tweeted that he was in "good spirits".



After very, very little information was shared today, the prime minister was taken into intensive care at around 19:00 BST.

We've been told he is still conscious, but his condition has worsened over the course of the afternoon.

And he has been moved to intensive care as a precaution in case he needs ventilation to get through this illness.

The statement from Downing Street makes clear he is receiving excellent care and he wants to thank all of the NHS staff.

But something important has changed, and he has felt it necessary to ask his foreign secretary to deputise for him where needs be.

That is a completely different message from what we have heard over the past 18 hours or so, where it was continually "the prime minister is in touch" and "he is in charge" - almost like everything is business as usual.

But clearly being in intensive care changes everything.

Last month, the prime minister's spokesman said if Mr Johnson was unwell and unable to work, Mr Raab, as the first secretary of state, would stand in.

It comes as the number of coronavirus hospital deaths in the UK reached 5,373 - an increase of 439 in a day.

The Department of Health and Social Care said there were now 51,608 confirmed coronavirus cases.

Intensive care is where doctors look after the sickest patients - his admission to ICU is the clearest indication of how ill the prime minister is.

We do not know the full details of Mr Johnson's condition, but he is conscious and not being ventilated.

Not every patient in intensive care is ventilated, but around two-thirds are within 24 hours of admission with Covid-19.

This is a disease that attacks the lungs and can cause pneumonia and difficulty breathing.

This leaves the body struggling to get enough oxygen into the blood and to the body's vital organs.

There is no proven drug treatment for Covid-19, although there are many experimental candidates.

But the cornerstone of the prime minister's care will depend on getting enough oxygen into his body and supporting his other organs while his immune system fights the virus.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said his thoughts were with the prime minister and his pregnant partner, Carrie Symonds, and that Mr Johnson would "come out of this even stronger".

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was "sending [Mr Johnson] every good wish", while Northern Ireland's First Minister Arlene Foster added she was "praying for a full and speedy recovery".

Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford called it "concerning news".

Mr Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn both said their thoughts were with him.

Mrs May noted that the "horrific virus does not discriminate".
French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted that he hoped Mr Johnson "overcomes this ordeal quickly."

For Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, the news "deepens our compassion for all who are seriously ill" and those looking after them.

And Mayor of London Sadiq Khan tweeted that St Thomas' Hospital had "some of the finest medical staff in the world" and that the prime minister "couldn't be in safer hands".

During the government's daily coronavirus briefing earlier on Monday, Mr Raab stressed that the prime minister had been continuing to run the government from hospital.

Asked whether that was appropriate, Mr Raab said Mr Johnson would "take the medical advice that he gets from his doctor".

"We have a team... that is full throttle making sure that his directions and his instructions are being implemented," he said.

The foreign secretary added that he had not spoken to the prime minister since Saturday.

On Saturday, Ms Symonds said she had spent a week in bed with the main symptoms. She said she had not been tested for the virus.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who also tested positive for the virus and spent time in self-isolation, offered "all possible best wishes to Boris Johnson and his loved ones".

"I know he will receive the best possible care from our amazing NHS," he tweeted.

Offline RE

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Re: 🦠 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted to ICU
« Reply #134 on: April 06, 2020, 04:36:43 PM »
Condition must be getting serious for Boris. In the daily briefing today it was noted that the Conservative party no longer used the word mild to describe Boris's condition. Perhaps they knew something was up then? Still MP's outside the inner circle were quite shocked at this turn of events.

If BoJo croaks from COVID-19, that will really set things spinning.

RE
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