PE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> Death of Individuals Versus Death of A Way Of Life

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Offline Eddie

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Death of Individuals Versus Death of A Way Of Life
« on: March 18, 2020, 08:10:13 AM »
Another thing that is getting zero attention is this.

On a normal, average day with NO Coronavirus, 150,000 people on this planet die every day.

100,000 of those die of old age, more or less.

In case you never thought about it, exactly how much of that number is your country, depends largely on the age of your country's population.

As a population gets older, more people die per capita, every year. Fact of life.....and in the West, including Europe, populations are not nearly as young as they used to be,

Take, for example, Italy, which has a population of 60.4 million. How many people NORMALLY die in Italy...and just exactly how much is that number changed by the Coronavirus epidemic?

I ask myself questions like this, because.....well, because I want to know.

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65

If you investigate the average death rate for Italy, you IMMEDIATELY can't help but notice....it's already been headed MUCH higher, since about 2006

Screen Shot 2020 03 18 at 9 01 14 AM
Screen Shot 2020 03 18 at 9 01 14 AM

Italy has ALREADY been having an epidemic...an epidemic of old age...for fourteen years.

So...in case you think like I do, you might ask yourself how much the Coronavirus will contribute to making this epidemic worse?

Rough numbers.....Coronavirus has caused about 2500 deaths in Italy as of yesterday.....and if we assume that it doesn't get a lot worse before it gets better...and it lasts a year.....it will have caused an increase in the Italian death rate of about 2.7%.

That's based on the average death rate pre-Corona......which was 10.6 per 1000 population....in 2019. At the 2019 rate, we get 906,000 deaths in a population of 60.4M

With Coronavirus continuing to kill 2500 per month, it gets us up to 936.000 deaths for 2020. 2.7% if my math is right.

But WAIT....also....don't forget the trend.

Screen Shot 2020 03 18 at 9 56 16 AM
Screen Shot 2020 03 18 at 9 56 16 AM

Even WITHOUT COVID-19  the death rate might have been expected to be higher by more than .7%.....so we're looking at at 2% more people in Italy dying in 2020 over the previously expected rate....and MOST of them will be age 60 or over and many in their 70s and 80's and already high risk to expire.

Don't get me wrong....I am over 60 myself, and I'm not suggesting that we let the old people all die.....I AM one...even though I'm not lucky enough to live in Lombardia, which I'm persuaded is a very nice area to live in and die in too. We all have to die somewhere though, and at some time.

What I AM suggesting is that it might not be a good idea to go batshit crazy  and collapse the global economy and send the entirety of western civilization into a global depression, compared to  just letting the disease run its course.......and to perhaps consider that resorting to mechanical ventilation to save the lives of people above the age of 70, especially people who are already pretty sick....might be counterproductive for the vast majority of humanity.

Just something to think about.

« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 09:35:58 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Surly1

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Re: Death of Individuals Versus Death of A Way Of Life
« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2020, 08:22:36 AM »
Even WITHOUT COVID-19  the death rate might have been expected to be higher by more than .7%.....so we're looking at at 2% more people in Italy dying in 2020 over the previously expected rate....and MOST of them will be age 60 or over and many in their 70s and 80's and already high risk to expire.
//
What I AM suggesting is that is might not be a good idea to go batshit crazy  and collapse the global economy and send the entirety of western civilization into a global depression, based on the  likelihood of  just letting the disease run its course.......and to perhaps consider that resorting to mechanical ventilation to save the lives of people above the age of 70, especially people who are already pretty sick....might be counterproductive for the vast majority of humanity.

Just something to think about.

Well done to ask and answer this question.

But it's ALWAYS a good time to sink the economy and drive small businessmen out of business, such that billionaires, "retail arbitragers" and other vermin can swoop up and buy up assets at fire sale prices. Never let a crisis go to waste
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Death of Individuals Versus Death of A Way Of Life
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 06:38:14 AM »
Hi Eddie, I thought this article was appropriate the the subject header. I think  the discussion has started already about controlling this versus tanking everything...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline Eddie

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Re: Death of Individuals Versus Death of A Way Of Life
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 06:48:04 AM »
Hi Eddie, I thought this article was appropriate the the subject header. I think  the discussion has started already about controlling this versus tanking everything...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423

Good piece. Thanks.

Don't try to be perfect. Be fast

Dr. Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization's emergencies program and a veteran of the Ebola epidemic, said "speed trumps perfection."


This is a fucking joke. The WHO has been anything BUT fast.....unfortunately they were SO slow and so pitiful that we are now between a rock and a hard place.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

 

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