AuthorTopic: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts  (Read 931 times)

Offline Cam

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2020, 11:58:43 AM »

Damn the Diner has been a productive place over the years eh? Thank you RE!
YW.

That's just my stuff.  There's a lot of good econ articles from Steve Ludlum (Steve from Virginia) also.  Here's one:

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2014/06/06/aimless-circling-of-doom/

Here's a vid with Steve, Gail Tverberg, Ugo Bardi, Monsta & me:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/BnByO2E1Y4w" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/BnByO2E1Y4w</a>

RE

Very neat thank you. This along with everything else people posted will keep me busy for quite a while!  :icon_sunny:

Offline Eddie

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #46 on: April 22, 2020, 12:08:14 PM »
This guy wrote some good stuff on his blog. He studied Vrabel and tried to "correct" some of what he considered to be less than perfect.

https://sites.google.com/site/themattprather/money/money-system-and-economic-forecast
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline monsta666

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #47 on: April 22, 2020, 12:52:02 PM »
While petroleum has long been a crucial component of "the economy," it's going way too far to identify money with petroleum. It's not going too far to connect or associate money and petroleum. But when we identify money with petroleum -- i.e., "$ = petro"-- that's just not so.

I often put the phrase "the economy" in quotes, because I have a particular lens, or angle, or set of goggles, I use when thinking about "the economy" and it's not at all like the set of goggles most economists use, nor most people in general.  My goggles are anthropological, and for me an 'economy' is best understood, first and foremost, as that portion of social and cultural life which falls under the heading of "material culture" in anthropological terms. So, for me, an economy is best understood as the means by which people access their most basic human needs, such as food, shelter, water..., basic material needs. Humans have always had extras in relation to basic human needs, but they were always a tiny fraction of "the economy". Now, in the so-called developed world, our basic needs are no longer central to our 'economy'.  They are no longer at the core of the economy. They are not even secondary, but tertiary to the basic form and structure of "the economy". That is, we do not have a needs-based economy. We have a luxury economy.  Very little of what we imagine to be essential to our lives is actually essential. 

To make an analogy, the world economy is a bit like an airplane. If you look at things at a glance then the plane is a marvel of engineering that previous generations would only dream about. However when you look at the matter more closely you realize the whole system is inherently unsustainable. I mean the thing runs and depends on fricking fossil fuel. So we can all agree, at least in principle, the system needs to change. Indeed you can even go so far as to say the system may not even fufil our needs in the best way.

The big issue, and this is something that is difficult (impossible?) to resolve is how do you transistion from our current paradigm to the thing you envision? The economy is like the plane. When things works well it is flying but the problem of the plane is it MUST keep going forward. There is no reverse function and even if you slow the plane enough it will stall, then crash... So how do you change a plane to a helicopter without crashing or hitting rock bottom? The scale of the difficulty in a transistion is almost as difficult as the analogy I describe and it one that no one has been able to apply a convincing answer. And let us remember while it is ideal to have what you say, the problem is lots of people will lose their livelihoods and even their lifes as we shift from one paradigm to another. As lucid use to always say: you can't escape the matrix. If you try and get out it has a way of reeling you back in. Esepcially if you decide to have a family with kids.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/S-IkWpm7TS0" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/S-IkWpm7TS0</a>

I do not believe there is a way out without great pain but maybe I am being overly cynical. Best thing I can think of is adopting the right skillsets so you are more prepared and independent than others. If this pandemic taught us anything it is the worlds governments and large corporations are grossly unprepared for anything that is even moderately outside business as usual. It would be too much to expect them to react to collapse in a coherent manner. And if there is a Trump v2 when the collapse is occuring, god help us all...

Offline JRM

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #48 on: April 22, 2020, 02:29:42 PM »
Actually, MonstaMan, I don't think the problem is as technically intractable as you suggest.  It is socially and politically nearly impossible under current conditions, but even that may change soon enough. But I've found talking about the transition process exceedingly difficult, largely because most people who would want to talk about it at all tend to have a set of rigidly held beliefs about many of the major topics of "transition".  One by one folks would need to be disabused of the rigidity of their belief system to begin to perceive (in some sense to imagine) what is actually possible here.

Lots and lots of folks will insist that without fossil fuels there would be a mass die-off of humans. But these people have not thought the question through thoroughly, in my opinion.  One by one folks would have to pick away at the claims which these people rely on to equate a rapid transition away from fossil fuels with mass die-off of humans. They will tend to say things like

(a)  "Modern agriculture is totally fossil fuel dependent, from its fertilizers and pesticides to its farm machinery and its elaborate systems of transport, processing, refrigeration, freezing, drying, etc., etc...."

(b)  "Modern industrial agriculture is vastly more 'efficient' than small scaled, regenerative, local, agrarian polyculture horticulture."

Well, item b is flatly false by essentially all useful measures other than units of production (food) per labor hour.  This is not a guess. It's a fact which is readily demonstrated by many scientific reports.  Fact:  Small, local sustainable-regenerative polyculture micro-farming is often more productive per acre or hectare than conventional industrial agriculture.  So doing without fossil fuel in agriculture is in principle very doable without resulting in a mass die off of humans.

Item a is true, but the falsity of item b partly explains why item a is really not terribly relevant to the human carrying capacity during 'transition'.

For me, having thought these things through carefully over many years, I can readily see a transition process occur which returns us to a needs based economy which meets our legitimate human needs while also allowing Earth's ecosystems and biosphere to recover from the wreck and ruin of the growth-based and growth dependent system of DOMINATION which the modern industrial capitalist system simply IS.  Regeneration goes in the opposite direction of domination. That's what's beautiful and inspiring about permacuture, bioregionalism, ecovillages, etc.

The dominant mode of economic life is wildly destructive, and yet meeting our actual human needs outside of these dominator systems is entirely doable.  But this brings us back to the social and political dimension. The material dimension is easy enough to solve. We've had the know-how to create wonderful, rich, wholesome, fulfilling human lives outside of the extractive-destructive-dominator system for a long time. But most people don't even know this! Nor do most seem to care much. The lack of knowledge and the lack of care are common root to one another.  To care one must know. To know, one must care. So the solutions to the social dimension to this problem are not available to the "mainstream mindset" in the "developed world".  Addressing this problem has been at the center of my intellectual life work.  I understand the nature of the problem better than most, and I believe we can essentially functionally solve the problem, but the "answers" are not to be found under the familiar lamp posts, but in areas of thought and inquiry which are generally not well developed (well 'lit'). 

I am, of course, talking about a revolution.  Not the kind of revolution which involves the violent overthrow of a regime, but a revolution which involves walking away -- abandoning -- the domination based, extractive, ruinous luxury-based economy.  But to walk away we both need to know that (1) there are alternatives to the dominator system, and (2) the dominator system in no way deserves our allegiance and devotion--indeed, it merits being seen for what it really is: a death culture.  A culture which moves not toward wellness, health, happiness and life, but which destroys all of these and lies to its adherents about the real facts of the matter.  So it is a lie culture and a death culture. Demonstrably so. And so it makes sense to abandon it insofar as such an abandonment is possible.

Would abandoning it cause that "airplane" to stall.  Sure. But the abandonment would be just gradual enough that since it really isn't an airplane, per se, there would be life boats for everyone. Indeed, the emerging regenerative culture would BE those lifeboats.  But the regenerative culture would be much smaller in lots of respects. Smaller in terms of house size and material possessions -- things.  We'd all be spending a great deal of our waking life attending to the meeting of our real, legitimate material needs, and less time driving around in circles in automobiles, bowling, shopping at the mall....  The knowledge and skills we would develop would be of a radically different kind, generally. We'd know (e.g.) how to prevent squash vine borers from sucking the life out of our squash plants without stooping to the ungraceful use of chemical pesticides, and when prevention has failed we will know how to preform emergency surgery on a squash plant, thus removing the pesky critter.   Some imagine it a bleak life with little leisure and all toil. But if we keep our houses small, or share the ones we have, and we have no car payments or even tractor payments... by living low and small we will have ample leisure.  Because it will be necessary, again, we will know our neighbors, and we will look out for one another again, as once we did.

Alternatively, we could try to continue along the path of Plan A. And we all know where that goes. It goes straight to hell.

We don't really need petroleum. Except in a volume a tiny fraction of the current usage.  And we don't need a luxury economy.  And these things never really served us well, anyway.  But I'm not wanting to abandon all of modern life! Not by a long shot.  I'm not wanting to "go back" to a time without technology, etc. So my vision is about proportions.  The modern economy is all out of proportion -- much too big, and fast.  It's time to walk away.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 03:03:17 PM by JRM »
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #49 on: April 22, 2020, 04:07:48 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline JRM

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #50 on: April 22, 2020, 05:08:42 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...

Did it fade?

Of course, the Transition Town movement initiated by Rob Hopkins is not the only transitioning going on, or trying to. But has that faded? Is this anecdotal or based on some kind of data?
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Eddie

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #51 on: April 22, 2020, 05:21:03 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...

Did it fade?


Of course, the Transition Town movement initiated by Rob Hopkins is not the only transitioning going on, or trying to. But has that faded? Is this anecdotal or based on some kind of data?

It faded out completely here. We used to meet every month...it's been several years. My friend that go the involved is dead, unfortunately.....but I'd say the whole local group here has been out of business for maybe 7 years.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline JRM

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #52 on: April 22, 2020, 05:23:41 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...

Did it fade?


Of course, the Transition Town movement initiated by Rob Hopkins is not the only transitioning going on, or trying to. But has that faded? Is this anecdotal or based on some kind of data?

It faded out completely here. We used to meet every month...it's been several years. My friend that go the involved is dead, unfortunately.....but I'd say the whole local group here has been out of business for maybe 7 years.

Why did it fade, you think?
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Eddie

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #53 on: April 22, 2020, 05:29:38 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...

Did it fade?


Of course, the Transition Town movement initiated by Rob Hopkins is not the only transitioning going on, or trying to. But has that faded? Is this anecdotal or based on some kind of data?

It faded out completely here. We used to meet every month...it's been several years. My friend that go the involved is dead, unfortunately.....but I'd say the whole local group here has been out of business for maybe 7 years.

Why did it fade, you think?


I think the shale oil boom blew the Peak Oil people out of the water, basically. A lot of people around 2010 to 2012 thought we were on the verge of a shutdown in JIT delivery and the whole PO driven credit crash was thought to be just around the corner.

It didn't happen hard enough or quick enough to keep people interested in living an alternative lifestyle.


And there were factions that didn't get along.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline JRM

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #54 on: April 22, 2020, 06:48:30 PM »
Even as early as the late 1800's less than 20 percent of people worked in agriculture.  https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
 The horse driven equipment of the day ran without fossil fuel and eliminated 75 percent of manual labour on farms in the western world. Smart application of machines could ease a transition and use a fraction of the fuel as agri business... I've basically devoted a large percentage of my hobby time to that over the last decade... The transition movement was big for a while a decade ago but it faded... maybe it was ahead of its time...

Did it fade?


Of course, the Transition Town movement initiated by Rob Hopkins is not the only transitioning going on, or trying to. But has that faded? Is this anecdotal or based on some kind of data?

It faded out completely here. We used to meet every month...it's been several years. My friend that go the involved is dead, unfortunately.....but I'd say the whole local group here has been out of business for maybe 7 years.

Why did it fade, you think?


I think the shale oil boom blew the Peak Oil people out of the water, basically. A lot of people around 2010 to 2012 thought we were on the verge of a shutdown in JIT delivery and the whole PO driven credit crash was thought to be just around the corner.

It didn't happen hard enough or quick enough to keep people interested in living an alternative lifestyle.


And there were factions that didn't get along.

And climate wasn't on their radar screens?

Please tell me what you observed about those factions.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #55 on: April 22, 2020, 07:13:20 PM »
Here it died when oil prices dropped but it was walking wounded already. We even brought in nicole foss to give a talk... great speaker. The factions here were local ag people being told by people who had never grown anything  that everything they did was wrong. Energy people like me being not enthusiastic enough when I tried to explain the realities of solar in a northern climate. So eventually the talkers kept talking and having meetings and the doers started staying at home...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

Offline JRM

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #56 on: April 22, 2020, 07:45:03 PM »
Here it died when oil prices dropped but it was walking wounded already. We even brought in nicole foss to give a talk... great speaker. The factions here were local ag people being told by people who had never grown anything  that everything they did was wrong. Energy people like me being not enthusiastic enough when I tried to explain the realities of solar in a northern climate. So eventually the talkers kept talking and having meetings and the doers started staying at home...

Ahh, the talkers versus the doers.  The stupidest fucking divide ever. Why did it not divide into "talkers" divided from "doers" divided against the "talker-doers"? Do people imagine we can "do" effectively without talking, and vice versa? Good doers are also talkers, and vice versa. To divide into adversary camps here is just dumb.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Surly1

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #57 on: April 23, 2020, 03:36:42 AM »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/lT4VXF1XJYk" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/lT4VXF1XJYk</a>
RE

Boy..I wasn't that close, was I?  Thank you!

I recommend Damon Vrabel to anybody who never watched him in the old days.        :)

I watched it. Completely as advertised, and then some. Absolutely incredible and straightforward.
"Machiavelli never dreamed of such power."
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #58 on: April 23, 2020, 03:40:57 AM »
So I went to check out his blog and saw this:

Quote
csper.wordpress.com is no longer available.

This site has been archived or suspended for a violation of our Terms of Service.
For more information and to contact us please read this support document.

Any insight? Based on that first video, I can understand why having a guy like him running around would be as uncomfortable for some as John Perkins writing and publishing.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Nearingsfault

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Re: Getting a conceptual and theoretical handle on bailouts
« Reply #59 on: April 23, 2020, 04:24:58 AM »
Here it died when oil prices dropped but it was walking wounded already. We even brought in nicole foss to give a talk... great speaker. The factions here were local ag people being told by people who had never grown anything  that everything they did was wrong. Energy people like me being not enthusiastic enough when I tried to explain the realities of solar in a northern climate. So eventually the talkers kept talking and having meetings and the doers started staying at home...

Ahh, the talkers versus the doers.  The stupidest fucking divide ever. Why did it not divide into "talkers" divided from "doers" divided against the "talker-doers"? Do people imagine we can "do" effectively without talking, and vice versa? Good doers are also talkers, and vice versa. To divide into adversary camps here is just dumb.
doers will talk if given a chance the problem here was the mixture of those interested caused natural lifelong divides to exert themselves. Retired well pensioner midmanagers, teachers, lawyers, social workers do not have the same priorities as people who work in trades or farm or ranch who must keep working or else. So for a while it was local resilience that held their attention, but when oil dropped and the financial world did not collapse it became eco tourist, hybrid SUV'S and hot tubs at the cottage..  for a while we did well local beef, a grain csa, a chicken network, My contacts are still there just not much community buy in...
If its important then try something, fail, disect, learn from it, try again, and again and again until it kills you or you succeed.

 

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