PE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread

AuthorTopic: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread  (Read 673 times)

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« on: July 08, 2020, 06:57:13 AM »
This is from my local county health department COVID dashboard. It tracks new infections in this county and two adjacent counties. the interesting thing is that one of these is Travis County (Austin), the middle one is Williamson (adjacent and mostly suburban but also partly rural).....and Bell County, which only has two towns of any size (but which also includes the massive Ft. Hood Army base).....It's the most rural of the three counties, and on the far side of Williamson County from Austin.)

Several days back I noticed that Williamson county had not spiked with Travis County in the big upsurge.....but later it had its own similar spike....Now Travis County is headed back down, and Williamson county is still in an uptrend.

Bell County, the most rural of the three, has not yet had the kind of up-spike the other two counties have had. Not at all.

So I'm watching and expecting to see two things....a new up-spike in Bell County, and possibly a down leg in Williamson County.

This all would indicate that the virus spreads in waves, when the urban hot spot (Austin) has a large upsurge in cases.

Screen Shot 2020 07 08 at 8 40 36 AM
Screen Shot 2020 07 08 at 8 40 36 AM



What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 02:47:01 PM »
This is from my local county health department COVID dashboard. It tracks new infections in this county and two adjacent counties. the interesting thing is that one of these is Travis County (Austin), the middle one is Williamson (adjacent and mostly suburban but also partly rural).....and Bell County, which only has two towns of any size (but which also includes the massive Ft. Hood Army base).....It's the most rural of the three counties, and on the far side of Williamson County from Austin.)

Several days back I noticed that Williamson county had not spiked with Travis County in the big upsurge.....but later it had its own similar spike....Now Travis County is headed back down, and Williamson county is still in an uptrend.

Bell County, the most rural of the three, has not yet had the kind of up-spike the other two counties have had. Not at all.

So I'm watching and expecting to see two things....a new up-spike in Bell County, and possibly a down leg in Williamson County.

This all would indicate that the virus spreads in waves, when the urban hot spot (Austin) has a large upsurge in cases.

Screen Shot 2020 07 08 at 8 40 36 AM
Screen Shot 2020 07 08 at 8 40 36 AM


It's only been five days since I checked......and you can see that the wave pattern of COVID transmission is holding true....Williamson County rates went down, as expected, after Austin rates fell first...and the more rural  Bell County is still spiking from the big Austin spike of 6-19 through 7-3.

The rural county spike I will expect to be shorter in duration than the urban (Travis) county and it will peak much lower in absolute numbers.

Screen Shot 2020 07 13 at 4 38 50 PM
Screen Shot 2020 07 13 at 4 38 50 PM
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 05:33:04 AM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 03:10:15 PM »
I had to cancel some patients for tomorrow. The sister of one of my employees works in another medical office........and they had an employee test positive last week.

The  possibly exposed person doesn't work for me, but two of her sisters do....the test results should be back tomorrow for the employees of the other office....my two employees tried to get tested today....and were turned away because they have no symptoms...absolutely stupid that essential workers can't even get tested after a possible exposure...
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 03:20:04 PM by Eddie »
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 03:23:47 PM »
I had to cancel some patients for tomorrow. The sister of one of my employees works in another medical office........and they had an employee test positive last week.

The  possibly exposed person doesn't work for me, but two of her sisters do....the test results should be back tomorrow for the employees of the other office....my two employees tried to get tested today....and were turned away because they have no symptoms...absolutely stupid that essential workers can't even get tested after a possible exposure...

You're a Doctor, can't you do the testing yourself?  I mean, how hard is it to stick a Q-Tip up somebody's nose?

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2020, 03:29:51 PM »
I had to cancel some patients for tomorrow. The sister of one of my employees works in another medical office........and they had an employee test positive last week.

The  possibly exposed person doesn't work for me, but two of her sisters do....the test results should be back tomorrow for the employees of the other office....my two employees tried to get tested today....and were turned away because they have no symptoms...absolutely stupid that essential workers can't even get tested after a possible exposure...

You're a Doctor, can't you do the testing yourself?  I mean, how hard is it to stick a Q-Tip up somebody's nose?

RE

No kits available for dentists so far, AFAIK. It isn't that I can't collect a sample.....it's what to do with it that is the problem.

In general, because we don't work with a reference lab on a regular basis, the logistics for any kind of lab work are not well sorted. I even refer biopsies, because I don't keep the the right kits.....they expire unused....so why bother?

When I got tested 6-8 weeks ago now, I just got online and made an appointment...it was no big deal.....I guess they are running low on tests at the free drive-up places. Dunno.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2020, 03:38:42 PM »
I had to cancel some patients for tomorrow. The sister of one of my employees works in another medical office........and they had an employee test positive last week.

The  possibly exposed person doesn't work for me, but two of her sisters do....the test results should be back tomorrow for the employees of the other office....my two employees tried to get tested today....and were turned away because they have no symptoms...absolutely stupid that essential workers can't even get tested after a possible exposure...

You're a Doctor, can't you do the testing yourself?  I mean, how hard is it to stick a Q-Tip up somebody's nose?

RE

No kits available for dentists so far, AFAIK. It isn't that I can't collect a sample.....it's what to do with it that is the problem.

In general, because we don't work with a reference lab on a regular basis, the logistics for any kind of lab work are not well sorted. I even refer biopsies, because I don't keep the the right kits.....they expire unused....so why bother?

When I got tested 6-8 weeks ago now, I just got online and made an appointment...it was no big deal.....I guess they are running low on tests at the free drive-up places. Dunno.

From what I have read to date, the problem is not so much in getting a sample, but a backup in the labs that run the tests.  People get tested, but then wait weeks for a test result.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Phil Rumpole

  • Waitstaff
  • ***
  • Posts: 461
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 03:41:07 PM »
I had to cancel some patients for tomorrow. The sister of one of my employees works in another medical office........and they had an employee test positive last week.

The  possibly exposed person doesn't work for me, but two of her sisters do....the test results should be back tomorrow for the employees of the other office....my two employees tried to get tested today....and were turned away because they have no symptoms...absolutely stupid that essential workers can't even get tested after a possible exposure...


That's me too, but surely you know why. Let's not forget the first cruise ship passengers exposed were only quarantined for a week, now we believe 2 weeks is sufficient. I say wrong, the effects of covid19 are extremely variable.  I flew out of Singapore on 2nd Feb on a flight full of Chinese people. 4 weeks later I had an unusual dry cough that persisted about 3 weeks. No high temperature, no test.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 03:49:44 PM by Phil Rumpole »
Women are like hurricanes: Wet and wild when they come, take your house when they leave

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2020, 05:24:22 AM »
My employee's sister tested negative, so we dodged the bullet one more time. Back to the new normal...one day at a time.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2020, 05:42:38 AM »
My employee's sister tested negative, so we dodged the bullet one more time. Back to the new normal...one day at a time.

Have you tried negotiating a rent reduction from your landlord?

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2020, 05:57:12 AM »
Having lived through prior bust cycles, I can tell you that  landlords almost never lower rents...they'd rather run you off and take their chances with another tenant.

If it doesn't rent to the next guy.......that is where the reductions start.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2020, 07:47:37 AM »
Having lived through prior bust cycles, I can tell you that  landlords almost never lower rents...they'd rather run you off and take their chances with another tenant.

If it doesn't rent to the next guy.......that is where the reductions start.

How about just stop paying him?  He'd have a real tough time evicting an "essential" bizness in the midst of a pandemic.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Surly1

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 18654
    • View Profile
    • Doomstead Diner
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2020, 08:09:33 AM »
Having lived through prior bust cycles, I can tell you that  landlords almost never lower rents...they'd rather run you off and take their chances with another tenant.

If it doesn't rent to the next guy.......that is where the reductions start.

How about just stop paying him?  He'd have a real tough time evicting an "essential" bizness in the midst of a pandemic.

RE

Who needs that fucking headache? Who needs more paperwork?
"...reprehensible lying communist..."

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2020, 08:33:36 AM »
Having lived through prior bust cycles, I can tell you that  landlords almost never lower rents...they'd rather run you off and take their chances with another tenant.

If it doesn't rent to the next guy.......that is where the reductions start.

How about just stop paying him?  He'd have a real tough time evicting an "essential" bizness in the midst of a pandemic.

RE

Who needs that fucking headache? Who needs more paperwork?

If you're bleeding money like a stuck pig, what's a little extra paperwork?  Just send it to your lawyer.  Then he sends a cease & desist letter.  The when (if ever) the pandemic is over you go to arbitration on the back rent due.  The landlord would be lucky if he got half.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

Offline Eddie

  • Master Chef
  • *****
  • Posts: 19749
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2020, 08:40:01 AM »
My office rent is low, and frankly, it's also very low on the priority list, as far as things that need to be dealt with right now.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline RE

  • Administrator
  • Chief Cook & Bottlewasher
  • *****
  • Posts: 42025
    • View Profile
Re: Possible Wave Pattern of COVID Spread
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2020, 08:46:05 AM »
My office rent is low, and frankly, it's also very low on the priority list, as far as things that need to be dealt with right now.

You said you were losing money.  I would think slowing the outbound flow of cash would be a fairly high priority item.

RE
Save As Many As You Can

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
0 Replies
979 Views
Last post December 12, 2018, 12:29:57 PM
by azozeo
1 Replies
689 Views
Last post January 11, 2019, 05:15:54 PM
by Surly1
2 Replies
163 Views
Last post May 24, 2020, 04:06:31 PM
by RE