AuthorTopic: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory  (Read 36877 times)

Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2014, 03:46:55 PM »
It's worth exploring, this hypothesis. But it should be treated as a hypothesis, not a theory.  It's not nearly grown up enough to be a theory.

This is why we should stick with the scientific mainstream  (when it comes to responding to the climate crisis)... until we have good reason to abandon the current theory of why the Earth is warming.

To shepherd the thing from mere speculation through theory-building would require qualified scientists to explore it. And there seems to be little reason why they should. However, if you can provide very solid reasons to suppose that the current theory should be abandoned in favor of this hypothesis, I'm all ears. As of yet, I'm not even sure that in fact volcanic or earthquake activity is increasing over time. I'd want this to be analyzed carefully, then exposed to solid geophysical scrutiny concerning the hypothesis that this should be linked to oceanic or atmospheric warming. Science is plodding, stepwise, and careful work.

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Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2014, 04:00:56 PM »
PS -

I recommend changing the title of this thread to "A Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory Hypothesis.

A hypothesis is either a suggested explanation for an observable phenomenon, or a reasoned prediction of a possible causal correlation among multiple phenomena. In science, a theory is a tested, well-substantiated, unifying explanation for a set of verified, proven factors. A theory is always backed by evidence; a hypothesis is only a suggested possible outcome, and is testable and falsifiable.

http://www.diffen.com/difference/Hypothesis_vs_Theory

My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Online RE

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #32 on: December 19, 2014, 04:28:00 PM »
Go over the graphs yourself.  They all show increasing vulcanism and earthquakes over the last 30 years.

Definition of Theory:

  the·o·ry
    ˈTHēərē/
    noun
    noun: theory; plural noun: theories
        a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.

However, if you prefer hypothesis, feel free to call it a hypothesis.

Good luck finding any scientists who will even consider the idea.  Guy McPherson simply waved his hand at it.  It's a done deal far as he is concerned, temps are warming due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2, end of story.

You're right that it doesn't matter anyhow, because we can't do anything about it either way.

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #33 on: December 19, 2014, 11:20:20 PM »
As of yet, I'm not even sure that in fact volcanic or earthquake activity is increasing over time. I'd want this to be analyzed carefully, then exposed to solid geophysical scrutiny concerning the hypothesis that this should be linked to oceanic or atmospheric warming. Science is plodding, stepwise, and careful work.
Here are a couple graphs about volcanic activity:


Regrettably, you are quite mistaken in that last statement about the nature of science.  I suggest you read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn if you want a more accurate picture.

I find the Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Hypothesis to be an excellent litmus test between true scientists and practitioners of scientism.  There is absolutely no reason why this couldn't be working at the same time as Anthropogenic Global Warming.  It's all a question of what fits the evidence best, and anyone who dismisses either out-of-hand is arguing from faith, and is therefore not a very trustworthy source in my estimation.
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Online RE

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #34 on: December 19, 2014, 11:56:41 PM »
Very good graphs JD, but just the Tip of the IcebergDlindquists Research on Earthquakes at various magnitudes and their frequency is the real Elephant in the Room far as energy release over this time period.



Ocean Warming tracks the energy release via Earthquakes and Vulcanism over the same time period with high correlation



There is no fundamental reason both effects may contribute here, but basically the energy release by the Earth over the time period dwarfs that of man, and you have the real big problem that the Heat Capacity of the Ocean is so much greater than that of the Atmosphere.  Its quite EZ for heat to dump from the Ocean to the Atmosphere, but to go the other way round is very difficult.

Bottom line here though, you simply cannot GET any scientist to even CONSIDER the Geotectonic effects here, they have constructed a model working from CO2 backward which they think explains the situation, not a whole lot different than the system of Epicycles that Ptolemy came up with to explain his understanding of planetary motion.  Worked as an explanation for a long time, but it was WRONG.  Copernicus, Galileo and Newton eventually showed that, but it took a VERY long time before it was accepted as the correct explanation.

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« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 12:04:04 AM by RE »
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Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2014, 08:30:50 AM »

Definition of Theory:[/b]
  the·o·ry
    ˈTHēərē/
    noun
    noun: theory; plural noun: theories
        a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.

However, if you prefer hypothesis, feel free to call it a hypothesis.

The word "theory" means something a little different when used in reference to the sciences versus when used in reference to other, non-scientific questions.  You are clearly misusing the word here if the topic and conversation is a matter of science.

I'll look at the evidence for increased volcanism and earthquake activity.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 08:46:53 AM by JRM »
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Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #36 on: December 20, 2014, 08:47:41 AM »

You're right that it doesn't matter anyhow, because we can't do anything about it either way.

I did not--and would not--say that there's nothing we can do about it.  I've devoted much of my life to the study of those things we can do about this and other environmental / ecological problems and crises.  What we need to do about it is both dramatically reduce CO2 emissions AND draw down atmospheric carbon via  Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration (TCS) - http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,3288.0.html

We KNOW how do do this, technically. We're choosing not to. THAT IS THE REAL PROBLEM.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Hypothesis
« Reply #37 on: December 20, 2014, 10:31:43 AM »
My knowledge of geology and geophysics is extremely limited. So it's difficult, at best, for me to assess the "geotectonic ocean heat transfer hypothesis" (GOHTH).

Even if it is true that there has been a recent increase in earthquake and volcano activity, we'd have to be very clear about why this should be expected to have a significant impact on ocean temperatures.  Merely guessing that it should is not enough. And we'd have to have a way to quantify these effects and measure them -- if we're doing science.

I'd also be interested in WHY volcano and earthquake activity is on the increase, if in fact it is. (To be sure, we'd have to look at both intensity AND events -- in relation to one another. And we'd have to be sure that the changes are real and not merely an artefact of increased reporting due to increased population and measurement capacities....)

There appears to be some reason to believe that significant geophysical changes are underway on Earth, below its crust. 

Earth's Magnetic Field Flip Could Happen Sooner Than Expected
Changes measured by the Swarm satellite show that our magnetic field is weakening 10 times faster than originally predicted, especially over the Western Hemisphere

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-magnetic-field-flip-could-happen-sooner-than-expected/

Excerpts:

"Scientists already know that magnetic north shifts. Once every few hundred thousand years the magnetic poles flip so that a compass would point south instead of north."

....

"The movement of the molten metal is why some areas of the magnetic field strengthen while others weaken, Florberghagen said. When the boiling in one area of the outer core slows down, fewer currents of charged particles are released, and the magnetic field over the surface weakens.

"The flow of the liquid outer core almost pulls the magnetic field around with it," Floberghagen said. "So, a field weakening over the American continent would mean that the flow in the outer core below America is slowing down."

If indeed there is an increase in volcanic / earthquake activity, this fact may be related to regional slowing of movement of molten metal deep within the Earth.

If we're to get anywhere on the topic of the hypothesis in question, we're going to need to bring in a geologist and/or geophysicist or two to explain why (if it is the case) exactly more heat would be emerging at the Earth's surface recently as compared with earlier times in geological history.

Meanwhile, I'll subscribe to the scientific consensus on why the oceans and atmosphere is warming.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline MKing

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #38 on: December 20, 2014, 11:55:06 AM »
What we need to do about it is both dramatically reduce CO2 emissions AND draw down atmospheric carbon via  Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration (TCS) -
We KNOW how do do this, technically. We're choosing not to. THAT IS THE REAL PROBLEM.

Choosing not to? Folks have been prototyping the technology for years, and it has been going on for years now.

Like here...which includes the first EPA certified Class VI injection well in the US:

https://www.isgs.illinois.edu/midwest-geological-sequestration-consortium-reaches-major-milestone-illinois-basin-decatur-project

Those who when taxed properly have been doing it longer than the temperature hasn't been rising:

https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects/sleipner.html

and then are the new, fully integrated projects already up and running in Canada as well

https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects/boundary_dam.html

So sure we are choosing to do something, and as we all know, EPA regulation 111(d) is going to seal the deal. Don't they even discuss all this research and functioning projects on climate websites? You would think they would trumpeting these successes from the rooftops?
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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #39 on: December 20, 2014, 12:16:44 PM »
Very good graphs JD, but just the Tip of the IcebergDlindquists Research on Earthquakes at various magnitudes and their frequency is the real Elephant in the Room far as energy release over this time period.
Absolutely!  The graphs I provided were just to get JRM started looking down the pathway.  Your graphs are definitely better.
Quote
There is no fundamental reason both effects may contribute here, but basically the energy release by the Earth over the time period dwarfs that of man, and you have the real big problem that the Heat Capacity of the Ocean is so much greater than that of the Atmosphere.  Its quite EZ for heat to dump from the Ocean to the Atmosphere, but to go the other way round is very difficult.
The irony is, the heating effect IS tiny, as a percentage.  If I recall correctly, it is equal to approximately 1% of one day's incoming solar radiation for an entire year.   Or, to put it another way, if we put up a satellite that just blocked the sunlight from all points on the globe for 15 minutes over the course of a year, that would take care of all global warming.  (NOT that that's a practical solution -- if you think about how small a dot the International Space Station is compared with the size of the Sun, we'd need something that is visually similar in size to the Sun, which would be massive.)

If it were not tiny, we would be cooked already, there would be no debate.
Quote
Bottom line here though, you simply cannot GET any scientist to even CONSIDER the Geotectonic effects here, they have constructed a model working from CO2 backward which they think explains the situation, not a whole lot different than the system of Epicycles that Ptolemy came up with to explain his understanding of planetary motion.  Worked as an explanation for a long time, but it was WRONG.  Copernicus, Galileo and Newton eventually showed that, but it took a VERY long time before it was accepted as the correct explanation.
That pretty well summarizes a chapter in Thomas Kuhn's book.

Another irony is that Anthropogenic Global Warming is in a convoluted way still very comforting.  AGW leaves Man as the Master of His Own Fate, even if it ends up being suicidal.  GOHTH makes humans pathetic little creatures subject to forces far beyond their ability to even cope with.  I suspect THAT is the real reason no one wants to consider it.
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Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #40 on: December 20, 2014, 12:44:31 PM »
GOHTH makes humans pathetic little creatures subject to forces far beyond their ability to even cope with.  I suspect THAT is the real reason no one wants to consider it.

It is a serious exaggeration to say that "no one wants to consider it," though it is not such an exaggeration to suggest that very, very few people have (a) heard of the GOHTH, while (b) only a fraction of these take it very seriously as a potential explanation for recent increases in global average temperatures on Earth.  is

It is a hypothesis which needs to be worked out in MUCH greater detail before it could be considered as meriting potential as a theory.  I don't even know of a single paper having been written on this hypothesis (by which I mean a real scientific paper written by a competent geophysicist or geologist.

We simply don't have enough data or explanation. It is, in other words, a mere hunch. A wild guess.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Online RE

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #41 on: December 20, 2014, 01:00:12 PM »

We simply don't have enough data or explanation. It is, in other words, a mere hunch. A wild guess.

There's plenty of data.  USGS and NOAA have been collecting data for decades.

I wish you luck getting any "real scientist" to research it.  Nobody will fund it.

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Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #42 on: December 20, 2014, 01:02:00 PM »
Regrettably, you are quite mistaken in that last statement about the nature of science.  I suggest you read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn if you want a more accurate picture.

Is it this quote to which your objection applies?:  "Science is plodding, stepwise, and careful work."

I'm familiar with Kuhn, actually, and how paradigms operate--and change.  The comment in the quote was about the everyday practice of science, how it requires very careful testing of hypotheses so as to avoid many potential illusions ... such as the illusion that a matter is fully understood, when in fact it is not. 

I have no doubt that geophysical changes may be contributing to the recent global warming trend.  What none of us know with any degree of knowingness is if indeed it is, or by what proportion in relation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases.

The last thing we need is for the deniers to have one more reason to pretend to know that the scientific consensus on climate change is garbage.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline JRM

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #43 on: December 20, 2014, 01:14:48 PM »

We simply don't have enough data or explanation. It is, in other words, a mere hunch. A wild guess.

There's plenty of data.  USGS and NOAA have been collecting data for decades.


Are you referring to data about increasing levels of volcanic activity and earthquakes? If so, that's potentially very relevant and useful data in relation to the hypothesis under consideration.  But even if we knew with certainty that these things are on the increase, that would not by and of itself indicate that geological changes are a significant or important factor in the recent global warming trend -- especially in proportion to warming caused by anthropogenic ghg's.
The data which is most crucial here is the data which would enable a comparison of proportional effects between these two. And I suspect science has thin theoretical grasp on the precise mechanisms whereby increasing volcanic / earthquake activity may be related to ocean temperature changes.  We seem to be largely guessing in the dark about any of this.
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Online Eddie

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Re: Geotectonic Ocean Heat Transfer Theory
« Reply #44 on: December 20, 2014, 01:23:41 PM »
I'm pretty much counting on giant clouds of ash from erupting volcanoes reversing global warming by blocking out the sun, right at the last minute. I think that's our best chance of surviving NTE, at this point.

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