C5 Walks into a Diner...

[RE]

The mortality rate has not been reported on as of yet to my knowledge.

RE

Last week I read something that asserted that the fatality rate was actually pretty low. But that is now ancient, and there is no telling whether at the time it was said it was true or just happy talk.

I imagine it depends quite a bit on the general health of the population it hits and how good their nutrition is.  It's going to hit the poor people worse than the rich people.  They are generally physically weaker.

RE

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[AJ]

C5 and his posts are spot on.
I guess I'm a little surprised at how uninformed the regulars are here
I spent money (for a cheapskate that is something) and paid Peak Prosperity's (Chris & Adam) fee to get behind their paywall. They have really good information outside the paywall and a little more behind it.  And I know the criticism of them that they are profiting from doom/prepping. So what, that's an illogical attack (almost ad hominim) on the information they provide. This virus is probably 20x more deadly than the ordinary flu, has an infectivity (R naught) of somewhere between 2 and 6, and strikes those over 60 the worst AND we, in the U.S. have one of the worst healthcare systems in the modern world. C5 seems to know all this. So, is this a black swan that sends us into a financial collapse - good chance. Next few months will tell.
AJ

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[Surly1]

This virus is probably 20x more deadly than the ordinary flu, has an infectivity (R naught) of somewhere between 2 and 6, and strikes those over 60 the worst AND we, in the U.S. have one of the worst healthcare systems in the modern world. C5 seems to know all this. So, is this a black swan that sends us into a financial collapse - good chance. Next few months will tell.
AJ

And this is why some of us have been reticent to proclaim, "The Big One."

I reposted this article somewhere in the bowels of this place shortly after it appeared in The Atlantic... (Our shitty search function will not easily adduce it.) No matter. You are correct that "infectivity" is at the heart of pandemic.

The Deceptively Simple Number Sparking Coronavirus Fears
Here’s what the oft-cited R0 number tells us about the new outbreak—and what it doesn’t.

If R0  (R-naught) is 3, then on average every case will create three new cases. That seems incredibly straightforward, yet the article explains that it’s hard to calculate and tricky to interpret. If R0 is greater than 1, the infection will keep spreading, and if it’s less than 1, the outbreak will likely peter out. And R0 between 2 and 6 puts us in Stephen King "The Stand" territory.

The R0 estimates at the time of the writing of this article were specific to Wuhan, and early. Since this was early, I looked for updates. Here is the latest story I found:

R0: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like Coronavirus and Its Pandemic Potential

It’s important to realize that both the basic and effective R0 are situation-dependent. It’s affected by the properties of the pathogen, such as how infectious it is. It’s affected by the host population – for instance, how susceptible people are due to nutritional status or other illnesses that may compromise one’s immune system. And it’s affected by the environment, including things like demographics, socioeconomic and climatic factors.

For example, R0 for measles ranges from 12 to 18, depending on factors like population density and life expectancy. This is a large R0, mainly because the measles virus is highly infectious.

On the other hand, the influenza virus is less infectious, with its R0 ranging from 2 to 3. Influenza, therefore, does not cause the same explosive outbreaks as measles, but it persists due to its ability to mutate and evade the human immune system.

How Many Others Will Each Sick Person Infect?

The reproduction number, R0 for short, describes how many additional cases of a disease each infected person will cause during their infectious period. The numbers are a range, because they depend on a variety of factors that vary from situation to situation.

Disease	Reproduction number R0
Ebola, 2014	1.51 to 2.53
H1N1 Influenza, 2009	1.46 to 1.48
Seasonal Influenza	2 to 3
Measles	12 to 18
MERS	around 1
Polio	5 to 7
SARS	<1 to 2.75
Smallpox	5 to 7
Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCoV	1.4 to 4.08

I have found nothing anywhere to suggest that R0 for coronavirus is as high as six. And note above that R0 for measles is 12-18.

My point is that it is hard to generalize, especially when news dribs out from various sites, and is rotten with agenda.

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[RE]

C5 and his posts are spot on.
I guess I'm a little surprised at how uninformed the regulars are here
I spent money (for a cheapskate that is something) and paid Peak Prosperity's (Chris & Adam) fee to get behind their paywall. They have really good information outside the paywall and a little more behind it.  And I know the criticism of them that they are profiting from doom/prepping. So what, that's an illogical attack (almost ad hominim) on the information they provide. This virus is probably 20x more deadly than the ordinary flu, has an infectivity (R naught) of somewhere between 2 and 6, and strikes those over 60 the worst AND we, in the U.S. have one of the worst healthcare systems in the modern world. C5 seems to know all this. So, is this a black swan that sends us into a financial collapse - good chance. Next few months will tell.
AJ

I don't need to fork over money to Chris & Adam to know any of the shit they wanna get paid for.  All the info is available elsewhere for FREE.   

RE

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[AJ]

[

I don't need to fork over money to Chris & Adam to know any of the shit they wanna get paid for.  All the info is available elsewhere for FREE.   

RE

Yeah, but.
Chris and Adam have been producing videos for about the last 3 weeks that are not behind the paywall and in them Chris goes over the latest figures and research. Although Chris is not a epidemiologist he is at least a knowledgeable enough PhD who understands science (as many talking head M.D.s do not). All of the videos are relatively short (20 - 30 min.) and are well done. ALMOST everything else out in the "media" is crap: "no worse than the regular flu, move on nothing to see here". Our CDC is worse than crap, mindless spin and misinformation.
Surly,
As for the R0. Until the epidemic is all over the statistics are somewhat a black box. Can you trust the statistics coming out of China? No way. It's hard to even trust their published science. With the serious cases amounting to about 20% of infection and about a quarter of those requiring mechanical ventilation it will rapidly overwhelm U.S. hospitals (as it has done in China). IMHO we are in for a shit storm. C5 is right.
AJ

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[RE]

Although Chris is not a epidemiologist he is at least a knowledgeable enough PhD who understands science (as many talking head M.D.s do not).

Pfffftt.  I don't have a Ph.D. and I produce videos and understand science too.  WTF do I need to pay Chris to tell me shit I already know?     

RE

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[Surly1]

Surly,
As for the R0. Until the epidemic is all over the statistics are somewhat a black box. Can you trust the statistics coming out of China? No way. It's hard to even trust their published science. With the serious cases amounting to about 20% of infection and about a quarter of those requiring mechanical ventilation it will rapidly overwhelm U.S. hospitals (as it has done in China). IMHO we are in for a shit storm. C5 is right.
AJ

As I thought I made clear earlier, I trust nothing from anybody about anything, and generally read a variety of sources to triangulate the truth. I trust nothing from China. You can get a decent synthesis of officialdom's story from the Johns Hopkins site I posted earlier.

If I were you, I'd be welding the doors of my abbey shut, Prince Prospero.

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[azozeo]

To me....

It's important not to give my energy away to something that I have no control over.

I was speaking with Tommy, my neighbor & his wife who is a registered RN here at our local hospital, (with decades of tenure)
about this issue yesterday. The hospital now has to put masks under lock & key because the employees are stealing them for
personal use when in public.

I'm in the public arena 5 days a week & have noticed numerous older folks wearing them now in the grocery stores.

That god damn Fox News has these old farts all lathered up on this latest fear porn go-round.

Being cautious in public is a concern. For example if someone is going off with coughing & sneezing and the like, I will avoid them.

I also use local grown Bee Pollen daily as well as other natural ingredients to stay healthy. It's also important to keep a positive mental attitude
throughout the day.

When your numbers up & the grim reaper gives you the nod, it's time to go home. 

That's my story & I'm sticking to it.

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[Surly1]

To me....

It's important not to give my energy away to something that I have no control over.

I was speaking with Tommy, my neighbor & his wife who is a registered RN here at our local hospital, (with decades of tenure)
about this issue yesterday. The hospital now has to put masks under lock & key because the employees are stealing them for
personal use when in public.

I'm in the public arena 5 days a week & have noticed numerous older folks wearing them now in the grocery stores.

That god damn Fox News has these old farts all lathered up on this latest fear porn go-round.

Being cautious in public is a concern. For example if someone is going off with coughing & sneezing and the like, I will avoid them.

I also use local grown Bee Pollen daily as well as other natural ingredients to stay healthy. It's also important to keep a positive mental attitude
throughout the day.

When your numbers up & the grim reaper gives you the nod, it's time to go home. 

That's my story & I'm sticking to it.

Control the things you can, and don't worry about the rest is the only way to live. Keeps the stress down.
 

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[cernunnos5]

C5 Rule of Survival- Never pick a fight you cant win buy simply showing up.

Have you ever wondered why I don't participate in most of the fights on this forum. Perhaps its because I am a canadian. Perhaps its because I am too busy for bullshit. Perhaps its because I am from the street.

I want you to think about your argument.

Fox News started the corona virus. If that rationality is not full retard enough.....

Hang on. I have been doing this for a while.....and the most common version of DENIAL is some version of some persons last line of defense in saying,
"If my argument doesn't  win because it makes me uncomfortable that I chose not to take responsibility for my continued survival and that of others" is, If I die, its because of circumstances outside of my control and I am really brave because I mention I am going to die to back my argument, And maybe god wills it.... because making it absolute saying, that proves somehow that god is backing my claim proves it so"

Don't pull that shit on me. That's some white privileged shit on a stick. Get back to me when death is a real possibility, when you have walked past death on the street and you have prayed for death often so you don't have to see it over and over again anymore.

NF will appreciate Body Count reformed and Ice-T grew his balls back. Here is the song. Talk Shit. Get Shot.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia3LrAaEyA8

I have CLOSE friends that were computer specialist in the nuclear industry. They have said, any time I mention it, "I am sick of hearing people say Y2K didn't happen. The reason it didn't happen is because people like me stopped it".

Talk stupid when you are arguing with amateurs. Not me.

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[RE]

Have you ever wondered why I don't participate in most of the fights on this forum.

No, I never have.  It's obvious why you don't. 

RE

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[cernunnos5]

Perhaps that's to intimidating of a song. Here is some privileged folks covering the point I am making. You must of been high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zfYO9sZjrE

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[RE]

Perhaps that's to intimidating of a song. Here is some privileged folks covering the point I am making. You must of been high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zfYO9sZjrE

What's "too intimidating a song"?     

Who are the privileged folks?     

Who must have been high?     

RE

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[Nearingsfault]

C5 Rule of Survival- Never pick a fight you cant win buy simply showing up.

Have you ever wondered why I don't participate in most of the fights on this forum. Perhaps its because I am a canadian. Perhaps its because I am too busy for bullshit. Perhaps its because I am from the street.

I want you to think about your argument.

Fox News started the corona virus. If that rationality is not full retard enough.....

Hang on. I have been doing this for a while.....and the most common version of DENIAL is some version of some persons last line of defense in saying,
"If my argument doesn't  win because it makes me uncomfortable that I chose not to take responsibility for my continued survival and that of others" is, If I die, its because of circumstances outside of my control and I am really brave because I mention I am going to die to back my argument, And maybe god wills it.... because making it absolute saying, that proves somehow that god is backing my claim proves it so"

Don't pull that shit on me. That's some white privileged shit on a stick. Get back to me when death is a real possibility, when you have walked past death on the street and you have prayed for death often so you don't have to see it over and over again anymore.

NF will appreciate Body Count reformed and Ice-T grew his balls back. Here is the song. Talk Shit. Get Shot.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia3LrAaEyA8

I have CLOSE friends that were computer specialist in the nuclear industry. They have said, any time I mention it, "I am sick of hearing people say Y2K didn't happen. The reason it didn't happen is because people like me stopped it".

Talk stupid when you are arguing with amateurs. Not me.

yup guessed right body count was on heavy rotation when I used to drive deuces around. Oh all us 20 year old Rambos thought we were tough. Living in point st Charles then Vancouver's east end cured me of that conceit... I much prefer my current life of rural abundance. As to Corona virus yup this could be it. There is a poetic element if after the slow lead up to collapse it could be triggered by an as slow lead up to pandemic. Maybe this is what the Spanish flu would have looked like if there was the internet, scientific knowledge and effective quarantines. It's getting out of the bottle but oh so slowly... remains to see if it can stay alive through a warmer season.
Cheers...  NF

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[Nearingsfault]

Perhaps that's to intimidating of a song. Here is some privileged folks covering the point I am making. You must of been high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zfYO9sZjrE

I like brass against the machine for shock value but prefer the originals. All my classical music instrument players worship them...
You dont have 4 to 6 hours a day to devote to obscure videos and alt news. Go cut some firewood; Way more important. Taking my own advice I will go work on a quote for a solar install this spring and leave this one to the "experts."

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