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Offline Golden Oxen

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When CFS Fails
« on: September 23, 2013, 04:09:11 AM »
Thought I would start a new thread of when CFS seems to just plain fail. Lots of things puzzle me greatly and figured this might be a way to get some informed opinions from the Forum.

Some things seem so very obvious but just do not seem to come about. :icon_scratch:

Hopefully many other Diner's will present such situations as well for comment.    GO                                                                                                     

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: When CFS Fails: How Can There Be Deposits in European Banks?
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2013, 04:15:06 AM »
We all know of the raids on Cyprus savings accounts. RE said at the time, one thing is for sure there won't be a dime left in any banks of the weaker countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal etc.

It was as obvious to me as well, didn't even comment it seemed so obvious a conclusion and adjusted my thinking and financial planning for a massive run on the banks that never happened.

I just don't get it, they discuss all day over there how much they are going to grab next time?  :icon_scratch:
« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 05:01:08 AM by Golden Oxen »

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: When CFS Fails: Food Stamp Program Cut Backs
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2013, 04:25:52 AM »
How can a country currently flooding the banksters with 85 billion a month in free money, and loaning out hundreds of billions to insolvent foreign banks secretly; possibly discuss cutting back a paltry four or five billion from it's neediest citizens?

Is it a joke, a form of insanity, are they trying to ferment civil unrest to get rid of everyone?

Doesn't this deserve the label of completely lacking in CFS and any logic whatsoever?  :icon_scratch:

Offline RE

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2013, 04:26:26 AM »
Normalcy Bias in general is the obstacle to CFS.

People just don't BELIEVE it can happen to them in their 1st World Country banking system.  Cypress?  Small potato, far away.  It will take a major to go down before people will see this, and by then of course it is too late to do much about it.  Not that much can be done anyhow.

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Offline monsta666

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2013, 04:37:39 PM »
I think another obstacle that makes people blind to the obvious is the fact that once the level of danger reaches a certain level then you have a hard time registering the danger. It is a bit like the analogy of people living near the volcano. Too often it is the people who live right by the volcano who are most oblivious to its imminent eruption while the folks living a little further away are running for the hills.

The other thing to consider is the dynamics of this coming crisis. People are generally better equipped at dealing with acute crisis that occur suddenly and demand quick action. This crisis of overshoot, environmental destruction and debt accumulation is different in nature however. This crisis has built over time and things do not get worse immediately; they slowly deteriorate. This makes it difficult for people to see, and more important, to react to this crisis. Also unlike many acute crisis which can have difficult but quick solutions the steps to ameliorate this crisis take time to implement and the returns are uncertain and pushed into the future. This makes it hard to implement them because people are, for the most part, short-term thinkers who have a steep discount rate to things in the future. Will this generation give up the good life so future generations have a chance at something that is even a fraction of what we got? Not really, if you look at the actions of multiple generations. The silents, the baby boomers or even the millenniums or whatever you want to call them would all behave in similar manners if you dropped them in different eras. Still, the fact remains people value the present over the future and the future is getting royally screwed. If I have grandkids they are not going to like me much!

Finally I am not sure if you noticed GO but I feel the world is going mad. Part of this madness shows as people exhibit increasingly depressive attitudes. This is typically manifested with denial and people deny as it is a basic protective mechanism against depression. They will deny even if you present them with compelling facts on the reality of the situation as denial means not have confront depressing problems. This dynamic is more prominent if the problems presented have no obvious solution. In the end though a common feature of depression is that the sufferer will not really grasp the true weight of the words you speak no matter how compelling or how well you convey your thoughts. Quite often lessons can only be learnt through harsh experience and it is likely most people will not snap out of this trance until they hit rock bottom. Such is the fate of a lot of people I have known who personally suffered from depression. I see this is in society today.

If Uncle Bob is around I am sure he will call me out on my amateur attempts on being an armchair psychologist. Let's see if he bites.

Offline luciddreams

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Re: When CFS Fails: Food Stamp Program Cut Backs
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2013, 04:44:24 PM »


Doesn't this deserve the label of completely lacking in CFS and any logic whatsoever?  :icon_scratch:

well my answer to this would be that digibits have nothing to do with CFS.  They have nothing to do with physics or any other form of none digital reality.  They are an artifact of Matrix control, and due to the nature of electronic ones and zeros representing a global fiat currency, they can continue on to infinity...until the energy runs out. 

I hold that global currency is directly proportional to the energy left to keep the industrialized information economy going.  As long as there is the energy to pretend that we live on a planet with infinite energy, we'll have infinite digibits...and the money masters controlling the levers will continue with the floodgates opened 100% with their Orwellian New World Bravely Control Paradigm in full effect.  Reality is mostly digital now.  As in...the Matrix is 100% complete and in place.  Or rather, that digital reality is possible only because of the petroleum energy keeping the industrialized world going. 

Money creation has nothing to do with the physical world outside of energy. 

Offline luciddreams

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2013, 04:59:31 PM »



Finally I am not sure if you noticed GO but I feel the world is going mad. Part of this madness shows as people exhibit increasingly depressive attitudes. This is typically manifested with denial and people deny as it is a basic protective mechanism against depression. They will deny even if you present them with compelling facts on the reality of the situation as denial means not have confront depressing problems. This dynamic is more prominent if the problems presented have no obvious solution. In the end though a common feature of depression is that the sufferer will not really grasp the true weight of the words you speak no matter how compelling or how well you convey your thoughts. Quite often lessons can only be learnt through harsh experience and it is likely most people will not snap out of this trance until they hit rock bottom. Such is the fate of a lot of people I have known who personally suffered from depression. I see this is in society today.


I agree Monsta.  I know America is in complete denial.  Otherwise you wouldn't have intelligent people actually believing that the political process will do anything other than BAU.  All of the intelligent people I know will go on about whatever political party they believe in.  When I present the fact that all sides are bought and paid for via lobbyist, that DC is a revolving door between multinational corporations and legislators, that the voting machines are owned by these same ass holes (Diebold and Dick Cheney for instance) they'll agree it's fucked and then next time I see them it's like we never had that conversation.  They forget the conversation we had.  It's like a weird blind spot.  It can only be temporarily overcome, but BAU returns like herpes of the mind. 

It's strange.  But such is the power of denial I guess.   

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: When CFS Fails: Food Stamp Program Cut Backs
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2013, 03:15:48 AM »
How can a country currently flooding the banksters with 85 billion a month in free money, and loaning out hundreds of billions to insolvent foreign banks secretly; possibly discuss cutting back a paltry four or five billion from it's neediest citizens?

Is it a joke, a form of insanity, are they trying to ferment civil unrest to get rid of everyone?

Doesn't this deserve the label of completely lacking in CFS and any logic whatsoever?  :icon_scratch:
Oh no, it has a very definite logic, one that TPTB display all the time:

SEEING WHAT THEY CAN GET AWAY WITH

It explains almost everything they do:
Confiscating bank accounts in Cyprus? (Maybe, as long as just for "rich")
Bombing Syria? (No)
Ending QE-Infinity (Definitely not, don't even suggest it)

Of course, it's the logic my wife's 5-month old kitten displays, but what do you expect?
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2013, 03:18:02 AM »
It will take a major to go down before people will see this, and by then of course it is too late to do much about it.  Not that much can be done anyhow.
Well, yeah.  If much is done about it, and lots of people do start pulling money out of banks, that would precipitate the major crisis.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Eddie

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2013, 05:22:38 AM »
BAU returns like herpes of the mind. 

Real shortages, real power outages, and a failure of instant communication tech have not happened yet, and that's what it will take for people at large to take things seriously. There will be a paradigm shift at some point, I believe.
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Golden Oxen

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Re: When CFS Fails: Peak Oil Blunder
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2013, 06:11:44 PM »
Another time GO's attempt at using CFS on a situation was my flirtation with Peak oil theorists. :icon_scratch:

It was about fifteen year ago that I saw and read the same sort of graphs that RE has posted and said to myself at the time, how long can this oil burning madness go on.

Then I got onto the whole China thing, I was right on top of that one from Gold bug friends and discovered that they would soon overtake the US in auto sales, and that the cars they were selling weren't replacing older ones. Then I used my brains and threw India and South America into the mix. Went on an oil stock buying binge, that while not exactly disastrous was plenty costly.

Ten years later I ran into Nicole Foss and told myself the old standby for people who are wrong, "I was TOO EARLY". I doubled down and really got clobbered.

Everything came true, the Chinese have traffic jams now worse than ours, and India is producing cars like candy bars, but the oil is still flowing, and the price when adjusted for inflation and other things like a three dollar cup of coffee at Starbucks and the much improved mileage efficiency of new cars is really not that bad.

I have morphed into a Peak cheap oil genius  :laugh: at this point, but honestly cannot figure out where all this oil comes from, how it gets refined, how it all gets delivered to everyone, and the final kick in the ass to me is the fact that the  North sea and Mexico's Cantrell are close to their end.

Yes, I read the explanations and the shale oil stuff, but in  all honesty; it just makes no CFS.  :icon_scratch: :icon_scratch:

« Last Edit: September 25, 2013, 06:16:33 PM by Golden Oxen »

Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: When CFS Fails: Peak Oil Blunder
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2013, 08:20:48 PM »
Everything came true, the Chinese have traffic jams now worse than ours, and India is producing cars like candy bars, but the oil is still flowing, and the price when adjusted for inflation and other things like a three dollar cup of coffee at Starbucks and the much improved mileage efficiency of new cars is really not that bad.
Do you really think about what you're doing when you adjust for inflation?

Where did you get the numbers to adjust for inflation?

The Consumer Price Index?

Where did they get their numbers?  By collecting data on price increases.

What caused the price increases?

You of all the Diners should know half the answer better than anyone, GO: increases in the money supply.  That is one of the key points for the attractiveness of gold as an investment.

So, why not just use the money supply as your inflator?  Well, of course, there is the question of which one to use, M1, M2, M3, except the Fed stopped publishing the M3 in 2006.  And the real question is not the absolute money supply but the supply of money relative to the economy, so maybe you could work with something like M2 divided by GDP.

But as I said, that's only half the answer, the fiscal half, the part that makes fiat currency worth less compared to goods and services.  But is there something at work making everything more expensive?  (I think RE would chime in with a big YES here)  How about declining EROEI for energy resources?

This then is the reason why CFS fails when you adjust petroleum investments for inflation, because requiring more energy input for a given amount of energy output is a major cause of inflation.
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline Golden Oxen

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Boehner: Obama Stubbornly Refusing to End Crisis I Created

                                                     
boro boehner shut
boro boehner shut

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) said that he was disappointed after meeting with President Obama at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, telling reporters, “The President is stubbornly refusing to end the crisis I created.”

“Government is about teamwork,” Mr. Boehner continued. “I’ve done my part by putting together an entirely optional crisis that has shut down the government and will throw thousands out of work. Now it’s up to the President to do his part by ending it.”

Mr. Boehner said that he was “flabbergasted” that the President was looking to him to bring the current government shutdown to an end: “So after doing all of the hard work to push the country to the brink, I’m supposed to pull it back, too? How about you pitching in a little, Mr. President?”

The House Speaker said that he hoped he did not have to manufacture another entirely avoidable crisis over the debt ceiling in order to stir the President to action. “Quite frankly, orchestrating these unnecessary stalemates takes a lot of energy and I could really use a rest,” he said.

But Mr. Boehner seemed pessimistic that the President “got the message.”

“Because of my actions, thousands of federal workers have already been furloughed,” he said. “How many more people do I have to throw out on the street before the President wakes up?”


                                                   
 
ANDY BOROWITZ banner N
ANDY BOROWITZ banner N
Photograph by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty.

www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport?printable=true&currentPage=all  :icon_study: :laugh:


Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: When CFS Fails
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2013, 03:42:06 PM »
The furlough/shutdown recieved 1 days newsworthiness locally, but it was spun as irresponsible 'tea party' subbranch doing.

but then Im afraid he above ^ looks like a moron and sounds like an imbecile. Whats his point, the govt spending is out of control and unsustainable, but the books can be balanced without shrinking big gov?

Does not seem to me like anyone is too phased about it. JHK suggested a loss of confidence, which should logically follow, but stocks are still up. Michael snyder sees it as a charade. Maybe the first boulder in an avalanche....
ELEVATE YOUR GAME

 

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