AuthorTopic: ...and so it BEGINS  (Read 27784 times)

Offline RE

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...and so it BEGINS
« on: March 02, 2014, 01:08:05 AM »

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on March 2, 2014



Discuss this article at the Geopolitics Table inside the Diner



The Frosbite Falls Daily Rant is the latest Feature of the Collapse Cafe on the Doomstead Diner.  It can be found daily on the Homepage of the Diner on the right menu bar.


The transcript for this rant can be found at the bottom of this article.


Day 2 has arrived here in the Valve War between Ukraine and Russia, centered mainly in Crimea at the moment, but bound to move Eastward as time goes by here.  I covered a few of the main issues in the daily rant yesterday, for today we will look a little more closely at the logistics involved here.


As you can see from the Infographic at the top of the page, this isn’t a small military exercise by any means.  More than 10,000 troops are being repositioned, which is quite a tidy sum considering the Ruskies were downsizing their Military.









2008 Russian military reform


(H/T Newzy Joe on the Diner for this table)


While the Ruskie military is still pretty large, you have to remember that all “active personnel” are not “Boots on the Ground” aka Grunts who do the dirty work and get regularly sent to the Great Beyond in one of these actions.  So Vlad is committing quite a large percentage of what is left of his military assets to try and take control of Ukraine.


While the mostly Russian speaking eastern Ukrainians are mostly lined up with Vlad, even they don’t necessarily want to become a vassal state of Russia again.  They only got out from under the old USSR hegemony 20 years ago!  The Western half of the population definitely isn’t too happy about this state of affairs, so you basically have now a War in all but official declaration, and even that gets closer all the time.


NATO and Obama-sama still haven’t done anything but bluster, and it is unlikely they will do much on the military end at this time.  The NATO countries don’t have that many troops they can call up at the drop of a hat (or bomb), and most available FSoA military assets are currently deployed far and wide at a bazillion global Military bases as well as being mired down in places like Afghanistan.


However, just because they don’t have military assets to throw at this problem doesn’t make them helpless, they do have financial ones.  Accelerating Capital Flight out of both Ukraine and Russia can do a lot more damage to Vlad the Impaler’s political control than a Firefight in Sevastopol.  So this is probably where we have to look for the Action to be next week from the NATO/western Illuminati end.


http://www.downloadswallpapers.com/wallpapers/2012/agosto/medio/navios-e-naves-no-oceano-wallpaper-21713.jpgLogistically speaking, all the “Big Power” Militaries of the Ruskies, the Chinese and the FSoA are over-extended past what they can actually support anymore to try and control far flung regions of the earth.  The Chinese are buying up African Land and Oz Mines, but they need their own Million Man Army right at home to keep control.  The Ruskies have the same problem, their last failed adventure outside of their own region in Afghanistan was  a magnificent failure, and subsequent adventures inside their sphere have not faired much better.  All their border states like Georgia are contantly in virtul revolt; just keeping the lid on there stretches them pretty thin.  For the FSoA part, we send Carrier Groups willy-nilly around the world as a “show of force” in each latest Hotspot, but we only got like 11 or so of these Carrier Groups I believe.  Drop a couple in the Mediterranean, a couple in the Indian Ocean, a couple in the South China Sea, a couple in the North Atlantic, a couple off the coast of Brasil and one in the Gulf of Mejico and POOF, you are frehs OUT of Carrier Groups!  Not to mention all a Carrier Group does at best is to allow you to control the local Sea Lanes and drop Death From Above on the nearby locals, they don’t allow you to put enough Boots on the ground in ANY of these places to do much more than take over a few Goobermint Buildings in the central city, for that you gotta mobilize a lot of troops ships, land tanks and APC yadda yadda.


In all likelihood at this point, it appears that the “Powerful” Goombermints and Militaries of Russia, china and the FSoA will soon be engaged much more in keeping their own Local Populations in control, so trying to control anywhere else is pretty much a non-starter.  Ukraine is close enough physically to Russia with enough traditional ties they can make this physical attempt one more time, but they will face a constant state of revolt inside Ukraine, just like Georgia and the rest of the peripheral states now really starting to hurt.


The problems in Ukraine will move themselves quickly enough to Poland, Hungary, Belarus etc, and the Western European states will see Blowback as Gazprom energy gets shut off at critical Valves through Central Europe.  This further roils the markets and their economies, already very shaky to begin with, so they too will begin to topple.


Building up this whole interconnected Global system has been ongoing for 500 years here.  It will come apart a whole lot quicker than that.  The World Trade Center is the best analogy I can come up with here.  The project had it’s inception right near the end of WWII in 1943, took until the 60s to get funding, and didn’t open up until 1973.


The idea of establishing a World Trade Center in New York City was first proposed in 1943. The New York State Legislature passed a bill authorizing New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey to begin developing plans for the project[11] but the plans were put on hold in 1949.[12] During the late 1940s and 1950s, economic growth in New York City was concentrated in Midtown Manhattan. To help stimulate urban renewal in Lower Manhattan, David Rockefeller suggested that the Port Authority build a World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan.[13]


Initial plans, made public in 1961, identified a site along the East River for the World Trade Center.[14] As a bi-state agency, the Port Authority required approval for new projects from the governors of both New York and New Jersey. New Jersey Governor Robert B. Meyner objected to New York getting a $335 million project.[15] Toward the end of 1961, negotiations with outgoing New Jersey Governor Meyner reached a stalemate.[16]


At the time, ridership on New Jersey’s Hudson and Manhattan Railroad (H&M) had declined substantially from a high of 113 million riders in 1927 to 26 million in 1958 after new automobile tunnels and bridges had opened across the Hudson River.[17] In a December 1961 meeting between Port Authority director Austin J. Tobin and newly elected New Jersey Governor Richard J. Hughes, the Port Authority offered to take over the Hudson & Manhattan Railroad to have it become the Port Authority Trans-Hudson (PATH). The Port Authority also decided to move the World Trade Center project to the Hudson Terminal building site on the west side of Lower Manhattan, a more convenient location for New Jersey commuters arriving via PATH.[16] With the new location and Port Authority acquisition of the H&M Railroad, New Jersey agreed to support the World Trade Center project.[18]




A good 20-30 years to get those buildings up.  They came down in seconds.  So it will go with this as well, when it Blows, it will Blow Big and it will Blow Fast.  In the words of Leonard Cohen,



Everybody knows it’s coming apart

Take one last look at this Sacred Heart

Before it blows

And everybody knows











Transcript of the Ukraine-Russia War Rant


Greetings Doomfans, and welcome to another edition of the Frosbite Falls Daily Rant.


Tonight we are revisiting a topic from a few nights ago, the ongoing spinout in Ukraine. A few nights ago it was a Civil War in progress, tonight it is a WORLD WAR in the making.


Reason? Vlad the Impaler, the Noble ex-head of the KGB over in Ruskieville decided since he could not or would not Pony Up $35-50B in FOREX scratch the Ukrainians need to keep their version of the Industrial Society running, the better option was simply to roll over them with APCs, Helicopters and Troop ships!


On the NATO side of this battle, John Kerry offered up chump change of $1B in loans from the sharks at the IMF, which barely could keep an Oligarch in Maseratis and Airbus Double Decker Private Jets for a week or two, much less pay off on Pensions to the Ukrainian Population.


Why does EITHER side here give a Flying Fuck who is wandering the halls of the Ukrainian Parliament and running the show there? Why not just leave them alone and let them work out their OWN fucking problems?


Two main reasons. First off, Ukraine has a shit load of pipelines running across the territory which ship Gazprom Energy from Mother Russia over to Western Europe, which is a MAJOR source of FOREX revenue for the Ruskie Oligarchs, including of course Vlad the Impaler.


Second reason is Ukraine is (like everybody else) in HUGE debt to the TBTF banks, and if they don’t get some new Hard Currency FOREX Scratch to roll over their old loans, they will default. This will play nasty HAVOC with the Russian banks, which have the biggest exposure, but of course all the TBTF banks in the West are exposed to this mess also in the Daisy Chain Circle Jerk of derivatives, interbank loans and Worthless Collateral they used to rehypothecate still other loans made elsewhere. If anybody here on either side has to write down Ukrainian debt, the TBTF banks will have to pay a LOT of Overtime to their Accountants so they can cover it up and not be blatantly Insolvent, just Shadow Insolvent.


For their own part, the Ukrainians hold one Ace in the Hole, they actually have their fingers on the valves that transit NG over from Mother Russia to Eurotrash. If SOMEBODY doesn’t pony up some more money for them to keep going here, the average J6P Ukrainian has NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE, so why not blow a few Pipelines and pass the Suffering on to the folks to the West and East of them? They shut down the pipelines, the Eurotrash runs short on energy to keep the Lights on, and the ruskies run short of Forex to keep the Rouble floating as a Happy Currency. Everybody suffers with them!


Herein lies the big PROBLEM with Vlad the Impaler’s physical takeover of the apparatus of Goobermint in Ukraine, the Western interests don’t necessarily have to retaliate with rolling their own APCs and Helicopter Gunships into Ukraine on a UN Sponsored “Peacekeeping” Mission, they can simply mount a concerted Financial Attack on the Rouble. Putin’s Goobermint already has plenty of issues maintaining control over the pretty vast Ruskie territory (even though shrunk from the Lacyon days Back in the USSR), if the Rouble gets driven down in FOREX trade and they can’t sell NG to Western Europe, their own economy will flush down the toilet in a big hurry.


For the Ruskies to take control of this problem on the Physical Level, they have to control the ENTIRE transit of Energy from the Ruskie Gas Fields across to the Eurotrash Konsumers of that energy, and they cannot do that simply by holding Crimea, which they also can’t do with a few 1000 Shock Troops. All that enables them to do is hold a few Goobermint Buildings and install some Puppet Leaders there. They have to roll across the WHOLE of Ukraine, and they have to not only prop up Puppet Leaders in Goobermint, they have to keep the local VERY unhappy population from dropping a few IEDs at critical nodes in the NG pipeline transport system. That will take a LOT more boots on the ground to do, and it is highly questionable that Vlad the Impaler could bring such a force to bear. Very similar to NATO trying to control the energy transit down in MENA with so many of the locals hostile to them.


It remains to be seen how this will play out medium to long term, and in what manner. However, both sides are between a Rock & a Hard Place. Under no circumstances can I see will the Energy flow through Ukraine continue Unimpeded. This will negatively affect all of Europe and Russia too. Neither side can back down here, so escalation seems likely. Duck and cover Doomers, we are now at DefCon Orange.


And that’s all the Doom, this time until next time here on the Frostbite Falls Daily Rant.



 


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Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2014, 05:09:58 AM »
Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic "Tale of the Tape"

Curious how Ukraine, which with its population of 44 million and size of 603,628 square km makes it the largest single country entirely in Europe, stacks up against Russia? The following infographic should answer some questions regarding the (im)balance of power.



And as a follow up, here is a map showing the location of the various sites of the Russian Navy in the Crimea. These will be the first sites to see a surge in Russian troop presence.


« Last Edit: March 02, 2014, 08:00:10 AM by Surly1 »
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2014, 05:25:16 AM »
What is missing in those stats is wheat and food production, which we know from history that the rest of russia does not make enough to compensate for that region going offline in previous scorched earth campaigns through there eg napoleon, hitler, and millions of russians starve without the produce.
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Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2014, 06:39:10 AM »
Good point.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2014, 06:51:20 AM »
WWIII?

It was always coming, one way or another, wasn't it? About oil, about water, about finance, about war pigs comparing ball size.

Western countries attack the Rubel, Vlad cuts off Nat Gas, Europe goes dark and cold, late winter.

It's hard to imagine Americans getting serious about the idea of fighting the Ruskies. But then, it hardly matters anymore, what the people think, so divorced are TPTB from the daily goings on of the typical citizen.

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD   


Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2014, 08:14:56 AM »
WWIII?

It was always coming, one way or another, wasn't it? About oil, about water, about finance, about war pigs comparing ball size.

Western countries attack the Rubel, Vlad cuts off Nat Gas, Europe goes dark and cold, late winter.

It's hard to imagine Americans getting serious about the idea of fighting the Ruskies. But then, it hardly matters anymore, what the people think, so divorced are TPTB from the daily goings on of the typical citizen.

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD

It probably was/is. It's 100 years after 1914, so now is as good a time as any.

Given that we are people constantly in a rush and on a deadline, we lose track of the great sweep of history. Events in the Crimea can well be seen as intermediate-term fallout from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a process still unfolding. It can even be seen as fallout from the Crimean War of the mid-19th century and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Juan Cole-- 

A New Crimean War? (Update: Stuff’s Getting Real)
By Juan Cole | Mar. 2, 2014

Tensions have continued to build in Ukraine’s Crimea since I wrote about it a few days ago.

On Saturday, The Russian parliament authorized President Valdimir Putin to send troops into Ukraine to defend Russian Interests. . A pro,-Russian premier has been installed in the Crimean autonomous region, who may call a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia.

On Friday, shadowy armed men, apparently pro-Russian, began patrolling Crimea’s airports .The interim Ukraine government, meanwhile, is charging that Russian troops are trying to take control of the peninsula (where ethnic Russians now predominate, though it had earlier been a Turkic, Muslim area).

I had written:
Quote
The Russian-speaking population of the Crimean Peninsula in the Ukraine is upset by the popular movement in the west of the country that has overthrown president Viktor Yanukovych and is said to be forming militias. On some government buildings, Ukrainian flags have been replaced by Russian ones. Sevastopol is an important Black Sea port of call for Russian naval vessels, and Moscow has a base there.
Of all the ways in which Russian President Vladimir Putin will see the revolution in the Ukraine as dangerous to Russian interests, the potential loss of Crimea as a Russian ‘near abroad’ is among the more serious. Crimea was given to the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine by Nikita Krushchev (himself Ukrainian) in the 1950s, but more Russians think they have a claim on Crimea than think they have a claim on Chechnya.
US national security adviser Susan Rice has already warned Russia against sending troops into the Ukraine. But what about the sailors at the base in Crimea? They’re already there.

From about 1050 Crimea came under Turkic rule, later Mongol, and later Turkic again. From 1441 until the late 1700s it was a Muslim Khanate that became an Ottoman vassal state. In the late 1700s it was annexed by the Tsarist Russian Empire. By 1900 Crimean Tatars, previously the major population, had been reduced to half of residents. After the Soviet revolution they were reduced to a quarter. Then Stalin forcibly deported many of them to Central Asia. So Crimea was over the two centuries after its incorporation into the Russian Empire largely russified and its indigenous Muslim population swamped or displaced. Hundreds of thousands of Muslim Tatars remained or have returned, but they are still a minority.

What Crimea is best remembered for in the West is the Crimean War of the 1850s. Is there a parallel to today’s tensions? The conflict was initially between the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire. In some ways some roots of the conflict lay in Ottoman Jerusalem in the 1840s and early 1850s, where Russia perceived that its claim on dominance of the holy places there through its Eastern Orthodox clients were being set aside by the Sultan in favor of those of the French and their Roman Catholic clients. Russia also coveted the Balkans and Istanbul (the Byzantium of the Eastern Roman Empire). When a conflict broke out between the princes of the Principalities (now Romania), who were nominally Ottoman vassals, and the sultan, the Russian backed the princes and sent in troops. Then it seemed Russia might fight all the way down to Istanbul and take it.

Britain and France did not want the Russian Empire to take over the Middle East, as it might have done if Istanbul fell to the Tsar. Britain reached India from the Mediterranean through Egypt and the Red Sea or through Syria-Iraq and the Persian Gulf. London did not want St. Petersburg to have the ability to cut it off from its rich Indian possessions. Likewise the French had clients in Lebanon and were a major power in the Mediterranean, and did not want Russia supplanting them.

Instead of trying to fight on land in the distant Balkans, the British and French proposed to the Ottomans a joint expedition across the Black Sea to the Crimean Peninsula.


At the time there was no railroad linking the Crimea to St. Petersburg, and the Tsar could not easily get troops down there at short notice. In essence the Franco-British and Ottoman forces took Crimea hostage to forestall further Russian advances in the Balkans. Although the British Empire got the poem “Charge of the Light Brigades” out of the war, actually it was predominantly an Ottoman and French campaign– the British forces supplied were smaller.

Tennyson wrote:
“Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
  Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns’ he said:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldiers knew
  Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
  Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
  Rode the six hundred.”


The Crimea ploy worked. The war came to a halt. The Great Powers signed the Treaty of London of 1856. It was an important document in diplomatic history. It foreshadowed the United Nations Charter in guaranteeing the Ottoman Empire against any further Russian aggression, with France and Britain pledging collective security. It also pledged the Ottomans to make their Christian subjects equal to the Muslim ones, setting the stage for Ottomanism as a national imperial ideal (it didn’t work in the long run).

--As in the 1850s, Russia is claiming as its sphere of influence a territory in eastern Europe (Ukraine today, Romania and other Balkan lands in the 1850s).
--As in the 1850s, the West has an interest in seeing Russian power blocked from that part of Europe (today because of their desire to incorporate Ukraine into Europe and possibly ultimately NATO; in the 1850s because they wanted the weak Ottomans to control the Middle East and to give them passage rights through it, rather than having to drive a similar bargain with a powerful Russian Empire).
--As in the 1850s, one flash point in this geopolitical struggle is Crimea and its Russian naval facilities. Today, the Russian fleet based at Sevastopol plies the Black Sea and goes through the Bosporus Straits to Tartus, Syria’s Mediterranean naval port.
--As in the 1850s, the West worries about Russian hegemony in the Middle East, with Syria being today’s flashpoint. Russia supports the Baath government of Bashar al-Assad, whereas the West largely supports the Free Syrian Army (but not the al-Qaeda affiliates among the rebels). Russia also has better relations with Iran than does the West.

The parallels are hardly exact. But the place of a major Black Sea port in contests between Atlantic powers and Russia has remained a stable feature of geopolitics for over a century and a half.
—–

So WHD, to your point, the West checked Russian expansion into the Middle east in 1856, and the British got a nifty poem for their dead.
Wonder what we'll get this time?
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2014, 08:42:29 AM »
WWIII?

Hardly. While the most current events provide fodder for the most recent round of collapse hysteria (remember North Korea not more than a few months ago?), Russia parking troops in Ukraine generates about the same amount of gutless posturing on the part of American administrations as...oh...Georgia did. Someone remind me, are there still troops in Georgia? Did anyone go to WWIII to defend them? Nah.

Ukraine wants to be eastern? Fine. Wants to look to the west? Fine. Pretty much irrelevant most everywhere else.Watched Kerry on the tube this morning, and his ridiculous blustering is a giveaway. Sanctions! he says. Diplomacy! he says. Unfair! he says. Please. Just another lackey that thinks a stern warning has far more power than a single AK47 in the hands of the right guy. If Teddy Roosevelt and Putin can understand this, why can't the current administration?

Quote from: WHD

I have no desire to kill Russians, Chinese, or anyone else. Have your global war. I'll tend to my fruit trees, gardens; heal the wounded.

WHD

Combine this:

http://www.minneapolis.afrc.af.mil/

with this:



and I'm guessing that fruit trees and gardens aren't the right preps for that particular brand of doom.


Don't drone bomb me, don't nuke me, MKing, because I don't support your desire to drop nukes on Russia, China, by way of preemption.

WHD

Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2014, 08:53:55 AM »

Hardly. While the most current events provide fodder for the most recent round of collapse hysteria (remember North Korea not more than a few months ago?), Russia parking troops in Ukraine generates about the same amount of gutless posturing on the part of American administrations as...oh...Georgia did. Someone remind me, are there still troops in Georgia? Did anyone go to WWIII to defend them? Nah.


In the short run, I would tend to agree. Both sides have more to gain from the sale of Russian hydrocarbons to Europe than the not-sale. Follow the money, etc.

Strength and noisemaking ability of the Right Sector/Sloboda is a real joker in the deck. These folks have already proven the ability to construct homemade incendiaries in Kiev. Construction of IEDs to annoy NG pipelines is not a stretch.

Long term, if Russia can make their de facto occupation stand (and it says here they will), then you can only wonder where the next "Test of American Resolve™" will come. The neocons whose paymasters already guide FSoA foreign policy already have their silk pajamas in a knot over being checked by Vlad in Syria, now this.  Won't set well with the phony macho William Kristol crowd of hypocrites and posers.

"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2014, 08:56:05 AM »
Quote
So WHD, to your point, the West checked Russian expansion into the Middle east in 1856, and the British got a nifty poem for their dead.
Wonder what we'll get this time?

Nuclear war, if Big Stick MKing has his way, preemptive show of force. End the war early this time, instead of late, like in Japan. No bigger cock than an ICBM.

WHD


Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2014, 12:31:00 PM »
Thoughts from Ian Welsh. He makes sense.

Some Perspective on Russian Intervention in the Ukraine

by Ian Welsh

1) The journalists talking about anschluss are morons.  This is not Germany in the 30s, Russia is not going to try and conquer Europe.

2) The Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries, and has been independent for about 20 years.

3) The Russian Army is not the Red Army: it is not capable of conquering Europe.

4) The Crimea is majority Russian already and had been part of Russia, yes, for centuries.

5) Russia was NEVER going to allow Ukraine to kick them out of Sevastopol and the Crimea.

6) Americans spent 5 billion dollars promoting the Ukrainian revolution.  That’s a lot of money.  Granted that the Ukrainian government was a corrupt bunch of thugs, Putin is not crazy to think the West fomented the revolution.  The West DID foment revolution.  There was fertile ground, but 5 billion dollars is not chicken feed.

7) The West is not going to fight a war for the Ukraine.  Russia is.

8) The East of Ukraine is still pro-Russia.

9) What the Ukrainian parliament did with armed protesters standing over them is not, ummm, necessarily what they would have done without guns being waved in their general direction.

Analysis: it is highly unlikely that Putin will go for Kiev, though I won’t categorically rule it out.  Crimea will be part of Russia, whether de-facto or de-jure.  The eastern parts (which is where all the industry is, by the way), may be partitioned off as a rump state, or brought into Russia.  In both cases, if it happens, referendums will be held.  They will not need to cheat on them, as long as they don’t go too far West, they’ll win them fairly.

I will be frank: the West needs to stop fomenting these revolutions.  Russia is not going to allow NATO to creep up to their border without taking action.  You’d have to be crazy to think that Russia was going to allow the Ukraine, including Crimea, to become part of NATO, and yes, that was the West’s (or rather, America’s) endgame.  (The Europeans think the Americans are crazy to be baiting the bear like this.  But the Europeans need Russian natural gas.)

Russia is no longer the USSR.  It is not an existential threat to the West, or even to Europe.  It is a corrupt resource state with a big army and nukes which controls a lot of territory, but the idea that it would win a full-on conventional war with America is deranged.

All the US is accomplishing here is driving Russia into the country which is actually a danger to American dominance: China.  This was totally unnecessary, but the entire thrust of US policy since the USSR has been to try and cripple Russia, starting with the completely deranged “shock doctrine”  economic policies foisted on Russia right after the USSR’s collapse: doctrines which lead to an actual collapse in Russian population.

Putin thinks the US and the West are Russia’s enemies. He is not wrong.

Can you imagine if Russia spent 5 billion dollars fomenting a pro-Russian revolution in Mexico?  How would the US react? (And let us not forget the US invasions of Grenada and Panama).  If the US had broken up and California was its own state, would the rump US state feel they had a right to intervene in it?

Also, once more, the IMF will give Ukraine money in exchange for “reforms”. If you think those reforms will be good for the Ukraine, you are not just sadly mistaken, you are an idiot, or I hope you’re well paid to have such opinions.  IMF reforms do not help ordinary people.

Finally, if I were a Western Ukrainian, I probably would have supported the revolution: Yanukovych was just too corrupt and too brutal. This isn’t about choosing sides, this is about understanding them.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2014, 01:07:33 PM »
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?
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Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2014, 02:19:11 PM »
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2014, 03:33:05 PM »
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?

Basically Russia's problem is the inability to create organic credit, that is why Ukraine needs the IMF.  If somebody doesn't issue them credit, they got no money to buy energy.

The Military option is Vlad the Impaler's solution to not being able to offer credit comparable to what the IMF can offer.  The problem for Ukraine is they will go down right along with Russia as the Rouble gets destroyed in the FOREX market.  There will be a run on the Rouble for sure, or rather an acceleration of a run already underway.

This is going to create a LOT of problems for Putin.

RE
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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2014, 03:59:43 PM »

RE
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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2014, 04:19:36 PM »
I'll go out on a limb to fill in the blank of what youre saying RE, and preempt the question WHY attack the rouble, as it would seem most sane and sensible to facilitate BAU in energy sale and transit for all the players? And the possible answer would be, why foment revolution in the first place, if not to try and secure all energy sources for yourself, or to open another base or ICBM range.

ELEVATE YOUR GAME

 

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