AuthorTopic: ...and so it BEGINS  (Read 27783 times)

Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2014, 05:11:45 PM »
Yep, that about sums it up nicely. The only question I would ask is to the statement that the europeans think the americans are crazy poking the bear. If the europeans are inviting a bk and corrupt country into the EU what the hell do they have to gain themself except nato encirclement of the bear?

I have no idea. What does NATO have to offer aside from the blandishments of the IMF?  And when did you last hear of a country whose government received IMF loans where the citizens did not emerge butthurt?

Basically Russia's problem is the inability to create organic credit, that is why Ukraine needs the IMF.  If somebody doesn't issue them credit, they got no money to buy energy.

The Military option is Vlad the Impaler's solution to not being able to offer credit comparable to what the IMF can offer.  The problem for Ukraine is they will go down right along with Russia as the Rouble gets destroyed in the FOREX market.  There will be a run on the Rouble for sure, or rather an acceleration of a run already underway.

This is going to create a LOT of problems for Putin.

RE

Vlad deployed 20,000 troops that created facts on the ground that will take several hundreds of thousands to reverse-- troops which ain't arriving. Shit's not happening no matter how many pulls on the crack pipe John Kerry takes. Vlad bought Crimea cheap.

If you follow CHS, the run on the ruble would involve coordination between the Deep State and Wall Street. Will be interesting to see what happens. Their respective interests may be still sufficiently intertwined as to make that possible.

I think Putin has fewer problems than you do. His biggest problems are lack of Forex if the Ukronazis bomb his pipelines. WHO is going to dislodge him?

If they do that, then he goes in and "rescues Europe from the cold and dark."
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2014, 05:35:11 PM »
Vlad bought Crimea cheap.

What Vlad bought was a lot of Administrative headaches that will be a constant drain on his military resources.  He deployed 20K Troops to take control, he has to KEEP 20K troops there to maintain control.  Just like we have to keep troops in Baghdad and Afghanistan to keep control there.  Vlad doesn't even get any Oil from this, all he gets is control over the Valves so he can ship Ruskie NG from Mother Russia to Krautland in return for some Euro Scratch.

A run on the Rouble is already underway, here's what it looks like from the POV of Cayman Islands Dolars, a popular tax haven for Oligarchs:


This adventure is going to be very costly in terms of Capital Flight out of Ruskieville.

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Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2014, 05:54:42 PM »
Quote from: RE
He deployed 20K Troops to take control, he has to KEEP 20K troops there to maintain control.  Just like we have to keep troops in Baghdad and Afghanistan to keep control there.  Vlad doesn't even get any Oil from this, all he gets is control over the Valves so he can ship Ruskie NG from Mother Russia to Krautland in return for some Euro Scratch.

I don't know, RE. From many reports Crimea is eat up with Russians and Russian speakers who are scared shitless of the so-called nationalists (read Right Sektor/Sloboda/nazis) and who look to the Russians for protection. On th other hand, whothehell knows what the facts are on the ground? Supposedly many Ukrainian units have gone over to the Russians. So I don't think those troops will be there forever, and I don't think it costs him much.

We'll know better soon enough, though.

"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2014, 05:58:38 PM »
...if natural gas prices in America begin to revolve around the marginal price internationally, the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.


Quote
Feb 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department on Tuesday approved exports from Sempra Energy's Cameron liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Louisiana as the Obama administration moves forward with its goal of expanding the global market for the fuel.

The conditional approval of exports from the terminal to countries with which the United States does not have free trade agreements, such as India and Japan, was the sixth approval by the department since 2011, and the first since mid-November.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/11/sempra-cameron-approval-idUSL2N0LG10A20140211

Hmmmmm. Very interesting, especially in this context.

« Last Edit: March 02, 2014, 06:03:26 PM by Surly1 »
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2014, 06:00:51 PM »
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the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.

From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)

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Offline Surly1

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2014, 06:15:52 PM »
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

If the Ukraine wants something close to prosperity, this is a sideshow.  The first thing they have to do is destroy their own oligarchs: take away their money and power.

But remember how the West squealed when Putin brought his oligarchs to heel?  Or at Venezuelan redistribution?  Oligarchs are even more sacrosanct in the West than the East.  The IMF would never allow the Ukraine to destroy their oligarchs and throw them all in jail.

The next step after that would be solidly reorient to China.  They want Ukraine’s food, and  the Chinese are willing to pay a premium for the resources they buy, at least by developing world standards (and that this point, that’s what Ukraine is.)  What, exactly the Ukraine thinks it will sell the West is beyond me: their Soviet era factories don’t make anything we want, and the West heavily subsidizes its own agricultural production.

***

The Rape of Ukraine: Phase Two Begins

By F. William Engdahl

February 28, 2014 "Information Clearing House - "21st Century Wire" - The events in Ukraine since November 2013 are so astonishing as almost to defy belief.

An legitimately-elected (said by all international monitors) Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, has been driven from office, forced to flee as a war criminal after more than three months of violent protest and terrorist killings by so-called opposition.

His “crime” according to protest leaders was that he rejected an EU offer of a vaguely-defined associate EU membership that offered little to Ukraine in favor of a concrete deal with Russia that gave immediate €15 billion debt relief and a huge reduction in Russian gas import prices. Washington at that point went into high gear and the result today is catastrophe.

A secretive neo-nazi military organization reported linked to NATO played a decisive role in targeted sniper attacks and violence that led to the collapse of the elected government.

But the West is not finished with destroying Ukraine. Now comes the IMF with severe conditionalities as prerequisite to any Western financial help.

After the famous leaked phone call of US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (photo, left) with the US Ambassador in Kiev, where she discussed the details of who she wanted in a new coalition government in Kiev, and where she rejected the EU solutions with her “Fuck the EU” comment,[1] the EU went it alone. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed that he and his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, fly to Kiev and try to reach a resolution of the violence before escalation. Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski was asked to join. The talks in Kiev included the EU delegation, Yanukovich, the three opposition leaders and a Russian representative. The USA was not invited.[2]

The EU intervention without Washington was extraordinary and reveals the deeping division between the two in recent months. In effect it was the EU saying to the US State Department, “F*** the US,” we will end this ourselves.

After hard talks, all major parties including the majority of protesters, agreed to new presidential elections in December, return to the 2004 Constitution and release of Julia Tymoshenko from prison. The compromise appeared to end the months long chaos and give a way out for all major players.

The diplomatic compromise lasted less than twelve hours. Then all hell broke loose.

Snipers began shooting into the crowd on February 22 in Maidan or Independence Square. Panic ensued and riot police retreated in panic according to eyewitnesses. The opposition leader Vitali Klitschko withdrew from the deal, no reason given. Yanukovich fled Kiev.[3]

The question unanswered until now is who deployed the snipers? According to veteran US intelligence sources, the snipers came from an ultra-right-wing military organization known as Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People’s Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO).

The leader of UNA-UNSO, Andriy Shkil, ten years ago became an adviser to Julia Tymoshenko. UNA-UNSO, during the US-instigated 2003-2004 “Orange Revolution”, backed pro-NATO candidate Viktor Yushchenko against his pro-Russian opponent, Yanukovich. UNA-UNSO members provided security for the supporters of Yushchenko and Julia Tymoshenko on Independence Square in Kiev in 2003-4.[4]

UNA-UNSO is also reported to have close ties to the German National Democratic Party (NDP). [5]

Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 the crack-para-military UNA-UNSO members have been behind every revolt against Russian influence. The one connecting thread in their violent campaigns is always anti-Russia. The organization, according to veteran US intelligence sources, is part of a secret NATO “GLADIO” organization, and not a Ukraine nationalist group as portrayed in western media. [6]

According to these sources, UNA-UNSO have been involved (confirmed officially) in the Lithuanian events in the Winter of 1991, the Soviet Coup d’etat in Summer 1991, the war for the Pridnister Republic 1992, the anti-Moscow Abkhazia War 1993, the Chechen War, the US-organized Kosovo Campaign Against the Serbs, and the August 8 2008 war in Georgia. According to these reports, UNA-UNSO para-military have been involved in every NATO dirty war in the post-cold war period, always fighting on behalf of NATO. “These people are the dangerous mercenaries used all over the world to fight NATO’s dirty war, and to frame Russia because this group pretends to be Russian special forces. THESE ARE THE BAD GUYS, forget about the window dressing nationalists, these are the men behind the sniper rifles,” these sources insist. [7]

If true that UNA-UNSO is not “Ukrainian” opposition, but rather a highly secret NATO force using Ukraine as base, it would suggest that the EU peace compromise with the moderates was likely sabotaged by the one major player excluded from the Kiev 21 February diplomatic talks—Victoria Nuland’s State Department.[8] Both Nuland and right-wing Republican US Senator John McCain have had contact with the leader of the Ukrainian opposition Svoboda Party, whose leader is openly anti-semitic and defends the deeds of a World War II Ukrainian SS-Galicia Division head.[9] The party was registered in 1995, initially calling itself the “Social National Party of Ukraine” and using a swastika style logo. Svoboda is the electoral front for neo-nazi organizations in Ukraine such as UNA-UNSO.[10]

One further indication that Nuland’s hand is shaping latest Ukraine events is the fact that the new Ukrainian Parliament is expected to nominate Nuland’s choice, Arseny Yatsenyuk, from Tymoshenko’s party, to be interim head of the new Cabinet.

Whatever the final truth, clear is that Washington has prepared a new economic rape of Ukraine using its control over the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF plunder of Ukraine Crown Jewels

Now that the “opposition” has driven a duly-elected president into exile somewhere unknown, and dissolved the national riot police, Berkut, Washington has demanded that Ukraine submit to onerous IMF conditionalities.

In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

Before the ouster of the Moscow-leaning Yanukovich government last week, Moscow was prepared to buy some $15 billion of Ukraine debt and to slash its gas prices by fully one-third. Now, understandably, Russia is unlikely to give that support. The economic cooperation between Ukraine and Moscow was something Washington was determined to sabotage at all costs.

This drama is far from over. The stakes involve the very future of Russia, the EU-Russian relations, and the global power of Washington, or at least that faction in Washington that sees further wars as the prime instrument of policy.
"It is difficult to write a paradiso when all the superficial indications are that you ought to write an apocalypse." -Ezra Pound

Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2014, 06:21:13 PM »
From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)




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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2014, 07:13:02 PM »
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

If the Ukraine wants something close to prosperity, this is a sideshow.  The first thing they have to do is destroy their own oligarchs: take away their money and power.

But remember how the West squealed when Putin brought his oligarchs to heel?  Or at Venezuelan redistribution?  Oligarchs are even more sacrosanct in the West than the East.  The IMF would never allow the Ukraine to destroy their oligarchs and throw them all in jail.

The next step after that would be solidly reorient to China.  They want Ukraine’s food, and  the Chinese are willing to pay a premium for the resources they buy, at least by developing world standards (and that this point, that’s what Ukraine is.)  What, exactly the Ukraine thinks it will sell the West is beyond me: their Soviet era factories don’t make anything we want, and the West heavily subsidizes its own agricultural production.

***

The Rape of Ukraine: Phase Two Begins

By F. William Engdahl

February 28, 2014 "Information Clearing House - "21st Century Wire" - The events in Ukraine since November 2013 are so astonishing as almost to defy belief.

An legitimately-elected (said by all international monitors) Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, has been driven from office, forced to flee as a war criminal after more than three months of violent protest and terrorist killings by so-called opposition.

His “crime” according to protest leaders was that he rejected an EU offer of a vaguely-defined associate EU membership that offered little to Ukraine in favor of a concrete deal with Russia that gave immediate €15 billion debt relief and a huge reduction in Russian gas import prices. Washington at that point went into high gear and the result today is catastrophe.

A secretive neo-nazi military organization reported linked to NATO played a decisive role in targeted sniper attacks and violence that led to the collapse of the elected government.

But the West is not finished with destroying Ukraine. Now comes the IMF with severe conditionalities as prerequisite to any Western financial help.

After the famous leaked phone call of US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (photo, left) with the US Ambassador in Kiev, where she discussed the details of who she wanted in a new coalition government in Kiev, and where she rejected the EU solutions with her “Fuck the EU” comment,[1] the EU went it alone. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed that he and his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, fly to Kiev and try to reach a resolution of the violence before escalation. Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski was asked to join. The talks in Kiev included the EU delegation, Yanukovich, the three opposition leaders and a Russian representative. The USA was not invited.[2]

The EU intervention without Washington was extraordinary and reveals the deeping division between the two in recent months. In effect it was the EU saying to the US State Department, “F*** the US,” we will end this ourselves.

After hard talks, all major parties including the majority of protesters, agreed to new presidential elections in December, return to the 2004 Constitution and release of Julia Tymoshenko from prison. The compromise appeared to end the months long chaos and give a way out for all major players.

The diplomatic compromise lasted less than twelve hours. Then all hell broke loose.

Snipers began shooting into the crowd on February 22 in Maidan or Independence Square. Panic ensued and riot police retreated in panic according to eyewitnesses. The opposition leader Vitali Klitschko withdrew from the deal, no reason given. Yanukovich fled Kiev.[3]

The question unanswered until now is who deployed the snipers? According to veteran US intelligence sources, the snipers came from an ultra-right-wing military organization known as Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People’s Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO).

The leader of UNA-UNSO, Andriy Shkil, ten years ago became an adviser to Julia Tymoshenko. UNA-UNSO, during the US-instigated 2003-2004 “Orange Revolution”, backed pro-NATO candidate Viktor Yushchenko against his pro-Russian opponent, Yanukovich. UNA-UNSO members provided security for the supporters of Yushchenko and Julia Tymoshenko on Independence Square in Kiev in 2003-4.[4]

UNA-UNSO is also reported to have close ties to the German National Democratic Party (NDP). [5]

Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 the crack-para-military UNA-UNSO members have been behind every revolt against Russian influence. The one connecting thread in their violent campaigns is always anti-Russia. The organization, according to veteran US intelligence sources, is part of a secret NATO “GLADIO” organization, and not a Ukraine nationalist group as portrayed in western media. [6]

According to these sources, UNA-UNSO have been involved (confirmed officially) in the Lithuanian events in the Winter of 1991, the Soviet Coup d’etat in Summer 1991, the war for the Pridnister Republic 1992, the anti-Moscow Abkhazia War 1993, the Chechen War, the US-organized Kosovo Campaign Against the Serbs, and the August 8 2008 war in Georgia. According to these reports, UNA-UNSO para-military have been involved in every NATO dirty war in the post-cold war period, always fighting on behalf of NATO. “These people are the dangerous mercenaries used all over the world to fight NATO’s dirty war, and to frame Russia because this group pretends to be Russian special forces. THESE ARE THE BAD GUYS, forget about the window dressing nationalists, these are the men behind the sniper rifles,” these sources insist. [7]

If true that UNA-UNSO is not “Ukrainian” opposition, but rather a highly secret NATO force using Ukraine as base, it would suggest that the EU peace compromise with the moderates was likely sabotaged by the one major player excluded from the Kiev 21 February diplomatic talks—Victoria Nuland’s State Department.[8] Both Nuland and right-wing Republican US Senator John McCain have had contact with the leader of the Ukrainian opposition Svoboda Party, whose leader is openly anti-semitic and defends the deeds of a World War II Ukrainian SS-Galicia Division head.[9] The party was registered in 1995, initially calling itself the “Social National Party of Ukraine” and using a swastika style logo. Svoboda is the electoral front for neo-nazi organizations in Ukraine such as UNA-UNSO.[10]

One further indication that Nuland’s hand is shaping latest Ukraine events is the fact that the new Ukrainian Parliament is expected to nominate Nuland’s choice, Arseny Yatsenyuk, from Tymoshenko’s party, to be interim head of the new Cabinet.

Whatever the final truth, clear is that Washington has prepared a new economic rape of Ukraine using its control over the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF plunder of Ukraine Crown Jewels

Now that the “opposition” has driven a duly-elected president into exile somewhere unknown, and dissolved the national riot police, Berkut, Washington has demanded that Ukraine submit to onerous IMF conditionalities.

In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

Before the ouster of the Moscow-leaning Yanukovich government last week, Moscow was prepared to buy some $15 billion of Ukraine debt and to slash its gas prices by fully one-third. Now, understandably, Russia is unlikely to give that support. The economic cooperation between Ukraine and Moscow was something Washington was determined to sabotage at all costs.

This drama is far from over. The stakes involve the very future of Russia, the EU-Russian relations, and the global power of Washington, or at least that faction in Washington that sees further wars as the prime instrument of policy.

I suppose that all fits with radio interviews I was listening to about 3 weeks ago with ukranians. THey were saying while the protestors were united, the riot cops were deeply divided, many sympathetic to the rioters. Those sympathetic were considered a disgrace to the uniform and dropped in the forest freezing cold without the uniform, rioters cottoned on and waited with warm clothes. Then OTOH the zealots were identifying protestors and arresting their families for nothing.
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Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2014, 08:25:00 PM »
Quote
In negotiations last October, the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.” In return Ukraine would get a paltry $4 billion.

I believe Monsta666 said, this is what Morsi in Egypt did, agree to sell-out Egypt to the IMF, which is really what got him thrown out of power. Washington and the IMF destroy everything they touch, in the name of democracy (but really in service to Imperial greed.) If there is any justice, TPTB in America, the IMF, World Bank, Intl Bank of Settlements, will all go on trial for crimes against humanity (and the earth).   

Neo-Nazi's in Ukraine. Al Qaida in Libya and Syria. There is no evil too low, that American Foreign Policy won't associate with, in the name of Full Spectrum Domination. Sick.  :P

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Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS/IMF version
« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2014, 08:56:32 PM »
The 2012 IMF/Ukraine Negotiations
2014 MARCH 2
by Ian Welsh
These are the reforms the IMF wanted for a 4 billion dollar loan:

the IMF demanded that Ukraine double prices for gas and electricity to industry and homes, that they lift a ban on private sale of Ukraine’s rich agriculture lands, make a major overhaul of their economic holdings, devalue the currency, slash state funds for school children and the elderly to “balance the budget.”

This is what the IMF does to your country. Note that 4 billion doesn’t even come close to covering Ukraine’s debts.  Moscow offered 15 billion and a one-third reduction in natural gas prices.

Highlight mine.

This is the operative problem as far as Ukraine Pols are concerned.

The only reason the IMF offers even this much is just to keep the banking system from imploding, not to help the Ukrainians.  The Ukrainians never even see this money, it passes straight through to the Secured Bondholders to pay up on outstanding debt.

What Ukrainian Pols WANT regardless of which side they are on is a big enough package where they can skim off money and deposit it to Cayman Island bank accounts.  They have to have control over the disbursement of the money too, and the IMF doesn't want to give them that.

$4B is Chump Change, even for Ukraine issues.  They need more like $35-50B, and not as more Loans they can't service, but as a GIFT!  LOL.

Putin won't GIVE them money either, he doesn't have it to give.  $15B from him is more like Energy Credits, he'll feed Gazprom fuel to them as a Credit, not hard currency.  So while this keeps the lights on in Ukraine and keeps the hovels warm the rest of the winter, it doesn't pay anybody's Pension or give them enough Scratch to buy food with either.  On the Ruskie Books, this further indebts Ukraine to Russia, making them Debt Slaves.

Basically ALL countries these days are run by a corrupt Political Class used to being able to skim a healthy portion of Debt money off into their own bank accounts, but the credit has dried up to a Trickle now, so there is nothing left to skim.  The IMF is just trying to keep the system from imploding.

Far as CHS theories on a Global Shadow Goobermint, that definitely exists here.  It's the folks who are really in charge of Credit Creation in the City of London and on Wall Street.  Theirs is still the only (semi)functional Global system,so they call the shots on who gets issued more credit and who gets triaged off of it.

If the Chinese and Ruskies and Brazilians and Indians could jump start their own Credit Creation system, they sure would but they can't do that.  None of these countries has the Banking Infrastructure to do it.  Their banks, such as they exist are just corrupt subsidiaries of the Anglo-American system.  They didn;t get in early enough on the Ponzi, which took centuries to set up.  They don't have credibility, and there isn't even the Veneer of a Legal System to protect "Investors".

Bottom line though is that even being in charge of Credit Creation doesn't put more resources in the ground to buy with that credit.  It does prevent the credit creators though from falling off the cliff first.  It's basically the same as you being the last Unemployed Person in your Subdivision left with a Credit Card that works.  You are the last person left who can still go to the Mall and charge up some Oil there.  The problem for the Mall Operator is that just you showing up at the Mall to buy some Oil does not pay HIS fixed costs of operation, including all the debt he has to service.  So he then tries to sell off his assets to another greater fool, but there aren't greater fools with enough scratch to buy those assets, putting them in a Liquidity Trap/Asset Class Sinkhole.  Sears and JC Penny are the commercial versions of this, they have a HUGE amount of Real Estate they "own" in Malls everywhere, but they can't unload the space to anyone else.  WTF wants to buy 1M sq ft in a Mall with close to ZERO foot traffic?  WTF wants to buy an Oil Field with $115/barrel production costs when no car traffic can afford to buy at that price?  Everybody who holds these White Elephants would like to get rid of them, but finding Bigger Fools gets harder all the time here.

So eventually here, the Credit Creators are the Bag Holders on a lot of Worthless Assets, Malls with no Foot Traffic, Convenience Store Gas Stations with no Car Traffic and McMansions nobody can pay the Mortgage on.  AKA, all the Malinvestment made in the Age of Oil.

Putin by rolling over Ukraine demonstrates that he doesn't understand the dynamics going on here any better than Obama-sama does.  Military force can't put more resources in the ground any more than Credit Creation can.  He is just burning up Capital faster by trying to hold onto the model also.

Inexorably, we creep closer each day to a lockup on both the credit end and the political/military end.  It still will take a while, as more weaker countries and currencies will be triaged off before a final Collapse of the system, but the writing is on the wall here already.

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Offline WHD

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2014, 09:19:41 PM »
Quote
the ability to export to keep the lights on in Europe will by definition mean much higher costs for American consumers...and businesses.

From Mr Critical Thinker, who says, thanks to fracking, we are all going to drive electrical vehicles in a generation, for many generations ongoing. (Oops, I guess we are going to export all that surplus.)

WHD

A) It is what I get paid to do...
B) fracking has completely left egg on the face of those who claimed "natural gas cliff in America", i.e. peaker types,
C) B) doesn't have much to do with driving EVs in a generation...we can, and do, drive them now...
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.

And if you apply A) to what might you invest in, considering how well global warming has affected the America NE this year...i.e. frozen wasteland......gas storage fields. Just a hint.

See folks. It doesn't matter how much we export. There will always be enough, to fulfil the future you want. Because MKing gets paid to say so.

(Just don't think about all that poisoning of all that earth, air, water  ;) )

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Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2014, 09:20:09 PM »
A) It is what I get paid to do...

That says it all in a Nutshell.

Quote from: Upton Sinclair
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

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Offline jdwheeler42

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2014, 09:21:51 PM »
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.
Yep, and when ecoterrorists figure that out, and realize that LNG tankers carry the energetic equivalent of a tactical nuke, well, you can do the math....
Making pigs fly is easy... that is, of course, after you have built the catapult....

Offline RE

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2014, 09:42:38 PM »
D) exports will cause even MORE fracking when it drives up price...assuming electrical generation doesn't soak up the surplus first.
Yep, and when ecoterrorists figure that out, and realize that LNG tankers carry the energetic equivalent of a tactical nuke, well, you can do the math....

Are those ECOlogical terrorist or ECOnomic terrorists?

Forget the Tree Hugger terrorist from Greenpeace here, you got a much bigger problem with folks like the Somali Pirates, and Nation-States with some cheap shoulder fired Cruise Missiles.  LNG Tankers have to Load and Unload at very specialized ports, and they are Sitting Ducks at both ends.  If Putin wants to prevent Amerikan LNG tankers from offloading to the Eurotrash, he just funds and provides some cheap missiles to a Local Cell of Unhappy folks in Rotterdam to take out an LNG tanker unloading.

Once the economic system breaks down here for distribution, there are a bazillion people with NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE who will disrupt what is left of the physical infrastructure.  LNG tankers offloading from Amerika does NOTHING to help them, the energy comes at a price they cannot afford to pay anyhow.

The infrastructure doesn't exist to move that much LNG via tankers anyhow, and building more of them when they all will inevitably end up as scrap metal at the bottom of Davey Jones locker is still MORE malinvestment.

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« Last Edit: March 02, 2014, 09:46:15 PM by RE »
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: ...and so it BEGINS
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2014, 10:49:58 PM »
Is it watertight unasailable reasoning saying what theyre paid to do gives them the greatest qualification to talk on topic while at once saying its a secret what they are paid to do?  And a scientific critique of the unqualified writers work is just that they didnt go to the same conferences or to Harvard?


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