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Offline RE

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #105 on: October 21, 2012, 08:33:27 AM »
Articles about going back on the Gold Standard are, in truth,  articles asking if it is time to admit that we were collectively all ass holes who have been conned and it is now time to accept the obvious, or continue to be buffoons in a fantasy world of make believe money. 

The world of "Make Believe Money" is the one that has existed since people first started counting numbers.  It is the "System of the World" in Neal Stephenson's phraseology.  It assigns Numerical Values to ALL things, Gold included.  Thing is, relative values change, and change radically when you have resource scarcity.  We haven't had such a period of resource scarcity in a very long time, really on an aggregate level not since the beginnings of Ag.  Now we got one again.  Just remember the words written in the BIBLE, the REVEALED WORD OF GOD:

Quote from: Revelation 18
11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
 
12 The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,
 
13 And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.

Even if you don't subscribe to the belief that this describes what really went down in Babylon as I do and merely is a prediction of a Future Event, it still does describe a time when Gold goes WORTHLESS, right along with the Souls of Men.  Do you DENY the Word of God written in the Holy Bible?  Will you DENY GOD to worship the Golden Calf?

RE

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Offline JoeP

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #106 on: October 21, 2012, 09:14:35 AM »
Just remember the words written in the BIBLE, the REVEALED WORD OF GOD:

 RE quoting The Holy Bible...Shit's getting real fo shizzle.   :laugh:
just my straight shooting honest opinion

Offline g

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #107 on: October 21, 2012, 09:21:50 AM »
Articles about going back on the Gold Standard are, in truth,  articles asking if it is time to admit that we were collectively all ass holes who have been conned and it is now time to accept the obvious, or continue to be buffoons in a fantasy world of make believe money. 

The world of "Make Believe Money" is the one that has existed since people first started counting numbers.  It is the "System of the World" in Neal Stephenson's phraseology.  It assigns Numerical Values to ALL things, Gold included.  Thing is, relative values change, and change radically when you have resource scarcity.  We haven't had such a period of resource scarcity in a very long time, really on an aggregate level not since the beginnings of Ag.  Now we got one again.  Just remember the words written in the BIBLE, the REVEALED WORD OF GOD:

Quote from: Revelation 18
11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
 
12 The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,
 
13 And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.

Even if you don't subscribe to the belief that this describes what really went down in Babylon as I do and merely is a prediction of a Future Event, it still does describe a time when Gold goes WORTHLESS, right along with the Souls of Men.  Do you DENY the Word of God written in the Holy Bible?  Will you DENY GOD to worship the Golden Calf?

RE

Your attempt at mimicking Ashvin is as ludicrous as your recent reincarnation of Pol Pot as a possible saint, or the discovering of America actually being the start of the first biological war; that was a real doozey and was all that was required for me to realize you also were a possessor of the Looney Tune gene

My argument is about Gold, the money of history, compared to bankster devised and created fiat in all it's evil forms; nothing more, nothing less. Stay on topic and stop the muddying of the waters.

I do not worship the golden calf and I am cognizant of the fact there will come a time when nothing will have any value; until then I will continue to argue for sound honest money requiring labor to produce, rather than bankster created toilet paper and its evil credit derivatives.

It is a beautiful Indian Summer day in Boston and I am going out with a good friend of mine this afternoon to enjoy the final beauty of Fall and all it's splendor. I guess one my call it a "Thoreau Moment." Packed up some Lobster rolls a few bottles of St Julien and a pint of single malt scotch in case it gets a bit nippy.  Wish Karpatok was around, would like to have invited her for a ride in my new buggy.    Chow

GO & Oddjob
GO & Oddjob

 

Offline RE

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #108 on: October 21, 2012, 09:45:11 AM »
Your attempt at mimicking Ashvin is as ludicrous as your recent reincarnation of Pol Pot as a possible saint, or the discovering of America actually being the start of the first biological war; that was a real doozey and was all that was required for me to realize you also were a possessor of the Looney Tune gene.

Personally, I though I did a real good Watson Impersonation there.  :icon_mrgreen:

Far as Reinventing Pol Pot, I didn't do that, Israel Shamir did it.

Far as the Dead Injuns go, do you DENY they died of the Smallpox delivered unto them by the Eurotrash?

RE
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Offline monsta666

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #109 on: October 21, 2012, 01:33:13 PM »
Fiat currencies certainly have their weaknesses as it encourages governments and central banks to issue excess amounts of money/credit .This overleveraging can lead to catastrophic results to the national currency if no measures are taken to limit this over expenditure. In fact there have been many cases of fiat currencies reaching an end-point of hyperinflation. However just because fiat does encourage overleveraging it does not mean a gold standard currency is immune to this final fate either.

There have been cases of currency devaluation even when following the gold standard and it should be noted that the US suffered numerous financial crises in the 19th century when it did follow the gold standard. I have heard that the term depression was a politically correct way of expressing financial panic where there were numerous crises most notably the 1873-1879 long depression. Indeed this depression was known as the great depression until this event was supplanted by the great depression of the 1930s. All of which occurred during an era when all the major currencies of the world followed the gold standard.

The causes of this long depression are, like the great depression of the 1930s, still debated among economists but the general problems would appear to share striking similarities. Like the 1930s depression the long depression came at a time shortly after a major war. In the case of the long depression this was the American civil war while the great depression was preceded by World War 1. Such wars meant that the central governments issued an excessive amount of credit to fund the war effort and this excessive spending came despite the fact the gold standard places heavy penalties on countries that do not practice fiscal restraint. This scenario of excessive credit creation coming through war times should be noted for it is one of the few instances where governments are prepared to risk mortally damaging their currency. This behaviour of excessive spending under this circumstance can apply to whatever monetary system is applied be it gold or fiat based currency system.

To say the long-depression was caused by excessive war spending would not tell the whole story, not to mention it would neglect to raise another commonality between the two eras. That is, the immediate period after the civil war was a boom period for the US economy (which is similar to the roaring 1920s). This boom occurred because the 1860s was a period where the government and major private companies invested heavily in rail-roads. Much of those railroads were financed by loans, bonds and subsidies which in many cases where backed by the US government. These cheap loans created overinvestment in the industry and eventually lead to a bubble forming (or overcapacity). As it became clear many of these rail companies could never pay back their loans this caused many banks to fail which eventually culminated with the failure of the major banks of Jay Cooke and Henry Clews which brought the financial sector to its knees. The resulting recession would last 6 years and growth was below normal until after the 1890s. Again this period of recession and sluggish growth shares a similar similarity to the great depression.

So why bring up the point of the long depression and great depression? I think the point to take from all these events is that despite being on the gold standard (in the case of the 1870s the gold and silver standard) governments and corporations found ways of overleveraging the monetary system. When those loans could not be paid back it resulted in large scale defaults which almost caused the destruction of the financial system. Now it can be argued that since a fiat currency encourages more spending (as currency is no longer bound by reserves of gold) then the magnitude of the problem will be that much greater so the level of defaults required to bring the system into balance would be greater but then the argument becomes one of a matter of degree.

Offline pansceptic

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #110 on: October 21, 2012, 01:57:33 PM »
Mr Oxen is correct that at some point, for a while, gold may be almost worthless - during a period when everyone is residing at the dead bottom of Maslow's Pyramid.  However, as soon as a warlord or feudal baron or whoever arises, gold will be desired again.  As long as men want signifiers of status and gifts to cement alliances or seduce women, men will want gold.

I often ask a riddle of people at work or met at social events:  Suppose I get in my Time Machine and travel to Ancient Egypt.  I don't want to stand out so much, so I will want to buy some local clothes.  And maybe get some lunch before I head back to the Time Machine.  What should I bring to buy some clothes and lunch?  Or if I stop in Ancient Rome?  Or Shakespeare's London?  Or Inca Peru?  The smart ones figure it out pretty quickly.

Why has humanity settled on gold as a store of value across the centuries and across cultures that were not even aware of one another? 
The rational reasons:
1) Uniform character.  Unlike the bible's "fine linen...and silk...and precious wood" gold is gold, the world over.
2) Pretty much infinitely divisible without destroying its uniform character.
3) Essentially indestructable.  You can bury it without it rusting or corroding.  If your house burns down, you will find your gold pretty much where you left it, as a shiny puddle instead of a shiny coin.
4) Aboveground stock of gold is much larger than annual production; this means that there are no sudden changes in value due to new supplies appearing.
5) Not voluminous, and so easy to transport a significant amount of value.

The cultural reason:
GO mentioned this: "good as gold", "golden opportunity", etc.

The emotional reasons:
1) A gold coin, due to its high density, just feels like something of substance.  Usually when I put a gold coin in a persn's hand, the first thing they comment on is not that it is artistic or shiny, but that it seems heavy for its size.
2) It seems uncorruptable: it doesn't discolor or corrode when worn on salty skin; people call gold a "noble metal".

I'm a pragmatic boy; I think it would be foolish to ignore thousands of years of cross-cultural desire for gold as portable value.

Offline pansceptic

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #111 on: October 21, 2012, 02:14:19 PM »
monsta666, you are right that "gold's honest discipline" alone will not stop boom-and-bust cycles.  The other half of the reform would be the elimination of Fractional Reserve Banking.  FRB permits the growth of credit to far outstrip the growth of genuine production, as well as encouraging malinvestment.

Your analysis of cause of the First Great Depression (1870s) is correct; malinvestment in overcapacity, in that case railroads.  The second Great Depression was similarly caused by overcapacity, in that New Hi-Tech Radio Broadcast System and the Automobile Assembly Line.  The second Great Depression was resolved largely by using that overcapacity to build stuff that would simply get blown up, requiring the production of more stuff.

Some people on this blog and others have suggested that this solution will be applied to the current global productive overcapacity and population overshoot.  Resource Wars would indeed "solve" several problems simultaneously, while provding some juicy "investment" reward opportunities for cronies.

Offline monsta666

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #112 on: October 21, 2012, 02:25:46 PM »
Last post contained 666 words :)

To continue with part 2:

The main issue I see with the gold standard - despite assertions to the contrary - is it is not immune to reckless spending. Reckless spending can come through poor lending practices and these practices have a particular tendency of loosening during WAR TIMES and BOOM TIMES. In the case of war the risk of financial collapse is acceptable to fight the war while in the case of boom times the perception of risk becomes distorted so market participants take out excessive loans thinking the risk of failure is lower than reality. This human behaviour must be accounted for when suggestions of moving to a gold standard system are ushered.

If one wants to assure there is no risk of financial mismanagement then one needs to get at the root of the problem and that is one of leverage. Every major currency in existence today follows a debt based fiat currency system with many of the commercial banks operating with a fractional reserve system. This system of fractional reserve banking is not well understood by most members of the public but most of the loans/money generated through the system comes about through here. This point is important as it is the leveraging that ultimately causes the instability in the monetary system NOT whether the currency is backed by gold or promises (as is the case in fiat).

To gain a good idea how a fractional reserve works it is best to find out how the system started in the first place. That way we can learn it simply and not be baffled and confused with all the mumbo jumbo that some smarty pants will put in front of us to confuse us. All these terms and convoluted descriptions are just smoke and mirrors to make the public feel intimidated and not ask further questions about the fraud being committed right in front of their eyes. Notice how no one actually teaches how monetary systems actually operate in school? Anyways, I digress and let us focus on the topic at hand.
The fractional reserve system originally came about when early bankers would help store pieces of gold bullion for various customers. To make transfers more convenient the early banks would issue notes which allowed the customer to redeem their gold. This meant people did not have to travel back and forth with gold bars which were a major drag (literally) not to mention quite dangerous. After sometime however the banks realised that customers would only trade these notes instead of exchanging gold directly. In fact those notes became a form of ad-hoc currency and it became apparent that the more notes that were issued the more money would be generated which meant more profit to the banks. So the banks began the path to the dark side by issuing more notes than they had gold. It was the beginning of the fractional reserve banking.

The banks had already found that since most people did not take out from their deposits creating excessive notes posed no real risk of them being found out or going bankrupt. However this practice did lead to the issuing of more money which while fraudulent benefited the upper class very well as it allowed them greater means to spend and invest money in various major projects. These extra loans also had the effect of extracting more wealth from its subjects via interest payments from the extra loans generated from this operation. As a result even though this form of fraud became known to the government it was not outlawed. Instead laws were made to limit the amount of risk such practices posed to the overall system. From this point onward the financial system developed extra complexity as the article RE posted earlier clear demonstrates but on a fundamental level they all operate on a similar concept. To many this is really a legalised system of fraud and one wonders how the general population would behave if it learnt the truth about how money works.

In any case if one wishes for stability one needs to confront the fractional reserve system. If a person does wish for stability then the reserves must equal 100% of the currency available. Any leverage will create some instability and the more leveraged it becomes the greater the resulting instability. It should be noted however this system - despite its obvious flaws and shortcomings - has one big advantage. This way of generating excess cash has a great effect in delivering growth for the general economy which was a great BOON to an ever expanding industrial economy. In fact if one looks at the term capitalism the main objective of this system is to acquire capital. This can be through actual assets and cash and since fractional reserve banking delivers on this objective one can see why it is so prevalent in modern societies. However as noted by many others this growth cannot go on indefinitely and in a contracting economy excessive credit creation can quickly become a bane to society. In fact one can easily say a fractional reserve system would not be fit for purpose for an economy that is continually contracting. In fact it would be catastrophic.

Still, one should not forget to remove this system if one wants future stability. What needs to be understood however is if one wishes for complete stability with full fractional reserve banking then one must sacrifice growth. Now, with this in mind it can naturally lead to another question: can man curb his desires of greed and power to prevent such a system forming on a future date?

Offline monsta666

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #113 on: October 21, 2012, 04:08:24 PM »
Mr Oxen is correct that at some point, for a while, gold may be almost worthless - during a period when everyone is residing at the dead bottom of Maslow's Pyramid.  However, as soon as a warlord or feudal baron or whoever arises, gold will be desired again.  As long as men want signifiers of status and gifts to cement alliances or seduce women, men will want gold.

I think the question that does need to be asked is how long will you need before some warlord takes control and gold regains its value? Will this period be 5 years, 10 years or even a few decades? In the meantime how secure will all that gold be in chaotic times when it is likely you will need to move on a fairly regular basis? Walking with gold bars on the street is dangerous at the best of times just imagine how dangerous it would be with hoards of zombies walking around. The same can be said if you store the gold in your doomstead of even if you have it hidden away.

These long lead times plus the danger of confiscation either by governments, mobs or warlords means that while gold or other precious metals may indeed come handy they cannot be seen as ultimate solutions and any advantage conferred by them could be easily squandered or taken away. The other argument often made is that skills, if useful enough, will be worth their weight in gold and unlike gold skills cannot be so easily stolen.

Some people on this blog and others have suggested that this solution will be applied to the current global productive overcapacity and population overshoot.  Resource Wars would indeed "solve" several problems simultaneously, while providing some juicy "investment" reward opportunities for cronies.

I do agree that some overcapacity issues can be "solved" through using infrastructure for war development and having the subsequent infrastructure blown to pieces. These solutions will not get at the heart of the problem however and that is the reserve system. Until that system is removed overspending in some shape or form will occur in perpetually.

Offline RE

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #114 on: October 21, 2012, 05:04:05 PM »
Actually, it was my suggestion via Revelation 18 that Gold will go essentially worthless at some point, not GO's. GO would NEVER suggest such a thing. SACRILEDGE!  LOL.

Fractional Banking and Leverage are systemic and necessary parts of the Industrial paradigm.  As Steve from Virginia often hammers down on, Industry never pays for itself, it is always financed on debt.  Through the shield of the corporation, Illuminati borrow their way into huge fortunes, sieving off personal wealth and then leaving behind the bad debts for the Public to pay off on.  Somehow, since the Railroads started going Bust in the 1800s though to the Car companies going bust and the Airlines going bust regularly, J6P doesn't get how this works and how the Illuminati got rich to begin with and stay rich, despite the fact all the Industries they create go BK.

Anyhow, for all the $Trillions$ that Helicopter Ben has thusfar created, its a drop in the bucket compared to the $Quadrillion$ or more created by Private Banksters as a means to finance up the creation of the "modern" world, for so long as there was enough REAL capital to run it, that being Oil of course. You can't Print Oil, so just about all the Collateral banks use to back the Money they create is going worthless and the House of Cards is a-tumbling down.

RE
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Offline Petty Tyrant

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #115 on: October 21, 2012, 05:43:18 PM »
RE
You missed the Bible verse "In one hour your gold has all rusted and moths eaten your money" , stock market crash? long past? Future? tripping out author?

GO I had wondered if the Golden Oxen logo was meant to signify the Golden Calf on steroids or Gold in a Bull Market or both? worthless eventually, well, take the seige of Sarajevo, money was literally good for toilet paper only, essentials such as toilet paper were what people wanted. But as pansceptic pointed out that changes sooner or later.
Poll Pot; Different to Sarajevo altogether. Asians in those times in those places got out litle scales and bought/sold with gold. Where did the poor people get it? They always keep it if they can. When gaudy immigrant asian and indian women from peasant villages immigrate and spend their min wage pay at zamels and Shiels they dont think its just fashion they also think its savings, its in their blood.

Monsta
Its chicken and egg conundrum of war and depression. American Civil war 1860's followed by 1890 crash, Boer war in 1900, 1930's depression in between the war to end all wars and the next one when hitler didnt get the memo.

This one, well where do you start, Im not up to writing as much as you have  and everyone already knows all the same as i woiuld have to say so i will leave it.

On fractional Reserve, RUDE surprise it was for UB when he learned the bank  never had the money it charges him usurious interest to borrow. Well Hell, why cant I just make it up and lend it to myself!?
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Offline g

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #116 on: October 22, 2012, 04:10:47 AM »
Quote pansceptic  "I'm a pragmatic boy; I think it would be foolish to ignore thousands of years of cross-cultural desire for gold as portable value."

Bulls Eye Sir, It is all about History and the people who refuse to learn from it, isn't it?

My experience from arguing the pro Gold view few for decades is that it's detractors view history as starting on the day of THEIR birth and ENDING on or about the time of their demise. The folks with my view go back a few thousand years before the birth of Christ when they view history and think it will continue long after they are gone.

RE is a perfect example of this phenomenen, a gold detractor who often refers to it as tungsten to vent his dislike of the noble metal.  His view is that the greatest and only view of history worth living through was the time of his birth until the day of his demise, the great age of cheap oil as he calls it. He also expects human civilization to end right around the time of his demise.

Like you pansceptic I prefer the latter view of history, the thousands of years perspective.

Ancient Gold coin used in Pompeii
Ancient Gold coin used in Pompeii
.

Constans II 002
Constans II 002

 

Offline RE

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #117 on: October 22, 2012, 02:08:01 PM »
Nonsense, Strawmen and Lies off your keyboard GO


RE is a perfect example of this phenomenen, a gold detractor who often refers to it as tungsten to vent his dislike of the noble metal.  His view is that the greatest and only view of history worth living through was the time of his birth until the day of his demise, the great age of cheap oil as he calls it. He also expects human civilization to end right around the time of his demise.

First off, I write more history on these pages than anyone here.  I refer you to my Great Library Article, Large Public Works Articles, Articles about Da Fed, Railroads...shall I go on?  To be able to write about it, I had to first read about it so clearly I know more about what happenned before I was born than you know about it, since you don't seem to be able to write anything but the same old tired cliches and coda with pics of Gold Coins.

I ALSO don't expect history to end when I die, I just expect it is coming about the same time the Oil Age comes to a close.  I just happenned to be born around the right time for that to occur.  Might not hit it square on, but pretty close.

Finally, I have NEVER referred to Gold as Tungsten, I merely point out that because it has the same density, if a gold bar or coin is cored with tungsten you can't tell unless you drill it.  Probably 20% of your coin collection are Tungsten Cored Counterfeits.

Anyhow, I don't mind debating Gold issues with you, and in fact Monsta has a Feature Article in the pipeline here on the topic.  I will add more to it after publication.  Meanwhile, try not to LIE and misrepresent what I write in your rebuttals.  Thanks.

RE
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Offline g

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #118 on: October 22, 2012, 02:54:06 PM »


Quote
Finally, I have NEVER referred to Gold as Tungsten, I merely point out that because it has the same density, if a gold bar or coin is cored with tungsten you can't tell unless you drill it.  Probably 20% of your coin collection are Tungsten Cored Counterfeits.

Anyhow, I don't mind debating Gold issues with you, and in fact Monsta has a Feature Article in the pipeline here on the topic.  I will add more to it after publication.  Meanwhile, try not to LIE and misrepresent what I write in your rebuttals.  Thanks.

RE
[/quote]


1
Market Flambe / Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins: Restore Gold Standard For Price Stability and Jobs
by RE on June 02, 2012, 02:09:29 PM

......  the Saudis we would have emptied Fort Knox of Tungsten probably by 1980. Our economy would have crashed  ......
2
Market Flambe / Re: Make a list, check it twice. Introducing My Twin Brother to the Diner
by Golden Oxen on May 22, 2012, 10:01:05 AM

......  of course that he would have just been Nuking Tungsten. Third, Goldfinger had a Japanese Butler who  ......

                             
7

Offline RE

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Re: Gold & Silver News
« Reply #119 on: October 22, 2012, 03:14:34 PM »


Quote
Finally, I have NEVER referred to Gold as Tungsten, I merely point out that because it has the same density, if a gold bar or coin is cored with tungsten you can't tell unless you drill it.  Probably 20% of your coin collection are Tungsten Cored Counterfeits.

Anyhow, I don't mind debating Gold issues with you, and in fact Monsta has a Feature Article in the pipeline here on the topic.  I will add more to it after publication.  Meanwhile, try not to LIE and misrepresent what I write in your rebuttals.  Thanks.

1
Market Flambe / Re: Big Slide v2.0 Begins: Restore Gold Standard For Price Stability and Jobs
by RE on June 02, 2012, 02:09:29 PM

......  the Saudis we would have emptied Fort Knox of Tungsten probably by 1980. Our economy would have crashed  ......
2
Market Flambe / Re: Make a list, check it twice. Introducing My Twin Brother to the Diner
by Golden Oxen on May 22, 2012, 10:01:05 AM

......  of course that he would have just been Nuking Tungsten. Third, Goldfinger had a Japanese Butler who  ......                 

Everybody knows the Gold in Fort Knox was replaced by Tungsten when Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971.  Even Tyler Durden says so. :P

RE
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