AuthorTopic: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?  (Read 4730 times)

Offline JRM

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Excerpt:

"By labeling all this devastation “global warming”, we dilute people’s sense of urgency about this problem. It’s like referring to your flooded basement as an indoor swimming pool.

I propose we replace “warming” and “change” with “global climate disruption” or “climate chaos,” and work to convince the news media and political and business leaders to adopt the term. It’s an honest way of describing the problem, which avoids scaremongering but doesn’t leave us with a warm feeling deep inside about something that will cause large-scale human suffering."

- See more at: http://onthecommons.org/magazine/stop-climate-change-start-calling-it-different-name-0#sthash.w9TvtatF.dpuf
My "avatar" graphic is Japanese calligraphy (shodō) forming the word shoshin, meaning "beginner's mind". --  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin -- It is with shoshin that I am now and always "meeting my breath" for the first time. Try it!

Offline Surly1

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2014, 11:46:44 AM »
Saw this and thought of Eddie, although the pix of the Toothstead looked like they weren't suffering as much.

I have colleagues in Phoenix who are dealing with 111F temps already. And some co-workers headed there next week...

And note the last line of the article in re sea level rise . . .  :'(

American Southwest heating faster than rest of nation
Grist by John Upton


Stick a fork in the American Southwest. The ranches there are broiled.

Separate analyses published this week both found that the region has heated up more than any other in the U.S. in recent decades as global warming’s most prominent effect — warming — has taken hold. The first analysis came from Climate Central, which looked at summertime heat:



From Climate Central’s article:

    Nationwide, the summer warming trend averages out to a little more than 0.4°F per decade since 1970. The places warming the fastest also happen to be some of the hottest places in the country, with a large chunk of the Southwest and all of Texas warming more than 1°F per decade.

    The notable blue spot in a sea of red is the Upper Midwest, where substantial parts of Iowa and the Dakotas have seen a slight cooling trend since 1970. Interestingly, that region is actually home to some of the fastest-warming states when you look at the change in annual average temperatures. Winters in particular have warmed dramatically there over the past 40 years.

On that note, the AP analyzed average year-round temperatures, reaching these conclusions:

    The United States is warming fastest at two of its corners, in the Northeast and the Southwest, an analysis of federal temperature records shows. …

    The Southwest warming, especially in the summer, seems to be driven by dryness, because when there is little water the air and ground warm up faster, said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University in Lubbock.

    “Heat and drought are a vicious cycle that has been hitting the Southwest hard in recent years,” Hayhoe said.

    And in the Northeast, the temperatures are pushed up by milder winters and warm water in the North Atlantic, said Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. And less snow on the ground over the winter often means warmer temperatures, said Alan Betts, a climate scientist at Atmospheric Research in Pittsford, Vermont.

    The Southeast and Northwest were among the places that warmed the least. In the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, industrial sulfur particle pollutants from coal burning may be reflecting sunlight, thus countering heating caused by coal’s carbon dioxide emissions, said Pennsylvania State University professor Michael Mann.

Of course, warming isn’t the only impact that’s being felt from climate change. Another prominent impact is rising seas. And The Washington Post recently reported that high tides have risen by 1.5 feet during the past decade in Norfolk, Va., where water levels have been rising faster than anywhere else on the East Coast.
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Eddie

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2014, 01:25:53 PM »
It's been a mild spring here, but it's still very dry. It's rained about twice since the convo. I'm praying they are right about the el Nino. (Remember those pics were taken during the only rainy week we had for months and months.)
What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well.

Offline Surly1

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2014, 01:59:17 PM »
It's been a mild spring here, but it's still very dry. It's rained about twice since the convo. I'm praying they are right about the el Nino. (Remember those pics were taken during the only rainy week we had for months and months.)

I had forgotten. Looks lovely. Probably a little crisper now?

OTOH, we're still sinking . . .
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline Surly1

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El Niño is going to make your 2014 miserable
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2014, 09:13:35 AM »
El Niño is going to make your 2014 miserable
Scientists anticipate extreme weather patterns nationally and globally
Kevin Schultz, Scientific American




Unusual weather across the U.S. and other parts of the world just became more likely for this summer and autumn. That’s because the chances have gone up that El Niño—an atmospheric pattern driven by water temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean—will develop during that time, according to the nation’s leading climate experts. When El Niño settles in, it has major effects on weather conditions nationally and globally.

Scientists speaking at a press conference yesterday afternoon said the odds that El Niño will develop during the summer have risen from 65 to 70 percent. The prediction comes in a new monthly report from the U.S. National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. The experts also said there is up to an 80% chance that El Niño will develop during the fall and winter.

Regions across the U.S. that are normally wet can dry out during El Niño conditions, while normally dry regions can flood. Worldwide expectations related to El Niño are not always accurate, however. “There is an expectation of drought, but not in every single El Niño event do we actually have drought,” Lisa Goddard, director of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said during the briefing.

In fact, the majority of the continental U.S. has a higher chance of experiencing above-average precipitation in both summer and fall of El Niño years, according to data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In addition, data from Golden Gate Weather Services, a consultancy in California, show particularly increased amounts of precipitation for southern California in stronger El Niño years, which could potentially help drought-stricken areas there and in other parts of the U.S. Southwest.
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Regardless of the pros and cons, El Niño events could strengthen further as global warming continues, climate experts say. Two studies published within the last year generally support the conclusion that El Niño is increasing in intensity due to global warming, according to Kim Cobb, associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

How strong the 2014 El Niño will become is unclear. Gerald A. Meehl, senior scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics Division at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that if it does turn out to be strong, there could be a greater chance of a new record global average temperature in 2015.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2014, 09:15:24 AM by Surly1 »
"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline MKing

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2014, 09:19:30 AM »
One of the "thinking man issues" in the climate debate has been the "adjustments" made to raw temperature data...and then...interestingly....all of the excitement discusses the "post adjustment" results.....and those who don't think like a scientist just accept it...read the headlines...and move on...secure in the conclusions of others..without asking for a second about HOW these time series data were....manufactured. As any real scientist will tell you, as I am, there are perfectly valid reasons to adjust or calibrate data, or exclude outliers, within the data. And those need to be understood, lest such scientists make either basics mistakes in their thinking, call that the refuge of just poor scientists, or their deliberate misrepresentation of the work of others, which pegs them as shill advocacy groups, as I already demonstrated with David Hughes.

Here would be one example of how to make an outlier, as demonstrated by what passes for "climate change data collection".



A general discussion on this messiness can be found here:

http://reason.com/archives/2014/07/03/did-federal-climate-scientists-fudge-tem

and the specific effect I was thinking of is the first figure on this page:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/26/a-new-paper-comparing-ncdc-rural-and-urban-us-surface-temperature-data/

And this then brings us to others who have noticed. Scientists who do follow the breadcrumbs, and have begun collecting data properly, and then begin asking the kinds of questions that prove the lie in "the science is settled".

Beyond my normal scientific beef with people not understanding the natural variability in the system, prior to then modeling the noise within it, this issue hits at the heart of the very validity of the data sets used by those claiming all warming, all the time.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/06/25/government-data-show-u-s-in-decade-long-cooling/


It should also be pointed out that this exact same kind of problem disturbed Hubbert, so much so that back in the 1960's while working for the USGS he stopped the publication of a paper because he had not accounted for an effect he could see...knew was there..but hadn't quantified. The effect was field size appreciation, and he  developed his version of quantifying it while working for the USGS, published it in 1968, and it was applied to USGS estimates starting in 1975 I believe, and his idea to quantify this effect continued to be utilized by the USGS through the early to mid 90's.

I only mention this story because I spoke to Hubbert's last boss at the USGS a couple years ago, who has been working in industry for some time now, and his co-workers who have since retired from the USGS who were there when the decision was made. Hubbert KNEW his data was missing a correction, and took the time to substantiate it, prove it, right it up, and it was perfectly legitimate.

Versus what those do who have been compromised, or worse yet, do it because they BELIEVE and are just following the advice of Stephen Schneider.

It is nice to see that the kind of science I am comfortable with is beginning to ask the kind of questions that need answered before those who wish to sell a fear, have anything to sell a fear about.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline RE

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2014, 02:46:00 PM »
Regardless of what the absolute temperature of the atmosphere is, heat content of the oceans continues to rise.


I don't think NOAA has been fudging the data on this for 20 years, so I take it at face value.

The top 700m layer is what drives the atmospheric weather patterns.  This is where the energy comes from for Hurricanes and Tornados.  It's also bound to put a lot more water vapor into the atmosphere.  It's where it drops down, when and in what form that matters here.

Eddie hopes El Nino means more water for his Toothstead.  It won't make a difference this year for Lake Mead, since the water comes from the snowpack in the Rockies, which was light this year.

What we do know for sure is that many current growing regions around the world are either starved of water, or getting too much of it.  This plays havoc with the agricultural production in all these places.  It remains to be seen how this affects the total world food supply over the coming year and years.

Beyond the supply problem is the distribution problem.  With the global financial system in turmoil, what money will buy what food from what country is an open question as well.

All of these problems are interconnected, including of course the ongoing warfare in MENA and on the NATO-Russia border.

It remains to be seen exactly how it will play out, but things aren't looking too good at the moment.

RE
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Offline MKing

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2014, 04:59:18 PM »
Regardless of what the absolute temperature of the atmosphere is, heat content of the oceans continues to rise.


I don't think NOAA has been fudging the data on this for 20 years, so I take it at face value.

A good scientist takes nothing at face value, so certainly neither do I. And it isn't about "fudging", perfectly good scientists can be lulled into confirmation bias. This arises from two different ways of doing science…some study data to determine top level effects…some examine top level effects and go looking for what is causing them.

If you start with the known and completely reasonable premise that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and there is more of it across some timespan, then it is also reasonable to expect temperatures to rise in sync with it. Bing-Bang-Bong, its all that easy. Until some paleoclimatologist walks in the door and says…"yeah…but…" and then ZIP BANG the first guy has a problem. It then becomes a case of what geologists would call, "marrying your map".

Once you have staked out a position…say…Mann and the hockey stick, or Berman and shale wells…it becomes near professionally impossible to fight the other side..you've "married your map" and are now stuck with it.
 
Quote from: RE
All of these problems are interconnected, including of course the ongoing warfare in MENA and on the NATO-Russia border.

It remains to be seen exactly how it will play out, but things aren't looking too good at the moment.

RE

For some people things NEVER look good. Ever. Ever. Pick a year, anytime between the end of WWII and today, and it is possible to make your statement. Wars here, poverty there, Ehrlich's claims of starvation, Cold Wars, proxy wars, drought, unrest, political unhappiness, OMG WE CAN'T ALL OWN MCMANSIONS AND CORVETTES THE WORLD MUST BE ENDING!!!

How about this for an idea…the world will never be perfect…some people will never be happy…and those people will always use the parts of the world that aren't perfect to argue that the end is near. Forever.
Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
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Offline RE

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2014, 07:03:58 PM »
The latest data not looking too good here either.

RE

The Threat of Storms Wreaking Havoc in the Arctic Ocean

arctic_ice_and_deposits

Arctic sea ice extent is close to a record low for this time of the year, as the image below shows.

Furthermore, the current decline in sea ice extent is much steeper than it used to be for this time of the year, raising the specter of sea ice hitting an absolute record low later this year.

Moreover, a total collapse of sea ice may occur if storms continue to develop that push the remaining ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean.

 

The threat posed by storms is illustrated by the track projected to be followed by Hurricane Arthur over the next few days, as shown on above NOAA image.

The path followed by Hurricane Arthur is influenced by the current shape of the jet stream. As the animation below illustrates, the jet stream looks set to prevent Hurrican Arthur from moving to the east and instead make it move into the Labrador Sea to the west of Greenland and – partly due to the high mountains on Greenland – continue to wreak havoc in Baffin Bay further north.

[ Note: this animation is a 1.87 MB file that may take some time to fully load ]

Last month, the June heat record broke in Greenland. Very high temperatures are currently recorded all over North America, as the image below shows.

Furthermore, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic are currently very high, as the image below shows.

Finally, the sea ice is currently very thin, as shown by the Naval Research Laboratory animation below.

The above animation further shows that there now is very little sea ice left in Baffin Bay, making it easier for storms to cause very high waves that could enter the Arctic Ocean and break the sea ice north of Greenland and Canada.

Arctic sea ice volume minimum is typically reached around halfway into September. This is still months away, but the prospect of an El Niño event striking this year now is 90%, according to predictions by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.

All this combines into a growing threat that hydrates contained in sediments will destabilize and that huge quantities of methane will be released abruptly from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The risk that this will eventuate is intolerable and calls for parallel lines of action as pictured in the image below.

Source: Climate Plan
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Offline RE

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2014, 07:13:00 PM »
Alfred E. Newman MKing at it again here.




 ::) ::) ::)

RE
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Offline MKing

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2014, 08:59:37 PM »
Alfred E. Newman MKing at it again here.


Worried? Worried is a feeling, like fear or elation. It doesn't have much value in the world of physical science, and certainly doesn't mean diddly when it comes to recognizing that the earth has been in many climate configurations before, didn't require humans to get there, or get out, and would certainly get to all sorts of climate configurations again without any help from us. Or might do the same things because of us.

So feel free to waste time worrying, or being afraid, of things that have happened before, and might again, or how these changes might cause your lifestyle to flex sometime, in some way. It is just fear of change, and you are making fun of ME when your finger pointing is nothing more than a clear signal of what exactly YOU are afraid of. Change. Nothing more. Because tomorrow won't be exactly like today…OMG!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!

Sometimes one creates a dynamic impression by saying something, and sometimes one creates as significant an impression by remaining silent.
-Dalai Lama

Offline RE

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2014, 09:16:32 PM »
Worried? Worried is a feeling, like fear or elation. It doesn't have much value in the world of physical science, and certainly doesn't mean diddly when it comes to recognizing that the earth has been in many climate configurations before, didn't require humans to get there, or get out, and would certainly get to all sorts of climate configurations again without any help from us. Or might do the same things because of us.

So feel free to waste time worrying, or being afraid, of things that have happened before, and might again, or how these changes might cause your lifestyle to flex sometime, in some way. It is just fear of change, and you are making fun of ME when your finger pointing is nothing more than a clear signal of what exactly YOU are afraid of. Change. Nothing more. Because tomorrow won't be exactly like today…OMG!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!

Is there some refutation of the data here that I am missing?  Buehler?



Things change.  Civilizations collapse.  Species go extinct.  Wars happen all the time. The Chinese always threaten to pitch the Dollar.  Ukrainians are always shooting Russians.  Lake Mead is always running out of Water.  The Sun will surely run short of Hydrogen.

Nothing to see here folks, please move along.  ::)



RE
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Offline Surly1

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2014, 12:43:33 AM »
Alfred E. Newman MKing at it again here.


Worried? Worried is a feeling, like fear or elation. It doesn't have much value in the world of physical science, and certainly doesn't mean diddly when it comes to recognizing that the earth has been in many climate configurations before, didn't require humans to get there, or get out, and would certainly get to all sorts of climate configurations again without any help from us. Or might do the same things because of us.

So feel free to waste time worrying, or being afraid, of things that have happened before, and might again, or how these changes might cause your lifestyle to flex sometime, in some way. It is just fear of change, and you are making fun of ME when your finger pointing is nothing more than a clear signal of what exactly YOU are afraid of. Change. Nothing more. Because tomorrow won't be exactly like today…OMG!!!! THE END IS NIGH!!!!!

"I'm a physical scientist, or so I say. Climate change is a myth. Doomers suck. Blogging isn't "real work," like turning a wrench. Doomers suck. Awareness of climate issues is bad for my profits. Doomers suck. I can't write one thing without wrapping it in ad hom snark. Doomers suck."

I think that covers the oeuvre.

"Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world's grief. Do justly now, love mercy now, walk humbly now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it."

Offline RE

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2014, 01:08:13 AM »

"I'm a physical scientist, or so I say. Climate change is a myth. Doomers suck. Blogging isn't "real work," like turning a wrench. Doomers suck. Awareness of climate issues is bad for my profits. Doomers suck. I can't write one thing without wrapping it in ad hom snark. Doomers suck."

I think that covers the oeuvre.

No WAY!  You forgot the Macho Motorcycle cruises across the FSoA Interstate Highways and the Camping trips through every National Park, not to mention his ascension of K2 and Everest. arriving at Base Camp on his Energy Efficient Scooter!

RE
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Offline Randy C

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Re: Climate disruption? Climate chaos? Climate emergency? Which? What?
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2014, 01:30:39 PM »

"I'm a physical scientist, or so I say. Climate change is a myth. Doomers suck. Blogging isn't "real work," like turning a wrench. Doomers suck. Awareness of climate issues is bad for my profits. Doomers suck. I can't write one thing without wrapping it in ad hom snark. Doomers suck."

I think that covers the oeuvre.


No WAY!  You forgot the Macho Motorcycle cruises across the FSoA Interstate Highways and the Camping trips through every National Park, not to mention his ascension of K2 and Everest. arriving at Base Camp on his Energy Efficient Scooter!

RE

Surly1 and RE yet again score big points on being way too funny.....

You guys made my day... ;D

 

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